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Rishi Sunak looks like a homunculus. This may stymie his leadership ambitions – politicalbetting.com

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    So from what I have seen / read in Copenhagen yesterday we have the Danish and Finnish fans united chanting Christian Eriksen. And in London today we have Engerland fans booing first their own team and then the Croatian national anthem. Compare and contrast...

    They aren't exactly equivalent scenarios, are they?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    alex_ said:

    geoffw said:

    BBC News 24 incessant talking over Biden Windsor arrival very irritating - could learn from Hugh Edwards who knows when to keep quiet!

    It also happens in the tennis. ITV this time. In the womens' final the commentators Sam Smith and Anne Keothavong continued talking after the ball was served.
    It's like they all think they're on the radio and their viewers don't have eyes.
    Yeah. It went downhill after Dan Maskell and Jack Kramer.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,612

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    If it follows the pattern of other places then another week of steady increase followed by a slowing to a plateau.

    As to hospitalisations that depends on the number of anti-vaxxers.

    Brighton's vaccination numbers are only 61/40 but perhaps that is because of a younger population.

    I'd guess at less than 10% of the previous hospital numbers peak.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    The catch at the moment is these figures will reflect actions a week or so ago- when schools were on half term holiday. The key is in the door, the towel is on the rail, but not quite home and dry yet.
    The school holidays hopefully ought not to have made too much of a difference. Remember when the schools were the first thing to unlock back in March, and there were some doom-laden portents of resurgence? Nothing much happened at all, and the late March and April 12th steps both went ahead as planned.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    If it follows the pattern of other places then another week of steady increase followed by a slowing to a plateau.

    As to hospitalisations that depends on the number of anti-vaxxers.

    Brighton's vaccination numbers are only 61/40 but perhaps that is because of a younger population.

    I'd guess at less than 10% of the previous hospital numbers peak.
    Delaying lifting lockdown due to antivaxxers is absolutely disgusting.

    They've made their choice, it should be respected.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Delta (unsurprisingly) seems to be taking off in both Russia and China.

    China might just live to regret being virtually unvaccinated.
    Russian too. (And I expect vaccine hesitancy will not be tolerated in China.)

    https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1403766637342248966
    "... ~ 2/3 of Russians say they do not plan to get the vaccine. Analysts attribute hesitancy to a mix of factors: widespread distrust of the authorities & frequent state television reports describing the coronavirus as mostly defeated or not dangerous."
    The Russians seem to trust Uncle Vova about as much as we do. Possibly less.
    Rampant anti-vax movement in the CIS countries, even before covid. My wife has friends who home school their kids, because vaccines make them autistic according to Facebook.

    They’re also rolling their own covid vaccine in Russia, and no-one trusts it’s been tested properly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,707

    alex_ said:

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
    Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.

    Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
    I think measures have to continue in hospitals, but NHS England have told us that already.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,388
    ping said:

    Macedonia equalise!

    Disasterous mistake from Austria

    And disastrous spelling from Ping! :)
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100

    So from what I have seen / read in Copenhagen yesterday we have the Danish and Finnish fans united chanting Christian Eriksen. And in London today we have Engerland fans booing first their own team and then the Croatian national anthem. Compare and contrast...

    I do not think the two are at all comparable

    A player was gravely ill on the pitch in front of them and it unites everyone in a desperate situation
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited June 2021

    alex_ said:

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
    Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.

    Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
    Indeed. I said at the very beginning, when this was all going to shit, why keep supermarkets open? Force them to deliver. Pay them.

    But no. The science says that the virus cannot spread in Tesco’s.
    That was impossible. The home delivery infrastructure creaked, groaned and frequently crashed in the face of demand spiking from 10% to 15% of the market, or whatever it was - beyond which no more slots could be provided.

    The capacity to deliver the entire nation its shopping did not exist and could not have been created: no such thing was even attempted anywhere else in the world. So nearly all of us were forced to go and join the panic buying frenzy...
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    That and furlough, which could have been designed to make the whole country into a bunch of lazy welfare dependents. Sunak really should be sacked.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
    Apparently extending by two weeks will mean all over 50s and vulnerables will be double jabbed and also have the two weeks afterwards to get up to full speed.

    That might be good compromise position for Boris, but I suspect the zero covid types will be back for more as soon as that new date is in view.
    Yep. Just heard of a friend aged 55 only second jabbed today. We haven't completed the willing priority groups yet.
    Meanwhile outrage abounds that this government might choose the more popular option.
    Whoever would have thunk it?
    Yeah, my 55 Yr old brother had his second shot yesterday.

    But ultimately there needs to be a political decision on the economic vs health trade-off. Lots of businesses need a good summer season to stay solvent.
    The government will do what the polling tells them to. Clue?
    The somewhat garbled statement from the PM's spokesperson that they didn't agree with taking the knee, but were free to do so and shouldn't be booed.
    Next day polls show public don't want England to take the knee, but don't think they should be booed.
    Therefore. Public wants restrictions kept?
    Restrictions are kept.
    50% in the polls will arrive, I maintain.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,388
    edited June 2021

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    If it follows the pattern of other places then another week of steady increase followed by a slowing to a plateau.

    As to hospitalisations that depends on the number of anti-vaxxers.

    Brighton's vaccination numbers are only 61/40 but perhaps that is because of a younger population.

    I'd guess at less than 10% of the previous hospital numbers peak.
    Yes, I'm hoping you're right.

    I suspect Brighton's low vaccination numbers are more because of a) a mobile population, lots of students etc., b) quite a high proportion of green-type yoga-teacher hippy-dippy types who don't want to pollute their bodies with vaccines (but are quite happy to get Covid).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100

    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
    Apparently extending by two weeks will mean all over 50s and vulnerables will be double jabbed and also have the two weeks afterwards to get up to full speed.

    That might be good compromise position for Boris, but I suspect the zero covid types will be back for more as soon as that new date is in view.
    Yep. Just heard of a friend aged 55 only second jabbed today. We haven't completed the willing priority groups yet.
    Meanwhile outrage abounds that this government might choose the more popular option.
    Whoever would have thunk it?
    50,000 brides wave with tears welling up in their eyes.
    No weddings, but....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9681309/England-supporters-pack-fan-zones-pub-gardens-Euro-2020-campaign-starts.html
    No weddings ?????

    My sons was confirmed by his Church yesterday for the 31st July with 40 in the Church and 68 at the marquee

    And it has been delayed since August 2020.

    I also understand our own @HYUFD marries next weekend
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,761
    An indepth thread on what's called "pivot to elimination" strategy. Zero covid in other words.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403990026065793024
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Cookie said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
    Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1.
    I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse?
    Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.

    If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    Working from home appears to be quite popular with people working from home.

    Lots of people are saving a fortune on travel, F&B and childcare - they really don’t want to go back to getting the 06:35 to Waterloo.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
    Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.

    Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
    I think measures have to continue in hospitals, but NHS England have told us that already.
    In the event of common sense prevailing rather than model-driven panic, I would still have expected control measures to remain in healthcare settings, masks to continue on public transport, and perhaps the WFH advice to be left in place (although the evidence I see from my window of the train station car park suggests that quite a lot of businesses are taking a relaxed attitude to that already.) Leave residual control measures in place until it can be demonstrated that the thing has basically burned itself out.

    But the rest of the nonsense really ought to go; air bridges should be opened to other countries with similar levels of infection and vaccination coverage, when these data allow; and there should be statistical targets set for the removal of the residual control measures at home. Certainly if the third wave does, pray God, turn out to be a damp squib then (bearing in mind that the SPI-M modellers made a hash of their Spring forecasts as well) we really ought to chuck all their predictions in the dustbin.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited June 2021

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    If it follows the pattern of other places then another week of steady increase followed by a slowing to a plateau.

    As to hospitalisations that depends on the number of anti-vaxxers.

    Brighton's vaccination numbers are only 61/40 but perhaps that is because of a younger population.

    I'd guess at less than 10% of the previous hospital numbers peak.
    Delaying lifting lockdown due to antivaxxers is absolutely disgusting.

    They've made their choice, it should be respected.
    The last thing I would want anyone to do is keep lockdown for me. Let us all be free and take our chances.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    edited June 2021
    Sandpit said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    Working from home appears to be quite popular with people working from home.

    Lots of people are saving a fortune on travel, F&B and childcare - they really don’t want to go back to getting the 06:35 to Waterloo.
    Not just commuting. Partner's business used to rent workspace by the hour. Now we don't. £12 an hour pay rise equivalent.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    RobD said:

    So from what I have seen / read in Copenhagen yesterday we have the Danish and Finnish fans united chanting Christian Eriksen. And in London today we have Engerland fans booing first their own team and then the Croatian national anthem. Compare and contrast...

    They aren't exactly equivalent scenarios, are they?
    True. The Danish and Finnish fans aren't stuck with tossers in their midst. Booing the opposition national anthem is pathetic. Booing the team you are there to support at the start of the match? Who are these knuckle-dragging morons?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    An indepth thread on what's called "pivot to elimination" strategy. Zero covid in other words.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403990026065793024

    Fortunately the link won't work properly so I can't have my blood pressure raised by reading her nonsense.

    As I said the other day, if the Zero Covidiots are really determined to have their way then we should fly the lot of them to South Georgia, and let them build their disease free utopia there.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Cookie said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
    Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1.
    I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse?
    Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.

    If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
    I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,761
    Sandpit said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    Working from home appears to be quite popular with people working from home.

    Lots of people are saving a fortune on travel, F&B and childcare - they really don’t want to go back to getting the 06:35 to Waterloo.
    As the joke now goes, lockdown is where the middle class work safely from home while the working class deliver them food and drinks and takeaways.

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
    Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.

    Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
    I think measures have to continue in hospitals, but NHS England have told us that already.
    In the event of common sense prevailing rather than model-driven panic, I would still have expected control measures to remain in healthcare settings, masks to continue on public transport, and perhaps the WFH advice to be left in place (although the evidence I see from my window of the train station car park suggests that quite a lot of businesses are taking a relaxed attitude to that already.) Leave residual control measures in place until it can be demonstrated that the thing has basically burned itself out.

    But the rest of the nonsense really ought to go; air bridges should be opened to other countries with similar levels of infection and vaccination coverage, when these data allow; and there should be statistical targets set for the removal of the residual control measures at home. Certainly if the third wave does, pray God, turn out to be a damp squib then (bearing in mind that the SPI-M modellers made a hash of their Spring forecasts as well) we really ought to chuck all their predictions in the dustbin.
    The government is confident the backlash to their delay is essentially going to be meh?

    But here is the thing. Are they correct? how big will the 'backlash' be, if there is a backlash at all?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
    Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.

    Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
    I think measures have to continue in hospitals, but NHS England have told us that already.
    In the event of common sense prevailing rather than model-driven panic, I would still have expected control measures to remain in healthcare settings, masks to continue on public transport, and perhaps the WFH advice to be left in place (although the evidence I see from my window of the train station car park suggests that quite a lot of businesses are taking a relaxed attitude to that already.) Leave residual control measures in place until it can be demonstrated that the thing has basically burned itself out.

    But the rest of the nonsense really ought to go; air bridges should be opened to other countries with similar levels of infection and vaccination coverage, when these data allow; and there should be statistical targets set for the removal of the residual control measures at home. Certainly if the third wave does, pray God, turn out to be a damp squib then (bearing in mind that the SPI-M modellers made a hash of their Spring forecasts as well) we really ought to chuck all their predictions in the dustbin.
    The government is confident the backlash to their delay is essentially going to be meh?

    But here is the thing. Are they correct? how big will the 'backlash' be, if there is a backlash at all?
    There'll be a lot of distraught brides all over the TV if the wedding rules aren't relaxed, but more broadly the Government's core support is derived from old farts who approve of lockdowns, so they'll be fine.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100

    An indepth thread on what's called "pivot to elimination" strategy. Zero covid in other words.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403990026065793024

    Fortunately the link won't work properly so I can't have my blood pressure raised by reading her nonsense.

    As I said the other day, if the Zero Covidiots are really determined to have their way then we should fly the lot of them to South Georgia, and let them build their disease free utopia there.
    Why inflict them on beautiful South Georgia, better to put them in a box in cold storage
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
    Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1.
    I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse?
    Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.

    If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
    I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
    I do hope you're wrong about London, because there's the excuse for yet more stalling on a plate.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Sandpit said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    Working from home appears to be quite popular with people working from home.

    Lots of people are saving a fortune on travel, F&B and childcare - they really don’t want to go back to getting the 06:35 to Waterloo.
    As the joke now goes, lockdown is where the middle class work safely from home while the working class deliver them food and drinks and takeaways.

    That's not really a joke, it's the truth. I've seen companies start to clamp down on people "WFH" with kids.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Of course, he doesn’t need a week’s notice to remove restrictions from the position we’re in. He does however need a week (ideally more) before extending them.

    He could say he’s not opening up tomorrow, and pass legislation to that effect - remember, the law will need changing - and change what passes for his mind on Friday.
    Does legislation need passing? I thought it had already been passed granting an extension in laws until September?
    I’ve looked everywhere I can think of and I can’t find this amendment you’re talking about. There has been an amendment to Section 21 but AFAICS it hasn’t removed the expiry date. Do you have a link?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,612

    Sandpit said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    Working from home appears to be quite popular with people working from home.

    Lots of people are saving a fortune on travel, F&B and childcare - they really don’t want to go back to getting the 06:35 to Waterloo.
    As the joke now goes, lockdown is where the middle class work safely from home while the working class deliver them food and drinks and takeaways.

    And in some cases its where the middle classes 'work' safely from home.

    Personally I'm much happier going to my place of work as I know my work rate would crash at home.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Fishing said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    That and furlough, which could have been designed to make the whole country into a bunch of lazy welfare dependents. Sunak really should be sacked.
    Disagree. Yes, there's the concern that furlough is making it too comfortable for some people and encouraging them to back lockdowns, however...

    (1) A lot of furlough recipients will only be getting the 80%, not the top-up from their employer - and many if not most of them will ill be able to afford the reduction in income
    (2) A lot of furlough recipients will also want to go back to work anyway, for fear that they find they have no jobs to go back to
    (3) Furlough primarily covers sectors the viability of which have been wrecked by Government diktat, so Sunak is really only rescuing people who would otherwise be thrown on the scrapheap as a result of ministers' own orders
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Tsitsipas is still fighting, but Djokovic is a break up and nearing the winning post. 4-3, 40-0...
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
    Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.

    Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
    I think measures have to continue in hospitals, but NHS England have told us that already.
    In the event of common sense prevailing rather than model-driven panic, I would still have expected control measures to remain in healthcare settings, masks to continue on public transport, and perhaps the WFH advice to be left in place (although the evidence I see from my window of the train station car park suggests that quite a lot of businesses are taking a relaxed attitude to that already.) Leave residual control measures in place until it can be demonstrated that the thing has basically burned itself out.

    But the rest of the nonsense really ought to go; air bridges should be opened to other countries with similar levels of infection and vaccination coverage, when these data allow; and there should be statistical targets set for the removal of the residual control measures at home. Certainly if the third wave does, pray God, turn out to be a damp squib then (bearing in mind that the SPI-M modellers made a hash of their Spring forecasts as well) we really ought to chuck all their predictions in the dustbin.
    The government is confident the backlash to their delay is essentially going to be meh?

    But here is the thing. Are they correct? how big will the 'backlash' be, if there is a backlash at all?
    There'll be a lot of distraught brides all over the TV if the wedding rules aren't relaxed, but more broadly the Government's core support is derived from old farts who approve of lockdowns, so they'll be fine.
    Fair enough BR, but labour's stance is interesting. One thing young people love to do is travel, and today Thornberry ruled it out for.....well....ever.

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    An indepth thread on what's called "pivot to elimination" strategy. Zero covid in other words.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403990026065793024

    Fortunately the link won't work properly so I can't have my blood pressure raised by reading her nonsense.

    As I said the other day, if the Zero Covidiots are really determined to have their way then we should fly the lot of them to South Georgia, and let them build their disease free utopia there.
    Why inflict them on beautiful South Georgia, better to put them in a box in cold storage
    It's very remote and very empty. Though if you insist I suppose we could ship them off to one of the South Sandwich Islands instead?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Fishing said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    That and furlough, which could have been designed to make the whole country into a bunch of lazy welfare dependents. Sunak really should be sacked.
    Disagree. Yes, there's the concern that furlough is making it too comfortable for some people and encouraging them to back lockdowns, however...

    (1) A lot of furlough recipients will only be getting the 80%, not the top-up from their employer - and many if not most of them will ill be able to afford the reduction in income
    (2) A lot of furlough recipients will also want to go back to work anyway, for fear that they find they have no jobs to go back to
    (3) Furlough primarily covers sectors the viability of which have been wrecked by Government diktat, so Sunak is really only rescuing people who would otherwise be thrown on the scrapheap as a result of ministers' own orders
    Are furlough payments inflation linked? because if they aren't, those left on furlough are going to start to feel the pinch quite soon.

    Living costs are definitely rising.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    An indepth thread on what's called "pivot to elimination" strategy. Zero covid in other words.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403990026065793024

    Fortunately the link won't work properly so I can't have my blood pressure raised by reading her nonsense.

    As I said the other day, if the Zero Covidiots are really determined to have their way then we should fly the lot of them to South Georgia, and let them build their disease free utopia there.
    Why inflict them on beautiful South Georgia, better to put them in a box in cold storage
    It's very remote and very empty. Though if you insist I suppose we could ship them off to one of the South Sandwich Islands instead?
    Would we need to butter them up first?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    An indepth thread on what's called "pivot to elimination" strategy. Zero covid in other words.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403990026065793024

    Fortunately the link won't work properly so I can't have my blood pressure raised by reading her nonsense.

    As I said the other day, if the Zero Covidiots are really determined to have their way then we should fly the lot of them to South Georgia, and let them build their disease free utopia there.
    Why inflict them on beautiful South Georgia, better to put them in a box in cold storage
    With Boris Johnson, or would he pass on this occasion?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100

    An indepth thread on what's called "pivot to elimination" strategy. Zero covid in other words.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403990026065793024

    Fortunately the link won't work properly so I can't have my blood pressure raised by reading her nonsense.

    As I said the other day, if the Zero Covidiots are really determined to have their way then we should fly the lot of them to South Georgia, and let them build their disease free utopia there.
    Why inflict them on beautiful South Georgia, better to put them in a box in cold storage
    It's very remote and very empty. Though if you insist I suppose we could ship them off to one of the South Sandwich Islands instead?
    I have been to South Georgia and it is spectacular and beautiful, far too nice for zero covid obsessives
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
    Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.

    Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
    I think measures have to continue in hospitals, but NHS England have told us that already.
    In the event of common sense prevailing rather than model-driven panic, I would still have expected control measures to remain in healthcare settings, masks to continue on public transport, and perhaps the WFH advice to be left in place (although the evidence I see from my window of the train station car park suggests that quite a lot of businesses are taking a relaxed attitude to that already.) Leave residual control measures in place until it can be demonstrated that the thing has basically burned itself out.

    But the rest of the nonsense really ought to go; air bridges should be opened to other countries with similar levels of infection and vaccination coverage, when these data allow; and there should be statistical targets set for the removal of the residual control measures at home. Certainly if the third wave does, pray God, turn out to be a damp squib then (bearing in mind that the SPI-M modellers made a hash of their Spring forecasts as well) we really ought to chuck all their predictions in the dustbin.
    The government is confident the backlash to their delay is essentially going to be meh?

    But here is the thing. Are they correct? how big will the 'backlash' be, if there is a backlash at all?
    There'll be a lot of distraught brides all over the TV if the wedding rules aren't relaxed, but more broadly the Government's core support is derived from old farts who approve of lockdowns, so they'll be fine.
    Fair enough BR, but labour's stance is interesting. One thing young people love to do is travel, and today Thornberry ruled it out for.....well....ever.

    The young have been disregarded for so very, very long through all of this that I doubt any of them will have noticed one more slap in the face.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Fishing said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    That and furlough, which could have been designed to make the whole country into a bunch of lazy welfare dependents. Sunak really should be sacked.
    Disagree. Yes, there's the concern that furlough is making it too comfortable for some people and encouraging them to back lockdowns, however...

    (1) A lot of furlough recipients will only be getting the 80%, not the top-up from their employer - and many if not most of them will ill be able to afford the reduction in income
    (2) A lot of furlough recipients will also want to go back to work anyway, for fear that they find they have no jobs to go back to
    (3) Furlough primarily covers sectors the viability of which have been wrecked by Government diktat, so Sunak is really only rescuing people who would otherwise be thrown on the scrapheap as a result of ministers' own orders
    I think from July furlough should be limited to sectors that are being kept closed like tourism and air travel. Places that can open fully without reactions should no longer be eligible.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    ydoethur said:

    An indepth thread on what's called "pivot to elimination" strategy. Zero covid in other words.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403990026065793024

    Fortunately the link won't work properly so I can't have my blood pressure raised by reading her nonsense.

    As I said the other day, if the Zero Covidiots are really determined to have their way then we should fly the lot of them to South Georgia, and let them build their disease free utopia there.
    Why inflict them on beautiful South Georgia, better to put them in a box in cold storage
    With Boris Johnson, or would he pass on this occasion?
    Even Boris is not a zero covid fanatic
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Of course, he doesn’t need a week’s notice to remove restrictions from the position we’re in. He does however need a week (ideally more) before extending them.

    He could say he’s not opening up tomorrow, and pass legislation to that effect - remember, the law will need changing - and change what passes for his mind on Friday.
    Does legislation need passing? I thought it had already been passed granting an extension in laws until September?
    I’ve looked everywhere I can think of and I can’t find this amendment you’re talking about. There has been an amendment to Section 21 but AFAICS it hasn’t removed the expiry date. Do you have a link?
    I did read somewhere(on here?) that they needed legislation to extend past June 30th. Which is odd because I thought they had extended to end of September. Maybe it’s just that they still need a confirmatory vote.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    That and furlough, which could have been designed to make the whole country into a bunch of lazy welfare dependents. Sunak really should be sacked.
    Disagree. Yes, there's the concern that furlough is making it too comfortable for some people and encouraging them to back lockdowns, however...

    (1) A lot of furlough recipients will only be getting the 80%, not the top-up from their employer - and many if not most of them will ill be able to afford the reduction in income
    (2) A lot of furlough recipients will also want to go back to work anyway, for fear that they find they have no jobs to go back to
    (3) Furlough primarily covers sectors the viability of which have been wrecked by Government diktat, so Sunak is really only rescuing people who would otherwise be thrown on the scrapheap as a result of ministers' own orders
    I think from July furlough should be limited to sectors that are being kept closed like tourism and air travel. Places that can open fully without reactions should no longer be eligible.
    If furlough payments are not index linked, then surely wage rises and cost of living increases will surely gradually erode the economic viability of them anyway?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,793

    ydoethur said:

    An indepth thread on what's called "pivot to elimination" strategy. Zero covid in other words.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403990026065793024

    Fortunately the link won't work properly so I can't have my blood pressure raised by reading her nonsense.

    As I said the other day, if the Zero Covidiots are really determined to have their way then we should fly the lot of them to South Georgia, and let them build their disease free utopia there.
    Why inflict them on beautiful South Georgia, better to put them in a box in cold storage
    With Boris Johnson, or would he pass on this occasion?
    Even Boris is not a zero covid fanatic
    Boris Johnson is fanatical only about Boris Johnson.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    That and furlough, which could have been designed to make the whole country into a bunch of lazy welfare dependents. Sunak really should be sacked.
    Disagree. Yes, there's the concern that furlough is making it too comfortable for some people and encouraging them to back lockdowns, however...

    (1) A lot of furlough recipients will only be getting the 80%, not the top-up from their employer - and many if not most of them will ill be able to afford the reduction in income
    (2) A lot of furlough recipients will also want to go back to work anyway, for fear that they find they have no jobs to go back to
    (3) Furlough primarily covers sectors the viability of which have been wrecked by Government diktat, so Sunak is really only rescuing people who would otherwise be thrown on the scrapheap as a result of ministers' own orders
    I think from July furlough should be limited to sectors that are being kept closed like tourism and air travel. Places that can open fully without reactions should no longer be eligible.
    If furlough payments are not index linked, then surely wage rises and cost of living increases will surely gradually erode the economic viability of them anyway?
    Only if this goes on for a long time.

    Again, we are reliant on the Government not messing its kecks and allowing widespread restrictions to drag on right through the Winter.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    No doubt Sunak is a little annoyed. No pun on little!

    I was surprised at how short Starmer is.

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Of course, he doesn’t need a week’s notice to remove restrictions from the position we’re in. He does however need a week (ideally more) before extending them.

    He could say he’s not opening up tomorrow, and pass legislation to that effect - remember, the law will need changing - and change what passes for his mind on Friday.
    Does legislation need passing? I thought it had already been passed granting an extension in laws until September?
    I’ve looked everywhere I can think of and I can’t find this amendment you’re talking about. There has been an amendment to Section 21 but AFAICS it hasn’t removed the expiry date. Do you have a link?
    I did read somewhere(on here?) that they needed legislation to extend past June 30th. Which is odd because I thought they had extended to end of September. Maybe it’s just that they still need a confirmatory vote.
    Theresa May leading the rebels?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    That and furlough, which could have been designed to make the whole country into a bunch of lazy welfare dependents. Sunak really should be sacked.
    Disagree. Yes, there's the concern that furlough is making it too comfortable for some people and encouraging them to back lockdowns, however...

    (1) A lot of furlough recipients will only be getting the 80%, not the top-up from their employer - and many if not most of them will ill be able to afford the reduction in income
    (2) A lot of furlough recipients will also want to go back to work anyway, for fear that they find they have no jobs to go back to
    (3) Furlough primarily covers sectors the viability of which have been wrecked by Government diktat, so Sunak is really only rescuing people who would otherwise be thrown on the scrapheap as a result of ministers' own orders
    I think from July furlough should be limited to sectors that are being kept closed like tourism and air travel. Places that can open fully without reactions should no longer be eligible.
    Could that not be seen as illegal state aid, if restricted to certain sectors that compete internationally?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
    Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.

    Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
    I think measures have to continue in hospitals, but NHS England have told us that already.
    In the event of common sense prevailing rather than model-driven panic, I would still have expected control measures to remain in healthcare settings, masks to continue on public transport, and perhaps the WFH advice to be left in place (although the evidence I see from my window of the train station car park suggests that quite a lot of businesses are taking a relaxed attitude to that already.) Leave residual control measures in place until it can be demonstrated that the thing has basically burned itself out.

    But the rest of the nonsense really ought to go; air bridges should be opened to other countries with similar levels of infection and vaccination coverage, when these data allow; and there should be statistical targets set for the removal of the residual control measures at home. Certainly if the third wave does, pray God, turn out to be a damp squib then (bearing in mind that the SPI-M modellers made a hash of their Spring forecasts as well) we really ought to chuck all their predictions in the dustbin.
    The government is confident the backlash to their delay is essentially going to be meh?

    But here is the thing. Are they correct? how big will the 'backlash' be, if there is a backlash at all?
    There'll be a lot of distraught brides all over the TV if the wedding rules aren't relaxed, but more broadly the Government's core support is derived from old farts who approve of lockdowns, so they'll be fine.
    Fair enough BR, but labour's stance is interesting. One thing young people love to do is travel, and today Thornberry ruled it out for.....well....ever.

    The young have been disregarded for so very, very long through all of this that I doubt any of them will have noticed one more slap in the face.
    So Labour are now more anti free movement than the Tories?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Tsitsipas is fighting to the very last here.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    Djokovic wins
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870
    Djokovic wins the French Open and his 19th Grand Slam, defeating Tsitsipas in 5 sets.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Tsitsipas is fighting to the very last here.

    And it's done. Djokovic wins the final set 6-4.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    edited June 2021

    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Of course, he doesn’t need a week’s notice to remove restrictions from the position we’re in. He does however need a week (ideally more) before extending them.

    He could say he’s not opening up tomorrow, and pass legislation to that effect - remember, the law will need changing - and change what passes for his mind on Friday.
    Does legislation need passing? I thought it had already been passed granting an extension in laws until September?
    I’ve looked everywhere I can think of and I can’t find this amendment you’re talking about. There has been an amendment to Section 21 but AFAICS it hasn’t removed the expiry date. Do you have a link?
    I did read somewhere(on here?) that they needed legislation to extend past June 30th. Which is odd because I thought they had extended to end of September. Maybe it’s just that they still need a confirmatory vote.
    Theresa May leading the rebels?
    If we had a functioning Opposition, needing permission from Parliament to extend the restrictions might have the potential to cause the government a problem with rebels.

    But we have SKS, instead of a functioning Opposition.

    (Personally I’d let the law expire, and replace it with guidance).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    That and furlough, which could have been designed to make the whole country into a bunch of lazy welfare dependents. Sunak really should be sacked.
    Disagree. Yes, there's the concern that furlough is making it too comfortable for some people and encouraging them to back lockdowns, however...

    (1) A lot of furlough recipients will only be getting the 80%, not the top-up from their employer - and many if not most of them will ill be able to afford the reduction in income
    (2) A lot of furlough recipients will also want to go back to work anyway, for fear that they find they have no jobs to go back to
    (3) Furlough primarily covers sectors the viability of which have been wrecked by Government diktat, so Sunak is really only rescuing people who would otherwise be thrown on the scrapheap as a result of ministers' own orders
    I think from July furlough should be limited to sectors that are being kept closed like tourism and air travel. Places that can open fully without reactions should no longer be eligible.
    Could that not be seen as illegal state aid, if restricted to certain sectors that compete internationally?
    Not in the EU so it's not really a huge problem now. What are they going to do? Take us to the ECJ? Lol.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    An indepth thread on what's called "pivot to elimination" strategy. Zero covid in other words.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403990026065793024

    Fortunately the link won't work properly so I can't have my blood pressure raised by reading her nonsense.

    As I said the other day, if the Zero Covidiots are really determined to have their way then we should fly the lot of them to South Georgia, and let them build their disease free utopia there.
    Why inflict them on beautiful South Georgia, better to put them in a box in cold storage
    With Boris Johnson, or would he pass on this occasion?
    Even Boris is not a zero covid fanatic
    No, but he does like hiding in cold storage units :wink:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    No long covid for Djokovic :D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100

    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    That and furlough, which could have been designed to make the whole country into a bunch of lazy welfare dependents. Sunak really should be sacked.
    Disagree. Yes, there's the concern that furlough is making it too comfortable for some people and encouraging them to back lockdowns, however...

    (1) A lot of furlough recipients will only be getting the 80%, not the top-up from their employer - and many if not most of them will ill be able to afford the reduction in income
    (2) A lot of furlough recipients will also want to go back to work anyway, for fear that they find they have no jobs to go back to
    (3) Furlough primarily covers sectors the viability of which have been wrecked by Government diktat, so Sunak is really only rescuing people who would otherwise be thrown on the scrapheap as a result of ministers' own orders
    I think from July furlough should be limited to sectors that are being kept closed like tourism and air travel. Places that can open fully without reactions should no longer be eligible.
    If furlough payments are not index linked, then surely wage rises and cost of living increases will surely gradually erode the economic viability of them anyway?
    We do not want them that long !!!!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Djokovic wins the French Open and his 19th Grand Slam, defeating Tsitsipas in 5 sets.

    He's bagged Australia, France, and will go into Wimbledon as the defending champion.

    The Grand Slam attempt is on.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    Tsitsipas is fighting to the very last here.

    And it's done. Djokovic wins the final set 6-4.
    The guy is truly remarkable.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,889
    Late afternoon all :)

    Mrs Stodge and I have had our first BBQ of the summer - very pleasant.

    I mentioned this yesterday - very long queues at the local Leisure Centre:

    https://www.newham.gov.uk/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-19-vaccination/12

    Next weekend, an even bigger event planned for Stratford:

    https://www.newham.gov.uk/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-19-vaccination/13

    Anyone 25+ in NE London who wants a first vaccination can book up for this - it'll be interesting to see if this feeds through into the national figures. Long overdue of course.

    Mrs Stodge is worried having seen this:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9681613/Study-shows-29-people-died-catching-new-strain-vaccinations.html

    If I were being a bluff old cynic or a little contrarian perhaps, I'd suggest a story like this has been "planted" to terrify the doubly vaccinated into supporting an extension of restrictionss.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870

    Djokovic wins the French Open and his 19th Grand Slam, defeating Tsitsipas in 5 sets.

    He's bagged Australia, France, and will go into Wimbledon as the defending champion.

    The Grand Slam attempt is on.
    Wimbledon's going ahead? Cool!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Re: WFH. Never going to happen but one imaginative move that the Govt could do (reversing the vaccine passports argument on its head) is to withdraw the WfH guidance for people double vaxxed...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    ydoethur said:

    An indepth thread on what's called "pivot to elimination" strategy. Zero covid in other words.

    https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403990026065793024

    Fortunately the link won't work properly so I can't have my blood pressure raised by reading her nonsense.

    As I said the other day, if the Zero Covidiots are really determined to have their way then we should fly the lot of them to South Georgia, and let them build their disease free utopia there.
    Why inflict them on beautiful South Georgia, better to put them in a box in cold storage
    With Boris Johnson, or would he pass on this occasion?
    Even Boris is not a zero covid fanatic
    Boris Johnson is fanatical only about Boris Johnson.
    Yes that's the topic to which he brings real passion and expertise.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Djokovic wins the French Open and his 19th Grand Slam, defeating Tsitsipas in 5 sets.

    He's bagged Australia, France, and will go into Wimbledon as the defending champion.

    The Grand Slam attempt is on.
    Wimbledon's going ahead? Cool!
    Yep, it's all systems go this time. There will be a crowd, not sure as to capacity though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595

    Djokovic wins the French Open and his 19th Grand Slam, defeating Tsitsipas in 5 sets.

    He's bagged Australia, France, and will go into Wimbledon as the defending champion.

    The Grand Slam attempt is on.
    Wimbledon's going ahead? Cool!
    The tournament is definitely going ahead.

    The unknown is the capacity for spectators.

    https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/about_wimbledon/the_championships_2021_latest_update.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited June 2021
    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Of course, he doesn’t need a week’s notice to remove restrictions from the position we’re in. He does however need a week (ideally more) before extending them.

    He could say he’s not opening up tomorrow, and pass legislation to that effect - remember, the law will need changing - and change what passes for his mind on Friday.
    Does legislation need passing? I thought it had already been passed granting an extension in laws until September?
    I’ve looked everywhere I can think of and I can’t find this amendment you’re talking about. There has been an amendment to Section 21 but AFAICS it hasn’t removed the expiry date. Do you have a link?
    I did read somewhere(on here?) that they needed legislation to extend past June 30th. Which is odd because I thought they had extended to end of September. Maybe it’s just that they still need a confirmatory vote.
    I think I’ve traced the confusion. What has been extended is the original Coronavirus Act of 2020, which granted the government emergency powers during the pandemic and included things like furlough. (As Cyclefree pointed out at the time, this could have been done under the Civil Contingencies Act, so it was a bloody fool law.) This has a two year sunset clause but is also subject to parliamentary review at six monthly intervals, most recently March 2020 when it was agreed not to short-terminate it.

    The separate statutory instrument from March this year - The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Steps) (England) Regulations 2021, to give it its full title - deals with the stages of easing lockdown, and still expires on the 30th June.

    Which means, unless it is amended, we’re going to have either unlock, or utter fucking chaos on the 1st July as all current restrictions and guidelines are issued under the statutory instrument, not the Coronavirus Act.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052

    Fishing said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    That and furlough, which could have been designed to make the whole country into a bunch of lazy welfare dependents. Sunak really should be sacked.
    Disagree. Yes, there's the concern that furlough is making it too comfortable for some people and encouraging them to back lockdowns, however...

    (1) A lot of furlough recipients will only be getting the 80%, not the top-up from their employer - and many if not most of them will ill be able to afford the reduction in income
    (2) A lot of furlough recipients will also want to go back to work anyway, for fear that they find they have no jobs to go back to
    (3) Furlough primarily covers sectors the viability of which have been wrecked by Government diktat, so Sunak is really only rescuing people who would otherwise be thrown on the scrapheap as a result of ministers' own orders
    Yes, although they're also not commuting or paying for suits to be drycleaned or whatever so many of them may come out ahead.

    Furlough also doesn't cover people with no employment history - particularly those just graduated - or many of the self-employed, such as directors of their own companies, who really have been thrown on the scrapheap. I'm amazed that there isn't more of a stink about that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    kinabalu said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
    Apparently extending by two weeks will mean all over 50s and vulnerables will be double jabbed and also have the two weeks afterwards to get up to full speed.

    That might be good compromise position for Boris, but I suspect the zero covid types will be back for more as soon as that new date is in view.
    I think not. I really do think it's just a final short delay. But I was wrong about there being any delay so I won't bang on about it. Let's just see.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    BBC News bulletin headline is that we won a football match. Is it really the biggest story of the day?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Of course, he doesn’t need a week’s notice to remove restrictions from the position we’re in. He does however need a week (ideally more) before extending them.

    He could say he’s not opening up tomorrow, and pass legislation to that effect - remember, the law will need changing - and change what passes for his mind on Friday.
    Does legislation need passing? I thought it had already been passed granting an extension in laws until September?
    I’ve looked everywhere I can think of and I can’t find this amendment you’re talking about. There has been an amendment to Section 21 but AFAICS it hasn’t removed the expiry date. Do you have a link?
    I did read somewhere(on here?) that they needed legislation to extend past June 30th. Which is odd because I thought they had extended to end of September. Maybe it’s just that they still need a confirmatory vote.
    I think I’ve traced the confusion. What has been extended is the original Coronavirus Act of 2020, which granted the government emergency powers during the pandemic and included things like furlough. (As Cyclefree pointed out at the time, this could have been done under the Civil Contingencies Act, so it was a bloody fool law.)

    The separate statutory instrument from March this year - The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Steps) (England) Regulations 2021, to give it its full title - deals with the stages of easing lockdown, and still expires on the 30th June.

    Which means, unless it is amended, we’re going to have either unlock, or utter fucking chaos on the 1st July as all current restrictions and guidelines are issued under the statutory instrument, not the Coronavirus Act.
    It would be nice if the Government simply forgot to extend, but I'm sure that not even they could commit a howler on that scale. I'm assuming that, as secondary legislation, all it will require is a ministerial signature on a piece of paper.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,983
    tlg86 said:

    BBC News bulletin headline is that we won a football match. Is it really the biggest story of the day?

    Not a big follower of English football then I see.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Of course, he doesn’t need a week’s notice to remove restrictions from the position we’re in. He does however need a week (ideally more) before extending them.

    He could say he’s not opening up tomorrow, and pass legislation to that effect - remember, the law will need changing - and change what passes for his mind on Friday.
    Does legislation need passing? I thought it had already been passed granting an extension in laws until September?
    I’ve looked everywhere I can think of and I can’t find this amendment you’re talking about. There has been an amendment to Section 21 but AFAICS it hasn’t removed the expiry date. Do you have a link?
    I did read somewhere(on here?) that they needed legislation to extend past June 30th. Which is odd because I thought they had extended to end of September. Maybe it’s just that they still need a confirmatory vote.
    I think I’ve traced the confusion. What has been extended is the original Coronavirus Act of 2020, which granted the government emergency powers during the pandemic and included things like furlough. (As Cyclefree pointed out at the time, this could have been done under the Civil Contingencies Act, so it was a bloody fool law.) This has a two year sunset clause but is also subject to parliamentary review at six monthly intervals, most recently March 2020 when it was agreed not to short-terminate it.

    The separate statutory instrument from March this year - The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Steps) (England) Regulations 2021, to give it its full title - deals with the stages of easing lockdown, and still expires on the 30th June.

    Which means, unless it is amended, we’re going to have either unlock, or utter fucking chaos on the 1st July as all current restrictions and guidelines are issued under the statutory instrument, not the Coronavirus Act.
    I thought the reason they didn’t use the Civil Contingencies Act because (being a piece of legislation that had gone through proper Parliamentary scrutiny - even if under Blair’s massive majority), it contained all sorts of awkward safeguards like, for example, ongoing and regular parliamentary scrutiny...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    tlg86 said:

    BBC News bulletin headline is that we won a football match. Is it really the biggest story of the day?

    On the one hand, cue avalanche of moaning emails from viewers outside of England. And a fair few inside England who are bored rigid by football.

    On the other, it makes a welcome change from death and misery.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Anyone who thinks the zerocovidians will pipe down permanently if offered a fortnight delay will have, according to official Met Office verification, come down in the last shower.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,793
    tlg86 said:

    BBC News bulletin headline is that we won a football match. Is it really the biggest story of the day?

    It's the first time that England has won its opening match in the Euros, apparently.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    alex_ said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
    Yes, the biggest lesson I've taken from the last year is that most people in this country will trade all their freedom for a tiny bit of extra safety without any hesitation.

    That and the cult of our mediocre health service is truly everywhere.
    Working from Home. I remain convinced that that is what is behind a significant part of the polling.
    That and furlough, which could have been designed to make the whole country into a bunch of lazy welfare dependents. Sunak really should be sacked.
    Disagree. Yes, there's the concern that furlough is making it too comfortable for some people and encouraging them to back lockdowns, however...

    (1) A lot of furlough recipients will only be getting the 80%, not the top-up from their employer - and many if not most of them will ill be able to afford the reduction in income
    (2) A lot of furlough recipients will also want to go back to work anyway, for fear that they find they have no jobs to go back to
    (3) Furlough primarily covers sectors the viability of which have been wrecked by Government diktat, so Sunak is really only rescuing people who would otherwise be thrown on the scrapheap as a result of ministers' own orders
    Yes, although they're also not commuting or paying for suits to be drycleaned or whatever so many of them may come out ahead.

    Furlough also doesn't cover people with no employment history - particularly those just graduated - or many of the self-employed, such as directors of their own companies, who really have been thrown on the scrapheap. I'm amazed that there isn't more of a stink about that.
    There have been a lot of complaints about the treatment of the self-employed but alas, poor buggers, they've largely been drowned out by lockdowns, death tsunamis and the vaccination project.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    tlg86 said:

    BBC News bulletin headline is that we won a football match. Is it really the biggest story of the day?

    Wonder what story will lead GB News?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Of course, he doesn’t need a week’s notice to remove restrictions from the position we’re in. He does however need a week (ideally more) before extending them.

    He could say he’s not opening up tomorrow, and pass legislation to that effect - remember, the law will need changing - and change what passes for his mind on Friday.
    Does legislation need passing? I thought it had already been passed granting an extension in laws until September?
    I’ve looked everywhere I can think of and I can’t find this amendment you’re talking about. There has been an amendment to Section 21 but AFAICS it hasn’t removed the expiry date. Do you have a link?
    I did read somewhere(on here?) that they needed legislation to extend past June 30th. Which is odd because I thought they had extended to end of September. Maybe it’s just that they still need a confirmatory vote.
    I think I’ve traced the confusion. What has been extended is the original Coronavirus Act of 2020, which granted the government emergency powers during the pandemic and included things like furlough. (As Cyclefree pointed out at the time, this could have been done under the Civil Contingencies Act, so it was a bloody fool law.) This has a two year sunset clause but is also subject to parliamentary review at six monthly intervals, most recently March 2020 when it was agreed not to short-terminate it.

    The separate statutory instrument from March this year - The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Steps) (England) Regulations 2021, to give it its full title - deals with the stages of easing lockdown, and still expires on the 30th June.

    Which means, unless it is amended, we’re going to have either unlock, or utter fucking chaos on the 1st July as all current restrictions and guidelines are issued under the statutory instrument, not the Coronavirus Act.
    I thought the reason they didn’t use the Civil Contingencies Act because (being a piece of legislation that had gone through proper Parliamentary scrutiny - even if under Blair’s massive majority), it contained all sorts of awkward safeguards like, for example, ongoing and regular parliamentary scrutiny...
    Yes, that was my understanding too, but then does so the Coronavirus Act.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770

    tlg86 said:

    BBC News bulletin headline is that we won a football match. Is it really the biggest story of the day?

    It's the first time that England has won its opening match in the Euros, apparently.
    No doubt we'll have it broadcast for the next 50 years. Paired with all the 1966 stuff that seems so fresh.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Of course, he doesn’t need a week’s notice to remove restrictions from the position we’re in. He does however need a week (ideally more) before extending them.

    He could say he’s not opening up tomorrow, and pass legislation to that effect - remember, the law will need changing - and change what passes for his mind on Friday.
    Does legislation need passing? I thought it had already been passed granting an extension in laws until September?
    I’ve looked everywhere I can think of and I can’t find this amendment you’re talking about. There has been an amendment to Section 21 but AFAICS it hasn’t removed the expiry date. Do you have a link?
    I did read somewhere(on here?) that they needed legislation to extend past June 30th. Which is odd because I thought they had extended to end of September. Maybe it’s just that they still need a confirmatory vote.
    I think I’ve traced the confusion. What has been extended is the original Coronavirus Act of 2020, which granted the government emergency powers during the pandemic and included things like furlough. (As Cyclefree pointed out at the time, this could have been done under the Civil Contingencies Act, so it was a bloody fool law.)

    The separate statutory instrument from March this year - The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Steps) (England) Regulations 2021, to give it its full title - deals with the stages of easing lockdown, and still expires on the 30th June.

    Which means, unless it is amended, we’re going to have either unlock, or utter fucking chaos on the 1st July as all current restrictions and guidelines are issued under the statutory instrument, not the Coronavirus Act.
    It would be nice if the Government simply forgot to extend, but I'm sure that not even they could commit a howler on that scale. I'm assuming that, as secondary legislation, all it will require is a ministerial signature on a piece of paper.
    It would need to be laid as an Affirmative Instrument due to the timescales, so it would require at least a committee vote.

    Equally, as you say I can’t imagine it would be voted down.

    Would be funny as well as extremely helpful if they forgot to lay it though...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,707

    tlg86 said:

    BBC News bulletin headline is that we won a football match. Is it really the biggest story of the day?

    It's the first time that England has won its opening match in the Euros, apparently.
    And against the team that knocked us out of the World Cup.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Genius goal by Austria


    Er. he seems quite angry?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
    Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1.
    I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse?
    Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.

    If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
    I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
    My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
    Good news! If that’s widespread, then this will be a very minor wave compared to the disasters in September and December.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    ping said:

    I’ve had a punt on austria @1.8

    Decent bet, that

    3-1
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Leon said:

    Genius goal by Austria


    Er. he seems quite angry?

    He's a knobhead.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    If cases are falling we really don't have a problem. But to be honest it looks more like a weekend effect.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
    Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1.
    I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse?
    Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.

    If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
    I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
    My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
    I've heard the same from my cousin who works in A&E in a central London hospital. The vast majority of hospitalisations are people who are eligible but are not vaccinated. He said that there's a few who are single jabbed waiting for their second one but almost all of them are people who didn't take it by choice. He also added that most of them are idiots who think they still made the right decision by rejecting it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    tlg86 said:

    Leon said:

    Genius goal by Austria


    Er. he seems quite angry?

    He's a knobhead.
    What's the backstory? Hates fans? Hates Macedonia? Hates a quiet celebration?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
    Apparently extending by two weeks will mean all over 50s and vulnerables will be double jabbed and also have the two weeks afterwards to get up to full speed.

    That might be good compromise position for Boris, but I suspect the zero covid types will be back for more as soon as that new date is in view.
    I think not. I really do think it's just a final short delay. But I was wrong about there being any delay so I won't bang on about it. Let's just see.
    I think it will be 4 weeks. But I am not always right. Let's see
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
    Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1.
    I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse?
    Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.

    If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
    I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
    My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
    Good news! If that’s widespread, then this will be a very minor wave compared to the disasters in September and December.
    We'll still need some luck to avoid further stalling next month though.

    So long as the cases are still climbing - and especially if London happens to be having a bit of a torrid time when the next point of decision approaches - then the modellers with their random number generators and the ISAGE mob will still be on manoeuvres, insisting that the massacre may not have happened yet but it's coming if we don't do exactly what they want.

    If the hospitals aren't under significant pressure by that point then I expect their eternal restriction arguments will pivot towards the danger of high caseloads begetting more variants, Long Covid in the young, and treatment backlogs.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    I misread a post here the other day - it was actually about cricket - but it got my head in 'all the England results from the 1960s onwards'.

    So here are, England football decades ranked by ...

    Most games won
    2010s - 71
    2000s - 70
    1960s - 61
    1980s - 59
    1970s - 56
    1990s - 54

    Highest win %
    1960s - 61%
    2010s - 59.2%
    2000s - 58.3%
    1970s - 56%
    1980s - 51.3%
    1990s - 50 %

    Lowest loss %
    1990s - 15.7%
    2010s - 15.8%
    1960s - 16%
    1970s -17%
    2000s - 19.2%
    1980s - 20.7%

    PPG assuming 3 pts a win
    2010s - 2.03
    1960s - 1.99
    2000s - 1.98
    1970s - 1.95
    1990s - 1.84
    1980s - 1.82

    Vague conclusions
    There ain't that much difference between the decades (0.2 ppg is 1 potentially lost game drawn every 5).

    I have fond memories of the 1990s. This may actually be fond memories of 1990 and 1996 and following.

    The 2010s were surprisingly solid.

    The difference between a good England side and a (supposedly) bad one comes in the crunch games.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
    Apparently extending by two weeks will mean all over 50s and vulnerables will be double jabbed and also have the two weeks afterwards to get up to full speed.

    That might be good compromise position for Boris, but I suspect the zero covid types will be back for more as soon as that new date is in view.
    I think not. I really do think it's just a final short delay. But I was wrong about there being any delay so I won't bang on about it. Let's just see.
    I think it will be 4 weeks. But I am not always right. Let's see
    Yes, you were completely wrong about the 12 April outdoor pub unlocking, despite your confidence at the time.

    So hope does indeed spring eternal.
  • citycentrecitycentre Posts: 90

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
    Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.

    Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
    I think measures have to continue in hospitals, but NHS England have told us that already.
    In the event of common sense prevailing rather than model-driven panic, I would still have expected control measures to remain in healthcare settings, masks to continue on public transport, and perhaps the WFH advice to be left in place (although the evidence I see from my window of the train station car park suggests that quite a lot of businesses are taking a relaxed attitude to that already.) Leave residual control measures in place until it can be demonstrated that the thing has basically burned itself out.

    But the rest of the nonsense really ought to go; air bridges should be opened to other countries with similar levels of infection and vaccination coverage, when these data allow; and there should be statistical targets set for the removal of the residual control measures at home. Certainly if the third wave does, pray God, turn out to be a damp squib then (bearing in mind that the SPI-M modellers made a hash of their Spring forecasts as well) we really ought to chuck all their predictions in the dustbin.
    The government is confident the backlash to their delay is essentially going to be meh?

    But here is the thing. Are they correct? how big will the 'backlash' be, if there is a backlash at all?
    There'll be a lot of distraught brides all over the TV if the wedding rules aren't relaxed, but more broadly the Government's core support is derived from old farts who approve of lockdowns, so they'll be fine.
    Fair enough BR, but labour's stance is interesting. One thing young people love to do is travel, and today Thornberry ruled it out for.....well....ever.

    Yes the govt has no fear. Pensioners will always support lockdowns to feel safe
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
    Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1.
    I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse?
    Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.

    If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
    I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
    My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
    Good news! If that’s widespread, then this will be a very minor wave compared to the disasters in September and December.
    We'll still need some luck to avoid further stalling next month though.

    So long as the cases are still climbing - and especially if London happens to be having a bit of a torrid time when the next point of decision approaches - then the modellers with their random number generators and the ISAGE mob will still be on manoeuvres, insisting that the massacre may not have happened yet but it's coming if we don't do exactly what they want.

    If the hospitals aren't under significant pressure by that point then I expect their eternal restriction arguments will pivot towards the danger of high caseloads begetting more variants, Long Covid in the young, and treatment backlogs.
    Reasons for preventing unlocking at any stage can and will be found.
This discussion has been closed.