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The gender split is key – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,131
edited November 6 in General
imageThe gender split is key – politicalbetting.com

*if* this is the gender gap …– Kamala is only running about the same as Biden among women. Biden won women by 11.– But she losing men by *a lot* more. Biden lost men by 2. https://t.co/xloTRE0GWV

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    First?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

    So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    BREEAKKKKKING NEWSSSS...CNN Exit Poll.....Biden doing better in Arizona than national approval number. Wisconsin his rating below water.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    This really really doesn't surprise me.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    Pennsylvania looks absolutely neck-and-neck. The NYTimes worm is at Trump +0.4.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Black vote Trump up to 15% nationally and 40% with Latinos nationally
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    NYT needle shifted towards Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937

    BREEAKKKKKING NEWSSSS...CNN Exit Poll.....Biden doing better in Arizona than national approval number. Wisconsin his rating below water.

    Wow... let me check my Biden position...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    rcs1000 said:

    Pennsylvania looks absolutely neck-and-neck. The NYTimes worm is at Trump +0.4.

    A decisive victory compared to FL 2000.
  • HYUFD said:

    It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

    So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising

    This feels like totally revisionism. The commentary here at the time was almost exactly the same as it is now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983

    HYUFD said:

    It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

    So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising

    This feels like totally revisionism. The commentary here at the time was almost exactly the same as it is now.
    The difference is I had a big old red at this point on Trump in 2020. And the mail came in a lot later last time round.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    Pennsylvania divide between graduates for Harris/Biden and non graduates for Trump looks similar to 2020
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    Looks like the GOP will get the senate. If Trump wins, expect some of the older conservative Supreme Court judges to retire in the next two years.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Decision Desk Wiggly Worm now back to 72% for Trump

  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354
    Betfair Harris 4.1
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,448

    Betfair Harris 4.1

    I'll bite. Then bed.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,599
    Trump 1.33
    Kamala 4
    on Betfair, or 1/3 3/1 in old money, or 75% 25%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Florida is R +13
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    Betfair Harris 4.1

    I think that’s Value. Trump is definitely favourite but the EC etc still makes this a nail biter not a slam dunk
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    HYUFD said:

    Black vote Trump up to 15% nationally and 40% with Latinos nationally

    Trump has felonies, two baby mommas, and has been in two gunfights in the last three months, and is now winning more black voters? Very racist voting going on here.
  • HYUFD said:

    It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

    So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising

    Last time I went to bed with it looking like Trump had won.
  • Hanging on for the 2am update then going to bed. I don't think we will be anything close to a result when I get up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Harris ahead in Kansas.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,368
    Allred beating Cruz in Texas with 54% counted.

    Harris 4% behind with mostly urban to come...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,286
    Pulpstar said:

    Harris ahead in Kansas.

    Urban areas mostly I think.
  • Allred beating Cruz in Texas with 54% counted.

    Harris 4% behind with mostly urban to come...

    She's not going to win Texas.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

    Harry Enten

    Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    NYTimes Siena nailed it, mind. Their poll was R +13.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,286
    Leon said:

    Betfair Harris 4.1

    I think that’s Value. Trump is definitely favourite but the EC etc still makes this a nail biter not a slam dunk
    Amusing how punters overreact to events, creating betting opportunities.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Allred beating Cruz in Texas with 54% counted.

    Harris 4% behind with mostly urban to come...

    She's not going to win Texas.
    SHe's only 1/2 for the popular vote. A close second in Texas and it's sewn up, surely(?)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.
  • Calling it a night.

    See you in the morning.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    BREAAAAKKKINNGGG NEWS...CNN Projects Trumps win Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    CNN projects Texas and North Dakota and South Dakota and Wyoming for Trump

    Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, New Mexico, New York and Wisconsin polls closed no projections there yet
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868

    Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.

    Not really, check the projected vote:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    edited November 6
    RobD said:

    Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.

    Not really, check the projected vote:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html
    I should have been more clear, I meant more competitive than last time. He lost by 10%+ last time. I don't think anybody is suggesting he is going to win that state, but important as lots of states around there that are crucial.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

    Harry Enten

    Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.

    True though while Bush won the popular vote in 2004, Kerry won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

    Harry Enten

    Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.

    So much for “Puerto Rico-gate”
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868

    RobD said:

    Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.

    Not really, check the projected vote:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html
    I should have been more clear, I meant more competitive than last time. He lost by 10%+ last time.
    Yeah, improved.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Texas called for Trump way earlier than in 2020. That and the hispanic numbers don't bode well for Harris in Nevada and Arizona imo.

    Trump now ahead in Ohio.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    Leon said:

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

    Harry Enten

    Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.

    So much for “Puerto Rico-gate”
    The exit poll reported hardly anybody decided late.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    North Carolina governors race projected for the Democrats
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    edited November 6
    HYUFD said:

    North Carolina governors race projected for the Democrats

    That was expected as the GOP candidate was a self proclaimed Black Nazi...and that wasn't his biggest scandal. The GOP couldn't dump him as it was too late when it all came out.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868

    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

    The establishment would portray him as illegitimate anyway. "34 felonies", etc...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

    Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

    There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    Early reporting, CNN showed another college town, Trump / Harris neck and neck...it shouldn't be close.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868
    Georgia: Trump +6.6 with 64% in.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,368
    Georgia still very competitve for Harris, given what has still to report.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6

    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

    As of now Trump leads the national popular vote with 24.9 million votes to 21.9 million for Harris
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,436
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

    As of now Trump leads the national popular vote with 24.7 million votes to 21.7 million for Harris
    Which is irrelevant right now
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937

    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

    Could you perhaps describe to me some of the ways in which the establishment claimed he was not the legitimate President? Did his opponent perhaps fail to concede? Or did the incumbent refuser to do a handover?

    Do tell.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,390
    Morning all. So where are we, Betfair swinging towards Trump but the key state of PA being way too close to call?
  • Hilary Clinton conceded the election, Trump still hasn't.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    The NYT needle just about at leans Trump now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Scores on the doors:

    HARRIS 102
    TRUMP 170
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    The needle almost at lean Trump.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    Trump GA lead is identical to his GA lead at 9pm ET in 2020.

    Is GA still in play?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    BREAAAAAAKING NEEEEEEEWS...CNN predicts Harris wins Delaware.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    MikeL said:

    Trump GA lead is identical to his GA lead at 9pm ET in 2020.

    Is GA still in play?

    No
  • CosmicCosmic Posts: 34
    NYT needle now projecting Harris up just 0.5% in the popular vote.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

    Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

    There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

    Yep - I feel like this is almost done, PA is her last shot (assuming MI, WI, Omaha all held).
  • rcs1000 said:

    The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

    Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

    There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

    And she needs Omaha to get the 270. If she loses that your tie bet could win.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    rcs1000 said:

    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

    Could you perhaps describe to me some of the ways in which the establishment claimed he was not the legitimate President? Did his opponent perhaps fail to concede? Or did the incumbent refuser to do a handover?

    Do tell.
    Come off it.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hillary-clinton-trump-is-an-illegitimate-president/2019/09/26/29195d5a-e099-11e9-b199-f638bf2c340f_story.html

    Hillary Clinton: Trump is an 'illegitimate president'
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447

    rcs1000 said:

    The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

    Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

    There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

    Yep - I feel like this is almost done, PA is her last shot (assuming MI, WI, Omaha all held).
    It's now looking entirely possible that Trump wins all the swing states
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983

    rcs1000 said:

    The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

    Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

    There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

    And she needs Omaha to get the 270. If she loses that your tie bet could win.
    Omaha is pretty safe for her.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    Needle now leaning Trump, 67%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    edited November 6
    NYT is now in Trump lean territory....Trump 285
  • Surprised how few blue states have been called - eg NY, IL, RI, CT, etc
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868

    NYT is now in Trump lean territory....Trump 285

    Anywhere from Harris+7 to Trump+6 :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983

    Surprised how few blue states have been called - eg NY, IL, RI, CT, etc

    Those are all called by either AP or DDHQ.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    If Trump does win this, just one reason it will be remarkable is the fact that assassin’s bullet literally grazed his ear - about 1.7cm from killing him
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868
    At this stage maybe our best hope is Trump sees being only the second man to win nonconsecutive terms is enough to seal his place in history and dials it back a long way.

    I don't think it's a good hope.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    Leon said:

    If Trump does win this, just one reason it will be remarkable is the fact that assassin’s bullet literally grazed his ear - about 1.7cm from killing him

    Careful, you’ll be flagged.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,286
    edited November 6
    The North Carolina exit poll seems to be indicating a dead heat, which is good news for Harris. (It's also what I predicted with my spreadsheet).

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/north-carolina/general/president/0
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,436
    America is still horribly divided
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    edited November 6
    Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    Andy_JS said:

    The North Carolina exit poll seems to be indicating a dead heat, which is good news for Harris. (It's also what I predicted with my spreadsheet).

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/north-carolina/general/president/0

    But the NYT needle is giving Trump a 74% chance
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,286

    Andy_JS said:

    The North Carolina exit poll seems to be indicating a dead heat, which is good news for Harris. (It's also what I predicted with my spreadsheet).

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/north-carolina/general/president/0

    But the NYT needle is giving Trump a 74% chance
    Interesting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    harris ahead in IA but it's Des Moines/Polk reporting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    Colorado 18% in Harris 59% Trump 39%

    Wisconsin 2% in Trump 62% Harris 37%

    Iowa 10% in Harris 58% Trump 41%

    Missouri 19% in Harris 56% Trump 43%

    Kansas 40% in Harris 52% Trump 47%

    New Mexico 11% in Harris 52% Trump 46%

    Georgia 73% in Trump 53% Harris 47%

    North Carolina 51% in Trump 51% Harris 48%

    Michigan 11% in Harris 53% Trump 45%

    Pennsylvania 23% in Harris 57% Trump 42%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    Pulpstar said:

    harris ahead in IA but it's Des Moines/Polk reporting.

    Projection is Trump +8 when all the votes are counted.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,286
    Arizona exit poll has Trump with a slight edge, as expected.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

    PA is pretty much her only route home?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    BREAAKKKKKKINGGGG NEWSSSSSSSSSS....CNN project that Harris wins Illinois and Rhode Island
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,286
    Leon said:

    Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

    PA is pretty much her only route home?
    In truth it always has been, 90% of the time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    I THINK I just heard Young voters in Michigan narrowly going for Trump.

    Alarm bells for Harris !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    edited November 6
    Leon said:

    Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

    PA is pretty much her only route home?
    If she loses Georgia and North Carolina, needs it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Leon said:

    Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

    PA is pretty much her only route home?
    Might be cut off at the knees if WI and MI go for Trump.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,286
    Notable that the Ohio exit poll has Harris narrowly winning independents by 49% to 48%.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/ohio/general/president/0
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    edited November 6
    Worryingly for Harris the DECISION DESK WIGGLY WORM has not budged in half an hour. Trump on 70%

    Feels like she now needs something big and soon

    Also: I have no idea what I’m talking about and I quite fancy a beer here in sunny but cool Seoul and it’s only 11.30am. So no great change
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Check the age splits in the MI exit poll

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/michigan/general/president/0

    Astonishing !!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,624
    edited November 6
    Pulpstar said:

    I THINK I just heard Young voters in Michigan narrowly going for Trump.

    Alarm bells for Harris !

    I think its what CNN has been saying, some of the college towns, in early votes, quite close, where as it should be landslide for Harris.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    Leon said:

    Worryingly for Harris the DECISION DESK WIGGLY WORM has not budged in half an hour. Trump on 70%

    Feels like she now needs something big and soon

    You also keeping an eye on the NY times needle?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    Looks like the Michigan students may well finish Harris even if she does win PA.

    But NC still looks competitive.

    Maybe PA, NC, WI is her route?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    edited November 6
    Young men must have voted for Trump en bloc.

    I did think the Harris campaign was dreadfully patronising for male voters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    Pulpstar said:

    Check the age splits in the MI exit poll

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/michigan/general/president/0

    Astonishing !!

    Macronesque. She's relying on boomer liberals.
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