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The gender split is key – politicalbetting.com

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,277
    New York City has lowest Democrat % since 1988 apparently - 67.8%
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Two more results of a (likely) Trump win:

    1. We will get a proper investigation of the sassytempts on Trump himself

    2. We will get a proper investigative of the origins of Covid. And the cover up thereof. I wouldn’t like to be Fauci, Collins, Daszak, Jeremy Farrar et al
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    https://x.com/jacquiheinrich/status/1854021787488596451

    Three sources close to Harris are expressing concern that Harris’ path to victory may be too narrow to overcome.

    I believe the expression goes events have transpired not necessarily to her advantage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983

    New York City has lowest Democrat % since 1988 apparently - 67.8%

    Staten Island a big win for Trump ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,611
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dana Bash on CNN is almost in tears.

    Who can blame her? Having her country elect a deranged old fool who has threatened to be a dictator is not good.

    Venezuela did something similar with Chavez and it’s been a disaster.
    It was very avoidable if they'd just taken some basic steps to dampen down the appeal of Trump and people like him.

    For example Thatcher's government was mostly full of old-school paternalists like Geoffrey Howe and Douglas Hurd, the very opposite of populist, but despite that she managed to make the far-right disappear almost completely by saying and doing a few things to satisfy people on the populist front.
    More that, like the governments of Mitterrand & Kohl, she had a plan based on confidence in her country.

    Leadership, I think they call it.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,735
    kle4 said:

    Checking some more prolific accounts many haven't tweeted in 3 hours, I think many are in shock - always unclear whether people are spinning or believing, but I think it's the latter with many, it's not a shock to those following the polls (though we'd hoped they would fall on the positive side) but despite knowing it was close these really thought they had it.

    I get the shock. This could be an inflection point. Voters have ignored the warnings from the people best qualified to assess Trump's fitness for office. Meanwhile, the people around Trump really are the worst of the worst - gruesome and cynical opportunists whooping it up.

    Who cares? Well, the fact that the "indispensible" nation, the backstop for democracy and liberal values, is going for a preening narcissist who is so obviously unfit, is potentially devastating for the West.

    Ah, well. Off to bed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,031
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    I had assumed a close but clear Harris win.
    Which has kept me cheery these past few weeks, while others fretted.

    I’m shocked, embarrassed, depressed and vaguely nauseous. God only knows how actual Democratic voters feel.

    Why be “embarrassed”?!

    You’re not American. Also a vote for Trump is quite logical and even moral - depending on what issues really matter to you

    You can disagree with that; but voting Trump is not an evil act per se
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390
    While everyone is paying attention to the President and Senate races, the House is much closer and could even go Democrat.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    Leon said:

    Two more results of a (likely) Trump win:

    1. We will get a proper investigation of the sassytempts on Trump himself

    2. We will get a proper investigative of the origins of Covid. And the cover up thereof. I wouldn’t like to be Fauci, Collins, Daszak, Jeremy Farrar et al

    Does 'proper investigation' mean 'an investigation whose results I know I shall like, as it its results are predetermined' ?
    Hopefully. Heh
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Further proof of my theory that big event crowds don't mean anything at all. Americans love them but they may need a rethink.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    The whole de-fund the police fiasco is also to blame for this result imo.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
    Yes. Shameful scenes

    @MarqueeMark was the most ridiculous cheer leader
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not telling Biden to retire earlier when it was obvious he was too elderly was a huge mistake. It was bad for him and bad for everyone else.

    Biden is a jerk.

    He promised to be a bridge to the next generation, and then failed to make any provision to do so,

    He could have pushed Kamala to the Supreme Court, found a more papabile candidate, and then allowed them to postion themselves through 23/24.
    Some of us were saying this two years ago. Biden is senile, it’s getting worse, if the Dems don’t replace him it will end in disaster

    And yet half of PB was saying “he just has a stammer”, “he likes falling over”, “his favourite pastime is drooling there’s no change”
    What was your take on Donald Trump missing the door on his garbage truck stunt the other day? Bad eyesight?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14025391/video-Donald-Trump-garbage-truck-conspiracy.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
    She did try to reach out, tried to move to the centre on the border etc. Clearly it didn't cut through.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    Times writer Edward Lucas called it right.

    "Why independent voters are turning to Trump
    On the ground in Pennsylvania, the Harris campaign comes across as weak and out of touch
    Edward Lucas"

    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/why-independent-voters-are-turning-to-trump-b30ncthnj
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,288
    One interesting thought.

    Until now Ukraine has been held in check by the threat of the Biden administration reducing support if Ukraine used its weapons directly against targets in Russia. Given that under Trump they are likely to lose that support anyway, might we now see them decide to attack Russia directly?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not telling Biden to retire earlier when it was obvious he was too elderly was a huge mistake. It was bad for him and bad for everyone else.

    Biden is a jerk.

    He promised to be a bridge to the next generation, and then failed to make any provision to do so,

    He could have pushed Kamala to the Supreme Court, found a more papabile candidate, and then allowed them to postion themselves through 23/24.
    Some of us were saying this two years ago. Biden is senile, it’s getting worse, if the Dems don’t replace him it will end in disaster

    And yet half of PB was saying “he just has a stammer”, “he likes falling over”, “his favourite pastime is drooling there’s no change”
    What was your take on Donald Trump missing the door on his garbage truck stunt the other day? Bad eyesight?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14025391/video-Donald-Trump-garbage-truck-conspiracy.html
    I’ve said multiple times that Trump is also now showing obvious signs of cognitive decline but

    1. It’s not as bad as Biden yet
    2. It’s arrived much later
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Sandpit said:

    While everyone is paying attention to the President and Senate races, the House is much closer and could even go Democrat.

    Oh, well that's alright then.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    edited November 6
    It's encouraging that Trump hasn't come out and spoken yet - even though it's obvious he has won.

    Maybe he'll surprise us and be a bit magnanimous.

    I think he is also more likely to moderate some of his policies / behaviour if he wins comfortably rather than very narrowly after a big fight.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,031
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
    Yes. Shameful scenes

    @MarqueeMark was the most ridiculous cheer leader
    Anyone who posted anything like a pro Trump analysis was shouted down or accused of being a Trump supporter.

    Focused far too much on the man rather than the ball.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,288
    A question.

    I know the Presidential handover is in January. When do Congress start the new term?

    What scope for action does Biden still have between now and January assuming the current Congress are amenable?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292

    A question.

    I know the Presidential handover is in January. When do Congress start the new term?

    What scope for action does Biden still have between now and January assuming the current Congress are amenable?

    3rd January I think, compared to 20th for president.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    MikeL said:

    It's encouraging that Trump hasn't come out and spoken yet - ebven though obvious he has won.

    Maybe he'll surprise us and be a bit magnaminous.

    I think he is also more likely to moderate some of his policies / behaviour if he wins comfortably rather than very narrowly after a big fight.

    I believe you might have missed the past 50 years of Trump.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,031
    Jeez. I am significantly down for the evening. Not a good night of betting for me. Particularly in the PV where I was on Harris at short odds.

    Still, comfortably up for the year, so all is not lost.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,031

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
    Yes. Shameful scenes

    @MarqueeMark was the most ridiculous cheer leader
    Anyone who posted anything like a pro Trump analysis was shouted down or accused of being a Trump supporter.

    Focused far too much on the man rather than the ball.
    It's perfectly possible to post pro-Trump stuff and maintain the vestiges of being neutral. They did not.

    It is particularly egregious amongst those who fly the Ukrainian flag as their avatar - a country their shilling has betrayed.
    Absolute bollocks.

    You were one of the worst offenders.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not telling Biden to retire earlier when it was obvious he was too elderly was a huge mistake. It was bad for him and bad for everyone else.

    Biden is a jerk.

    He promised to be a bridge to the next generation, and then failed to make any provision to do so,

    He could have pushed Kamala to the Supreme Court, found a more papabile candidate, and then allowed them to postion themselves through 23/24.
    Some of us were saying this two years ago. Biden is senile, it’s getting worse, if the Dems don’t replace him it will end in disaster

    And yet half of PB was saying “he just has a stammer”, “he likes falling over”, “his favourite pastime is drooling there’s no change”
    What was your take on Donald Trump missing the door on his garbage truck stunt the other day? Bad eyesight?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14025391/video-Donald-Trump-garbage-truck-conspiracy.html
    I’ve said multiple times that Trump is also now showing obvious signs of cognitive decline but

    1. It’s not as bad as Biden yet
    2. It’s arrived much later
    How does he last 4 years though? Biden was not like that at this stage.

    Yes he can manage his schedule better than during a campaign, but still.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    All the commentators now saying Harris should have picked Shapiro instead of Walz.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,249

    A question.

    I know the Presidential handover is in January. When do Congress start the new term?

    What scope for action does Biden still have between now and January assuming the current Congress are amenable?

    I fear there are going to be a lot of lawsuits thrown at Biden, Harris and the wider top Democratic leadership. Enough to distract and gum up the works of government. The start of the vengeance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    The person I feel sorry for is Grover Cleveland.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    This is a problem with these podcasts lineups when its all people with the same views, they now have no idea why.

    Its sexism, racism, its Musk lying, ....
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 883
    edited November 6
    kle4 said:

    The person I feel sorry for is Grover Cleveland.

    Well I think he won the PV in all 3 elections?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,710

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    If Rory Stewart spoke with a regional accent rather than a clipped Eton one, no one would even know who he is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Biden could phone Georgia and ask if they can find some votes? Worth a shot?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,144
    Andy_JS said:

    All the commentators now saying Harris should have picked Shapiro instead of Walz.

    Harris was never a great candidate. I doubt Shapiro instead of Walz would have made any difference.

    Shapiro instead of Harris, maybe.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390
    DecisionDesk has the House projection 220-215 in favour of the Democrats.

    https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/US-House/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    kle4 said:

    The person I feel sorry for is Grover Cleveland.

    Well I think in won the PV in all 3 elections?
    Still has that, but the main distinction he had is now gone.
  • Jeez. I am significantly down for the evening. Not a good night of betting for me. Particularly in the PV where I was on Harris at short odds.

    Still, comfortably up for the year, so all is not lost.

    PV might take a while to settle as CA slow to report?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,288

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
    Yes. Shameful scenes

    @MarqueeMark was the most ridiculous cheer leader
    Anyone who posted anything like a pro Trump analysis was shouted down or accused of being a Trump supporter.

    Focused far too much on the man rather than the ball.
    It's perfectly possible to post pro-Trump stuff and maintain the vestiges of being neutral. They did not.

    It is particularly egregious amongst those who fly the Ukrainian flag as their avatar - a country their shilling has betrayed.
    Absolute bollocks.

    You were one of the worst offenders.
    I would suggest you wait and see to what extent Trump betrays Ukraine before you start your gloating and vendettas.

    I see no reason at present to change my view that he will be disastrous for world security in general and Ukraine in particular.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Bucks county gone red. Nails in coffin time
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,031

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    It's probably the end of him as a serious pundit on US politics.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599
    Andy_JS said:

    All the commentators now saying Harris should have picked Shapiro instead of Walz.

    More like Biden should have picked Mayor Pete instead of Kamala.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Andy_JS said:

    All the commentators now saying Harris should have picked Shapiro instead of Walz.

    Yep, though she's not particularly outperformed in MN
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    It's probably the end of him as a serious pundit on US politics.
    We thought numerous times Prof Peston had lost all credibility, but there he is still all over our screens...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    This is a problem with these podcasts lineups when its all people with the same views, they now have no idea why.

    Its sexism, racism, its Musk lying, ....
    All could be factors, but i doubt sufficiently explain it, in terms of sweeping or nearly sweeping the swing states.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,288
    Andy_JS said:

    A question.

    I know the Presidential handover is in January. When do Congress start the new term?

    What scope for action does Biden still have between now and January assuming the current Congress are amenable?

    3rd January I think, compared to 20th for president.
    Cheers Andy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,031

    Jeez. I am significantly down for the evening. Not a good night of betting for me. Particularly in the PV where I was on Harris at short odds.

    Still, comfortably up for the year, so all is not lost.

    PV might take a while to settle as CA slow to report?
    Strangely, my only hope now is that Harris somehow sneaks the EC whilst losing the PV.

    Which is vanishingly unlikely. Trump is clearly going to win both.

    Not sure by how much on the latter, but he will.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,710

    One interesting thought.

    Until now Ukraine has been held in check by the threat of the Biden administration reducing support if Ukraine used its weapons directly against targets in Russia. Given that under Trump they are likely to lose that support anyway, might we now see them decide to attack Russia directly?

    I didn’t post last night because I knew I’d get accused of the same old nonsense. But there was a story yesterday that the White House is dragging its feet on allowing the Swedes to donate its AWACS.

    It’s quite unclear how much this election is really going to affect things for Ukraine. Sullivan (for it is he not Biden now surely) has the chance to release billions of dollars of sophisticated kit in the next 2 months. Let’s see if he does…
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    I had assumed a close but clear Harris win.
    Which has kept me cheery these past few weeks, while others fretted.

    I’m shocked, embarrassed, depressed and vaguely nauseous. God only knows how actual Democratic voters feel.

    I had assumed a close but clear Harris win.
    Which has kept me cheery these past few weeks, while others fretted.

    I’m shocked, embarrassed, depressed and vaguely nauseous. God only knows how actual Democratic voters feel.

    I had assumed a close but clear Harris win.
    Which has kept me cheery these past few weeks, while others fretted.

    I’m shocked, embarrassed, depressed and vaguely nauseous. God only knows how actual Democratic voters feel.

    Ditto. Lived here 32 years and clearly still don’t understand it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    edited November 6
    Sexism or racism may or may not have been determinative (id say not), but I bet the Dems go for a white guy next time just to be safe.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Well, that sucks. But my prediction (albeit it rather a weak one) of a Trump victory was right. However, I’m glad I stayed out of this market full stop. I hope some PBers made money. Now for some sleep.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,031

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
    Yes. Shameful scenes

    @MarqueeMark was the most ridiculous cheer leader
    Anyone who posted anything like a pro Trump analysis was shouted down or accused of being a Trump supporter.

    Focused far too much on the man rather than the ball.
    It's perfectly possible to post pro-Trump stuff and maintain the vestiges of being neutral. They did not.

    It is particularly egregious amongst those who fly the Ukrainian flag as their avatar - a country their shilling has betrayed.
    Absolute bollocks.

    You were one of the worst offenders.
    I would suggest you wait and see to what extent Trump betrays Ukraine before you start your gloating and vendettas.

    I see no reason at present to change my view that he will be disastrous for world security in general and Ukraine in particular.
    I agree on Ukraine but, again, you fall into the trap of insinuating anyone who might go for Trump must be a secret Putinista admirer of him, who must be condemned.

    It's this sort of shit that silenced or suppressed voices on here and has cost a lot of people money tonight.

    Shame on you.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,249

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
    Yes. Shameful scenes

    @MarqueeMark was the most ridiculous cheer leader
    Anyone who posted anything like a pro Trump analysis was shouted down or accused of being a Trump supporter.

    Focused far too much on the man rather than the ball.
    It's perfectly possible to post pro-Trump stuff and maintain the vestiges of being neutral. They did not.

    It is particularly egregious amongst those who fly the Ukrainian flag as their avatar - a country their shilling has betrayed.
    Absolute bollocks.

    You were one of the worst offenders.
    "Offenders" for pointing out the truth?

    If you only ever post one side, you cannot pretend to be neutral. If some of your posts are untruths breathlessly painted as the truth, you cannot pretend to be neutral.

    I'd argue there were some such on the Harris side of that, and I doubt they'd deny it. But there were definitely some on the Trump side as well. Except they mostly did not say what they really wanted.

    This was particularly egregious when they pretended to care about Ukraine as well, yet would not state how a Trump government would help Ukraine.

    As I've said all along, you cannot support Trump and Ukraine. Although I now really, really hope I'm wrong about that, and Trump volte-faces and helps Ukraine.

    Yeah, right.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    kle4 said:

    Sexism or racism may or may not have been determinative (id say not), but I bet the Dems go for a white guy next time just to be safe.

    They'll probably do that and then lose to the American Kemi Badenoch.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,144

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    This is a problem with these podcasts lineups when its all people with the same views, they now have no idea why.

    Its sexism, racism, its Musk lying, ....
    Sexism, racism and Musk lying could easily be worth a couple of percent each to Trump, couldn't they?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,175
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
    Yes. Shameful scenes

    @MarqueeMark was the most ridiculous cheer leader
    I did argue that Georgia was never in the bag for Harris.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    kle4 said:

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    This is a problem with these podcasts lineups when its all people with the same views, they now have no idea why.

    Its sexism, racism, its Musk lying, ....
    All could be factors, but i doubt sufficiently explain it, in terms of sweeping or nearly sweeping the swing states.
    The exit poll was quite clear economy (i think specifically was inflation) and Biden had terrible approval ratings....bit hard to overcome that when you are the incumbent.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    CNN still crunching the numbers.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,031

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
    Yes. Shameful scenes

    @MarqueeMark was the most ridiculous cheer leader
    Anyone who posted anything like a pro Trump analysis was shouted down or accused of being a Trump supporter.

    Focused far too much on the man rather than the ball.
    It's perfectly possible to post pro-Trump stuff and maintain the vestiges of being neutral. They did not.

    It is particularly egregious amongst those who fly the Ukrainian flag as their avatar - a country their shilling has betrayed.
    Absolute bollocks.

    You were one of the worst offenders.
    "Offenders" for pointing out the truth?

    If you only ever post one side, you cannot pretend to be neutral. If some of your posts are untruths breathlessly painted as the truth, you cannot pretend to be neutral.

    I'd argue there were some such on the Harris side of that, and I doubt they'd deny it. But there were definitely some on the Trump side as well. Except they mostly did not say what they really wanted.

    This was particularly egregious when they pretended to care about Ukraine as well, yet would not state how a Trump government would help Ukraine.

    As I've said all along, you cannot support Trump and Ukraine. Although I now really, really hope I'm wrong about that, and Trump volte-faces and helps Ukraine.

    Yeah, right.
    Except this election wasn't about Ukraine in the US, was it?

    That's what we were most concerned about. But not American voters.

    Your problem is you couldn't separate the two things.

    Nor could many others.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    It's probably the end of him as a serious pundit on US politics.
    Are there any serious British voices when it comes to US politics?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,710

    Andy_JS said:

    All the commentators now saying Harris should have picked Shapiro instead of Walz.

    More like Biden should have picked Mayor Pete instead of Kamala.
    I am looking forward to the inside story of how the hell she ended up being endorsed by Biden’s Twitter account the night he stood down. It clearly wasn’t Obama and Pelosi’s plan and was the moment the election was blown. An historic contested convention to choose the candidate would have been watched by every swing voter in America. And would have allowed the blues to go for someone new, in what was already shaping up to be a change election.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,249

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
    Yes. Shameful scenes

    @MarqueeMark was the most ridiculous cheer leader
    Anyone who posted anything like a pro Trump analysis was shouted down or accused of being a Trump supporter.

    Focused far too much on the man rather than the ball.
    It's perfectly possible to post pro-Trump stuff and maintain the vestiges of being neutral. They did not.

    It is particularly egregious amongst those who fly the Ukrainian flag as their avatar - a country their shilling has betrayed.
    Absolute bollocks.

    You were one of the worst offenders.
    I would suggest you wait and see to what extent Trump betrays Ukraine before you start your gloating and vendettas.

    I see no reason at present to change my view that he will be disastrous for world security in general and Ukraine in particular.
    I agree on Ukraine but, again, you fall into the trap of insinuating anyone who might go for Trump must be a secret Putinista admirer of him, who must be condemned.

    It's this sort of shit that silenced or suppressed voices on here and has cost a lot of people money tonight.

    Shame on you.
    It's impossible to support Ukraine and Trump. Trump has made his position on Ukraine very clear, both in his first presidency and since. It is not a supportive position.

    If you care about Ukraine, you cannot support Trump. If you disagree, tell me how Trump will 'help' Ukraine?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    So when does Biden start moaning this is because he was dumped as the nominee? Not that he looked like having a shot, but it's tradition for those ousted to believe they'd have done better.
  • kle4 said:

    Biden could phone Georgia and ask if they can find some votes? Worth a shot?

    The country or the state?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,175
    As so often, Sean Trende was correct, that Walz brought nothing to the Democratic campaign.

    A liberal candidate should be balanced by a Conservative VP.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    kle4 said:

    So when does Biden start moaning this is because he was dumped as the nominee? Not that he looked like having a shot, but it's tradition for those ousted to believe they'd have done better.

    He’ll be told by his handlers that he won.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,710
    Sandpit said:

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    It's probably the end of him as a serious pundit on US politics.
    Are there any serious British voices when it comes to US politics?
    I know it’s an extraordinary thing to hear by British ears but Piers Morgan would surely lay claim to that title.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    So when does Biden start moaning this is because he was dumped as the nominee? Not that he looked like having a shot, but it's tradition for those ousted to believe they'd have done better.

    He’ll be told by his handlers that he won.
    It was Joe wot won it (with his MAGA hat).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    kle4 said:

    Biden could phone Georgia and ask if they can find some votes? Worth a shot?

    The country or the state?
    Depends if he makes the call personally.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    I fear that the left in America will react to this in exactly the wrong way, which is to say by becoming very angry, bitter and authoritarian. The only real point of the left in any country is that they try to be nice people. If they give up on that, there's not much point.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,249

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Trump is actually going to win this quite easily

    The Harris campaign sucked. If all you have is calling your opponent a fascist , you don’t have much. I completely missed the big theme attracting voters to her. Walz was a dead weight.
    I think virtually everyone did on here. The shilling for Harris was off the charts, as was the sneering at Trump or Trump supporters, and massively affected the betting.
    Yes. Shameful scenes

    @MarqueeMark was the most ridiculous cheer leader
    Anyone who posted anything like a pro Trump analysis was shouted down or accused of being a Trump supporter.

    Focused far too much on the man rather than the ball.
    It's perfectly possible to post pro-Trump stuff and maintain the vestiges of being neutral. They did not.

    It is particularly egregious amongst those who fly the Ukrainian flag as their avatar - a country their shilling has betrayed.
    Absolute bollocks.

    You were one of the worst offenders.
    "Offenders" for pointing out the truth?

    If you only ever post one side, you cannot pretend to be neutral. If some of your posts are untruths breathlessly painted as the truth, you cannot pretend to be neutral.

    I'd argue there were some such on the Harris side of that, and I doubt they'd deny it. But there were definitely some on the Trump side as well. Except they mostly did not say what they really wanted.

    This was particularly egregious when they pretended to care about Ukraine as well, yet would not state how a Trump government would help Ukraine.

    As I've said all along, you cannot support Trump and Ukraine. Although I now really, really hope I'm wrong about that, and Trump volte-faces and helps Ukraine.

    Yeah, right.
    Except this election wasn't about Ukraine in the US, was it?

    That's what we were most concerned about. But not American voters.

    Your problem is you couldn't separate the two things.

    Nor could many others.
    Because I, as an Englishman, care about Ukraine. I also care about security, both of our own and the world. I care about the economy, both our own, and of the world. I care about the rights of myself and others, who are not like me.

    On all these points, Trump winning is bad for America and the world. You are a white Englishman, capable of working anywhere in the world, You will probably be least affected by a Trump win.

    Sadly, it appears the great American public disagree. But you did not know that any more than I did.
  • Andy_JS said:

    CNN still crunching the numbers.

    It's just desperate. :(
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,175
    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    It's probably the end of him as a serious pundit on US politics.
    Are there any serious British voices when it comes to US politics?
    I know it’s an extraordinary thing to hear by British ears but Piers Morgan would surely lay claim to that title.
    Well, he probably would, but whether anyone would agree with him is another question.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Sandpit said:

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    It's probably the end of him as a serious pundit on US politics.
    Are there any serious British voices when it comes to US politics?
    Farage...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Now rest is politics is now making it is Trans issue....especially among black people...wot lost it...shakes head.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Sean_F said:

    As so often, Sean Trende was correct, that Walz brought nothing to the Democratic campaign.

    A liberal candidate should be balanced by a Conservative VP.

    Seemed like a nice enough guy, but I didn't see much shared about him after the opening splash, just a handful of clips, but I'm not sure how big an impact VP nominees usually make.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,249
    TimT said:

    I had assumed a close but clear Harris win.
    Which has kept me cheery these past few weeks, while others fretted.

    I’m shocked, embarrassed, depressed and vaguely nauseous. God only knows how actual Democratic voters feel.

    I had assumed a close but clear Harris win.
    Which has kept me cheery these past few weeks, while others fretted.

    I’m shocked, embarrassed, depressed and vaguely nauseous. God only knows how actual Democratic voters feel.

    I had assumed a close but clear Harris win.
    Which has kept me cheery these past few weeks, while others fretted.

    I’m shocked, embarrassed, depressed and vaguely nauseous. God only knows how actual Democratic voters feel.

    Ditto. Lived here 32 years and clearly still don’t understand it
    Welcome back TimT. I haven't seen you on here for a while, I think?

    You have been missed.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,327
    I slept through the action but have to say that I am cautiously optimistic this morning. As much as people say that the situation will be catastrophic for Ukraine I don't believe it, the situation looks catastrophic to me at the moment and my instinct is that it is more likely that a solution will be found with Trump as president. I have been posting about this for a year or so, and no one has provided me with any persuasive analysis that demonstrates the existing trajectory leads to anything other than a very slow, gradual and expensive defeat. Instead the discussion about this is largely just a stream of propoganda, which is quite sad really.

    The concern that I have is that European countries failed to foresee the election of Trump despite all the signs pointing that way, which has created an avoidable diplomatic problem. Why did politicians project all their hopes in a democrat victory with such a weak candidate and a weak team and a track record of decline, disinterest and failure? How is Starmer going to deal with this given that the Labour party have created its own conflict with Trump and Musk? Can things be resolved going forward in a context where so many of its MP's and supporters are likely to be irreconcilable to the outcome of the US election? Where do they think they will look instead?

    I think you have to just be hopeful that things work out.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390

    Now rest is politics is now making it is Trans issue....especially among black people...wot lost it...shakes head.

    Quote I just saw on Twitter but can’t find again. “Democrats are just realising that women buy eggs and bread more often than they have abortions”.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Wait. OMG

    BREAKINGGGGG

    I think I have found Tabasco in Central Seoul
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Andy_JS said:

    I fear that the left in America will react to this in exactly the wrong way, which is to say by becoming very angry, bitter and authoritarian. The only real point of the left in any country is that they try to be nice people. If they give up on that, there's not much point.

    I suspect some at least will try Trump esque tactics of legal challenges and extreme crudeness. It works, they will say. Yes there was more to it, but the temptation to strop will be there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rest is politics mob look like they are going to have a collective breakdown. Its all cos of sexism and racism....

    Rory Stewart: "If she was winning, we'd have a good answer for why she was winning."
    It's probably the end of him as a serious pundit on US politics.
    Are there any serious British voices when it comes to US politics?
    Farage...
    Future UK ambassador to the USA Farage.

    Just kidding, he gets on with Trump but clearly wouldn't be willing to do what the government would want of its diplomats.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Sandpit said:

    Now rest is politics is now making it is Trans issue....especially among black people...wot lost it...shakes head.

    Quote I just saw on Twitter but can’t find again. “Democrats are just realising that women buy eggs and bread more often than they have abortions”.
    Also, women don’t like being raped by illegal immigrants

    The same dynamic that is driving populist hard right votes in Europe and which will do the same in the UK eventually
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    edited November 6
    Another point is that someone as rude and vulgar as Trump couldn't possibly have won an election 20 or 30 years ago. Maybe that means a lot of the voting public have also moved in that direction, because voters get the leaders they deserve in a democracy.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,249
    Sandpit said:

    Now rest is politics is now making it is Trans issue....especially among black people...wot lost it...shakes head.

    Quote I just saw on Twitter but can’t find again. “Democrats are just realising that women buy eggs and bread more often than they have abortions”.
    But not being able to have an abortion can stop them buying bread and eggs.

    For ever.

    You do realise your argument could be used by proponents of a total ban on abortion? That it doesn't matter?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    Andy_JS said:

    Another point is that someone as rude and vulgar as Trump couldn't possibly have won an election 20 or 30 years ago. Maybe that means a lot of the voting public have also moved in that direction, because voters get the leaders they deserve in a democracy.

    Loud, arrogant and self opinionated....no, Americans never had thay reputation....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    Now rest is politics is now making it is Trans issue....especially among black people...wot lost it...shakes head.

    Could be some ugly comments if black and Latino voters 'let down' the Democrats.

    Of course it was known Trump was doing better there, the hope was Harris was doing better with white people, which if she was it wasn't by much.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599
    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    All the commentators now saying Harris should have picked Shapiro instead of Walz.

    More like Biden should have picked Mayor Pete instead of Kamala.
    I am looking forward to the inside story of how the hell she ended up being endorsed by Biden’s Twitter account the night he stood down. It clearly wasn’t Obama and Pelosi’s plan and was the moment the election was blown. An historic contested convention to choose the candidate would have been watched by every swing voter in America. And would have allowed the blues to go for someone new, in what was already shaping up to be a change election.
    Part of the problem was the timetable. There was not the time for a full-blown primary campaign so the VP was the obvious choice. There might also have been an element of Biden tuning out once forced to withdraw. If it had been planned, then the obvious plan would have been for Biden to step down last year so that Kamala would have been President already going into the campaign.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,175
    edited November 6
    Sandpit said:

    Now rest is politics is now making it is Trans issue....especially among black people...wot lost it...shakes head.

    Quote I just saw on Twitter but can’t find again. “Democrats are just realising that women buy eggs and bread more often than they have abortions”.
    There was tendency to think that abortion is the only issue that women vote on - or ought to vote on.

    Putting abortion separately onto ballots drove home that pro-choice right wing voters could vote to protect abortion rights, and vote Trump as well.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,580
    Andy_JS said:

    Another point is that someone as rude and vulgar as Trump couldn't possibly have won an election 20 or 30 years ago. Maybe that means a lot of the voting public have also moved in that direction, because voters get the leaders they deserve in a democracy.

    Class seems to be an important factor in both uk and us politics.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Andy_JS said:

    Another point is that someone as rude and vulgar as Trump couldn't possibly have won an election 20 or 30 years ago. Maybe that means a lot of the voting public have also moved in that direction, because voters get the leaders they deserve in a democracy.

    True leaders shape opinion as well as react to it. I hate the impact Trump has had but he really has been a leader for their politics, not just riding a wave. He's redefined what's acceptable and even his lackeys cannot pull off the same.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Awkward, Sacramucci made a joke about do we need a suicide counsellor.....
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