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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Berwickshire :D
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    It looks as though you have lost seats.

    Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.

    It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
    You've still lost that one.

    Suck it up.
    LOL. Care to explain that?
    Still Brexiting.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Labour gain Lincoln
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @carrie_symonds1: Zac Goldsmith about 80 votes ahead of Sarah Olney in Richmond Park & North Kingston. Full recount happening now #GE2017
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Devon east NOT an Indy gain
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    IanB2 said:

    TMay could get 44%!!

    Bang in line with the polls.
    Lol @ the polls! One poll?
    Nope. For the last couple of weeks all the polls were consistent with a Tory share of 44%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    surbiton said:

    If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

    I wrote about this a month ago particularly regarding the East of England. Yet, PB Tories were talking about the exact opposite.
    Ah, another one for the busted PB myths list

    - Tory vote is hyper-efficient
    Plenty suggested that while that was the case last time, itmight not be again.

    Will Con + DUP >=323?

    Probably, but the SUP cannot be taken for granted. And I'm not from NI, but I doubt they'd agree to a formal deal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Ruth Davidson is amazing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,527
    edited June 2017

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    Wow, that's going to a very late night.

    One Tory seat I don't care too much about.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Croydon Central gone.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    Con did very well in Rother Valley. Majority cut to 8%

    A good swing to the Cons also in Bassetlaw.

    Must have a chance then in adjacent Derbyshire NE.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Con gain Stirling.
    Lab gain Croydon Central.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,216
    And another one. Stirling.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,949
    David Davis re-elected.

    Shame.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Croydon central falls to jezza
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited June 2017
    alex. said:

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    Are you supposed to reveal things like that?
    Why not? ITV have tweeted it too.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 2017
    4 losses for the SNP in 2 mins there.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Pong said:

    Fantastic exit poll in hard circumstances.

    Congratulations Curtice et al.

    Yeah, the thread between 2230-2300 is going to be entertaining reading. Hardly anyone believed it despite it being almost spot on in 2015
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Scott_P said:

    @carrie_symonds1: Zac Goldsmith about 80 votes ahead of Sarah Olney in Richmond Park & North Kingston. Full recount happening now #GE2017

    Oh, I thought that had already been declared. I'm torn. I'd still like to see the tiniest of Tory majorities, but I'd like him to lose.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Cath Smith re-elected in Lancaster
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,234
    Y0kel said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Foster ruling out propping up Corbyn.

    Foster would be lynched if she did. Whilst much of her hinterland is slightly left of centre there are certain principles at work that you just won;t break.
    Funnily enough 'IRA' figured in her response to the question.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318
    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    Quite. Fuck Opposition. Tories have more seats and an almost record percentage vote, and nearly a majority. Fuck handing the UK over to the Trots and terrorists of Labour.

    Form a minority government, find a better leader, a more popular manifesto, and a softer Brexit arrangement, and then return to the people.
    No. No more elections. We see Brexit through to whatever end, maybe even make Theresa own it and dump her afterwards. Once we have completed Brexit we can go to the people.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Pong said:

    Fantastic exit poll in hard circumstances.

    Congratulations Curtice et al.

    I second that! Absolutely amazing job!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Pulpstar said:

    Ruth Davidson is amazing.

    Possibly the second biggest story of the night and not a word on the BBC coverage.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,107
    Conservative 318 + 10 DUP = 328
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    So with scon taking Stirling, we're looking at 10 seats and a winning bet aren't we???
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    LD gain Edinburgh SW

    Really? Now that's out of left field, I think.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Con gain Stirling
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    There seem to be a lot more incredibly close seats than usually, or is it only me?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Lincoln!!!

    I mean, I know Lincoln town is a bit of a different beast to rural Lincolnshire (which really was the Brexit Heartland), but still.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    A 15k Lab maj in Nottingham South where the Conservatives poured in the resources.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    LD gain Edinburgh SW

    Con gain Berwick

    Lab gain Lincoln !!

    You mean Ed West? Or a truly ludicrous result in SW?
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Tory vote very efficient​. They really do fight for the few not the many
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I thought the Tories will win in Wales.

    Labour = 50% of the votes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    Scott_P said:

    @carrie_symonds1: Zac Goldsmith about 80 votes ahead of Sarah Olney in Richmond Park & North Kingston. Full recount happening now #GE2017

    Very close recounts:

    Cons likely to hold RP, PC likely to take Ceridgion, LDs likely to take Fife NE.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Corbyn says lost votes, but I think the Tories will have more than last time.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    hunchman said:

    Pong said:

    Fantastic exit poll in hard circumstances.

    Congratulations Curtice et al.

    I second that! Absolutely amazing job!
    Yup. Didn't believe it; but it proved pretty much correct...
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

    I wrote about this a month ago particularly regarding the East of England. Yet, PB Tories were talking about the exact opposite.
    Ah, another one for the busted PB myths list

    - Tory vote is hyper-efficient
    Plenty suggested that while that was the case last time, itmight not be again.

    Will Con + DUP >=323?

    Probably, but the SUP cannot be taken for granted. And I'm not from NI, but I doubt they'd agree to a formal deal.
    They will not. Arms length every time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Although he's done better than expected after the campaign (it's easy to forget many people started off saying LDs 15+), Farron will be replaced as Leader right? Swinson?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Stirling Con GAIN!
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Exit poll underestimated SNP losses?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,283

    So with scon taking Stirling, we're looking at 10 seats and a winning bet aren't we???

    One to go I think.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    Any word on Argyll and Bute?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn says lost votes, but I think the Tories will have more than last time.

    undoubtedly so. turnout up and share up
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,949
    Cameron was forced to gamble by the Europhobes and lost.
    May chose to gamble and lost.

    In the eyes of the Europhobes, it will be Cameron's fault, ffs.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @carrie_symonds1: Zac Goldsmith about 80 votes ahead of Sarah Olney in Richmond Park & North Kingston. Full recount happening now #GE2017

    Very close recounts:

    Cons likely to hold RP, PC likely to take Ceridgion, LDs likely to take Fife NE.
    Gah.

    I lost Stoke bets by 80 votes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @STVColin: Edin south west looking like a recount
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,283
    Labour hold Bolsover...
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    David Davis re-elected.

    Shame.

    Why?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Y0kel said:

    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

    I wrote about this a month ago particularly regarding the East of England. Yet, PB Tories were talking about the exact opposite.
    Ah, another one for the busted PB myths list

    - Tory vote is hyper-efficient
    Plenty suggested that while that was the case last time, itmight not be again.

    Will Con + DUP >=323?

    Probably, but the SUP cannot be taken for granted. And I'm not from NI, but I doubt they'd agree to a formal deal.
    They will not. Arms length every time.
    Well, we saw what happened when the UUP got to close (though they've ended back in the same place now anyway)
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    SCON up to 9 (+9)... so with 1 hold, the WillHill 20/1 >9.5 seats bet comes off?
  • You have to feel sorry for her. She's going to be remembered as one of the most inept leaders in British history
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Con did very well in Rother Valley. Majority cut to 8%

    A good swing to the Cons also in Bassetlaw.

    Must have a chance then in adjacent Derbyshire NE.
    The beast is back. Labour hold Bolsover
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    tlg86 said:

    Labour hold Bolsover...

    Very old news!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    Quite. Fuck Opposition. Tories have more seats and an almost record percentage vote, and nearly a majority. Fuck handing the UK over to the Trots and terrorists of Labour.

    Form a minority government, find a better leader, a more popular manifesto, and a softer Brexit arrangement, and then return to the people.
    No. No more elections. We see Brexit through to whatever end, maybe even make Theresa own it and dump her afterwards. Once we have completed Brexit we can go to the people.
    A National Government of some sort probably should be in the offing. An open offer to work with anyone who wants to deliver the best possible outcome from the Brexit Negotiations.

    It won't happen - but it probably should.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lab gain Leeds NW.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Tories will find a way to govern.

    Just to many close to call seats going Tory.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Edin North & Leith

    SNP hold. Split unionist vote
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Amber Rudd might survive in Hastings?

    IF she does, the Tory leader candidates are:

    Boris
    Rudd
    Hammond
    Davis
    uhm...
    Fallon?

    anyone else?

    I think Boris wins this.

    Hunt.
    Corbyn could beat Hunt, he is Cabinet Minister material but too slimy to win, it has to be Boris now
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @carrie_symonds1: Zac Goldsmith about 80 votes ahead of Sarah Olney in Richmond Park & North Kingston. Full recount happening now #GE2017

    Very close recounts:

    Cons likely to hold RP, PC likely to take Ceridgion, LDs likely to take Fife NE.
    Gah.

    I lost Stoke bets by 80 votes.
    All less than 250 odd votes.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    SNP hold in charles kennedy's old seat
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    A bit baffled by the Tories not gaining Perth now.

    Wales being very nice to Labour still, only Scotland playing to the script.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour gained Leeds NW
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited June 2017
    kle4 said:

    Although he's done better than expected after the campaign (it's easy to forget many people started off saying LDs 15+), Farron will be replaced as Leader right? Swinson?

    Vince. Avuncular and massively well known compared to all other Lib Dems.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Leeds NW gone to Lab from LD.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    being selfish - god knows what my tax bill will be in 6 months - time to go self employed?
  • Karl McCartney goes down in brexit flames in Lincoln. Revenge of the remainers?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    You mean Ed West? Or a truly ludicrous result in SW?

    Must be West. Libs in SW would be like UKIP winning Islington North.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    I think the BBC LD forecast of 11 is one or two short.

    Fife NE and O&S should both be LD.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Shipley still not confirmed labour gain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    kle4 said:

    Although he's done better than expected after the campaign (it's easy to forget many people started off saying LDs 15+), Farron will be replaced as Leader right? Swinson?

    Vince. Avuncular and massively well known compared to all other Lib Dems.
    Too old
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    kle4 said:

    Although he's done better than expected after the campaign (it's easy to forget many people started off saying LDs 15+), Farron will be replaced as Leader right? Swinson?

    Vince. Avuncular and massively well known compared to all other Lib Dems.
    And a massive ego.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    ITV projecting 16 LD seats?!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.

    What's in it for the rest of the EU? Spain only has so much pull.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,949
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    It looks as though you have lost seats.

    Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.

    It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
    You've still lost that one.

    Suck it up.
    LOL. Care to explain that?
    Still Brexiting.
    What matters most to you? Being out of the EU at the moment, or the good of the country?

    To use one of your fellow traveller's words: traitor.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    rcs1000 said:

    I think the BBC LD forecast of 11 is one or two short.

    Fife NE and O&S should both be LD.

    Latest forecast is 16. One or two optimistic I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.

    Also, I thought the idea the majority, or even the composition of the parliament, had any influence on the deal was supposed to be silly?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    It looks as though you have lost seats.

    Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.

    It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
    You've still lost that one.

    Suck it up.
    LOL. Care to explain that?
    Still Brexiting.
    What matters most to you? Being out of the EU at the moment, or the good of the country?

    To use one of your fellow traveller's words: traitor.
    *claps*
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    SeanT said:

    SNP down to 32, projected


    Heheheheheheh


    Fuck off indyref2

    one of the hidden surprises of this election. People tought Sturgeon would falter but this is a horrendous result.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894

    ITV projecting 16 LD seats?!

    Too high, likely to be 13.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    kle4 said:

    Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.

    What's in it for the rest of the EU? Spain only has so much pull.

    We need to satisfy 27 nations. It only takes one to bugger up the entire deal
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    On future leaders, I wonder if it has to be Davis? Given is work as Brexit secretary, wouldn't he be ideal to take over immediately?
  • dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    CON Gain Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318
    Whatever happens, the Cameroons have to be brought back in from the cold. Gove needs a big role and we need Osborne back, maybe he can stand in Maidenhead when Theresa stands down.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    rcs1000 said:

    ITV projecting 16 LD seats?!

    Too high, likely to be 13.
    Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinction
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    LOL SNP Hold N&L against the tide.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894

    SNP hold in charles kennedy's old seat

    Not surprising given Holyrood results last year.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Labour hold Halifax.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    Although he's done better than expected after the campaign (it's easy to forget many people started off saying LDs 15+), Farron will be replaced as Leader right? Swinson?

    Vince. Avuncular and massively well known compared to all other Lib Dems.
    Too old
    Can't be much older than Corbyn?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    MaxPB said:

    Whatever happens, the Cameroons have to be brought back in from the cold. Gove needs a big role and we need Osborne back, maybe he can stand in Maidenhead when Theresa stands down.

    Yeah, I suspect there will be a by election there soon. I doubt she would want to stick around.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,949

    rcs1000 said:

    ITV projecting 16 LD seats?!

    Too high, likely to be 13.
    Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinction
    Or Farron.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @FraserWhyte81: Salmond currently scribbling on some scraps of paper... Rewriting his planned speech perhaps?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Theresa out by tomorrow night!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Tories are now in the lead with the popular vote.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

    Not saying you're wrong, but by what process?
    The one major problem, self inflicted by the Tory austerity cuts of the Civil Service, is that there are not enough qualified civil servants to do the work required. And it is virtually impossible to hire qualified and security checked staff at the wages and conditions on offer.

    They can't be taken from other departments, no volunteers as it may damage future prospects, and nearly all the departments are short staffed for the work required.

    Nearly every one in Parliament now realises that the reality of Brexit is actually Brexsh*t, and any excuse to ditch it will do fine.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    It looks as though you have lost seats.

    Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.

    It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
    You've still lost that one.

    Suck it up.
    LOL. Care to explain that?
    Still Brexiting.
    What matters most to you? Being out of the EU at the moment, or the good of the country?

    To use one of your fellow traveller's words: traitor.
    Why you you have that as an OR?

    I think being out of the EU *is* good for the country.
This discussion has been closed.