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The gender split is key – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 6
    Pulpstar said:

    Check the age splits in the MI exit poll

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/michigan/general/president/0

    Astonishing !!

    Trump 62% with Latinos !!!! Doesn't seem correct somehow.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Ok wow

    BREAKINGGGG

    THIS IS POTENTIALLY THE BIG GAME CHANGER

    I’ve just noticed there’s a barber right outside my hotel and I may get a haircut
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    Leon said:

    Ok wow

    BREAKINGGGG

    THIS IS POTENTIALLY THE BIG GAME CHANGER

    I’ve just noticed there’s a barber right outside my hotel and I may get a haircut

    Are you paying cash ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    edited November 6
    Pulpstar said:

    Check the age splits in the MI exit poll

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/michigan/general/president/0

    Astonishing !!

    That's the complete opposite of what I've just seen on the Ohio exit poll. Harris narrowly ahead with everyone apart from the 45-64 age group where Trump is ahead by 61-39.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/ohio/general/president/0
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Pulpstar said:

    Young men must have voted for Trump en bloc.

    I did think the Harris campaign was dreadfully patronising for male voters.

    The young are moving right across the western world - especially men but women are following
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    I think Iowa might be relatively good for Harris given she seems to be doing Ok with boomers. Pity for her it's only worth 4 EVs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Catching up, this seems like it’s closer than 2020 at the same stage. A couple of points’ swing towards Trump, which leaves it closer overall.
  • CosmicCosmic Posts: 34
    I really think Trump could win the popular vote, based on the NYT needle and exit poll breakdowns.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    Harris out to 4.4.

    So tempting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j3dyzsiucbbcCLH2jg3KtpcHTRkbgXoelDQ4ziysqsA/edit?usp=sharing
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Cosmic said:

    I really think Trump could win the popular vote, based on the NYT needle and exit poll breakdowns.

    He’d be even more insufferable!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    I still have hope for my Trump NM bet lol
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    GA - 1.5m ballots still to count.

    Trump leads by 244k.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    edited November 6
    Michigan now the most likely tipping point state according to the needle.

    Edit: nope. Back to PA.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    Eabhal said:

    Harris out to 4.4.

    So tempting.

    5.1.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 6
    CNN now starting to do the "finding votes" that could swing it back to Harris...reminds me a bit like Brexit vote.

    While the NYT needle nudging again towards Trump.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Ohio called for Trump.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,974
    Trump win %

    Betfair 79.4
    Polymarket 79.4
    NYT 69
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    BREAKKKKKINNNGGGG NEWSSS...CNN project Harris wins NY.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited November 6
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Young men must have voted for Trump en bloc.

    I did think the Harris campaign was dreadfully patronising for male voters.

    The young are moving right across the western world - especially men but women are following
    Sometimes to the populist right not the mainstream right, 45-64s best for Trump still even in Michigan
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Trump has surely got this

    BRACE
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BREAKKKKKINNNGGGG NEWSSS...CNN project Harris wins NY.

    FU keeps on BREAKKKKKINNNGGGG WINDDD . . .
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Zelensky must be sitting himself as Trump into 1.25
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    North Carolina hasn't been called by CNN or NYT.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 53
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Harris out to 4.4.

    So tempting.

    5.1.
    Biden went out to 5 on betfair in 2020, not sure if he went higher? the tight race in Virginia reminds me of 2016, took ages to declare for Clinton
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    While CNN were doing the "finding votes" in Georgia, NYT has Georgia 77% chance for Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited November 6
    MikeL said:

    Looks like the Michigan students may well finish Harris even if she does win PA.

    But NC still looks competitive.

    Maybe PA, NC, WI is her route?

    Harris still leads in Michigan 53% to 45% with 13% in
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    Leon said:

    Trump has surely got this

    BRACE

    Georgia votes remaining still very Harris-heavy counties.

    Philadelphia still looking OK for Harris too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    bigjohnowls said:

    Zelensky must be sitting himself as Trump into 1.25

    The Ukrainians shouldn’t have missed in Pennsylvania
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    edited November 6
    All results are as expected so far except Florida where Trump did better than I expected.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    MarqueeMark said:

    Leon said:

    Trump has surely got this

    BRACE

    Georgia votes remaining still very Harris-heavy counties.

    Philadelphia still looking OK for Harris too.
    Also a notable dip in the DECISION DESK WIGGLY WORM - Trump down from 70 to 65….

    Maybe not quite over yet
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited November 6
    bigjohnowls said:

    Zelensky must be sitting himself as Trump into 1.25

    Look if Trump wins all of Europe and Canada are going to have to increase our military spending and fund Zelensky as Trump will slash his support. If not Putin could in theory march across Eastern Europe if Trump withdraws from NATO and rebuild the Eastern block.

    Trump would impose massive tariffs on imports from China and the EU and to some extent us so we would also be heading for the biggest trade war since the 1930s, especially as he will almost certainly have a GOP Congress it seems too
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Decision Desk has:

    Trump 89 million votes
    Harris 70 million votes

    What are these numbers?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Andy_JS said:

    All results are as expected so far except Florida where Trump did better than I expected.

    Andy why does NYT think Harris only wins popular vote by 0.3%?
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    pound, euro and US bonds falling in overnight mkts. us stock market up.
    Mexican peso down too.
    guess that's consistent with a trump win..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    Harris down again in another super liberal college town.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    llef said:

    pound, euro and US bonds falling in overnight mkts. us stock market up.
    Mexican peso down too.
    guess that's consistent with a trump win..

    Crypto still rising.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    llef said:

    pound, euro and US bonds falling in overnight mkts. us stock market up.
    Mexican peso down too.
    guess that's consistent with a trump win..

    Dios Mio. Mind you, I'm up four figures on the crypto.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    MikeL said:

    Decision Desk has:

    Trump 89 million votes
    Harris 70 million votes

    What are these numbers?

    Should be votes counted so far, but:

    Their numbers for Florida are wrong, 10x what they should be.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Trump is winning among people in PA who think democracy in the US is threatened:

    https://x.com/eriktelford/status/1853980137445835210
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    Decision Desk has:

    Trump 89 million votes
    Harris 70 million votes

    What are these numbers?

    Should be votes counted so far, but:

    Their numbers for Florida are wrong, 10x what they should be.
    Hah!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    Decision Desk has called VA for Kamala
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 6
    NYT now have NC at 79% and Georgia at 82% chance for Trump.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521
    Leon said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Zelensky must be sitting himself as Trump into 1.25

    The Ukrainians shouldn’t have missed in Pennsylvania
    We’d have got Vance, who’s even further up Putin’s colon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Georgia starting to look more interesting for Harris.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    Decision Desk has:

    Trump 89 million votes
    Harris 70 million votes

    What are these numbers?

    Should be votes counted so far, but:

    Their numbers for Florida are wrong, 10x what they should be.
    Pretty basic error - and it's been wrong for quite a while.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Hopefully next election we won't ber
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    All results are as expected so far except Florida where Trump did better than I expected.

    Andy why does NYT think Harris only wins popular vote by 0.3%?
    Trump winning the PV may be worth a punt
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    williamglenn said:

    Trump is winning among people in PA who think democracy in the US is threatened:

    https://x.com/eriktelford/status/1853980137445835210

    I honestly think some young males would vote for Hitler now, so much for learning the lessons of the past
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    All results are as expected so far except Florida where Trump did better than I expected.

    Andy why does NYT think Harris only wins popular vote by 0.3%?
    I was talking about states not popular vote, but maybe they have information about California.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    viewcode said:

    Decision Desk has called VA for Kamala

    They also predict Kamala winning PA yet Trump winning overall 🤷🏼‍♂️
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Andy_JS said:

    All results are as expected so far except Florida where Trump did better than I expected.

    To clarify this is in terms of states not overall popular vote.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    NYT ticks further to Trump
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    NYT are obviously seeing something in the data that makes their model very confident in Georgia and NC.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump is winning among people in PA who think democracy in the US is threatened:

    https://x.com/eriktelford/status/1853980137445835210

    I honestly think some young males would vote for Hitler now, so much for learning the lessons of the past
    Can you honestly not think of very very valid reasons why young men - especially young white men - would vote for the hard or populist right after the last decade or two?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NYT are obviously seeing something in the data that makes their model very confident in Georgia and NC.

    There just aren't enough votes left in the urban areas to overcome Trump's lead, it's as simple as that
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 6
    not_on_fire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NYT are obviously seeing something in the data that makes their model very confident in Georgia and NC.

    There just aren't enough votes left in the urban areas to overcome Trump's lead, it's as simple as that
    Well CNN keep doing we can find the votes narrative....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Wisconsin 26% in

    Harris 49.4%
    Trump 49.1%
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump is winning among people in PA who think democracy in the US is threatened:

    https://x.com/eriktelford/status/1853980137445835210

    I honestly think some young males would vote for Hitler now, so much for learning the lessons of the past
    Can you honestly not think of very very valid reasons why young men - especially young white men - would vote for the hard or populist right after the last decade or two?
    I can certainly think of reasons - but I can't think of any valid ones
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NYT are obviously seeing something in the data that makes their model very confident in Georgia and NC.

    You can make a firm projection, based upon how many votes are left to be counted in each county, and how each county has swung, compared to 2020.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    Decision Desk has called VA for Kamala

    I could do that with zero votes reported.

    Decison Desk is crap.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    The Hill puts Trump's chances at 54%. Less than other sites.

    https://thehill.com
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    not_on_fire said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    NYT are obviously seeing something in the data that makes their model very confident in Georgia and NC.

    There just aren't enough votes left in the urban areas to overcome Trump's lead, it's as simple as that
    Well CNN keep doing we can find the votes narrative....
    Well of course - as soon as it becomes clear the election is over, viewers will switch off.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Decision Desk has called VA for Kamala

    I could do that with zero votes reported.

    Decison Desk is crap.
    NY Times hasn’t called it, although I think most of these calls come from AP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited November 6
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Decision Desk has called VA for Kamala

    I could do that with zero votes reported.

    Decison Desk is crap.
    If so as of now Harris wins the EC as she is still leading in Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania even as Trump still leads the popular vote and in Georgia and North Carolina, Ohio and Florida
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 6
    BREAAAAAKKKING NEEEEWSSSS...CNN project Trump wins Louisiana.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Decision Desk has called VA for Kamala

    I could do that with zero votes reported.

    Decison Desk is crap.
    Mate. They’ve got a POTUS ELECTION WIGGLY WORM

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Re: PA note that according to NYT:

    Counting is expected to extend beyond election night, primarily because election workers are not allowed to start processing mail ballots until Election Day.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    Harris is going to win Virginia, but it is significantly closer than 2020.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    CNN reporting that in one of the most Puerto Rican counties in Florida, Trump knocked it out of the park
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Harris is going to win Virginia, but it is significantly closer than 2020.

    We still haven't had the big moment of a state being uncalled yet.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,317
    I don’t think we’re going to see confident calls tonight in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

    Maybe worth staying up another hour or so to see how Georgia and North Carolina pan out.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Gardenwalker said:

    I don’t think we’re going to see confident calls tonight in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

    Maybe worth staying up another hour or so to see how Georgia and North Carolina pan out.

    That’s my plan… PA might take forever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited November 6
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Harris is going to win Virginia, but it is significantly closer than 2020.

    Making a Trump narrow popular vote win, Harris EC narrow win increasingly possible.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    RobD said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Decision Desk has called VA for Kamala

    I could do that with zero votes reported.

    Decison Desk is crap.
    NY Times hasn’t called it, although I think most of these calls come from AP.
    Believe that's correct; also believe that they have pretty high standards re: calling states. To protect themselves from having to un-call them!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,317
    RobD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    I don’t think we’re going to see confident calls tonight in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

    Maybe worth staying up another hour or so to see how Georgia and North Carolina pan out.

    That’s my plan… PA might take forever.
    Easier for me to stay up of course. It’s not yet 10pm here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Harris is going to win Virginia, but it is significantly closer than 2020.

    Making a Trump narrow popular vote win, Harris EC narrow win increasingly possible
    Not according to NYT model.
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 460
    Andy_JS said:

    Georgia starting to look more interesting for Harris.

    200k behind. 400k to count. Unlikely.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Trump just edged ahead in Virginia with 65% counted.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited November 6
    BREAKKKKKKKKKKKKKING NEWS....CNN Exit Poll for Nevada, Democracy / Economy most important issue, 48% financial situation worse...but illegal immigrants right to gain citizenship high.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Florida count complete in 150 minutes. They could all do this if they wanted to.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Why trust Decision Desk when they literally cannot input the Florida votes correctly?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Although at 40% counted, PA is looking a little more promising for Trump.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 891
    williamglenn said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Harris is going to win Virginia, but it is significantly closer than 2020.

    We still haven't had the big moment of a state being uncalled yet.
    I've only ever seen 2 wrong state calls out of the last 500 - FL in 2000 & CA in 1988.

    So you might be waiting a while.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    One things for sure, no one will be talking about Ann Selzer being the polling gold standard at the next election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited November 6
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Harris is going to win Virginia, but it is significantly closer than 2020.

    Making a Trump narrow popular vote win, Harris EC narrow win increasingly possible
    Not according to NYT model.
    Trump currently leads the US popular vote by 4.5 million, in 2020 Biden led Trump by 5 million in California when he was doing better than Harris is now nationally. So it is certainly possible
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    edited November 6
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BREAKKKKKKKKKKKKKING NEWS....CNN Exit Poll for Nevada, Democracy / Economy most important issue, 48% financial situation worse...but illegal immigrants right to gain citizenship high.

    I’d like to unsubscribe from CNN Exit Poll Facts.

    :D
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Harris is going to win Virginia, but it is significantly closer than 2020.

    Making a Trump narrow popular vote win, Harris EC narrow win increasingly possible.

    I did place a small bet on that outcome.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    MikeL said:

    Why trust Decision Desk when they literally cannot input the Florida votes correctly?

    If you can find a better WIGGLY WORM then knock yourself out

    Ooof. NYT has ticked even more to Trump. Now with a 73% chance of victory

    Is this over?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    NYT needle keeps ticking percent by percent towards Trump.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    Sandpit said:

    Florida count complete in 150 minutes. They could all do this if they wanted to.

    Desanctamonious will be going for 2028.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    The_Woodpecker said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Georgia starting to look more interesting for Harris.

    200k behind. 400k to count. Unlikely.
    Must be more than a small chance, otherwise the networks would have called it.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Andy_JS said:

    The_Woodpecker said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Georgia starting to look more interesting for Harris.

    200k behind. 400k to count. Unlikely.
    Must be more than a small chance, otherwise the networks would have called it.
    They call when they are 99% certain of the outcome. Right now it's probably 90-95% certain
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Harris is going to win Virginia, but it is significantly closer than 2020.

    Making a Trump narrow popular vote win, Harris EC narrow win increasingly possible
    Not according to NYT model.
    Trump currently leads the US popular vote by 4.5 million, in 2020 Biden led Trump by 5 million in California when he was doing better than Harris is now nationally. So it is certainly possible
    Who wins the popular vote is now level with NYT.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Polls closed in Montana, Nevada and Utah
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    MikeL said:

    Why trust Decision Desk when they literally cannot input the Florida votes correctly?

    They’re replaying the Florida data now.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    The_Woodpecker said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Georgia starting to look more interesting for Harris.

    200k behind. 400k to count. Unlikely.
    Sorry that is completely wrong.

    2020 vote = 5m

    2024 counted so far = 4.3m
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    Nevada too close to call as expected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Montana projected for Trump
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    The_Woodpecker said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Georgia starting to look more interesting for Harris.

    200k behind. 400k to count. Unlikely.
    Biden won Georgia from a similar position, I see it as very close.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    If you believe the NYT needle then Trump is going to get a bigger win in both ECV and popular vote terms over Harris than he did over Clinton
This discussion has been closed.