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> @WhisperingOracle said:
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > More and better rumours
> > > > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014.
> > >
> > > 20% up on UKIP in 2014?
> >
> > That would imply that TBP are polling well over 40% nationally, which I find hard to believe.
>
> It could be that the Tories have been utterly destroyed in seats like this, though, while holding on to some more affluent voters in the country and places like the south.
Cheshire is definitely affluent.1 -
If the hotel has WiFi you can go down to the bar, buy a soft drink, then go sit at a table or the lounge and surf in peace.Sunil_Prasannan said:Not sure how late I can stay up, I'm sharing a hotel room with my mum and my brother who are both early sleepers!
Now you know why I was whinging about the election count not being on Thursday!
0 -
This is exciting again!
Just for the lolz, renewed prediction:
BXP - 39
LDS - 33
Green - 13
Tories - 8
Labour - 7
CUK - minus 48, and Gavin “I’m GAVIN ESLAR!” Eslar to fingerstab himself to death0 -
Cannot go into specific details but it was pointed out to me that Labour have a lot of the following votersanother_richard said:
1) Really passionate Leavers
2) Really passionate Remainers/Revokers
Both have abandoned the party.0 -
It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.0
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> @viewcode said:
> Anyhoo, I was visiting rellies over the weekend and doing useful social things like helping my rellies garden, despite them having four working limbs and ability to afford a gardener. I took revenge by making them watch the season finale of season 2 of ST:Discovery twice, so balance was restored,...
>
> But as a result of this distraction I forgot that yesterday was International Towel Day. More info here.
Yep. I celebrated with a few like minded friends.
A triple nerd event.
International Towel Day
The 42nd anniversary of the Premier of Star Wars
The Glorious 25th May from Terry Pratchett's Night Watch. - "Truth, Justice, Freedom, Reasonably-Priced Love and a Hard-Boiled Egg!"
Next year's International Towel Day will be a special one as it falls on the 42nd anniversary of the first radio transmission of HHGTTG0 -
> @Pulpstar said:
> > @Sean_F said:
>
> > That would imply that TBP are polling well over 40% nationally, which I find hard to believe.
>
> If you were to go by twitter, the Brexit party should be around 10% or so !
The problem with Social media is that everyone lives and reads their own echo chamber...1 -
Neck and Neck? That's a 56.7% Remain area.bookseller said:Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise.
Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...0 -
A true genius would have their balance already riding, not sitting on the sidelines!Pulpstar said:> @ah009 said:
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Anyone who has £5000 sitting in an instant access account and is willing to trust BF with it doesn’t need £5
>
> Obviously I'm talking about all the geniuses on here who continually make money with their predictions, have over 5k sat in BF ready to withdraw. Might as well grab the free money. Should be paid out by this time tomorrow.
It's a fair shout but I don't have 5 grand in Betfair at the moment.0 -
> @WhisperingOracle said:
> It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.
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If the new Tory leader can't form a government, this could be a prelude to a summer General Election dominated by Brexit.0 -
Finland
84% counted
National Coalition 20% (3 seats)
Social Democrats 15.2% (2)
Centre 14.9 (2)
Greens 14.4 (2)
True Finns 14.1 (2)
Left 6.9 (1)
People's Party Swedish People 6.2 (1)
Christian Democrats 5.1 (0)0 -
> @bookseller said:
> Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise.
>
> Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...
Neck and neck in a Remain area where the Lib Dems just won the council in a landslide? I'm starting to worry about my BXP<40% bet! Still don't see how it's mathematically possible, but I guess if Labour and Tories are in single figures. This suggests the higher turnout in Remain areas wasn't Remainers.0 -
You can’t use east Cheshire as a proper bellwether because in most nw seats Labour were not in third place .0
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> @brokenwheel said:
> Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise.
>
>
>
> Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...
>
> Neck and Neck? That's a 56.7% remain area.
lol
0 -
> @Pulpstar said:
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > > More and better rumours
> > > > > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014.
> > > >
> > > > 20% up on UKIP in 2014?
> > >
> > > That would imply that TBP are polling well over 40% nationally, which I find hard to believe.
> >
> > It could be that the Tories have been utterly destroyed in seats like this, though, while holding on to some more affluent voters in the country and places like the south.
>
> Cheshire is definitely affluent.
I suppose it is ; but it's also more fluid and socially mobile. I'm thinking more of the most deep, dyed-in the wool Tory shires.0 -
> @RobD said:
> > @nico67 said:
> > Regarding Cheshire east at the last EU elections it was close between UKIP and the Tories roughly 30% each with Labour in third with 18% .
> >
> > If the BP has taken 50% that’s not a surprise .
>
> Which would be enough to grab all three seats in the region. Ah, PR.
-------------
Cheshire's in the NW....0 -
> @WhisperingOracle said:
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > More and better rumours
> > > > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014.
> > >
> > > 20% up on UKIP in 2014?
> >
> > That would imply that TBP are polling well over 40% nationally, which I find hard to believe.
>
> It could be that the Tories have been utterly destroyed in seats like this, though, while holding on to some more affluent voters in the country and places like the south.
Cheshire East is an affluent district.0 -
> @WhisperingOracle said:
> It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.
Bull. Brexit Party is being investigated on several different levels, most of which could mean that Farage could possibly see the inside of a prison cell for some considerable time. Probably get free milkshakes though.0 -
> @RobD said:
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise.
> >
> >
> >
> > Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...
> >
> > Neck and Neck? That's a 56.7% remain area.
>
> lol
Yes but the Remain vote is split . The BP can win even in Remain areas , it depends whether the split is more even between the pro EU parties .0 -
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May 25th is also Geek Pride Day, oddly enough. I don't know if it's a coincidence.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. I celebrated with a few like minded friends.viewcode said:Anyhoo, I was visiting rellies over the weekend and doing useful social things like helping my rellies garden, despite them having four working limbs and ability to afford a gardener. I took revenge by making them watch the season finale of season 2 of ST:Discovery twice, so balance was restored,...
But as a result of this distraction I forgot that yesterday was International Towel Day. More info here.
A triple nerd event.
International Towel Day
The 42nd anniversary of the Premier of Star Wars
The Glorious 25th May from Terry Pratchett's Night Watch. - "Truth, Justice, Freedom, Reasonably-Priced Love and a Hard-Boiled Egg!"
Next year's International Towel Day will be a special one as it falls on the 42nd anniversary of the first radio transmission of HHGTTG0 -
> @another_richard said:
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > > More and better rumours
> > > > > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014.
> > > >
> > > > 20% up on UKIP in 2014?
> > >
> > > That would imply that TBP are polling well over 40% nationally, which I find hard to believe.
> >
> > It could be that the Tories have been utterly destroyed in seats like this, though, while holding on to some more affluent voters in the country and places like the south.
>
> Cheshire East is an affluent district.
Yes ; but as mentioned below, not really the kind of affluent Tory rural heartland I was really meaning to mention.0 -
The People's Vote organisation sounds like it cares more about the Labour party than about Remain.0
-
> @brokenwheel said:
> Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise.
>
>
>
> Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...
>
> Neck and Neck? That's a 56.7% Remain area.
Yep - and finely balanced between Tory and LD. Which leads me to believe Tory vote majorly hemorrhaging to BXP...
(Sorry, is there an official acronym? BXP or TBP?)0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > I've heard similar
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617
>
>
>
>
>
> Any details ?
>
> Cannot go into specific details but it was pointed out to me that Labour have a lot of the following voters
>
> 1) Really passionate Leavers
>
> 2) Really passionate Remainers/Revokers
>
> Both have abandoned the party.
Thanks.0 -
Heart of gold.Theuniondivvie said:> @ah009 said:
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> >
>
>
> The political media equivalent of volunteering to climb into the Wicker Man.
I sense Barry Gardiner will have a busy night.0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> The People's Vote organisation sounds like it cares more about the Labour party than about Remain.
Reminds me of the #SNPout twitter hashtag which was used almost exclusively by Scottish Tories.0 -
The Lib Dems are appaling at expectation management (see Gordon 2007, Westminster 2010, Westminster 2015)
I am not reacting to any news of positive Lib Dem joy.0 -
Don't know what the % increase is but I'm guessing there is one.
https://twitter.com/JohnClarkSNP/status/11327181437077135360 -
> @viewcode said:
> Not sure how late I can stay up, I'm sharing a hotel room with my mum and my brother who are both early sleepers!
>
>
>
> Now you know why I was whinging about the election count not being on Thursday!
>
> If the hotel has WiFi you can go down to the bar, buy a soft drink, then go sit at a table or the lounge and surf in peace.
That's sound advice, but it will mean creeping back up into the room in the wee hours without waking them up 0 -
Am I right in thinking that the country which voted first is going to be the last to report results ?0
-
> @viewcode said:
> > @viewcode said:
>
> > Anyhoo, I was visiting rellies over the weekend and doing useful social things like helping my rellies garden, despite them having four working limbs and ability to afford a gardener. I took revenge by making them watch the season finale of season 2 of ST:Discovery twice, so balance was restored,...
>
> >
>
> > But as a result of this distraction I forgot that yesterday was International Towel Day. More info here.
>
>
>
> Yep. I celebrated with a few like minded friends.
>
>
>
> A triple nerd event.
>
>
>
> International Towel Day
>
> The 42nd anniversary of the Premier of Star Wars
>
> The Glorious 25th May from Terry Pratchett's Night Watch. - "Truth, Justice, Freedom, Reasonably-Priced Love and a Hard-Boiled Egg!"
>
>
>
> Next year's International Towel Day will be a special one as it falls on the 42nd anniversary of the first radio transmission of HHGTTG
>
> May 25th is also Geek Pride Day, oddly enough. I don't know if it's a coincidence.
Funnily enough I read the history of this earlier today. Apparently it was the confluence of Towel Day and the anniversary of the Star Wars Premier that led to the date being considered Geek Pride Day. Apparently Pratchett then chose the day for his fictional rebellion on purpose to coincide with it. But then Star Wars fanned adopted the (rather obvious) May the 4th as Star Wars Day and Geek Pride took a bit of a battering. There are attempts to resurrect it, particularly with the big 42 anniversary next year.0 -
Labour as fucked as a stepmon on Pornhub.0
-
Until, and only then, that Westminster starts taking seriously, understanding and working with the EU will the UK be able to leave it, or more probably seriously want to stay in. Reading the comments so far doesn't give me much hope though.0
-
> @John_McLean said:
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.
>
> Bull. Brexit Party is being investigated on several different levels, most of which could mean that Farage could possibly see the inside of a prison cell for some considerable time. Probably get free milkshakes though.
The Brexit party is an online-organised sham, or scam ; that doesn't make the results insignificant, though.0 -
> @nico67 said:
> > @RobD said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...
> > >
> > > Neck and Neck? That's a 56.7% remain area.
> >
> > lol
>
> Yes but the Remain vote is split . The BP can win even in Remain areas , it depends whether the split is more even between the pro EU parties .
Quite. My FB timeline was 'I've voted Green'...0 -
> @WhisperingOracle said:
> > @John_McLean said:
> > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.
> >
> > Bull. Brexit Party is being investigated on several different levels, most of which could mean that Farage could possibly see the inside of a prison cell for some considerable time. Probably get free milkshakes though.
>
> The Brexit party is an online-organised sham, or scam ; that doesn't make the results insignificant, though.
In what way is it a scam?0 -
> @Black_Rook said:
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132715814774292482
---------------------
Using election results to determine policy is a 'democratic outrage'? Peoples' Vote are at least consistent in their definition of 'democracy'.0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Labour as fucked as a stepmon on Pornhub.
We've left dockside hooker territory? 0 -
Le Pen in the lead also in Guyane, Guadaloupe, St Pierre, St Martin and St Bertholemy0
-
+3%Theuniondivvie said:Don't know what the % increase is but I'm guessing there is one.
0 -
You forget the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election when Labour were I think 1.02 as the candidates walked onto the stage.Alistair said:The Lib Dems are appaling at expectation management (see Gordon 2007, Westminster 2010, Westminster 2015)
I am not reacting to any news of positive Lib Dem joy.0 -
The whole of Britain will declare tonight except for the Western Isles where the Sabbath is still observed — (and they obviously don't believe in starting a job at one minute past midnight).0
-
Do we know if the lectern is ready at LAB HQ so it can be wheeled out tomorrow morning?1
-
Ooops that was for a private message and not public consumption.RobD said:> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Labour as fucked as a stepmon on Pornhub.
We've left dockside hooker territory?0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Labour as fucked as a stepmon on Pornhub.
Is that more or less than stepsisters or stepdaughters ?
I don't doubt that the data is available somewhere.0 -
Great to hear.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I'm going to vote for Gove if he makes the final two.
I think I'll get disowned and removed from a few WhatsApp groups though.
If there is any justice in the world Michael will beat Johnson.
It's a mismatch IMO - one of them is top drawer, the other one is top shelf.0 -
The Lib Dems were insisting they had beaten Alex Salmond in Gordon in 2007 as the returning officer came on stage.TheScreamingEagles said:
You forget the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election when Labour were I think 1.02 as the candidates walked onto the stage.Alistair said:The Lib Dems are appaling at expectation management (see Gordon 2007, Westminster 2010, Westminster 2015)
I am not reacting to any news of positive Lib Dem joy.0 -
> @RobD said:
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > @John_McLean said:
> > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.
> > >
> > > Bull. Brexit Party is being investigated on several different levels, most of which could mean that Farage could possibly see the inside of a prison cell for some considerable time. Probably get free milkshakes though.
> >
> > The Brexit party is an online-organised sham, or scam ; that doesn't make the results insignificant, though.
>
> In what way is it a scam?
It seems to pose as a bottom-up organisation, but actually seems to be a top-down directed party, both in terms of its policy direction, and a large chunk of its funding. It looks like a strange cross between something like Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 campaign with the Cambridge Analytica/Banks approach.0 -
> @stodge said:
> The Danish exit poll confirming the collapse of the Dansk Folkeparti and a strong result for the centre-left and left parties.
Yes, anti-EU and anti-immigration parties routed there. In general the far right is having a patchy night - quite a good score in Belgium, very poor in Spain, in the lead in France but only with 20-odd, which they've had before. In Germany the AfD are just up 3% to 11% total - the attention is going to the Greens, who have romped past the Social Democrats for a strong 2nd place.
https://www.zdf.de/0 -
> @brokenwheel said:
> Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise.
>
>
>
> Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...
>
> Neck and Neck? That's a 56.7% Remain area.
With a lot of Tories0 -
Far right tanking in Denmark and the so called surge in Spain by Vox has delivered 6% !
The media will of course ignore all this .0 -
> @SandyRentool said:
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
>
> Shitting feck. If Labour can't win a seat in the NE we are in for a total humiliation.
It would be very satisfying to see both the Tories and Labour comprehensively caned in this election.
In the longer run, neither party is fit to govern. Barring a total collapse I suppose that one or the other will still provide the PM for the foreseeable future, but it would be better for everyone if neither ever won an outright majority again.
Untrammeled power should not be placed in the hands of these narrow and wholly unrepresentative cults.1 -
> @AndyJS said:
> The whole of Britain will declare tonight except for the Western Isles where the Sabbath is still observed — (and they obviously don't believe in starting a job at one minute past midnight).
Surely there is enough heathens on the island to join in with the rest of the UK?0 -
> @MikeSmithson said:
> Do we know if the lectern is ready at LAB HQ so it can be wheeled out tomorrow morning?
Brilliant Mike , that’s so funny .0 -
> @WhisperingOracle said:
> > @RobD said:
> > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > @John_McLean said:
> > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.
> > > >
> > > > Bull. Brexit Party is being investigated on several different levels, most of which could mean that Farage could possibly see the inside of a prison cell for some considerable time. Probably get free milkshakes though.
> > >
> > > The Brexit party is an online-organised sham, or scam ; that doesn't make the results insignificant, though.
> >
> > In what way is it a scam?
>
> It seems to pose as a bottom-up organisation, but actually seems to be a top-down directed party, both in terms of its policy direction, and a large chunk of its funding. It looks like a strange cross between something like Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 campaign with the Cambridge Analytica/Banks approach.
How does it pose as a bottom-up organisation? I think they are explicit that you aren't becoming a member.0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> The whole of Britain will declare tonight except for the Western Isles where the Sabbath is still observed — (and they obviously don't believe in starting a job at one minute past midnight).
In the days of the fishing fleets in North East Scotland they remained in harbour until one minute past midnight on the Sabbath when they cast off to sail to their fishing areas returning on fridays0 -
> @RobD said:
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > @John_McLean said:
> > > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > > It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.
> > > > >
> > > > > Bull. Brexit Party is being investigated on several different levels, most of which could mean that Farage could possibly see the inside of a prison cell for some considerable time. Probably get free milkshakes though.
> > > >
> > > > The Brexit party is an online-organised sham, or scam ; that doesn't make the results insignificant, though.
> > >
> > > In what way is it a scam?
> >
> > It seems to pose as a bottom-up organisation, but actually seems to be a top-down directed party, both in terms of its policy direction, and a large chunk of its funding. It looks like a strange cross between something like Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 campaign with the Cambridge Analytica/Banks approach.
>
> How does it pose as a bottom-up organisation? I think they are explicit that you aren't becoming a member.
It's based around the concept of online democracy and votes for members, but the key policy direction, storing and direction of members' data and online activities, and possibly the decisive funding, seems to all come from the top.0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> The whole of Britain will declare tonight except for the Western Isles where the Sabbath is still observed — (and they obviously don't believe in starting a job at one minute past midnight).
You mean they make the DUP look godless and secular?0 -
> @RobD said:
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > @John_McLean said:
> > > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > > It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.
> > > > >
> > > > > Bull. Brexit Party is being investigated on several different levels, most of which could mean that Farage could possibly see the inside of a prison cell for some considerable time. Probably get free milkshakes though.
> > > >
> > > > The Brexit party is an online-organised sham, or scam ; that doesn't make the results insignificant, though.
> > >
> > > In what way is it a scam?
> >
> > It seems to pose as a bottom-up organisation, but actually seems to be a top-down directed party, both in terms of its policy direction, and a large chunk of its funding. It looks like a strange cross between something like Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 campaign with the Cambridge Analytica/Banks approach.
>
> How does it pose as a bottom-up organisation? I think they are explicit that you aren't becoming a member.
Indeed. They are very clear that you are not becoming a member if you support them and are rather contributing to their success in achieving a shared objective.0 -
Any minute: Sweden’s exit poll0
-
> @SandyRentool said:
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
>
> Shitting feck. If Labour can't win a seat in the NE we are in for a total humiliation.
Surely Labour will get at least one seat in the North East.-1 -
> @MikeSmithson said:
> Do we know if the lectern is ready at LAB HQ so it can be wheeled out tomorrow morning?
Do we know if the lectern at LibDem hq is ready to be rolled out tomorrow tomorrow morning so that Cable can declare that his party is ready for government and he has measured up the curtains in no 10?0 -
> @WhisperingOracle said:
> > @RobD said:
> > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > > @John_McLean said:
> > > > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > > > It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Bull. Brexit Party is being investigated on several different levels, most of which could mean that Farage could possibly see the inside of a prison cell for some considerable time. Probably get free milkshakes though.
> > > > >
> > > > > The Brexit party is an online-organised sham, or scam ; that doesn't make the results insignificant, though.
> > > >
> > > > In what way is it a scam?
> > >
> > > It seems to pose as a bottom-up organisation, but actually seems to be a top-down directed party, both in terms of its policy direction, and a large chunk of its funding. It looks like a strange cross between something like Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 campaign with the Cambridge Analytica/Banks approach.
> >
> > How does it pose as a bottom-up organisation? I think they are explicit that you aren't becoming a member.
>
> It's based around the concept of online democracy and votes for members, but the policy direction, and possibly the decisive funding, seems to all come from the top.
Where do they say members get votes? The website is explicit that you are not becoming a member.0 -
-
> @Alistair said:
> The Lib Dems are appaling at expectation management (see Gordon 2007, Westminster 2010, Westminster 2015)
>
> I am not reacting to any news of positive Lib Dem joy.
I'm not a LibDem, but to be fair I think they're going to be the big story tonight.0 -
I did not know that, thank youRichard_Tyndall said:Funnily enough I read the history of this earlier today. Apparently it was the confluence of Towel Day and the anniversary of the Star Wars Premier that led to the date being considered Geek Pride Day. Apparently Pratchett then chose the day for his fictional rebellion on purpose to coincide with it. But then Star Wars fanned adopted the (rather obvious) May the 4th as Star Wars Day and Geek Pride took a bit of a battering. There are attempts to resurrect it, particularly with the big 42 anniversary next year.
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> @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
>Mary Creagh
>
>If we’d said referendum, remain & reform, Labour would’ve beaten Farage.
Labour's three R's Brexit policy: Random, Wrong and Wrecked.0 -
> @bookseller said:
> https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132708207485489153
Note: if the sequence of the dots on this map suggests the finishing order of the parties, as I suspect it does, then it implies that the Tories have beaten the Lib Dems in the South East, despite the Brexit Party finishing in the lead by some margin.
I stand to be corrected by events, but that prediction at least really does smell a bit.0 -
-
> @MikeSmithson said:
> Do we know if the lectern is ready at LAB HQ so it can be wheeled out tomorrow morning?
Jezza will be on his allotment on bank holiday Monday. 0 -
Sweden exit poll:
SD up 7
M up 4
Greens down 6
Liberals down 6
Feminist Initiative collapse (no meps1 -
> @NickPalmer said:
> > @Alistair said:
> > The Lib Dems are appaling at expectation management (see Gordon 2007, Westminster 2010, Westminster 2015)
> >
> > I am not reacting to any news of positive Lib Dem joy.
>
> I'm not a LibDem, but to be fair I think they're going to be the big story tonight.
Actually Nick I think the big story tonight, and over the coming days, will be labour's collapse and how they move to a referendum0 -
> @MikeSmithson said:
> Do we know if the lectern is ready at LAB HQ so it can be wheeled out tomorrow morning?
THAT bad?0 -
> @NickPalmer said:
> > @stodge said:
> > The Danish exit poll confirming the collapse of the Dansk Folkeparti and a strong result for the centre-left and left parties.
>
> Yes, anti-EU and anti-immigration parties routed there. In general the far right is having a patchy night - quite a good score in Belgium, very poor in Spain, in the lead in France but only with 20-odd, which they've had before. In Germany the AfD are just up 3% to 11% total - the attention is going to the Greens, who have romped past the Social Democrats for a strong 2nd place.
>
> https://www.zdf.de/
Unless "and" means "which are both" as opposed to "both of", it's a little simplistic to say anti-immigration parties were routed in Denmark, as the Danish left are increasingly anti-immigration.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/11/denmark-election-matte-frederiksen-leftwing-immigration0 -
Not really, a few polls had them in the 20s, and at the start of the campaign they were 3/1 to winbookseller said:
Just checking the doing down Leave vote expectation management levels for later
BXP+UKIP
52%+ turnout down on referendum
50% down on referendum
49% Remain majority
BXP win with
38% didn’t match arbitrary personal expectation
36% didn’t match best poll
32% didn’t match average poll (disaster territory)
30% might as well call 2nd referendum next week
29% or less Revoke A50 immediately1 -
Social Democrats 25%
Moderates 18%
Sweden Democrats 17%
Centre 10%
Greens 10%
Christian Democrats 8%
Left 6%
Liberals 4%0 -
You've used that one quite a few times lately- I take it you too saw the movie The Long Shot?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour as fucked as a stepmon on Pornhub.
0 -
I don't believe the Brexit Party are on 50% in Cheshire East which almost voted Remain in 2016.0
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> @solarflare said:
> https://twitter.com/jamesmatthewsky/status/1132722303899492353
That’s the highest turnout so far . And voted 74% Remain in 2016 .0 -
Can't wait to see Corbyn spinning this result tomorrow.0
-
> @StuartDickson said:
> Sweden exit poll:
> SD up 7
> M up 4
> Greens down 6
> Liberals down 6
> Feminist Initiative collapse (no meps
That's unhelpful given Sweden has both the Swedish and the Social Democrats.0 -
I suspect they'd take a different tune if ld came top.TudorRose said:> @Black_Rook said:
>
---------------------
Using election results to determine policy is a 'democratic outrage'? Peoples' Vote are at least consistent in their definition of 'democracy'.0 -
> @StuartDickson said:
> Sweden exit poll:
> SD up 7
> M up 4
> Greens down 6
> Liberals down 6
> Feminist Initiative collapse (no meps
Is that seats or per cent? I presume SD is the Sweden democrats?
How come the Feminists have lost support?0 -
> @bookseller said:
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise.
> >
> >
> >
> > Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...
> >
> > Neck and Neck? That's a 56.7% Remain area.
>
> Yep - and finely balanced between Tory and LD. Which leads me to believe Tory vote majorly hemorrhaging to BXP...
>
> (Sorry, is there an official acronym? BXP or TBP?)
Finely balanced? The Council is 31 Lib Dems, 6 Tories, and a Green.0 -
Yup.kle4 said:
You've used that one quite a few times lately- I take it you too saw the movie The Long Shot?TheScreamingEagles said:Labour as fucked as a stepmon on Pornhub.
0 -
> @RobD said:
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > > > @John_McLean said:
> > > > > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > > > > It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Bull. Brexit Party is being investigated on several different levels, most of which could mean that Farage could possibly see the inside of a prison cell for some considerable time. Probably get free milkshakes though.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The Brexit party is an online-organised sham, or scam ; that doesn't make the results insignificant, though.
> > > > >
> > > > > In what way is it a scam?
> > > >
> > > > It seems to pose as a bottom-up organisation, but actually seems to be a top-down directed party, both in terms of its policy direction, and a large chunk of its funding. It looks like a strange cross between something like Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 campaign with the Cambridge Analytica/Banks approach.
> > >
> > > How does it pose as a bottom-up organisation? I think they are explicit that you aren't becoming a member.
> >
> > It's based around the concept of online democracy and votes for members, but the policy direction, and possibly the decisive funding, seems to all come from the top.
>
> Where do they say members get votes? The website is explicit that you are not becoming a member.
If you look, part of their entire raison d'etre and promise to their supporters is online participation, democracy and equality. They are a shell party, or "company" as Farage proudly puts it, for something else entirely.0 -
> @StuartDickson said:
> Social Democrats 25%
> Moderates 18%
> Sweden Democrats 17%
> Centre 10%
> Greens 10%
> Christian Democrats 8%
> Left 6%
> Liberals 4%
Pretty similar to the last national elections then0 -
@TheScreamingEagles said:
"Labour as fucked as a stepmon on Pornhub."
.........................................................................................................
Your exotic movie exploits are hardly suitable for airing before the watershed !!0 -
> @WhisperingOracle said:
> > @RobD said:
> > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > > > > @John_McLean said:
> > > > > > > > > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > > > > > > > > It's a significant election at a significant time, I would say, because of the confluence of the rise of the Brexit party, a rightwinger-dominated Tory leadership campaign, and the possibility of a Remainer vote upset to counteract the first two.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Bull. Brexit Party is being investigated on several different levels, most of which could mean that Farage could possibly see the inside of a prison cell for some considerable time. Probably get free milkshakes though.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > The Brexit party is an online-organised sham, or scam ; that doesn't make the results insignificant, though.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > In what way is it a scam?
> > > > >
> > > > > It seems to pose as a bottom-up organisation, but actually seems to be a top-down directed party, both in terms of its policy direction, and a large chunk of its funding. It looks like a strange cross between something like Jeremy Corbyn's 2017 campaign with the Cambridge Analytica/Banks approach.
> > > >
> > > > How does it pose as a bottom-up organisation? I think they are explicit that you aren't becoming a member.
> > >
> > > It's based around the concept of online democracy and votes for members, but the policy direction, and possibly the decisive funding, seems to all come from the top.
> >
> > Where do they say members get votes? The website is explicit that you are not becoming a member.
>
> If you look, part of their entire raison d'etre and promise to their members is online participation, democracy and equality. They are a shell party, or "company" as Farage proudly puts it, for something else entirely.
They have no members. I still fail to see where the scam is. If the website said "sign up here and you will have a say in policy", then you might have a point.0 -
37% last timeTheuniondivvie said:Don't know what the % increase is but I'm guessing there is one.
0 -
> @oldpolitics said:
> > @bookseller said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...
> > >
> > > Neck and Neck? That's a 56.7% Remain area.
> >
> > Yep - and finely balanced between Tory and LD. Which leads me to believe Tory vote majorly hemorrhaging to BXP...
> >
> > (Sorry, is there an official acronym? BXP or TBP?)
>
> Finely balanced? The Council is 31 Lib Dems, 6 Tories, and a Green.
I was referring to the OxWAB constituency: 43.7% LD, 42.4% CON0 -
Yes, I corrected that ; their promise is to their voters, not their members. And it's a promise of false participation.0
-
> @AndyJS said:
> Can't wait to see Corbyn spinning this result tomorrow.
He won't. He will leave others to do the hard work. It will be an important day on the allotment for him0 -
God bless the Hebridean Sabbath!another_richard said:Am I right in thinking that the country which voted first is going to be the last to report results ?
0
This discussion has been closed.