The gender split is key – politicalbetting.com

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The gender split is key – politicalbetting.com

*if* this is the gender gap …– Kamala is only running about the same as Biden among women. Biden won women by 11.– But she losing men by *a lot* more. Biden lost men by 2. https://t.co/xloTRE0GWV

Read the full story here

RobD

First?

HYUFD

It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising

FrancisUrquhart

BREEAKKKKKING NEWSSSS...CNN Exit Poll.....Biden doing better in Arizona than national approval number. Wisconsin his rating below water.

Pulpstar

This really really doesn't surprise me.

rcs1000

Pennsylvania looks absolutely neck-and-neck. The NYTimes worm is at Trump +0.4.

HYUFD

Black vote Trump up to 15% nationally and 40% with Latinos nationally

FrancisUrquhart

NYT needle shifted towards Trump.

rcs1000

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREEAKKKKKING NEWSSSS...CNN Exit Poll.....Biden doing better in Arizona than national approval number. Wisconsin his rating below water.

Wow... let me check my Biden position...

RobD

rcs1000 said:

Pennsylvania looks absolutely neck-and-neck. The NYTimes worm is at Trump +0.4.

A decisive victory compared to FL 2000.

BatteryCorrectHorse

HYUFD said:

It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising

This feels like totally revisionism. The commentary here at the time was almost exactly the same as it is now.

Pulpstar

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

HYUFD said:

It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising

This feels like totally revisionism. The commentary here at the time was almost exactly the same as it is now.

The difference is I had a big old red at this point on Trump in 2020. And the mail came in a lot later last time round.

HYUFD

Pennsylvania divide between graduates for Harris/Biden and non graduates for Trump looks similar to 2020

not_on_fire

Looks like the GOP will get the senate. If Trump wins, expect some of the older conservative Supreme Court judges to retire in the next two years.

Leon

Decision Desk Wiggly Worm now back to 72% for Trump

Eastwinger

Betfair Harris 4.1

Eabhal

Eastwinger said:

Betfair Harris 4.1

I'll bite. Then bed.

DecrepiterJohnL

Trump 1.33
Kamala 4
on Betfair, or 1/3 3/1 in old money, or 75% 25%

Pulpstar

Florida is R +13

Andy_JS

Georgia starting to close now with 35% still to come.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?election-data-id=2024-PG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false

Leon

Eastwinger said:

Betfair Harris 4.1

I think that’s Value. Trump is definitely favourite but the EC etc still makes this a nail biter not a slam dunk

Drutt

HYUFD said:

Black vote Trump up to 15% nationally and 40% with Latinos nationally

Trump has felonies, two baby mommas, and has been in two gunfights in the last three months, and is now winning more black voters? Very racist voting going on here.

BartholomewRoberts

HYUFD said:

It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising

Last time I went to bed with it looking like Trump had won.

RochdalePioneers

Hanging on for the 2am update then going to bed. I don't think we will be anything close to a result when I get up.

Pulpstar

Harris ahead in Kansas.

MarqueeMark

Allred beating Cruz in Texas with 54% counted.

Harris 4% behind with mostly urban to come...

Andy_JS

Pulpstar said:

Harris ahead in Kansas.

Urban areas mostly I think.

williamglenn

Pulpstar said:

Florida is R +13

Polling average +6

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/florida

DoubleCarpet

MarqueeMark said:

Allred beating Cruz in Texas with 54% counted.

Harris 4% behind with mostly urban to come...

She's not going to win Texas.

Pulpstar

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/

AP seems to be quickest.

williamglenn

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

Harry Enten

Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.

rcs1000

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:

Florida is R +13

Polling average +6

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/florida

NYTimes Siena nailed it, mind. Their poll was R +13.

Andy_JS

Leon said:

Eastwinger said:

Betfair Harris 4.1

I think that’s Value. Trump is definitely favourite but the EC etc still makes this a nail biter not a slam dunk

Amusing how punters overreact to events, creating betting opportunities.

TheWhiteRabbit

DoubleCarpet said:

MarqueeMark said:

Allred beating Cruz in Texas with 54% counted.

Harris 4% behind with mostly urban to come...

She's not going to win Texas.

SHe's only 1/2 for the popular vote. A close second in Texas and it's sewn up, surely(?)

FrancisUrquhart

Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.

TheScreamingEagles

Calling it a night.

See you in the morning.

FrancisUrquhart

BREAAAAKKKINNGGG NEWS...CNN Projects Trumps win Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming.

HYUFD

CNN projects Texas and North Dakota and South Dakota and Wyoming for Trump

Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, New Mexico, New York and Wisconsin polls closed no projections there yet

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.

Not really, check the projected vote:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.

Not really, check the projected vote:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html

I should have been more clear, I meant more competitive than last time. He lost by 10%+ last time. I don't think anybody is suggesting he is going to win that state, but important as lots of states around there that are crucial.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

Harry Enten

Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.

True though while Bush won the popular vote in 2004, Kerry won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

Leon

williamglenn said:

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

Harry Enten

Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.

So much for “Puerto Rico-gate”

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.

Not really, check the projected vote:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html

I should have been more clear, I meant more competitive than last time. He lost by 10%+ last time.

Yeah, improved.

Pulpstar

Texas called for Trump way earlier than in 2020. That and the hispanic numbers don't bode well for Harris in Nevada and Arizona imo.

Trump now ahead in Ohio.

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

Harry Enten

Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.

So much for “Puerto Rico-gate”

The exit poll reported hardly anybody decided late.

HYUFD

North Carolina governors race projected for the Democrats

FrancisUrquhart

HYUFD said:

North Carolina governors race projected for the Democrats

That was expected as the GOP candidate was a self proclaimed Black Nazi...and that wasn't his biggest scandal. The GOP couldn't dump him as it was too late when it all came out.

williamglenn

If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

Driver

williamglenn said:

If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

The establishment would portray him as illegitimate anyway. "34 felonies", etc...

rcs1000

The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

FrancisUrquhart

Early reporting, CNN showed another college town, Trump / Harris neck and neck...it shouldn't be close.

Driver

Georgia: Trump +6.6 with 64% in.

MarqueeMark

Georgia still very competitve for Harris, given what has still to report.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

As of now Trump leads the national popular vote with 24.9 million votes to 21.9 million for Harris

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

As of now Trump leads the national popular vote with 24.7 million votes to 21.7 million for Harris

Which is irrelevant right now

rcs1000

williamglenn said:

If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

Could you perhaps describe to me some of the ways in which the establishment claimed he was not the legitimate President? Did his opponent perhaps fail to concede? Or did the incumbent refuser to do a handover?

Do tell.

Sandpit

Morning all. So where are we, Betfair swinging towards Trump but the key state of PA being way too close to call?

BatteryCorrectHorse

Hilary Clinton conceded the election, Trump still hasn't.

FrancisUrquhart

The NYT needle just about at leans Trump now.

Pulpstar

Scores on the doors:

HARRIS 102
TRUMP 170

RobD

The needle almost at lean Trump.

MikeL

Trump GA lead is identical to his GA lead at 9pm ET in 2020.

Is GA still in play?

FrancisUrquhart

BREAAAAAAKING NEEEEEEEWS...CNN predicts Harris wins Delaware.

not_on_fire

MikeL said:

Trump GA lead is identical to his GA lead at 9pm ET in 2020.

Is GA still in play?

No

Cosmic

NYT needle now projecting Harris up just 0.5% in the popular vote.

DoubleCarpet

rcs1000 said:

The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

Yep - I feel like this is almost done, PA is her last shot (assuming MI, WI, Omaha all held).

gettingbetter

rcs1000 said:

The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

And she needs Omaha to get the 270. If she loses that your tie bet could win.

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

Could you perhaps describe to me some of the ways in which the establishment claimed he was not the legitimate President? Did his opponent perhaps fail to concede? Or did the incumbent refuser to do a handover?

Do tell.

Come off it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hillary-clinton-trump-is-an-illegitimate-president/2019/09/26/29195d5a-e099-11e9-b199-f638bf2c340f_story.html

Hillary Clinton: Trump is an 'illegitimate president'

not_on_fire

DoubleCarpet said:

rcs1000 said:

The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

Yep - I feel like this is almost done, PA is her last shot (assuming MI, WI, Omaha all held).

It's now looking entirely possible that Trump wins all the swing states

Pulpstar

gettingbetter said:

rcs1000 said:

The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

And she needs Omaha to get the 270. If she loses that your tie bet could win.

Omaha is pretty safe for her.

RobD

Needle now leaning Trump, 67%.

FrancisUrquhart

NYT is now in Trump lean territory....Trump 285

DoubleCarpet

Surprised how few blue states have been called - eg NY, IL, RI, CT, etc

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

NYT is now in Trump lean territory....Trump 285

Anywhere from Harris+7 to Trump+6

Pulpstar

DoubleCarpet said:

Surprised how few blue states have been called - eg NY, IL, RI, CT, etc

Those are all called by either AP or DDHQ.

Leon

If Trump does win this, just one reason it will be remarkable is the fact that assassin’s bullet literally grazed his ear - about 1.7cm from killing him

Driver

At this stage maybe our best hope is Trump sees being only the second man to win nonconsecutive terms is enough to seal his place in history and dials it back a long way.

I don't think it's a good hope.

RobD

Leon said:

If Trump does win this, just one reason it will be remarkable is the fact that assassin’s bullet literally grazed his ear - about 1.7cm from killing him

Careful, you’ll be flagged.

Andy_JS

The North Carolina exit poll seems to be indicating a dead heat, which is good news for Harris. (It's also what I predicted with my spreadsheet).

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/north-carolina/general/president/0

Gallowgate

America is still horribly divided

FrancisUrquhart

Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

not_on_fire

Andy_JS said:

The North Carolina exit poll seems to be indicating a dead heat, which is good news for Harris. (It's also what I predicted with my spreadsheet).

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/north-carolina/general/president/0

But the NYT needle is giving Trump a 74% chance

Andy_JS

not_on_fire said:

Andy_JS said:

The North Carolina exit poll seems to be indicating a dead heat, which is good news for Harris. (It's also what I predicted with my spreadsheet).

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/north-carolina/general/president/0

But the NYT needle is giving Trump a 74% chance

Interesting.

Pulpstar

harris ahead in IA but it's Des Moines/Polk reporting.

HYUFD

Colorado 18% in Harris 59% Trump 39%

Wisconsin 2% in Trump 62% Harris 37%

Iowa 10% in Harris 58% Trump 41%

Missouri 19% in Harris 56% Trump 43%

Kansas 40% in Harris 52% Trump 47%

New Mexico 11% in Harris 52% Trump 46%

Georgia 73% in Trump 53% Harris 47%

North Carolina 51% in Trump 51% Harris 48%

Michigan 11% in Harris 53% Trump 45%

Pennsylvania 23% in Harris 57% Trump 42%

RobD

Pulpstar said:

harris ahead in IA but it's Des Moines/Polk reporting.

Projection is Trump +8 when all the votes are counted.

Andy_JS

Arizona exit poll has Trump with a slight edge, as expected.

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

PA is pretty much her only route home?

FrancisUrquhart

BREAAKKKKKKINGGGG NEWSSSSSSSSSS....CNN project that Harris wins Illinois and Rhode Island

Andy_JS

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

PA is pretty much her only route home?

In truth it always has been, 90% of the time.

Pulpstar

I THINK I just heard Young voters in Michigan narrowly going for Trump.

Alarm bells for Harris !

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

PA is pretty much her only route home?

If she loses Georgia and North Carolina, needs it.

Pulpstar

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

PA is pretty much her only route home?

Might be cut off at the knees if WI and MI go for Trump.

Andy_JS

Notable that the Ohio exit poll has Harris narrowly winning independents by 49% to 48%.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/ohio/general/president/0

Leon

Worryingly for Harris the DECISION DESK WIGGLY WORM has not budged in half an hour. Trump on 70%

Feels like she now needs something big and soon

Also: I have no idea what I’m talking about and I quite fancy a beer here in sunny but cool Seoul and it’s only 11.30am. So no great change

Pulpstar

Check the age splits in the MI exit poll

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/michigan/general/president/0

Astonishing !!

FrancisUrquhart

Pulpstar said:

I THINK I just heard Young voters in Michigan narrowly going for Trump.

Alarm bells for Harris !

I think its what CNN has been saying, some of the college towns, in early votes, quite close, where as it should be landslide for Harris.

RobD

Leon said:

Worryingly for Harris the DECISION DESK WIGGLY WORM has not budged in half an hour. Trump on 70%

Feels like she now needs something big and soon

You also keeping an eye on the NY times needle?

MikeL

Looks like the Michigan students may well finish Harris even if she does win PA.

But NC still looks competitive.

Maybe PA, NC, WI is her route?

Pulpstar

Young men must have voted for Trump en bloc.

I did think the Harris campaign was dreadfully patronising for male voters.

williamglenn

Pulpstar said:

Check the age splits in the MI exit poll

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/michigan/general/president/0

Astonishing !!

Macronesque. She's relying on boomer liberals.