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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    Come on. Need to rinse out 5-7 more gains here guys.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_P said:

    @andrewlearmonth: Tories says 700 ahead of Salmond in Gordon

    Hehe.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    IanB2 said:

    ITV call Witney Tory hold

    BBC Oxford were a bit quick off the mark then
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894

    Con hold Witney.

    So it was bullshit.

    Bizarre. 11 looks like right. May be 12, may be 10.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    SeanT said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    Debates...who needs to do them....
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,672
    Eastbourne Stunner of a Lib Dem Gain
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,125
    SeanT said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    As I posted - its the manifesto's, stupid
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    LDs gain Eastbourne.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    This is not the victory speech of a strong and stable leader. It's the speech of someone who tried to destroy the labour movement AND FAILED

    We(well you) shall not, we shall not be moved.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    Chameleon said:

    Farron was only safe by 900 votes, wow.

    Excellent value loser
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288

    HYUFD said:

    Not Boris.

    If Boris become PM, I'm going to join the Labour party, and vote Labour in the next local election, and GE. I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than HIM.

    Yes, well Boris is the populist we need I am afraid. Labour have gone populist under Corbyn and gained a swing to them, we need to get an even better populist and that is Boris. So it will be Brexit but perhaps slightly fudged, austerity ended and taxes slashed, gateaux for all to trump Corbyn's icecreams for all!
    Boris isn't a populist he's a f*cking idiot. This fool doesn't know what the hell he believes. He'd be a disaster for this country.
    Boris is a t****r. His acceptance speech had nothing of any note or relevance to the situation the country faces.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Labour are picking up seats in the suburbs...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Brexiteers 0 Saboteurs 1 (May og 89)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    SeanT said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    Debates...who needs to do them....
    Probably individually they don't, but combine them all together....
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Looks like 318?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Eastbourne goes yellow
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Damn, we lost Eastbourne! I did say it was more vulnerable than Lewes, but I thought it would still be a hold.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    kle4 said:

    This is not the victory speech of a strong and stable leader. It's the speech of someone who tried to destroy the labour movement AND FAILED

    We(well you) shall not, we shall not be moved.
    SHE HAS PAID WITH HER CAREER
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gloucester: Con hold.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Just had a hilarious realisation. If the Tories only have a majority due to Scottish MPs, won't EVFEL prevent them from passing a lot of legislation?

    :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    EPG said:

    Eastbourne Stunner of a Lib Dem Gain

    I literally only noticed yesterday it was such a small majority, and wondered why I hadn't seen it mentioned as a potential gain. A returner.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    Floater said:

    Eastbourne goes yellow

    What?

    That wasn't on my list.

    PLATO YOU IDIOT
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    kle4 said:

    Many models has Lamb down as a 95+% probable loss.

    He may be the ultimate survivor of the LDs - Clegg and Mulholland did not survive, Williams might not, Pugh didn't stand again to see, Farron isn't safe, has Brake lost yet?

    Lots of these models seem to have 95%, 99% "almost certain" results that don't come off.

    Have these models massively underestimated the uncertainty/variability?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited June 2017

    Oliver said:

    Come on Theresa, say strong and stable just for old time's sake.

    I do feel sorry for her. You don't want to get to the highest office in the land only to relinquish it a mere year later... Sadly, she didn't have a leadership campaign proper, and she wasn't shown up as being, well, utterly useless at actually campaigning.
    May, Hillary, Gillard, Royal, sad to say voters do not like earnest, hardbitten women leaders it seems, Merkel the exception but she can be fat and jovial. Thatcher was in the right place at the right time
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Just like February 1974
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Recount in Broxtowe
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @stephenkb: The banter result where Scotland imposes a Tory government on England is on!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    May deliberately says that the Conservative Party will ensure stability. All references to herself notably absent.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Shocking for Nuttall
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Gosh 3308 loonies in Boston.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546

    kle4 said:

    Many models has Lamb down as a 95+% probable loss.

    He may be the ultimate survivor of the LDs - Clegg and Mulholland did not survive, Williams might not, Pugh didn't stand again to see, Farron isn't safe, has Brake lost yet?

    Has to be a big personal vote and quite right too. One of the good guys.
    So was Clegg. As I've said for ages, the history books will see the coalition very differently from how we saw it in 2015.
    The Coalition was actually very "Strong and Stable" ;-)
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Ave_it said:

    Looks like 318?

    At best. For every great Scottish gain there's needless losses in England.

    Canterbury? Eastbourne? Portsmouth South? FFS!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    Ave_it said:

    Looks like 318?

    318 + 10 DUP = theoretical majority (because of lack of SF) of what, 4-6?

    Amusing times ahead.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    Next Tory leader needs to be able to debate effectively (now part of elections and expected by the public), offer a positive vision and answer questions straight.

    May found out too easily.

    That and some charisma. Someone who can compete against Corbyn.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    Lib Dems gain Kingston and Surbiton
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    LDs gain Kingston, wow.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    HYUFD said:

    Not Boris.

    If Boris become PM, I'm going to join the Labour party, and vote Labour in the next local election, and GE. I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than HIM.

    Yes, well Boris is the populist we need I am afraid. Labour have gone populist under Corbyn and gained a swing to them, we need to get an even better populist and that is Boris. So it will be Brexit but perhaps slightly fudged, austerity ended and taxes slashed, gateaux for all to trump Corbyn's icecreams for all!
    Boris isn't a populist he's a f*cking idiot. This fool doesn't know what the hell he believes. He'd be a disaster for this country.
    Well said, spot on.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LD gain Kingston & Surbiton.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not Boris.

    If Boris become PM, I'm going to join the Labour party, and vote Labour in the next local election, and GE. I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than HIM.

    Yes, well Boris is the populist we need I am afraid. Labour have gone populist under Corbyn and gained a swing to them, we need to get an even better populist and that is Boris. So it will be Brexit but perhaps slightly fudged, austerity ended and taxes slashed, gateaux for all to trump Corbyn's icecreams for all!
    Boris isn't a populist he's a f*cking idiot. This fool doesn't know what the hell he believes. He'd be a disaster for this country.
    Boris is a t****r. His acceptance speech had nothing of any note or relevance to the situation the country faces.
    This country would never be taken seriously if he became PM. Can't believe he's foreign secretary.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    SeanT said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    We know the Tory lead, of some major description, was real by election results. It changed big.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Warwick goes red
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,889
    It looks like the Tories will form a minority government. But will May lead it? I've reversed my Boris bets to be PM after the GE but who knows?
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Ave_it said:

    Looks like 318?

    You might be right. How do the Tories now get a majority? Labour are picking up lots of seats in England & Wales. Yes, there is an offset in Scotland. But is there enough?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    SeanT said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    People won't vote for a left wing extremist
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,381
    Nuttall fails!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    surbiton said:

    Just like February 1974

    Except for the Liberal vote
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:

    Eastbourne goes yellow

    What?

    That wasn't on my list.

    PLATO YOU IDIOT
    LOL.

    I hope everyone cashed out of LD under 10...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Nuttal comes 3rd snigger
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lab gain Warwick & Leamington.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,346
    Hahahahahaha

    Paul Nuttall
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    LucyJones said:

    Next Tory leader needs to be able to debate effectively (now part of elections and expected by the public), offer a positive vision and answer questions straight.

    May found out too easily.

    That and some charisma. Someone who can compete against Corbyn.
    Step forward David Ca-

    Oh.....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:

    Eastbourne goes yellow

    What?

    That wasn't on my list.

    PLATO YOU IDIOT
    An easy Con hold in Lewes but a LibDem gain in Eastbourne ?

    But isn't there a lot of old people with nice houses in Eastbourne ?
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    Eastbourne kills the LD<10 bet, which was a great value loser at 5.8 two days ago.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    EPG said:

    Eastbourne Stunner of a Lib Dem Gain

    Not really. Eastbourne swaps frequently just for the hell of it.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Lots of SNP majorities paper thin.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    LD gain Kingston
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    Kingston LD Gain
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299

    Better coverage on BBC this GE, fewer wanky graphics

    I just turned over in response to your comment and see Jeremy Vine walking around a virtual reality wanky graphic.
    Yes, apologies
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    AndyJS said:

    LD gain Kingston & Surbiton.

    Given Twickenham, that was always likely.

    Can't see them on less than 12 now.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    The most enjoyable election night I can remember.

    :+1:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lab maj in Canterbury is 187.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Labour are picking up seats in the suburbs...
    yep, she has put the socially liberal Tory remainers like TSE and ScottP right off.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    LD forecast down to 11
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    Just not quite enough seats here.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    edited June 2017
    Ed Balls's old seat stays tory. How come last time it took until 7am to declare?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    LDs hold C&W, a good night for them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    C&W LD hold
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Lol ed Davey back.

    My life dem canvasser friend was right. Happy for her
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,933

    LucyJones said:

    Next Tory leader needs to be able to debate effectively (now part of elections and expected by the public), offer a positive vision and answer questions straight.

    May found out too easily.

    That and some charisma. Someone who can compete against Corbyn.
    Step forward David Ca-

    Oh.....
    The Europhobes have really f*cked up the country.

    It's a shame they'll almost all be abroad to suffer the conequences.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    SeanT said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina walk on water.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,672

    Brexiteers 0 Saboteurs 1 (May og 89)

    Surely May og 65+?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    SNP still forecast to have a majority of Scottishseats. Come on gang, you can do it(damn you perth)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,526

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Feel sorry for Theresa May here. Found wanting. Overpromoted and exposed. It happens. We all reach our limit and she did it very publicly and humiliatingly.

    Sad, but she must now go.

    She got greedy.
    So did I. Now sitting on a nasty spreadbet loss.
    You're not the only one. I think I'm a grand down tonight :(
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @akmaciver: Being told Alex Salmond has DEFINITELY lost. #GE2017
  • glwglw Posts: 10,005
    kle4 said:

    THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    We know the Tory lead, of some major description, was real by election results. It changed big.

    Mostly down to the manifesto. Take you house versus Santa's present list (utterly unaffordable though it is).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    What was Exit Poll

    Latest forecast 318/267
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    3rd recount in Hastings
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    Tories have lost. Clinging on with a minority government would be a mistake. Accept defeat after 7 years in power.

    No, Tories will have a majority with DUP most likely, send for Boris, go full on populist, end austerity, slash taxes for working families do Brexit but fudged is my advice. Anyway off to bed in a second, becoming pretty clear now where we are headed. Am pleased though the SNP getting a big swing against them though, indeed even a Corbyn Labour gain from the SNP is a Unionist gain for me. Night all
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,672
    LD Stunner of a hold in Carshalton and the oft-forgotten Wallington
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    Uni
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,933

    Just not quite enough seats here.

    And why is that?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    We know the Tory lead, of some major description, was real by election results. It changed big.

    Mostly down to the manifesto. Take you house versus Santa's present list (utterly unaffordable though it is).
    Next campaign is going to be open season on unaffordable freebies.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,231
    DearPB said:

    May speaking of 'we' the Conservatives, not 'I' Theresa May with regard to stability

    Yes, it was noticeable that she talked about how she talked about the Conservative Party seeing Brexit through......
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Spreads: C316 L267 LD11 SNP 31.5

    No room for error. Corbyn can buy off the LDs with EU sweeties.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    IanB2 said:

    C&W LD hold

    Was told I was wrong. My of canvass friend said all seats would be he!d or gained in sw London.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    SeanT said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina walk on water.
    And, of course, the famous Shy Tories
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Cantab is something I thought could never happen
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    We know the Tory lead, of some major description, was real by election results. It changed big.
    And the local elections just a month before the general!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,526

    Con hold Witney.

    Phew!
This discussion has been closed.