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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do

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  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    LOL at LibDem ramping in Vauxhall
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MaxPB said:

    Can may hang on?

    No. The knives are out already.
    No knives needed. She'll go of her own accord, and rightly so.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Con so far down 9 seats

    12 gains
    21 losses
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Chameleon said:

    Lab hold City of Chester.

    I had a SkyBet special of Labour to hold Chester, Alyn and Ellesemere at 11/1.

    Very nice.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    OchEye said:

    Scott_P said:

    @akmaciver: Being told Alex Salmond has DEFINITELY lost. #GE2017

    He'll hold back till the next election in the autumn, then he'll try for Holyrood, again to take over from Sturgeon.
    Which will go down like a cup of cold sick. It's a delightful prospect.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,527
    LOL at whoever said LDs would win Vauxhall.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Scott_P said:

    @paulhutcheon: Senior SNP sources telling me second indyref is dead #2017Election

    deader than disco.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Lib Dems within 1% on canvass o_O ?!
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    plaid won arfon by 92 votes.
    is that the smallest margin so far??
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    Jaisus.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    EPG said:

    LD Stunner of a hold in Carshalton and the oft-forgotten Wallington

    And the wholly ignored Beddington!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Seems like despite a few losses (poor Clegg...and the other guy), England has been good for the LDs, as is Scotland, and only Wales might let them down- no word from Ceredigion and the recount?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    MikeL said:

    Con so far down 9 seats

    12 gains
    21 losses

    Thanks for that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Ilford N Lab
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    To whom?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    So can we say that Theresa may has saved the Union? ;)
  • MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    The second sentence answers your first, perhaps.
    Seriously, can somebody explain to me what went wrong in Canterbury? Local issues? A scandal?

    What was it?
    i didnt think it would happen but-
    change in demographics
    large public sector employment and growing
    MAIN REASON
    Awful candidate-the oldies love him but personally i think he is dreadful (and i am 50 this year)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @euanmccolm: sturgeon and her team currently have no idea what to do. these results have caught them unawares. the fm is about to be severely tested.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    AndyJS said:

    Jeffrey Donaldson may be Foreign Secretary in a few days' time.

    That would be hilarious but nah, the DUP won't go for that kind of arrangement.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Lab gain Weaver Vale, wherever that is
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    LOL at LibDem ramping in Vauxhall

    That was just to distract from them taking Eastbourne!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    Chameleon said:

    Derby north gone Lab.

    Good news for animal welfare people - Chris Williamson is exceptionally committed on that.
    Excellent.....

    Foxes will be breathing a little easier tonight too....and the badger cull????
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Home truths time.

    The Tories have lost.

    Give it up.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    MaxPB said:

    Can may hang on?

    No. The knives are out already.
    No knives needed. She'll go of her own accord, and rightly so.
    Who do you think is most likely to replace her?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Good news hard Brexiteers, Andrea Leadsom re-elected
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    Kellner says Tory voteshare will be up to 44%
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    To whom?
    Please Soubry lose. A disgrace to the Tory party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    Edinburgh West LD gain from SNP
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    MaxPB said:

    I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

    I seriously doubt it, I think we'll get a referendum on what comes next. Hard Brexit vs EEA/EFTA is my bet.
    It's a dumb choice.

    A five year transition period of EEA/EFTA (during which we can forge new relationships), followed by a referendum on the future relationship with the EU.

    Everyone should be able to agree to that.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    So May rocked up in Slough. Labour won 62.9% of the vote.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    rcs1000 said:

    Who would have bet that Lamb and Brake would hold on, but that Mulholland and Clegg would go?

    I'm surprised that the Conservatives gained Southport as yet again they're doing completely shite in Greater Merseyside.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Chameleon said:

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    Jaisus.
    Wow
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    Chesterfield Lab hold
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    if SF win 7 seats, does that meant that 318 is the winning line?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    Redditch Con hold
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    IanB2 said:

    Ilford N Lab

    Another huge hold for Labour.
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oliver said:

    Come on Theresa, say strong and stable just for old time's sake.

    I do feel sorry for her. You don't want to get to the highest office in the land only to relinquish it a mere year later... Sadly, she didn't have a leadership campaign proper, and she wasn't shown up as being, well, utterly useless at actually campaigning.
    May, Hillary, Gillard, Royal, sad to say voters do not like earnest, hardbitten women leaders it seems, Merkel the exception but she can be fat and jovial. Thatcher was in the right place at the right time
    She also had something to say.

    May didn't.

    She - and the Tories - believed her own propaganda. Hubris.
    Correct. It's the carefully presented empty heads that people object to. There has never been a more vacuous and inept campaign than May's. Indeed, can anyone recall what she "campaigned" on?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Whatever else has happened tonight, Scottish Indy has taken a severe setback. That is good news.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    SeanT said:

    I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

    Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.
    The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,216
    Edinburgh West back to Lib Dems.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.

    It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.

    Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
    Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.
    No new election - they will just genuinely have to treat carefully and reach for consensus.

    Oh thank goodness, Rees-Mogg is back in.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCPhilipSim: Edinburgh West is a Lib Dem GAIN from the SNP.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    Are you supposed to reveal things like that?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    alex. said:

    Lab gain Weaver Vale, wherever that is

    North Cheshire. Geography lessons dear boy!
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,551
    has NI really gone 10 to DUP and 6 to SF???
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Chester

    Lab 56.8
    Con 40.5
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,234
    Y0kel said:

    Chameleon said:

    Can may hang on?

    No. She'll be knifed by the afternoon.
    This is correct, Tory leaders are mean't to win..not come 2nd and claim victory, but win. She didn't.
    While the Tories weakness is they 'only ever panic in a crisis' their strength is they are completely unsentimental about leaders....,,,,
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,384
    alex. said:

    Lab gain Weaver Vale, wherever that is

    Cheshire/Mersey borderlands
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    HYUFD said:

    Edinburgh West LD gain from SNP

    Can't say I'm surprised. The locals and Holyrood both pointed to it.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Can may hang on?

    No. The knives are out already.
    No knives needed. She'll go of her own accord, and rightly so.
    Who do you think is most likely to replace her?
    Someone equally shit, who will bang on about the same things, and go out the same way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    SNP only need 3 more for a majority of Scottish seats. Come on unionists.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,216
    Chameleon said:

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    Jaisus.
    Same as Fife NE. There is going to be some real cliff hangers tonight.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    Jonathan said:

    So May rocked up in Slough. Labour won 62.9% of the vote.

    Christ. What on earth was going on in that campaign?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    hunchman said:

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    To whom?
    Please Soubry lose. A disgrace to the Tory party.
    I'm going +1 on that.
    Happy to see her toast to anyone else.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    As well as the Conservatives holding Morley they had a bid swing in Penistone.

    Here's hoping that Wakefield can come through for DH.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    Y0kel said:

    Chameleon said:

    Can may hang on?

    No. She'll be knifed by the afternoon.
    This is correct, Tory leaders are mean't to win..not come 2nd and claim victory, but win. She didn't.
    While the Tories weakness is they 'only ever panic in a crisis' their strength is they are completely unsentimental about leaders....,,,,
    She gambled, she lost. She's finished, and I think she knows it.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Edinburgh West LD gain from SNP

    Can't say I'm surprised. The locals and Holyrood both pointed to it.
    You are fully justified in feeling smug about this one!
  • I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    alex. said:

    So can we say that Theresa may has saved the Union? ;)

    That's down to Ruth
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    hunchman said:

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    To whom?
    Please Soubry lose. A disgrace to the Tory party.
    She needs to win. Every remainers vote will be key.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.

    It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.

    Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
    Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.
    It could hold for 22 months, quite easily.

    It only has to pass a couple of budgets. And the Oct 74-April 79 Government lasted despite having virtually no majority, same with Major after 1995.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    rcs1000 said:

    Who would have bet that Lamb and Brake would hold on, but that Mulholland and Clegg would go?

    I'm surprised that the Conservatives gained Southport as yet again they're doing completely shite in Greater Merseyside.
    Southport is always guaranteed to misbehave. It always does the opposite of what you think!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,107
    Full recount for Amber Rudd
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    HYUFD said:

    Kellner says Tory voteshare will be up to 44%

    Astonishing that they cant get a majority off that.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.

    It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.

    Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
    Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.
    No new election - they will just genuinely have to treat carefully and reach for consensus.

    Oh thank goodness, Rees-Mogg is back in.
    Nah, this parliament is hung is just a way that no semi-stable government will be able to be formed. Back to the polls in autumn.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.

    It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.

    Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
    Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.
    No new election - they will just genuinely have to treat carefully and reach for consensus.

    Oh thank goodness, Rees-Mogg is back in.
    You are joking? You went to the country, you got your arses kicked.

    Go into opposition.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Full recount for Amber Rudd

    That's the fourth I think?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    another election by October?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    Kellner says Tory voteshare will be up to 44%

    my god! and still losing the majority.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,384
    edited June 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Ilford N Lab

    I had a feeling it would be, even as I voted
  • AR404AR404 Posts: 21
    Recount in Hastings but Rudd ahead 'in the hundreds' according to BBC
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635

    I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.

    Did the DUP win because it offered a positive vision >?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    llef said:

    if SF win 7 seats, does that meant that 318 is the winning line?

    (650-7)/2 = 643/2 = 322 to win.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    IanB2 said:

    hunchman said:

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    To whom?
    Please Soubry lose. A disgrace to the Tory party.
    She needs to win. Every remainers vote will be key.
    Hope Soubry can win in Broxtowe.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    TMay could get 44%!!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,234

    Vince back in Twickenham great news


    For Labour yes.....
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497
    JackW said:

    Any news on Cheltenham?

    Yes, it's a clear and pleasant morning in Cheltenham, Jack.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,672

    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LDs up to 9, and O&S still to report.

    Sorry for LDs < 10

    Bugger
    O&S is a cert.

    Edinburgh West likely.

    Argyll & Bute and RC&S are both close.

    Ceredgion is about 2,000 votes between first and fourth.

    LDs 12 or 13, I reckon.
    ITV saying 16 which is fine by me. Big churn in MPs indicates the LD party has a new makeup though. Seems like they have gained largely through Scottish tactical voting, not good for the long term.
    What was worse was having lots of MPs scattered all over the place whose electorates had little in common (2015). At least now it's clear that they are a Scottish unionist, and chintzy town / suburban anti-Tory party.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.

    It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.

    Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
    Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.
    It could hold for 22 months, quite easily.

    It only has to pass a couple of budgets. And the Oct 74-April 79 Government lasted despite having virtually no majority, same with Major after 1995.
    I doubt anyone wants a new election soon. The Tories need to spend the next year working on their manifesto, for starters!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2017

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.

    It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.

    Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
    Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.
    It could hold for 22 months, quite easily.

    It only has to pass a couple of budgets. And the Oct 74-April 79 Government lasted despite having virtually no majority, same with Major after 1995.
    FTPA
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Liverpool

    Labour lowest share is 77.7% for Maria Eagle. Luciana Berger got 79%, Twigg, Ellman and the new guy in Walton all in 80-85% range
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,951
    hunchman said:

    Broxtowe first count: margin of THREE VOTES!

    To whom?
    Please Soubry lose. A disgrace to the Tory party.
    Said by a non-small-c-conservative.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,889
    stjohn said:

    It looks like the Tories will form a minority government. But will May lead it? I've reversed my Boris bets to be PM after the GE but who knows?

    Quickly regretting this. Should have stuck with my instincts. At least for value.

    Now Betfair PM after GE

    May 1.82- 1.92
    Boris 5.3 - 5.9
    Corbyn 5.7 - 5.9
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Typo said:

    Jonathan said:

    So May rocked up in Slough. Labour won 62.9% of the vote.

    Christ. What on earth was going on in that campaign?
    They believed their own bullshit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll

    Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.

    321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
    No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.
    You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.

    You have lost.
    No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    AR404 said:

    Recount in Hastings but Rudd ahead 'in the hundreds' according to BBC

    Come on Amber.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    We haven't had a declaration yet from Hastings & Rye have we?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    I won't lie. After the Assembly election I felt bad. Now I feel like bawling if this is right.

    The con lack of majority I hope? Not anything going on in NI?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    If Tories are getting 44/45%. Their vote must be high inefficient.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    hunchman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Who would have bet that Lamb and Brake would hold on, but that Mulholland and Clegg would go?

    I'm surprised that the Conservatives gained Southport as yet again they're doing completely shite in Greater Merseyside.
    Southport is always guaranteed to misbehave. It always does the opposite of what you think!
    Look at what happened though - massive increase in the Labour vote to come second with 15,500 votes. It was supposed to be a Con-LD marginal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Do the Tories currently have a Deputy PM or First Secretary of State who could credibly be asked to be caretaker PM?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    TMay could get 44%!!

    And still have to resign
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    edited June 2017
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

    Much more likely. Not necessarily. But very possible.
    The Tories are going to be reliant on the DUP, that hard/soft border Brexit and the devolved government become a huge issue.
    yup

    And again, kudos to you for getting TMay right. Gordon Brown: but worse.
    Did Brown ever get 44%? This is no great result for May granted but she has still got a higher Tory voteshare than any Tory leader since 1979. Brown and May both serious, hardworking politicians but neither sadly had the charisma needed to win elections in modern politics, Boris is clearly the populist, charismatic choice the Tories need now, with Davidson staying in Scotland
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    kle4 said:

    Do the Tories currently have a Deputy PM or First Secretary of State who could credibly be asked to be caretaker PM?

    No.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    alex. said:

    Lab gain Weaver Vale, wherever that is

    It's where Corbyn was yesterday addressing a huge crowd.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    TMay could get 44%!!

    Bang in line with the polls.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.

    It should be ok with Con + DUP/UUP for a slim majority. I imagine it'd hold for the A50 period.

    Budgets will be difficult and will probably require talking to the LDs too.
    Bollocks. It will be massively unstable. New election inevitable. Parliament will now decide Brexit.
    No new election - they will just genuinely have to treat carefully and reach for consensus.

    Oh thank goodness, Rees-Mogg is back in.
    You are joking? You went to the country, you got your arses kicked.

    Go into opposition.
    Labour don't have the numbers.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709

    I think we're going to get a second referendum on the EU

    Not saying you're wrong, but by what process?
This discussion has been closed.