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The gender split is key – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    PA back to lean-R.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,288

    nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
    No. It depends on whether Trump pursues policies that promote division and persecute those on the losing side. Division won't come from the result, it will come from what the winner does with that result.
  • PA back to toss-up from lean R

    Its 1/10. Fill your boots. Really this forum is not representative of the uk publich who desire a strong leader like Putin. Democracy is teetering.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PA back to a toss up according to NYT.

    I was surprised they put it in lean Rep.
    Now lean Trump again :p
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,959
    If, as looks likely though not certain, Trump has won, I think three things cost the Democrats the election:

    - the much too generous support given out during the pandemic and the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act, which stoked inflation
    - the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, from which Biden's approval ratings never recovered
    - Biden clinging on much, much too long, then annointing Kamala as his successor without a proper competition.

    And the heroic Ukrainians and Taiwanese will pay the price.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,175

    nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
    Errr…about that ‘projection’ you mentioned…
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    This is also - finally - the end of Woke

    Yes, the end of trying to treat people equally, and the start of the smashing of the rights of minorities. And women...
    A consensus has formed based on the male female voting split that women have too much power in western societies. This has to be addressed for the good of society.
    Also Putin will be waking up with a smile this morning. Much of Ukraine will now likely be handed to Russia and Ukraine will be reduced to a rump state. Its over for Zelensky.
    It could be over for the western free market liberal world for the time being.

    Trump will match his America First isolationism with massive tariffs and protectionism on imports to the US
    Starmer needs to decide whether he tries to cosy up to Trump or tries to find other allies. I think Starmer's instincts, politics and professional history will be against Trump, and I can imagine Trump not liking Starmer, either.

    A very bad result for the UK.
    The UK has been busy estranging itself from the global order since 2016. This is another nail in the coffin.
    AUKUS looks like a critical part of the global order at this point. It's New Zealand that has estranged itself.
  • nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
    No. It depends on whether Trump pursues policies that promote division and persecute those on the losing side. Division won't come from the result, it will come from what the winner does with that result.
    Division comes from the woke left. They have to lose power everywhere now.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,288

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    This is also - finally - the end of Woke

    Yes, the end of trying to treat people equally, and the start of the smashing of the rights of minorities. And women...
    A consensus has formed based on the male female voting split that women have too much power in western societies. This has to be addressed for the good of society.
    Also Putin will be waking up with a smile this morning. Much of Ukraine will now likely be handed to Russia and Ukraine will be reduced to a rump state. Its over for Zelensky.
    It could be over for the western free market liberal world for the time being.

    Trump will match his America First isolationism with massive tariffs and protectionism on imports to the US
    Starmer needs to decide whether he tries to cosy up to Trump or tries to find other allies. I think Starmer's instincts, politics and professional history will be against Trump, and I can imagine Trump not liking Starmer, either.

    A very bad result for the UK.
    The UK has been busy estranging itself from the global order since 2016. This is another nail in the coffin.
    Not a view held in much of Eastern Europe where Britain has been a far stronger and more reliable ally than the rest of the EU.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,175

    There is a desire in the west for a strong leader like Putin. Trump supplies this.

    ’The west’ doesn’t want leaders who are Xi and Kim’s bitch. Whether the Americans still count as the west remains to be seen.
  • I do wonder whether Minnesota could go R
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390
    Trump is 200k votes up in PA, with c.500k still to count.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,249
    Fishing said:

    If, as looks likely though not certain, Trump has won, I think three things cost the Democrats the election:

    - the much too generous support given out during the pandemic and the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act, which stoked inflation
    - the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, from which Biden's approval ratings never recovered
    - Biden clinging on much, much too long, then annointing Kamala as his successor without a proper competition.

    And the heroic Ukrainians and Taiwanese will pay the price.

    I fear the Israel - Hamas conflict has potentially cost Harris a lot of support.. But as ever, the runes are currently indistinct. Let's wait for more data.
  • Sky news still pretending Harris has a good chance. Laughable.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    It'll be interesting seeing Starmer and Trump working together.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6

    Fishing said:

    If, as looks likely though not certain, Trump has won, I think three things cost the Democrats the election:

    - the much too generous support given out during the pandemic and the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act, which stoked inflation
    - the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, from which Biden's approval ratings never recovered
    - Biden clinging on much, much too long, then annointing Kamala as his successor without a proper competition.

    And the heroic Ukrainians and Taiwanese will pay the price.

    I fear the Israel - Hamas conflict has potentially cost Harris a lot of support.. But as ever, the runes are currently indistinct. Let's wait for more data.
    It definitely looks like it hit in some college towns that CNN have shown.
  • ydoethur said:

    There is a desire in the west for a strong leader like Putin. Trump supplies this.

    ’The west’ doesn’t want leaders who are Xi and Kim’s bitch. Whether the Americans still count as the west remains to be seen.
    Without the americans europe could be russias to take.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Here’s a major problem for the Democrats


    1. Biden called Trump voters garbage. It now looks like the majority of American voters are garbage

    2. Harris called Trump a fascist. It now looks like the next POTUS will be a fascist, according to the Democrats

    How do they walk back from all that?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868

    ydoethur said:

    There is a desire in the west for a strong leader like Putin. Trump supplies this.

    ’The west’ doesn’t want leaders who are Xi and Kim’s bitch. Whether the Americans still count as the west remains to be seen.
    Without the americans europe could be russias to take.
    They couldn’t even take Ukraine, lol.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    Leon said:

    Here’s a major problem for the Democrats


    1. Biden called Trump voters garbage. It now looks like the majority of American voters are garbage

    2. Harris called Trump a fascist. It now looks like the next POTUS will be a fascist, according to the Democrats

    How do they walk back from all that?

    And when the next election actually happens…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6

    Fishing said:

    If, as looks likely though not certain, Trump has won, I think three things cost the Democrats the election:

    - the much too generous support given out during the pandemic and the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act, which stoked inflation
    - the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, from which Biden's approval ratings never recovered
    - Biden clinging on much, much too long, then annointing Kamala as his successor without a proper competition.

    And the heroic Ukrainians and Taiwanese will pay the price.

    I fear the Israel - Hamas conflict has potentially cost Harris a lot of support.. But as ever, the runes are currently indistinct. Let's wait for more data.
    I hope the Arabs and Muslims who stayed home in Michigan or voted Trump or Stein enjoy the Netanyahu obliteration of Gaza and attack on Iran as that is what they will now get with Trump's full support for Bibi
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    Florida has an “extremist, right-wing, fascist-type government” according to MSNBC’s Joy Reid.

    https://x.com/endwokeness/status/1853991051926573507
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,360
    edited November 6
    Can Harris still get WI, MI, PA and NV?

    Or is it over?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    CNN talking about how all the identity groups were out there door knocking for Harris, while no sign of any Republicans.

    I wonder if like Tories in 2015 worked out Facebook was the big thing, that Trump has worked out that things like podcasts are how you reach people.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,175

    ydoethur said:

    There is a desire in the west for a strong leader like Putin. Trump supplies this.

    ’The west’ doesn’t want leaders who are Xi and Kim’s bitch. Whether the Americans still count as the west remains to be seen.
    Without the americans europe could be russias to take.
    Russia can’t even take Kherson. Their army’s so weak it relies on third world countries to survive. Their president is an addled paederast surrounded by drunks. Their economy is imploding and will only suffer more as people withdraw investment.

    I know you have to post delusional nonsense to earn your fee but (a) couldn’t you make it funny and (b) at least try to spell it correctly?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,220

    nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
    There’s nothing to argue about . US voters want another 4 years of Trump , it looks currently that it won’t even be close . I can’t pretend to understand the mindset of most Americans, I find it baffling .
  • Leon said:

    Here’s a major problem for the Democrats


    1. Biden called Trump voters garbage. It now looks like the majority of American voters are garbage

    2. Harris called Trump a fascist. It now looks like the next POTUS will be a fascist, according to the Democrats

    How do they walk back from all that?

    They cant. But the democrats is just the party of minorities and crazy white liberal women on antidepressants.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627

    Can Harris still get WI, MI, PA and NV?

    Or is it over?

    The NYT needle of doom have everything pointing strongly Trump.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390

    Florida has an “extremist, right-wing, fascist-type government” according to MSNBC’s Joy Reid.

    https://x.com/endwokeness/status/1853991051926573507

    If Trump wins, watching Joy Reid and Rachel Maddow is going to be hilarious!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    So no rabbits out of hats then. So much for Harris trying so hard to reach disaffected Republicans.

    On paper economic growth is good even, how much would have been enough? Or was it immigration?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Fishing said:

    If, as looks likely though not certain, Trump has won, I think three things cost the Democrats the election:

    - the much too generous support given out during the pandemic and the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act, which stoked inflation
    - the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, from which Biden's approval ratings never recovered
    - Biden clinging on much, much too long, then annointing Kamala as his successor without a proper competition.

    And the heroic Ukrainians and Taiwanese will pay the price.

    Zelensky if he has any sense will get nuclear weapons within 6 months and Taiwan follow suit.

    I am not sure if Trump's tariffs will help inflation much though either
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
    There’s nothing to argue about . US voters want another 4 years of Trump , it looks currently that it won’t even be close . I can’t pretend to understand the mindset of most Americans, I find it baffling .
    Ultimately it's simple. Voters think he's the most qualified to be president, and if you are a democrat, you must think they ought to know.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    kle4 said:

    So no rabbits out of hats then. So much for Harris trying so hard to reach disaffected Republicans.

    On paper economic growth is good even, how much would have been enough? Or was it immigration?

    The problem is that the growth is all going to those with assets and in certain industries. Those renting, in what the US call the middle class, no real investments in the stock market, the inflation is absolute killer. Then you find out there have millions and millions of illegal immigrants, and for most of the 4 years the government have just shrugged.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    Looking at the map, you can't help feeling the losing states in the American civil war have never really forgiven the rest of the country for defeating them.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,360

    Can Harris still get WI, MI, PA and NV?

    Or is it over?

    The NYT needle of doom have everything pointing strongly Trump.
    That’s a bit of a bum then 😕
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
    There’s nothing to argue about . US voters want another 4 years of Trump , it looks currently that it won’t even be close . I can’t pretend to understand the mindset of most Americans, I find it baffling .
    Indeed. I expect there'll be some minor quibbling but widespread non acceptance is a non starter, it's only the one side - seemingly the more popular side - which has form on fighting results.

    More than any policy Trump has such a huge ego, and it sucks when big egos are right about people liking them.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    Trump just took the lead in Michigan.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,220

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
    There’s nothing to argue about . US voters want another 4 years of Trump , it looks currently that it won’t even be close . I can’t pretend to understand the mindset of most Americans, I find it baffling .
    Ultimately it's simple. Voters think he's the most qualified to be president, and if you are a democrat, you must think they ought to know.
    I’m not arguing with the result . People want Trump . I don’t have to understand it. It is what it is . If people are happy to have a pathological liar as President that’s upto them.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    Rory a couple of days ago.

    "Rory Stewart
    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    ✴️Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    6:37 AM · Nov 4, 2024
    2.3M Views"

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782
  • HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    If, as looks likely though not certain, Trump has won, I think three things cost the Democrats the election:

    - the much too generous support given out during the pandemic and the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act, which stoked inflation
    - the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, from which Biden's approval ratings never recovered
    - Biden clinging on much, much too long, then annointing Kamala as his successor without a proper competition.

    And the heroic Ukrainians and Taiwanese will pay the price.

    Zelensky if he has any sense will get nuclear weapons within 6 months and Taiwan follow suit.

    I am not sure if Trump's tariffs will help inflation much though either
    Get nukes from where?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    A glance at some of the anti Trump sources i track and they're not all super panicking...but because they are weirdly quiet, which tells the same story as panicking given they'd highlight anybfood news.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
    There’s nothing to argue about . US voters want another 4 years of Trump , it looks currently that it won’t even be close . I can’t pretend to understand the mindset of most Americans, I find it baffling .
    Ultimately it's simple. Voters think he's the most qualified to be president, and if you are a democrat, you must think they ought to know.
    I’m not arguing with the result . People want Trump . I don’t have to understand it. It is what it is . If people are happy to have a pathological liar as President that’s upto them.

    We have a confirmed liar as Prime Minister. Why is that disqualifying?
  • kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
    There’s nothing to argue about . US voters want another 4 years of Trump , it looks currently that it won’t even be close . I can’t pretend to understand the mindset of most Americans, I find it baffling .
    Indeed. I expect there'll be some minor quibbling but widespread non acceptance is a non starter, it's only the one side - seemingly the more popular side - which has form on fighting results.

    More than any policy Trump has such a huge ego, and it sucks when big egos are right about people liking them.
    Try expanding your social circle mate. Maybe actually talk to some working class people. Liberal bubbles aint healthy and you have no idea how much people hate the likes of yourself.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    THE DD WIGGLY WORM now has Trump on 89% chance of victory
  • Leon said:

    THE DD WIGGLY WORM now has Trump on 89% chance of victory

    Sky news still thinks its close lol.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,175
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    If, as looks likely though not certain, Trump has won, I think three things cost the Democrats the election:

    - the much too generous support given out during the pandemic and the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act, which stoked inflation
    - the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, from which Biden's approval ratings never recovered
    - Biden clinging on much, much too long, then annointing Kamala as his successor without a proper competition.

    And the heroic Ukrainians and Taiwanese will pay the price.

    Zelensky if he has any sense will get nuclear weapons within 6 months and Taiwan follow suit.

    I am not sure if Trump's tariffs will help inflation much though either
    They will help inflation enormously. Expect it to exceed 20%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Andy_JS said:

    Rory a couple of days ago.

    "Rory Stewart
    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    ✴️Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    6:37 AM · Nov 4, 2024
    2.3M Views"

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782

    The centrist dad media bubble have failed again. The problem is these people struggle to understand that the people they don't meet when they go to the US have been having a terrible time, inflation, crime, drugs, illegal immigration (and not just the cities).

    YouTuber Peter Santenello had lots of interesting videos over the past few months. Very similar to John Harris videos over the years.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Andy_JS said:

    Rory a couple of days ago.

    "Rory Stewart
    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    ✴️Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    6:37 AM · Nov 4, 2024
    2.3M Views"

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782

    Stewart is a genuinely stupid man

    A few months ago he was amazed by the migration stats of the last few years
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,220

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
    There’s nothing to argue about . US voters want another 4 years of Trump , it looks currently that it won’t even be close . I can’t pretend to understand the mindset of most Americans, I find it baffling .
    Ultimately it's simple. Voters think he's the most qualified to be president, and if you are a democrat, you must think they ought to know.
    I’m not arguing with the result . People want Trump . I don’t have to understand it. It is what it is . If people are happy to have a pathological liar as President that’s upto them.

    We have a confirmed liar as Prime Minister. Why is that disqualifying?
    Oh please . You can’t seriously say Starmer is the equivalent of Trump .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,175
    edited November 6

    kle4 said:

    So no rabbits out of hats then. So much for Harris trying so hard to reach disaffected Republicans.

    On paper economic growth is good even, how much would have been enough? Or was it immigration?

    The problem is that the growth is all going to those with assets and in certain industries. Those renting, in what the US call the middle class, no real investments in the stock market, the inflation is absolute killer. Then you find out there have millions and millions of illegal immigrants, and for most of the 4 years the government have just shrugged.
    The irony being one reason why the government ‘just shrugged’ is because Trump intervened behind the scenes to make the problem worse by blocking the government from doing anything about it.

    He’s astute at manipulating popular opinion, you have to give him that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    CNN still fighting the good fight...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Some bod on the BBC said he'd much rather be Democrat in PA !!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rory a couple of days ago.

    "Rory Stewart
    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    ✴️Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    6:37 AM · Nov 4, 2024
    2.3M Views"

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782

    Stewart is a genuinely stupid man

    A few months ago he was amazed by the migration stats of the last few years
    But thinks he's uncommonly clever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Andy_JS said:

    Looking at the map, you can't help feeling the losing states in the American civil war have never really forgiven the rest of the country for defeating them.

    Not entirely, Trump is winning plenty of Union states in the Midwest and West and Harris has won Virginia which was Confederate
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    As of this minute:

    Trump is leading all 7 battleground states.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    edited November 6
    Question for PB political legal eagles, what would happen if Trump was assassinated right now?!

    God willing no such thing will happen

    But constitutionally what happens if one candidate is whacked (or has a heart attack) during an actual election?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390

    Andy_JS said:

    Rory a couple of days ago.

    "Rory Stewart
    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    ✴️Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    6:37 AM · Nov 4, 2024
    2.3M Views"

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782

    The centrist dad media bubble have failed again. The problem is these people struggle to understand that the people they don't meet when they go to the US have been having a terrible time, inflation, crime, drugs, illegal immigration (and not just the cities).

    YouTuber Peter Santenello had lots of interesting videos over the past few months. Very similar to John Harris videos over the years.
    The flyover states, where the garbage deplorables turned out again. It’s the economy, stupid.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,175
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rory a couple of days ago.

    "Rory Stewart
    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    ✴️Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    6:37 AM · Nov 4, 2024
    2.3M Views"

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782

    Stewart is a genuinely stupid man

    A few months ago he was amazed by the migration stats of the last few years
    But thinks he's uncommonly clever.
    Well, there have been several posters on PB who have that problem.

    I remember Eadric, Byronic, LadyG…
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    BREAAKKKKKKINGGG NEWSSSSSS.....CNN predict Trump with win N.C. (about an hour after NYT).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    edited November 6

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    What can one say. I think Harris fought a good campaign but American voters decided they wanted 4 more years of hate and division .

    I’m not shocked given the polls were so close. But one has to feel for those Americans who must wonder what on earth has happened to their country .

    Whether there is division depends on whether people accept the result or fight against it.
    There’s nothing to argue about . US voters want another 4 years of Trump , it looks currently that it won’t even be close . I can’t pretend to understand the mindset of most Americans, I find it baffling .
    Indeed. I expect there'll be some minor quibbling but widespread non acceptance is a non starter, it's only the one side - seemingly the more popular side - which has form on fighting results.

    More than any policy Trump has such a huge ego, and it sucks when big egos are right about people liking them.
    Try expanding your social circle mate. Maybe actually talk to some working class people. Liberal bubbles aint healthy and you have no idea how much people hate the likes of yourself.
    Even people who like Trump would not dispute he has an ego, he would admit it himself (he just thinks its justified) why would they hate me for saying that?

    And I was predicting a Trump win, just not as comfortably.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,175
    edited November 6
    Leon said:

    Question for political legal eagles, what would happen if Trump was assassinated right now?!

    God willing no such thing will happen

    But constitutionally what happens if one candidate is whacked (or has a heart attack) during an actual election?

    Vance would become President. He would be elected Vice President and then take office as the President is unable to.

    Which given Trump’s age and decay seems pretty likely in the near future anyway.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    Leon said:

    Question for political legal eagles, what would happen if Trump was assassinated right now?!

    God willing no such thing will happen

    But constitutionally what happens if one candidate is whacked (or has a heart attack) during an actual election?

    The American secret service can be blamed for failing to stop the snipers, thus probably adding to Trump's support when he survived the attempts. I still don't know how they failed so spectacularly to secure the areas.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    WI, MI and PA are amazingly correlated. Constantly swapping for deciding state.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Leon said:

    Question for PB political legal eagles, what would happen if Trump was assassinated right now?!

    God willing no such thing will happen

    But constitutionally what happens if one candidate is whacked (or has a heart attack) during an actual election?

    It would just be President Vance in January offering largely the same policies but more articulately
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,611

    Leon said:

    Here’s a major problem for the Democrats


    1. Biden called Trump voters garbage. It now looks like the majority of American voters are garbage

    2. Harris called Trump a fascist. It now looks like the next POTUS will be a fascist, according to the Democrats

    How do they walk back from all that?

    They cant. But the democrats is just the party of minorities and crazy white liberal women on antidepressants.
    Hi. Got a question.

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rory a couple of days ago.

    "Rory Stewart
    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    ✴️Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    6:37 AM · Nov 4, 2024
    2.3M Views"

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782

    The centrist dad media bubble have failed again. The problem is these people struggle to understand that the people they don't meet when they go to the US have been having a terrible time, inflation, crime, drugs, illegal immigration (and not just the cities).

    YouTuber Peter Santenello had lots of interesting videos over the past few months. Very similar to John Harris videos over the years.
    The flyover states, where the garbage deplorables turned out again. It’s the economy, stupid.
    Not just those, NY, Vermont, Massachusetts...he found lots of very angry people e.g. putting up illegal immigrants in hotels in rural towns.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,175
    Andy_JS said:

    Rory a couple of days ago.

    "Rory Stewart
    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    ✴️Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    6:37 AM · Nov 4, 2024
    2.3M Views"

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782

    Yes, I thought he knew nothing about US politics.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,249
    edited November 6

    Andy_JS said:

    Rory a couple of days ago.

    "Rory Stewart
    @RoryStewartUK

    Kamala Harris will win comfortably, because:
    • Biden’s admin has been solid
    • Trump’s lost ground since 2016
    • The young Black male votes which Trump needs didn’t turn out in 16, 18, 20, or 22
    • Young women like Kamala + vote
    ✴️Ignore polls—they’re herding, after past misses

    6:37 AM · Nov 4, 2024
    2.3M Views"

    https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1853325635747266782

    The centrist dad media bubble have failed again. The problem is these people struggle to understand that the people they don't meet when they go to the US have been having a terrible time, inflation, crime, drugs, illegal immigration (and not just the cities).

    YouTuber Peter Santenello had lots of interesting videos over the past few months.
    It was the same in the UK over Brexit, and in 2019 over the Red Wall. Or in Turkey, between the urban intelligentsia and the more conservative rural folk. Or, more extreme, in Afghanistan, where the westernised folk in Kabul seemed to know f-all about the remote tribal people.

    In fact, it's probably the same in almost every country.

    Afghanistan's an interesting one wrt Rory, as he's spoken and written about that very eloquently. That people from western countries would visit Kabul, talk to westernised Afghanis, then go away thinking everything was fine. They would, for understandable reasons, not make the sorts of journeys Rory did into the hinterland. So he has probably made the same mistake in the USA than he saw others make in Afghanistan.

    it should also be noted that Starmer's massive majority was not gained by a massive vote share.
  • Time to change the mod policy on this site. No more banning people as russian trolls who put forth slightly different views. It reeks of insecurity from the mods and with Trump in the WH just looks silly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    MikeL said:

    As of this minute:

    Trump is leading all 7 battleground states.

    Was always a possibility knife edge polling would mean one side sweeps them all. Biden got 6 of 7.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,249
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    If, as looks likely though not certain, Trump has won, I think three things cost the Democrats the election:

    - the much too generous support given out during the pandemic and the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act, which stoked inflation
    - the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, from which Biden's approval ratings never recovered
    - Biden clinging on much, much too long, then annointing Kamala as his successor without a proper competition.

    And the heroic Ukrainians and Taiwanese will pay the price.

    I fear the Israel - Hamas conflict has potentially cost Harris a lot of support.. But as ever, the runes are currently indistinct. Let's wait for more data.
    I hope the Arabs and Muslims who stayed home in Michigan or voted Trump or Stein enjoy the Netanyahu obliteration of Gaza and attack on Iran as that is what they will now get with Trump's full support for Bibi
    Well, yes. Their feelings of moral purity will not help the people they think they care about.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Question for political legal eagles, what would happen if Trump was assassinated right now?!

    God willing no such thing will happen

    But constitutionally what happens if one candidate is whacked (or has a heart attack) during an actual election?

    The American secret service can be blamed for failing to stop the snipers, thus probably adding to Trump's support when he survived the attempts. I still don't know how they failed so spectacularly to secure the areas.
    Because there was a conspiracy (probably involving Ukraine) to kill Trump in PA
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390
    Dana Bash on CNN is almost in tears.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,175

    Time to change the mod policy on this site. No more banning people as russian trolls who put forth slightly different views. It reeks of insecurity from the mods and with Trump in the WH just looks silly.

    They haven’t banned the Russian troll this morning, duh.

    Not even for crimes against the English language.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    CNN still fighting the good fight...

    Who will be the last holdout believing I wonder, whose audience will be surprised when they cannot pretend anymore?
  • Leon said:

    Here’s a major problem for the Democrats


    1. Biden called Trump voters garbage. It now looks like the majority of American voters are garbage

    2. Harris called Trump a fascist. It now looks like the next POTUS will be a fascist, according to the Democrats

    How do they walk back from all that?

    They cant. But the democrats is just the party of minorities and crazy white liberal women on antidepressants.
    Hi. Got a question.

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    You are so boring. Get on your knees to President Trump.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292

    Leon said:

    Here’s a major problem for the Democrats


    1. Biden called Trump voters garbage. It now looks like the majority of American voters are garbage

    2. Harris called Trump a fascist. It now looks like the next POTUS will be a fascist, according to the Democrats

    How do they walk back from all that?

    They cant. But the democrats is just the party of minorities and crazy white liberal women on antidepressants.
    Hi. Got a question.

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    You are so boring. Get on your knees to President Trump.
    We try to be polite on this forum while disagreeing with each other.
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 663
    @Cleethorpes you broke the first rule of PB moderation.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,277
    Rory will no doubt be very contrite when he takes the air again in 15 minutes.

    Knowing his penchant for romantic conservatism, he may be wearing mourning bands and weepers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    CNN now dropping the identity politics / abortion stuff and tuned on a dime to well can't outrun the Biden economy and illegal immigrants are a problem.....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    edited November 6
    Almost feels like pretty soon the UK will be the only country in the world that doesn't have a populist government. (With the possible exception of Iceland).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    Andy_JS said:

    Almost feels like pretty soon the UK will be the only country in the world that doesn't have a populist government. (With the possible exception of Iceland).

    Starmer definitely giving the good old British try to ensure no popularism about his government ;-)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,175
    Sandpit said:

    Dana Bash on CNN is almost in tears.

    Who can blame her? Having her country elect a deranged old fool who has threatened to be a dictator is not good.

    Venezuela did something similar with Chavez and it’s been a disaster.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Are Bad Al and Rory the Former Tory still on their YouTube channel? I presume they must be very angry now. When I tuned in earlier they were very chipper.

    Edit - They go live in 10 mins.....
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,735
    Dem guy (on BBC) still quoting red mirage and not over in Blue Wall. Still time. Etc.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    edited November 6
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dana Bash on CNN is almost in tears.

    Who can blame her? Having her country elect a deranged old fool who has threatened to be a dictator is not good.

    Venezuela did something similar with Chavez and it’s been a disaster.
    It was very avoidable if they'd just taken some basic steps to dampen down the appeal of Trump and people like him.

    For example Thatcher's government was mostly full of old-school paternalists like Geoffrey Howe and Douglas Hurd, the very opposite of populist, but despite that she managed to make the far-right disappear almost completely by saying and doing a few things to satisfy people on the populist front.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Checking some more prolific accounts many haven't tweeted in 3 hours, I think many are in shock - always unclear whether people are spinning or believing, but I think it's the latter with many, it's not a shock to those following the polls (though we'd hoped they would fall on the positive side) but despite knowing it was close these really thought they had it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    Dem guy (on BBC) still quoting red mirage and not over in Blue Wall. Still time. Etc.

    Probably keep that up until the normal people wake up and have to accept the obvious.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,611

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    If, as looks likely though not certain, Trump has won, I think three things cost the Democrats the election:

    - the much too generous support given out during the pandemic and the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act, which stoked inflation
    - the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, from which Biden's approval ratings never recovered
    - Biden clinging on much, much too long, then annointing Kamala as his successor without a proper competition.

    And the heroic Ukrainians and Taiwanese will pay the price.

    Zelensky if he has any sense will get nuclear weapons within 6 months and Taiwan follow suit.

    I am not sure if Trump's tariffs will help inflation much though either
    Get nukes from where?
    Both Ukraine and Taiwan have nuclear reactors. Nuclear reactors have cooling ponds. Full of old fuel rods.

    There’s a myth that you can’t use “civil plutonium” in a nuclear device. Too much Pu-240

    In fact, the US tested a weapon in the 1960s with plutonium which was 25% Pu-240. Which is very, very high burn up. British plutonium, by the way, which we swapped for HEU.

    That’s assuming that each country didn’t run a set of fuel rods at low power in part of one reactor, for a shorter period of time. To create low burn up (less 240, more 239 Plutonium). Once you’ve done that, you stick it in the cooling pond with the rest. As an investment.

    The rest is chemistry - dissolve the rods in acid, precipitate the plutonium - and a bit of engineering. Implosion needed inventing in 1945. Nowadays the skills are taught at university, and you can do the computation on your wrist watch….
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,228
    Betting wise, after some frantic hedging....

    I'm- 300 on next President.
    Will be +250 if Harris wins PV and -80 if not.
    Will be +70 if all/most swing states go Trump.

    So worst of all worlds is narrow Trump PV, EC win.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    Dem guy (on BBC) still quoting red mirage and not over in Blue Wall. Still time. Etc.

    CNN here yielding to reality


    11:47 PM EST
    Jeff Zeleny
    Scores of people are silently leaving the Yard at Howard University. No one has addressed the crowd. The Harris campaign has been radio silent to this crowd of supporters who arrived with a spirit of jubilation and are leaving with a sense of disbelief and dejection.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dana Bash on CNN is almost in tears.

    Who can blame her? Having her country elect a deranged old fool who has threatened to be a dictator is not good.

    Venezuela did something similar with Chavez and it’s been a disaster.
    It was very avoidable if they'd just taken some basic steps to dampen down the appeal of Trump and people like him.
    They could, for instance, have told Biden he was not going to be the candidate in 2024 and then had a proper series of primaries. Not a coronation of a ditzy do-nothing like Harris
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Question for political legal eagles, what would happen if Trump was assassinated right now?!

    God willing no such thing will happen

    But constitutionally what happens if one candidate is whacked (or has a heart attack) during an actual election?

    The American secret service can be blamed for failing to stop the snipers, thus probably adding to Trump's support when he survived the attempts. I still don't know how they failed so spectacularly to secure the areas.
    Because there was a conspiracy (probably involving Ukraine) to kill Trump in PA
    Your conspiracy theory needs to include the US Secret Service, which seems a stretch, and also the local police force.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,277
    edited November 6
    I had assumed a close but clear Harris win.
    Which has kept me cheery these past few weeks, while others fretted.

    I’m shocked, embarrassed, depressed and vaguely nauseous. God only knows how actual Democratic voters feel.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Question for PB political legal eagles, what would happen if Trump was assassinated right now?!

    God willing no such thing will happen

    But constitutionally what happens if one candidate is whacked (or has a heart attack) during an actual election?

    It would just be President Vance in January offering largely the same policies but more articulately
    Vance is closely tied to Project 2025. Trump is not, even if it happens anyway because he has no policies of his own in most areas.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,611

    Leon said:

    Here’s a major problem for the Democrats


    1. Biden called Trump voters garbage. It now looks like the majority of American voters are garbage

    2. Harris called Trump a fascist. It now looks like the next POTUS will be a fascist, according to the Democrats

    How do they walk back from all that?

    They cant. But the democrats is just the party of minorities and crazy white liberal women on antidepressants.
    Hi. Got a question.

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    You are so boring. Get on your knees to President Trump.
    Thank you for the answer. As usual, illuminating.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    https://x.com/jacquiheinrich/status/1854021787488596451

    Three sources close to Harris are expressing concern that Harris’ path to victory may be too narrow to overcome.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Question for political legal eagles, what would happen if Trump was assassinated right now?!

    God willing no such thing will happen

    But constitutionally what happens if one candidate is whacked (or has a heart attack) during an actual election?

    The American secret service can be blamed for failing to stop the snipers, thus probably adding to Trump's support when he survived the attempts. I still don't know how they failed so spectacularly to secure the areas.
    Because there was a conspiracy (probably involving Ukraine) to kill Trump in PA
    Your conspiracy theory needs to include the US Secret Service, which seems a stretch, and also the local police force.
    Pennsylvania has the 2nd largest Ukrainian population in the USA and many of them are in the police force
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    This truly is a victory for the lawyers - Trump successfully pushed back all but the most minor legal case against him, a masterpiece of delay tactics. The state cases won't technically need to be dismissed but won't go anywhere.

    And Trump media will retain value so financially he's going to be ok even if the civil damages are mostly upheld (it was already likely to reduce on appeal). What a lucky man!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,249

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Question for political legal eagles, what would happen if Trump was assassinated right now?!

    God willing no such thing will happen

    But constitutionally what happens if one candidate is whacked (or has a heart attack) during an actual election?

    The American secret service can be blamed for failing to stop the snipers, thus probably adding to Trump's support when he survived the attempts. I still don't know how they failed so spectacularly to secure the areas.
    Because there was a conspiracy (probably involving Ukraine) to kill Trump in PA
    Your conspiracy theory needs to include the US Secret Service, which seems a stretch, and also the local police force.
    Yes, Leon's constant invoking of Ukraine over that incident is crass.
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