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TheScreamingEagles

This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.

IanB2

Second

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.

Our thoughts are with you at this difficult time.

Sandpit

FPT:

It's to the government's credit that they've allowed the scientists to play such a prominent role. It's something that's not been seen in many other countries to the same extent.

From a sociology perspective these two men are authority figures, their involvement now will make it much easier to enforce stronger behavioural changes later, in a way that wouldn't be the case if it were the PM making the case. In a time of political division, the deployment of the scientists is a genius idea.

IanB2

Actually the last time local elections were deferred was 2014. From early to late May. The lead makes the same mistake as a PB’er last week.

IanB2

..

eristdoof

FrancisUrquhart said:

eristdoof said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Italy daily update

2116 new infections
250 new deaths
181 new healed

I believe that is a significant reduction in new cases if that is any glimmer of hope.

That is not what I see in the figures available to me, but different websites use different time points for counting. Can you please justify this claim that the new cases in the last 24 hours is a significant reduction?

I actually misread Wikipedia. I thought it had 12162 / 15113 (for 11/12),but actually says was 12462 / 15113. So it is a reduction, but not ~3000 to ~2000.

Ok, thanks. We also have to be careful when using the very latest data, as they could well be for just part of the day. This depends on whether the data are published daily or several times a day. Eg. Worldometers has currently +2547 new cases in Italy since midnight GMT.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.

It could be worse. They could be kept running, tying up capital for a year and requiring more investment if there are material changes that might affect the outcomes.

AlwaysSinging

Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread I'll repost...

FPT:

Good evening, PB.

I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.

The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.

-- AS

Malmesbury

Sandpit said:

FPT:

It's to the government's credit that they've allowed the scientists to play such a prominent role. It's something that's not been seen in many other countries to the same extent.

From a sociology perspective these two men are authority figures, their involvement now will make it much easier to enforce stronger behavioural changes later, in a way that wouldn't be the case if it were the PM making the case. In a time of political division, the deployment of the scientists is a genius idea.

It is interesting that even the ideologically opposed haven't started the usual personal attacks on the CMO and CSA.

Sandpit

IanB2 said:

Actually the last time local elections were deferred was 2014. From early to late May. The lead makes the same mistake as a PB’er last week.

Ah yes, because the EU had their own elections a fortnight later than the planned locals.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_Kingdom_local_elections

rottenborough

There is, in fact, a real danger to people standing on their soapboxes. It’s clear that we are fast approaching a situation that will become akin to a war, where the public is asked to accept unprecedented sacrifices, and where the effect on the “home front” will be the most profound since the end of the Second World War.

If people with limited knowledge whip up rhetoric against the official advice, then this undermines confidence in the very people who are keeping us as safe as possible.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/13/questioning-governments-coronavirus-strategy-not-wrong-danger/

rottenborough

AlwaysSinging said:

Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread I'll repost...

FPT:

Good evening, PB.

I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.

The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.

-- AS

Welcome aboard.

Stocky

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.

Which bets?

Casino_Royale

Ruined my position and planned payout on Khan.

Still.. too late to cancel the Labour leadership race.

TimT

AlwaysSinging said:

Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread I'll repost...

FPT:

Good evening, PB.

I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.

The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.

-- AS

Welcome, AS Always good to have new blood in discussions.

Gardenwalker

Hello AS!

Casino_Royale

AlwaysSinging said:

Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread I'll repost...

FPT:

Good evening, PB.

I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.

The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.

-- AS

A very warm welcome!

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.

It's a disaster. The London Mayoral election has been an absolute zinger, I had quite a bit on Sadiq Khan at super odds. Did Boris not think of the punters?

MyBurningEars

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

I find it oddly comforting that you read the Daily Star.

Do they still do a tit count?

- I didn't read it! God.

There is an advantage to occasionally reading the Star, Sun, Mirror, Express, even (gasp) the Daily Mail. Or at least there was when newspaper readership was higher, I don't do it so much anymore. My usual source was abandoned copies on buses, trains or the tube, but that's probably not very covidsafe! Most of us have a critical awareness about our own media and information diet, and how that shapes our worldview. But we are massively outnumbered by people on very different information diets to us. Dipping in to what they see can help us see the world through their eyes.

With the decline of the press, splintering of TV channels and fall in linear TV, and explosion of online media and the fact I eschew Facebook, Instagram, Netflix and Amazon Prime (and am not active on Twitter, though will read links from here), and I don't follow any famous Youtubers or podcasters, I've found myself increasingly out of touch with what media sources many people are consuming these days. At least re news, I know BBC Online has a strong presence still even with younger consumers, and I sometimes look at the Guardian and the Mail Online which are both relatively popular. I notice I'm increasingly of touch with the under-thirties and it's not just on music!!

Anyone got any suggestions for how to build some bridges with the young'uns?

Time_to_Leave

I’m intrigued by the legal position. But then I suppose, absent a written constitution, Parliament can defer any election for as long as it likes.

Not the most important issue right now, but this is a godsend for Labour, you’d think.

kle4

david_herdson said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1238490825086173184

What happens with by-elections? Easy for government to forget them, but areas cannot be left unrepresented for long periods.

Nevertheless, with the EC requesting it it would have been bold to keep them going, even with massive poll leads to look forward to.

Sandpit

rottenborough said:

There is, in fact, a real danger to people standing on their soapboxes. It’s clear that we are fast approaching a situation that will become akin to a war, where the public is asked to accept unprecedented sacrifices, and where the effect on the “home front” will be the most profound since the end of the Second World War.

If people with limited knowledge whip up rhetoric against the official advice, then this undermines confidence in the very people who are keeping us as safe as possible.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/13/questioning-governments-coronavirus-strategy-not-wrong-danger/

It sounds like the penny is slowly dropping on Fleet St.

kyf_100

MyBurningEars said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

I find it oddly comforting that you read the Daily Star.

Do they still do a tit count?

- I didn't read it! God.

...snip...

Anyone got any suggestions for how to build some bridges with the young'uns?

Tik tok.

kle4

I dispute this header. Khan doesn't look a certainty, he is a certainty.

tyson

AlwaysSinging said:

Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread I'll repost...

FPT:

Good evening, PB.

I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.

The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.

-- AS

Hello.......AS

PB kept me sane.....a fine example of an oxymoron......

Gardenwalker

MyBurningEars said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

I find it oddly comforting that you read the Daily Star.

Do they still do a tit count?

- I didn't read it! God.

There is an advantage to occasionally reading the Star, Sun, Mirror, Express, even (gasp) the Daily Mail. Or at least there was when newspaper readership was higher, I don't do it so much anymore. My usual source was abandoned copies on buses, trains or the tube, but that's probably not very covidsafe! Most of us have a critical awareness about our own media and information diet, and how that shapes our worldview. But we are massively outnumbered by people on very different information diets to us. Dipping in to what they see can help us see the world through their eyes.

With the decline of the press, splintering of TV channels and fall in linear TV, and explosion of online media and the fact I eschew Facebook, Instagram, Netflix and Amazon Prime (and am not active on Twitter, though will read links from here), and I don't follow any famous Youtubers or podcasters, I've found myself increasingly out of touch with what media sources many people are consuming these days. At least re news, I know BBC Online has a strong presence still even with younger consumers, and I sometimes look at the Guardian and the Mail Online which are both relatively popular. I notice I'm increasingly of touch with the under-thirties and it's not just on music!!

Anyone got any suggestions for how to build some bridges with the young'uns?

TikTok.
Don’t call them Young’uns.
Familiarise yourself with the works of Dua Lipa.

Having said that I am only 41 and the gap between me and “young people” is already a chasm.

tyson

I've just hit my Conavirus supplies, and wolfed down a good chunk of Pringles

Gardenwalker

Fpt

Apropos of nothing, a young Corbynite student type I work with just messaged me and said:

“Herd immunity? OK, let’s leave 1.3m to die.”

I’m not sure how she derived that number, but I share because perhaps the governments message will *not* be accepted unthinkingly by the whole population.

algarkirk

Time_to_Leave said:

I’m intrigued by the legal position. But then I suppose, absent a written constitution, Parliament can defer any election for as long as it likes.

Not the most important issue right now, but this is a godsend for Labour, you’d think.

Elections are governed by statute. To postpone will probably require either an SI or legislation unless a statute allows a minister to order it some other way.

Sunil_Prasannan

***GUITAR RIFF FROM "28 DAYS LATER"***

kle4

MyBurningEars said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

I find it oddly comforting that you read the Daily Star.

Do they still do a tit count?

- I didn't read it! God.

There is an advantage to occasionally reading the Star, Sun, Mirror, Express, even (gasp) the Daily Mail. Or at least there was when newspaper readership was higher, I don't do it so much anymore. My usual source was abandoned copies on buses, trains or the tube, but that's probably not very covidsafe! Most of us have a critical awareness about our own media and information diet, and how that shapes our worldview. But we are massively outnumbered by people on very different information diets to us. Dipping in to what they see can help us see the world through their eyes.

With the decline of the press, splintering of TV channels and fall in linear TV, and explosion of online media and the fact I eschew Facebook, Instagram, Netflix and Amazon Prime (and am not active on Twitter, though will read links from here), and I don't follow any famous Youtubers or podcasters, I've found myself increasingly out of touch with what media sources many people are consuming these days. At least re news, I know BBC Online has a strong presence still even with younger consumers, and I sometimes look at the Guardian and the Mail Online which are both relatively popular. I notice I'm increasingly of touch with the under-thirties and it's not just on music!!

Anyone got any suggestions for how to build some bridges with the young'uns?

Take up video gaming. It's so varied there's something for everyone and even if its a genre not hugely popular with da yoof it allows for shared language and culture. That'll build a bridge through shared consumption without having to take a plunge into all youth focused media.

eristdoof

JM1 said:

eristdoof said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eristdoof said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Italy daily update

2116 new infections
250 new deaths
181 new healed

I believe that is a significant reduction in new cases if that is any glimmer of hope.

That is not what I see in the figures available to me, but different websites use different time points for counting. Can you please justify this claim that the new cases in the last 24 hours is a significant reduction?

I actually misread Wikipedia. I thought it had 12162 / 15113 (for 11/12),but actually says was 12462 / 15113. So it is a reduction, but not ~3000 to ~2000.

Ok, thanks. We also have to be careful when using the very latest data, as they could well be for just part of the day. This depends on whether the data are published daily or several times a day. Eg. Worldometers has currently +2547 new cases in Italy since midnight GMT.

If you are interested, all the Italian data is here: https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19 It's interesting to look at the trends here and to fit various models. Clearly very bad but I would not getting worse in terms of the fraction of positive cases per day etc., so if it follows a typical Gaussian pattern, a few more days of fairly consistent growth, followed by a decline in new cases in 7-10 days or so (i.e., that will be the Italian peak). But let's see...

Thanks for the data source, Github has plenty of gems lurking around. I would be great to use it, lets see if I can find the time to analyse it in detail. If not I can give it to a student to work with.

I do expect the Italian total cases to become linear at some point then level off. I don't like using just the last two day's data to claim that the pattern has changed.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a disgrace, my bets are going to be voided.

It's a disaster. The London Mayoral election has been an absolute zinger, I had quite a bit on Sadiq Khan at super odds. Did Boris not think of the punters?

I know, Boris Johnson hates me, this is his revenge.

Just dawned on me these London Mayoral will coincide with Scottish and Welsh parliament/assembly elections.

The betting during the counts will be fun that night.

tyson

eadric said:

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1238527916096524296?s=20

Feck.

I work in the Ministry of Justice and expect to be re-deployed in a couple of months or face being disciplined.....

rcs1000

algarkirk said:

Time_to_Leave said:

I’m intrigued by the legal position. But then I suppose, absent a written constitution, Parliament can defer any election for as long as it likes.

Not the most important issue right now, but this is a godsend for Labour, you’d think.

Elections are governed by statute. To postpone will probably require either an SI or legislation unless a statute allows a minister to order it some other way.

The Civil Contingencies Act allows local elections to postponed by the Executive in certain circumstances. Like a pandemic.

Stark_Dawning

Sunil_Prasannan said:

***GUITAR RIFF FROM "28 DAYS LATER"***

28 Weeks Later?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6OtF7daIPM

Sunil_Prasannan

tyson said:

I've just hit my Conavirus supplies, and wolfed down a good chunk of Pringles

No anti-bac wipes in Ilford North's Sainsbury's, B & M, Tesco, Aldi, or Boots. Luckily, got a couple of packs left.

williamglenn

rottenborough said:

There is, in fact, a real danger to people standing on their soapboxes. It’s clear that we are fast approaching a situation that will become akin to a war, where the public is asked to accept unprecedented sacrifices, and where the effect on the “home front” will be the most profound since the end of the Second World War.

If people with limited knowledge whip up rhetoric against the official advice, then this undermines confidence in the very people who are keeping us as safe as possible.

Gordon Brown: In the coronavirus crisis, our leaders are failing us

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-crisis-leaders-failing-gordon-brown

rcs1000

Disney: presumably its stock is down because it has cruises and theme parks.

But their streaming service has to be going through the roof right now.

kle4

Will the elections go back on cycle after the delay I wonder?

Foss

Sunil_Prasannan said:

***GUITAR RIFF FROM "28 DAYS LATER"***

If it's the riff I'm thinking of, then that's an abridged version of Godspeed You! Black Emperor's 'East Hastings'. The longer version is better.

eristdoof

AlwaysSinging said:

Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread I'll repost...

FPT:

Good evening, PB.

I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.

The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.

-- AS

Welcome. Are you SAT or B? Or do you just "Sing whatever"?

ydoethur

david_herdson said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1238490825086173184

If that is true, the education system in this country is going to be more comprehensively fucked than a reluctant Turkish conscript who then transitions and becomes a female intern working for Bill Clinton.

University exams start at the beginning of May. GCSEs and AS levels on the 11th. A-levels on the 18th.

Postponing any or all of them will cause utter chaos that could literally take years to sort out.

nichomar

From tomorrow my terrace will be open to a select few for evening drinks, you have to bring your own, sit a meter apart and show no signs of the bug but it’s better than nothing.

kle4

rcs1000 said:

Disney: presumably its stock is down because it has cruises and theme parks.

But their streaming service has to be going through the roof right now.

Someone, I forget who, yesterday suggested the streaming companies could make a packet by offering free subscriptions for the duration of the emergency, on the basis a lot of people who did not use them before would keep it on afterwards. I suppose one difficulty would be pissing off all the people currently still paying to use it.

kle4

ydoethur said:

david_herdson said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1238490825086173184

If that is true, the education system in this country is going to be more comprehensively fucked than a reluctant Turkish conscript who then transitions and becomes a female intern working for Bill Clinton.

University exams start at the beginning of May. GCSEs and AS levels on the 11th. A-levels on the 18th.

Postponing any or all of them will cause utter chaos that could literally take years to sort out.

That's so bad I wished you'd employed the shit sandwich technique to cushion it at least.

Chameleon

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/statsministeren-danmarks-graenser-lukker-fra-klokken-12-i-morgen

Denmark closing borders to all non citizens from midday tomorrow

kle4

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

There is, in fact, a real danger to people standing on their soapboxes. It’s clear that we are fast approaching a situation that will become akin to a war, where the public is asked to accept unprecedented sacrifices, and where the effect on the “home front” will be the most profound since the end of the Second World War.

If people with limited knowledge whip up rhetoric against the official advice, then this undermines confidence in the very people who are keeping us as safe as possible.

Gordon Brown: In the coronavirus crisis, our leaders are failing us

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-crisis-leaders-failing-gordon-brown

At least when he talks about 'our leaders' he is trying to take a global view of things (why note, he did save it after all).

Casino_Royale

tyson said:

I've just hit my Conavirus supplies, and wolfed down a good chunk of Pringles

You savage.

Sunil_Prasannan

Foss said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

***GUITAR RIFF FROM "28 DAYS LATER"***

If it's the riff I'm thinking of, then that's an abridged version of Godspeed You! Black Emperor's 'East Hastings'. The longer version is better.

"In the House, In a Heartbeat" - John Murphy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_UFqw3vm0s

algarkirk

Gardenwalker said:

Fpt

Apropos of nothing, a young Corbynite student type I work with just messaged me and said:

“Herd immunity? OK, let’s leave 1.3m to die.”

I’m not sure how she derived that number, but I share because perhaps the governments message will *not* be accepted unthinkingly by the whole population.

It is 2% of population. No doubt Corbynistas think that the wicked Tories plan to kill 1.3 million people out of sheer spite and disdain. But what these Hitlerian sloganists are actually arguing with is some carefully thought out science and medicine from the top people in the UK, a world centre of excellence in epidemiology. Unless the Corbynista has a better plan they have little to offer a waiting world.

kle4

eadric said:

It's my kids that sadden me. Yes they will probably survive, but what sort of world will they inherit? How much of their extended family will get through?

We're heading into a war. It's hideous. I wish to God I had been wrong.

You're analogy of it being a war kind of answers the point - it can be surprising after the most devastating wars or pandemics how much doesn't change. Plenty does, especially with the huge ones, but humans and human society weather these things a lot better than we tend to think. And that's not being complacent about the threat, just that society is more durable than people think, even when we're all a lot more snowflakey.

rcs1000

eadric said:

It's my kids that sadden me. Yes they will probably survive, but what sort of world will they inherit? How much of their extended family will get through?

We're heading into a war. It's hideous. I wish to God I had been wrong.

The price of Camden apartments will probably collapse in the depopulated future. Those that own them would be better of chucking them in and taking a huge loss, rather than keeping them as millstones round their necks.

nichomar

I think they have also shut the beaches!

ydoethur

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

david_herdson said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1238490825086173184

If that is true, the education system in this country is going to be more comprehensively fucked than a reluctant Turkish conscript who then transitions and becomes a female intern working for Bill Clinton.

University exams start at the beginning of May. GCSEs and AS levels on the 11th. A-levels on the 18th.

Postponing any or all of them will cause utter chaos that could literally take years to sort out.

That's so bad I wished you'd employed the shit sandwich technique to cushion it at least.

My awesome simile does not soften it?

What’s really annoying me is that the disease itself will almost certainly be much less dangerous than the reaction to it. I can only conclude, for example, that Leo Varadkar is either insane or trying to force a government of national unity. Because his measures bear no resemblance to the actual situation in Ireland.

kle4

tyson said:

I've just hit my Conavirus supplies, and wolfed down a good chunk of Pringles

Do not eat a whole tube in an evening, I warn you. Took me several such evenings before I learned my stupid lesson on that.

eristdoof

Sunil_Prasannan said:

***GUITAR RIFF FROM "28 DAYS LATER"***

I used to assume that "28 days later" was a sequel to "28 days", well it did come out 2 years after the first one.

I felt really silly when someone told me they were totally different, and 28 days later is good.

kinabalu

Gardenwalker said:

Fpt

Apropos of nothing, a young Corbynite student type I work with just messaged me and said:

“Herd immunity? OK, let’s leave 1.3m to die.”

I’m not sure how she derived that number, but I share because perhaps the governments message will *not* be accepted unthinkingly by the whole population.

It's that "herd" word. It's a rather determinst and cold way to describe the population of a proud and venerable island nation.

The Will of the Herd?

Sounds all wrong.

rcs1000

JM1 said:

Oh, absolutely! Two days of data are clearly insufficient for anything statistically significant. But the provincial level data (especially for Lodi / Cremona) does suggest that the epidemic might have peaked already and that the rest of Lombardy is beginning to follow a similar trend (I could use R to analyse but also might give it to a student ;-))

Isolation measures cause cases to collapse.

We know this.

It's worked in South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

That's not the problem. The problem is what happens when you lift the restrictions.

The UK government is following the policy of allowing a large-ish number of people to get infected before implementing draconian measures. Other governments have different policies. Only time will tell which is right.

Andy_JS

"The Internet Can’t Save Us From Loneliness in Pandemic
Forced isolation only deepens the emptiness we often feel when communicating by screen
People who spend more time online are less happy, but what are we to do when connecting with people online is our only option?

By Christopher Mims"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-internet-cant-save-us-from-loneliness-in-pandemic-11583958251?mod=hp_lead_pos10

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/jakubkrupa/status/1238531290636472321?s=21

MyBurningEars

Thank you for the advice downthread. If signing up to TikTok is the price of reconnecting with the yoof'o'today, perhaps the time has come to accept the ravages of time itself.

More topically...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnf74nttz9E

Most of them are not standing two metres apart and many of the dance moves seem to involve repeatedly touching the face, so I'm not sure what good this message is doing...

Charles

AlwaysSinging said:

Typical - my first ever post gets orphaned at the end of a thread I'll repost...

FPT:

Good evening, PB.

I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.

The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.

-- AS

On the plus side, you doubled the number of likes you got.

Welcome

Chameleon

Andy_JS said:

"The Internet Can’t Save Us From Loneliness in Pandemic
Forced isolation only deepens the emptiness we often feel when communicating by screen
People who spend more time online are less happy, but what are we to do when connecting with people online is our only option?

By Christopher Mims"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-internet-cant-save-us-from-loneliness-in-pandemic-11583958251?mod=hp_lead_pos10

Voice chat helps a lot in my experience.

Malmesbury

eadric said:

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1238527916096524296?s=20

Feck.

I believe this is Evul Stuuuupid Tory Policy - see Farcebook and reddut for detailed explanations.

Or is it different if other countries do this?

ydoethur

Andy_JS said:

"The Internet Can’t Save Us From Loneliness in Pandemic
Forced isolation only deepens the emptiness we often feel when communicating by screen
People who spend more time online are less happy, but what are we to do when connecting with people online is our only option?

By Christopher Mims"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-internet-cant-save-us-from-loneliness-in-pandemic-11583958251?mod=hp_lead_pos10

Well, that’s all of us screwed then.

Charles

eadric said:

Welcome to AlwaysSinging

We need someone to cheer us with the odd inspirational hymn

He who would valiant be?

Charles

eadric said:

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1238527916096524296?s=20

Feck.

And yet Boris was criticised for doing this days ago

FeersumEnjineeya

rcs1000 said:

JM1 said:

Oh, absolutely! Two days of data are clearly insufficient for anything statistically significant. But the provincial level data (especially for Lodi / Cremona) does suggest that the epidemic might have peaked already and that the rest of Lombardy is beginning to follow a similar trend (I could use R to analyse but also might give it to a student ;-))

Isolation measures cause cases to collapse.

We know this.

It's worked in South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

That's not the problem. The problem is what happens when you lift the restrictions.

The UK government is following the policy of allowing a large-ish number of people to get infected before implementing draconian measures. Other governments have different policies. Only time will tell which is right.

Surely it would be possible to gradually lift restrictions while keeping an eye on the rate of new infections? Then, if they start to tick up too much, reimpose some of the restrictions. You could vary the restrictions imposed so as not to come down disproportionately on particular sections of the public. You'd still eventually attain herd immunity, but without overwhelming your health system in the process.

tyson

Casino_Royale said:

tyson said:

I've just hit my Conavirus supplies, and wolfed down a good chunk of Pringles

You savage.

I liked your post from the previous thread about Brexit....

I wish we were all still bickering about Brexit for obvious reasons.....it all appears such a long time ago.....


Just think this one thing....if the authorities in Wuhan had isolated that unusual cluster of patients with pneumonia quickly at the end of November, this Covid malarky would have probably got a couple of paragraphs in the world section of the Guardian.....

Instead...we are looking at an event that is going to define the world for generations....

Mysticrose

Always Singing - welcome.

Lovely Username. Give us a song?

x

MarqueeMark

Time_to_Leave said:

I’m intrigued by the legal position. But then I suppose, absent a written constitution, Parliament can defer any election for as long as it likes.

Not the most important issue right now, but this is a godsend for Labour, you’d think.

Hard to know. If Boris gets us through this with a lot less deaths than are currently feared, he will carry all before him.

AlastairMeeks

Charles said:

eadric said:

Welcome to AlwaysSinging

We need someone to cheer us with the odd inspirational hymn

He who would valiant be?

Nearer My God To Thee would be more the pb mood today.

Andy_JS

I hope we don't cave in to populism as far as the British expert advice is concerned.

Charles

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/statsministeren-danmarks-graenser-lukker-fra-klokken-12-i-morgen

Denmark closing borders to all non citizens from midday tomorrow

I said all international air travel would cease in a fortnight, about a week back.

It looks now like ALL international travel, of any kind, will end.

Was that before or after I passed on my tip from the WH?

BluestBlue

ydoethur said:

david_herdson said:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1238490825086173184

If that is true, the education system in this country is going to be more comprehensively fucked than a reluctant Turkish conscript who then transitions and becomes a female intern working for Bill Clinton.

University exams start at the beginning of May. GCSEs and AS levels on the 11th. A-levels on the 18th.

Postponing any or all of them will cause utter chaos that could literally take years to sort out.

Even the Ireland & Craven scholarship examinations at Oxford were suspended during the world wars.

They'll get over it.

RochdalePioneers

This is going to be fun* isn't it...

Up here the cancellation of the Tees Valley Mayoral means that Ben Houchen has another 12 months to either utterly cement his place as a man who delivers his promises or the man who bankrupted the Combined Authority by wasting all its cash on a now bankrupt airport.

Sadly the day where the awful Jessie Joe Jacobs gets demolished as Labour's candidate is also delayed.

Gardenwalker

Does anyone just feel an enervating sense of dread?

Denmark closes its borders, then Poland...
Impossible to concentrate on work.

Mysticrose

eadric said:

It's my kids that sadden me. Yes they will probably survive, but what sort of world will they inherit? How much of their extended family will get through?

We're heading into a war. It's hideous. I wish to God I had been wrong.

Yep. With you all the way.

At the rate we are going it won't matter that Bonkers Boris doesn't want to shut our borders. Everywhere else will have done so no one will be able to come and go from here either.

This is primarily about lives and families. The desperate messages coming out of Italy today about people dying on their own, lucid to the end as they knew their fate but totally alone, are harrowing.

House prices are, perhaps, less of an issue. Be grateful for a roof over your head. I doubt people will be moving anywhere.

It's also about the economic impact. The stock markets are still nowhere near bottoming out. The knock-on effects of this across all industries are in nascent shape. It will take months and months for the ripples to become tidal waves as industry after industry collapses.

There has, quite simply, been nothing like it globally since the Second World War.

tyson

Andy_JS said:

I hope we don't cave in to populism as far as the British expert advice is concerned.

Andy...the British Expert Advice doesn't speak with one voice....the Govt has temporarily coalesced around a position that is untenable.....

Charles

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

eadric said:

Welcome to AlwaysSinging

We need someone to cheer us with the odd inspirational hymn

He who would valiant be?

Nearer My God To Thee would be more the pb mood today.

Leading the minority charge

MyBurningEars

FeersumEnjineeya said:

rcs1000 said:

JM1 said:

Oh, absolutely! Two days of data are clearly insufficient for anything statistically significant. But the provincial level data (especially for Lodi / Cremona) does suggest that the epidemic might have peaked already and that the rest of Lombardy is beginning to follow a similar trend (I could use R to analyse but also might give it to a student ;-))

Isolation measures cause cases to collapse.

We know this.

It's worked in South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

That's not the problem. The problem is what happens when you lift the restrictions.

The UK government is following the policy of allowing a large-ish number of people to get infected before implementing draconian measures. Other governments have different policies. Only time will tell which is right.

Surely it would be possible to gradually lift restrictions while keeping an eye on the rate of new infections? Then, if they start to tick up too much, reimpose some of the restrictions. You could vary the restrictions imposed so as not to come down disproportionately on particular sections of the public. You'd still eventually attain herd immunity, but without overwhelming your health system in the process.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaoVg6ejgRQ

You may find this speech by the PM of Singapore interesting. Explicitly talks about this being for the long haul, a year or more, and how they do plan to ramp extra restrictions up and down. So your strategy sounds very much like theirs.

You can also watch the same speech in Chinese. Impressive smarts and confident delivery - wonder how many Americans would take a Lee Hsien Loong - Donald Trump swap right now. And how many Singaporeans... (FWIW I don't like his repressive domestic policies at all, and I'm not even sure how many Singaporeans do - the ones I know find the levels of repression there very disturbing, but they're obviously more western-oriented ones.)

Floater

Malmesbury said:

eadric said:

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1238527916096524296?s=20

Feck.

I believe this is Evul Stuuuupid Tory Policy - see Farcebook and reddut for detailed explanations.

Or is it different if other countries do this?

If others do it - a superb proportional response

MarqueeMark

kle4 said:

rcs1000 said:

Disney: presumably its stock is down because it has cruises and theme parks.

But their streaming service has to be going through the roof right now.

Someone, I forget who, yesterday suggested the streaming companies could make a packet by offering free subscriptions for the duration of the emergency, on the basis a lot of people who did not use them before would keep it on afterwards. I suppose one difficulty would be pissing off all the people currently still paying to use it.

T'was me I think. But you'd have to be a miserable git to complain that people are being helped out during the crisis.

OldKingCole

Charles said:

eadric said:

Welcome to AlwaysSinging

We need someone to cheer us with the odd inspirational hymn

He who would valiant be?

All things bright and beautiful,
All creatures great and small
All things wise and wonderful
The Lord God made them all.


We shouldn't forget!

Mysticrose

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

rcs1000 said:

Disney: presumably its stock is down because it has cruises and theme parks.

But their streaming service has to be going through the roof right now.

Someone, I forget who, yesterday suggested the streaming companies could make a packet by offering free subscriptions for the duration of the emergency, on the basis a lot of people who did not use them before would keep it on afterwards. I suppose one difficulty would be pissing off all the people currently still paying to use it.

T'was me I think. But you'd have to be a miserable git to complain that people are being helped out during the crisis.

Apparently Netflix subscriptions have rocketed

Foss

eadric said:

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1238527916096524296?s=20

Feck.

Has this actually been confirmed? 'DiscloseTV' appear to be the only people reporting it.

YBarddCwsc

tyson said:

Andy_JS said:

I hope we don't cave in to populism as far as the British expert advice is concerned.

Andy...the British Expert Advice doesn't speak with one voice....the Govt has temporarily coalesced around a position that is untenable.....

Professors Nigel Farage and Piers Morgan are nodding in assent to the wise words of Professor tyson.

Mysticrose

I think this seldom-sung Charles Wesley hymn hits the right spot. Whatever one's faith, or none, it is magnificent:

Jesu, lover of my soul
Let me to Thy bosom fly,
While the gathering waters roll,
While the tempest still is high:
Hide me, O my Saviour, hide,
Till the storm of life is past;
Safe into the haven guide;
O receive my soul at last.


Other refuge have I none,
Hangs my helpless soul on Thee;
Leave, oh, leave me not alone,
Still support and comfort me.
All my trust on Thee is stayed,
All my help from Thee I bring;
Cover my defenceless head
With the shadow of Thy wing.


Plenteous grace with Thee is found,
Grace to cover all my sin;
Let the healing streams abound;
Make and keep me pure within.
Thou of life the fountain art,
Freely let me take of Thee;
Spring Thou up within my heart,
Rise to all eternity.

OldKingCole

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

rcs1000 said:

Disney: presumably its stock is down because it has cruises and theme parks.

But their streaming service has to be going through the roof right now.

Someone, I forget who, yesterday suggested the streaming companies could make a packet by offering free subscriptions for the duration of the emergency, on the basis a lot of people who did not use them before would keep it on afterwards. I suppose one difficulty would be pissing off all the people currently still paying to use it.

T'was me I think. But you'd have to be a miserable git to complain that people are being helped out during the crisis.

I'd say do you want to bet on there been no such miserable gits, but since this is a betting site, you probably would!

ydoethur

eadric said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

eadric said:

Welcome to AlwaysSinging

We need someone to cheer us with the odd inspirational hymn

He who would valiant be?

Nearer My God To Thee would be more the pb mood today.

Abide With Me might come in handy


The most beautiful lyrics of any hymn ever:


Abide with me; fast falls the eventide;
The darkness deepens; Lord, with me abide;
When other helpers fail and comforts flee,
Help of the helpless, oh, abide with me.

Swift to its close ebbs out life’s little day;
Earth’s joys grow dim, its glories pass away;
Change and decay in all around I see—
O Thou who changest not, abide with me.

I need Thy presence every passing hour;
What but Thy grace can foil the tempter’s pow’r?
Who, like Thyself, my guide and stay can be?
Through cloud and sunshine, Lord, abide with me.

I fear no foe, with Thee at hand to bless;
Ills have no weight, and tears no bitterness;
Where is death’s sting? Where, grave, thy victory?
I triumph still, if Thou abide with me.

Hold Thou Thy cross before my closing eyes;
Shine through the gloom and point me to the skies;
Heav’n’s morning breaks, and earth’s vain shadows flee;
In life, in death, O Lord, abide with me.


I can never hear it without feeling the prickle of almost-tears. The words were written by a Scottish Anglican of very right wing views, who had showed no such amazing talent before penning this. He wrote the words in the last fortnight of his life, as he died of tuberculosis. The hymn was sung at his funeral.

Just for Eadric:
https://youtu.be/t3zNCg55kiw

Animal_pb

eadric said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/jakubkrupa/status/1238531290636472321?s=21

"The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time*"

*hopefully that's an exaggeration: BUT we are now seeing, at first hand, what it is like for the nation to go into a serious, potentially devastating war

No one under 80 has a memory of anything like this.

We’ll cope, Sean. This is a nation that knows how to survive a war. We’ll take our losses, mourn the fallen, then pick up the pieces and carry on. We’re not so different from our (admittedly slightly hardier) forebears.

kingbongo

Just finished watching the Danish PMs press conference - Denmark is closing its borders - if you don't live here or can prove you have a job here you won't get in - there are a few vague ideas about visiting children etc but the rules kick in tomorrow at midday.

Effectively this is the end of flights to/from Denmark, all the land borders will be secured and I suspect unless you are driving a Danish car with your health card (which effectively is your ID card here) you will find it difficuly to get in. Goods traffic unaffected.

AlwaysSinging

Thank you for your kind welcomes. To answer Eristdoof's question, I'm a Bar often pressed into service as a T, but nowadays more of a conductor than a prole singer.

At this time I would sing something resolute. "I Will Lift Mine Eyes", perhaps the lovely setting by Jake Runestad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1KUjQ2v7fk

IshmaelZ

eadric said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Charles said:

eadric said:

Welcome to AlwaysSinging

We need someone to cheer us with the odd inspirational hymn

He who would valiant be?

Nearer My God To Thee would be more the pb mood today.

Abide With Me might come in handy


The most beautiful lyrics of any hymn ever:


Abide with me; fast falls the eventide;
The darkness deepens; Lord, with me abide;
When other helpers fail and comforts flee,
Help of the helpless, oh, abide with me.

Swift to its close ebbs out life’s little day;
Earth’s joys grow dim, its glories pass away;
Change and decay in all around I see—
O Thou who changest not, abide with me.

I need Thy presence every passing hour;
What but Thy grace can foil the tempter’s pow’r?
Who, like Thyself, my guide and stay can be?
Through cloud and sunshine, Lord, abide with me.

I fear no foe, with Thee at hand to bless;
Ills have no weight, and tears no bitterness;
Where is death’s sting? Where, grave, thy victory?
I triumph still, if Thou abide with me.

Hold Thou Thy cross before my closing eyes;
Shine through the gloom and point me to the skies;
Heav’n’s morning breaks, and earth’s vain shadows flee;
In life, in death, O Lord, abide with me.


I can never hear it without feeling the prickle of almost-tears. The words were written by a Scottish Anglican of very right wing views, who had showed no such amazing talent before penning this. He wrote the words in the last fortnight of his life, as he died of tuberculosis. The hymn was sung at his funeral.

Up there with Keep me in your heart for a while by Warren Zevon. Won't do the whole thing, just two lines:

If I leave you it doesn't mean I love you any less

and

There's a train leaving nightly called, "When all is said and done."

not_on_fire

Animal_pb said:

eadric said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/jakubkrupa/status/1238531290636472321?s=21

"The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time*"

*hopefully that's an exaggeration: BUT we are now seeing, at first hand, what it is like for the nation to go into a serious, potentially devastating war

No one under 80 has a memory of anything like this.

We’ll cope, Sean. This is a nation that knows how to survive a war. We’ll take our losses, mourn the fallen, then pick up the pieces and carry on. We’re not so different from our (admittedly slightly hardier) forebears.

Enough of the WW2 mythology. 90% of the population have no memory of the war.

ydoethur

Mysticrose said:

I think this seldom-sung Charles Wesley hymn hits the right spot. Whatever one's faith, or none, it is magnificent:

Jesu, lover of my soul
Let me to Thy bosom fly,
While the gathering waters roll,
While the tempest still is high:
Hide me, O my Saviour, hide,
Till the storm of life is past;
Safe into the haven guide;
O receive my soul at last.


Other refuge have I none,
Hangs my helpless soul on Thee;
Leave, oh, leave me not alone,
Still support and comfort me.
All my trust on Thee is stayed,
All my help from Thee I bring;
Cover my defenceless head
With the shadow of Thy wing.


Plenteous grace with Thee is found,
Grace to cover all my sin;
Let the healing streams abound;
Make and keep me pure within.
Thou of life the fountain art,
Freely let me take of Thee;
Spring Thou up within my heart,
Rise to all eternity.

How about this alternative Welsh hymn?

In heavenly love abiding,
no change my heart shall fear;
and safe is such confiding,
for nothing changes here:
the storm may roar without me,
my heart may low be laid;
but God is round about me,
and can I be dismayed?

Wherever he may guide me,
no want shall turn me back;
my Shepherd is beside me,
and nothing can I lack:
his wisdom ever waketh,
his sight is never dim,
he knows the way he taketh,
and I will walk with him.

Green pastures are before me,
which yet I have not seen;
bright skies will soon be o'er me,
where darkest clouds have been;
my hope I cannot measure,
my path to life is free;
my Saviour has my treasure,
and he will walk with me.

GideonWise

Gardenwalker said:

Does anyone just feel an enervating sense of dread?

Denmark closes its borders, then Poland...
Impossible to concentrate on work.

Yes it is a sense of grief for the world now gone. I've gone through various of the phases. Depression for a long time. Now I'm at acceptance.

Andy_JS

The FluCamp website.

https://flucamp.com