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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Many models has Lamb down as a 95+% probable loss.

    He may be the ultimate survivor of the LDs - Clegg and Mulholland did not survive, Williams might not, Pugh didn't stand again to see, Farron isn't safe, has Brake lost yet?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    Kudos YouGov. Canterbury Lab
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    Canterbury confirmed. Wowzers. I apologise to YouGov.

    Conservatives lose Canterbury and Battersea but gain Dagenham and Middlesborough, astonishing!
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Despite feeling hollowed out as my party gets a stuffing everywhere, I'm heartened that this is looking like a good election for Unionism in Scotland and NI

    What about Farmer Tom?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    Not resigning then
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Feel sorry for Theresa May here. Found wanting. Overpromoted and exposed. It happens. We all reach our limit and she did it very publicly and humiliatingly.

    Sad, but she must now go.

    when she got the job I remember recalling what Churchill said about Eden, that 'the greatest of his office would find him out'.

    I gave her benefit of the doubt over Brexit and thought she was getting it together, but this election campaign has been atrocious.

    She has to go I think.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    Sorry Mrs May, not your decision
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    How have we lost Canterbury?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Canterbury I think at least in part is due to Brazier reneging on his 2015 promise that it would be his last election.

    Should we be worried about Clarke then?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Canterbury LAB GAIN
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,124

    She going to resign in her speech?

    Nope. Hoping to cling on. She does know her MPs will brutally murder her tomorrow doesn't she?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con hold Bolton West
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Feel sorry for May, but seriously - try writing a manifesto that enthuses and rewards your voters instead of taxing and repelling them.

    It's not hard - even Labour under Corbyn managed to do it. Start telling the electorate the bad news AFTER you've won your landslide, not before!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Feel sorry for Theresa May here. Found wanting. Overpromoted and exposed. It happens. We all reach our limit and she did it very publicly and humiliatingly.

    Sad, but she must now go.

    She got greedy.
    So did I. Now sitting on a nasty spreadbet loss.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    May looks broken.

    I could never be a politician. Imagine the biggest self-inflicted f*ck-up of your entire life being witnessed by the whole country and then being written about and analysed for years or even decades to come.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Con hold Bolton West, good result for them.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    Just had a hilarious realisation. If the Tories only have a majority due to Scottish MPs, won't EVFEL prevent them from passing a lot of legislation?

    They'll have a majority of English MPs.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Conservatives GAIN Middlesbrough South despite their concerns. A surprise given other results here. #GE2017

    This election is really rather odd. I wonder if there will be enough to make up for the loses?
    I can but hope....

  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    alex. said:

    Tories have lost. Clinging on with a minority government would be a mistake. Accept defeat after 7 years in power.

    Er, a minority Govt is the only viable govt.
    Yes but going from a majority to a minority like the tories is a recipe for a landslide 2022 defeat.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    May sounds like she's about to cry.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Voice cracking,,,,,shame but not up to it...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    Canterbury confirmed. Wowzers. I apologise to YouGov.

    Conservatives lose Canterbury and Battersea but gain Dagenham and Middlesborough, astonishing!
    They didn't gain Dagenham.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Not resigning then

    Was never going to now.

    Later today, in front of No.10.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    So, LDs on 5.

    Plus...

    Edinburgh West
    Orkney & Shetland
    for sure

    Seven is the minimum the LDs.

    Plus some of...

    Kingston & Surbiton
    Carshalton
    Ceridgion
    CS&ER
    RC&S
    A&B
    Fife NE

    11?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MattChorley: May: "It will be incumbent on us to have that period of stability"
    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972
    Got to get up for work at 7, so signing off.
    Listening to Mrs May, losing the will to stay awake anyway.

    With many thanks to Mr Herdson, for prompting me to multiply my minority govt bets last night.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    alex. said:

    Tories have lost. Clinging on with a minority government would be a mistake. Accept defeat after 7 years in power.

    Er, a minority Govt is the only viable govt.
    No. They have lost. They went to the country and asked Who Governs?

    The country said: "Not you."
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,124
    She seems to be wishing for a result she didn't get
  • DevonblueDevonblue Posts: 6
    Interesting she's saying "we" ran this campaign now rather than "I"
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    She's so uninspiring the result can hardly be surprising.
  • Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    IanB2 said:

    Kudos YouGov. Canterbury Lab

    I was completely wrong on this but have to say Brazier going is a plus.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Chameleon said:

    May sounds like she's about to cry.

    Probably shellshocked. Wasn't there a tweet earlier saying the exit poll floored them?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    What a wild election.

    Winners: YouGov, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    Maybe not.
  • DevonChapDevonChap Posts: 3
    Theresa May. The Peter Principle made flesh
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,672
    Warrington North is held by Labour.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    SeanT said:

    May looks like she's aged 10-years in a night.

    My god. Her face. That's a woman who is resigning tomorrow. Wow.
    Yep.
    Tears in her voice .... she is clearly shaken
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    kle4 said:

    Many models has Lamb down as a 95+% probable loss.

    He may be the ultimate survivor of the LDs - Clegg and Mulholland did not survive, Williams might not, Pugh didn't stand again to see, Farron isn't safe, has Brake lost yet?

    Has to be a big personal vote and quite right too. One of the good guys.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    What an idiot, pointless election and flung everything away
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,933
    atia2 said:

    Who sounds more Prime Ministerial? Theresa May or "Jezbollah"?

    May. Always.

    Although it's a bit like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhoea.

    She sounds broken.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    May speaking of 'we' the Conservatives, not 'I' Theresa May with regard to stability
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    alex. said:

    Tories have lost. Clinging on with a minority government would be a mistake. Accept defeat after 7 years in power.

    Er, a minority Govt is the only viable govt.
    Yes but going from a majority to a minority like the tories is a recipe for a landslide 2022 defeat.
    Yep - if Labour keep the discipline they've shown in this campaign, unless there's a great Brexit (which was always impossible - there would have been some level of pain no matter what), the Tories are out by a lot in 5 years.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Just had a hilarious realisation. If the Tories only have a majority due to Scottish MPs, won't EVFEL prevent them from passing a lot of legislation?

    No because it would be a much clearer majority in EVFEL.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    rcs1000 said:

    So, LDs on 5.

    Plus...

    Edinburgh West
    Orkney & Shetland
    for sure

    Seven is the minimum the LDs.

    Plus some of...

    Kingston & Surbiton
    Carshalton
    Ceridgion
    CS&ER
    RC&S
    A&B
    Fife NE

    11?

    And is Witney genuine?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Farron survives
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Penistone very close but Labour survives 45 to 43%
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,933

    What an idiot, pointless election and flung everything away

    Just like the europhobes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    AndyJS said:

    Con hold Bolton West, good result for them.

    10th Lab target I see. Some joy.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Chameleon said:

    May sounds like she's about to cry.

    Yep - she made a catastrophic campaign - but seriously who predicted this 4 weeks ago?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lab gain Portsmouth South from third place.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Farron survives

    More good news for the LDs
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, LDs on 5.

    Plus...

    Edinburgh West
    Orkney & Shetland
    for sure

    Seven is the minimum the LDs.

    Plus some of...

    Kingston & Surbiton
    Carshalton
    Ceridgion
    CS&ER
    RC&S
    A&B
    Fife NE

    11?

    And is Witney genuine?
    Six declared already
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    The most enjoyable election night I can remember.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    Good to see Labour win Portsmouth South.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    Not Boris.

    If Boris become PM, I'm going to join the Labour party, and vote Labour in the next local election, and GE. I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than HIM.

    Yes, well Boris is the populist we need I am afraid. Labour have gone populist under Corbyn and gained a swing to them, we need to get an even better populist and that is Boris. So it will be Brexit but perhaps slightly fudged, austerity ended and taxes slashed, gateaux for all to trump Corbyn's icecreams for all!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rcs1000 said:

    So, LDs on 5.

    Plus...

    Edinburgh West
    Orkney & Shetland
    for sure

    Seven is the minimum the LDs.

    Plus some of...

    Kingston & Surbiton
    Carshalton
    Ceridgion
    CS&ER
    RC&S
    A&B
    Fife NE

    11?

    Not sure about Edinburgh West any more.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    What an idiot, pointless election and flung everything away

    Yep.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Norfolk North
    LD hold
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    AndyJS said:

    Lab gain Portsmouth South from third place.

    Bloody hell.

    Anyone betting on yougov model made a fortune....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    Good to see LD win Eastbourne!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scotland is saving the Tories!!!!!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    This is not the victory speech of a strong and stable leader. It's the speech of someone who tried to destroy the labour movement AND FAILED
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    SeanT said:

    Devonblue said:

    Interesting she's saying "we" ran this campaign now rather than "I"

    Yep. Resignation inevitable.
    There's never been a dull moment since the referendum, has there?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, LDs on 5.

    Plus...

    Edinburgh West
    Orkney & Shetland
    for sure

    Seven is the minimum the LDs.

    Plus some of...

    Kingston & Surbiton
    Carshalton
    Ceridgion
    CS&ER
    RC&S
    A&B
    Fife NE

    11?

    And is Witney genuine?
    Yup. Apparently the Lib Dems built up a lot of intelligence from the by election.

    Plus it was the way of Witney Tories flicking the finger to Mrs May and wanting Dave back
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCPhilipSim: Labour GAIN Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill from the SNP.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Not resigning then

    She'll be rightly pushed out. Losing to Corbyn is unforgivable.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,748
    rcs1000 said:

    So, LDs lose 2, gain 3.

    Lots of turnover there.

    Eastbourne went LD
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894

    rcs1000 said:

    So, LDs on 5.

    Plus...

    Edinburgh West
    Orkney & Shetland
    for sure

    Seven is the minimum the LDs.

    Plus some of...

    Kingston & Surbiton
    Carshalton
    Ceridgion
    CS&ER
    RC&S
    A&B
    Fife NE

    11?

    Not sure about Edinburgh West any more.
    Your second most likely LD seat :smile: ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited June 2017
    new BBC forecast
    Cons 318, still just about enough with DUP

    Lab 276
    SNP 32
    LD 11
    PC 3
    Grn 1
    Others 18
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    Con hold Witney.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,124
    atia2 said:

    Who sounds more Prime Ministerial? Theresa May or "Jezbollah"?

    You have to pay me a royalty fee to use "Jezbollah".....
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    Can we just step back a moment and admire the Ruth surge in Scotland?

    Wow.

    I think a few more years in Scotland to refine her policy stances and then look to get a seat in Westminster. That's assuming she has real political ambition, I don't know if she wants it.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Scotland is saving the Tories!!!!!

    It is quite extraordinary.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Better coverage on BBC this GE, fewer wanky graphics
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,672
    Pulpstar said:

    EPG said:

    SDLP wiped out by 2 SF and 1 DUP. The great balancing act ends. Not easy to see a way back.
    18 NI is 10 DUP 6/7 SF 1 Independent 1/0 UUP

    Who won Belfast South >?
    Emma LITTLE PENGELLY (Democratic Unionist).
    It's probably #1 target for tactical voting next time as at least 3 of parties 2-5 will want to get rid of her.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Nigelb said:

    Got to get up for work at 7, so signing off.
    Listening to Mrs May, losing the will to stay awake anyway.

    With many thanks to Mr Herdson, for prompting me to multiply my minority govt bets last night.

    Yep. @david_herdson proved right.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Harrow West

    Lab 60.8
    Con 34.4

    Ouch
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    LucyJones said:

    May looks broken.

    I could never be a politician. Imagine the biggest self-inflicted f*ck-up of your entire life being witnessed by the whole country and then being written about and analysed for years or even decades to come.
    At least she isn't likely to be kicked out of her house in the morning like Brown, kids in tow! (I guess he had a few days to pack)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,933

    kle4 said:

    Many models has Lamb down as a 95+% probable loss.

    He may be the ultimate survivor of the LDs - Clegg and Mulholland did not survive, Williams might not, Pugh didn't stand again to see, Farron isn't safe, has Brake lost yet?

    Has to be a big personal vote and quite right too. One of the good guys.
    So was Clegg. As I've said for ages, the history books will see the coalition very differently from how we saw it in 2015.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Tories 318 now

    Ouch!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,381
    I would rather have a slim majority including quite a few Scottish Tories, than the 2015 situation.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Confirmed DUP gain in South Belfast and just over 1200 in the bank.

    I'm not going to lie, as a Conservative I'd have liked a good Conservative majority but I will have great joy watching Snowflakes over there as they consider the possibility that the DUP could be the kingmakers and they fall back on lazy outdated talk..
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Absolutely utterly completely every single one of them. Now on to Boris.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    LDs now confirmed on 6 on BBC
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Tim carton holds :)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,933

    I would rather have a slim majority including quite a few Scottish Tories, than the 2015 situation.

    why?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Farron was only safe by 900 votes, wow.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Tim Farron backs dictatorships.
  • Y0kel said:

    Despite feeling hollowed out as my party gets a stuffing everywhere, I'm heartened that this is looking like a good election for Unionism in Scotland and NI

    What about Farmer Tom?
    I'm hopeful but we haven't even had West Tyrone declared yet and I could have told you who won that the day the election was called
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    What was the YouGov model position on LD?

    Tories 318 now

    Ouch!

    Hey, it's more than at the start!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @andrewlearmonth: Tories says 700 ahead of Salmond in Gordon
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    HYUFD said:

    Not Boris.

    If Boris become PM, I'm going to join the Labour party, and vote Labour in the next local election, and GE. I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than HIM.

    Yes, well Boris is the populist we need I am afraid. Labour have gone populist under Corbyn and gained a swing to them, we need to get an even better populist and that is Boris. So it will be Brexit but perhaps slightly fudged, austerity ended and taxes slashed, gateaux for all to trump Corbyn's icecreams for all!
    Boris isn't a populist he's a f*cking idiot. This fool doesn't know what the hell he believes. He'd be a disaster for this country.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Better coverage on BBC this GE, fewer wanky graphics

    And no pointless map outside Broadcasting House with lots of hexagons...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    ITV call Witney Tory hold
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,045
    Next Tory leader needs to be able to debate effectively (now part of elections and expected by the public), offer a positive vision and answer questions straight.

    May found out too easily.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @andyinverness: Liberal democrat Jamie stone says it is "looking good" for him in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854

    Better coverage on BBC this GE, fewer wanky graphics

    I just turned over in response to your comment and see Jeremy Vine walking around a virtual reality wanky graphic.
This discussion has been closed.