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Rishi Sunak looks like a homunculus. This may stymie his leadership ambitions – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    On topic, he is clearly not the world’s biggest tosser. This may actually be an advantage.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    Far it from me to be vilified for not being patriotic enough but on that performance are England really worthy 9/2 joint favourites to win the tournament outright?

    Better performances from Belgium (6/1) and Italy (13/2) yet England are a shorter price because the "patriots" will five in with their cash.

    As this site isn't Patrioticbetting,com, I'm of the view England are opposable at that price on what we've seen so far.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    It's a week-on-week percentage change in the 7-day total of the specimen date figures, so should be free of weekend effects, but looking at the dates it is possibly an unwinding of an earlier bank holiday effect in the figures.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    There's a definite flattening out which can be seen first at the neighbourhood level and then later on at the district level and then later on at the national level.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    stodge said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    Far it from me to be vilified for not being patriotic enough but on that performance are England really worthy 9/2 joint favourites to win the tournament outright?

    Better performances from Belgium (6/1) and Italy (13/2) yet England are a shorter price because the "patriots" will five in with their cash.

    As this site isn't Patrioticbetting,com, I'm of the view England are opposable at that price on what we've seen so far.
    I agree, but it may be worth waiting until after the group stages to lay.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited June 2021
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    England PCR positivity

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  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    I’ve had a punt on austria @1.8
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK case summary

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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    Current risk of new daily COVID infection

    in the unvaccinated: 1 in 2,908
    after 1 vaccine dose: 1 in 7,091
    after 2 vaccine doses : 1 in 22,455


    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/cases-rising-rapidly-among-those-with-incomplete-vaccinations

    Assuming all other things are equal I think that suggests one dose gives >65% protection against infection and two doses >85% protection against infection.

    And vaccinations increase every day.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited June 2021
    UK R

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  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Anyone saying “England looked a bit slow” needs to step outside the front door.

    But if this weather keeps up I might have to rethink my suggestion that England should be prioritising home advantage!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK hospitals

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503

    There was a times a huge amount of booing during the game, what was that all about? Just random large boos, not after a bad foul or anything.

    Home fans at most of the games so far seem to be quick to whistle/boo when the opposition have the ball - is that what you mean, or was it more random?
    I can't claim I understand but I worry present trends are renormalising bad behaviour and disrespect in the game towards players of either side.
    It's particularly a British thing, unfortunately, though there are some seriously nasty Russian supporters. In general Nordic fans have a good reputation - the Danes used to call theirs "roligans" (ro=peace). The Finnish fans behaved really well when a Danish player collapsed, chanting his name with the Danish supporters. I took my wife on holiday early in the marriage, and she was appalled to learn that the Danish national team were staying in the same hotel - she anticipated drunkenness, shouting, etc. The only sign we saw of them was that the newspapers had all been taken when we went down to a late breakfast.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK deaths

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Djokovic wins third set 6-3.

    Tsitsipas still two sets ahead. Could be a five-setter!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Third set to Djokovic.

    It is now time to remind ourselves that Tsitsipas surrendered a two set lead in his semi-final, but won anyway.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited June 2021
    Age related data

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  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549

    kle4 said:

    Good start. Long way to go. 👍

    They might as well give us the trophy now.
    Good win but they'll surely need to be more adventurous if they want to win the thing.

    Out of interest how tall is Sunak?
    5 ft 6 inches but that's a self declaration and with flats.
    Is that like WWE wrestler heights?
    WWE isn't really my thing.

    I was shocked to find it is all staged rather than proper wrestling.
    Performers worthy of respect that lot. Maintaining kayfabe whilst performing some dangerous manuevres, even when they go wrong, is impressive.
    I was raised on proper wrestling, growing up I used to watch with my grandfather the likes of Big Daddy and Giant Haystacks.

    They were proper wrestlers, not like these fancy dan WWE lot.
    British wrestling Big Daddy vs Giant Haystacks. 18th June, 1981, Wembley Arena.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DSro4l_0cE

    Gotta love Big Daddy's entrance, esp. the baton twirler entourage!

    Never ever heard of these guys before TSE's comment. Reminds me so much of my own misspent youth, watching professional wrestling on TV back in WVa.

    Only clear memory that still sticks in my head, was when during a televised "bout" at the old Charleston Civic Center, a little old lady in the front row got so excited, that she dumped her box of popcorn on the "villain" as he was in the process of belaboring the "good guy" on the floor below the ring.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Age related data scaled to 100k per age group

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK vaccinations

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    stodge said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    Far it from me to be vilified for not being patriotic enough but on that performance are England really worthy 9/2 joint favourites to win the tournament outright?

    Better performances from Belgium (6/1) and Italy (13/2) yet England are a shorter price because the "patriots" will five in with their cash.

    As this site isn't Patrioticbetting,com, I'm of the view England are opposable at that price on what we've seen so far.
    Nations are always too short with their own bookmakers when it comes to international tournaments, too much patriotic money out there from casual punters.

    Foreign bookies will likely have better odds on England.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Third set to Djokovic.

    It is now time to remind ourselves that Tsitsipas surrendered a two set lead in his semi-final, but won anyway.

    I don't think Djoko has enough left to win the match if Tsisipas keeps his level up.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    Far it from me to be vilified for not being patriotic enough but on that performance are England really worthy 9/2 joint favourites to win the tournament outright?

    Better performances from Belgium (6/1) and Italy (13/2) yet England are a shorter price because the "patriots" will five in with their cash.

    As this site isn't Patrioticbetting,com, I'm of the view England are opposable at that price on what we've seen so far.
    Nations are always too short with their own bookmakers when it comes to international tournaments, too much patriotic money out there from casual punters.

    Foreign bookies will likely have better odds on England.
    I’m sure that used to be the case, but everything is global, now, surely?

    The big money value bettors from Asia and the US doesn’t care for our piddling patriotism.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    PCR positivity tends to be a good indication of a change. I would say, of interest, but early days.

    image
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    Third set to Djokovic.

    It is now time to remind ourselves that Tsitsipas surrendered a two set lead in his semi-final, but won anyway.

    I don't think Djoko has enough left to win the match if Tsisipas keeps his level up.
    The commentators are asking the same questions - Djokovic being a dozen years older and conditions being very warm in Paris.

    OTOH we are talking about a man with a great devotion to physical conditioning, who has won in Melbourne nine times. So no, I don't think Djokovic will run out of juice. Tsitsipas will have to outplay him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Cookie said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
    This does indeed appear to be the trend.

    Interesting? Or just ‘noise’?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470

    kle4 said:

    Good start. Long way to go. 👍

    They might as well give us the trophy now.
    Good win but they'll surely need to be more adventurous if they want to win the thing.

    Out of interest how tall is Sunak?
    5 ft 6 inches but that's a self declaration and with flats.
    Is that like WWE wrestler heights?
    WWE isn't really my thing.

    I was shocked to find it is all staged rather than proper wrestling.
    Performers worthy of respect that lot. Maintaining kayfabe whilst performing some dangerous manuevres, even when they go wrong, is impressive.
    I was raised on proper wrestling, growing up I used to watch with my grandfather the likes of Big Daddy and Giant Haystacks.

    They were proper wrestlers, not like these fancy dan WWE lot.
    British wrestling Big Daddy vs Giant Haystacks. 18th June, 1981, Wembley Arena.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DSro4l_0cE

    Gotta love Big Daddy's entrance, esp. the baton twirler entourage!

    Never ever heard of these guys before TSE's comment. Reminds me so much of my own misspent youth, watching professional wrestling on TV back in WVa.

    Only clear memory that still sticks in my head, was when during a televised "bout" at the old Charleston Civic Center, a little old lady in the front row got so excited, that she dumped her box of popcorn on the "villain" as he was in the process of belaboring the "good guy" on the floor below the ring.

    Brian Glover went on to become quite a famous actor.

    Here he is against Les Kellett - all the great comedic actors were Yorkshiremen:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_zPH3u65H8
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    PCR positivity tends to be a good indication of a change. I would say, of interest, but early days.

    image
    Indeed. I wonder whether this will have been spotted by the ‘experts’.

    Just ‘noise’?

    Hmm.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    On Topic

    fascinating article from the Guardian from 2011 on this very subject

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/18/world-leader-heights-tall

    Looking at past contests:

    Blair 6' bt Major 5' 11"
    Cameron 6' 1" bt Brown 5' 11"
    Heath 6' bt Wilson 5' 8" (1970 and Feb 1974)

    But

    Thatcher 5' 5" bt Callaghan 6' 1"
    Wilson 5' 8"bt Alec D-H 6' 1"
    Wilson 5' 8" bt Heath 6' (1966 and October 1974)

    Johnson and Corbyn are both the same height - 5' 9"

    Keir Starmer is 5' 8"
    Rishi Sunak is 5' 6" (Which means that is a bloody tall officer next to him).

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    alex_ said:

    Anyone saying “England looked a bit slow” needs to step outside the front door.

    But if this weather keeps up I might have to rethink my suggestion that England should be prioritising home advantage!

    Weather should cool off by Friday - for our encounter with… Scotland!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    On Topic

    fascinating article from the Guardian from 2011 on this very subject

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/18/world-leader-heights-tall

    Looking at past contests:

    Blair 6' bt Major 5' 11"
    Cameron 6' 1" bt Brown 5' 11"
    Heath 6' bt Wilson 5' 8" (1970 and Feb 1974)

    But

    Thatcher 5' 5" bt Callaghan 6' 1"
    Wilson 5' 8"bt Alec D-H 6' 1"
    Wilson 5' 8" bt Heath 6' (1966 and October 1974)

    Johnson and Corbyn are both the same height - 5' 9"

    Keir Starmer is 5' 8"
    Rishi Sunak is 5' 6" (Which means that is a bloody tall officer next to him).

    I fear that @TSE's account has been hacked by the "katra" of the late @Plato_Says, once of this parish.

    (She had a thing about how "inferior" short men are!)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited June 2021

    On Topic

    fascinating article from the Guardian from 2011 on this very subject

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/18/world-leader-heights-tall

    Looking at past contests:

    Blair 6' bt Major 5' 11"
    Cameron 6' 1" bt Brown 5' 11"
    Heath 6' bt Wilson 5' 8" (1970 and Feb 1974)

    But

    Thatcher 5' 5" bt Callaghan 6' 1"
    Wilson 5' 8"bt Alec D-H 6' 1"
    Wilson 5' 8" bt Heath 6' (1966 and October 1974)

    Johnson and Corbyn are both the same height - 5' 9"

    Keir Starmer is 5' 8"
    Rishi Sunak is 5' 6" (Which means that is a bloody tall officer next to him).

    Ummm - Wilson also won the general election of Feb 1974 - 301 seats to 297.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470
    Cookie said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
    Interestingly the maximum level each district reaches has been lower than its previous maximum.

    Nowhere goes exponential.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    ydoethur said:

    On Topic

    fascinating article from the Guardian from 2011 on this very subject

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/18/world-leader-heights-tall

    Looking at past contests:

    Blair 6' bt Major 5' 11"
    Cameron 6' 1" bt Brown 5' 11"
    Heath 6' bt Wilson 5' 8" (1970 and Feb 1974)

    But

    Thatcher 5' 5" bt Callaghan 6' 1"
    Wilson 5' 8"bt Alec D-H 6' 1"
    Wilson 5' 8" bt Heath 6' (1966 and October 1974)

    Johnson and Corbyn are both the same height - 5' 9"

    Keir Starmer is 5' 8"
    Rishi Sunak is 5' 6" (Which means that is a bloody tall officer next to him).

    Ummm - Wilson also won the general election of Feb 1974 - 301 seats to 297.
    Apologies yes of course. Misread the page.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    It's a week-on-week percentage change in the 7-day total of the specimen date figures, so should be free of weekend effects, but looking at the dates it is possibly an unwinding of an earlier bank holiday effect in the figures.
    Oliver Johnson
    @BristOliver
    Sticking with a football theme, it's definitely not bending like Beckham, but it's another day of slightly less steep rise at least. (10 day doubling is still pretty unpleasant of course)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    China’s social media possibly even more toxic than ours.
    https://twitter.com/itrulyknownchi1/status/1403905508713533448
    Again #China’s nationalism is not getting weird or anything when social media here is flooded with patriotic “netizens” laying into the nationalist shock jock newspaper the Global Times for not being nationalist enough. A thread...

    Especially considering it would get shut down pronto, if the regime didn’t like it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    edited June 2021
    Austria / North Macedonia doesn't sound like a particularly close match.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,947

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    "... and take your vaccines"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    Third set to Djokovic.

    It is now time to remind ourselves that Tsitsipas surrendered a two set lead in his semi-final, but won anyway.

    I don't think Djoko has enough left to win the match if Tsisipas keeps his level up.
    The commentators are asking the same questions - Djokovic being a dozen years older and conditions being very warm in Paris.

    OTOH we are talking about a man with a great devotion to physical conditioning, who has won in Melbourne nine times. So no, I don't think Djokovic will run out of juice. Tsitsipas will have to outplay him.
    He is an amazing athlete Novak is. Also mentally very strong. But winning from 2 sets down is rare on clay. I'm going to say Tsitsipas in 5.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Delta (unsurprisingly) seems to be taking off in both Russia and China.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited June 2021
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Third set to Djokovic.

    It is now time to remind ourselves that Tsitsipas surrendered a two set lead in his semi-final, but won anyway.

    I don't think Djoko has enough left to win the match if Tsisipas keeps his level up.
    The commentators are asking the same questions - Djokovic being a dozen years older and conditions being very warm in Paris.

    OTOH we are talking about a man with a great devotion to physical conditioning, who has won in Melbourne nine times. So no, I don't think Djokovic will run out of juice. Tsitsipas will have to outplay him.
    He is an amazing athlete Novak is. Also mentally very strong. But winning from 2 sets down is rare on clay. I'm going to say Tsitsipas in 5.
    Hmmmm...

    3-0 now in the 4th
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Nigelb said:

    Delta (unsurprisingly) seems to be taking off in both Russia and China.

    China might just live to regret being virtually unvaccinated.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    Will any of the "experts" be brave enough to say "yeah, but it hasn't hit London yet."
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    *IF* this comes to pass (which would be wondrous news) then it'll make the stalling look silly to most of us, but the wider electorate will probably reward him with another polling bounce.

    Being marginally more severe with restrictions, and releasing them slightly more slowly than in England, appeared to do a world of good to Sturgeon's ratings earlier on in the pandemic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    Will any of the "experts" be brave enough to say "yeah, but it hasn't hit London yet."
    If past infection confers any form of immunity, it’s unlikely to do a lot of damage in London.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,360

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    The Austrians have the worst football kit.

    Dark blue and turquoise….?!!

    And the keeper’s wearing fucking pink.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    Either

    a) the four day trend is ‘just noise’

    or

    b) it’s the endgame

    Which is it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Of course, he doesn’t need a week’s notice to remove restrictions from the position we’re in. He does however need a week (ideally more) before extending them.

    He could say he’s not opening up tomorrow, and pass legislation to that effect - remember, the law will need changing - and change what passes for his mind on Friday.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Even better question with hospitalisations, or more relevantly, people in hospital. Given that rises in cases were baked in, the reason we were giving ourselves 5 weeks between stages was to assess the impact on hospitals and deaths.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    alex_ said:

    Anyone saying “England looked a bit slow” needs to step outside the front door.

    But if this weather keeps up I might have to rethink my suggestion that England should be prioritising home advantage!

    It would not be the first time England has been scuppered by ludicrously hot weather.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Delta (unsurprisingly) seems to be taking off in both Russia and China.

    China might just live to regret being virtually unvaccinated.
    Russian too. (And I expect vaccine hesitancy will not be tolerated in China.)

    https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1403766637342248966
    "... ~ 2/3 of Russians say they do not plan to get the vaccine. Analysts attribute hesitancy to a mix of factors: widespread distrust of the authorities & frequent state television reports describing the coronavirus as mostly defeated or not dangerous."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Third set to Djokovic.

    It is now time to remind ourselves that Tsitsipas surrendered a two set lead in his semi-final, but won anyway.

    I don't think Djoko has enough left to win the match if Tsisipas keeps his level up.
    The commentators are asking the same questions - Djokovic being a dozen years older and conditions being very warm in Paris.

    OTOH we are talking about a man with a great devotion to physical conditioning, who has won in Melbourne nine times. So no, I don't think Djokovic will run out of juice. Tsitsipas will have to outplay him.
    He is an amazing athlete Novak is. Also mentally very strong. But winning from 2 sets down is rare on clay. I'm going to say Tsitsipas in 5.
    Hmmmm...

    3-0 now in the 4th
    Yes. A final set shootout. Tsitsipas is 3/1 and imo that's value.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    Boris could still wait on a further week of data - and if the rise really is tailing off, still call the restrictions over on the 21st.

    Again, I come back to this question (if there are any journos out there): "Prime Minister, it was expected that the May 2021 loosening of restrictions in England would not be without some rise in cases. What rise was expected by those May measures alone - and how does it compare with what we are seeing? How much has the Indian/Delta variant increased the number of cases over what was expected anyway?"
    Of course, he doesn’t need a week’s notice to remove restrictions from the position we’re in. He does however need a week (ideally more) before extending them.

    He could say he’s not opening up tomorrow, and pass legislation to that effect - remember, the law will need changing - and change what passes for his mind on Friday.
    Does legislation need passing? I thought it had already been passed granting an extension in laws until September?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    They might have a shit kit, but they’re at least quite good at football

    1-0 Austria
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    BBC News 24 incessant talking over Biden Windsor arrival very irritating - could learn from Hugh Edwards who knows when to keep quiet!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    alex_ said:

    Anyone saying “England looked a bit slow” needs to step outside the front door.

    But if this weather keeps up I might have to rethink my suggestion that England should be prioritising home advantage!

    It would not be the first time England has been scuppered by ludicrously hot weather.
    2002? Not winning the group was a big mistake as it meant we had to play Brazil in the afternoon rather than the evening.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Cookie said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
    This does indeed appear to be the trend.

    Interesting? Or just ‘noise’?
    The other thing is that the virus "peaking" in original hotspots seeded direct from India, and then spreading outwards, can give some seriously misleading figures if trying to draw conclusions about virus spread. Because, all things being equal, it will initially spread in all directions which has a multiplier effect in the first iteration. It is only once it then spreads onward from those areas that the multiplier begins to reduce (it won't spread backwards whence it came, or to neighbouring areas that formed part of the first iteration)
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,210
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Delta (unsurprisingly) seems to be taking off in both Russia and China.

    China might just live to regret being virtually unvaccinated.
    Russian too. (And I expect vaccine hesitancy will not be tolerated in China.)

    https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1403766637342248966
    "... ~ 2/3 of Russians say they do not plan to get the vaccine. Analysts attribute hesitancy to a mix of factors: widespread distrust of the authorities & frequent state television reports describing the coronavirus as mostly defeated or not dangerous."
    The Russians seem to trust Uncle Vova about as much as we do. Possibly less.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,947

    ydoethur said:

    On Topic

    fascinating article from the Guardian from 2011 on this very subject

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/18/world-leader-heights-tall

    Looking at past contests:

    Blair 6' bt Major 5' 11"
    Cameron 6' 1" bt Brown 5' 11"
    Heath 6' bt Wilson 5' 8" (1970 and Feb 1974)

    But

    Thatcher 5' 5" bt Callaghan 6' 1"
    Wilson 5' 8"bt Alec D-H 6' 1"
    Wilson 5' 8" bt Heath 6' (1966 and October 1974)

    Johnson and Corbyn are both the same height - 5' 9"

    Keir Starmer is 5' 8"
    Rishi Sunak is 5' 6" (Which means that is a bloody tall officer next to him).

    Ummm - Wilson also won the general election of Feb 1974 - 301 seats to 297.
    Apologies yes of course. Misread the page.
    Although, just to complicate matters, Heath won about 250k more votes than Wilson in 2/74.

    So maybe voters in marginal seats care less?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    edited June 2021
    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Third set to Djokovic.

    It is now time to remind ourselves that Tsitsipas surrendered a two set lead in his semi-final, but won anyway.

    I don't think Djoko has enough left to win the match if Tsisipas keeps his level up.
    The commentators are asking the same questions - Djokovic being a dozen years older and conditions being very warm in Paris.

    OTOH we are talking about a man with a great devotion to physical conditioning, who has won in Melbourne nine times. So no, I don't think Djokovic will run out of juice. Tsitsipas will have to outplay him.
    He is an amazing athlete Novak is. Also mentally very strong. But winning from 2 sets down is rare on clay. I'm going to say Tsitsipas in 5.
    Hmmmm...

    3-0 now in the 4th
    Yes. A final set shootout. Tsitsipas is 3/1 and imo that's value.
    Well, that's 2-5, so at least he's steadying the ship a little.

    If Djokovic now serves it out then Tsitsipas will have the honour at the start of the fifth. If he can somehow raise his level again then that could come in handy. AFAIK the French is the last of the Slams where the final set is still played to advantage.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,470

    Cookie said:

    Congratulations again to England. Excellent performance against the World Cup runners up.

    Away from football, is the COVID cases curve flattening out a bit?

    If you look at the percentage change in the 7-day case rate then today's rate of increase is lower than yesterday's for the first time in a while. Maybe it's an inflection point. We'll see.
    Seems too good to be true. Weekend effect?
    No, because it's a seven day figure.
    Oops - it's a fair cop. I guess it's just that, whilst I think there's good reason to suppose that things will be alright in the end with the Plague (the panicked response to it is a different matter,) I'm also prepared for the fact that things aren't going to show signs of improvement on the cases front anytime soon.

    Of course, I'd be delighted to be wrong in this supposition. If caseload growth begins to slow down significantly through late June and early July, then the Zero Covidiots' case for yet more stalling next month grows a great deal weaker.
    One thing I've noticed is that on the cases map you can see that the delta variant is finally spreading out of the last locations where it was seeded. Out from Leicester into Leicestershire, now into East and West Lothian from Edinburgh.

    People did say this wouldn't happen, because those areas had a higher rate of vaccination, but perhaps it's somewhere in between: it is happening, but it's happening more slowly because of the vaccinations. So it might not be too much of a surprise to see the rate of increase start to slow already, because the virus is starting to encounter more widely vaccinated populations.

    If this optimistic interpretation is right, then it would make a delay to 21st June look a bit silly. Of course, it might not be right.
    That is exactly what is happening.

    You can see a similar effect from Glasgow - which is another place which has reached a peak far below previous ones.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited June 2021

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Third set to Djokovic.

    It is now time to remind ourselves that Tsitsipas surrendered a two set lead in his semi-final, but won anyway.

    I don't think Djoko has enough left to win the match if Tsisipas keeps his level up.
    The commentators are asking the same questions - Djokovic being a dozen years older and conditions being very warm in Paris.

    OTOH we are talking about a man with a great devotion to physical conditioning, who has won in Melbourne nine times. So no, I don't think Djokovic will run out of juice. Tsitsipas will have to outplay him.
    He is an amazing athlete Novak is. Also mentally very strong. But winning from 2 sets down is rare on clay. I'm going to say Tsitsipas in 5.
    Hmmmm...

    3-0 now in the 4th
    Djokovic wins 4th set 6-2, fifth set will be interesting!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited June 2021

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2021
    Macedonia equalise!

    Disasterous mistake from Austria
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,947
    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    I wouldn't say it's economically suicidal. It's certainly damaging, but after all we've put the economy through in the last 15 months, delaying a few weeks on easing the last 10-20% of restrictions shouldn't, in itself, finish us.

    It's the politics of this that stink.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
    If the third wave really does defy the predictions of the catastrophists and turn out to be a damp squib, then absolutely - the first thing we should demand is the repeal of the Coronavirus Act.

    And the second is to fill whichever building at Warwick Uni their damned models were generated in with gasoline soaked face masks, and set it on fire.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    kinabalu said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
    Apparently extending by two weeks will mean all over 50s and vulnerables will be double jabbed and also have the two weeks afterwards to get up to full speed.

    That might be good compromise position for Boris, but I suspect the zero covid types will be back for more as soon as that new date is in view.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    kinabalu said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
    Apparently extending by two weeks will mean all over 50s and vulnerables will be double jabbed and also have the two weeks afterwards to get up to full speed.

    That might be good compromise position for Boris, but I suspect the zero covid types will be back for more as soon as that new date is in view.
    Of course they will - and thus we're back to the fear that Johnson will dither and then cave.

    We have no power over thus, of course. All we can do is keep our fingers crossed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    I wouldn't say it's economically suicidal. It's certainly damaging, but after all we've put the economy through in the last 15 months, delaying a few weeks on easing the last 10-20% of restrictions shouldn't, in itself, finish us.

    It's the politics of this that stink.
    The problem is for the June and July momentum. Businesses that were getting ready to open up the investment taps are now holding their decisions back because they're worried about the government backsliding and pushing the nation into permanent social distancing.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    kle4 said:

    Good start. Long way to go. 👍

    They might as well give us the trophy now.
    Good win but they'll surely need to be more adventurous if they want to win the thing.

    Out of interest how tall is Sunak?
    5 ft 6 inches but that's a self declaration and with flats.
    Is that like WWE wrestler heights?
    WWE isn't really my thing.

    I was shocked to find it is all staged rather than proper wrestling.
    Performers worthy of respect that lot. Maintaining kayfabe whilst performing some dangerous manuevres, even when they go wrong, is impressive.
    I was raised on proper wrestling, growing up I used to watch with my grandfather the likes of Big Daddy and Giant Haystacks.

    They were proper wrestlers, not like these fancy dan WWE lot.
    British wrestling Big Daddy vs Giant Haystacks. 18th June, 1981, Wembley Arena.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DSro4l_0cE

    Gotta love Big Daddy's entrance, esp. the baton twirler entourage!

    Never ever heard of these guys before TSE's comment. Reminds me so much of my own misspent youth, watching professional wrestling on TV back in WVa.

    Only clear memory that still sticks in my head, was when during a televised "bout" at the old Charleston Civic Center, a little old lady in the front row got so excited, that she dumped her box of popcorn on the "villain" as he was in the process of belaboring the "good guy" on the floor below the ring.

    So. A big man in a revealing white leotard emblazoned "Big Daddy" goes to meet his large male friend with a large beard to have a bear cuddle and a feel.

    Hadn't realised just how gay British wrestling was...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    BBC News 24 incessant talking over Biden Windsor arrival very irritating - could learn from Hugh Edwards who knows when to keep quiet!

    It also happens in the tennis. ITV this time. In the womens' final the commentators Sam Smith and Anne Keothavong continued talking after the ball was served.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    One thing i do wonder is whether Johnson has been having conversations with other leaders at the G7 about their approach to unlocking. They may even have scientists saying very different things to the SAGE bubble that he is getting thereby giving him a different perspective on the scientific advice.

    Or maybe they're all just giving him pitying words and saying "so sorry you've got the Delta variant..."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    edited June 2021

    kinabalu said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
    Apparently extending by two weeks will mean all over 50s and vulnerables will be double jabbed and also have the two weeks afterwards to get up to full speed.

    That might be good compromise position for Boris, but I suspect the zero covid types will be back for more as soon as that new date is in view.
    Yep. Just heard of a friend aged 55 only second jabbed today. We haven't completed the willing priority groups yet.
    Meanwhile outrage abounds that this government might choose the more popular option.
    Whoever would have thunk it?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    geoffw said:

    BBC News 24 incessant talking over Biden Windsor arrival very irritating - could learn from Hugh Edwards who knows when to keep quiet!

    It also happens in the tennis. ITV this time. In the womens' final the commentators Sam Smith and Anne Keothavong continued talking after the ball was served.
    It's like they all think they're on the radio and their viewers don't have eyes.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    alex_ said:

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
    Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.

    Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
    Apparently extending by two weeks will mean all over 50s and vulnerables will be double jabbed and also have the two weeks afterwards to get up to full speed.

    That might be good compromise position for Boris, but I suspect the zero covid types will be back for more as soon as that new date is in view.
    Yep. Just heard of a friend aged 55 only second jabbed today. We haven't completed the willing priority groups yet.
    Meanwhile outrage abounds that this government might choose the more popular option.
    Whoever would have thunk it?
    50,000 brides wave with tears welling up in their eyes.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    edited June 2021
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    Fan is seriously injured after falling from a stand at Wembley stadium during England's Euro 2020 clash with Croatia
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    geoffw said:

    BBC News 24 incessant talking over Biden Windsor arrival very irritating - could learn from Hugh Edwards who knows when to keep quiet!

    It also happens in the tennis. ITV this time. In the womens' final the commentators Sam Smith and Anne Keothavong continued talking after the ball was served.
    I'm watching on Eurosport today and haven't noticed anything particularly irritating.

    And the good news from the match is that Tsitsipas has held his opening service game in the decider. He's not done yet.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    So from what I have seen / read in Copenhagen yesterday we have the Danish and Finnish fans united chanting Christian Eriksen. And in London today we have Engerland fans booing first their own team and then the Croatian national anthem. Compare and contrast...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken?
    He certainly needs to be careful, looking at the politics of this, that the 'government by unelected scientists' doesn't take off as a theme.

    At the moment the polling seems to show the peeps are still cautious and favour keeping some lockdown though.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    alex_ said:

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters :(

    And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
    Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.

    Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
    Indeed. I said at the very beginning, when this was all going to shit, why keep supermarkets open? Force them to deliver. Pay them.

    But no. The science says that the virus cannot spread in Tesco’s.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.

    Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.

    I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.

    Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
    The catch at the moment is these figures will reflect actions a week or so ago- when schools were on half term holiday. The key is in the door, the towel is on the rail, but not quite home and dry yet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460

    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.

    Noise?

    Go on Boris. On the telly tomorrow, just say "Fuck it, this thing is done. Don't be stupid, but go get your lives back..."
    He should really. And at worst this delay should be short and sharp and end with the end. Time to take Covid out of the law.
    Apparently extending by two weeks will mean all over 50s and vulnerables will be double jabbed and also have the two weeks afterwards to get up to full speed.

    That might be good compromise position for Boris, but I suspect the zero covid types will be back for more as soon as that new date is in view.
    Yep. Just heard of a friend aged 55 only second jabbed today. We haven't completed the willing priority groups yet.
    Meanwhile outrage abounds that this government might choose the more popular option.
    Whoever would have thunk it?
    50,000 brides wave with tears welling up in their eyes.
    No weddings, but....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9681309/England-supporters-pack-fan-zones-pub-gardens-Euro-2020-campaign-starts.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.

    If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.

    Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.

    Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
    Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
    I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
    Not really I still think we should unlock on the 21st but I'm resigned to the zero COVID idiots having won this round. I'm just hopeful that they won't win the next one. I'm still fearful that they will and the UK will simply exist as a sad place full of people who are scared of their own shadows because the scientists have made them that way.
This discussion has been closed.