At a population (national) level there are a few objectives wrt Covid
i) Don't create new variants. That can be achieved by having a high level of vaccinations amongst the population, even if the vaccinations are not sterlising. ii) Don't overwhelm the health service. This can be achieved by having high levels of vax amongst the more vulnerable. We got here a while ago in the UK.
Lockdowns simply delay the path to herd immunity, which must be created through a combination of infection and vaccination. After the more vulnerable have had the opportunity to be vaccinated is it right to still have restrictions on everyone, particularly as quite soon every adult will have had the opportunity to be single vaxxed. I fear the zero covidians wish to get the number of cases down to zero sans herd immunity. That's not a permanent solution.
Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.
If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.
Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.
Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
If cases are falling we really don't have a problem. But to be honest it looks more like a weekend effect.
Interestingly, perhaps, the week on week rise has fallen four days in a row.
If lockdown continues a debate has to be started about maybe a lockdown tax so those who have so far benefited from lockdowns start to feel the financial pain
At a population (national) level there are a few objectives wrt Covid
i) Don't create new variants. That can be achieved by having a high level of vaccinations amongst the population, even if the vaccinations are not sterlising. ii) Don't overwhelm the health service. This can be achieved by having high levels of vax amongst the more vulnerable. We got here a while ago in the UK.
Lockdowns simply delay the path to herd immunity, which must be created through a combination of infection and vaccination. After the more vulnerable have had the opportunity to be vaccinated is it right to still have restrictions on everyone, particularly as quite soon every adult will have had the opportunity to be single vaxxed. I fear the zero covidians wish to get the number of cases down to zero sans herd immunity. That's not a permanent solution.
Indeed. It’s simply deferring the exit wave until the autumn. Not wise.
Shortly we're going to be at the stage where we have restrictions due to the Gov't worrying about the antivaxxers (Even though they're not bothered about Covid themselves), and young people who are at low risk.
Anyone 25+ in NE London who wants a first vaccination can book up for this - it'll be interesting to see if this feeds through into the national figures. Long overdue of course.
If I were being a bluff old cynic or a little contrarian perhaps, I'd suggest a story like this has been "planted" to terrify the doubly vaccinated into supporting an extension of restrictionss.
Anyone 25+ in NE London who wants a first vaccination can book up for this - it'll be interesting to see if this feeds through into the national figures. Long overdue of course.
If I were being a bluff old cynic or a little contrarian perhaps, I'd suggest a story like this has been "planted" to terrify the doubly vaccinated into supporting an extension of restrictionss.
It’s 29% of 42, ie 14 people, a tiny number.
I'd wager all old and with comorbidities too. That's very different to how Covid affects an unvaxxed pop.
Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.
Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.
I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.
Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters
And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.
Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
I think measures have to continue in hospitals, but NHS England have told us that already.
In the event of common sense prevailing rather than model-driven panic, I would still have expected control measures to remain in healthcare settings, masks to continue on public transport, and perhaps the WFH advice to be left in place (although the evidence I see from my window of the train station car park suggests that quite a lot of businesses are taking a relaxed attitude to that already.) Leave residual control measures in place until it can be demonstrated that the thing has basically burned itself out.
But the rest of the nonsense really ought to go; air bridges should be opened to other countries with similar levels of infection and vaccination coverage, when these data allow; and there should be statistical targets set for the removal of the residual control measures at home. Certainly if the third wave does, pray God, turn out to be a damp squib then (bearing in mind that the SPI-M modellers made a hash of their Spring forecasts as well) we really ought to chuck all their predictions in the dustbin.
The government is confident the backlash to their delay is essentially going to be meh?
But here is the thing. Are they correct? how big will the 'backlash' be, if there is a backlash at all?
There'll be a lot of distraught brides all over the TV if the wedding rules aren't relaxed, but more broadly the Government's core support is derived from old farts who approve of lockdowns, so they'll be fine.
Fair enough BR, but labour's stance is interesting. One thing young people love to do is travel, and today Thornberry ruled it out for.....well....ever.
Yes the govt has no fear. Pensioners will always support lockdowns to feel safe
Really? My retired friends are all champing at the bit to be allowed out to enjoy themselves. They have spent 15 months being f***ing bored with nothing to do. When at least work has given me something to do between 9 and 5.
Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.
If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.
Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.
Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
If cases are falling we really don't have a problem. But to be honest it looks more like a weekend effect.
Interestingly, perhaps, the week on week rise has fallen four days in a row.
BBC News bulletin headline is that we won a football match. Is it really the biggest story of the day?
On the one hand, cue avalanche of moaning emails from viewers outside of England. And a fair few inside England who are bored rigid by football.
On the other, it makes a welcome change from death and misery.
Yes it was
I had a day out with my wife and her brothers family yesterday followed by a takeaway at our place.
We went to the zoo and there were loads of couples and families just enjoying life
Today I watched the footie and bunch of fans singing their hears out and living life followed by a wonderful walk through some woods with my dog in the glorious sunshine.
Good riddance to Netenyahu . Another from the axis of evil to be shown the door . How fitting that Trump and his arselicker have gone in the space of a year .
What's the backstory? Hates fans? Hates Macedonia? Hates a quiet celebration?
He just seems to fall out with everyone. Jose Mourinho was his coach at Inter Milan and according to Wikipedia said that he "is a fantastic person but has the attitude of a child"
That was 11 years ago and I’m not sure much has changed.
Anyone 25+ in NE London who wants a first vaccination can book up for this - it'll be interesting to see if this feeds through into the national figures. Long overdue of course.
If I were being a bluff old cynic or a little contrarian perhaps, I'd suggest a story like this has been "planted" to terrify the doubly vaccinated into supporting an extension of restrictionss.
It’s 29% of 42, ie 14 people, a tiny number.
I'd wager all old and with comorbidities too. That's very different to how Covid affects an unvaxxed pop.
As has been pointed out by the statisticians and medicos of their parish, that actually means a very high level of protectiveness from the vaccines, given the skews in age and vulnerability in this getting serious COVID vs general population.
The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.
Noise?
There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1. I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse? Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.
If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
Newham is in big trouble then judging by what one of our posters says about anti vax attitudes down there.
The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.
Noise?
There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1. I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse? Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.
If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
Newham is in big trouble then judging by what one of our posters says about anti vax attitudes down there.
“The head of France’s 🇫🇷armed forces has resigned amid a row over his handling of retired generals accused of fomenting insurrection. Gen Lecointre would step down to avoid being dragged into a political debate before next year’s presidential election.”
The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.
Noise?
There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1. I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse? Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.
If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
Difficult to have much sympathy for people who refused the vaccine.
Down here in Brighton, far away from the North West hot spots, cases have risen from a handful a day 10 days ago to over 50 a day now. Still pretty small, but two questions: a) will the rise continue at this rate; and b) will this end up in hospitalisations? Too early to answer either so far with any certainty (despite some claims on here), as the rise is so recent. I'm pretty sure it can be traced back to the bedlam down here last Bank Holiday, when there was no sign of any restrictions, let alone lockdown. My fingers are crossed.
Very hard to tell, isn't it? Cases are rising in most of the country, it's just that the rate of increase beyond the worst-hit areas is fairly pedestrian.
I'm guessing that the combination of high vaccine take-up in most areas, augmented by this very welcome outbreak of hot, sunny conditions, will crush Delta. Moreover, even in the very worst hit areas, the rate of hospitalisation is still very modest compared with previous waves.
Anybody who's been jabbed and still gets seriously sick with this thing now can count themselves very, very unlucky indeed.
I'm not sure however that the hot weather will do its magic as quickly as we might like when the pubs are packing up with football supporters
And at the moment it's almost too hot to be outside.
Depends on the extent to which you think pubs have made any difference to this catastrophe at any stage.
Some would contend that hospitality has been a scapegoat in all of this from the outset, and that the bulk of transmission has occurred in hospitals, supermarkets and private homes. Hopefully the true nature of the likely patterns of infection will be one of the many things to be elucidated via the public inquiry.
I think measures have to continue in hospitals, but NHS England have told us that already.
In the event of common sense prevailing rather than model-driven panic, I would still have expected control measures to remain in healthcare settings, masks to continue on public transport, and perhaps the WFH advice to be left in place (although the evidence I see from my window of the train station car park suggests that quite a lot of businesses are taking a relaxed attitude to that already.) Leave residual control measures in place until it can be demonstrated that the thing has basically burned itself out.
But the rest of the nonsense really ought to go; air bridges should be opened to other countries with similar levels of infection and vaccination coverage, when these data allow; and there should be statistical targets set for the removal of the residual control measures at home. Certainly if the third wave does, pray God, turn out to be a damp squib then (bearing in mind that the SPI-M modellers made a hash of their Spring forecasts as well) we really ought to chuck all their predictions in the dustbin.
The government is confident the backlash to their delay is essentially going to be meh?
But here is the thing. Are they correct? how big will the 'backlash' be, if there is a backlash at all?
There'll be a lot of distraught brides all over the TV if the wedding rules aren't relaxed, but more broadly the Government's core support is derived from old farts who approve of lockdowns, so they'll be fine.
Fair enough BR, but labour's stance is interesting. One thing young people love to do is travel, and today Thornberry ruled it out for.....well....ever.
Yes the govt has no fear. Pensioners will always support lockdowns to feel safe
Really? My retired friends are all champing at the bit to be allowed out to enjoy themselves. They have spent 15 months being f***ing bored with nothing to do. When at least work has given me something to do between 9 and 5.
What I mean is retired people are happy with restrictions as they are now as many just like a quiet meal when they go out. I do not think.live music and dancing bothers them
The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.
Noise?
There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1. I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse? Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.
If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
Newham is in big trouble then judging by what one of our posters says about anti vax attitudes down there.
Parts of Leicester too.
Sadly, Leicester has had a torrid time with all this.
The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.
Noise?
There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1. I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse? Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.
If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
Newham is in big trouble then judging by what one of our posters says about anti vax attitudes down there.
Parts of Leicester too.
We can probably add socio-economic and racial inequalities to the list of moans to be deployed by the Zero Covidians.
The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.
Noise?
There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1. I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse? Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.
If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
Newham is in big trouble then judging by what one of our posters says about anti vax attitudes down there.
Parts of Leicester too.
Are there still people in Leicester who haven’t had it yet? The poor place seems to have been a hotspot for a year or more. Damn virus must run out of people to infect eventually.
At a population (national) level there are a few objectives wrt Covid
i) Don't create new variants. That can be achieved by having a high level of vaccinations amongst the population, even if the vaccinations are not sterlising. ii) Don't overwhelm the health service. This can be achieved by having high levels of vax amongst the more vulnerable. We got here a while ago in the UK.
Lockdowns simply delay the path to herd immunity, which must be created through a combination of infection and vaccination. After the more vulnerable have had the opportunity to be vaccinated is it right to still have restrictions on everyone, particularly as quite soon every adult will have had the opportunity to be single vaxxed. I fear the zero covidians wish to get the number of cases down to zero sans herd immunity. That's not a permanent solution.
Indeed. It’s simply deferring the exit wave until the autumn. Not wise.
In theory yes. In reality I don't think a delay has any real impact on behaviour other than ruining your life if you own a pub/nightclub, or want to get married. The government is operating in a fantasy world where it can dial cases up and down from whitehall, but in reality people are now living their lives so the only impact of delaying the final stage will be financial and marital misery for some. Not a good thing, but if there's going to be an exit wave, it's happening now either way.
The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.
Noise?
There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1. I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse? Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.
If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
Newham is in big trouble then judging by what one of our posters says about anti vax attitudes down there.
Parts of Leicester too.
Are there still people in Leicester who haven’t had it yet? The poor place seems to have been a hotspot for a year or more. Damn virus must run out of people to infect eventually.
Replaced by an unstable coalition in a volatile region with more than its fair share of heavily-armed extremists. One wishes the people well but struggles to be optimistic.
What's the backstory? Hates fans? Hates Macedonia? Hates a quiet celebration?
He just seems to fall out with everyone. Jose Mourinho was his coach at Inter Milan and according to Wikipedia said that he "is a fantastic person but has the attitude of a child"
That was 11 years ago and I’m not sure much has changed.
Marko Arnautović?
They were discussing this on the commentary when he came on. A bit of a character.
Replaced by an unstable coalition in a volatile region with more than its fair share of heavily-armed extremists. One wishes the people well but struggles to be optimistic.
Well quite. If the reports that were on TV a few days ago are accurate, the new ruling coalition consists of centrists, the far right and Islamists - and appears, if the numbers downthread are right, to have a parliamentary majority of one.
If Netanyahu can retain the leadership of his own party then we may not necessarily have seen the back of him for very long.
The week on week percentage rise in positive tests has fallen for the last four days IIRC.
Noise?
There's a few seriously encouraging signs in today's data. Many of the districts with the most positives - BwD, Salford, Stockport - appear to have turned a corner and are now heading down again; others have at least flattened and are no longer exponentiating. This is counterbalanced by growth in other districts who are further back in the same trend. But the encouraging thing is that there appears to be a maxima which is not disastrously high - the virus soon runs out of people to infect and localised R falls below 1.
Might be a crackpot theory, but I'm wondering if the Step 3 restrictions at current vax levels might actually be enough to push R under 1. I know, I know, we've seen big growth in the hotspots despite all that, but what if it was simply the fact that compliance with the remaining restrictions is somewhere between ragged and sparse? Until an area becomes a hotspot, people think "Oh shit, it's not gone away yet," and start following the restrictions again more closely - and spread starts to level off and come down again.
If so, we just might be closer to full-on herd immunity than feared.
I think it's more likely that the virus burns through the active unvaccinated very quickly in a given area and then runs out of viable hosts within two or three weeks, especially those of the vulnerable kind that might be hospitalised given the high rates of double vaxxing and lower rate of general activity. London is going to have a pretty awful third wave IMO but ultimately that's because of fools who have rejected the vaccine.
My GP neighbour says all of his patients who are testing positive are those who refused vaccination. That is the population it is working through, so quite a small pool for the virus to fish in, and diminishing all the time one way or another.
Newham is in big trouble then judging by what one of our posters says about anti vax attitudes down there.
Parts of Leicester too.
Are there still people in Leicester who haven’t had it yet? The poor place seems to have been a hotspot for a year or more. Damn virus must run out of people to infect eventually.
It seems to take some time about it!
Good luck, hopefully we are nearly there now.
My parents are nearby, in Rutland (town famous for the school), and apart from a prison outbreak they’ve had one of the lowest rates in the country. Amazing how two places so close geographically can have such different experiences.
Just as Boris is about to make an economically suicidal decision to extend lockdown the numbers are turning. Delta is running into walls of vaccinated people everywhere it turns. It's quickly burning through the unvaccinated by choice which is hospitalises and the young unvaccinated by policy who just get on with life after a mild cough. The nation is shrugging this off and the scientists are trying to push their agenda against the very clear data that Delta poses little to no threat to the NHS.
If things go well, he'll claim to have been vindicated.
Whilst this would be annoying, if it emboldens him enough to unlock next month and tell the Zero Covidiots to do one then, in the round, that would still be a good result.
Not much help if your business or livelihood has been destroyed by one more month of needless faffing, but at least there might finally be some hope that the bloody rules are going to come to an end.
Hopefully it will only be two weeks as the drum beat for ignoring the idiot zero COVID scientists heats up. If at the end of next week the case numbers are stable or dropping then he has to unlock. What's the point of having a government if all they're going to do is accept the policies of unelected and unaccountable scientists.
I actually agree with the bit in bold. It seems a bit more moderate and sober than your views earlier/yesterday, unless I'm mistaken? But it does suggest that tomorrow's announcement would have to be a holding operation.
If cases are falling we really don't have a problem. But to be honest it looks more like a weekend effect.
Interestingly, perhaps, the week on week rise has fallen four days in a row.
Replaced by an unstable coalition in a volatile region with more than its fair share of heavily-armed extremists. One wishes the people well but struggles to be optimistic.
Well quite. If the reports that were on TV a few days ago are accurate, the new ruling coalition consists of centrists, the far right and Islamists - and appears, if the numbers downthread are right, to have a parliamentary majority of one.
If Netanyahu can retain the leadership of his own party then we may not necessarily have seen the back of him for very long.
I don’t agree. I think this is a caretaker government to ensure he doesn’t control the levers of power while he is on trial.
When, ooops, if, he is found guilty and safely locked away, more negotiations can be found on a way forward, perhaps via yet another round of elections.
The key thing is, despite his best efforts to cause war and chaos to hang on, the bastard is gone. At last.
At a population (national) level there are a few objectives wrt Covid
i) Don't create new variants. That can be achieved by having a high level of vaccinations amongst the population, even if the vaccinations are not sterlising. ii) Don't overwhelm the health service. This can be achieved by having high levels of vax amongst the more vulnerable. We got here a while ago in the UK.
Lockdowns simply delay the path to herd immunity, which must be created through a combination of infection and vaccination. After the more vulnerable have had the opportunity to be vaccinated is it right to still have restrictions on everyone, particularly as quite soon every adult will have had the opportunity to be single vaxxed. I fear the zero covidians wish to get the number of cases down to zero sans herd immunity. That's not a permanent solution.
Indeed. It’s simply deferring the exit wave until the autumn. Not wise.
In theory yes. In reality I don't think a delay has any real impact on behaviour other than ruining your life if you own a pub/nightclub, or want to get married. The government is operating in a fantasy world where it can dial cases up and down from whitehall, but in reality people are now living their lives so the only impact of delaying the final stage will be financial and marital misery for some. Not a good thing, but if there's going to be an exit wave, it's happening now either way.
And punishing those venues that are open but playing strictly by the rules
Good riddance to Netenyahu . Another from the axis of evil to be shown the door . How fitting that Trump and his arselicker have gone in the space of a year .
Also struck today by how I could watch the G7 coverage without that awful feeling I used to get when Donald Trump was dominating and corrupting and trivializing everything with his persona and his antics. His exit due to WH2020 and consequent absence from the scene has really improved my quality of life. I can't say that about too many elections, especially foreign ones. Thanks, Joe. Thanks so much. Forever a fan. Forever in your debt.
Sorry for being off-topic but hopefully no-one will mind. What ancient building is this, shown in Dominic Cummings's main profile photo on his new Substack account? I thought at first that might be Petra but it's probably somewhere else.
Cummings has even started a company called Siwah Limited. As Giles Turner writes at Bloomberg.com, "It is unclear what Cummings’s new project will entail. Wāḥat Sīwah is the site of a legendary oracle that proclaimed Alexander the Great as the Pharaoh of Egypt."
Love it. Watch this space.
The Oracle allegedly declared Alexander to be the son of the god Zeus-Ammon, and therefore divine. Does Cummings now aspire to similar status?
He's certainly got a saviour complex. The question is what direction it's going in. His "trillion dollar bills lying on the street" have turned into "multi-trillion" ones now. He'll be lucky if he soft-lands into becoming just another internet bro blogging and tweeting about rationalism, superforecasting, effective altruism, spaced repetition, the need for brilliance in central government, etc. Instead he is calling for "regime change" so that "the most able people", who provide "many orders of magnitude" of value more than "average leaders", can be put into "the highest leverage positions". Amon-Alexander-theDom!
Good riddance to Netenyahu . Another from the axis of evil to be shown the door . How fitting that Trump and his arselicker have gone in the space of a year .
Also struck today by how I could watch the G7 coverage without that awful feeling I used to get when Donald Trump was dominating and corrupting and trivializing everything with his persona and his antics. His exit due to WH2020 and consequent absence from the scene has really improved my quality of life. I can't say that about too many elections, especially foreign ones. Thanks, Joe. Thanks so much. Forever a fan. Forever in your debt.
What he is, and what he will always be as your next President, is Not Donald Trump. And that is what makes Joe Biden acceptable, under the circumstances.
Replaced by an unstable coalition in a volatile region with more than its fair share of heavily-armed extremists. One wishes the people well but struggles to be optimistic.
Well quite. If the reports that were on TV a few days ago are accurate, the new ruling coalition consists of centrists, the far right and Islamists - and appears, if the numbers downthread are right, to have a parliamentary majority of one.
If Netanyahu can retain the leadership of his own party then we may not necessarily have seen the back of him for very long.
Didn’t he have immunity from prison as PM? And is now almost certainly going to end up in prison. And the Israeli courts work a bit quicker than the American ones.
GB News starting on FreeView channel 236, although when I just selected that channel nothing happened. Maybe you have to "re-scan" the channels or something.
GB News starting on FreeView channel 236, although when I just selected that channel nothing happened. Maybe you have to "re-scan" the channels or something.
GB News starting on FreeView channel 236, although when I just selected that channel nothing happened. Maybe you have to "re-scan" the channels or something.
Oh dear, the pictures and sound are out of sync...
A string of cliches that Andrew Neil could have recorded (and synchronised) months ago. If he doesn't get on with it, I'm switching to Antiques Roadshow.
Good riddance to Netenyahu . Another from the axis of evil to be shown the door . How fitting that Trump and his arselicker have gone in the space of a year .
Also struck today by how I could watch the G7 coverage without that awful feeling I used to get when Donald Trump was dominating and corrupting and trivializing everything with his persona and his antics. His exit due to WH2020 and consequent absence from the scene has really improved my quality of life. I can't say that about too many elections, especially foreign ones. Thanks, Joe. Thanks so much. Forever a fan. Forever in your debt.
What he is, and what he will always be as your next President, is Not Donald Trump. And that is what makes Joe Biden acceptable, under the circumstances.
Pew research polling on confidence in Biden, compared to the one who was Trump…
Trump, 2020: Germany 10% France 11% Italy 16% Sweden 15% Canada 20% United Kingdom 19% South Korea 17% Japan 25%
Biden, 2021: Germany 78% France 74% Italy 75% Sweden 85% Canada 77% United Kingdom 72% South Korea 67% Japan 73%
Are GB News not live streaming on YouTube? That would seem a big oversight.
I thought they would be, but it seems not.
My understanding is Talk Radio get a decent chunk of it traffic via YouTube streaming and clips. Hence when they got the ban hammer, Rupert was on the blower to the big whigs at Google.
Picnic with old friends in Green Park. Plentiful Greek white wine
Stroll home through happy singing English people wandering around Mayfair, which seems to have turned into a kind of millionaire Glastonbury: open air festivities everywhere
A crisp G&T then another walk up Primrose Hill. The yobs have gone and a cool multicultural crowd smokes excellent weed and dances to acousto-folk in floaty dresses (both sexes) (really, this seems to be a trend, I approve)
Now I am home with London's best Malaysian food on order, including Assam salmon curry and Sawi Goreng
Possibly the best day since the sylvan idylls of Lockdown 1
Andrew Neil made it clear that won't be GB News...its not a rolling news channel. It is channel of news / current affairs shows, think the likes of Rachel Maddow or Sean Hannity.
Oh dear, the pictures and sound are out of sync...
A string of cliches that Andrew Neil could have recorded (and synchronised) months ago. If he doesn't get on with it, I'm switching to Antiques Roadshow.
Oh dear, the pictures and sound are out of sync...
A string of cliches that Andrew Neil could have recorded (and synchronised) months ago. If he doesn't get on with it, I'm switching to Antiques Roadshow.
If he fulfills his promises Sky and BBC will have real competition
Hopefully GB News will be an alternative to the constant doom-mongering of both Sky News and BBC News channel.
Andrew Neil in a recent interview said rolling news is failed concept and GB News isn't looking to compete with them. If you want to know about breaking news, GB News isn't the place to go.
AntifaBook.com @JackPosobiec Trudeau overheard telling staffers he expects Kamala Harris to be President by the end of 2022 per WH official attending G7
Oh dear, the pictures and sound are out of sync...
A string of cliches that Andrew Neil could have recorded (and synchronised) months ago. If he doesn't get on with it, I'm switching to Antiques Roadshow.
GB News has a name and logo that looks like every early 2000's sci fi alien invasion and/or disaster movie breaking news mockup before they realised they could get the BBC logo and font (or CNN) if they paid enough.
If he fulfills his promises Sky and BBC will have real competition
Hopefully GB News will be an alternative to the constant doom-mongering of both Sky News and BBC News channel.
Andrew Neil in a recent interview said rolling news is failed concept and GB News isn't looking to compete with them. If you want to know about breaking news, GB News isn't the place to go.
More importantly, covering breaking news is expensive. Much cheaper to have talking heads in a studio as your backbone.
Got GB News now on Freeview channel 236. Never occurred to me that I would have to re-scan first. Would have been nice to know that in advance.
You always have to rescan freeview everytime they muck about with channels, either renumbering or adding channels. Some devices warn you that a rescan is needed.
Comments
i) Don't create new variants. That can be achieved by having a high level of vaccinations amongst the population, even if the vaccinations are not sterlising.
ii) Don't overwhelm the health service. This can be achieved by having high levels of vax amongst the more vulnerable. We got here a while ago in the UK.
Lockdowns simply delay the path to herd immunity, which must be created through a combination of infection and vaccination. After the more vulnerable have had the opportunity to be vaccinated is it right to still have restrictions on everyone, particularly as quite soon every adult will have had the opportunity to be single vaxxed. I fear the zero covidians wish to get the number of cases down to zero sans herd immunity. That's not a permanent solution.
Noise?
I had a day out with my wife and her brothers family yesterday followed by a takeaway at our place.
We went to the zoo and there were loads of couples and families just enjoying life
Today I watched the footie and bunch of fans singing their hears out and living life followed by a wonderful walk through some woods with my dog in the glorious sunshine.
A very welcome change and a lift to my spirits
https://twitter.com/sarahrainsford/status/1403992787276767233
meanwhile, Moscow records 7704 new cases & 1573 people admitted to hospital
these figures are back at peak levels last seen in december & likely to climb as ppl are not getting vaccinated
new restrictions just re-introduced incl 2300 curfew for bars, parks 'only for walking in'
This time Ukraine Asian Handicap +1.5 @1.65
We’ll see
That was 11 years ago and I’m not sure much has changed.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says COVID is a bioweapon because God would never create a fatal illness that harms people https://t.co/fAiPkTCJw3
Gen Lecointre would step down to avoid being dragged into a political debate before next year’s presidential election.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-francois-lecointre-quits-as-head-of-frances-armed-forces-srpp2xwzx
They were discussing this on the commentary when he came on. A bit of a character.
If Netanyahu can retain the leadership of his own party then we may not necessarily have seen the back of him for very long.
My parents are nearby, in Rutland (town famous for the school), and apart from a prison outbreak they’ve had one of the lowest rates in the country. Amazing how two places so close geographically can have such different experiences.
a) Football
b) Israel
c) Lockdown
d) G7
Note that (c) and (d) could have been written on Friday so barely qualify as news.
When, ooops, if, he is found guilty and safely locked away, more negotiations can be found on a way forward, perhaps via yet another round of elections.
The key thing is, despite his best efforts to cause war and chaos to hang on, the bastard is gone. At last.
This brilliantly talented team - humble enough to KNEEL for social justice - will, I predict, unite the nation, and it will nobly march on to triumph
It’s also worth pointing out that Netanyahu is by any reasonable definition a fascist, so you proposed a false dichotomy. It’s not Chirac vs. Le Pen.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57457384
https://www.gbnews.uk/
Trump, 2020:
Germany 10%
France 11%
Italy 16%
Sweden 15%
Canada 20%
United Kingdom 19%
South Korea 17%
Japan 25%
Biden, 2021:
Germany 78%
France 74%
Italy 75%
Sweden 85%
Canada 77%
United Kingdom 72%
South Korea 67%
Japan 73%
Stream is stuttering a bit though, they’d have been better off with youtube.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/MAGAZINE-naftali-bennett-israeli-pm-benjamin-netanyahu-ousted-yair-lapid-1.9864203
Comes across as a bit of a Boris Johnson style chameleon, but much wealthier.
Not a good start but time will tell
Synchronisation resolved now
Picnic with old friends in Green Park. Plentiful Greek white wine
Stroll home through happy singing English people wandering around Mayfair, which seems to have turned into a kind of millionaire Glastonbury: open air festivities everywhere
A crisp G&T then another walk up Primrose Hill. The yobs have gone and a cool multicultural crowd smokes excellent weed and dances to acousto-folk in floaty dresses (both sexes) (really, this seems to be a trend, I approve)
Now I am home with London's best Malaysian food on order, including Assam salmon curry and Sawi Goreng
Possibly the best day since the sylvan idylls of Lockdown 1
You are a class poster but you really were a bit of dick about that, weren’t you?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-55146906
AntifaBook.com
@JackPosobiec
Trudeau overheard telling staffers he expects Kamala Harris to be President by the end of 2022 per WH official attending G7
Dull.