Best Of

In amongst all the unpleasantness, I had a lovely, almost spiritual experience today.
I've been to York for the day with the family. A largely good day with the people I love best, though a few minor gripes of a 49 year old man ("why are we still in Urban Outfitters?" "This museum is a bit depressing" "I'm sure the Shambles was never this busy 30 years ago before Harry Potter" "you have a pudding menu over 60% of which is churros and you are out of churros?") all of which melted away when we returned for a last look at the Minster, having seen there was a light display on through February. It was brilliant. Quite an astonishingly well done bit of artistry on a building I already have a strong emotional reaction to (is it my favourite building? Probably it is.). I could have watched it again and again and again but alas TransPennine Express waits for no man.
But if you have chance in the next two weeks you should see it.

It actually overestimates the USA’s strength, and certainly Russia’s.

Let’s say we get to the point where the UK, France, Scandinavia, maybe Germany, have ramped up defence spending, what happens when the US needs help, and its former allies say “Go fuck yourself.”

Trump believes the US is strong enough never to need friends, it can just bully other nations with no real consequences.

As you say, that's overestimating its strength. Quite grossly so. The US has wielded such enormous influence in the past 80 years because it was the centre of a web of co-operation encompassing the Anglosphere, Europe and chunks of Asia.

An isolated US that has turned friends into enemies will be much diminished.

No, the opposite argument applies. The USA has realised it is no longer willing - or able - to play global policeman. Once it was wealthy and powerful enough to shoulder this burden - yes it did it selfishly, but sometimes altruistically, too

Cf Britain abolishing slavery. We were wealthy and powerful enough to do this, even at some cost to ourselves

Now America has decided: fuck this for a game of soldiers. China is its equal - superior in some ways, inferior in others, but certainly an equal (more than the USSR ever was)

America is therefore retreating to a much more transactional isolationist position - doing only that which expressly benefits USA Inc (opinions on what this is will be divided)

The outraged whining and crying (if you’re German) at this decision is quite a ridiculous spectacle, especially as so much of it comes from lefties who until 3 days ago liked nothing more than berating America for “interfering all over the world”

I could understand, if not approve, the US saying goodbye to Ukraine. It's their making common cause with Russia, by any measure a far weaker power than the USA, that is so despicable.

Vance now arguing on X with the defence editor of the Economist about who knows more about Russian military strength in Ukr.

Vance makes an interesting argument.

The contention I think is Ukraine cannot win, and the only thing getting in the way of a conclusion to the war therefore is Ukraine’s (or even just Zelensky’s) selfish desire to keep defending itself.

A foolish defence which was previously underpinned by “globalists” like Biden.

It all follows that Zelensky is a pain and cannot be let to perpetuate the war; therefore the U.S. should remove its support and let Russia name its terms.

It's a horrible conclusion but that doesn't mean it isn't true. Ukraine may not be able to win without western troops fighting on its behalf which is something that almost certainly was never going to happen.

It might not be able to win but it was also about trying to hold as much of the country as possible . Or should we have just let Putin take over the whole country .

The problem is that "we" aren't the ones dying, and the people who are currently don't have a choice.

i seem to remember you disagreeing very strongly with people on here - @gardenwalker and others - at the beginning of this war who were arguing that Ukraine couldn't win and should accept some kind of peace deal.

so are you now saying that they were right and you were wrong?

Er, I believe it was me - after my first visit to Ukraine in late spring 2023 - who began to point out that they simply couldn’t win due to lack of men. This was emphatically reinforced by my visit in summer 2024. By then I was advocating for a deal

I received vitriolic scorn for it. With the warmongers constantly claiming Ukraine was “about to reach the Sea of Azov” when this was palpable nonsense

It’s a pity @Sean_F is one of these people. The whole geopolitical tragedy of Ukraine has somewhat unhinged him. I hope he regains his sanity

PB is becoming intolerably dumb and @Sean_F is clever

I'm a historian. I know how dangerous it is to throw people to the wolves, in the hope that they'll eat you last.

There is no deal to be done. What Trump wants is his own version of Molotov/Ribbentrop.

Leon is trying , perhaps understandably, to find an angle to continue to support this new right wing movement despite its clear association with Putin, Saying Ukraine was doomed and this is just realpolitik is the latest attempt.

There is no angle. The new right are run from Moscow.