Out of interest, anyone on here do telecoms for a living? I was wondering whether, if the lions’ share of those who can do so work from home, the residential network will cope?
Some services for collaborative stuff might break, but there are plenty of alternative options. Network capacity itself should be fine - at worst people might need to watch youtube cat videos at 720p rather than Ultra-HD.
Out of interest, anyone on here do telecoms for a living? I was wondering whether, if the lions’ share of those who can do so work from home, the residential network will cope?
Generally yes, although there may be some local issues in smaller villages with limited bandwidth, and some ISPs will need to adjust their load-balancing in favour of residential rather than business customers during working days. The bigger issue will come if everyone 'working from home' start streaming Netflix all day.
Thanks for the answers everyone, though you have destroyed my hopes of an excuse to do sod all.
Ch4 News reported that a UK company have a 10 min test, which will all be able to in Pharmacies from next week. Although, it seems initially it will just to test pharmacy staff, but plan is within next 3 weeks to the public.
So a question for all you psychology types out there in PB land.
Does Trump actually believe the BS he spouts - I mean the real obvious outright falsehoods - or is he just plain old fashioned lying.
Mad or Bad?
Both of course could be the answer.
Neither is not an acceptable response.
He is a dangerous narcissist who blusters and hasn't a clue in what he is saying
There is a very interesting book on Trust, of which truthfulness is of course a major component. Basically, trust is the default human condition, as we need, as social animals, to rely on others to survive, and trust is the sine qua non of cooperation. I have to trust that, if I help you now, you'll help me in like manner later.
Thus mutual assistance relies on people being both trusting, and trustworthy (and being truthful as a part of that).
However, unlike our hunter gatherer forebears in whom these mechanisms of social cooperation evolved, modern homo sapiens can accrue sufficient wealth to no longer, in many ways, have to depend on others. Thus, and this has been documented, truly wealthy people are both less trusting and less trustworthy - they don't need to be. So they have less need to be truthful. It is just is not that important to them.
Obviously, one cannot generalize for all individuals and there will be a bellcurve like distribution of how marked this tendency is across individuals. Trump clearly is at the outlier end of the curve.
@TimT, ages ago (at least a couple of years, possibly 5 or more!) we were having a discussion about game theory and you asked if I knew any good reference works that covered a fairly niche topic (an analysis of situations where "burning money" to reduce the value of certain options to you can actually be advantageous, IIRC). Anyway, I didn't find one, but while brushing up on my game theory recently I saw a reference to a book which sounds absolutely up your street professionally! "Compliance Quantified" (1996, Cambridge University Press) by Rudolf Avenhaus, University of the Federal Armed Forces, Hamburg, and Morton John Canty, Juelich Research Center.
It's a mathematically fairly dense, operational research/game theoretic approach to arms control verification. Quite possible that you're either very well aware of it, or the content is old hat by now, but to a non-specialist on biochemical/nuclear proliferation, the excerpts I can see in Google Books look very interesting!
Thanks much. I was not aware of this work, so will have to check it out.
No problem. I think we are all extremely grateful for the technical expertise and fascinating professional experience that you generously share on PB!
My wife is a teacher. She has really struggled with motivating herself to do all the pathetic garbage at school which even at the best of times is pathetic garbage. We are hoping the education establishment sees sense
Blimey. We are having multiple religious experiences right now. That’s asking for a miracle on a par with the raising of Lazarus.
If you've seen Ofsted's statement to Schoolsweek this afternoon, I wouldn't be optimistic. It's shameful stuff.
Policy papers are supposed to be clear and straightforward. Do you want to beat around the bush so there could be confusion?
The point is Charles it is not even a question that should arise for so many reasons. It is not the clarity that is at fault, it is the basic premise.
Given that schools are vectors for just about every virus that crops up, and there is no WFH for teachers, keeping them open, at a time the government is pursuing ‘herd immunity’ via infection, puts teachers directly in the firing line without choice.
If I were a teacher over the age of fifty, I’d be seriously pissed off, to put it mildly.
To be fair, today's announcements are a dramatic improvement on what's happened in the USA up until now, which was on a scale from denial to apathy.
This was my favorite comment on that thread:
"Has it ever occurred to you soap-and-hand-sanitizer hoarders that it is actually in your best health interest to allow the other people in your community to wash their hands as well?"
The Dow rose 9.4% on Trump's speech. That is very similar to the drop last time. Both speeches were similar so why the difference in response?
The drop last time must have been very embarrassing for Trump and he's probably taken steps to ensure it didn't happen this time. It will be interesting to see who the purchasers were during his speech. It's obviously big money to move the market that way. I suspect it is coordinated corporate share buybacks.
Share buybacks don’t move prices
It depends whether it is off market from institutions or on market with the intention of moving prices.
To be fair, today's announcements are a dramatic improvement on what's happened in the USA up until now, which was on a scale from denial to apathy.
Perhaps. They've said several previous times that they were only a short period away from a million tests being available and it hasn't happened. Might be best to reserve judgement until they start publishing test numbers that show a substantial increase in the rate of testing.
Out of interest, anyone on here do telecoms for a living? I was wondering whether, if the lions’ share of those who can do so work from home, the residential network will cope?
Some services for collaborative stuff might break, but there are plenty of alternative options. Network capacity itself should be fine - at worst people might need to watch youtube cat videos at 720p rather than Ultra-HD.
Braemar update: having been refused port at the Bahamas, the ship is still offshore there while the captain tries to negotiate disembarkation for his passengers. I guess a key consideration is that the Americans on board won’t want to be dropped back in Europe.
Simple solution: drop them off at an exciting island destination where there's also nobody else to infect. I've heard that South Georgia is lovely at this time of year.
Well I need to rethink our daily routine tomorrow am limited to the pharmacy, supermarket and petroleum station. Can’t paddle on the beach but may be allowed to walk on the prom. It is the right approach very few in disagreement even though we have less cases than London. Just need to keep the pressure off the hospitals and try to avoid mass infections in a community of many over 70’s Goodnight, sleep tight and keep the information flowing from around the world.
The Dow rose 9.4% on Trump's speech. That is very similar to the drop last time. Both speeches were similar so why the difference in response?
The drop last time must have been very embarrassing for Trump and he's probably taken steps to ensure it didn't happen this time. It will be interesting to see who the purchasers were during his speech. It's obviously big money to move the market that way. I suspect it is coordinated corporate share buybacks.
Share buybacks don’t move prices
It depends whether it is off market from institutions or on market with the intention of moving prices.
To be fair, today's announcements are a dramatic improvement on what's happened in the USA up until now, which was on a scale from denial to apathy.
This was my favorite comment on that thread:
"Has it ever occurred to you soap-and-hand-sanitizer hoarders that it is actually in your best health interest to allow the other people in your community to wash their hands as well?"
Out of interest, anyone on here do telecoms for a living? I was wondering whether, if the lions’ share of those who can do so work from home, the residential network will cope?
Some services for collaborative stuff might break, but there are plenty of alternative options. Network capacity itself should be fine - at worst people might need to watch youtube cat videos at 720p rather than Ultra-HD.
Out of interest, anyone on here do telecoms for a living? I was wondering whether, if the lions’ share of those who can do so work from home, the residential network will cope?
Generally yes, although there may be some local issues in smaller villages with limited bandwidth, and some ISPs will need to adjust their load-balancing in favour of residential rather than business customers during working days. The bigger issue will come if everyone 'working from home' start streaming Netflix all day.
Actually the problem is not necessarily the telecoms network. Many organisations assume that only a proportion of staff work from home at any one time. I'm aware of one large organisation that has laptops for all its staff but only VPN capacity for 25% of them and it's probably not unusual.
Ch4 News reported that a UK company have a 10 min test, which will all be able to in Pharmacies from next week. Although, it seems initially it will just to test pharmacy staff, but plan is within next 3 weeks to the public.
Great news. Now let’s flog it around the world.
Apparently there are 15 companies doing this.
Again, makes head scratching why UK government appears to have decided testing isn't a good idea. Even if they think it is wasting resources to have nurses do it, could we not have drive up and use of this staffed by others. This is the South Korea approach. You get one of these quick ones done, and if you are positive you get funnelled into the system.
I think you have to consider the measures as part of the whole strategy, rather than in isolation.
If you decline to ask people to cancel events - like gigs at the Osaka live house which was a *huge* cause of the domestic spread in Japan - then continue testing so people know how the virus is spreading, the voters will revolt, because they'll keep noticing that their relatives are dying because the government didn't ask people to cancel events.
I can’t see that enough people are going to get it in one pass without risking health service capacity. My assumption is that we will need to go through one or more quarantines, unless we do miraculously well in keeping all elderly and ill people locked up indoors until the summer.
To be fair, today's announcements are a dramatic improvement on what's happened in the USA up until now, which was on a scale from denial to apathy.
This was my favorite comment on that thread:
"Has it ever occurred to you soap-and-hand-sanitizer hoarders that it is actually in your best health interest to allow the other people in your community to wash their hands as well?"
Prisoner's dilemma, innit? Everyone has hand sanitizer is best, but I have it and my neighbour doesn't is better than vice versa.
To be fair, today's announcements are a dramatic improvement on what's happened in the USA up until now, which was on a scale from denial to apathy.
Perhaps. They've said several previous times that they were only a short period away from a million tests being available and it hasn't happened. Might be best to reserve judgement until they start publishing test numbers that show a substantial increase in the rate of testing.
According to that California symposium which I posted the notes from this morning, the problem isn’t the number of test kits, but the processing capacity of the US labs.
My wife is a teacher. She has really struggled with motivating herself to do all the pathetic garbage at school which even at the best of times is pathetic garbage. We are hoping the education establishment sees sense
Blimey. We are having multiple religious experiences right now. That’s asking for a miracle on a par with the raising of Lazarus.
If you've seen Ofsted's statement to Schoolsweek this afternoon, I wouldn't be optimistic. It's shameful stuff.
Policy papers are supposed to be clear and straightforward. Do you want to beat around the bush so there could be confusion?
The point is Charles it is not even a question that should arise for so many reasons. It is not the clarity that is at fault, it is the basic premise.
Given that schools are vectors for just about every virus that crops up, and there is no WFH for teachers, keeping them open, at a time the government is pursuing ‘herd immunity’ via infection, puts teachers directly in the firing line without choice.
If I were a teacher over the age of fifty, I’d be seriously pissed off, to put it mildly.
I thought some private schools at least were planning to teach via video streaming in he same way as most universities. Though universities have other problems if foreign students dont come back for a year
The Dow rose 9.4% on Trump's speech. That is very similar to the drop last time. Both speeches were similar so why the difference in response?
The drop last time must have been very embarrassing for Trump and he's probably taken steps to ensure it didn't happen this time. It will be interesting to see who the purchasers were during his speech. It's obviously big money to move the market that way. I suspect it is coordinated corporate share buybacks.
Share buybacks don’t move prices
It depends whether it is off market from institutions or on market with the intention of moving prices.
You couldn’t do that without it being seen
That's why I said " It will be interesting to see who the purchasers were during his speech."
So a question for all you psychology types out there in PB land.
Does Trump actually believe the BS he spouts - I mean the real obvious outright falsehoods - or is he just plain old fashioned lying.
Mad or Bad?
Both of course could be the answer.
Neither is not an acceptable response.
It is probably a mix of both, but the main issue is perception - something we all have to deal with. For a narcissist, their perception is that whatever goes wrong is not their fault or must be blamed on someone else. By ignoring their own mistakes and projecting them on to other people, a narcissist can maintain the self-image that is so important to them.
Most of us exhibit similar behaviours, but most of us also possess enough insight to see that we can be wrong too and not everything can be blamed on others. Those who cannot perform this valuable self-criticism will not back down. Someone else will be the fall guy.
Out of interest, anyone on here do telecoms for a living? I was wondering whether, if the lions’ share of those who can do so work from home, the residential network will cope?
Some services for collaborative stuff might break, but there are plenty of alternative options. Network capacity itself should be fine - at worst people might need to watch youtube cat videos at 720p rather than Ultra-HD.
Out of interest, anyone on here do telecoms for a living? I was wondering whether, if the lions’ share of those who can do so work from home, the residential network will cope?
Some services for collaborative stuff might break, but there are plenty of alternative options. Network capacity itself should be fine - at worst people might need to watch youtube cat videos at 720p rather than Ultra-HD.
I can’t see that enough people are going to get it in one pass without risking health service capacity. My assumption is that we will need to go through one or more quarantines, unless we do miraculously well in keeping all elderly and ill people locked up indoors until the summer.
Yes, I suspect that's the case - a series of smaller, diminishing humps. What the chart does do is illustrate the risk of the "total suppression now" model, whose proponents either haven't thought through "what's next", or may be over optimistic on a vaccine being ready.
Out of interest, anyone on here do telecoms for a living? I was wondering whether, if the lions’ share of those who can do so work from home, the residential network will cope?
Generally yes, although there may be some local issues in smaller villages with limited bandwidth, and some ISPs will need to adjust their load-balancing in favour of residential rather than business customers during working days. The bigger issue will come if everyone 'working from home' start streaming Netflix all day.
Actually the problem is not necessarily the telecoms network. Many organisations assume that only a proportion of staff work from home at any one time. I'm aware of one large organisation that has laptops for all its staff but only VPN capacity for 25% of them and it's probably not unusual.
Yes, issues are more likely to be for companies who don't have the incoming VPN capacity or bandwidth required when the whole office ends up working from home.
The little work I'm doing at the moment is helping companies get stuff cloud-based and scalable for this scenario.
Anyone who wants a bit more reading material to work through and is interested in "nudge"...
Here's the EAST framework (Easy - Attractive - Social - Timely) produced by the Behavioural Insights Team, that will presumably underlie a lot of the government's communication strategy during the pandemic. (It replaced the previous "MINDSPACE" approach, if anyone remembers that...)
I can’t see that enough people are going to get it in one pass without risking health service capacity. My assumption is that we will need to go through one or more quarantines, unless we do miraculously well in keeping all elderly and ill people locked up indoors until the summer.
Bear in mind that it's not just a matter of allocating the current spare capacity to the new disease, because in the first wave it will blow through the hospitals and free up beds currently occupied by large numbers of *existing* chronically ill patients, so the government's strategy is actually creating new capacity in the hospital system to cope with the next wave of the disease.
Braemar update: having been refused port at the Bahamas, the ship is still offshore there while the captain tries to negotiate disembarkation for his passengers. I guess a key consideration is that the Americans on board won’t want to be dropped back in Europe.
Simple solution: drop them off at an exciting island destination where there's also nobody else to infect. I've heard that South Georgia is lovely at this time of year.
South Georgia is magnificient at this time of year
My wife and I were there about this time 10 years ago
To be fair, today's announcements are a dramatic improvement on what's happened in the USA up until now, which was on a scale from denial to apathy.
This was my favorite comment on that thread:
"Has it ever occurred to you soap-and-hand-sanitizer hoarders that it is actually in your best health interest to allow the other people in your community to wash their hands as well?"
Had a slightly odd psychological experience on that issue this evening.
In the supermarket I saw a big pallet of carex liquid hand wash being placed on the shelves.
Now I've not seen any of that for a few days (the posh brands and bar soap have always been available) and I really, really had a yearning to buy some.
I don't need to buy any more soap as I've got plenty and as I said there is always other types available.
But I still had that yearning to buy carex liquid hand wash because I hadn't seen any for a few days.
Braemar update: having been refused port at the Bahamas, the ship is still offshore there while the captain tries to negotiate disembarkation for his passengers. I guess a key consideration is that the Americans on board won’t want to be dropped back in Europe.
Simple solution: drop them off at an exciting island destination where there's also nobody else to infect. I've heard that South Georgia is lovely at this time of year.
South Georgia is magnificient at this time of year
My wife and I were there about this time 10 years ago
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
Well I need to rethink our daily routine tomorrow am limited to the pharmacy, supermarket and petroleum station. Can’t paddle on the beach but may be allowed to walk on the prom. It is the right approach very few in disagreement even though we have less cases than London. Just need to keep the pressure off the hospitals and try to avoid mass infections in a community of many over 70’s Goodnight, sleep tight and keep the information flowing from around the world.
Have a good night and I expect this forum will be in 24 hour overdrive for months
If they want that graph to have impact then the second Asian peak in light blue needs to be bigger than the UK one.
Otherwise it looks like they're just going to get what we're going to get but much later, which will beg the question why we don't do the same*.
(*I appreciate economic damage hasn't been mapped onto this which would be lower in the UK scenario in any event)
It is poor graph, as it is difficult to understand for the layperson.
The total number of infections is the area under the graph. Assuming you believe the curves, the UK's choice is clearly better.
First, the area under the UK curve is less (even though the value at the peak is the same). And second, the UK infections are occurring in Summer, when there is a better chance of survival of an infected person.
To be fair, today's announcements are a dramatic improvement on what's happened in the USA up until now, which was on a scale from denial to apathy.
This was my favorite comment on that thread:
"Has it ever occurred to you soap-and-hand-sanitizer hoarders that it is actually in your best health interest to allow the other people in your community to wash their hands as well?"
Prisoner's dilemma, innit? Everyone has hand sanitizer is best, but I have it and my neighbour doesn't is better than vice versa.
I've not seen any hand sanitizer for over a week.
I wonder if the government is taking all of it as it is being produced.
I've got a mate who's maintenance manager at a posh country house hotel and restaurant. They just about tick over on the rooms and covers, but the big money, the money that really keeps them afloat, comes from events and weddings during the summer. They've got circa a quarter of a mill in weddings alone booked up until September. The weddings are starting to get cancelled by nervous couples. He thinks the hotel will be bust by July.
So a question for all you psychology types out there in PB land.
Does Trump actually believe the BS he spouts - I mean the real obvious outright falsehoods - or is he just plain old fashioned lying.
Mad or Bad?
Both of course could be the answer.
Neither is not an acceptable response.
It is probably a mix of both, but the main issue is perception - something we all have to deal with. For a narcissist, their perception is that whatever goes wrong is not their fault or must be blamed on someone else. By ignoring their own mistakes and projecting them on to other people, a narcissist can maintain the self-image that is so important to them.
Most of us exhibit similar behaviours, but most of us also possess enough insight to see that we can be wrong too and not everything can be blamed on others. Those who cannot perform this valuable self-criticism will not back down. Someone else will be the fall guy.
Yes, the fundamental attribution error: when I make a mistake, it is because of circumstances; when you make a mistake, it's because you are a bad person, or incompetent.
Braemar update: having been refused port at the Bahamas, the ship is still offshore there while the captain tries to negotiate disembarkation for his passengers. I guess a key consideration is that the Americans on board won’t want to be dropped back in Europe.
Simple solution: drop them off at an exciting island destination where there's also nobody else to infect. I've heard that South Georgia is lovely at this time of year.
South Georgia is magnificient at this time of year
My wife and I were there about this time 10 years ago
I was there about nine years ago.
Paying respects to Shackleton.
As we did.
Our cruise to Antartica, South Georgia and the Falklands was named after Shackletons epic escape
I've got a mate who's maintenance manager at a posh country house hotel and restaurant. They just about tick over on the rooms and covers, but the big money, the money that really keeps them afloat, comes from events and weddings during the summer. They've got circa a quarter of a mill in weddings alone booked up until September. The weddings are starting to get cancelled by nervous couples. He thinks the hotel will be bust by July.
Horrendous times for anyone in tourism and hospitality. Friends have a local coffee shop, and the customers have disappeared.
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
Colchester - and yes its a fairly big one.
They even took every pack bar one of Wotsits .............
I think that and related questions are why Boris has been slow to be the one to ban things/close things/stop things. He is letting them do it themselves so he is not the one who has to make the call to start them up again.
To be fair, today's announcements are a dramatic improvement on what's happened in the USA up until now, which was on a scale from denial to apathy.
This was my favorite comment on that thread:
"Has it ever occurred to you soap-and-hand-sanitizer hoarders that it is actually in your best health interest to allow the other people in your community to wash their hands as well?"
Had a slightly odd psychological experience on that issue this evening.
In the supermarket I saw a big pallet of carex liquid hand wash being placed on the shelves.
Now I've not seen any of that for a few days (the posh brands and bar soap have always been available) and I really, really had a yearning to buy some.
I don't need to buy any more soap as I've got plenty and as I said there is always other types available.
But I still had that yearning to buy carex liquid hand wash because I hadn't seen any for a few days.
I didn't though.
LOL. Robert Cialdini's 6 weapons of influence: Reciprocation Commitment & Consistency Social Proof Liking Authority Scarcity
I think that and related questions are why Boris has been slow to be the one to ban things/close things/stop things. He is letting them do it themselves so he is not the one who has to make the call to start them up again.
Out of interest, anyone on here do telecoms for a living? I was wondering whether, if the lions’ share of those who can do so work from home, the residential network will cope?
Generally yes, although there may be some local issues in smaller villages with limited bandwidth, and some ISPs will need to adjust their load-balancing in favour of residential rather than business customers during working days. The bigger issue will come if everyone 'working from home' start streaming Netflix all day.
Actually the problem is not necessarily the telecoms network. Many organisations assume that only a proportion of staff work from home at any one time. I'm aware of one large organisation that has laptops for all its staff but only VPN capacity for 25% of them and it's probably not unusual.
Yes, issues are more likely to be for companies who don't have the incoming VPN capacity or bandwidth required when the whole office ends up working from home.
The little work I'm doing at the moment is helping companies get stuff cloud-based and scalable for this scenario.
My employer really seems to have thought about this as they waited to upgrade equipment before sending us all to WAH.
We were taken a bit by surprise as we expected this in a couple of weeks
I've got a mate who's maintenance manager at a posh country house hotel and restaurant. They just about tick over on the rooms and covers, but the big money, the money that really keeps them afloat, comes from events and weddings during the summer. They've got circa a quarter of a mill in weddings alone booked up until September. The weddings are starting to get cancelled by nervous couples. He thinks the hotel will be bust by July.
Horrendous times for anyone in tourism and hospitality. Friends have a local coffee shop, and the customers have disappeared.
I've got a friend with a little restaurant out in the mountains, it seats about 10 people in a teensy little wooden cabin. Since coro-chan showed up it's been permanently packed...
I've got a mate who's maintenance manager at a posh country house hotel and restaurant. They just about tick over on the rooms and covers, but the big money, the money that really keeps them afloat, comes from events and weddings during the summer. They've got circa a quarter of a mill in weddings alone booked up until September. The weddings are starting to get cancelled by nervous couples. He thinks the hotel will be bust by July.
Horrendous times for anyone in tourism and hospitality. Friends have a local coffee shop, and the customers have disappeared.
I've got a friend with a little restaurant out in the mountains, it seats about 10 people in a teensy little wooden cabin. Since coro-chan showed up it's been permanently packed...
I got me a car, it's as big as a whale And we're headin' on down to the love shack I got me a Chrysler, it seats about twenty So hurry up and bring your jukebox money
I think that and related questions are why Boris has been slow to be the one to ban things/close things/stop things. He is letting them do it themselves so he is not the one who has to make the call to start them up again.
And it is working.
Slower than it should have, and loads of people with stupid bosses are still working at the office because the PM won't lead. The optimistic case for the UK is that it ends up doing basically the same as Japan, because everybody ignores the government.
To be fair, today's announcements are a dramatic improvement on what's happened in the USA up until now, which was on a scale from denial to apathy.
This was my favorite comment on that thread:
"Has it ever occurred to you soap-and-hand-sanitizer hoarders that it is actually in your best health interest to allow the other people in your community to wash their hands as well?"
Prisoner's dilemma, innit? Everyone has hand sanitizer is best, but I have it and my neighbour doesn't is better than vice versa.
I've not seen any hand sanitizer for over a week.
I wonder if the government is taking all of it as it is being produced.
Soap has sodium stearate which should be sufficient to break down the lipid coat of the coronavirus.
Ch4 News reported that a UK company have a 10 min test, which will all be able to in Pharmacies from next week. Although, it seems initially it will just to test pharmacy staff, but plan is within next 3 weeks to the public.
Great news. Now let’s flog it around the world.
Apparently there are 15 companies doing this.
Again, makes head scratching why UK government appears to have decided testing isn't a good idea. Even if they think it is wasting resources to have nurses do it, could we not have drive up and use of this staffed by others. This is the South Korea approach. You get one of these quick ones done, and if you are positive you get funnelled into the system.
If you test then results will come back positive. The more people publicly known to be infected the increased pressure to do something.
Testing will be scaled back to a bare minimum now.
Ch4 News reported that a UK company have a 10 min test, which will all be able to in Pharmacies from next week. Although, it seems initially it will just to test pharmacy staff, but plan is within next 3 weeks to the public.
Great news. Now let’s flog it around the world.
Apparently there are 15 companies doing this.
Again, makes head scratching why UK government appears to have decided testing isn't a good idea. Even if they think it is wasting resources to have nurses do it, could we not have drive up and use of this staffed by others. This is the South Korea approach. You get one of these quick ones done, and if you are positive you get funnelled into the system.
You’d think that “more data” would be useful to our “science-led” approach??
Do you not think it would be counterproductive (politically) to the govt approach to increase testing and have numbers go through the roof?
The ideal would be lots of private testing. Maybe they’re doing it...
Had a slightly odd psychological experience on that issue this evening.
In the supermarket I saw a big pallet of carex liquid hand wash being placed on the shelves.
Now I've not seen any of that for a few days (the posh brands and bar soap have always been available) and I really, really had a yearning to buy some.
I don't need to buy any more soap as I've got plenty and as I said there is always other types available.
But I still had that yearning to buy carex liquid hand wash because I hadn't seen any for a few days.
I didn't though.
What gets me is that shelves are bare of soap in dispenser bottles, and the empty shelves are right next door to shelves full of shower gel, body wash, and bath oils, all of which would be just as good for cleaning your hands. Shampoo and conditioner are in good supply still, and even washing up liquid will do if needed.
This is very strange. The government briefed the media big announcement in parliament Wedneday night, nothing, then Times / Newsnight on Wednesday were briefed night mass gatherings were getting banned, then nothing, now they are to be banned.
The Dow rose 9.4% on Trump's speech. That is very similar to the drop last time. Both speeches were similar so why the difference in response?
The drop last time must have been very embarrassing for Trump and he's probably taken steps to ensure it didn't happen this time. It will be interesting to see who the purchasers were during his speech. It's obviously big money to move the market that way. I suspect it is coordinated corporate share buybacks.
Share buybacks don’t move prices
It depends whether it is off market from institutions or on market with the intention of moving prices.
You couldn’t do that without it being seen
That's why I said " It will be interesting to see who the purchasers were during his speech."
I was responding to “I suspect it is coordinated corporate share buybacks”
The strange euphoria of a disruption to the norm seems everywhere. At some deep level we actually enjoy things being "different" to the familiar, the reassuring, the mundane.
I understand the Government's approach to this - for much of the population it makes sense but for those with pre-existing health conditions or others who are vulnerable it's scant reassurance. Who is going to look after the homeless for example who must be at greater risk?
There seems a shifting of decision-making - people were, I think, expecting the Government to take some decisions about what to do but in the absence of that organisations have discovered their own authority which is also welcome - we shouldn't rely on Government to bottle, feed and change us.
I've already mentioned my concerns for those with pre-existing health conditions - my other concern is the viability and reliability of transport services if significant numbers of key personnel self-isolate. It doesn't take a lot of sick tube or train drivers to cripple the service for everyone.
I don't know about the long-term economic impact - the short to medium term looks nasty and there may be very little the Government can do if economic activity is involuntarily and significantly curtailed.
To be fair, today's announcements are a dramatic improvement on what's happened in the USA up until now, which was on a scale from denial to apathy.
This was my favorite comment on that thread:
"Has it ever occurred to you soap-and-hand-sanitizer hoarders that it is actually in your best health interest to allow the other people in your community to wash their hands as well?"
Prisoner's dilemma, innit? Everyone has hand sanitizer is best, but I have it and my neighbour doesn't is better than vice versa.
I've not seen any hand sanitizer for over a week.
I wonder if the government is taking all of it as it is being produced.
Soap has sodium stearate which should be sufficient to break down the lipid coat of the coronavirus.
Indeed, I think soap is much more effective and I have some hand sanitizer in any case (bought long ago).
But I can see that having hand sanitizer in the hospitals is more useful than in ten million personal stockpiles.
This is very strange. The government briefed the media big announcement in parliament Wedneday night, nothing, then Times / Newsnight on Wednesday were briefed night mass gatherings were getting banned, then nothing, now they are to be banned.
Scratch head.
It may *look* like the government has no idea what the fuck it's doing, but it is in fact being guided by a complicated mathematical model that you non-experts would not be able to understand
I've got a mate who's maintenance manager at a posh country house hotel and restaurant. They just about tick over on the rooms and covers, but the big money, the money that really keeps them afloat, comes from events and weddings during the summer. They've got circa a quarter of a mill in weddings alone booked up until September. The weddings are starting to get cancelled by nervous couples. He thinks the hotel will be bust by July.
Horrendous times for anyone in tourism and hospitality. Friends have a local coffee shop, and the customers have disappeared.
We've got dinner booked in town tomorrow evening and we're still going. Will be interesting to see how many other customers they have though. We were out to late breakfast at a different venue last Saturday and they were doing a very good trade, but events are moving apace right now.
You do have to wonder how bad this is all going to get and how much is going to be left of our battered town centres by the end of all this, save for the more solvent chain businesses. Hopefully a combination of Government largesse and very understanding bank managers will be enough to rescue most of these otherwise viable small firms from ruin.
Had a slightly odd psychological experience on that issue this evening.
In the supermarket I saw a big pallet of carex liquid hand wash being placed on the shelves.
Now I've not seen any of that for a few days (the posh brands and bar soap have always been available) and I really, really had a yearning to buy some.
I don't need to buy any more soap as I've got plenty and as I said there is always other types available.
But I still had that yearning to buy carex liquid hand wash because I hadn't seen any for a few days.
I didn't though.
What gets me is that shelves are bare of soap in dispenser bottles, and the empty shelves are right next door to shelves full of shower gel, body wash, and bath oils, all of which would be just as good for cleaning your hands. Shampoo and conditioner are in good supply still, and even washing up liquid will do if needed.
At my Tesco this evening you couldn't buy a single liquid soap but plenty of cheap bars of soap on the shelves.
I think that and related questions are why Boris has been slow to be the one to ban things/close things/stop things. He is letting them do it themselves so he is not the one who has to make the call to start them up again.
And it is working.
Slower than it should have, and loads of people with stupid bosses are still working at the office because the PM won't lead. The optimistic case for the UK is that it ends up doing basically the same as Japan, because everybody ignores the government.
I do not accept that.
Boris stark warning this week has really cut through and everyone seems to be talking about safeguarding themselves and of course sport worldwide has been cancelled in the last few days and in so doing attendances. I expect the grand national to be cancelled
And each week the schools are open ten of thousands carry on earning without total disruption to their lives
Boris following advice is spot on.
Can you imagine if he had called it against the advice. No I do not accept your view on this
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
I went to my Sainsbury's this lunch time.....it was like a war zone...still I managed to source some Pringles, spinach, garlic and wine
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
I went to my Sainsbury's this lunch time.....it was like a war zone...still I managed to source some Pringles, spinach, garlic and wine
Had a slightly odd psychological experience on that issue this evening.
In the supermarket I saw a big pallet of carex liquid hand wash being placed on the shelves.
Now I've not seen any of that for a few days (the posh brands and bar soap have always been available) and I really, really had a yearning to buy some.
I don't need to buy any more soap as I've got plenty and as I said there is always other types available.
But I still had that yearning to buy carex liquid hand wash because I hadn't seen any for a few days.
I didn't though.
What gets me is that shelves are bare of soap in dispenser bottles, and the empty shelves are right next door to shelves full of shower gel, body wash, and bath oils, all of which would be just as good for cleaning your hands. Shampoo and conditioner are in good supply still, and even washing up liquid will do if needed.
At my Tesco this evening you couldn't buy a single liquid soap but plenty of cheap bars of soap on the shelves.
People have been conditioned by advertising to believe that having a dispenser, a "kills 99.9% of bacteria" label, and costing 2-3x the price means it's more hygenic.
Plans to close off Catalonia have been announced by the northeastern Spanish region’s president, Quim Torra, who called on the central government to help by authorising the closure of ports, airports and railways.
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
I went to my Sainsbury's this lunch time.....it was like a war zone...still I managed to source some Pringles, spinach, garlic and wine
Had a slightly odd psychological experience on that issue this evening.
In the supermarket I saw a big pallet of carex liquid hand wash being placed on the shelves.
Now I've not seen any of that for a few days (the posh brands and bar soap have always been available) and I really, really had a yearning to buy some.
I don't need to buy any more soap as I've got plenty and as I said there is always other types available.
But I still had that yearning to buy carex liquid hand wash because I hadn't seen any for a few days.
I didn't though.
What gets me is that shelves are bare of soap in dispenser bottles, and the empty shelves are right next door to shelves full of shower gel, body wash, and bath oils, all of which would be just as good for cleaning your hands. Shampoo and conditioner are in good supply still, and even washing up liquid will do if needed.
At my Tesco this evening you couldn't buy a single liquid soap but plenty of cheap bars of soap on the shelves.
Ironic, given all those people prepared to work themselves into a lather.....
I think that and related questions are why Boris has been slow to be the one to ban things/close things/stop things. He is letting them do it themselves so he is not the one who has to make the call to start them up again.
And it is working.
Slower than it should have, and loads of people with stupid bosses are still working at the office because the PM won't lead. The optimistic case for the UK is that it ends up doing basically the same as Japan, because everybody ignores the government.
I do not accept that.
Boris stark warning this week has really cut through and everyone seems to be talking about safeguarding themselves and of course sport worldwide has been cancelled in the last few days and in so doing attendances. I expect the grand national to be cancelled
And each week the schools are open ten of thousands carry on earning without total disruption to their lives
Boris following advice is spot on.
Can you imagine if he had called it against the advice. No I do not accept your view on this
You hear the advice you want to through the prism of your ideology....
Do you think a Labour PM- more statist, likely to believe that the state can be a power for good, more rooted in public services....was likely do what Boris did?
So my exams have officially been cancelled and replaced with “e-exams” or “coursework”. Be interesting to see how this affects grades...
I dearly hope that the same happens to mine. In two of my modules a particularly enterprising student could put together a few excel documents to do the vast majority of the work for them.
Schools are preparing for an extended Easter holiday, Camilla Turner reports, with headteachers having been summoned to speak to ministers about emergency plans.
I think that and related questions are why Boris has been slow to be the one to ban things/close things/stop things. He is letting them do it themselves so he is not the one who has to make the call to start them up again.
And it is working.
Slower than it should have, and loads of people with stupid bosses are still working at the office because the PM won't lead. The optimistic case for the UK is that it ends up doing basically the same as Japan, because everybody ignores the government.
I do not accept that.
Boris stark warning this week has really cut through and everyone seems to be talking about safeguarding themselves and of course sport worldwide has been cancelled in the last few days and in so doing attendances. I expect the grand national to be cancelled
And each week the schools are open ten of thousands carry on earning without total disruption to their lives
Boris following advice is spot on.
Can you imagine if he had called it against the advice. No I do not accept your view on this
You hear the advice you want to through the prism of your ideology....
Do you think a Labour PM- more statist, likely to believe that the state can be a power for good, more rooted in public services....was likely do what Boris did?
I think a Labour PM would have followed the advice of his CMO and CSO.
I think that and related questions are why Boris has been slow to be the one to ban things/close things/stop things. He is letting them do it themselves so he is not the one who has to make the call to start them up again.
And it is working.
Slower than it should have, and loads of people with stupid bosses are still working at the office because the PM won't lead. The optimistic case for the UK is that it ends up doing basically the same as Japan, because everybody ignores the government.
I do not accept that.
Boris stark warning this week has really cut through and everyone seems to be talking about safeguarding themselves and of course sport worldwide has been cancelled in the last few days and in so doing attendances. I expect the grand national to be cancelled
And each week the schools are open ten of thousands carry on earning without total disruption to their lives
Boris following advice is spot on.
Can you imagine if he had called it against the advice. No I do not accept your view on this
You hear the advice you want to through the prism of your ideology....
Do you think a Labour PM- more statist, likely to believe that the state can be a power for good, more rooted in public services....was likely do what Boris did?
I think a Labour PM would have followed the advice of his CMO and CSO.
I even think Jeremy Corbyn would have.
And that is to their credit.
I would be more worried about the likes of McDonnell using it as an opportunity to nationalize loads of stuff.
There are going to be loads of businesses that are going to require government assistance and we know Jonny Mao would love nothing more than to bring them into state ownership.
Comments
EDIT: Ooops - wrong forum!
If I were a teacher over the age of fifty, I’d be seriously pissed off, to put it mildly.
This was my favorite comment on that thread:
"Has it ever occurred to you soap-and-hand-sanitizer hoarders that it is actually in your best health interest to allow the other people in your community to wash their hands as well?"
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1238575983999037440
Cases up 510 to 2,207
Deaths up 7 to 48
If you decline to ask people to cancel events - like gigs at the Osaka live house which was a *huge* cause of the domestic spread in Japan - then continue testing so people know how the virus is spreading, the voters will revolt, because they'll keep noticing that their relatives are dying because the government didn't ask people to cancel events.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsV_PJ3txn8
Otherwise it looks like they're just going to get what we're going to get but much later, which will beg the question why we don't do the same*.
(*I appreciate economic damage hasn't been mapped onto this which would be lower in the UK scenario in any event)
Most of us exhibit similar behaviours, but most of us also possess enough insight to see that we can be wrong too and not everything can be blamed on others. Those who cannot perform this valuable self-criticism will not back down. Someone else will be the fall guy.
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
82 cases, 2 deaths.
The little work I'm doing at the moment is helping companies get stuff cloud-based and scalable for this scenario.
Here's the EAST framework (Easy - Attractive - Social - Timely) produced by the Behavioural Insights Team, that will presumably underlie a lot of the government's communication strategy during the pandemic. (It replaced the previous "MINDSPACE" approach, if anyone remembers that...)
If you enjoyed that you might also like Strategic communication:
a behavioural approach from the Government Communication Service.
My wife and I were there about this time 10 years ago
In the supermarket I saw a big pallet of carex liquid hand wash being placed on the shelves.
Now I've not seen any of that for a few days (the posh brands and bar soap have always been available) and I really, really had a yearning to buy some.
I don't need to buy any more soap as I've got plenty and as I said there is always other types available.
But I still had that yearning to buy carex liquid hand wash because I hadn't seen any for a few days.
I didn't though.
Paying respects to Shackleton.
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
It is poor graph, as it is difficult to understand for the layperson.
The total number of infections is the area under the graph. Assuming you believe the curves, the UK's choice is clearly better.
First, the area under the UK curve is less (even though the value at the peak is the same). And second, the UK infections are occurring in Summer, when there is a better chance of survival of an infected person.
They need way better graphics to explain this.
I wonder if the government is taking all of it as it is being produced.
Our cruise to Antartica, South Georgia and the Falklands was named after Shackletons epic escape
They even took every pack bar one of Wotsits .............
Reciprocation
Commitment & Consistency
Social Proof
Liking
Authority
Scarcity
We were taken a bit by surprise as we expected this in a couple of weeks
Sounds of dismay heard all over Liverpool.
And we're headin' on down to the love shack
I got me a Chrysler, it seats about twenty
So hurry up and bring your jukebox money
Testing will be scaled back to a bare minimum now.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1238582836279627779
The ideal would be lots of private testing. Maybe they’re doing it...
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1238583321246011402
Scratch head.
The strange euphoria of a disruption to the norm seems everywhere. At some deep level we actually enjoy things being "different" to the familiar, the reassuring, the mundane.
I understand the Government's approach to this - for much of the population it makes sense but for those with pre-existing health conditions or others who are vulnerable it's scant reassurance. Who is going to look after the homeless for example who must be at greater risk?
There seems a shifting of decision-making - people were, I think, expecting the Government to take some decisions about what to do but in the absence of that organisations have discovered their own authority which is also welcome - we shouldn't rely on Government to bottle, feed and change us.
I've already mentioned my concerns for those with pre-existing health conditions - my other concern is the viability and reliability of transport services if significant numbers of key personnel self-isolate. It doesn't take a lot of sick tube or train drivers to cripple the service for everyone.
I don't know about the long-term economic impact - the short to medium term looks nasty and there may be very little the Government can do if economic activity is involuntarily and significantly curtailed.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8110729/Defiant-Friday-revellers-hit-streets-London-despite-millions-workers-staying-home-today.html
But I can see that having hand sanitizer in the hospitals is more useful than in ten million personal stockpiles.
You do have to wonder how bad this is all going to get and how much is going to be left of our battered town centres by the end of all this, save for the more solvent chain businesses. Hopefully a combination of Government largesse and very understanding bank managers will be enough to rescue most of these otherwise viable small firms from ruin.
Boris stark warning this week has really cut through and everyone seems to be talking about safeguarding themselves and of course sport worldwide has been cancelled in the last few days and in so doing attendances. I expect the grand national to be cancelled
And each week the schools are open ten of thousands carry on earning without total disruption to their lives
Boris following advice is spot on.
Can you imagine if he had called it against the advice. No I do not accept your view on this
I suspect it puts an end to the 75th Anniversay of Victory in Europe stuff too.
Do you think a Labour PM- more statist, likely to believe that the state can be a power for good, more rooted in public services....was likely do what Boris did?
I even think Jeremy Corbyn would have.
And that is to their credit.
There are going to be loads of businesses that are going to require government assistance and we know Jonny Mao would love nothing more than to bring them into state ownership.