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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,928
    Scott_P said:

    @akmaciver: Being told Alex Salmond has DEFINITELY lost. #GE2017

    Woohoo!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Bobajob_PB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Got to get up for work at 7, so signing off.
    Listening to Mrs May, losing the will to stay awake anyway.

    With many thanks to Mr Herdson, for prompting me to multiply my minority govt bets last night.

    Yep. @david_herdson proved right.
    The likes of DH and TP have been shat on by CCHQ.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    The second sentence answers your first, perhaps.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    alex. said:

    3rd recount in Hastings

    Poor Amber :-(
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    Scott_P said:

    @akmaciver: Being told Alex Salmond has DEFINITELY lost. #GE2017

    Oh such joy
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    bigjohnowls said:

    What was Exit Poll

    Latest forecast 318/267

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/872921570934706179
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    EPG said:

    LD Stunner of a hold in Carshalton and the oft-forgotten Wallington

    What was the result?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Losers:

    T May, N Sturgeon, Tories, SNP,, Martin Boon, ICM

    Winners:

    J CORBYN, J McDonnell, EMILY THORNBERRY, YOUGOV , Survation
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @akmaciver: Being told Alex Salmond has DEFINITELY lost. #GE2017

    oh dear what a shame - HA!
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    Remember, "Brexit negotiations start in just 11 days' time."
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    My blackbirds are singing this morning .....and I cannot go go to bed.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    surbiton said:

    Losers:

    T May, N Sturgeon, Tories, SNP,, Martin Boon, ICM

    Winners:

    J CORBYN, J McDonnell, EMILY THORNBERRY, YOUGOV , Survation

    SCON? :D
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited June 2017
    12 months ago I was joking about the laughable idea of PM Corbyn visiting the Trump White House. Now...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Bim elected in Harpenden .... Mrs JackW will be pleased.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    KentRising said:

    alex. said:

    3rd recount in Hastings

    Poor Amber :-(
    Brilliant the prolonged agony but she's LOST.....and she's LOST DESERVEDLY
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: Conservatives now expecting to win more than 12 seats in Scotland. Absolutely incredible. #GE2017
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,124
    Junker must be weeing his pants
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Lab gain Leamington!
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Con hold Morley. That's a surprise the way the night has been going.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Rosie cooper holds on

    Warwick leamington gain
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    surbiton said:

    Losers:

    T May, N Sturgeon, Tories, SNP,, Martin Boon, ICM

    Winners:

    J CORBYN, J McDonnell, EMILY THORNBERRY, YOUGOV , Survation

    Ruth is a winner
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2017
    Southam: Your sons won it for Labour.

    I thought the Midlands will be a bloodbath for Labour.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Ben Bradshaw gor 62% in Exeter
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    surbiton said:

    Losers:

    T May, N Sturgeon, Tories, SNP,, Martin Boon, ICM

    Winners:

    J CORBYN, J McDonnell, EMILY THORNBERRY, YOUGOV , Survation

    Thank you for leaving off PB Tories from the losers column.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    bigjohnowls said:

    What was Exit Poll

    Latest forecast 318/267

    Tories were on 314 in the exit, so only a small nudge-up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    So that's two out of three general election campaigns in this country Sir Lynton Crosby has 'lost'

    Looks like 2015 was down to Dave and George, not the Aussie
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    As bad a night as this has been for May and the Tories, if Labour were so wonderful, should they not have won a majority (or at least got close)?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,230
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/keirsimmons/status/873004826824769537

    Arn't invitations for State Visits extended by the queen?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Con hold Morley & Outwood.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Some unhelpful LD good results. If we had held those then we could have been on for 322/323?

    Just unhelpful results coming through now Derby N
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    AndyJS said:

    Con hold Morley & Outwood.

    Eh??
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    So what happens if in October PM Priti goes for a majority by offering:

    No dementia tax
    £350m more for the NHS
    Cancel all student debts
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Junker must be weeing his pants

    Has he drunk too much again?
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Labour GAIN Warwick.

    PAGING @SouthamObserver

    Labour GAIN Canterbury.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Conservatives now expecting to win more than 12 seats in Scotland. Absolutely incredible. #GE2017

    wow.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/keirsimmons/status/873004826824769537

    Yes, let's stay in the single market, have Soft Brexit, form close relationships with European leaders and tell Trump to f*ck off.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Derby North - goes red
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    surbiton said:

    Losers:

    T May, N Sturgeon, Tories, SNP,, Martin Boon, ICM

    Winners:

    J CORBYN, J McDonnell, EMILY THORNBERRY, YOUGOV , Survation

    Has Martin Boon tweeted his KABOON IV yet?
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Tory gain Middlesbrough's south
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,928
    Leamington.

    Did SO get back on the train in time?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Con since WW1

    9.3% swing
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Derby north gone Lab.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    LD hold Carshalton, excellent
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,486
    Two lessons to be learnt here:

    1. Leadership elections MATTER. Coronations don't work in a democracy. Corbyn - for all his faults - was tested in 2 elections and now this one. May wasn't - until this one.

    And, no 2, don't call unnecessary elections.

    Sad about Clegg. Pleased that Norman Lamb held on.

    God knows what it means for Brexit. An even bigger FUBAR than before, I expect.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Andrew said:

    Spreads: C316 L267 LD11 SNP 31.5

    No room for error. Corbyn can buy off the LDs with EU sweeties.

    And get to 278? To do what exactly? Lose a Queen's Speech?
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    It has one of the highest %ages of 18-25's in the country, there's been massive expansion of the university and colleges in recent years. So a prime beneficiary of the young being arsed to vote.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Good night everyone
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/keirsimmons/status/873004826824769537

    Yes, let's stay in the single market, have Soft Brexit, form close relationships with European leaders and tell Trump to f*ck off.
    All of those are bad things.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    And Kingston! I have a Lib Dem MP again :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Some pretty tight Lab gains from Con (such as Canterbury) - crucial to preventing a slim Con majority. (I think that ship has sailed)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,928
    Lab gain Canterbury.

    People want the change the Europhobes promised.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited June 2017
    midwinter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    Uni
    Given how important university term times have turned out to be, I wonder whether timing the election to be just a couple of weeks later to miss the end of term could have changed a few seats!
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    bigjohnowls said:

    What was Exit Poll

    Latest forecast 318/267

    Tory 315 I think. Will be near as dammit again?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497
    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    The second sentence answers your first, perhaps.
    Seriously, can somebody explain to me what went wrong in Canterbury? Local issues? A scandal?

    What was it?
  • dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    LD Gain Caithness
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    London, the Tory graveyard. I wanted Chingford though.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Conservatives now expecting to win more than 12 seats in Scotland. Absolutely incredible. #GE2017

    WOW
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Mortimer said:

    Andrew said:

    Spreads: C316 L267 LD11 SNP 31.5

    No room for error. Corbyn can buy off the LDs with EU sweeties.

    And get to 278? To do what exactly? Lose a Queen's Speech?
    SNP would back him too.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Amber Rudd has gone.Fantastic win for Labour in Peterborough.Good win for Daniel Zeichner in Cambridge,another Labour gain in Ipswich but poor old Chris Jones lost to Chloe Smith by 500 votes in Norwich North .Clive Lewis is king of all he surveys in Norwich South but Norman Lamb refuses to go on the spit and beats off tough Tory challenge.North Norfolk was like Rorkes' Drift.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,005
    tlg86 said:

    As bad a night as this has been for May and the Tories, if Labour were so wonderful, should they not have won a majority (or at least got close)?

    You would think so.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Caithness, thank you, thank you.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Conservatives now expecting to win more than 12 seats in Scotland. Absolutely incredible. #GE2017

    YAY

    And Yay yay and thrice yay for TSE >9.5 tip, which goes some way to balancing the books.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    dmc82 said:

    LD Gain Caithness

    Yay!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Mark Senior must be pleased with Lib Dems results
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LD gain Caithness.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,672
    Let's give credit to Tim Farron. Written off, lots of speculation about an English wipe out, even by me for about 90 minutes. Instead he's going to gain seats.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    kle4 said:

    Some pretty tight Lab gains from Con (such as Canterbury) - crucial to preventing a slim Con majority. (I think that ship has sailed)

    And some surprising LD gains and hold vs Con
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Another Lib Dem gain. Almost certainly 10 or above.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    The second sentence answers your first, perhaps.
    Seriously, can somebody explain to me what went wrong in Canterbury? Local issues? A scandal?

    What was it?
    University.
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    Send for Ruth at the first opportunity
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Brake by 1300.

    He was one the invisible LDs as I call them (probably unfairly) - the smaller names who snuck through the massacre last time. And he's survived again. Welldone.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Lol! Nicola says Labour surged in Scotland.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    People clamouring for Boris when we are about to go into some of the most important negotiations this country has had for years. I don't get it...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    We must find a way to get Ruth Davidson in parliament, and then as PM. The only sensible senior Tories these days.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    If Salmond follows Robertson out of Westminster, who will be the SNP group leader? Wishart?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    LDs up to 9, and O&S still to report.

    Sorry for LDs < 10

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Turns out the reported Tory gain in Dagenham was fake news. Lab hold by 4,652 votes.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Amber Rudd byebye
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    AndyJS said:

    Con hold Morley & Outwood.

    Jenkyns get 51% !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    surbiton said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    The second sentence answers your first, perhaps.
    Seriously, can somebody explain to me what went wrong in Canterbury? Local issues? A scandal?

    What was it?
    University.
    So much for someone saying they were all back at home. Clearly students are bright enough to arrange PVs
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Andrew said:

    Spreads: C316 L267 LD11 SNP 31.5

    No room for error. Corbyn can buy off the LDs with EU sweeties.

    Don't forget to add one to tory total for John woodcock.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    rcs1000 said:

    LDs up to 9, and O&S still to report.

    Sorry for LDs < 10

    Your post a few minutes a go prompted me to cash out my position. Thanks.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    not_on_fire said:

    And Kingston! I have a Lib Dem MP again :)

    It was my vote that did it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Interesting that Canterbury had no UKIP cabdidate this time but it did the Tories no good at all, with Labour up 20%,
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    CS&ER LD Gain
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Steurgeon sounding like she's close to resignation.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,765
    Next election not going to be pretty for the Tories. Myth of invincibility gone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    Chameleon said:

    Another Lib Dem gain. Almost certainly 10 or above.

    13 in the bag, chance of 16-17
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    bigjohnowls said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Andrew said:

    Spreads: C316 L267 LD11 SNP 31.5

    No room for error. Corbyn can buy off the LDs with EU sweeties.

    And get to 278? To do what exactly? Lose a Queen's Speech?
    SNP would back him too.
    Which still wouldn't be enough.

    We're looking at Tories having more seats (ATM) than any prospective coalition of chaos.

    At this stage, it ain't happening.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    The second sentence answers your first, perhaps.
    Seriously, can somebody explain to me what went wrong in Canterbury? Local issues? A scandal?

    What was it?
    They story of that will be a Tale...

    I thank you.

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/keirsimmons/status/873004826824769537

    Yes, let's stay in the single market, have Soft Brexit, form close relationships with European leaders and tell Trump to f*ck off.
    I thought the path to an EFTA/EEA solution was missed last autumn. I think I was wrong.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Conservatives now expecting to win more than 12 seats in Scotland. Absolutely incredible. #GE2017

    YAY

    And Yay yay and thrice yay for TSE >9.5 tip, which goes some way to balancing the books.
    With respect to TSE, I believe it was @GeoffM who first tipped that bet at 20/1
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    jonny83 said:

    People clamouring for Boris when we are about to go into some of the most important negotiations this country has had for years. I don't get it...

    David Davis, surely? Wouldn't jeopardise the extra votes that the Tories have put on in this election either. Boris would be ridiculous.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    The_Apocalypse said:

    We must find a way to get Ruth Davidson in parliament, and then as PM. The only sensible senior Tories these days.

    Boris leader at Westminster, Davidson staying as leader in Scotland is clearly the best electoral combination for Tories. Goodnight
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    The_Apocalypse said:

    We must find a way to get Ruth Davidson in parliament, and then as PM. The only sensible senior Tories these days.

    She can't. She cannot abandon Holyrood, and theywould not be rewarded for forcing a by-election somehow.

    Allow her to attend Cabinet in an advisory capacity. Something.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Any news on Cheltenham?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    NickPalmer said:

    Interesting that Canterbury had no UKIP cabdidate this time but it did the Tories no good at all, with Labour up 20%,

    I think Ukip made a mistake in this regard.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Con hold Morley & Outwood.

    !
    Its weird. Close ones are holding on but those less obviously vulnerable are falling.
This discussion has been closed.