politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do
Comments
-
On a betting website, people should really eschew their desired position from the reality.EPG said:Let's give credit to Tim Farron. Written off, lots of speculation about an English wipe out, even by me for about 90 minutes. Instead he's going to gain seats.
0 -
Good riddance Amber Augusta RuddTravelJunkie said:Amber Rudd byebye
0 -
Lots of studentsPeter_the_Punter said:
Seriously, can somebody explain to me what went wrong in Canterbury? Local issues? A scandal?williamglenn said:
The second sentence answers your first, perhaps.MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
What was it?
Lots of old people with expensive houses0 -
Salmond chatting sh*t on the BBC right now.0
-
May your children live in interesting times......Cyclefree said:
God knows what it means for Brexit. An even bigger FUBAR than before, I expect.0 -
Has Amber Rudd LOST Hastings??0
-
Confident my bet <28.5 seats is a winnerJosiasJessop said:
On a betting website, people should really eschew their desired position from the reality.EPG said:Let's give credit to Tim Farron. Written off, lots of speculation about an English wipe out, even by me for about 90 minutes. Instead he's going to gain seats.
0 -
Boris is definitely not the best option for the Tories. Everyone likes a jester, unless they're uncharge of their life.HYUFD said:
Boris leader at Westminster, Davidson staying as leader in Scotland is clearly the best electoral combination for Tories. GoodnightThe_Apocalypse said:We must find a way to get Ruth Davidson in parliament, and then as PM. The only sensible senior Tories these days.
0 -
Exeter classic university case. Never known anything like it, only posters I saw across the whole city were for Ben Bradshaw, including plenty in St Leonard's (where consultants & professors live). Not a single Tory poster, unlike 2015.0
-
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.0 -
Who is the Labour MP for Canterbury? A 20 year old student?!another_richard said:
Lots of studentsPeter_the_Punter said:
Seriously, can somebody explain to me what went wrong in Canterbury? Local issues? A scandal?williamglenn said:
The second sentence answers your first, perhaps.MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
What was it?
Lots of old people with expensive houses0 -
Well that's West Tyrone. Thank feck. Can get to the canteen counter now0
-
Who would have bet that Lamb and Brake would hold on, but that Mulholland and Clegg would go?0
-
I'm glad the LDs have done well (poor Clegg aside), but too many gains from COn, or Cons not gaining from them - majority dreams dead.
Plenty of us wanted the LDs to do well - it was the polls and the models!JosiasJessop said:
On a betting website, people should really eschew their desired position from the reality.EPG said:Let's give credit to Tim Farron. Written off, lots of speculation about an English wipe out, even by me for about 90 minutes. Instead he's going to gain seats.
0 -
Thanks Richard.another_richard said:
Lots of studentsPeter_the_Punter said:
Seriously, can somebody explain to me what went wrong in Canterbury? Local issues? A scandal?williamglenn said:
The second sentence answers your first, perhaps.MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
What was it?
Lots of old people with expensive houses0 -
Yes thank goodnessBobajob_PB said:Has Amber Rudd LOST Hastings??
0 -
Yays for @GeoffM too, in that case.Pong said:
With respect to TSE, I believe it was @GeoffM who first tipped that bet at 20/1Ishmael_Z said:
YAYScott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Conservatives now expecting to win more than 12 seats in Scotland. Absolutely incredible. #GE2017
And Yay yay and thrice yay for TSE >9.5 tip, which goes some way to balancing the books.0 -
Send them all for re-education.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
0 -
Con hold Redditch, and Dudley South.0
-
And so it is, the demise of the Toad King of Toadhall.Scott_P said:@akmaciver: Being told Alex Salmond has DEFINITELY lost. #GE2017
:-) :-) :-) :-D
0 -
Indeed. Rumours that they are going to lose Hastings (that's Amber Rudd's seat)bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
0 -
Where are we on Tory Scottish seats?0
-
Is there any time you're not bipolar?SeanT said:Dreadful night for Tories and Nats. I'm feeling bipolar.
I meant it btw: why not meet real people? Meet up with me, the missus and the little 'un.0 -
Yup. I have no future as a pundit. Wrote off Corbyn and Farron, and both have done well. BUT LDs so far seem to have become a completely tactical voting supported party, so not good long termEPG said:Let's give credit to Tim Farron. Written off, lots of speculation about an English wipe out, even by me for about 90 minutes. Instead he's going to gain seats.
0 -
Lab hold City of Chester.0
-
Can may hang on?0
-
You think Ruth would work with Boris? I don't.HYUFD said:
Boris leader at Westminster, Davidson staying as leader in Scotland is clearly the best electoral combination for Tories. GoodnightThe_Apocalypse said:We must find a way to get Ruth Davidson in parliament, and then as PM. The only sensible senior Tories these days.
0 -
Clegg was always in big trouble. He only survived in 2015 due to Tory tactical votes due to the Coalition.rcs1000 said:Who would have bet that Lamb and Brake would hold on, but that Mulholland and Clegg would go?
0 -
They've been offered a £30k bribe, can you blame them for voting for Labour?Casino_Royale said:
Send them all for re-education.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
0 -
-
No. She'll be knifed by the afternoon.TravelJunkie said:Can may hang on?
0 -
How the hell do we get a stable government out of this mess?0
-
@paulhutcheon: Senior SNP sources telling me second indyref is dead #2017Election0
-
No shit.Scott_P said:@paulhutcheon: Senior SNP sources telling me second indyref is dead #2017Election
0 -
Probably another electionDavidL said:How the hell do we get a stable government out of this mess?
0 -
Look, if you loaded the locals up on the trailer at the back of the tractor like Tom did to win the UUP leadership you'll hold..just.Lucian_Fletcher said:Well that's West Tyrone. Thank feck. Can get to the canteen counter now
0 -
No. The knives are out already.TravelJunkie said:Can may hang on?
0 -
May's kamikaze mission was a successScott_P said:@paulhutcheon: Senior SNP sources telling me second indyref is dead #2017Election
0 -
I think SF might have the edge in FST0
-
PC narrowly ahead in Ceredigion according to rumours.rcs1000 said:0 -
In which case I am pundit extraordinaireParistonda said:
Yup. I have no future as a pundit. Wrote off Corbyn and Farron, and both have done well. BUT LDs so far seem to have become a completely tactical voting supported party, so not good long termEPG said:Let's give credit to Tim Farron. Written off, lots of speculation about an English wipe out, even by me for about 90 minutes. Instead he's going to gain seats.
0 -
Tories to pass Labour0
-
I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU0
-
I would be fine with Davis.alex. said:
David Davis, surely? Wouldn't jeopardise the extra votes that the Tories have put on in this election either. Boris would be ridiculous.jonny83 said:People clamouring for Boris when we are about to go into some of the most important negotiations this country has had for years. I don't get it...
0 -
It won't be for long once the next recession comesScott_P said:@paulhutcheon: Senior SNP sources telling me second indyref is dead #2017Election
0 -
While that's true, they will likely have a better leader and more MPs.Paristonda said:
Yup. I have no future as a pundit. Wrote off Corbyn and Farron, and both have done well. BUT LDs so far seem to have become a completely tactical voting supported party, so not good long termEPG said:Let's give credit to Tim Farron. Written off, lots of speculation about an English wipe out, even by me for about 90 minutes. Instead he's going to gain seats.
If I were an LD, I would be very relieved this evening. (Compared to what I would have expected two days ago.)0 -
+1Chameleon said:
No. She'll be knifed by the afternoon.TravelJunkie said:Can may hang on?
0 -
LOL - you don't say....Scott_P said:@paulhutcheon: Senior SNP sources telling me second indyref is dead #2017Election
0 -
-
Yep, that sounds about right.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.0 -
Cable seems to be suggesting Richmond might stay with Olney...0
-
Vince back in Twickenham great news0
-
Vauxhall up now0
-
.0
-
Con hold Morley.
It seems to me that some of the first tier targets are being held because they had resources put in. I am guessing the 2nd and 3rd tier defence targets didn't have the same resources put in as 2015.0 -
no. Especially with their job propects, no freedom of movement, no prospect of owning their own homes ever....bleak.tlg86 said:
They've been offered a £30k bribe, can you blame them for voting for Labour?Casino_Royale said:
Send them all for re-education.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
0 -
It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.DavidL said:Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.
Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.0 -
The election would never have been called if Labour had a 'decent' leader.SeanT said:
"Invincibility"??Jonathan said:Next election not going to be pretty for the Tories. Myth of invincibility gone.
Even as a decent Labour leader would have won this, let's remember a decent Tory leader would have crushed Corbyn.0 -
This is correct, Tory leaders are mean't to win..not come 2nd and claim victory, but win. She didn't.Chameleon said:
No. She'll be knifed by the afternoon.TravelJunkie said:Can may hang on?
0 -
A Pber is on Sky News right now0
-
How many pundits do you know who get things right most of the time? They key is not to lose confidence just because you are wrong a lot.Paristonda said:
Yup. I have no future as a pundit. Wrote off Corbyn and Farron, and both have done well. BUT LDs so far seem to have become a completely tactical voting supported party, so not good long termEPG said:Let's give credit to Tim Farron. Written off, lots of speculation about an English wipe out, even by me for about 90 minutes. Instead he's going to gain seats.
Well May did say the Union was her priority.Scott_P said:@paulhutcheon: Senior SNP sources telling me second indyref is dead #2017Election
0 -
We don't.DavidL said:How the hell do we get a stable government out of this mess?
We're going to get an arms race of spending promises and then another election.0 -
She also had something to say.HYUFD said:
May, Hillary, Gillard, Royal, sad to say voters do not like earnest, hardbitten women leaders it seems, Merkel the exception but she can be fat and jovial. Thatcher was in the right place at the right timenumbertwelve said:
I do feel sorry for her. You don't want to get to the highest office in the land only to relinquish it a mere year later... Sadly, she didn't have a leadership campaign proper, and she wasn't shown up as being, well, utterly useless at actually campaigning.Oliver said:Come on Theresa, say strong and stable just for old time's sake.
May didn't.
She - and the Tories - believed her own propaganda. Hubris.0 -
Then you relied too much on the polls and models.kle4 said:I'm glad the LDs have done well (poor Clegg aside), but too many gains from COn, or Cons not gaining from them - majority dreams dead.
Plenty of us wanted the LDs to do well - it was the polls and the models!JosiasJessop said:
On a betting website, people should really eschew their desired position from the reality.EPG said:Let's give credit to Tim Farron. Written off, lots of speculation about an English wipe out, even by me for about 90 minutes. Instead he's going to gain seats.
GIGO.0 -
Tories would have still got a majority if they had simply put out a blank piece of paper as their manifesto. The no triple lock, dementia tax etc etc etc has cost them, and it seems like there has been quite a few very close ones they lost / failed to take.0
-
NOTheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
0 -
A £30K bribe which they pay for. Smart.tlg86 said:
They've been offered a £30k bribe, can you blame them for voting for Labour?Casino_Royale said:
Send them all for re-education.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
0 -
Hoey wins0
-
@Pong My grateful thanks to you remembering that small thing on a night of such high drama.Pong said:
With respect to TSE, I believe it was @GeoffM who first tipped that bet at 20/1Ishmael_Z said:
YAYScott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Conservatives now expecting to win more than 12 seats in Scotland. Absolutely incredible. #GE2017
And Yay yay and thrice yay for TSE >9.5 tip, which goes some way to balancing the books.0 -
Jeffrey Donaldson may be Foreign Secretary in a few days' time.0
-
Hoey holds on, to the relief of Smithson Jnr!0
-
£30k? I work it out at about £50k for me, more for those from poorer backgrounds.tlg86 said:
They've been offered a £30k bribe, can you blame them for voting for Labour?Casino_Royale said:
Send them all for re-education.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
0 -
Has that Corbyn video hit 5m views yet ?CarlottaVance said:
May your children live in interesting times......Cyclefree said:
God knows what it means for Brexit. An even bigger FUBAR than before, I expect.0 -
Kate holds onto Vauxhall0
-
Good news for animal welfare people - Chris Williamson is exceptionally committed on that.Chameleon said:Derby north gone Lab.
0 -
I seriously doubt it, I think we'll get a referendum on what comes next. Hard Brexit vs EEA/EFTA is my bet.TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
0 -
Yes, but the area was traditionally LD vs Con - it was thought it might go back more that sort of way, plus some said the Lab candidate wasn't as good.not_on_fire said:
Clegg was always in big trouble. He only survived in 2015 due to Tory tactical votes due to the Coalition.rcs1000 said:Who would have bet that Lamb and Brake would hold on, but that Mulholland and Clegg would go?
0 -
Pure poison as Sturgeon is now discovering.TheScreamingEagles said:I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU
0 -
Who?TheScreamingEagles said:A Pber is on Sky News right now
0 -
Well, even more reason to vote Labour.Chameleon said:
£30k? I work it out at about £50k for me, more for those from poorer backgrounds.tlg86 said:
They've been offered a £30k bribe, can you blame them for voting for Labour?Casino_Royale said:
Send them all for re-education.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
0 -
Cons hold Waveney. Just Ipswich in East Anglia.0
-
He'll hold back till the next election in the autumn, then he'll try for Holyrood, again to take over from Sturgeon.Scott_P said:@akmaciver: Being told Alex Salmond has DEFINITELY lost. #GE2017
0 -
no, she wouldn't she said if he ver becomes leader she will break away the scottish party.jonny83 said:
You think Ruth would work with Boris? I don't.HYUFD said:
Boris leader at Westminster, Davidson staying as leader in Scotland is clearly the best electoral combination for Tories. GoodnightThe_Apocalypse said:We must find a way to get Ruth Davidson in parliament, and then as PM. The only sensible senior Tories these days.
0 -
What was all that Hoey in danger nonsense all about?0
-
Fife NE apparently LDs ahead by single figures...0
-
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.0 -
ITV saying 16 which is fine by me. Big churn in MPs indicates the LD party has a new makeup though. Seems like they have gained largely through Scottish tactical voting, not good for the long term.rcs1000 said:0 -
Here hereThe_Apocalypse said:We must find a way to get Ruth Davidson in parliament, and then as PM. The only sensible senior Tories these days.
0 -
Huge win for Hoey.0
-
Don’t need a senior SNP source to tell us that. Nicola has blown that for a generation.Scott_P said:@paulhutcheon: Senior SNP sources telling me second indyref is dead #2017Election
0 -
*Some* of them pay for. The clever will avoid it, to the cost of the others.Richard_Nabavi said:
A £30K bribe which they pay for. Smart.tlg86 said:
They've been offered a £30k bribe, can you blame them for voting for Labour?Casino_Royale said:
Send them all for re-education.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...MaxPB said:Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
As ever.0
