Best Of

Some former PBers can be found here: https://bsky.app/starter-pack/mattwardman.bsky.social/3lfk4fvp5yv26

Bluesky is Dying

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/bluesky-is-dying/

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I wouldn't use Bluesky, but @Leon has a totally irrational hatred of it, so I pull it up from time to time.

It’s not just me, I believe there was an article recently in some British magazine cruelly mocking Bluesky, which has become one of the most viral articles on social media, in the English speaking world

So, you're saying that a magazine whose readership is mostly right wing, lapped up an article about how a left wing platform is doomed?

Fuck me.

Next thing you'll be telling me that Bibi isn't a big fan of the Guardian.

“Tucker Carlson: “If I were Putin, I would offer free first class trips to Moscow so they could see that Moscow was so much nicer than any place in Great Britain. It's like not even close…It's just weird that they're mad at Putin. Why aren't they mad at Keir Starmer? Britain is so degraded”

https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/1936249722483658821?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

Tucker needs to visit the other 99% of Russia.

I recall Tucker was dead impressed by the supermarkets. There were lots of different types of bread, and they had this clever thing where you slot in a coin on the trolley and it releases it.

So we could perhaps take him on a tour of a Sainsbury’s and change his view of Britain.

The most interesting parts of the header actually concern the LibDems.

Most obviously, until the coalition, the LibDems (and Liberals before them) had essentially the same vote share profile across seats as Reform has now. Hence in the elections of 1974 and 1983, despite polling very well, they walked away with just a handful of seats.

This is because, prior to 2010, the LibDems were - directly contrary to what is stated in the lead - seen by many voters as an outsider party; one outside the cycle of two-party power that wanted to change the system. Hence the Liberals and LibDems picked up a significant NOTA vote (remember the old stickers from the '70s: "Don't blame me, I voted Liberal"), and continued to do so after UKIP came along, since the latter focused on the specific issue of the EU. And the NOTA vote is evenly spread.

The LibDems lost its NOTA role upon entering coalition in 2010, and it has never returned - hence the huge number of seats where now only a tiny % of folks vote LibDem. That this endures after more than a decade is notable, and I suggest four possible explanations:

- the LibDems having participated in power and done a deal with a major party lost them their NOTA voters and this perception (that they proved no better than the big two) endures despite a decade back in opposition;
- the realisation that if they do well, the LibDems could team up with one of the big parties makes it easier for their vote to be squeezed between Tory and Labour in seats where they're not in contention;
- Reform has emerged as the new champions of NOTA.
- the core LibDem voter has shifted towards a more educated/middle class/remainery demographic, likely a consequence of Brexit and the Trump/Farage challenge to globalisation etc.

The LibDems have recovered in prominence not by recovering a high nationwide vote share, but by building a solid vote in former Tory seats mostly in the Home Counties, from combining the support of disaffected Tory voters (which was always a significant source of Liberal votes, away from the celtic fringe) and tactical Labour support. That Labour voters are now so willing to back the LibDems suggests that the 'coalition overhang' has faded (the interesting question being why the coalition is apparently forgiven by Labour voters but not by NOTA voters?).

In which case the explanation as to why the seat totals now are so much better for the LDs than back in the 70s and 80s is simply that there are a lot more disaffected Tory voters around nowadays, with the 2024 tally simply being a higher tide mark than Ashdown's achievement around the turn of the century. Which makes the LD seats heavily reliant on the Tories staying down and out for the foreseeable.