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The gender split is key – politicalbetting.com

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  • And IncorrectHorseBat bet his life on a Harris win today. Will we miss him?
    For a politicalbetting site, it’s a rock n roll way to go though. R.I.P.
    I’m still here. I’m very happy to say I was wrong.

    But at least I do. When was the last time you tried it?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Georgia now Trump 50.8%, Harris 48.0% with 89% in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    Jonathan said:

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    To be fair to Harris she ran a better campaign than Hillary, mentioned cost of living, Walz was on paper a good pick for middle America. Just Middle America has clearly decided it wants an authoritarian leader, I don't think there was anything she could do to stop it
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    NATO may well be dead.
    Isn't it dead already?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399

    Everything they said about Trump, from the contempt for democracy to the cult-like partisanship was just so much projection.
    I mean, that's bullshit, isn't it? However much you dislike Biden and Harris, the 'cult' around them is nothing like the cult around Trump.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,635
    Leon said:

    Thoughts and prayers for @MarqueeMark and @kinabalu

    Don’t forget Anabobazina too.
    Jonathan said:

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I said she was a shit candidate. I was right.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,840
    This is also - finally - the end of Woke
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    HYUFD said:

    Tories and Reform combined are ahead of Labour on the latest polls even here.

    I am not sure it automatically helps in France though, they don't like to follow France and rejected Le Pen in 2017 despite Trump's win in 2016
    Tories with Kemi Badenoch as leader aren't exactly in the populist category (even though the left would like to say so).
  • I’m still here. I’m very happy to say I was wrong.

    But at least I do. When was the last time you tried it?
    Well done Battery. Rooting for you.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Leon said:

    This is good news for Kemi B and the Tories, of course

    In what way? Surely better news for Farage.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited November 2024
    Leon said:

    Kamala is only just winning voters under 30. Biden won them by 20+

    I wonder Trump and Vance strategy of going on all those podcasts helped them? Where as Harris wouldn't even do an interview that lasted more than 10 mins.

    The bits I watched of Trump doing Rogan, if all you had been told was he was Orange Hitler you would have come away scratching your head going I don't understand. He talked nonsense on policy (but I doubt most people fully understand the economics of tariffs), but he was perfectly engaging when talking about things like MMA.
  • People will say someone else would have won. I am incredibly sceptical.

    Was it the economy all along?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    One thing about 'female voters' is that they may just be more organised and therefore likely to vote early? A bit of a gender stereotype but possibly a factor.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Trump up by over 6 million in the popular vote right now.

    That'll narrow when west coast comes in in a few minutes but still.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    NATO itself may be dead.
    Alternatives may have to be established.

    Europe cannot afford its current fiscal burden. Pushing defence budgets to 4% implies yet more austerity.

    Beyond that, much of Europe can’t really be relied upon.
    Britain and a few others will find itself shouldering much of the burden.
    Every European nation is going to have to increase some taxes and cut non defence spending if necessary until military spending across Europe is sufficient to contain Putin.

    There is no alternative, this is the most dangerous time in global politics since the 1930s and with a trade war coming to match
  • Taz said:

    Don’t forget Anabobazina too.
    Ah yes, Anabob is not going to have a good morning
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,840

    I wonder Trump and Vance going on all those podcasts helped them?
    Maybe this is the election won by Joe Rogan and Elon Musk

    Difficult to understate the importance of a liberated/rightwing TwitterX in all this
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    It appears a lot of American voters just don't like the idea of a female leader I'm sorry to say. Whereas we had Thatcher back in 1979.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    Leon said:

    This is good news for Kemi B and the Tories, of course

    To an extent, Hague and others did not want Trump to win.

    It is better news for Farage
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited November 2024

    People will say someone else would have won. I am incredibly sceptical.

    Was it the economy all along?

    The exit poll seems to point to people being very unhappy with the economy and Biden.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump up by over 6 million in the popular vote right now.

    That'll narrow when west coast comes in in a few minutes but still.

    The west coast could be much narrower than last time because of a lack of enthusiasm for Harris.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419

    Everything they said about Trump, from the contempt for democracy to the cult-like partisanship was just so much projection.
    Wait.

    So the fake electors scheme was just projection?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    GA is now likely to the left of NV according to NYT - something I did wonder might happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    Andy_JS said:

    It appears a lot of American voters just don't like the idea of a female leader I'm sorry to say. Whereas we had Thatcher back in 1979.

    They made Pelosi House speaker but some are clearly reticent about a woman president
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    People will say someone else would have won. I am incredibly sceptical.

    Was it the economy all along?

    It appears so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    Leon said:

    Maybe this is the election won by Joe Rogan and Elon Musk

    Difficult to understate the importance of a liberated/rightwing TwitterX in all this
    Most voters aren't on X
  • Honestly at this point if Trump wins the popular vote as well fair play. He won fair and square.

    Goodnight
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    HYUFD said:

    Every European nation is going to have to increase some taxes and cut non defence spending if necessary until military spending across Europe is sufficient to contain Putin.

    There is no alternative, this is the most dangerous time in global politics since the 1930s and with a trade war coming to match
    Your party criticises all tax rises
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Trump win%

    Betfair 96.2%
    Polymarket 93.1%
    NYT Needle 87%

    Need some clarity on PA.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump didn't actually do many things between 2016 and 2020, it was mostly all talk.
    He did a lot. Re-Negotiated NAFTA, Space Force, moved the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, menaced the NKoreans, gave Russia free rein, Afghanistan, etc. And in Term II will do a lot more.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited November 2024

    The west coast could be much narrower than last time because of a lack of enthusiasm for Harris.
    California is her home state so should boost her a little in the popular vote but Trump likely wins that too
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,840
    HYUFD said:

    Most voters aren't on X
    But the pundits and influencers and journalists are
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Leon said:

    This is also - finally - the end of Woke

    Yes, the end of trying to treat people equally, and the start of the smashing of the rights of minorities. And women...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Florida voters are voting FOR fuller abortion right, just NOT by required 60% super-majority.

    Only by 57% versus 43% landslide.
    Great news for the unborn babies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,840
    Trump campaign HQ celebrating - Fox News
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    NYT electoral college now 301-237
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Election day vote in a Dearborn precinct

    332 Trump
    293 Stein
    81 Harris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    Your party criticises all tax rises
    Sunak imposed some as did Hammond
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,635
    HYUFD said:

    To be fair to Harris she ran a better campaign than Hillary, it
    That’s not difficult though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,840

    Yes, the end of trying to treat people equally, and the start of the smashing of the rights of minorities. And women...
    Heh
  • Leon said:

    Maybe this is the election won by Joe Rogan and Elon Musk

    Difficult to understate the importance of a liberated/rightwing TwitterX in all this
    Something crazy like 100 millions views of Rogan interview with Trump across all platforms.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Yes, the end of trying to treat people equally, and the start of the smashing of the rights of minorities. And women...
    I suppose I’d better read Project 2025 now.

    Regarding minorities, it seems like the Latinos voted Trump with some enthusiasm. Turkeys voting for Christmas?
  • People will say someone else would have won. I am incredibly sceptical.

    Was it the economy all along?

    Possibly the most important decision:

    The administration moved to suspend Remain in Mexico on Mr Biden's first day in the White House in January 2021. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) moved to officially terminate the policy in June the same year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65574725
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited November 2024

    I wonder Trump and Vance strategy of going on all those podcasts helped them? Where as Harris wouldn't even do an interview that lasted more than 10 mins.

    The bits I watched of Trump doing Rogan, if all you had been told was he was Orange Hitler you would have come away scratching your head going I don't understand. He talked nonsense on policy (but I doubt most people fully understand the economics of tariffs), but he was perfectly engaging when talking about things like MMA.
    The Vance interview with Rogan was even better. He came across as just another middle American dude.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited November 2024

    Honestly at this point if Trump wins the popular vote as well fair play. He won fair and square.

    Goodnight

    Yes Americans can't complain or excuse the fact most of them likely voted for Trump this year unlike 2016. They own it and the consequences his victory may have for the global economy and security
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,635
    Washington and Oregon too early to call. Surely Harris has these in the bag.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited November 2024
    Taz said:

    Washington and Oregon too early to call. Surely Harris has these in the bag.

    If she doesn't win Oregon, well the world ain't round flat.....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited November 2024
    It looks like if Harris does somehow win the election it might be with a Trump popular vote win.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,840
    HYUFD said:

    To an extent, Hague and others did not want Trump to win.

    It is better news for Farage
    Hague has turned into a dreadful centrist globalist wanker

    Shame. I used to respect him
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    NYT electoral college now 301-237

    The future’s right, the future’s orange.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited November 2024
    California projected for Harris. Off to bed, looks like a second Trump win and another bumpy ride for America and the world for the next 4 years
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639
    Eesh this is depressing to wake up to. Has ummm... the needle ever been wrong?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075

    I’m still here. I’m very happy to say I was wrong.

    But at least I do. When was the last time you tried it?
    Well…

    Snorkelling sank without trace. ☹️
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Harris has managed to ship both Jewish and Muslim votes lol.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    HYUFD said:

    California projected for Harris

    It'll be interesting to see if there's a small but significant swing to Trump there.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639
    Andy_JS said:

    It looks like if Harris does somehow win the election it might be with a Trump popular vote win.

    That's my hopeful cover but probably good money after bad
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited November 2024
    Leon said:

    Hague has turned into a dreadful centrist globalist wanker

    Shame. I used to respect him
    I find his newspaper column in The Times almost impossible to read.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Sandpit said:

    The Vance interview with Rogan was even better. He came across as just another middle American dude.
    So Sandpit, what do you think Trump will do to help Ukraine?
  • Yes, the end of trying to treat people equally, and the start of the smashing of the rights of minorities. And women...
    A consensus has formed based on the male female voting split that women have too much power in western societies. This has to be addressed for the good of society.
    Also Putin will be waking up with a smile this morning. Much of Ukraine will now likely be handed to Russia and Ukraine will be reduced to a rump state. Its over for Zelensky.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Boston Globe headline.

    "No surprises yet in Harris-Trump race as US waits on swing states"

    https://www.bostonglobe.com
  • A consensus has formed based on the male female voting split that women have too much power in western societies. This has to be addressed for the good of society.
    Also Putin will be waking up with a smile this morning. Much of Ukraine will now likely be handed to Russia and Ukraine will be reduced to a rump state. Its over for Zelensky.
    Champagne corks popping in the Kremlin, comrade?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Pulpstar said:

    Harris has managed to ship both Jewish and Muslim votes lol.

    She got caught running different ads in different communities, now both groups voted against her. Will be interesting to see how many states had Jill Stein’s vote more than the gap to Trump.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    A consensus has formed based on the male female voting split that women have too much power in western societies. This has to be addressed for the good of society.
    Also Putin will be waking up with a smile this morning. Much of Ukraine will now likely be handed to Russia and Ukraine will be reduced to a rump state. Its over for Zelensky.
    Post 1 of how many?
  • Trump to sweep the popular vote too. He is now master of all he surveys and can go after his enemies.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    A consensus has formed based on the male female voting split that women have too much power in western societies. This has to be addressed for the good of society.
    Also Putin will be waking up with a smile this morning. Much of Ukraine will now likely be handed to Russia and Ukraine will be reduced to a rump state. Its over for Zelensky.
    Replacing a half-arsed policy that wasn't working with something much worse. Ugh.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    This is all wonderful news. I didn't go to bed when i said i would, I am up about 40% on the night, the party i wanted to win are winning, the banter era is back, and lots of people i quite dislike are coping and seething. Adieu.
  • Wonder when (if) Harris will concede. CNN suggesting Dems can still see a path in blue wall
  • RobD said:

    Post 1 of how many?
    Anotjer thing is the importance of free debate not dismissing people as russian trolls. That paves the way for Trump. Women and minorities are now in the firing line.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    Precinct in Michigan has Trump first, Stein second, Harris third.

    https://x.com/frankluntz/status/1854006962427764846
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    A consensus has formed based on the male female voting split that women have too much power in western societies. This has to be addressed for the good of society.
    Also Putin will be waking up with a smile this morning. Much of Ukraine will now likely be handed to Russia and Ukraine will be reduced to a rump state. Its over for Zelensky.
    The Russian bots have been emboldened.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Anotjer thing is the importance of free debate not dismissing people as russian trolls. That paves the way for Trump. Women and minorities are now in the firing line.
    But it sure is fun.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    DoctorG said:

    Wonder when (if) Harris will concede. CNN suggesting Dems can still see a path in blue wall

    It's the same 3 states they need: WI, PA, MI. They're not out of it in those yet.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Drutt said:

    This is all wonderful news. I didn't go to bed when i said i would, I am up about 40% on the night, the party i wanted to win are winning, the banter era is back, and lots of people i quite dislike are coping and seething. Adieu.

    Why do you see a Trump win as 'wonderful news' ?

    And as a matter of interest, which country do you call home?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    All seven key states are now lean Trump on NYC
  • Andy_JS said:

    It's the same 3 states they need: WI, PA, MI. They're not out of it in those yet.
    Have you seen the odds. Be my guest.
  • Fox calls Ohio Senate seat for Moreno
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .
  • The Russian bots have been emboldened.
    Western societies are in freefall now divided and mistrustful. Its all very sad.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075
    Andy_JS said:

    It's the same 3 states they need: WI, PA, MI. They're not out of it in those yet.
    That gets them to what? By my maths they also needed 1 sunbelt, Nevada looked the most hopeful.
  • Andy_JS said:

    It's the same 3 states they need: WI, PA, MI. They're not out of it in those yet.
    Can she afford to lose NV, AZ and NC?
  • That gets them to what? By my maths they also needed 1 sunbelt, Nevada looked the most hopeful.
    Lol keep dreaming. You guys are funny. Trump and Putin have big smiles now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited November 2024

    A consensus has formed based on the male female voting split that women have too much power in western societies. This has to be addressed for the good of society.
    Also Putin will be waking up with a smile this morning. Much of Ukraine will now likely be handed to Russia and Ukraine will be reduced to a rump state. Its over for Zelensky.
    It could be over for the western free market liberal world for the time being.

    Trump will match his America First isolationism abroad and heavy immigration restrictions with massive tariffs and protectionism on imports to the US backed by what is almost certain to be a GOP majority Congress now and also abortion will be further restricted. There will be a war on woke from Trump too which will delight Badenoch, though arguably that is more leftism than liberalism
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639
    Can someone link to nytimes popular vote estimate?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    rkrkrk said:

    Can someone link to nytimes popular vote estimate?

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html

    1.1% for Trump at the moment.
  • HYUFD said:

    It could be over for the western free market liberal world for the time being.

    Trump will match his America First isolationism with massive tariffs and protectionism on imports to the US
    Indeed. Russia will be emboldened. Starmer will be hung out to dry like the wet rag he is.
  • FYI, if Moreno has won OH, Republicans may be picking up 53-54 Senate seats. Of the 3 of WI, PA and MI, probably WI the most likely to flip
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    HYUFD said:

    It could be over for the western free market liberal world for the time being.

    Trump will match his America First isolationism with massive tariffs and protectionism on imports to the US
    Starmer needs to decide whether he tries to cosy up to Trump or tries to find other allies. I think Starmer's instincts, politics and professional history will be against Trump, and I can imagine Trump not liking Starmer, either.

    A very bad result for the UK.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Trump to get another round of applause in the Russian parliament like he did in 2016?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075

    Lol keep dreaming. You guys are funny. Trump and Putin have big smiles now.
    Well, they can smile away in hell for eternity then.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Western societies are in freefall now divided and mistrustful. Its all very sad.
    Could be worse, we could be Russia. Imagine how shitty it must be to have lost a nearly a million men, have no tanks left to deploy, and relying on a bunch of NorKs who have never seen an enemy and have been shooting more Russians than Ukranians?
  • I do believe young women went strongly for Trump. Abortion not the key isdue.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Starmer needs to decide whether he tries to cosy up to Trump or tries to find other allies. I think Starmer's instincts, politics and professional history will be against Trump, and I can imagine Trump not liking Starmer, either.

    A very bad result for the UK.
    The UK has been busy estranging itself from the global order since 2016. This is another nail in the coffin.
  • There is a desire in the west for a strong leader like Putin. Trump supplies this.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075

    Indeed. Russia will be emboldened. Starmer will be hung out to dry like the wet rag he is.
    Oh for Goodness sake HY - you arn’t supposed to give the PootBot likes. 🙄
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
  • PA back to toss-up from lean R
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    PA back to a toss up according to NYT.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Pulpstar said:

    PA back to a toss up according to NYT.

    And they’ve finally called NC
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Pulpstar said:

    PA back to a toss up according to NYT.

    I was surprised they put it in lean Rep.
This discussion has been closed.