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The gender split is key – politicalbetting.com

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,824
    Polymarket has flipped from Kamela most PV to Trump PV
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    I must confess — I don't understand the NYT's needle for national popular vote. Trump is 4 million ahead with California, Washington and Oregon to come.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Why trust Decision Desk when they literally cannot input the Florida votes correctly?

    If you can find a better WIGGLY WORM then knock yourself out

    Ooof. NYT has ticked even more to Trump. Now with a 73% chance of victory

    Is this over?
    NYT needle still has Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania toss ups. They will decide the election now almost certainly and Harris as of now leads 2/3 of them, with Wisconsin now having Trump fractionally ahead by 0.5%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    viewcode said:

    Polymarket has flipped from Kamela most PV to Trump PV

    I thought about lumping on Harris for that one. Sometimes the profit is in the bets you don't make.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,436
    I just can’t fathom looking and listening to Trump and, regardless of Harris’s quality, deciding that he’s fit to he president. Madness.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,175

    One things for sure, no one will be talking about Ann Selzer being the polling gold standard at the next election

    She was just unlucky that this poll was one of the one in twenty that’s an outlier.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 21

    If you believe the NYT needle then Trump is going to get a bigger win in both ECV and popular vote terms over Harris than he did over Clinton

    Surely he is favourite to win popular vote now? Especially if he claws back some of the 5 million deficit in California
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    Sean_F said:

    One things for sure, no one will be talking about Ann Selzer being the polling gold standard at the next election

    She was just unlucky that this poll was one of the one in twenty that’s an outlier.
    That was the simplest explanation…
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Why trust Decision Desk when they literally cannot input the Florida votes correctly?

    If you can find a better WIGGLY WORM then knock yourself out

    Ooof. NYT has ticked even more to Trump. Now with a 73% chance of victory

    Is this over?
    NYT needle still has Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania toss ups. They will decide the election now almost certainly and Harris as of now leads in all of them
    All with her odds against on BF.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Iowa 35% in Trump 50% Harris 49%
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,175
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    MikeL said:

    Why trust Decision Desk when they literally cannot input the Florida votes correctly?

    If you can find a better WIGGLY WORM then knock yourself out

    Ooof. NYT has ticked even more to Trump. Now with a 73% chance of victory

    Is this over?
    NYT needle still has Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania toss ups. They will decide the election now almost certainly and Harris as of now leads 2/3 of them, with Wisconsin now having Trump fractionally ahead
    The NYT gives Trump a 50%+ chance in each.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Ru roh AZ has immediately gone lean R.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    Trump ahead in PA 46%% in
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    Going in on Trump PV win on Betfair
  • Andy_JS said:

    Georgia starting to look more interesting for Harris.

    200k behind. 400k to count. Unlikely.
    Biden won Georgia from a similar position, I see it as very close.
    I trust you are lumping on at 6-1?
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 21
    viewcode said:

    Polymarket has flipped from Kamela most PV to Trump PV

    NYT now has Trump plus 0.2 for popular vote
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,277

    I just can’t fathom looking and listening to Trump and, regardless of Harris’s quality, deciding that he’s fit to he president. Madness.

    Absolutely. Incoherent, fraudulent, chaotic.
    After 8 years of “Trump”, it remains ultimately impossible to fully explain.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Trump about to take the lead in PA...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    With NYT, everything keeps ticking in only one direction.

    Just going to load some more food into the bomb shelter.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983

    Popular vote estimate

    Trump +0.3

    Harris +5 to Trump +6
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 21

    I just can’t fathom looking and listening to Trump and, regardless of Harris’s quality, deciding that he’s fit to he president. Madness.

    Seems to be the economy driving this, rather than his fitness to govern
  • MikeL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Georgia starting to look more interesting for Harris.

    200k behind. 400k to count. Unlikely.
    Sorry that is completely wrong.

    2020 vote = 5m

    2024 counted so far = 4.3m
    Well, I hope you're right. CNN seems to be extrapolating 4.5M votes and Trump 209k ahead with 81% counted.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390
    NYT latest estimate 291-237 to Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Arizona 36% in

    Trump 49.6%
    Harris 49.6%
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    Ukraine should probably have reached a peace deal with Russia over the summer. They are going to get annihilated now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    New Mexico 23% in

    Trump 52%
    Harris 46%
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    Sandpit said:

    NYT latest estimate 291-237 to Trump.

    I've just put in a bet on 300+ ECV for Trump. I think he's going to win all the tossups
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390
    edited November 6
    Desiciondesk have already called Virginia for Harris, but Trump is marginally ahead there, by less than the votes for Jill Stein.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    MikeL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Georgia starting to look more interesting for Harris.

    200k behind. 400k to count. Unlikely.
    Sorry that is completely wrong.

    2020 vote = 5m

    2024 counted so far = 4.3m
    Also turnout could be up a bit on 2020. The electorate has grown as well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    NYT are just about ready to call it for Georgia and NC, while CNN are still running around trying to find the votes that could enable Harris to come back in those states.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Andy_JS said:

    Georgia starting to look more interesting for Harris.

    200k behind. 400k to count. Unlikely.
    Biden won Georgia from a similar position, I see it as very close.
    I trust you are lumping on at 6-1?
    I have some, yes. Don't think it is likely a winner though - close but no cigar.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    TICIiPOTUS

    Goodnight
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 21

    Sandpit said:

    NYT latest estimate 291-237 to Trump.

    I've just put in a bet on 300+ ECV for Trump. I think he's going to win all the tossups
    2.0 now in the 300-329 betfair band
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    DDHQ HAS CALLED NORTH CAROLINA FOR TRUMP
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    GA at 91% for Trump on NYT.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688

    MikeL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Georgia starting to look more interesting for Harris.

    200k behind. 400k to count. Unlikely.
    Sorry that is completely wrong.

    2020 vote = 5m

    2024 counted so far = 4.3m
    Well, I hope you're right. CNN seems to be extrapolating 4.5M votes and Trump 209k ahead with 81% counted.
    GA is a growing state - total vote will almost certainly be up.

    The CNN % reporting is not precisely correlated to total vote - it may be distorted by mail, different precinct sizes etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    DoctorG said:

    viewcode said:

    Polymarket has flipped from Kamela most PV to Trump PV

    NYT now has Trump plus 0.2 for popular vote
    If Trump does win I hope he wins the popular vote so when he imposes massive tariffs, when abortion is massively restricted in most of middle America and when he withdraws from NATO Americans can't say they weren't warned but still mostly voted for him anyway
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    It really is incredible that Trump was written off as a novelty canddiate in 2015, and will end up defining an era and serving two terms spanning more than a decade.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937

    Sandpit said:

    NYT latest estimate 291-237 to Trump.

    I've just put in a bet on 300+ ECV for Trump. I think he's going to win all the tossups
    It was always likely that one of the two would win all the toss ups.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    Pulpstar said:

    DDHQ HAS CALLED NORTH CAROLINA FOR TRUMP

    Big news.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Sandpit said:

    Polymarket have already called Virginia for Harris, but Trump is marginally ahead there, by less than the votes for Jill Stein.

    The NYT model has it 90% Harris will win, but the margin is even tighter. Trump is clearly doing much better on those East coast states around there.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292

    It really is incredible that Trump was written off as a novelty canddiate in 2015, and will end up defining an era and serving two terms spanning more than a decade.

    Because political elites decided to ignore a lot of the real problems that were developing in the country.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390
    Polymarket now 90% for Trump
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    I have just heard the fat lady has arrived in a taxi....
  • Sandpit said:

    NYT latest estimate 291-237 to Trump.

    I've just put in a bet on 300+ ECV for Trump. I think he's going to win all the tossups
    Yes I think that might well come in, what price did you get?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Musk's buying of Twitter has probably won this for Trump tbh.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Pulpstar said:

    Musk's buying of Twitter has probably won this for Trump tbh.

    Its the economy...stupid....when middle class can't even go to McDonalds and feed your family for less than $50, bit hard to convince people things are going really well.

    The exit poll was consistently Joe Biden is utter shit, economy is major concern. While Dems tried to keep saying but the economy is ace because Biden was amazing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Pulpstar said:

    Musk's buying of Twitter has probably won this for Trump tbh.

    No it hasn't, the average voter is not on twitter. If Trump wins it will be due to cost of living in the US
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,175
    Four years of rule by the Orange Golgothan.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 21
    Grover Cleveland won the popular vote in all 3 of his Presidential elections. Trump could still lose the popular vote in 3
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Andy_JS said:

    It really is incredible that Trump was written off as a novelty canddiate in 2015, and will end up defining an era and serving two terms spanning more than a decade.

    Because political elites decided to ignore a lot of the real problems that were developing in the country.
    And Wokeness. Trans. White fucking Privilege. And so on and so on and so on
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983

    Pulpstar said:

    Musk's buying of Twitter has probably won this for Trump tbh.

    Its the economy...stupid....when middle class can't even go to McDonalds and feed your family for less than $50, bit hard to convince people things are going really well.
    Blimey is that the cost of a McDs in the USA ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,436
    The Supreme Court will be right wing for decades
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    The NYT needle has moved to a 78% chance of winning for Trump.
  • If anyone is interested, I'm thinking Trump at 300+ ECVs looks tempting
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,195
    edited November 6

    I just can’t fathom looking and listening to Trump and, regardless of Harris’s quality, deciding that he’s fit to he president. Madness.

    I agree. Harris is not great but I’d vote for her in a heartbeat over Trump. Have people forgotten 2016-2020.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Musk's buying of Twitter has probably won this for Trump tbh.

    Its the economy...stupid....when middle class can't even go to McDonalds and feed your family for less than $50, bit hard to convince people things are going really well.
    Blimey is that the cost of a McDs in the USA ?
    $15 is not an uncommon amount for a McDs meal now. Fast Food prices have gone insane. Five Guys is like $30. Combination of food inflation and large minimum wage increases, some states have made minimum wage $15 or $20.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,195
    Iowa called for Trump

    Selzer was an outlier
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,580
    Mourning in America
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Arizona 51% in

    Harris 50%
    Trump 49.2%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983

    Sandpit said:

    NYT latest estimate 291-237 to Trump.

    I've just put in a bet on 300+ ECV for Trump. I think he's going to win all the tossups
    He can't easily get to 330 can he ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Musk's buying of Twitter has probably won this for Trump tbh.

    Its the economy...stupid....when middle class can't even go to McDonalds and feed your family for less than $50, bit hard to convince people things are going really well.
    Blimey is that the cost of a McDs in the USA ?
    People have posted $16 receipts for Big Mac meals.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Ohio projected for Trump
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    320,000 votes in Gwinnett County (one GA county) about to be reported.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Arizona strongly Trump with NYT needle now.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447

    Sandpit said:

    NYT latest estimate 291-237 to Trump.

    I've just put in a bet on 300+ ECV for Trump. I think he's going to win all the tossups
    Yes I think that might well come in, what price did you get?
    2.01 on Betfair . Now in to 1.8
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,436
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Musk's buying of Twitter has probably won this for Trump tbh.

    Its the economy...stupid....when middle class can't even go to McDonalds and feed your family for less than $50, bit hard to convince people things are going really well.
    Blimey is that the cost of a McDs in the USA ?
    People have posted $16 receipts for Big Mac meals.
    They’re not going to get cheaper under Trump
  • If you see the big trend, which is Hispanics moving en masse to the Republicans, decent chance NM goes Red.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    edited November 6
    They've totally mishandled Trump's appearance on the political scene since the moment he turned up in about 2015.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Musk's buying of Twitter has probably won this for Trump tbh.

    Its the economy...stupid....when middle class can't even go to McDonalds and feed your family for less than $50, bit hard to convince people things are going really well.
    Blimey is that the cost of a McDs in the USA ?
    People have posted $16 receipts for Big Mac meals.
    Suggest you google this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Trump has it
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,277
    edited November 6
    Can confirm that it’s incredibly expensive to eat out in the U.S. $30 for two at McDonald’s doesn’t sound impossible.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    edited November 6
    Harris just narrowed the 210k gap in Georgia by around 30k.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,959

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Musk's buying of Twitter has probably won this for Trump tbh.

    Its the economy...stupid....when middle class can't even go to McDonalds and feed your family for less than $50, bit hard to convince people things are going really well.
    Blimey is that the cost of a McDs in the USA ?
    $15 is not an uncommon amount for a McDs meal now. Fast Food prices have gone insane. Five Guys is like $30. Combination of food inflation and large minimum wage increases, some states have made minimum wage $15 or $20.
    Who'd have thought that paying people vastly more than the market rate would raise prices for the goods and services those same people buy?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6

    Can confirm that it’s incredibly expensive to eat out in the U.S. $30 for two at McDonald’s doesn’t sound impossible.

    And historically fast food in the US was incredibly cheap. The $1 menu was a staple of so many places, $5 meal, etc. When I first started going to the US regularly, I was shocked how much people eat out, often most meals of the day, but because so cheap.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    Andy_JS said:

    Harris just narrowed the 210k gap in Georgia by around 30k.

    But her probability of winning went down.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Jonathan said:

    Mourning in America

    And your stupid fucking Labour government enraged the next US President by officially paying for Labour members to campaign for Harris

    Indescribably stupid
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    What they don't seem to understand is that people don't vote for Trump for his positive qualities, it's mostly a protest vote.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,436
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mourning in America

    And your stupid fucking Labour government enraged the next US President by officially paying for Labour members to campaign for Harris

    Indescribably stupid
    Who cares
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Harris just narrowed the 210k gap in Georgia by around 30k.

    But her probability of winning went down.
    Trump “very likely” to win, according to NYT.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Harris just narrowed the 210k gap in Georgia by around 30k.

    But her probability of winning went down.
    Yes, nowhere near enough. It will probably finish with Trump winning by 50-100k votesz
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mourning in America

    And your stupid fucking Labour government enraged the next US President by officially paying for Labour members to campaign for Harris

    Indescribably stupid
    It doesn't really make much difference. Trump doesn't care about the rest of the world outside the US, he doesn't even care about Americans in blue states really. He wants to make America great again through massive tariffs on imports and American isolationism otherwise on the whole in foreign policy beyond support for Israel
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mourning in America

    And your stupid fucking Labour government enraged the next US President by officially paying for Labour members to campaign for Harris

    Indescribably stupid
    Who cares
    Trump, probably.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    It might not last (Probably won't) but WAYNE county is red on the map right now...

    Catastrophic for Harris.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868
    Andy_JS said:

    They've totally mishandled Trump's appearance on the political scene since the moment he turned up in about 2015.

    2011. White House Correspondents Dinner.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    The fat lady is warming up now.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mourning in America

    And your stupid fucking Labour government enraged the next US President by officially paying for Labour members to campaign for Harris

    Indescribably stupid
    Who cares
    We will care when Trump turns on us, you dolt
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,277
    edited November 6
    Andy_JS said:

    What they don't seem to understand is that people don't vote for Trump for his positive qualities, it's mostly a protest vote.

    It’s an explicit desire for disorder, to upend the status quo and rub “their” face in it,
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    Andy_JS said:

    Harris just narrowed the 210k gap in Georgia by around 30k.

    That was Gwinnett coming in.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390
    Wisconsin about to go for Trump, 95% counted and he’s 54-44 up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    CNN showing again Harris doing badly (relatively to normal) in university towns.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    edited November 6
    Not telling Biden to retire earlier when it was obvious he was too elderly was a huge mistake. It was bad for him and bad for everyone else.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    Pulpstar said:

    It might not last (Probably won't) but WAYNE county is red on the map right now...

    Catastrophic for Harris.

    MI now lean Trump on NYT
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    DDHQ called GA for Trump.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Musk's buying of Twitter has probably won this for Trump tbh.

    Its the economy...stupid....when middle class can't even go to McDonalds and feed your family for less than $50, bit hard to convince people things are going really well.
    Blimey is that the cost of a McDs in the USA ?
    People have posted $16 receipts for Big Mac meals.
    Suggest you google this.
    Okay it wasn’t a Big Mac, it was another burger meal. Still $16 for one meal though.
    https://nypost.com/2023/11/04/lifestyle/16-for-a-burger-fries-and-soda-mcdonalds-customers-slam-franchise-fume-its-no-longer-affordable/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    Can confirm that it’s incredibly expensive to eat out in the U.S. $30 for two at McDonald’s doesn’t sound impossible.

    Quite so

    Every time I visit America these days I am stupefied by the costs. I understand a lot of Americans earn healthy wages - esp when compared to Europeans

    But THAT much higher???
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It might not last (Probably won't) but WAYNE county is red on the map right now...

    Catastrophic for Harris.

    MI now lean Trump on NYT
    It’s also now the tipping point state.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    NYT needle at present:

    EC: Trump 296 - Harris 242
    PV: Trump ahead by 0.8%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    Sandpit said:

    Wisconsin about to go for Trump, 95% counted and he’s 54-44 up.

    On the numbers I see it is 50% in with Trump about 1% up
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Leon said:

    Can confirm that it’s incredibly expensive to eat out in the U.S. $30 for two at McDonald’s doesn’t sound impossible.

    Quite so

    Every time I visit America these days I am stupefied by the costs. I understand a lot of Americans earn healthy wages - esp when compared to Europeans

    But THAT much higher???
    Professionals, yes, can be 2-3x the same corporate job in the UK. But the problem is the middle, regular jobs, they are terribly squeezed, much higher food costs, higher rents, constant tips.

    On the professional end, the upside can also be crazy high e.g. OpenAI devs get on average $1 million comp, DeepMind in London aren't getting that, more like £150-200k. Trying to earn much more than that in the UK, you have to start a business or be CEO. US you can earning many $100k's and not be leadership.
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