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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do

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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    Still a massive bonus at the next election that the Tories will actually be able to realistically scare their voters with the prospect of a Corbyn government. Hardly sensible to put him in before playing that card!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,442
    The live footage of May heading down the M4 looks like the coverage of the evacuation of the nurse who was diagnosed with ebola.
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Labour beating Tories by 75,000 votes
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    Amazing to think Andy Street won the West Midlands barely a month ago.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,434
    SeanT said:

    Amber Rudd might survive in Hastings?

    IF she does, the Tory leader candidates are:

    Boris
    Rudd
    Hammond
    Davis
    uhm...
    Fallon?

    anyone else?

    I think Boris wins this.

    I don't want it, but I think you'd be right - charisma will be the order of the day, not the appearance of dull competence.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,919
    alex. said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    Still a massive bonus at the next election that the Tories will actually be able to realistically scare their voters with the prospect of a Corbyn government. Hardly sensible to put him in before playing that card!
    Playing the long con perfectly. (geddit?)
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

    Yes. The "feckless and lazy" millennials have gamed FPP ruthlessly.

    The last laugh for the jilted generation.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Pulpstar said:

    I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.

    Did the DUP win because it offered a positive vision >?
    Yes it did, it said, if the Union matters vote for us.

    It does matter. Don't let all that talk of Unionists (of whatever shade) going all soft on unification because of Brexit fool you.

    Blood is thicker than water
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    IanB2 said:

    Ilford N Lab

    I had a feeling it would be, even as I voted
    Does "Sunil" now mean "blue" in a slightly more literal way, Dr P?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @davidtorrance: .@PoliticalYeti "But somehow the commentators will find a way to say that peak Nat has passed..." Silly commentators.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,623
    SeanT said:

    Amber Rudd might survive in Hastings?

    IF she does, the Tory leader candidates are:

    Boris
    Rudd
    Hammond
    Davis
    uhm...
    Fallon?

    anyone else?

    I think Boris wins this.

    Priti!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    SeanT said:

    Amber Rudd might survive in Hastings?

    IF she does, the Tory leader candidates are:

    Boris
    Rudd
    Hammond
    Davis
    uhm...
    Fallon?

    anyone else?

    I think Boris wins this.

    Hunt.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,053
    kle4 said:

    Do the Tories currently have a Deputy PM or First Secretary of State who could credibly be asked to be caretaker PM?

    No
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    edited June 2017
    AR404 said:

    Recount in Hastings but Rudd ahead 'in the hundreds' according to BBC

    I hope she wins, lot of time for her.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Haven't Sky shown us enough of Theresa's sorry motorcade!
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    FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...
    Send them all for re-education.
    They've been offered a £30k bribe, can you blame them for voting for Labour?
    A £30K bribe which they pay for. Smart.
    *Some* of them pay for. The clever will avoid it, to the cost of the others.

    As ever.
    A cold, hard nosed bribe of about £30k per kid, Middle class friends of mine with teenage kids, probably natural Tories, rather shamefacedly admitted they had decided to take the money, Not good governance, but understandable on a personal/family level.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,371
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    It looks as though you have lost seats.

    Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.

    It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    The live footage of May heading down the M4 looks like the coverage of the evacuation of the nurse who was diagnosed with ebola.

    About as toxic :-)
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    May resignation at midday in front of No.10, staying on until the new leader is unveiled. Basically, Cammo's speech from last year.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Well done to my friend James Cleverly in Braintree
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

    I wrote about this a month ago particularly regarding the East of England. Yet, PB Tories were talking about the exact opposite.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,919

    If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

    Yes. The "feckless and lazy" millennials have gamed FPP ruthlessly.

    The last laugh for the jilted generation.
    It's quite amusing.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Tory remainers stayed at home.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,267
    Labour gain Warrington South.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    No. You went to the country. And you lost.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,434

    If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

    Yes. The "feckless and lazy" millennials have gamed FPP ruthlessly.

    The last laugh for the jilted generation.
    See, you don't need online voting or PR to be heard, just show up in the right place in the right numbers.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,053

    If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

    Yes. The "feckless and lazy" millennials have gamed FPP ruthlessly.

    The last laugh for the jilted generation.
    Those pesky kids!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Superb night for Labour - Warrington s goes red
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour gain Warrington South
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    llefllef Posts: 298

    llef said:

    if SF win 7 seats, does that meant that 318 is the winning line?

    (650-7)/2 = 643/2 = 322 to win.
    thanks - im tired - or excited - or bad at maths!
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    kle4 said:

    Typo said:

    Jonathan said:

    So May rocked up in Slough. Labour won 62.9% of the vote.

    Christ. What on earth was going on in that campaign?
    They believed their own bullshit.
    Hillary Clinton 2.0. Exactly the same hubris.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Edin West LD gain
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Labour got 30% of vote in Scotland but only 6 seats.
    Tories 23% in Scotland 6 seats so far.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    alex. said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    Still a massive bonus at the next election that the Tories will actually be able to realistically scare their voters with the prospect of a Corbyn government. Hardly sensible to put him in before playing that card!
    No I don't think so, plus I'm not sure Corbyn will be there in 2022, a younger hard left leader will replace him and take the Labour party forwards on the same platform.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,114
    Labour GAIN Warrington South from Conservatives. Some people sneering about the IRA said it would never happen.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    alex. said:

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.

    It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.

    Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
    Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.
    It could hold for 22 months, quite easily.

    It only has to pass a couple of budgets. And the Oct 74-April 79 Government lasted despite having virtually no majority, same with Major after 1995.
    FTPA
    Indeed. FTPA actually makes a minority govt more stable, surely....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    kle4 said:

    Typo said:

    Jonathan said:

    So May rocked up in Slough. Labour won 62.9% of the vote.

    Christ. What on earth was going on in that campaign?
    They believed their own bullshit.
    Tory delivery rounds are weird - best to just do every house maybe.
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Labour gain warrington
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Amber Rudd might survive in Hastings?

    IF she does, the Tory leader candidates are:

    Boris
    Rudd
    Hammond
    Davis
    uhm...
    Fallon?

    anyone else?

    I think Boris wins this.

    Hunt.
    Er, no.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,988
    tlg86 said:

    Labour gain Warrington South.

    My fear that the whole Corbyn/IRA was priced in/irrelevant has borne out to be true.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,644
    jonny83 said:

    AR404 said:

    Recount in Hastings but Rudd ahead 'in the hundreds' according to BBC

    I hope she wins, lot of time for her.
    Hasn't she already lost?
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    tlg86 said:

    Labour gain Warrington South.

    You would have thought if Corbyn's history was going to resonate anywhere it would be there.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con did very well in Rother Valley. Majority cut to 8%
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,672
    Have the tv companies done any estimates on vote shares for other parties?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Hmm. Seems to me that the Tories still have a VERY slim path to a majority. Hope I'm wrong.
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    atia2atia2 Posts: 207

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    No. You went to the country. And you lost.
    That "Corbynite rabble" has just secured a huge amount of support from the general public.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    nunu said:

    Tory remainers stayed at home.

    I wonder if they will regret that in morning
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,320
    Chameleon said:

    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can may hang on?

    No. The knives are out already.
    No knives needed. She'll go of her own accord, and rightly so.
    Who do you think is most likely to replace her?
    Someone equally shit, who will bang on about the same things, and go out the same way.
    "Mr Hammond, they're playing your song..."
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    EPG said:

    Labour GAIN Warrington South from Conservatives. Some people sneering about the IRA said it would never happen.

    I knew that screaming 'IRA' was never going to gain the Tories votes.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Second recounta t Southampton Itchen.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    It looks as though you have lost seats.

    Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.

    It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
    You've still lost that one.

    Suck it up.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    May resignation at midday in front of No.10, staying on until the new leader is unveiled. Basically, Cammo's speech from last year.

    Ironic that she may get the highest vote share for 46 years.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,341
    Con vote not that inefficient.

    It's Con 44, Lab 41

    And Con will be 50 seats ahead
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,224
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

    Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.
    The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.
    yup

    And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.
    But looks like getting 44%.

    Now how much did Cameron manage ?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,371
    Danny565 said:

    Hmm. Seems to me that the Tories still have a VERY slim path to a majority. Hope I'm wrong.

    I hope you're right. Think through the consequences.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Foster ruling out propping up Corbyn.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,053

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

    Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.
    The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.
    yup

    And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.
    But looks like getting 44%.

    Now how much did Cameron manage ?
    Votes tallies are meaningless in FPTP.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Sturgeon staying on, defiant. Not spoken with people in Gordon.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,434
    Danny565 said:

    Hmm. Seems to me that the Tories still have a VERY slim path to a majority. Hope I'm wrong.

    Well they've lost some stunners and held some stunners, so if they can get more of the latter, it is still possible, but would be tricky.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,371
    GeoffM said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    It looks as though you have lost seats.

    Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.

    It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
    You've still lost that one.

    Suck it up.
    LOL. Care to explain that?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,933
    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    Quite. Fuck Opposition. Tories have more seats and an almost record percentage vote, and nearly a majority. Fuck handing the UK over to the Trots and terrorists of Labour.

    Form a minority government, find a better leader, a more popular manifesto, and a softer Brexit arrangement, and then return to the people.
    and lose.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    LOL - I thought I made a projection on low side at work - but I am going to look stupid on Monday
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Sky: Con 315-325. JCICINPM, surely.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    EPG said:

    Labour GAIN Warrington South from Conservatives. Some people sneering about the IRA said it would never happen.

    I knew that screaming 'IRA' was never going to gain the Tories votes.
    I KNEW the North was swinging back to Labour big time in the final weeks, I could just feel it in my bones.

    Midlands relatively poor for Lab, though.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @skyelections: Conservative gain #Berwickshire from SNP #GE2017
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Danny565 said:

    Hmm. Seems to me that the Tories still have a VERY slim path to a majority. Hope I'm wrong.

    I hope you're right. Think through the consequences.
    Sky saying Tory 315-325 so hung parliament!
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    Chameleon said:

    I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.

    The con lack of majority I hope? Not anything going on in NI?
    I think Tom is going to lose now.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,351
    surbiton said:

    If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.

    I wrote about this a month ago particularly regarding the East of England. Yet, PB Tories were talking about the exact opposite.
    Ah, another one for the busted PB myths list

    - Tory vote is hyper-efficient
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,694

    TMay could get 44%!!

    Bang in line with the polls.
    Lol @ the polls! One poll?
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Priti Patel, the next PM, holds her seat ;-)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IDS's majority was cut to just 2,438 votes.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    Quite. Fuck Opposition. Tories have more seats and an almost record percentage vote, and nearly a majority. Fuck handing the UK over to the Trots and terrorists of Labour.

    Form a minority government, find a better leader, a more popular manifesto, and a softer Brexit arrangement, and then return to the people.
    and lose.
    so be it - but try to keep stalinists from power
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    No. You went to the country. And you lost.
    Not sure that winning the most votes and most seats counts as losing. We didn't win, but we also didn't lose.
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    llefllef Posts: 298
    full recount in ceredigion
    less than 150 votes between 1st and 2nd
    expected in 30 mins
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,781
    edited June 2017

    I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

    Not saying you're wrong, but by what process?
    My thinking is that this somehow happens via Boris' previous idea of a 2nd referendum. He believed from the outset that the EU would not negotiate meaningfully with us until we rejected them in an initial EU referendum.
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Jackie Doyle price has won 3 elections in 3 figures lucky lucky girl
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,434
    Oh wow, I didn't realise the SDLP had lost all their seats.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Will Con + DUP >=323?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,442

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

    Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.
    The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.
    yup

    And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.
    But looks like getting 44%.

    Now how much did Cameron manage ?
    Yes but Cameron cleverly split the working class left wing vote by using UKIP as a foil. ;)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,988

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

    Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.
    The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.
    yup

    And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.
    But looks like getting 44%.

    Now how much did Cameron manage ?
    133 net seat gains.

    The pound shop Bonar Law lost seats.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Cons GAIN Berwick
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCPhilipSim: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - Conservative GAIN from SNP.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,114
    Pulpstar said:

    I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.

    Did the DUP win because it offered a positive vision >?
    One seat in Antrim they won back after a loss in 2015. One seat won on 30% versus opposition divided 3 ways, after finishing in the pack in 2015. Generally speaking, the two communities are uniting around their larger parties, which isn't great in the long run.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    hunchman said:

    Danny565 said:

    Hmm. Seems to me that the Tories still have a VERY slim path to a majority. Hope I'm wrong.

    I hope you're right. Think through the consequences.
    Sky saying Tory 315-325 so hung parliament!
    If it is 7 SF MPs, then that reduces the effective majority to 318 ...
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    davidthecondavidthecon Posts: 165
    Go to the moderate Labour mps, tell them to elect a different parlimentary leader so the left piss off. Offer a national government to run things for the period of Brexit talks.
    Tory PM, Labour Chancellor, (try and get Balls back in parliament pronto). Stability at least?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Richmond stays blue
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017
    Fantastic exit poll in hard circumstances.

    Congratulations Curtice et al.
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    If CON reach 44% it would be the best result for any party since CON in 1970.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    dr_spyn said:

    Foster ruling out propping up Corbyn.

    Foster would be lynched if she did. Whilst much of her hinterland is slightly left of centre there are certain principles at work that you just won;t break.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    SNP getting monstered
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,053

    Cons GAIN Berwick

    Hold?
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,623

    Sky: Con 315-325. JCICINPM, surely.

    Tories need to be down to 295 or so, realistically, for JICIPM. He needs about 280 seats plus 30 SNP but confidence and supply from Lib Dems. Even then it's tight.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Tory Labour seat crossover incoming!
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,919
    edited June 2017
    3 more losses for the SNP.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Also: Labour's raw votes tally isn't going to be far off 1997, I think.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,644
    2 wins in Scotland for Tories. But they can't keep up with English losses.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,053
    Danny565 said:

    Also: Labour's raw votes tally isn't going to be far off 1997, I think.

    Madness!
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,919
    WAK gone Con.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
    No. You went to the country. And you lost.
    Not sure that winning the most votes and most seats counts as losing. We didn't win, but we also didn't lose.
    The next PM will have to have the skill to explain that although we didn't beat all other parties put together, we had more votes and more seats. And are the only option.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,988
    LD gain Edinburgh SW

    Con gain Berwick

    Lab gain Lincoln !!
This discussion has been closed.