For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
If a million people have it, tens of millions will have it the following week.
Not sure the herd immunity is planned to be achieved in one go. It is a multi year strategy. It is still true that the more that are immune before the first winter, the better.
That would make more sense from the numbers, not heard a govt source suggest it yet though. Perhaps too depressing.
Both egg-heads have said they think it is more likely than not a seasonal disease now, but they fear a huge second wave hitting us in the Autumn.
Song of the day: When the Wild Wind Blows by Iron Maiden
Have you heard what they said on the news today Have you heard what is coming to us all? That the world as we know it will be coming to an end Have you heard, have you heard?
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
I went to my Sainsbury's this lunch time.....it was like a war zone...still I managed to source some Pringles, spinach, garlic and wine
Maybe it's something weird about Sainsbury's?!?!
Insanesbury's....
Worse in madsda.
Wait til we've all been co-oped up for weeks on end....
I won't be Budgen from the sofa.
Wait until you go a Lidl bit stir crazy....
Spending Aldi at home
But wait! Rose's will get lots of attention from locked down gardeners.
I'm genuinely caught in two minds which was more terrifying - Threads, or When The Wind Blows?
Right now is not the time to rewatch and decide...
Threads is so bleak, even watching it as an adult I was freaked out.
Apparently Reagan was deeply troubled by the US equivalent 'The Day After' which is very tame compared to Threads.
The thing about Threads is it's a downer, but you know all along - because they rub this in so you're left in no doubt at any point - that it's a downer. You are never under any illusion that "oh, this is nice, at least everything's going to get better from this point". Whereas When The Wind Blows is all Raymond Briggs children's-picture-book animation with a lovely old couple in a quaint house who could be your favourite aunt and uncle, and moments of human warmth and nostalgia and humour and optimism, but you're also completely aware (even when they aren't) that they're dying a hideous death while having been lied to successively by their politicians, jingoistic newspapers and even British culture's patriotic, un-self-critical self-image and "we'll muddle through" mentality. Although it's "just a cartoon", The tone of When The Wind Blows sucks you into a more traumatising emotional journey and I thought the political satire and cultural critique in it was more cutting. Threads is grisly, but for me I mostly found it a series of grisly practicalities.
Anyone want to pass comment on the original Survivors ("It concerns the plight of a group of people who have survived an apocalyptic plague pandemic, which was accidentally released by a Chinese scientist and quickly spread across the world via air travel. Referred to as "The Death", the plague kills approximately 4,999 out of every 5,000 human beings on the planet within a matter of weeks of being released")?
Yes, When The Wind Blows is so upsetting. The scene where he rings his son in London, who is resigned to death, and sings 'we'll all go together when we go' is awful.
I quite fancy watching the original Day of The Triffids, in case I need to go all John Duttine in my house in the countryside. I can probably get a flamethrower from Lidl.
John Ashworth supporting the government's position despite Newsnight presenter (who?) prodding him not to.
I get the impression that the Govt have got their media strategy going. More supportive noises from newspaper editors. And now bringing their most vocal critics on board.
Edit: oops Jon ashworth the Labour health sec. mistook him for the other guy.
Their position in the league does make that decision an easy one no one can object to; but the Champion’s League spots are going to be tricky to sort out. The Man City ban may help I guess.
Liverpool's win will always be tainted.
"They didn't win it properly...."
Won't it, TSE?
They should have an asterisk next to their name on the trophy.
Song of the day: When the Wild Wind Blows by Iron Maiden
Have you heard what they said on the news today Have you heard what is coming to us all? That the world as we know it will be coming to an end Have you heard, have you heard?
I wonder also if some politicians in the “rest of Europe” who are being told to crash their economies on scientific advice may be wishing they had our advisers?
They had to crash their economies because they left it too late to do what is now happening in Britain, much of it in spite of the PM - cancelling events, working from home etc. Hopefully the British still have time to avoid going into full production-stoppage lockdown mode but there's going to be a lot of growth in the next couple of weeks before we start to see results.
So Britain’s doing pretty well then? How lucky.
Yes, it's hitting Britain later - part luck (distance from the North Italian cluster etc), and part that the early testing/containment was pretty good. It should have been in a much better position to handle it than China, then Korea, then Japan, then Italy.
But it seems like every developed country that hasn't had a previous recent fail (SARS or Crown Princess) then fails to use that time. It's particularly infuriating with the UK because we've got to watch how all these similar countries are failing, but then still insist on sticking to the old plans and failing the same way.
I wish I could fish out the article...but it tried to explain the Italian hotspot....and it just came down to bad luck...it could have been anywhere
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
I went to my Sainsbury's this lunch time.....it was like a war zone...still I managed to source some Pringles, spinach, garlic and wine
Maybe it's something weird about Sainsbury's?!?!
Insanesbury's....
Worse in madsda.
Wait til we've all been co-oped up for weeks on end....
I won't be Budgen from the sofa.
Wait until you go a Lidl bit stir crazy....
Spending Aldi at home
Mr Dancer will be happy enough. He can just morris on solidly.....
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
Yeah, it's enormously high risk. I also question the ability of the UK Govt to get to the 60% level. Things are already shutting down big time. The fact that we're so heavily service based will make it even harder.
As an economist my question for Italy's government: just how many lockdowns can you fund?
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
Yeah, it's enormously high risk. I also question the ability of the UK Govt to get to the 60% level. Things are already shutting down big time. The fact that we're so heavily service based will make it even harder.
As an economist my question for Italy's government: just how many lockdowns can you fund?
I can't see how Italy and Greece (at the very least) aren't going to need bailing out by the EU.
Song of the day: When the Wild Wind Blows by Iron Maiden
Have you heard what they said on the news today Have you heard what is coming to us all? That the world as we know it will be coming to an end Have you heard, have you heard?
I once got flown home from my holidays by Bruce Dickinson. When he introduced himself on the intercomm, I was tempted to ask if I could get off!
Have you seen what they said on the news today Have you heard what they said about us all Do you know what is happening to just every one of us Have you heard, have you heard? There will be a catastrophe the like we've never seen There will be something that will light the sky That the world as we know it, it will never be the same Did you know, did you know?
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
Yeah, it's enormously high risk. I also question the ability of the UK Govt to get to the 60% level. Things are already shutting down big time. The fact that we're so heavily service based will make it even harder.
As an economist my question for Italy's government: just how many lockdowns can you fund?
I can't see how Italy and Greece (at the very least) aren't going to need bailing out by the EU.
I'm genuinely caught in two minds which was more terrifying - Threads, or When The Wind Blows?
Right now is not the time to rewatch and decide...
Threads is so bleak, even watching it as an adult I was freaked out.
Apparently Reagan was deeply troubled by the US equivalent 'The Day After' which is very tame compared to Threads.
The thing about Threads is it's a downer, but you know all along - because they rub this in so you're left in no doubt at any point - that it's a downer. You are never under any illusion that "oh, this is nice, at least everything's going to get better from this point". Whereas When The Wind Blows is all Raymond Briggs children's-picture-book animation with a lovely old couple in a quaint house who could be your favourite aunt and uncle, and moments of human warmth and nostalgia and humour and optimism, but you're also completely aware (even when they aren't) that they're dying a hideous death while having been lied to successively by their politicians, jingoistic newspapers and even British culture's patriotic, un-self-critical self-image and "we'll muddle through" mentality. Although it's "just a cartoon", The tone of When The Wind Blows sucks you into a more traumatising emotional journey and I thought the political satire and cultural critique in it was more cutting. Threads is grisly, but for me I mostly found it a series of grisly practicalities.
Anyone want to pass comment on the original Survivors ("It concerns the plight of a group of people who have survived an apocalyptic plague pandemic, which was accidentally released by a Chinese scientist and quickly spread across the world via air travel. Referred to as "The Death", the plague kills approximately 4,999 out of every 5,000 human beings on the planet within a matter of weeks of being released")?
Yes, When The Wind Blows is so upsetting. The scene where he rings his son in London, who is resigned to death, and sings 'we'll all go together when we go' is awful.
I quite fancy watching the original Day of The Triffids, in case I need to go all John Duttine in my house in the countryside. I can probably get a flamethrower from Lidl.
They'll have them in the Aisle of Shite for sure.....
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
Yeah, it's enormously high risk. I also question the ability of the UK Govt to get to the 60% level. Things are already shutting down big time. The fact that we're so heavily service based will make it even harder.
As an economist my question for Italy's government: just how many lockdowns can you fund?
I can't see how Italy and Greece (at the very least) aren't going to need bailing out by the EU.
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
Yeah, it's enormously high risk. I also question the ability of the UK Govt to get to the 60% level. Things are already shutting down big time. The fact that we're so heavily service based will make it even harder.
As an economist my question for Italy's government: just how many lockdowns can you fund?
I can't see how Italy and Greece (at the very least) aren't going to need bailing out by the EU.
Spain and Portugal as well. The economics of this is very messy. The best thing for all involved (including Germany) would be a fragmentation of the Euro into two or more currencies, but the EU is not exactly a body that believes anything is more important than the politics of integration.
I wonder also if some politicians in the “rest of Europe” who are being told to crash their economies on scientific advice may be wishing they had our advisers?
They had to crash their economies because they left it too late to do what is now happening in Britain, much of it in spite of the PM - cancelling events, working from home etc. Hopefully the British still have time to avoid going into full production-stoppage lockdown mode but there's going to be a lot of growth in the next couple of weeks before we start to see results.
So Britain’s doing pretty well then? How lucky.
Yes, it's hitting Britain later - part luck (distance from both Wuhan and the North Italian cluster etc), and part that the early testing/containment was pretty good. It should have been in a much better position to handle it than China, then Korea, then Japan, then Italy.
But it seems like every developed country that hasn't had a previous recent fail (SARS or Crown Princess) then fails to use that time. It's particularly infuriating with the UK because we've got to watch how all these similar countries are failing, but then still insist on sticking to the old plans and failing the same way.
So it’s all luck rather than judgement. And when we’re doing the right thing it’s in opposition to the govt (despite the fact that behavioural science is at the forefront of their thinking).
Bruce Dickinson a genuine polymath: a singer of mind-blowing presence. An international fencer. An author. An airline pilot. An aviation entrepreneur.
I am amazed by these people who appear to be able to successfully juggle so many different skills / projects.
Dexter Holland from the Offspring is similar, done AIDs research (has a PhD in), pilot who has completed solo flight around the world and numerous business interests.
That peak to get "herd immunity" requires a near 60% infection rate, below that and it is not herd immunity, it is sacrificial cows.
That 60% level means about 43 million British getting it, and even at 1% mortality that is nearly a half a million dead before their time.
There are other assumptions:
1) that herd immunity will be protective against a mutated Coronovirus.
2) that a second wave will happen, and there will not be a benign mutation so that the disease fades away
3) that no effective treatment or vaccine is available before the second wave hits.
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
There are other assumptions being made for the alternative aggressive measures:
1) Closing schools helps. Not necessarily if we lose healthcare workers to childcare or the elderly take on childcare. 2) Travel bans help. Flights in particular could be bad because of forced close proximity and circulating air, but closing road and train borders strikes me as panic, why is someone moving from Austria to Czechia worse than someone moving within Czechia? What if these travel restrictions make food supply chains weaker? 3) Sporting events - basically we have played the same amount as everyone bar Italy. When its been closed doors fans have gathered in closer proximity outside grounds and in bars which is more likely to spread the disease than spread out in all seater grounds in the open.
Which of the aggressive measures are actually clearcut winners?
It's about to start over here - schools closed from Monday, companies firing up their work from home strategies, folks should fill up their freezers, self-isolate at home, and all sports suspended. As if that's not bad enough, the Masters has been postponed.
It's about to start over here - schools closed from Monday, companies firing up their work from home strategies, folks should fill up their freezers, self-isolate at home, and all sports suspended. As if that's not bad enough, the Masters has been postponed.
I've got a mate who's maintenance manager at a posh country house hotel and restaurant. They just about tick over on the rooms and covers, but the big money, the money that really keeps them afloat, comes from events and weddings during the summer. They've got circa a quarter of a mill in weddings alone booked up until September. The weddings are starting to get cancelled by nervous couples. He thinks the hotel will be bust by July.
Surprisingly we’ve still got weddings booking. But corporates are beginning to delay their bookings. Fortunately we have plenty of cash right now to manage but we may have to close the house to the public
Walking in the garden tonight, the smell of spring is definitely in the air. The trees and shrubs are flowering, you never know, Covid-19 might have turned up too late
That peak to get "herd immunity" requires a near 60% infection rate, below that and it is not herd immunity, it is sacrificial cows.
That 60% level means about 43 million British getting it, and even at 1% mortality that is nearly a half a million dead before their time.
There are other assumptions:
1) that herd immunity will be protective against a mutated Coronovirus.
2) that a second wave will happen, and there will not be a benign mutation so that the disease fades away
3) that no effective treatment or vaccine is available before the second wave hits.
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
There are other assumptions being made for the alternative aggressive measures:
1) Closing schools helps. Not necessarily if we lose healthcare workers to childcare or the elderly take on childcare. 2) Travel bans help. Flights in particular could be bad because of forced close proximity and circulating air, but closing road and train borders strikes me as panic, why is someone moving from Austria to Czechia worse than someone moving within Czechia? What if these travel restrictions make food supply chains weaker? 3) Sporting events - basically we have played the same amount as everyone bar Italy. When its been closed doors fans have gathered in closer proximity outside grounds and in bars which is more likely to spread the disease than spread out in all seater grounds in the open.
Which of the aggressive measures are actually clearcut winners?
Quite. And the government has laid out clearly the possible counterproductive effects of these measures. And even eiT’s hero countries haven’t been employing them universally. Why would you do something you assess as counterproductive, just because it looks decisive. As per Felix, above, ask Spain.
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
Yeah, it's enormously high risk. I also question the ability of the UK Govt to get to the 60% level. Things are already shutting down big time. The fact that we're so heavily service based will make it even harder.
As an economist my question for Italy's government: just how many lockdowns can you fund?
I can't see how Italy and Greece (at the very least) aren't going to need bailing out by the EU.
I'm losing the plot on this. Last year Farage and co were telling us Johnny Foreigner hadn't a clue and had absolutely no place in telling us what to do in ANY aspect of our lives.
Now it seems Johnny Foreigner has all the answers and British scientists and medics are rubbish.
3) Sporting events - basically we have played the same amount as everyone bar Italy. When its been closed doors fans have gathered in closer proximity outside grounds and in bars which is more likely to spread the disease than spread out in all seater grounds in the open.
Which of the aggressive measures are actually clearcut winners?
Anyone want to pass comment on the original Survivors ("It concerns the plight of a group of people who have survived an apocalyptic plague pandemic, which was accidentally released by a Chinese scientist and quickly spread across the world via air travel. Referred to as "The Death", the plague kills approximately 4,999 out of every 5,000 human beings on the planet within a matter of weeks of being released")?
Well, not quite. At one point, one of the characters says only 15 people have survived out of 75,000 in one area but later it turns out 100,000 have survived in Scotland.
Europe is largely depopulated though I think when they encounter the 500 survivors in London they have had radio contact with surviving groups in East Germany and Egypt.
Peter Bowles dies in the first episode and his surviving wife cuts her hair and burns the house down which is what we would all do in such a situation I would imagine.
If they want that graph to have impact then the second Asian peak in light blue needs to be bigger than the UK one.
Otherwise it looks like they're just going to get what we're going to get but much later, which will beg the question why we don't do the same*.
(*I appreciate economic damage hasn't been mapped onto this which would be lower in the UK scenario in any event)
Also, by the time their second peak comes along, we may also be a whole lot further along with testing. And... it may be that they have two small bumps and them a vaccine is rolled out...
Basically, it's going to be some time before we know for sure which response is the best.
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
Yeah, it's enormously high risk. I also question the ability of the UK Govt to get to the 60% level. Things are already shutting down big time. The fact that we're so heavily service based will make it even harder.
As an economist my question for Italy's government: just how many lockdowns can you fund?
I can't see how Italy and Greece (at the very least) aren't going to need bailing out by the EU.
And Spain.
Covid-19 represents a massive dose of gamma radiation delivered to the entire global tourism and hospitality sector, and Spain is even more reliant on that industry than Italy is. The implications of that for the economies of the Eurozone periphery are catastrophic, even if (rightly and understandably) they are mostly going undiscussed at the moment because everyone is frightened of the death toll from this thing.
However, one has to seriously question whether the EU is willing to bail out economies of this size (both due to the fundamentally dysfunctional architecture of the Eurozone and the horror of German and other creditor state taxpayers at being asked to stump up the colossal sums of money required,) or if it's able to even if it were so willing. After all, what's the total size of the Italian government debt pile alone - something like $2.5tn? A full-scale bailout of Italy would probably be the largest such rescue in the history of the world.
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
Yeah, it's enormously high risk. I also question the ability of the UK Govt to get to the 60% level. Things are already shutting down big time. The fact that we're so heavily service based will make it even harder.
As an economist my question for Italy's government: just how many lockdowns can you fund?
I can't see how Italy and Greece (at the very least) aren't going to need bailing out by the EU.
I'm losing the plot on this. Last year Farage and co were telling us Johnny Foreigner hadn't a clue and had absolutely no place in telling us what to do in ANY aspect of our lives.
Now it seems Johnny Foreigner has all the answers and British scientists and medics are rubbish.
Can someone from the Brexit Party help me out?
He was sick and tired of British experts. Nothing wrong with the Italian ones.
I wonder also if some politicians in the “rest of Europe” who are being told to crash their economies on scientific advice may be wishing they had our advisers?
They had to crash their economies because they left it too late to do what is now happening in Britain, much of it in spite of the PM - cancelling events, working from home etc. Hopefully the British still have time to avoid going into full production-stoppage lockdown mode but there's going to be a lot of growth in the next couple of weeks before we start to see results.
So Britain’s doing pretty well then? How lucky.
Yes, it's hitting Britain later - part luck (distance from both Wuhan and the North Italian cluster etc), and part that the early testing/containment was pretty good. It should have been in a much better position to handle it than China, then Korea, then Japan, then Italy.
But it seems like every developed country that hasn't had a previous recent fail (SARS or Crown Princess) then fails to use that time. It's particularly infuriating with the UK because we've got to watch how all these similar countries are failing, but then still insist on sticking to the old plans and failing the same way.
I think we have a very serious (and large) team of epidemiologists working on this and they will have looked at what has happened in other countries and not assumed we will be different!! After all, Whitty was (still does I think) have an appointment at LSHTM so is extremely well connected.
However, as you say, EiT, what is happening on the ground is that social distancing has started almost by default here (many institutes / companies, including my own, are working from home). Crucially, I think this is happening all across the country but without everything grinding to a total halt yet. The effect might well be, in conjunction with additional warnings to the elderly, a longer but less bruising epidemic where many get infected at a manageable rate without completely destroying the economy (I am anticipating home working for > 3 months). But very hard to be certain of course.
But does this seem reasonable to others?
That may indeed be how it pans out. Fingers crossed.
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
Yeah, it's enormously high risk. I also question the ability of the UK Govt to get to the 60% level. Things are already shutting down big time. The fact that we're so heavily service based will make it even harder.
As an economist my question for Italy's government: just how many lockdowns can you fund?
I can't see how Italy and Greece (at the very least) aren't going to need bailing out by the EU.
Our contribution would be through IMF not EU regardless of membership. The only bailouts we funded via the EU were Ireland and Portugal, both repaid in full so didnt cost a bean. Now the bailout of UK banking exec bonuses for a decade of loss making, fines and illegality, yes that cost real money.
I'm losing the plot on this. Last year Farage and co were telling us Johnny Foreigner hadn't a clue and had absolutely no place in telling us what to do in ANY aspect of our lives.
Now it seems Johnny Foreigner has all the answers and British scientists and medics are rubbish.
Can someone from the Brexit Party help me out?
TBF the BXP types seem to like Singapore, they can consistently recommend copying them...
Song of the day: When the Wild Wind Blows by Iron Maiden
Have you heard what they said on the news today Have you heard what is coming to us all? That the world as we know it will be coming to an end Have you heard, have you heard?
My wife is a teacher. She has really struggled with motivating herself to do all the pathetic garbage at school which even at the best of times is pathetic garbage. We are hoping the education establishment sees sense
Blimey. We are having multiple religious experiences right now. That’s asking for a miracle on a par with the raising of Lazarus.
If you've seen Ofsted's statement to Schoolsweek this afternoon, I wouldn't be optimistic. It's shameful stuff.
Policy papers are supposed to be clear and straightforward. Do you want to beat around the bush so there could be confusion?
The point is Charles it is not even a question that should arise for so many reasons. It is not the clarity that is at fault, it is the basic premise.
Given that schools are vectors for just about every virus that crops up, and there is no WFH for teachers, keeping them open, at a time the government is pursuing ‘herd immunity’ via infection, puts teachers directly in the firing line without choice.
If I were a teacher over the age of fifty, I’d be seriously pissed off, to put it mildly.
I’m sleeping about three or hours maximum. My physical and mental health are crumbling.
If they don’t announce changes, such as exemptions and the choice to work remotely, I think there will be a revolt.
I very much hope you found a way to balance your health needs and your teaching obligations.
Well, my cough is improving but my blood pressure is exploding, it’s no wonder I’m catching everything with being so knackered. With my different medications it was up to 155/106 earlier today, when it was nicely controlled at 120/80 only a couple of weeks ago. That’s stage 2 hypertension closing in on stage 3 with no chance of seeing a doctor about it! I rang for a repeat prescription today and was told don’t come to the surgery, pick it up at the pharmacy. Understandable, really.
3) Sporting events - basically we have played the same amount as everyone bar Italy. When its been closed doors fans have gathered in closer proximity outside grounds and in bars which is more likely to spread the disease than spread out in all seater grounds in the open.
Which of the aggressive measures are actually clearcut winners?
Closing the bars.
Not an action that the Faragists are demanding here at the moment......
These arguments about our scientists vs other scientists. People are going to die en masse. That is a given. My parents are old, frail and f**ked so it's not me saying it ok for other people to die. They might die.
The question that is gripping the powers that be isn't how to stop my parents dying. It's how to stop everyone's parents dying and half the businesses in the country folding and taking 5m jobs with them. It's a Shit Job and personally I'm happy to cede decision-making to them rather than to be them.
My wife is a teacher. She has really struggled with motivating herself to do all the pathetic garbage at school which even at the best of times is pathetic garbage. We are hoping the education establishment sees sense
Blimey. We are having multiple religious experiences right now. That’s asking for a miracle on a par with the raising of Lazarus.
If you've seen Ofsted's statement to Schoolsweek this afternoon, I wouldn't be optimistic. It's shameful stuff.
Policy papers are supposed to be clear and straightforward. Do you want to beat around the bush so there could be confusion?
The point is Charles it is not even a question that should arise for so many reasons. It is not the clarity that is at fault, it is the basic premise.
Given that schools are vectors for just about every virus that crops up, and there is no WFH for teachers, keeping them open, at a time the government is pursuing ‘herd immunity’ via infection, puts teachers directly in the firing line without choice.
If I were a teacher over the age of fifty, I’d be seriously pissed off, to put it mildly.
I’m sleeping about three or hours maximum. My physical and mental health are crumbling.
If they don’t announce changes, such as exemptions and the choice to work remotely, I think there will be a revolt.
I very much hope you found a way to balance your health needs and your teaching obligations.
Well, my cough is improving but my blood pressure is exploding, it’s no wonder I’m catching everything with being so knackered. With my different medications it was up to 155/106 earlier today, when it was nicely controlled at 120/80 only a couple of weeks ago. That’s stage 2 hypertension closing in on stage 3 with no chance of seeing a doctor about it! I rang for a repeat prescription today and was told don’t come to the surgery, pick it up at the pharmacy. Understandable, really.
Given what you have posted hope you are off sick and not feeling under pressure to work. Hope it improves quickly.
I'm genuinely caught in two minds which was more terrifying - Threads, or When The Wind Blows?
Right now is not the time to rewatch and decide...
Threads is so bleak, even watching it as an adult I was freaked out.
Apparently Reagan was deeply troubled by the US equivalent 'The Day After' which is very tame compared to Threads.
The thing about Threads is it's a downer, but you know all along - because they rub this in so you're left in no doubt at any point - that it's a downer. You are never under any illusion that "oh, this is nice, at least everything's going to get better from this point". Whereas When The Wind Blows is all Raymond Briggs children's-picture-book animation with a lovely old couple in a quaint house who could be your favourite aunt and uncle, and moments of human warmth and nostalgia and humour and optimism, but you're also completely aware (even when they aren't) that they're dying a hideous death while having been lied to successively by their politicians, jingoistic newspapers and even British culture's patriotic, un-self-critical self-image and "we'll muddle through" mentality. Although it's "just a cartoon", The tone of When The Wind Blows sucks you into a more traumatising emotional journey and I thought the political satire and cultural critique in it was more cutting. Threads is grisly, but for me I mostly found it a series of grisly practicalities.
Anyone want to pass comment on the original Survivors ("It concerns the plight of a group of people who have survived an apocalyptic plague pandemic, which was accidentally released by a Chinese scientist and quickly spread across the world via air travel. Referred to as "The Death", the plague kills approximately 4,999 out of every 5,000 human beings on the planet within a matter of weeks of being released")?
Yes, When The Wind Blows is so upsetting. The scene where he rings his son in London, who is resigned to death, and sings 'we'll all go together when we go' is awful.
I quite fancy watching the original Day of The Triffids, in case I need to go all John Duttine in my house in the countryside. I can probably get a flamethrower from Lidl.
Incidentally, Tom Lehrer is still alive at the age of 91 and witnessing all these events with us. Dread to think what he thinks about it all. He said back in the 80s that "I used to pick up the newspaper and laugh....But now I pick up the paper and I have to wait till breakfast is over because it’s just going to ruin it." I fear it's only got worse since then!!
The whole "If We Play Sports Behind Closed Doors Fans Will go to the Pub" is the kind of Ultra Nonsense that I question the speaker's mental faculties.
The statement suggests that the speaker believes on a normal match day fans do not go to the pub either before or after the match.
I wonder also if some politicians in the “rest of Europe” who are being told to crash their economies on scientific advice may be wishing they had our advisers?
They had to crash their economies because they left it too late to do what is now happening in Britain, much of it in spite of the PM - cancelling events, working from home etc. Hopefully the British still have time to avoid going into full production-stoppage lockdown mode but there's going to be a lot of growth in the next couple of weeks before we start to see results.
So Britain’s doing pretty well then? How lucky.
Yes, it's hitting Britain later - part luck (distance from both Wuhan and the North Italian cluster etc), and part that the early testing/containment was pretty good. It should have been in a much better position to handle it than China, then Korea, then Japan, then Italy.
But it seems like every developed country that hasn't had a previous recent fail (SARS or Crown Princess) then fails to use that time. It's particularly infuriating with the UK because we've got to watch how all these similar countries are failing, but then still insist on sticking to the old plans and failing the same way.
I think we have a very serious (and large) team of epidemiologists working on this and they will have looked at what has happened in other countries and not assumed we will be different!! After all, Whitty was (still does I think) have an appointment at LSHTM so is extremely well connected.
However, as you say, EiT, what is happening on the ground is that social distancing has started almost by default here (many institutes / companies, including my own, are working from home). Crucially, I think this is happening all across the country but without everything grinding to a total halt yet. The effect might well be, in conjunction with additional warnings to the elderly, a longer but less bruising epidemic where many get infected at a manageable rate without completely destroying the economy (I am anticipating home working for > 3 months). But very hard to be certain of course.
But does this seem reasonable to others?
Plan for 3 months, it may end up being shorter.
I think, looking at what is happening in Italy, it is entirely reasonable to conclude that snuffing out the epidemic nationally is not a viable option, therefore the better option is to focus defences around vulnerable populations and allow exposure and hence herd immunity to build up among those would could be expected to be the most resilient to the virus.
The thing is no-one knows anything for sure, and no two countries are the same. There is no right answer, and no cookie-cutter plan. Personally, I think the UK's approach is sensible, and potentially far better than simply copying what China or RoK did.
Thursday: Everything will carry on as normal Friday Night: If you cough a snatch squad will pull you into a van
Don't be an idiot...Wednesday night they announced a bill of emergency powers will be introduced on Monday and that they would meet with Ashworth to discuss on Thursday to agree the framework.
I wonder also if some politicians in the “rest of Europe” who are being told to crash their economies on scientific advice may be wishing they had our advisers?
They had to crash their economies because they left it too late to do what is now happening in Britain, much of it in spite of the PM - cancelling events, working from home etc. Hopefully the British still have time to avoid going into full production-stoppage lockdown mode but there's going to be a lot of growth in the next couple of weeks before we start to see results.
So Britain’s doing pretty well then? How lucky.
Yes, it's hitting Britain later - part luck (distance from both Wuhan and the North Italian cluster etc), and part that the early testing/containment was pretty good. It should have been in a much better position to handle it than China, then Korea, then Japan, then Italy.
But it seems like every developed country that hasn't had a previous recent fail (SARS or Crown Princess) then fails to use that time. It's particularly infuriating with the UK because we've got to watch how all these similar countries are failing, but then still insist on sticking to the old plans and failing the same way.
I think we have a very serious (and large) team of epidemiologists working on this and they will have looked at what has happened in other countries and not assumed we will be different!! After all, Whitty was (still does I think) have an appointment at LSHTM so is extremely well connected.
However, as you say, EiT, what is happening on the ground is that social distancing has started almost by default here (many institutes / companies, including my own, are working from home). Crucially, I think this is happening all across the country but without everything grinding to a total halt yet. The effect might well be, in conjunction with additional warnings to the elderly, a longer but less bruising epidemic where many get infected at a manageable rate without completely destroying the economy (I am anticipating home working for > 3 months). But very hard to be certain of course.
But does this seem reasonable to others?
Plan for 3 months, it may end up being shorter.
I think, looking at what is happening in Italy, it is entirely reasonable to conclude that snuffing out the epidemic nationally is not a viable option, therefore the better option is to focus defences around vulnerable populations and allow exposure and hence herd immunity to build up among those would could be expected to be the most resilient to the virus.
The thing is no-one knows anything for sure, and no two countries are the same. There is no right answer, and no cookie-cutter plan. Personally, I think the UK's approach is sensible, and potentially far better than simply copying what China or RoK did.
One of my team couldn't see why we were closing the office - When I told her to expect to be out for at least 2 months she was incredulous.
What do people think will be the last stockpileable foodstuff to depart the shelves?
Ryvita
Bizare spread of what had been cleared of the Bread shelves at my local supermarket. All presliced bread gone but plenty of whole loaves left. Huge supply of crumpets available but no muffins.
Had a slightly odd psychological experience on that issue this evening.
In the supermarket I saw a big pallet of carex liquid hand wash being placed on the shelves.
Now I've not seen any of that for a few days (the posh brands and bar soap have always been available) and I really, really had a yearning to buy some.
I don't need to buy any more soap as I've got plenty and as I said there is always other types available.
But I still had that yearning to buy carex liquid hand wash because I hadn't seen any for a few days.
I didn't though.
What gets me is that shelves are bare of soap in dispenser bottles, and the empty shelves are right next door to shelves full of shower gel, body wash, and bath oils, all of which would be just as good for cleaning your hands. Shampoo and conditioner are in good supply still, and even washing up liquid will do if needed.
At my Tesco this evening you couldn't buy a single liquid soap but plenty of cheap bars of soap on the shelves.
Ironic, given all those people prepared to work themselves into a lather.....
What do people think will be the last stockpileable foodstuff to depart the shelves?
Ryvita
Bizare spread of what had been cleared of the Bread shelves at my local supermarket. All presliced bread gone but plenty of whole loaves left. Huge supply of crumpets available but no muffins.
Presliced bread much easier for the freezer if stockpiling. Dont quite get why anyone wants to slice it themselves?
My wife is a teacher. She has really struggled with motivating herself to do all the pathetic garbage at school which even at the best of times is pathetic garbage. We are hoping the education establishment sees sense
Blimey. We are having multiple religious experiences right now. That’s asking for a miracle on a par with the raising of Lazarus.
If you've seen Ofsted's statement to Schoolsweek this afternoon, I wouldn't be optimistic. It's shameful stuff.
Policy papers are supposed to be clear and straightforward. Do you want to beat around the bush so there could be confusion?
The point is Charles it is not even a question that should arise for so many reasons. It is not the clarity that is at fault, it is the basic premise.
Given that schools are vectors for just about every virus that crops up, and there is no WFH for teachers, keeping them open, at a time the government is pursuing ‘herd immunity’ via infection, puts teachers directly in the firing line without choice.
If I were a teacher over the age of fifty, I’d be seriously pissed off, to put it mildly.
I’m sleeping about three or hours maximum. My physical and mental health are crumbling.
If they don’t announce changes, such as exemptions and the choice to work remotely, I think there will be a revolt.
I very much hope you found a way to balance your health needs and your teaching obligations.
Well, my cough is improving but my blood pressure is exploding, it’s no wonder I’m catching everything with being so knackered. With my different medications it was up to 155/106 earlier today, when it was nicely controlled at 120/80 only a couple of weeks ago. That’s stage 2 hypertension closing in on stage 3 with no chance of seeing a doctor about it! I rang for a repeat prescription today and was told don’t come to the surgery, pick it up at the pharmacy. Understandable, really.
I checked with another (independent school) teacher of my acquaintance.
Her school is advising: "Any pupil or member of staff who develops a persistent cough and/or a temperature in excess of 37.8°C is required to remain at home and away from school for seven days"
You have a persistent cough. I would say you need 7 days sick leave.
These arguments about our scientists vs other scientists. People are going to die en masse. That is a given. My parents are old, frail and f**ked so it's not me saying it ok for other people to die. They might die.
The question that is gripping the powers that be isn't how to stop my parents dying. It's how to stop everyone's parents dying and half the businesses in the country folding and taking 5m jobs with them. It's a Shit Job and personally I'm happy to cede decision-making to them rather than to be them.
Look, only 11 people have died so far in the UK. Let's take it one day at a time and hope that it's better than expected.
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
Different countries, different risks, different systems, different current status of disease spread.
And possibly different views among scientists
When there is change of government, do the people in expert positions stay in post long? Or are they given prestigious roles by party’s? The committee of public security didn’t have Robespierre on it so it was giving expert opinion independent of him you will be arguing next.
"Two years", I mean it's sensible to have such powers available for an extended time if necessary, but hopefully that will make some of the wishful thinkers realise this isn't likely to be over anytime soon.
I have seen it all day on twitter, often blaming Brexit. These people still seem to think it is political pointing scoring game and who can win the tw@tter war.
What do people think will be the last stockpileable foodstuff to depart the shelves?
Ryvita
Bizare spread of what had been cleared of the Bread shelves at my local supermarket. All presliced bread gone but plenty of whole loaves left. Huge supply of crumpets available but no muffins.
Presliced bread much easier for the freezer if stockpiling. Dont quite get why anyone wants to slice it themselves?
Because you can slice it sideways and make enormous sandwiches.
I wonder also if some politicians in the “rest of Europe” who are being told to crash their economies on scientific advice may be wishing they had our advisers?
They had to crash their economies because they left it too late to do what is now happening in Britain, much of it in spite of the PM - cancelling events, working from home etc. Hopefully the British still have time to avoid going into full production-stoppage lockdown mode but there's going to be a lot of growth in the next couple of weeks before we start to see results.
So Britain’s doing pretty well then? How lucky.
Yes, it's hitting Britain later - part luck (distance from both Wuhan and the North Italian cluster etc), and part that the early testing/containment was pretty good. It should have been in a much better position to handle it than China, then Korea, then Japan, then Italy.
But it seems like every developed country that hasn't had a previous recent fail (SARS or Crown Princess) then fails to use that time. It's particularly infuriating with the UK because we've got to watch how all these similar countries are failing, but then still insist on sticking to the old plans and failing the same way.
I think we have a very serious (and large) team of epidemiologists working on this and they will have looked at what has happened in other countries and not assumed we will be different!! After all, Whitty was (still does I think) have an appointment at LSHTM so is extremely well connected.
However, as you say, EiT, what is happening on the ground is that social distancing has started almost by default here (many institutes / companies, including my own, are working from home). Crucially, I think this is happening all across the country but without everything grinding to a total halt yet. The effect might well be, in conjunction with additional warnings to the elderly, a longer but less bruising epidemic where many get infected at a manageable rate without completely destroying the economy (I am anticipating home working for > 3 months). But very hard to be certain of course.
But does this seem reasonable to others?
If the Government doesn't feel the necessity to adopt an Italian-style clampdown on travel and especially retail and (smaller) leisure businesses then, yes, that sounds plausible. Economic activity will clearly dampen. Medically vulnerable people will leave the workforce to go into isolation at the same time as the elderly. Some businesses reliant on discretionary spending will fold or be shuttered for the duration, although the tourist sector might get some help from staycationers in July and August if the peak of the epidemic has passed by then. Most cinemas and theatres as well as sports stadia will obviously shut up shop for however long mass gatherings remain prohibited, and unemployment will inevitably spike. Many people who are still in work and who can undertake their jobs from home will do so.
But alongside that, workers in manufacturing, agriculture and other industries that cannot be relocated to the home will continue to go to their workplaces. Many restaurants, pubs, gyms and shops will keep ticking over, even if custom is thinner on the ground. The schools will keep on going, and so most of the under-70s will continue something resembling normal life, even if lived under a shadow. It won't so much be a case of the lights being shut off but of the dimmer switch being dialled down.
One can only assume that this is the aim of the Government. Will it be successful? We don't know yet, of course.
I wonder also if some politicians in the “rest of Europe” who are being told to crash their economies on scientific advice may be wishing they had our advisers?
They had to crash their economies because they left it too late to do what is now happening in Britain, much of it in spite of the PM - cancelling events, working from home etc. Hopefully the British still have time to avoid going into full production-stoppage lockdown mode but there's going to be a lot of growth in the next couple of weeks before we start to see results.
So Britain’s doing pretty well then? How lucky.
Yes, it's hitting Britain later - part luck (distance from both Wuhan and the North Italian cluster etc), and part that the early testing/containment was pretty good. It should have been in a much better position to handle it than China, then Korea, then Japan, then Italy.
But it seems like every developed country that hasn't had a previous recent fail (SARS or Crown Princess) then fails to use that time. It's particularly infuriating with the UK because we've got to watch how all these similar countries are failing, but then still insist on sticking to the old plans and failing the same way.
I think we have a very serious (and large) team of epidemiologists working on this and they will have looked at what has happened in other countries and not assumed we will be different!! After all, Whitty was (still does I think) have an appointment at LSHTM so is extremely well connected.
However, as you say, EiT, what is happening on the ground is that social distancing has started almost by default here (many institutes / companies, including my own, are working from home). Crucially, I think this is happening all across the country but without everything grinding to a total halt yet. The effect might well be, in conjunction with additional warnings to the elderly, a longer but less bruising epidemic where many get infected at a manageable rate without completely destroying the economy (I am anticipating home working for > 3 months). But very hard to be certain of course.
But does this seem reasonable to others?
Plan for 3 months, it may end up being shorter.
I think, looking at what is happening in Italy, it is entirely reasonable to conclude that snuffing out the epidemic nationally is not a viable option, therefore the better option is to focus defences around vulnerable populations and allow exposure and hence herd immunity to build up among those would could be expected to be the most resilient to the virus.
The thing is no-one knows anything for sure, and no two countries are the same. There is no right answer, and no cookie-cutter plan. Personally, I think the UK's approach is sensible, and potentially far better than simply copying what China or RoK did.
What do you make of Daily Express claim vaccine is near at hand, possible?
These arguments about our scientists vs other scientists. People are going to die en masse. That is a given. My parents are old, frail and f**ked so it's not me saying it ok for other people to die. They might die.
The question that is gripping the powers that be isn't how to stop my parents dying. It's how to stop everyone's parents dying and half the businesses in the country folding and taking 5m jobs with them. It's a Shit Job and personally I'm happy to cede decision-making to them rather than to be them.
Look, only 11 people have died so far in the UK. Let's take it one day at a time and hope that it's better than expected.
imho the people peddling this line that we must go into our houses and not leave until it has passed are talking bollocks (and I include leading scientists in this).
Most people will not stick it for more than a few weeks. Not the three or four or even six months required.
These arguments about our scientists vs other scientists. People are going to die en masse. That is a given. My parents are old, frail and f**ked so it's not me saying it ok for other people to die. They might die.
The question that is gripping the powers that be isn't how to stop my parents dying. It's how to stop everyone's parents dying and half the businesses in the country folding and taking 5m jobs with them. It's a Shit Job and personally I'm happy to cede decision-making to them rather than to be them.
Look, only 11 people have died so far in the UK. Let's take it one day at a time and hope that it's better than expected.
imho the people peddling this line that we must go into our houses and not leave until it has passed are talking bollocks (and I include leading scientists in this).
Most people will not stick it for more than a few weeks. Not the three or four or even six months required.
Especially when faced with eating that crappy dried pasta for the 90th day running...
These arguments about our scientists vs other scientists. People are going to die en masse. That is a given. My parents are old, frail and f**ked so it's not me saying it ok for other people to die. They might die.
The question that is gripping the powers that be isn't how to stop my parents dying. It's how to stop everyone's parents dying and half the businesses in the country folding and taking 5m jobs with them. It's a Shit Job and personally I'm happy to cede decision-making to them rather than to be them.
Look, only 11 people have died so far in the UK. Let's take it one day at a time and hope that it's better than expected.
imho the people peddling this line that we must go into our houses and not leave until it has passed are talking bollocks (and I include leading scientists in this).
Most people will not stick it for more than a few weeks. Not the three or four or even six months required.
People are viewing everything in a very binary manner. Lockdown is interpreted as cant leave the house for three months.
Surely just reducing the amount of time you leave the house by 90% will have a massive impact without needing the govt to start banning the last 10% of time?
What do people think will be the last stockpileable foodstuff to depart the shelves?
Ryvita
Bizare spread of what had been cleared of the Bread shelves at my local supermarket. All presliced bread gone but plenty of whole loaves left. Huge supply of crumpets available but no muffins.
Preslices are easier to freeze and split a single slice off
These arguments about our scientists vs other scientists. People are going to die en masse. That is a given. My parents are old, frail and f**ked so it's not me saying it ok for other people to die. They might die.
The question that is gripping the powers that be isn't how to stop my parents dying. It's how to stop everyone's parents dying and half the businesses in the country folding and taking 5m jobs with them. It's a Shit Job and personally I'm happy to cede decision-making to them rather than to be them.
Look, only 11 people have died so far in the UK. Let's take it one day at a time and hope that it's better than expected.
imho the people peddling this line that we must go into our houses and not leave until it has passed are talking bollocks (and I include leading scientists in this).
Most people will not stick it for more than a few weeks. Not the three or four or even six months required.
Especially when faced with eating that crappy dried pasta for the 90th day running...
Not going to happen to me. I got penne and fusilli.
Thursday: Everything will carry on as normal Friday Night: If you cough a snatch squad will pull you into a van
Don't be an idiot...Wednesday night they announced a bill of emergency powers will be introduced on Monday and that they would meet with Ashworth to discuss on Thursday to agree the framework.
Yes, I find it striking how hard people like the poster above you are trying to wilfully not listen to what is being said. I’m not angry with them, just very disappointed.
My wife is a teacher. She has really struggled with motivating herself to do all the pathetic garbage at school which even at the best of times is pathetic garbage. We are hoping the education establishment sees sense
Blimey. We are having multiple religious experiences right now. That’s asking for a miracle on a par with the raising of Lazarus.
If you've seen Ofsted's statement to Schoolsweek this afternoon, I wouldn't be optimistic. It's shameful stuff.
Policy papers are supposed to be clear and straightforward. Do you want to beat around the bush so there could be confusion?
The point is Charles it is not even a question that should arise for so many reasons. It is not the clarity that is at fault, it is the basic premise.
Given that schools are vectors for just about every virus that crops up, and there is no WFH for teachers, keeping them open, at a time the government is pursuing ‘herd immunity’ via infection, puts teachers directly in the firing line without choice.
If I were a teacher over the age of fifty, I’d be seriously pissed off, to put it mildly.
I’m sleeping about three or hours maximum. My physical and mental health are crumbling.
If they don’t announce changes, such as exemptions and the choice to work remotely, I think there will be a revolt.
I very much hope you found a way to balance your health needs and your teaching obligations.
Well, my cough is improving but my blood pressure is exploding, it’s no wonder I’m catching everything with being so knackered. With my different medications it was up to 155/106 earlier today, when it was nicely controlled at 120/80 only a couple of weeks ago. That’s stage 2 hypertension closing in on stage 3 with no chance of seeing a doctor about it! I rang for a repeat prescription today and was told don’t come to the surgery, pick it up at the pharmacy. Understandable, really.
Given what you have posted hope you are off sick and not feeling under pressure to work. Hope it improves quickly.
Thanks. As all teachers will know, the pressure comes from not wanting to let students down.
These arguments about our scientists vs other scientists. People are going to die en masse. That is a given. My parents are old, frail and f**ked so it's not me saying it ok for other people to die. They might die.
The question that is gripping the powers that be isn't how to stop my parents dying. It's how to stop everyone's parents dying and half the businesses in the country folding and taking 5m jobs with them. It's a Shit Job and personally I'm happy to cede decision-making to them rather than to be them.
Look, only 11 people have died so far in the UK. Let's take it one day at a time and hope that it's better than expected.
imho the people peddling this line that we must go into our houses and not leave until it has passed are talking bollocks (and I include leading scientists in this).
Most people will not stick it for more than a few weeks. Not the three or four or even six months required.
Especially when faced with eating that crappy dried pasta for the 90th day running...
Not going to happen to me. I got penne and fusilli.
It's about to start over here - schools closed from Monday, companies firing up their work from home strategies, folks should fill up their freezers, self-isolate at home, and all sports suspended. As if that's not bad enough, the Masters has been postponed.
Now the masters has been postponed the sheer horror of all this has suddenly hit me. 🙁
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
Obviously this doesn't prove it one way or the other, but do you not think the others are - err - herding?
The reality is... we won't know for about 18 months.
We will look really stupid if:
(1) numbers spike before we implement our lockdown, resulting in an overloaded NHS and lots of deaths (2) a vaccine/cure is developed this year, in which case our herd immunity benefits will have been for nothing
On the other hand, we'll look really smart if:
(1) we have one medium sized peak in summer, and no significant flare ups after (2) other countries have subsequent large scale incidences, while we're broadly untouched
We won't know which one will be the case for some time. I suspect, by the way, that the chart showing others having a big second peak are simply wrong: instead there will be lots of little peaks, probably resulting in more economic damage but fewer dead overall.
My wife is a teacher. She has really struggled with motivating herself to do all the pathetic garbage at school which even at the best of times is pathetic garbage. We are hoping the education establishment sees sense
Blimey. We are having multiple religious experiences right now. That’s asking for a miracle on a par with the raising of Lazarus.
If you've seen Ofsted's statement to Schoolsweek this afternoon, I wouldn't be optimistic. It's shameful stuff.
Policy papers are supposed to be clear and straightforward. Do you want to beat around the bush so there could be confusion?
The point is Charles it is not even a question that should arise for so many reasons. It is not the clarity that is at fault, it is the basic premise.
Given that schools are vectors for just about every virus that crops up, and there is no WFH for teachers, keeping them open, at a time the government is pursuing ‘herd immunity’ via infection, puts teachers directly in the firing line without choice.
If I were a teacher over the age of fifty, I’d be seriously pissed off, to put it mildly.
I’m sleeping about three or hours maximum. My physical and mental health are crumbling.
If they don’t announce changes, such as exemptions and the choice to work remotely, I think there will be a revolt.
I very much hope you found a way to balance your health needs and your teaching obligations.
Well, my cough is improving but my blood pressure is exploding, it’s no wonder I’m catching everything with being so knackered. With my different medications it was up to 155/106 earlier today, when it was nicely controlled at 120/80 only a couple of weeks ago. That’s stage 2 hypertension closing in on stage 3 with no chance of seeing a doctor about it! I rang for a repeat prescription today and was told don’t come to the surgery, pick it up at the pharmacy. Understandable, really.
Given what you have posted hope you are off sick and not feeling under pressure to work. Hope it improves quickly.
Thanks. As all teachers will know, the pressure comes from not wanting to let students down.
Whilst its a welcome and admirable quality, sometimes in the UK we stay at work too long when ill. On the amount of sleep you are getting and being ill on top they would be better off with you resting and recovering, prioritising sleep for 7 days, than struggling to come in. Obviously you would be better off as well which is just as important. Good luck with whatever you choose.
The reality is... we won't know for about 18 months.
We will look really stupid if:
(1) numbers spike before we implement our lockdown, resulting in an overloaded NHS and lots of deaths (2) a vaccine/cure is developed this year, in which case our herd immunity benefits will have been for nothing
On the other hand, we'll look really smart if:
(1) we have one medium sized peak in summer, and no significant flare ups after (2) other countries have subsequent large scale incidences, while we're broadly untouched
We won't know which one will be the case for some time. I suspect, by the way, that the chart showing others having a big second peak are simply wrong: instead there will be lots of little peaks, probably resulting in more economic damage but fewer dead overall.
I guess the UK has a bit of a unique situation among developed countries of having an extremely shitty healthcare system that can barely cope with a normal winter, but everybody has to tiptoe around that because the British have created a primitive religion around it.
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
Obviously this doesn't prove it one way or the other, but do you not think the others are - err - herding?
The reality is... we won't know for about 18 months.
We will look really stupid if:
(1) numbers spike before we implement our lockdown, resulting in an overloaded NHS and lots of deaths (2) a vaccine/cure is developed this year, in which case our herd immunity benefits will have been for nothing
On the other hand, we'll look really smart if:
(1) we have one medium sized peak in summer, and no significant flare ups after (2) other countries have subsequent large scale incidences, while we're broadly untouched
We won't know which one will be the case for some time. I suspect, by the way, that the chart showing others having a big second peak are simply wrong: instead there will be lots of little peaks, probably resulting in more economic damage but fewer dead overall.
We might also look smart if infection rates continue to rise more slowly in the UK than the countries with the more aggressive measures in Europe. Its unlikely but certainly plausible that encouraging us to make personal choices has a better adherence to things like hand washing than going to govt enforced quarantines.
Yes, it's hitting Britain later - part luck (distance from both Wuhan and the North Italian cluster etc), and part that the early testing/containment was pretty good.
Whilst its a welcome and admirable quality, sometimes in the UK we stay at work too long when ill. On the amount of sleep you are getting and being ill on top they would be better off with you resting and recovering, prioritising sleep for 7 days, than struggling to come in. Obviously you would be better off as well which is just as important. Good luck with whatever you choose.
It is so not an admirable quality to have a workmate who insists they have to soldier on with a foul cold. Get off home.
I do hope that longer term, this is one thing that changes about the "plucky Brit". You keep your distance, stay home, get better, don't return until you are.
Yes, it's hitting Britain later - part luck (distance from both Wuhan and the North Italian cluster etc), and part that the early testing/containment was pretty good.
For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
If a million people have it, tens of millions will have it the following week.
So how high is the peak these graphs are estimating for the uk? If were getting say 30m cases the peak week has to be over 1m doesnt it? If 1% need ICU are we just about coping?
If 30 million people are to get it over about four months, with half getting it in the peak month, and people being in intensive care for two weeks (which is probably low), then you will need 800,000 intensive care beds (assuming 10% require ICU).
The reality is... we won't know for about 18 months.
We will look really stupid if:
(1) numbers spike before we implement our lockdown, resulting in an overloaded NHS and lots of deaths (2) a vaccine/cure is developed this year, in which case our herd immunity benefits will have been for nothing
On the other hand, we'll look really smart if:
(1) we have one medium sized peak in summer, and no significant flare ups after (2) other countries have subsequent large scale incidences, while we're broadly untouched
We won't know which one will be the case for some time. I suspect, by the way, that the chart showing others having a big second peak are simply wrong: instead there will be lots of little peaks, probably resulting in more economic damage but fewer dead overall.
I guess the UK has a bit of a unique situation among developed countries of having an extremely shitty healthcare system that can barely cope with a normal winter, but everybody has to tiptoe around that because the British have created a primitive religion around it.
You realise that’s bollocks for all sorts of reasons don’t you? Of course you do. Sigh....
The reality is... we won't know for about 18 months.
We will look really stupid if:
(1) numbers spike before we implement our lockdown, resulting in an overloaded NHS and lots of deaths (2) a vaccine/cure is developed this year, in which case our herd immunity benefits will have been for nothing
On the other hand, we'll look really smart if:
(1) we have one medium sized peak in summer, and no significant flare ups after (2) other countries have subsequent large scale incidences, while we're broadly untouched
We won't know which one will be the case for some time. I suspect, by the way, that the chart showing others having a big second peak are simply wrong: instead there will be lots of little peaks, probably resulting in more economic damage but fewer dead overall.
I guess the UK has a bit of a unique situation among developed countries of having an extremely shitty healthcare system that can barely cope with a normal winter, but everybody has to tiptoe around that because the British have created a primitive religion around it.
I'm no worshipper of the NHS but I'm not aware that life expectancy is much different in the UK compared to countries with other healthcare systems.
Whilst its a welcome and admirable quality, sometimes in the UK we stay at work too long when ill. On the amount of sleep you are getting and being ill on top they would be better off with you resting and recovering, prioritising sleep for 7 days, than struggling to come in. Obviously you would be better off as well which is just as important. Good luck with whatever you choose.
It is so not an admirable quality to have a workmate who insists they have to soldier on with a foul cold. Get off home.
I do hope that longer term, this is one thing that changes about the "plucky Brit". You keep your distance, stay home, get better, don't return until you are.
My wife is a teacher. She has really struggled with motivating herself to do all the pathetic garbage at school which even at the best of times is pathetic garbage. We are hoping the education establishment sees sense
Blimey. We are having multiple religious experiences right now. That’s asking for a miracle on a par with the raising of Lazarus.
If you've seen Ofsted's statement to Schoolsweek this afternoon, I wouldn't be optimistic. It's shameful stuff.
Policy papers are supposed to be clear and straightforward. Do you want to beat around the bush so there could be confusion?
The point is Charles it is not even a question that should arise for so many reasons. It is not the clarity that is at fault, it is the basic premise.
Given that schools are vectors for just about every virus that crops up, and there is no WFH for teachers, keeping them open, at a time the government is pursuing ‘herd immunity’ via infection, puts teachers directly in the firing line without choice.
If I were a teacher over the age of fifty, I’d be seriously pissed off, to put it mildly.
I’m sleeping about three or hours maximum. My physical and mental health are crumbling.
If they don’t announce changes, such as exemptions and the choice to work remotely, I think there will be a revolt.
I very much hope you found a way to balance your health needs and your teaching obligations.
Well, my cough is improving but my blood pressure is exploding, it’s no wonder I’m catching everything with being so knackered. With my different medications it was up to 155/106 earlier today, when it was nicely controlled at 120/80 only a couple of weeks ago. That’s stage 2 hypertension closing in on stage 3 with no chance of seeing a doctor about it! I rang for a repeat prescription today and was told don’t come to the surgery, pick it up at the pharmacy. Understandable, really.
Given what you have posted hope you are off sick and not feeling under pressure to work. Hope it improves quickly.
Thanks. As all teachers will know, the pressure comes from not wanting to let students down.
I’m just trying to figure out how I can do that.
That is for your school to figure out. With your help perhaps, but primarily the ball is in their court. Your health is front back and centre.
Comments
Have you heard what they said on the news today
Have you heard what is coming to us all?
That the world as we know it will be coming to an end
Have you heard, have you heard?
https://youtu.be/WjKKD6yXlVc
I quite fancy watching the original Day of The Triffids, in case I need to go all John Duttine in my house in the countryside. I can probably get a flamethrower from Lidl.
Edit: oops Jon ashworth the Labour health sec. mistook him for the other guy.
As an economist my question for Italy's government: just how many lockdowns can you fund?
Have you heard what they said about us all
Do you know what is happening to just every one of us
Have you heard, have you heard?
There will be a catastrophe the like we've never seen
There will be something that will light the sky
That the world as we know it, it will never be the same
Did you know, did you know?
To quote Napoleon. “Just give me Lucky generals”
Dexter Holland from the Offspring is similar, done AIDs research (has a PhD in), pilot who has completed solo flight around the world and numerous business interests.
1) Closing schools helps. Not necessarily if we lose healthcare workers to childcare or the elderly take on childcare.
2) Travel bans help. Flights in particular could be bad because of forced close proximity and circulating air, but closing road and train borders strikes me as panic, why is someone moving from Austria to Czechia worse than someone moving within Czechia? What if these travel restrictions make food supply chains weaker?
3) Sporting events - basically we have played the same amount as everyone bar Italy. When its been closed doors fans have gathered in closer proximity outside grounds and in bars which is more likely to spread the disease than spread out in all seater grounds in the open.
Which of the aggressive measures are actually clearcut winners?
Now it seems Johnny Foreigner has all the answers and British scientists and medics are rubbish.
Can someone from the Brexit Party help me out?
Europe is largely depopulated though I think when they encounter the 500 survivors in London they have had radio contact with surviving groups in East Germany and Egypt.
Peter Bowles dies in the first episode and his surviving wife cuts her hair and burns the house down which is what we would all do in such a situation I would imagine.
Basically, it's going to be some time before we know for sure which response is the best.
However, one has to seriously question whether the EU is willing to bail out economies of this size (both due to the fundamentally dysfunctional architecture of the Eurozone and the horror of German and other creditor state taxpayers at being asked to stump up the colossal sums of money required,) or if it's able to even if it were so willing. After all, what's the total size of the Italian government debt pile alone - something like $2.5tn? A full-scale bailout of Italy would probably be the largest such rescue in the history of the world.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1238589708751589376
Our contribution would be through IMF not EU regardless of membership. The only bailouts we funded via the EU were Ireland and Portugal, both repaid in full so didnt cost a bean. Now the bailout of UK banking exec bonuses for a decade of loss making, fines and illegality, yes that cost real money.
The question that is gripping the powers that be isn't how to stop my parents dying. It's how to stop everyone's parents dying and half the businesses in the country folding and taking 5m jobs with them. It's a Shit Job and personally I'm happy to cede decision-making to them rather than to be them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs
The statement suggests that the speaker believes on a normal match day fans do not go to the pub either before or after the match.
I think, looking at what is happening in Italy, it is entirely reasonable to conclude that snuffing out the epidemic nationally is not a viable option, therefore the better option is to focus defences around vulnerable populations and allow exposure and hence herd immunity to build up among those would could be expected to be the most resilient to the virus.
The thing is no-one knows anything for sure, and no two countries are the same. There is no right answer, and no cookie-cutter plan. Personally, I think the UK's approach is sensible, and potentially far better than simply copying what China or RoK did.
Friday Night: If you cough a snatch squad will pull you into a van
And possibly different views among scientists
I think, looking at what is happening in Italy, it is entirely reasonable to conclude that snuffing out the epidemic nationally is not a viable option, therefore the better option is to focus defences around vulnerable populations and allow exposure and hence herd immunity to build up among those would could be expected to be the most resilient to the virus.
The thing is no-one knows anything for sure, and no two countries are the same. There is no right answer, and no cookie-cutter plan. Personally, I think the UK's approach is sensible, and potentially far better than simply copying what China or RoK did.
One of my team couldn't see why we were closing the office - When I told her to expect to be out for at least 2 months she was incredulous.
Her school is advising: "Any pupil or member of staff who develops a persistent cough and/or a temperature in excess of 37.8°C is required to remain at home and away from school for seven days"
You have a persistent cough. I would say you need 7 days sick leave.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1238576503048331266
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1238576980691496960
But alongside that, workers in manufacturing, agriculture and other industries that cannot be relocated to the home will continue to go to their workplaces. Many restaurants, pubs, gyms and shops will keep ticking over, even if custom is thinner on the ground. The schools will keep on going, and so most of the under-70s will continue something resembling normal life, even if lived under a shadow. It won't so much be a case of the lights being shut off but of the dimmer switch being dialled down.
One can only assume that this is the aim of the Government. Will it be successful? We don't know yet, of course.
I think, looking at what is happening in Italy, it is entirely reasonable to conclude that snuffing out the epidemic nationally is not a viable option, therefore the better option is to focus defences around vulnerable populations and allow exposure and hence herd immunity to build up among those would could be expected to be the most resilient to the virus.
The thing is no-one knows anything for sure, and no two countries are the same. There is no right answer, and no cookie-cutter plan. Personally, I think the UK's approach is sensible, and potentially far better than simply copying what China or RoK did.
What do you make of Daily Express claim vaccine is near at hand, possible?
Most people will not stick it for more than a few weeks. Not the three or four or even six months required.
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1238601230647246848
https://mobile.twitter.com/forde7511/status/1238603385592524800
Surely just reducing the amount of time you leave the house by 90% will have a massive impact without needing the govt to start banning the last 10% of time?
I’m just trying to figure out how I can do that.
We will look really stupid if:
(1) numbers spike before we implement our lockdown, resulting in an overloaded NHS and lots of deaths
(2) a vaccine/cure is developed this year, in which case our herd immunity benefits will have been for nothing
On the other hand, we'll look really smart if:
(1) we have one medium sized peak in summer, and no significant flare ups after
(2) other countries have subsequent large scale incidences, while we're broadly untouched
We won't know which one will be the case for some time. I suspect, by the way, that the chart showing others having a big second peak are simply wrong: instead there will be lots of little peaks, probably resulting in more economic damage but fewer dead overall.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-south-yorkshire-51875301?__twitter_impression=true
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I do hope that longer term, this is one thing that changes about the "plucky Brit". You keep your distance, stay home, get better, don't return until you are.