I think that and related questions are why Boris has been slow to be the one to ban things/close things/stop things. He is letting them do it themselves so he is not the one who has to make the call to start them up again.
And it is working.
Slower than it should have, and loads of people with stupid bosses are still working at the office because the PM won't lead. The optimistic case for the UK is that it ends up doing basically the same as Japan, because everybody ignores the government.
I do not accept that.
Boris stark warning this week has really cut through and everyone seems to be talking about safeguarding themselves and of course sport worldwide has been cancelled in the last few days and in so doing attendances. I expect the grand national to be cancelled
And each week the schools are open ten of thousands carry on earning without total disruption to their lives
Boris following advice is spot on.
Can you imagine if he had called it against the advice. No I do not accept your view on this
You hear the advice you want to through the prism of your ideology....
Do you think a Labour PM- more statist, likely to believe that the state can be a power for good, more rooted in public services....was likely do what Boris did?
Nonsense.
I hear the two most important experts in the field who are up front in the media providing the advice Boris is accepting
This is not a political response, I would expect Starmer to do the same
Indeed Cobra includes Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster from across the political divide
This is not my political ideology or indeed any ology
I think that and related questions are why Boris has been slow to be the one to ban things/close things/stop things. He is letting them do it themselves so he is not the one who has to make the call to start them up again.
And it is working.
Slower than it should have, and loads of people with stupid bosses are still working at the office because the PM won't lead. The optimistic case for the UK is that it ends up doing basically the same as Japan, because everybody ignores the government.
I do not accept that.
Boris stark warning this week has really cut through and everyone seems to be talking about safeguarding themselves and of course sport worldwide has been cancelled in the last few days and in so doing attendances. I expect the grand national to be cancelled
And each week the schools are open ten of thousands carry on earning without total disruption to their lives
Boris following advice is spot on.
Can you imagine if he had called it against the advice. No I do not accept your view on this
You hear the advice you want to through the prism of your ideology....
Do you think a Labour PM- more statist, likely to believe that the state can be a power for good, more rooted in public services....was likely do what Boris did?
I think a Labour PM would have followed the advice of his CMO and CSO.
I even think Jeremy Corbyn would have.
And that is to their credit.
It is to their credit that you think they would do that?
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
I went to my Sainsbury's this lunch time.....it was like a war zone...still I managed to source some Pringles, spinach, garlic and wine
I've got a mate who's maintenance manager at a posh country house hotel and restaurant. They just about tick over on the rooms and covers, but the big money, the money that really keeps them afloat, comes from events and weddings during the summer. They've got circa a quarter of a mill in weddings alone booked up until September. The weddings are starting to get cancelled by nervous couples. He thinks the hotel will be bust by July.
There are a whole range of industries where if you cant run for three months with zero income you are in deep trouble. Lets hope for a hot summer.
Boris has done well this week. He has taken a big political risk to follow the scientific advice and used his communication skills to cut through.
That deserves respect. Boris has been a class A malignant shit over Brexit, but on this so far, so good.
I can only hope that behind closed doors the government is scrutinising the advice it is getting.
I am super critical of most politicians, but I can't even start to imagine what the pressure is like at the moment. We aren't talking about spaffing money on a silly bridge idea or whether to put on extra buses.
I only hope we can go back to taking the piss out of them for going to Gregg's or getting stuck on a zip wire sooner rather than later.
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
I went to my Sainsbury's this lunch time.....it was like a war zone...still I managed to source some Pringles, spinach, garlic and wine
Maybe it's something weird about Sainsbury's?!?!
Insanesbury's....
Worse in madsda.
Wait til we've all been co-oped up for weeks on end....
Had a slightly odd psychological experience on that issue this evening.
In the supermarket I saw a big pallet of carex liquid hand wash being placed on the shelves.
Now I've not seen any of that for a few days (the posh brands and bar soap have always been available) and I really, really had a yearning to buy some.
I don't need to buy any more soap as I've got plenty and as I said there is always other types available.
But I still had that yearning to buy carex liquid hand wash because I hadn't seen any for a few days.
I didn't though.
What gets me is that shelves are bare of soap in dispenser bottles, and the empty shelves are right next door to shelves full of shower gel, body wash, and bath oils, all of which would be just as good for cleaning your hands. Shampoo and conditioner are in good supply still, and even washing up liquid will do if needed.
Boris has done well this week. He has taken a big political risk to follow the scientific advice and used his communication skills to cut through.
That deserves respect. Boris has been a class A malignant shit over Brexit, but on this so far, so good.
I can only hope that behind closed doors the government is scrutinising the advice it is getting.
I am super critical of most politicians, but I can't even start to imagine what the pressure is like at the moment. We aren't talking about spaffing money on a silly bridge idea or whether to put on extra buses.
It’s hard to imagine the pressure he’s under, and you have to feel for him. He’s getting the best possible scientific advice and sticking with it; against the pub bore nonsense saying we “should” do this or that (Piers Morgan I’m looking at you). And yet that advice might yet be wrong - he has to live with that. Every night. It would be so much easier for him to just do what everyone else is. Perhaps that “Mayor in Jaws” quote was prescient.
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
I went to my Sainsbury's this lunch time.....it was like a war zone...still I managed to source some Pringles, spinach, garlic and wine
Maybe it's something weird about Sainsbury's?!?!
Insanesbury's....
Worse in madsda.
Wait til we've all been co-oped up for weeks on end....
Trump saying they are considering adding the UK to tonight’s travel ban (not clear when)
Sounded like it was only being considered because a UK journalist asked the question saying things were getting worse in the UK. Not sure if I should be annoyed at her for that or grateful for reducing the number of potential Americans coming over if the situation in the US continues to deteriorate.
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
“Rest of Europe”? Apart from the countries that agree with us? And ignoring that action may be based on stages of advancement in the virus spread? And that some may be being overuled by the politicians?
Boris has done well this week. He has taken a big political risk to follow the scientific advice and used his communication skills to cut through.
That deserves respect. Boris has been a class A malignant shit over Brexit, but on this so far, so good.
I can only hope that behind closed doors the government is scrutinising the advice it is getting.
A calculated risk is being taken that exposing large numbers to the virus in the expectation the overwhelming majority will suffer no consequences will ensure future outbreaks are limited as large numbers will be immune.
The problem is those with pre-existing health conditions and other vulnerable individuals may be put at greater risk by coming into contact with those carrying the virus whose movements remain unrestricted.
IF the healthy start suffering adversely in large numbers, that strategy will be seen to have been in error and of course Boris can blame the experts and if it works he can take the credit so it's a case of heads I win, tails I also win.
Those countries who have opted for lock-down may be able to reduce further infection in the short term but by not exposing the mass of the population to the virus risk a renewed outbreak next winter once restrictions are lifted - assuming of course the virus returns as it has this year.
I think it's now impossible to avoid severe economic dislocation in the short to medium term - longer term there will be a revival of activity but there will be business casualties and confidence may be the first (after Flybe).
Trump saying they are considering adding the UK to tonight’s travel ban (not clear when)
Sounded like it was only being considered because a UK journalist asked the question saying things were getting worse in the UK. Not sure if I should be annoyed at her for that or grateful for reducing the number of potential Americans coming over if the situation in the US continues to deteriorate.
It was 100% made up on the spot, because he also wibbled about removing some countries currently on the list. No expert advice would be advocating this.
I wonder also if some politicians in the “rest of Europe” who are being told to crash their economies on scientific advice may be wishing they had our advisers?
What do people think will be the last stockpileable foodstuff to depart the shelves?
Polenta.
Given the Italian lockdown we might not see much dried pasta for months.
Though you can still buy lots of fresh pasta with a use by data of mid April.
Maybe this is why the nudge unit think the country can't last 3 months in lockdown...dried Fusilli for 90 days straight is going to get bloody boring quickly.
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
I went to my Sainsbury's this lunch time.....it was like a war zone...still I managed to source some Pringles, spinach, garlic and wine
Maybe it's something weird about Sainsbury's?!?!
Insanesbury's....
Worse in madsda.
Wait til we've all been co-oped up for weeks on end....
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
In Spain 3 days ago they shut the schools and universities - result masses of people decamped from areas of high to areas of low infection - we are now in two weeks of lockdown with numbers way worse than the UK. Stop talking partisan bollox and thank your lucky stars where you are!
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
It's not necessarily the case that any of these individuals is deficient. None of them knows everything, they're probably all giving well-reasoned advice, and we're only going to know which ones have made the right call when this is all over.
As hard as this will be for some people after what's happened over the last few years, they might wish to think twice about automatically assuming that British advice on this matter is better than that available in continental Europe, or vice-versa, just because one set of people providing it don't inhabit the EU and the others do.
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
HMG is not responsible for other countries
HMG is responsible to the UK and to follow the advice it is given
If they did not, you would be the first one to kick off
Sandy is beyond reason I am afraid. He is also factually incorrect given there are a number of other countries following the same basic idea as the UK. Germany and Sweden are the two most obvious examples.
For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
I wonder also if some politicians in the “rest of Europe” who are being told to crash their economies on scientific advice may be wishing they had our advisers?
They had to crash their economies because they left it too late to do what is now happening in Britain, much of it in spite of the PM - cancelling events, working from home etc. Hopefully the British still have time to avoid going into full production-stoppage lockdown mode but there's going to be a lot of growth in the next couple of weeks before we start to see results.
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
There are a lot of unknowns so it's not surprising that different experts will make a different judgement call.
It's possible that a better global outcome would be achieved if everyone decided on a single common approach. You might imagine some sort of global medical association that would play that role...
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
In Spain 3 days ago they shut the schools and universities - result masses of people decamped from areas of high to areas of low infection - we are now in two weeks of lockdown with numbers way worse than the UK. Stop talking partisan bollox and thank your lucky stars where you are!
Whilst I agree in general, can the effect really have resulted from a change 3 days ago. The question that isn’t being addressed is whether other countries are being quite so rigid as the U.K. in trusting their experts.
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
There are a lot of unknowns so it's not surprising that different experts will make a different judgement call.
It's possible that a better global outcome would be achieved if everyone decided on a single common approach. You might imagine some sort of global medical association that would play that role...
For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
If a million people have it, tens of millions will have it the following week.
For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
It would clobber anything where people need a lot of looking after - hospitals, old people's homes, daycare...
Guardian article about banning of mass gathering say in the bill on Monday there is provision for government compensation for cancellations.
Also, it states a mass work from home is going to be deployed shortly.
Again, I wonder if legal issues have complicated this announcement?
As we were discussing earlier, there’s something to be said for waiting long enough that this stuff starts to happen anyway and you know you have consent. Sounds like a nudge unit thing to do.
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
They have different situations. They have not (afaik or anyone has quoted on here) directly criticised the UK approach for the UK. The situation in many of the countries you are recommending we follow is significantly worse than it is here. Perhaps our team have got it right so far? Perhaps we will have similar actions when we reach a similar stage as them?
This is going to be bad. Not because of politicians, medics or scientists, but because its a once in a generation tough challenge we are not used to. We need to work as a team not try and sow discord.
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
There are a lot of unknowns so it's not surprising that different experts will make a different judgement call.
It's possible that a better global outcome would be achieved if everyone decided on a single common approach. You might imagine some sort of global medical association that would play that role...
Who might that be?
Don't worry, I'll get my coat.
Coat? Why? Where do you think you're going pal? You're in lockdown....
For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
This herd theory has all the philosophy of some kind of eugenic, cull- infect the entire population, kill off the oldies and the sick and we'll come through it with the master race who are Covid resistant.....
I wonder also if some politicians in the “rest of Europe” who are being told to crash their economies on scientific advice may be wishing they had our advisers?
They had to crash their economies because they left it too late to do what is now happening in Britain, much of it in spite of the PM - cancelling events, working from home etc. Hopefully the British still have time to avoid going into full production-stoppage lockdown mode but there's going to be a lot of growth in the next couple of weeks before we start to see results.
Their position in the league does make that decision an easy one no one can object to; but the Champion’s League spots are going to be tricky to sort out. The Man City ban may help I guess.
Guardian article about banning of mass gathering say in the bill on Monday there is provision for government compensation for cancellations.
Also, it states a mass work from home is going to be deployed shortly.
Again, I wonder if legal issues have complicated this announcement?
As we were discussing earlier, there’s something to be said for waiting long enough that this stuff starts to happen anyway and you know you have consent. Sounds like a nudge unit thing to do.
There is definitely a lot more going on than we know about. The egg-heads made it clear today this plan of action has been in the works since the start of January, it isn't just a knee-jerk reaction.
Perhaps they expected most other European countries to have a similar plan and given the tragic events in Italy have gone the politically less painful route which is shut everything down immediately.
Guardian article about banning of mass gathering say in the bill on Monday there is provision for government compensation for cancellations.
Also, it states a mass work from home is going to be deployed shortly.
Again, I wonder if legal issues have complicated this announcement?
"Mass gathering" will mean all weather race meetings will continue unaffected. At the midweek Kempton floodlight meetings they announce the crowd changes to the jockeys.
My wife is a teacher. She has really struggled with motivating herself to do all the pathetic garbage at school which even at the best of times is pathetic garbage. We are hoping the education establishment sees sense
Blimey. We are having multiple religious experiences right now. That’s asking for a miracle on a par with the raising of Lazarus.
If you've seen Ofsted's statement to Schoolsweek this afternoon, I wouldn't be optimistic. It's shameful stuff.
Policy papers are supposed to be clear and straightforward. Do you want to beat around the bush so there could be confusion?
The point is Charles it is not even a question that should arise for so many reasons. It is not the clarity that is at fault, it is the basic premise.
Given that schools are vectors for just about every virus that crops up, and there is no WFH for teachers, keeping them open, at a time the government is pursuing ‘herd immunity’ via infection, puts teachers directly in the firing line without choice.
If I were a teacher over the age of fifty, I’d be seriously pissed off, to put it mildly.
I’m sleeping about three or hours maximum. My physical and mental health are crumbling.
If they don’t announce changes, such as exemptions and the choice to work remotely, I think there will be a revolt.
For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
If a million people have it, tens of millions will have it the following week.
Not sure the herd immunity is planned to be achieved in one go. It is a multi year strategy. It is still true that the more that are immune before the first winter, the better.
So, the chief scientific officers and chief medical officers in the rest of Europe. Bunch of fuckwits are they?
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
In Spain 3 days ago they shut the schools and universities - result masses of people decamped from areas of high to areas of low infection - we are now in two weeks of lockdown with numbers way worse than the UK. Stop talking partisan bollox and thank your lucky stars where you are!
Whilst I agree in general, can the effect really have resulted from a change 3 days ago. The question that isn’t being addressed is whether other countries are being quite so rigid as the U.K. in trusting their experts.
I live here in Spain and yes we are now in lock down and a state of emergence 3 days after the government closed the schools and universities. Many Spanish from the big cities have second homes in the Costas and many have arrived in the past few days with young kids off school in tow. Many students kicked out of universities have returned home to their families. My real point which some of the thickpos on here really don't get is that there are no right answers any more - the best you can get is less wrong answers. Here in Spain we are a spit away from martial law. Believe me you don't want that any sooner than necessary.
I'm genuinely caught in two minds which was more terrifying - Threads, or When The Wind Blows?
Right now is not the time to rewatch and decide...
Threads is so bleak, even watching it as an adult I was freaked out.
Apparently Reagan was deeply troubled by the US equivalent 'The Day After' which is very tame compared to Threads.
The thing about Threads is it's a downer, but you know all along - because they rub this in so you're left in no doubt at any point - that it's a downer. You are never under any illusion that "oh, this is nice, at least everything's going to get better from this point". Whereas When The Wind Blows is all Raymond Briggs children's-picture-book animation with a lovely old couple in a quaint house who could be your favourite aunt and uncle, and moments of human warmth and nostalgia and humour and optimism, but you're also completely aware (even when they aren't) that they're dying a hideous death while having been lied to successively by their politicians, jingoistic newspapers and even British culture's patriotic, un-self-critical self-image and "we'll muddle through" mentality. Although it's "just a cartoon", The tone of When The Wind Blows sucks you into a more traumatising emotional journey and I thought the political satire and cultural critique in it was more cutting. Threads is grisly, but for me I mostly found it a series of grisly practicalities.
Anyone want to pass comment on the original Survivors ("It concerns the plight of a group of people who have survived an apocalyptic plague pandemic, which was accidentally released by a Chinese scientist and quickly spread across the world via air travel. Referred to as "The Death", the plague kills approximately 4,999 out of every 5,000 human beings on the planet within a matter of weeks of being released")?
For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
This herd theory has all the philosophy of some kind of eugenic, cull- infect the entire population, kill off the oldies and the sick and we'll come through it with the master race who are Covid resistant.....
For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
If a million people have it, tens of millions will have it the following week.
Not sure the herd immunity is planned to be achieved in one go. It is a multi year strategy. It is still true that the more that are immune before the first winter, the better.
For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
If a million people have it, tens of millions will have it the following week.
So how high is the peak these graphs are estimating for the uk? If were getting say 30m cases the peak week has to be over 1m doesnt it? If 1% need ICU are we just about coping?
Guardian article about banning of mass gathering say in the bill on Monday there is provision for government compensation for cancellations.
Also, it states a mass work from home is going to be deployed shortly.
Again, I wonder if legal issues have complicated this announcement?
"Mass gathering" will mean all weather race meetings will continue unaffected. At the midweek Kempton floodlight meetings they announce the crowd changes to the jockeys.
Yes, I’m quietly confident for my County Cricket membership too. Me and the other member can have a stand each. T20 and one day might have an issue but that happens later on.
Walking in the garden tonight, the smell of spring is definitely in the air. The trees and shrubs are flowering, you never know, Covid-19 might have turned up too late
That peak to get "herd immunity" requires a near 60% infection rate, below that and it is not herd immunity, it is sacrificial cows.
That 60% level means about 43 million British getting it, and even at 1% mortality that is nearly a half a million dead before their time.
There are other assumptions:
1) that herd immunity will be protective against a mutated Coronovirus.
2) that a second wave will happen, and there will not be a benign mutation so that the disease fades away
3) that no effective treatment or vaccine is available before the second wave hits.
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
There is also,
3 b) Best practice isn't established that radically reduces mortality rates. At the moment, nobody has any idea what to do, it is total guesswork. It may well be that as time goes on, even without a particular new treatment, that certain things are a definite no-no and others you need to deploy at a day x, rather than day y.
3 c) instant testing, so we can screen at airports and contract trace far better.
My wife is a teacher. She has really struggled with motivating herself to do all the pathetic garbage at school which even at the best of times is pathetic garbage. We are hoping the education establishment sees sense
Blimey. We are having multiple religious experiences right now. That’s asking for a miracle on a par with the raising of Lazarus.
If you've seen Ofsted's statement to Schoolsweek this afternoon, I wouldn't be optimistic. It's shameful stuff.
Policy papers are supposed to be clear and straightforward. Do you want to beat around the bush so there could be confusion?
The point is Charles it is not even a question that should arise for so many reasons. It is not the clarity that is at fault, it is the basic premise.
Given that schools are vectors for just about every virus that crops up, and there is no WFH for teachers, keeping them open, at a time the government is pursuing ‘herd immunity’ via infection, puts teachers directly in the firing line without choice.
If I were a teacher over the age of fifty, I’d be seriously pissed off, to put it mildly.
I’m sleeping about three or hours maximum. My physical and mental health are crumbling.
If they don’t announce changes, such as exemptions and the choice to work remotely, I think there will be a revolt.
I very much hope you found a way to balance your health needs and your teaching obligations.
For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
This herd theory has all the philosophy of some kind of eugenic, cull- infect the entire population, kill off the oldies and the sick and we'll come through it with the master race who are Covid resistant.....
But anti Brexit?
Do not mention Brexit...takes me back to those romantic, halcyon, innocent days when we were bickering about John Bercow's bias......now we are talking about how we flatten the curve and save tens of thousands of lives.....
So - my son just sent me a bunch of pictures from Sainsbury's
Every shelf stripped bare, even the freezer section.
The only things I could see were certain kids breakfast cereals
Where was that - and how big a branch was it?
Our big Tesco had certain sections that had been stripped by locusts this evening, but most of the shelves were still reasonably stocked. In the other supermarkets, everything still available in varying quantities except for dried pasta and bog rolls.
I went to my Sainsbury's this lunch time.....it was like a war zone...still I managed to source some Pringles, spinach, garlic and wine
Maybe it's something weird about Sainsbury's?!?!
Insanesbury's....
Worse in madsda.
Wait til we've all been co-oped up for weeks on end....
For herd immunity to work do we need 60% infection of under 60s by next winter? That would mean about 1m per week but somehow keeping vulnerable group infections close to zero. Sounds a tough sweet spot to hit.
If a million people have it, tens of millions will have it the following week.
Not sure the herd immunity is planned to be achieved in one go. It is a multi year strategy. It is still true that the more that are immune before the first winter, the better.
That would make more sense from the numbers, not heard a govt source suggest it yet though. Perhaps too depressing.
I wonder also if some politicians in the “rest of Europe” who are being told to crash their economies on scientific advice may be wishing they had our advisers?
They had to crash their economies because they left it too late to do what is now happening in Britain, much of it in spite of the PM - cancelling events, working from home etc. Hopefully the British still have time to avoid going into full production-stoppage lockdown mode but there's going to be a lot of growth in the next couple of weeks before we start to see results.
So Britain’s doing pretty well then? How lucky.
Yes, it's hitting Britain later - part luck (distance from both Wuhan and the North Italian cluster etc), and part that the early testing/containment was pretty good. It should have been in a much better position to handle it than China, then Korea, then Japan, then Italy.
But it seems like every developed country that hasn't had a previous recent fail (SARS or Crown Princess) then fails to use that time. It's particularly infuriating with the UK because we've got to watch how all these similar countries are failing, but then still insist on sticking to the old plans and failing the same way.
Guardian article about banning of mass gathering say in the bill on Monday there is provision for government compensation for cancellations.
Also, it states a mass work from home is going to be deployed shortly.
Again, I wonder if legal issues have complicated this announcement?
"Mass gathering" will mean all weather race meetings will continue unaffected. At the midweek Kempton floodlight meetings they announce the crowd changes to the jockeys.
It might give a boost to various smaller clubs / grounds / sports.
Their position in the league does make that decision an easy one no one can object to; but the Champion’s League spots are going to be tricky to sort out. The Man City ban may help I guess.
John Ashworth supporting the government's position despite Newsnight presenter (who?) prodding him not to.
Ashworth deserves plaudits for generally doing the right thing and not the easy thing on this for weeks. I presume he’s been given good briefing and is a sound bloke.
Comments
I hear the two most important experts in the field who are up front in the media providing the advice Boris is accepting
This is not a political response, I would expect Starmer to do the same
Indeed Cobra includes Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster from across the political divide
This is not my political ideology or indeed any ology
That deserves respect. Boris has been a class A malignant shit over Brexit, but on this so far, so good.
I can only hope that behind closed doors the government is scrutinising the advice it is getting.
I only hope we can go back to taking the piss out of them for going to Gregg's or getting stuck on a zip wire sooner rather than later.
The public heard his frank warning and are responding
I see no reason to believe HMG ratings will not even improve as long as they follow the advice which the public seem to accept
I guess they must be if ours are so brilliant in their advice.
Right now is not the time to rewatch and decide...
The problem is those with pre-existing health conditions and other vulnerable individuals may be put at greater risk by coming into contact with those carrying the virus whose movements remain unrestricted.
IF the healthy start suffering adversely in large numbers, that strategy will be seen to have been in error and of course Boris can blame the experts and if it works he can take the credit so it's a case of heads I win, tails I also win.
Those countries who have opted for lock-down may be able to reduce further infection in the short term but by not exposing the mass of the population to the virus risk a renewed outbreak next winter once restrictions are lifted - assuming of course the virus returns as it has this year.
I think it's now impossible to avoid severe economic dislocation in the short to medium term - longer term there will be a revival of activity but there will be business casualties and confidence may be the first (after Flybe).
Given the Italian lockdown we might not see much dried pasta for months.
Though you can still buy lots of fresh pasta with a use by data of mid April.
Apparently Reagan was deeply troubled by the US equivalent 'The Day After' which is very tame compared to Threads.
HMG is responsible to the UK and to follow the advice it is given
If they did not, you would be the first one to kick off
As hard as this will be for some people after what's happened over the last few years, they might wish to think twice about automatically assuming that British advice on this matter is better than that available in continental Europe, or vice-versa, just because one set of people providing it don't inhabit the EU and the others do.
If I ever get round to writing it, the autobiography of my childhood will be titled "Chipolatas for Jesus" And only you, dear reader, will know why.
It's possible that a better global outcome would be achieved if everyone decided on a single common approach. You might imagine some sort of global medical association that would play that role...
Don't worry, I'll get my coat.
Also, it states a mass work from home is going to be deployed shortly.
Again, I wonder if legal issues have complicated this announcement?
This is going to be bad. Not because of politicians, medics or scientists, but because its a once in a generation tough challenge we are not used to. We need to work as a team not try and sow discord.
This herd theory has all the philosophy of some kind of eugenic, cull- infect the entire population, kill off the oldies and the sick and we'll come through it with the master race who are Covid resistant.....
That 60% level means about 43 million British getting it, and even at 1% mortality that is nearly a half a million dead before their time.
There are other assumptions:
1) that herd immunity will be protective against a mutated Coronovirus.
2) that a second wave will happen, and there will not be a benign mutation so that the disease fades away
3) that no effective treatment or vaccine is available before the second wave hits.
If any of these 3 assumptions are wrong, there will be a much worse outcome for Britons than countries doing more aggressive measures.
Strange situation - I work from home anyway, so no problem there... but my work is betting on live sport! 😳
But we are where we are and I think we have to accept that it is out there and now it's about damage limitation.
Perhaps they expected most other European countries to have a similar plan and given the tragic events in Italy have gone the politically less painful route which is shut everything down immediately.
If they don’t announce changes, such as exemptions and the choice to work remotely, I think there will be a revolt.
Anyone want to pass comment on the original Survivors ("It concerns the plight of a group of people who have survived an apocalyptic plague pandemic, which was accidentally released by a Chinese scientist and quickly spread across the world via air travel. Referred to as "The Death", the plague kills approximately 4,999 out of every 5,000 human beings on the planet within a matter of weeks of being released")?
Although, soy milk is quite good in tea if you're stuck.
3 b) Best practice isn't established that radically reduces mortality rates. At the moment, nobody has any idea what to do, it is total guesswork. It may well be that as time goes on, even without a particular new treatment, that certain things are a definite no-no and others you need to deploy at a day x, rather than day y.
3 c) instant testing, so we can screen at airports and contract trace far better.
But it seems like every developed country that hasn't had a previous recent fail (SARS or Crown Princess) then fails to use that time. It's particularly infuriating with the UK because we've got to watch how all these similar countries are failing, but then still insist on sticking to the old plans and failing the same way.
https://twitter.com/frickleyafc/status/1238428771541278720
"They didn't win it properly...."
Won't it, TSE?