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The gender split is key – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,157
edited November 10 in General
imageThe gender split is key – politicalbetting.com

*if* this is the gender gap …– Kamala is only running about the same as Biden among women. Biden won women by 11.– But she losing men by *a lot* more. Biden lost men by 2. https://t.co/xloTRE0GWV

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    First?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

    So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    BREEAKKKKKING NEWSSSS...CNN Exit Poll.....Biden doing better in Arizona than national approval number. Wisconsin his rating below water.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    This really really doesn't surprise me.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Pennsylvania looks absolutely neck-and-neck. The NYTimes worm is at Trump +0.4.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Black vote Trump up to 15% nationally and 40% with Latinos nationally
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    NYT needle shifted towards Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BREEAKKKKKING NEWSSSS...CNN Exit Poll.....Biden doing better in Arizona than national approval number. Wisconsin his rating below water.

    Wow... let me check my Biden position...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    rcs1000 said:

    Pennsylvania looks absolutely neck-and-neck. The NYTimes worm is at Trump +0.4.

    A decisive victory compared to FL 2000.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,635
    HYUFD said:

    It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

    So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising

    This feels like totally revisionism. The commentary here at the time was almost exactly the same as it is now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

    So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising

    This feels like totally revisionism. The commentary here at the time was almost exactly the same as it is now.
    The difference is I had a big old red at this point on Trump in 2020. And the mail came in a lot later last time round.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited November 6
    Pennsylvania divide between graduates for Harris/Biden and non graduates for Trump looks similar to 2020
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Looks like the GOP will get the senate. If Trump wins, expect some of the older conservative Supreme Court judges to retire in the next two years.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,219
    Decision Desk Wiggly Worm now back to 72% for Trump

  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354
    Betfair Harris 4.1
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,629
    Eastwinger said:

    Betfair Harris 4.1

    I'll bite. Then bed.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,828
    Trump 1.33
    Kamala 4
    on Betfair, or 1/3 3/1 in old money, or 75% 25%
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    Georgia starting to close now with 35% still to come.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?election-data-id=2024-PG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    Florida is R +13
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,219
    Eastwinger said:

    Betfair Harris 4.1

    I think that’s Value. Trump is definitely favourite but the EC etc still makes this a nail biter not a slam dunk
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    HYUFD said:

    Black vote Trump up to 15% nationally and 40% with Latinos nationally

    Trump has felonies, two baby mommas, and has been in two gunfights in the last three months, and is now winning more black voters? Very racist voting going on here.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    HYUFD said:

    It is as of now a neck and neck race, not a clear Biden lead at this stage as was the case in 2020.

    So Harris holding on with women but Trump making gains with men not that surprising

    Last time I went to bed with it looking like Trump had won.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,891
    Hanging on for the 2am update then going to bed. I don't think we will be anything close to a result when I get up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    Harris ahead in Kansas.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,530
    Allred beating Cruz in Texas with 54% counted.

    Harris 4% behind with mostly urban to come...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    Pulpstar said:

    Harris ahead in Kansas.

    Urban areas mostly I think.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,573
    Pulpstar said:

    Florida is R +13

    Polling average +6

    https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/florida
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    MarqueeMark said:

    Allred beating Cruz in Texas with 54% counted.

    Harris 4% behind with mostly urban to come...

    She's not going to win Texas.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/

    AP seems to be quickest.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,573
    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

    Harry Enten

    Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    williamglenn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Florida is R +13

    Polling average +6

    https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/florida
    NYTimes Siena nailed it, mind. Their poll was R +13.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    Leon said:

    Eastwinger said:

    Betfair Harris 4.1

    I think that’s Value. Trump is definitely favourite but the EC etc still makes this a nail biter not a slam dunk
    Amusing how punters overreact to events, creating betting opportunities.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    DoubleCarpet said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Allred beating Cruz in Texas with 54% counted.

    Harris 4% behind with mostly urban to come...

    She's not going to win Texas.
    SHe's only 1/2 for the popular vote. A close second in Texas and it's sewn up, surely(?)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,587
    Calling it a night.

    See you in the morning.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    BREAAAAKKKINNGGG NEWS...CNN Projects Trumps win Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    CNN projects Texas and North Dakota and South Dakota and Wyoming for Trump

    Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, New Mexico, New York and Wisconsin polls closed no projections there yet
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.

    Not really, check the projected vote:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    edited November 6
    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.

    Not really, check the projected vote:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html
    I should have been more clear, I meant more competitive than last time. He lost by 10%+ last time. I don't think anybody is suggesting he is going to win that state, but important as lots of states around there that are crucial.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    williamglenn said:

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

    Harry Enten

    Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.

    True though while Bush won the popular vote in 2004, Kerry won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,219
    williamglenn said:

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

    Harry Enten

    Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.

    So much for “Puerto Rico-gate”
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    RobD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Trump seems to be competitive in Virginia.

    Not really, check the projected vote:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html
    I should have been more clear, I meant more competitive than last time. He lost by 10%+ last time.
    Yeah, improved.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    Texas called for Trump way earlier than in 2020. That and the hispanic numbers don't bode well for Harris in Nevada and Arizona imo.

    Trump now ahead in Ohio.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    Leon said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/?iid=elections2024_livechat_post

    Harry Enten

    Here's one for you: Trump is down only by 8 points among Hispanic voters in the current exit poll numbers. If that holds, that would be by far the best national performance for a GOP presidential nominee since George W. Bush in 2004.

    So much for “Puerto Rico-gate”
    The exit poll reported hardly anybody decided late.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    North Carolina governors race projected for the Democrats
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    edited November 6
    HYUFD said:

    North Carolina governors race projected for the Democrats

    That was expected as the GOP candidate was a self proclaimed Black Nazi...and that wasn't his biggest scandal. The GOP couldn't dump him as it was too late when it all came out.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,573
    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    williamglenn said:

    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

    The establishment would portray him as illegitimate anyway. "34 felonies", etc...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

    Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

    There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    Early reporting, CNN showed another college town, Trump / Harris neck and neck...it shouldn't be close.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Georgia: Trump +6.6 with 64% in.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,530
    Georgia still very competitve for Harris, given what has still to report.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited November 6
    williamglenn said:

    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

    As of now Trump leads the national popular vote with 24.9 million votes to 21.9 million for Harris
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,453
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

    As of now Trump leads the national popular vote with 24.7 million votes to 21.7 million for Harris
    Which is irrelevant right now
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    williamglenn said:

    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

    Could you perhaps describe to me some of the ways in which the establishment claimed he was not the legitimate President? Did his opponent perhaps fail to concede? Or did the incumbent refuser to do a handover?

    Do tell.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    Morning all. So where are we, Betfair swinging towards Trump but the key state of PA being way too close to call?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,635
    Hilary Clinton conceded the election, Trump still hasn't.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    The NYT needle just about at leans Trump now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    Scores on the doors:

    HARRIS 102
    TRUMP 170
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    The needle almost at lean Trump.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    Trump GA lead is identical to his GA lead at 9pm ET in 2020.

    Is GA still in play?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    BREAAAAAAKING NEEEEEEEWS...CNN predicts Harris wins Delaware.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    MikeL said:

    Trump GA lead is identical to his GA lead at 9pm ET in 2020.

    Is GA still in play?

    No
  • CosmicCosmic Posts: 34
    NYT needle now projecting Harris up just 0.5% in the popular vote.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    rcs1000 said:

    The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

    Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

    There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

    Yep - I feel like this is almost done, PA is her last shot (assuming MI, WI, Omaha all held).
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 551
    rcs1000 said:

    The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

    Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

    There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

    And she needs Omaha to get the 270. If she loses that your tie bet could win.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,573
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    If Trump does win, I hope he wins the popular vote too so we don't have a repeat of 2016 when most of the establishment encouraged the view that he was illegitimate.

    Could you perhaps describe to me some of the ways in which the establishment claimed he was not the legitimate President? Did his opponent perhaps fail to concede? Or did the incumbent refuser to do a handover?

    Do tell.
    Come off it.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hillary-clinton-trump-is-an-illegitimate-president/2019/09/26/29195d5a-e099-11e9-b199-f638bf2c340f_story.html

    Hillary Clinton: Trump is an 'illegitimate president'
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    DoubleCarpet said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

    Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

    There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

    Yep - I feel like this is almost done, PA is her last shot (assuming MI, WI, Omaha all held).
    It's now looking entirely possible that Trump wins all the swing states
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    gettingbetter said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The only route for Harris right now is @HYUFD's: WI, MI and PA.

    Right now, there's no votes in from WI, MI looks like a coin toss, and PA is leaning Trump. (The needle has edged from T+0.3 to T+0.5)

    There's a chance for her; but it really is a one-in-four, at best.

    And she needs Omaha to get the 270. If she loses that your tie bet could win.
    Omaha is pretty safe for her.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    Needle now leaning Trump, 67%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    edited November 6
    NYT is now in Trump lean territory....Trump 285
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    Surprised how few blue states have been called - eg NY, IL, RI, CT, etc
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NYT is now in Trump lean territory....Trump 285

    Anywhere from Harris+7 to Trump+6 :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Surprised how few blue states have been called - eg NY, IL, RI, CT, etc

    Those are all called by either AP or DDHQ.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,219
    If Trump does win this, just one reason it will be remarkable is the fact that assassin’s bullet literally grazed his ear - about 1.7cm from killing him
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    At this stage maybe our best hope is Trump sees being only the second man to win nonconsecutive terms is enough to seal his place in history and dials it back a long way.

    I don't think it's a good hope.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    Leon said:

    If Trump does win this, just one reason it will be remarkable is the fact that assassin’s bullet literally grazed his ear - about 1.7cm from killing him

    Careful, you’ll be flagged.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    edited November 6
    The North Carolina exit poll seems to be indicating a dead heat, which is good news for Harris. (It's also what I predicted with my spreadsheet).

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/north-carolina/general/president/0
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,453
    America is still horribly divided
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    edited November 6
    Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Andy_JS said:

    The North Carolina exit poll seems to be indicating a dead heat, which is good news for Harris. (It's also what I predicted with my spreadsheet).

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/north-carolina/general/president/0

    But the NYT needle is giving Trump a 74% chance
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    not_on_fire said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The North Carolina exit poll seems to be indicating a dead heat, which is good news for Harris. (It's also what I predicted with my spreadsheet).

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/north-carolina/general/president/0

    But the NYT needle is giving Trump a 74% chance
    Interesting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    harris ahead in IA but it's Des Moines/Polk reporting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited November 6
    Colorado 18% in Harris 59% Trump 39%

    Wisconsin 2% in Trump 62% Harris 37%

    Iowa 10% in Harris 58% Trump 41%

    Missouri 19% in Harris 56% Trump 43%

    Kansas 40% in Harris 52% Trump 47%

    New Mexico 11% in Harris 52% Trump 46%

    Georgia 73% in Trump 53% Harris 47%

    North Carolina 51% in Trump 51% Harris 48%

    Michigan 11% in Harris 53% Trump 45%

    Pennsylvania 23% in Harris 57% Trump 42%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    Pulpstar said:

    harris ahead in IA but it's Des Moines/Polk reporting.

    Projection is Trump +8 when all the votes are counted.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    Arizona exit poll has Trump with a slight edge, as expected.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,219
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

    PA is pretty much her only route home?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    BREAAKKKKKKINGGGG NEWSSSSSSSSSS....CNN project that Harris wins Illinois and Rhode Island
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

    PA is pretty much her only route home?
    In truth it always has been, 90% of the time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    I THINK I just heard Young voters in Michigan narrowly going for Trump.

    Alarm bells for Harris !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    edited November 6
    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

    PA is pretty much her only route home?
    If she loses Georgia and North Carolina, needs it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Harris seems to be doing better in Penn than last time (but still early).

    PA is pretty much her only route home?
    Might be cut off at the knees if WI and MI go for Trump.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    Notable that the Ohio exit poll has Harris narrowly winning independents by 49% to 48%.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/ohio/general/president/0
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,219
    edited November 6
    Worryingly for Harris the DECISION DESK WIGGLY WORM has not budged in half an hour. Trump on 70%

    Feels like she now needs something big and soon

    Also: I have no idea what I’m talking about and I quite fancy a beer here in sunny but cool Seoul and it’s only 11.30am. So no great change
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    Check the age splits in the MI exit poll

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/michigan/general/president/0

    Astonishing !!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,956
    edited November 6
    Pulpstar said:

    I THINK I just heard Young voters in Michigan narrowly going for Trump.

    Alarm bells for Harris !

    I think its what CNN has been saying, some of the college towns, in early votes, quite close, where as it should be landslide for Harris.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,925
    Leon said:

    Worryingly for Harris the DECISION DESK WIGGLY WORM has not budged in half an hour. Trump on 70%

    Feels like she now needs something big and soon

    You also keeping an eye on the NY times needle?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    Looks like the Michigan students may well finish Harris even if she does win PA.

    But NC still looks competitive.

    Maybe PA, NC, WI is her route?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,150
    edited November 6
    Young men must have voted for Trump en bloc.

    I did think the Harris campaign was dreadfully patronising for male voters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,573
    Pulpstar said:

    Check the age splits in the MI exit poll

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/michigan/general/president/0

    Astonishing !!

    Macronesque. She's relying on boomer liberals.
This discussion has been closed.