> @Pulpstar said: > > @williamglenn said: > > A Labour collapse makes a Tory recovery harder. You can't "beat Corbyn" if Corbyn isn't your most important opponent. > > Two sclerotic pillars propping each other up.
Perhaps it's best just to let the dice fly high and see where we end up. Our formal political division no longer seems to represent actual political divisions, and maybe we're just going through another 1918-35 period.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @AndyJS said: > > I wouldn't be shocked if Dan Hannan is the only Tory MEP elected tonight. > > You could easily imagine him defecting in the morning too.
You'd almost feel sorry for Nige were that to happen.
> @Alistair said: > If the snp only get 2 meps they will be disappointed. I can’t see Ruth Davidson being impressed either. She is ready to use this election as an excuse to take much stronger control of the Scottish conservatives following her maternity leave. Another reason why hard brexit has died tonight. > > It would be a huge blow for them and ironically would be used by the headbangers in the party to demand leadership change when it is the headbangers that have caused the SNP to leak votes.
I stand to be corrected by events, as ever, but I don't buy the SNP finishing on 2 out of 6 again. Not with the state to which Labour has been reduced compared to last time.
It'll be more interesting to see how much of the Tory vote actually sticks with them, or whether the Brexit Party has a reasonably good night. 38% of Scots voted Leave, so the votes are there to be mined, and Ukip did win one of the seats there last time.
My first glance at the results outside the UK suggests there has been surprisingly little movement from 2014. In fact the big increases we're seeing look to be the Greens taking share from the Centre Left, while EFDD / ECR / ENF seem to be broadly unchanged on last time around.
The big exception to this is likely to be Italy, where Salvini looks likely to make very large gains, while the M5S is stagnant, or even drops back slightly. (And the Centre Left gets hammered)
> @StuartDickson said: > > @williamglenn said: > > A Labour collapse makes a Tory recovery harder. You can't "beat Corbyn" if Corbyn isn't your most important opponent. > > Spot on. They desperately need each other.
Anyone still think Labour are looking forward to the Peterborough by-election?
> If the snp only get 2 meps they will be disappointed. I can’t see Ruth Davidson being impressed either. She is ready to use this election as an excuse to take much stronger control of the Scottish conservatives following her maternity leave. Another reason why hard brexit has died tonight.
>
> It would be a huge blow for them and ironically would be used by the headbangers in the party to demand leadership change when it is the headbangers that have caused the SNP to leak votes.
I stand to be corrected by events, as ever, but I don't buy the SNP finishing on 2 out of 6 again. Not with the state to which Labour has been reduced compared to last time.
It'll be more interesting to see how much of the Tory vote actually sticks with them, or whether the Brexit Party has a reasonably good night. 38% of Scots voted Leave, so the votes are there to be mined, and Ukip did win one of the seats there last time.
Oh, I think SNP 3 seats is nailed on. I also think Brexit party will do better than UKIP did in Scotland last time out.
Cons are going to be thrashed in Scotland, they'll lose their Brexi voters to, errr, the Brexit party and their Remain voters to the Lib Dems
Lid Dems switched to SCon in huge numbers in 2017, this could be a fatal permanent switch back.
We could be witnessing the end of the Ruth Davidson project.
The economy is good, he’s very bright, his opponents’ supporters are on a voluntary conveyor belt to other countries and his opponents are hopeless. More or less complete control of the media and state apparatus helps a lot too.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @williamglenn said: > > A Labour collapse makes a Tory recovery harder. You can't "beat Corbyn" if Corbyn isn't your most important opponent. > > Two sclerotic pillars propping each other up.
Much truth to this, especially in the case of the Conservatives. I imagine that an awful lot of the Tory vote at the next GE will consist of people backing them in an effort to keep Corbyn and friends out of power, and for no other reason.
This is a classic example of the genius of Farage. He can call the EU a "protectionist racket" to get people like me on board. Then he can tweet "what's wrong with protectionism" or "vote Leave to subsidise our steel industry" to get the Labour Leavers on board.
> @Jonathan said: > Labour are in for a very bad one. > > Tory posters seemingly excited by that like old times, whilst entirely missing the point.
It serves Labour right for sabotaging Brexit in the hope of destroying the Tories. They've destroyed themselves too.
As James K has so astutely explained over on Twitter it was overwhelmingly in the survival interests of both the Tories and Labour to get Brexit done and through so normal two party politics could be restored.
Together they have almost 90% of the MPs in the House of Commons, and no excuses.
> @TudorRose said: > Just read a great quote on opinion polls from Efthimia Efthimiou; 'they're like sausages - you don't want to know what they're made of'
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > > Alastair probably ruing the Hungarian poll (not an exit poll I don't think): > > > > > > > > Fidesz-KDNP-EPP: 56% > > > > MSZP-P-S&D-G/EFA: 10% > > > > DK-S&D: 10% > > > > Jobbik-NI: 9% > > > > Momentum-ALDE: 7% > > > > LMP-G/EFA: 3% > > > > Mi Hazánk-NI: 3% > > > > MKKP-NI: 2% > > > > > > Sadly expected. > > > > Why is Orban so incredibly popular? > > The economy is good, he’s very bright, his opponents’ supporters are on a voluntary conveyor belt to other countries and his opponents are hopeless. More or less complete control of the media and state apparatus helps a lot too.
Would Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore be an accurate comparison?
> @timmo said: > What this result may do is actually create a brexit deal to be more likely. Both main parties need it to happen and fast.
Except that they can't agree to back the existing Deal, nothing else is on offer from the EU, and in any event many, if not most, of the MPs on both sides have both dug in for absolute victory (either Remain or Clean Brexit.)
Apart from that, yes, agreement between the Hard Left high command of Labour and the non-existent/soon-to-be Populist Right leadership of the Conservatives has become significantly more likely.
> @ydoethur said: > Just read a great quote on opinion polls from Efthimia Efthimiou; 'they're like sausages - you don't want to know what they're made of' > > They have been offally far out recently.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @AndyJS said: > > I wouldn't be shocked if Dan Hannan is the only Tory MEP elected tonight. > > Good. He is the best of the lot of them anyway.
What do you think about his record of dishonesty and confabulation?
Something must be in the air tonight. After about 25 years of playing Scrabble I just got my first 7 letter word, using all my letters up. The word was the very politically incorrect "cretins".
So, the Eurosceptic Right (ECR + ENF + EFDD) is up 17, the Eurosceptic Left (GUE/NGL) is down 10. However, within that, the more Eurosceptic Right has won from the slightly less Europesceptic Right.
Traditional parties (EPP and S&D) have lost out everywhere to both the Eurosceptic Right, and the Euroenthusastic Center (ALDE +32) and the Greens (+17).
> @Sean_F said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > > > Alastair probably ruing the Hungarian poll (not an exit poll I don't think): > > > > > > > > > > Fidesz-KDNP-EPP: 56% > > > > > MSZP-P-S&D-G/EFA: 10% > > > > > DK-S&D: 10% > > > > > Jobbik-NI: 9% > > > > > Momentum-ALDE: 7% > > > > > LMP-G/EFA: 3% > > > > > Mi Hazánk-NI: 3% > > > > > MKKP-NI: 2% > > > > > > > > Sadly expected. > > > > > > Why is Orban so incredibly popular? > > > > The economy is good, he’s very bright, his opponents’ supporters are on a voluntary conveyor belt to other countries and his opponents are hopeless. More or less complete control of the media and state apparatus helps a lot too. > > Would Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore be an accurate comparison?
Lee Kuan Yew was less corrupt and more interested in his country’s economic success. They are cut from a similar cloth though.
> @TudorRose said: > Just read a great quote on opinion polls from Efthimia Efthimiou; 'they're like sausages - you don't want to know what they're made of'
> @williamglenn said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > I wouldn't be shocked if Dan Hannan is the only Tory MEP elected tonight. > > > > Good. He is the best of the lot of them anyway. > > What do you think about his record of dishonesty and confabulation?
It is all I your imagination or lack of understanding.
> > I wouldn't be shocked if Dan Hannan is the only Tory MEP elected tonight.
>
> Good. He is the best of the lot of them anyway.
What do you think about his record of dishonesty and confabulation?
Which sets him apart from May, Corbyn, Cameron, Brown, Miliband, Blair, Moggster, Boris, Gove, Macdonnell, Long Bailey, Pidcock, Abbott and every Liberal Democrat candidate who signed that tuition fee pledge?
I'm afraid the ineluctable conclusion is all our politicians are utter shits.
Has anyone worked out at what a Parliament elected under d’Hondt rules and the EU elections regions would look like? It seems quite a good way of giving smaller parties representation whilst acknowledging landslides when they occur.
> @ydoethur said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > I wouldn't be shocked if Dan Hannan is the only Tory MEP elected tonight. > > > > Good. He is the best of the lot of them anyway. > > Oddly, I would agree with you. > > In the same way I would say Khrushchev was the best leader of the Russian Empire (briefly known as the Soviet Union).
As with Gove, who will hopefully be the next leader of the Tory party, you are a very poor judge of character.
> @Alistair said: > Oh, I think SNP 3 seats is nailed on. I also think Brexit party will do better than UKIP did in Scotland last time out. > > Cons are going to be thrashed in Scotland, they'll lose their Brexi voters to, errr, the Brexit party and their Remain voters to the Lib Dems > > Lid Dems switched to SCon in huge numbers in 2017, this could be a fatal permanent switch back. > > We could be witnessing the end of the Ruth Davidson project.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > A Labour collapse makes a Tory recovery harder. You can't "beat Corbyn" if Corbyn isn't your most important opponent. > > > > Spot on. They desperately need each other. > > Anyone still think Labour are looking forward to the Peterborough by-election?
"We can't just abandon the whole thing." Nobody's really suggesting that. We should kill it. Drive a stake through its thorax and stuff garlic in its lipless mouth. Burn it to ashes and fire it into the sun.
If labour has cratered as per Twitter rumour, the LDs might get 20 percent and green and change might pick up another couple percent each, might be the difference between no reps and 2 or 3
The following regions will declare at the below times, according to the Press Association:
East Midlands – 11.30pm Sunday (11.20pm in 2014).
Eastern – 11.30pm Sunday (10.30pm in 2014).
London – 2am Monday (3.06am in 2014).
North-east – 10.30pm Sunday (10.15pm in 2014).
North-west – 12.30am Monday (12.24am in 2014).
Scotland – 11am Monday (12.35pm in 2014). N.B. Seats allocation for Scotland will be known from overnight local counts but the Western Isles count taking place later in the day will delay the final declaration.
Wales – 12.01am Monday (11.38pm Sunday in 2014).
South-east – 1am Monday (12.46am in 2014).
South-west – 11pm Sunday (11.38pm in 2014).
West Midlands – 12.01am Monday (12.30am in 2014).
Yorkshire & the Humber – 11pm Sunday (11.28pm in 2014).
> @brokenwheel said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise. > > Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm... > > Neck and Neck? That's a 56.7% Remain area. > You seem to be forgetting that BXP is the main recepticle for leave votes whereas the remain votes will split between several parties. If 43.3% of the area voted leave and those voters coalesce behind 1 party then that party will be doing well. The fact they are neck and neck with othe leading remain parties is hardly that surprising. > But I thought you were waxing lyrical about TBP not speaking for most Leavers either?
When was I doing that?
Apologies, I may be mixing you up with someone else, but the point stands. We're constantly told the Leave-->TBP vote is split because of No Deal.
A reminder that the BBC is following UK law on reporting any exit polls or projections that might exist out there.
Under UK law, there are restrictions about what broadcasters can say while polls are open.
The European Parliament's own website is providing up-to-date exit polls from EU member states as well as projecting what they mean for the make-up of the Parliament."
So to comply with their interpretation of EU law the UK has banned exit polls or projections whilst the European Parliament itself is happily posting both.
What this result may do is actually create a brexit deal to be more likely. Both main parties need it to happen and fast.
Untrue. We've seen the response of labour figures that they should be more pro remain, and the Tories are so scared of Brexit party the leadership candidates have already abandoned the WA.
> @Black_Rook said: > UK: estimated declaration times > > The following regions will declare at the below times, according to the Press Association: > > > East Midlands – 11.30pm Sunday (11.20pm in 2014). > > Eastern – 11.30pm Sunday (10.30pm in 2014). > > London – 2am Monday (3.06am in 2014). > > North-east – 10.30pm Sunday (10.15pm in 2014). > > North-west – 12.30am Monday (12.24am in 2014). > > Scotland – 11am Monday (12.35pm in 2014). N.B. Seats allocation for Scotland will be known from overnight local counts but the Western Isles count taking place later in the day will delay the final declaration. > > Wales – 12.01am Monday (11.38pm Sunday in 2014). > > South-east – 1am Monday (12.46am in 2014). > > South-west – 11pm Sunday (11.38pm in 2014). > > West Midlands – 12.01am Monday (12.30am in 2014). > > Yorkshire & the Humber – 11pm Sunday (11.28pm in 2014).
--------------------- Given all the snippets we've already heard I should think they'll all declare at 10.01. Can't imagine how London will take until 2am. gven they've been counting all afternoon.
> Tory posters seemingly excited by that like old times, whilst entirely missing the point. <
+++++
It's because us centre-righties expected to be alone in our shame and humiliation, now we get to share it with you. Hi there!
Why would you want to be in the same bracket as a bunch of Corbynistas? I would have thought anything up to and including a cattle prod in the balls would be preferable.
> @not_on_fire said: > Has anyone worked out at what a Parliament elected under d’Hondt rules and the EU elections regions would look like? It seems quite a good way of giving smaller parties representation whilst acknowledging landslides when they occur.
Flavible Politics does this for every poll over on Twitter. Here's the latest Survation:
> @kle4 said: > What this result may do is actually create a brexit deal to be more likely. Both main parties need it to happen and fast. > > Untrue. We've seen the response of labour figures that they should be more pro remain, and the Tories are so scared of Brexit party the leadership candidates have already abandoned the WA. > > They are polarizing.
> @Paristonda said: > > @Paristonda said: > > > is there a youtube bbc election coverage for those of us not in uk? there was for the general election but cant find one now > > > > Sky news have a live stream on youtube. Not sure about BBC. > > thanks, guess that'll have to do!
> @Freggles said: > > @not_on_fire said: > > Has anyone worked out at what a Parliament elected under d’Hondt rules and the EU elections regions would look like? It seems quite a good way of giving smaller parties representation whilst acknowledging landslides when they occur. > > Flavible Politics does this for every poll over on Twitter. Here's the latest Survation: > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1131680887748419586?s=20
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > I do find this amusing from the BBC website > > > "Why isn't the BBC carrying exit polls? > > A reminder that the BBC is following UK law on reporting any exit polls or projections that might exist out there. > > Under UK law, there are restrictions about what broadcasters can say while polls are open. > > The European Parliament's own website is providing up-to-date exit polls from EU member states as well as projecting what they mean for the make-up of the Parliament." > > So to comply with their interpretation of EU law the UK has banned exit polls or projections whilst the European Parliament itself is happily posting both.
The EU directive says nothing of exit polls, so it's not clear why exit polls ended up in UK law...
It's a useful reminder that our politicians are so brain dead and moronic that they'll draw the conclusions they want to tonight regardless of the results.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > There's one house in my town with five CUK posters (multicoloured supermarket barcodes is what they look like). > > > > I was stunned, surprised and amused. More or less in that order. > > > > I've never seen any anywhere else. > > It could be one of their candidates or a relative of one.
Comments
> > @williamglenn said:
> > A Labour collapse makes a Tory recovery harder. You can't "beat Corbyn" if Corbyn isn't your most important opponent.
>
> Two sclerotic pillars propping each other up.
Perhaps it's best just to let the dice fly high and see where we end up. Our formal political division no longer seems to represent actual political divisions, and maybe we're just going through another 1918-35 period.
>
> You could easily imagine him defecting in the morning too.
I'd find it hard to imagine. His self-image would be too conflicted.
He might as well say that the moon's supply of green cheese will end if we remain in the EU.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > I wouldn't be shocked if Dan Hannan is the only Tory MEP elected tonight.
>
> You could easily imagine him defecting in the morning too.
You'd almost feel sorry for Nige were that to happen.
> If the snp only get 2 meps they will be disappointed. I can’t see Ruth Davidson being impressed either. She is ready to use this election as an excuse to take much stronger control of the Scottish conservatives following her maternity leave. Another reason why hard brexit has died tonight.
>
> It would be a huge blow for them and ironically would be used by the headbangers in the party to demand leadership change when it is the headbangers that have caused the SNP to leak votes.
I stand to be corrected by events, as ever, but I don't buy the SNP finishing on 2 out of 6 again. Not with the state to which Labour has been reduced compared to last time.
It'll be more interesting to see how much of the Tory vote actually sticks with them, or whether the Brexit Party has a reasonably good night. 38% of Scots voted Leave, so the votes are there to be mined, and Ukip did win one of the seats there last time.
The big exception to this is likely to be Italy, where Salvini looks likely to make very large gains, while the M5S is stagnant, or even drops back slightly. (And the Centre Left gets hammered)
> > @williamglenn said:
> > A Labour collapse makes a Tory recovery harder. You can't "beat Corbyn" if Corbyn isn't your most important opponent.
>
> Spot on. They desperately need each other.
Anyone still think Labour are looking forward to the Peterborough by-election?
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > Alastair probably ruing the Hungarian poll (not an exit poll I don't think):
> >
> > Fidesz-KDNP-EPP: 56%
> > MSZP-P-S&D-G/EFA: 10%
> > DK-S&D: 10%
> > Jobbik-NI: 9%
> > Momentum-ALDE: 7%
> > LMP-G/EFA: 3%
> > Mi Hazánk-NI: 3%
> > MKKP-NI: 2%
>
> Sadly expected.
Why is Orban so incredibly popular?
Cons are going to be thrashed in Scotland, they'll lose their Brexi voters to, errr, the Brexit party and their Remain voters to the Lib Dems
Lid Dems switched to SCon in huge numbers in 2017, this could be a fatal permanent switch back.
We could be witnessing the end of the Ruth Davidson project.
BXP 37%
LD 32%
GRN 8%
LAB 8%
CON 6%
OTH 9%
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > Alastair probably ruing the Hungarian poll (not an exit poll I don't think):
> > >
> > > Fidesz-KDNP-EPP: 56%
> > > MSZP-P-S&D-G/EFA: 10%
> > > DK-S&D: 10%
> > > Jobbik-NI: 9%
> > > Momentum-ALDE: 7%
> > > LMP-G/EFA: 3%
> > > Mi Hazánk-NI: 3%
> > > MKKP-NI: 2%
> >
> > Sadly expected.
>
> Why is Orban so incredibly popular?
The economy is good, he’s very bright, his opponents’ supporters are on a voluntary conveyor belt to other countries and his opponents are hopeless. More or less complete control of the media and state apparatus helps a lot too.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > A Labour collapse makes a Tory recovery harder. You can't "beat Corbyn" if Corbyn isn't your most important opponent.
>
> Two sclerotic pillars propping each other up.
Much truth to this, especially in the case of the Conservatives. I imagine that an awful lot of the Tory vote at the next GE will consist of people backing them in an effort to keep Corbyn and friends out of power, and for no other reason.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > This aged well...
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/716184709496180736
>
> Yet we are still in the EU, and bound by state interference rules.
+++++++++++
This is a classic example of the genius of Farage. He can call the EU a "protectionist racket" to get people like me on board. Then he can tweet "what's wrong with protectionism" or "vote Leave to subsidise our steel industry" to get the Labour Leavers on board.
> Labour are in for a very bad one.
>
> Tory posters seemingly excited by that like old times, whilst entirely missing the point.
It serves Labour right for sabotaging Brexit in the hope of destroying the Tories. They've destroyed themselves too.
As James K has so astutely explained over on Twitter it was overwhelmingly in the survival interests of both the Tories and Labour to get Brexit done and through so normal two party politics could be restored.
Together they have almost 90% of the MPs in the House of Commons, and no excuses.
> AVE IT final forecast!
>
> BXP 37%
> LD 32%
> GRN 8%
> LAB 8%
> CON 6%
> OTH 9%
Fing hell
If you've got that right, you'll deserve whatever you get...
> This aged well...
>
>
> https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/716184709496180736
Yep. It turns out he was absolutely right.
> AVE IT final forecast!
>
> BXP 37%
> LD 32%
> GRN 8%
> LAB 8%
> CON 6%
> OTH 9%
32% for the LDs? Bloody hell.
> Just read a great quote on opinion polls from Efthimia Efthimiou; 'they're like sausages - you don't want to know what they're made of'
Haha ! I wonder what Survation put in.
> AVE IT final forecast!
>
> BXP 37%
> LD 32%
> GRN 8%
> LAB 8%
> CON 6%
> OTH 9%
I think you're at least ten points too high with the LD forecast.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > > Alastair probably ruing the Hungarian poll (not an exit poll I don't think):
> > > >
> > > > Fidesz-KDNP-EPP: 56%
> > > > MSZP-P-S&D-G/EFA: 10%
> > > > DK-S&D: 10%
> > > > Jobbik-NI: 9%
> > > > Momentum-ALDE: 7%
> > > > LMP-G/EFA: 3%
> > > > Mi Hazánk-NI: 3%
> > > > MKKP-NI: 2%
> > >
> > > Sadly expected.
> >
> > Why is Orban so incredibly popular?
>
> The economy is good, he’s very bright, his opponents’ supporters are on a voluntary conveyor belt to other countries and his opponents are hopeless. More or less complete control of the media and state apparatus helps a lot too.
Would Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore be an accurate comparison?
EPP 177 (-39)
S&D 147 (-40)
ALDE 101 (+32)
G/EFA 69 (+17)
ECR 59 (-18)
ENF 57 (+21)
EFDD 56 (+14)
GUE/NGL 42 (-10)
NI 8 (-12)
Others 35 (+35) Brexit Party??
> I wouldn't be shocked if Dan Hannan is the only Tory MEP elected tonight.
Good. He is the best of the lot of them anyway.
> Latest prognosis European Parliament:
> EPP 177 (-39)
> S&D 147 (-40)
> ALDE 101 (+32)
> G/EFA 69 (+17)
> ECR 59 (-18)
> ENF 57 (+21)
> EFDD 56 (+14)
> GUE/NGL 42 (-10)
> NI 8 (-12)
> Others 35 (+35) Brexit Party??
Brexit is part of EFDD isn't it?
> What this result may do is actually create a brexit deal to be more likely. Both main parties need it to happen and fast.
Except that they can't agree to back the existing Deal, nothing else is on offer from the EU, and in any event many, if not most, of the MPs on both sides have both dug in for absolute victory (either Remain or Clean Brexit.)
Apart from that, yes, agreement between the Hard Left high command of Labour and the non-existent/soon-to-be Populist Right leadership of the Conservatives has become significantly more likely.
> AVE IT final forecast!
>
> BXP 37%
> LD 32%
> GRN 8%
> LAB 8%
> CON 6%
> OTH 9%
WOW! AveIt!
> Latest prognosis European Parliament:
> EPP 177 (-39)
> S&D 147 (-40)
> ALDE 101 (+32)
> G/EFA 69 (+17)
> ECR 59 (-18)
> ENF 57 (+21)
> EFDD 56 (+14)
> GUE/NGL 42 (-10)
> NI 8 (-12)
> Others 35 (+35) Brexit Party??
Brexit Party is in EFDD.
> Just read a great quote on opinion polls from Efthimia Efthimiou; 'they're like sausages - you don't want to know what they're made of'
>
> They have been offally far out recently.
load of tripe if you ask me...
> > @AndyJS said:
> > I wouldn't be shocked if Dan Hannan is the only Tory MEP elected tonight.
>
> Good. He is the best of the lot of them anyway.
What do you think about his record of dishonesty and confabulation?
In the same way I would say Khrushchev was the best leader of the Russian Empire (briefly known as the Soviet Union).
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > Latest prognosis European Parliament:
> > EPP 177 (-39)
> > S&D 147 (-40)
> > ALDE 101 (+32)
> > G/EFA 69 (+17)
> > ECR 59 (-18)
> > ENF 57 (+21)
> > EFDD 56 (+14)
> > GUE/NGL 42 (-10)
> > NI 8 (-12)
> > Others 35 (+35) Brexit Party??
>
> Brexit is part of EFDD isn't it?
I'd have thought that Fidesz would also be leaving the EPP, which would reduce their score further.
> LibDem vote of 30%+ has dropped to 7 on BF
Last matched: 60
Something must be in the air tonight. After about 25 years of playing Scrabble I just got my first 7 letter word, using all my letters up. The word was the very politically incorrect "cretins".
> Latest prognosis European Parliament:
> EPP 177 (-39)
> S&D 147 (-40)
> ALDE 101 (+32)
> G/EFA 69 (+17)
> ECR 59 (-18)
> ENF 57 (+21)
> EFDD 56 (+14)
> GUE/NGL 42 (-10)
> NI 8 (-12)
> Others 35 (+35) Brexit Party??
So, the Eurosceptic Right (ECR + ENF + EFDD) is up 17, the Eurosceptic Left (GUE/NGL) is down 10. However, within that, the more Eurosceptic Right has won from the slightly less Europesceptic Right.
Traditional parties (EPP and S&D) have lost out everywhere to both the Eurosceptic Right, and the Euroenthusastic Center (ALDE +32) and the Greens (+17).
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > > > Alastair probably ruing the Hungarian poll (not an exit poll I don't think):
> > > > >
> > > > > Fidesz-KDNP-EPP: 56%
> > > > > MSZP-P-S&D-G/EFA: 10%
> > > > > DK-S&D: 10%
> > > > > Jobbik-NI: 9%
> > > > > Momentum-ALDE: 7%
> > > > > LMP-G/EFA: 3%
> > > > > Mi Hazánk-NI: 3%
> > > > > MKKP-NI: 2%
> > > >
> > > > Sadly expected.
> > >
> > > Why is Orban so incredibly popular?
> >
> > The economy is good, he’s very bright, his opponents’ supporters are on a voluntary conveyor belt to other countries and his opponents are hopeless. More or less complete control of the media and state apparatus helps a lot too.
>
> Would Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore be an accurate comparison?
Lee Kuan Yew was less corrupt and more interested in his country’s economic success. They are cut from a similar cloth though.
> Just read a great quote on opinion polls from Efthimia Efthimiou; 'they're like sausages - you don't want to know what they're made of'
v good, but Bismarck said it first (about laws)
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > I wouldn't be shocked if Dan Hannan is the only Tory MEP elected tonight.
> >
> > Good. He is the best of the lot of them anyway.
>
> What do you think about his record of dishonesty and confabulation?
It is all I your imagination or lack of understanding.
"AVE IT final forecast!"
BXP 37%
LD 32%
GRN 8%
LAB 8%
CON 6%
OTH 9%
.......................................................
That's exceedingly naughty of you to effectively "bar chart" the LibDems ....
I'm afraid the ineluctable conclusion is all our politicians are utter shits.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @StuartDickson said:
> > > Latest prognosis European Parliament:
> > > EPP 177 (-39)
> > > S&D 147 (-40)
> > > ALDE 101 (+32)
> > > G/EFA 69 (+17)
> > > ECR 59 (-18)
> > > ENF 57 (+21)
> > > EFDD 56 (+14)
> > > GUE/NGL 42 (-10)
> > > NI 8 (-12)
> > > Others 35 (+35) Brexit Party??
> >
> > Brexit is part of EFDD isn't it?
>
> I'd have thought that Fidesz would also be leaving the EPP, which would reduce their score further.
Yes, they would be natural members of ECR.
> is there a youtube bbc election coverage for those of us not in uk? there was for the general election but cant find one now
Sky news have a live stream on youtube. Not sure about BBC.
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > I wouldn't be shocked if Dan Hannan is the only Tory MEP elected tonight.
>
>
>
> Good. He is the best of the lot of them anyway.
>
> Oddly, I would agree with you.
>
> In the same way I would say Khrushchev was the best leader of the Russian Empire (briefly known as the Soviet Union).
As with Gove, who will hopefully be the next leader of the Tory party, you are a very poor judge of character.
> Oh, I think SNP 3 seats is nailed on. I also think Brexit party will do better than UKIP did in Scotland last time out.
>
> Cons are going to be thrashed in Scotland, they'll lose their Brexi voters to, errr, the Brexit party and their Remain voters to the Lib Dems
>
> Lid Dems switched to SCon in huge numbers in 2017, this could be a fatal permanent switch back.
>
> We could be witnessing the end of the Ruth Davidson project.
One lives in hope.
The new BBC campaign will be #WullieForFM
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > A Labour collapse makes a Tory recovery harder. You can't "beat Corbyn" if Corbyn isn't your most important opponent.
> >
> > Spot on. They desperately need each other.
>
> Anyone still think Labour are looking forward to the Peterborough by-election?
Hah, about as much as the Tories !"
> https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1132732396493836289?s=21
"We can't just abandon the whole thing."
Nobody's really suggesting that. We should kill it. Drive a stake through its thorax and stuff garlic in its lipless mouth. Burn it to ashes and fire it into the sun.
As for Gove, I'll have what you're having. It's a Bank Holiday!
National Coalition Party (EPP) 20.8% - 3 seats
Elected: Sirpa Pietikäinen MEP, Henna Virkkunen MEP, Petri Sarvamaa MEP
Greens ((Green-EFA) 16.0% - 2 seats (+1)
Elected: Ville Niinistö, Heidi Hautala MEP
Social Democratcs (S&D) 14.6% - 2 seats
Elected: Eero Heinäluoma, Miapetra Kumpula-Natri MEP
True Finns (ECR) 13.8% - 2 seats
Elected: Laura Huhtasaari, Teuvo Hakkarainen
Centre (ALDE) 13.5% - 2 seats (-1)
Elected: Mauri Pekkarinen, Elsi Katainen MEP
Left (GUE) 6.9% - 1 seat
Elected: Silvia Modig
People's Party of Swedish People (ALDE) 6.4% - 1 seat
Elected: Nils Torvalds MEP
* MEP indicates incumbents
Lost seat (not counting those not standing again): Pirkko Ruohonen-Lerner (True Finns), Merja Kyllönen (Left), Mirja Vehkaperä (Centre)
The following regions will declare at the below times, according to the Press Association:
East Midlands – 11.30pm Sunday (11.20pm in 2014).
Eastern – 11.30pm Sunday (10.30pm in 2014).
London – 2am Monday (3.06am in 2014).
North-east – 10.30pm Sunday (10.15pm in 2014).
North-west – 12.30am Monday (12.24am in 2014).
Scotland – 11am Monday (12.35pm in 2014). N.B. Seats allocation for Scotland will be known from overnight local counts but the Western Isles count taking place later in the day will delay the final declaration.
Wales – 12.01am Monday (11.38pm Sunday in 2014).
South-east – 1am Monday (12.46am in 2014).
South-west – 11pm Sunday (11.38pm in 2014).
West Midlands – 12.01am Monday (12.30am in 2014).
Yorkshire & the Humber – 11pm Sunday (11.28pm in 2014).
>
> It is all I your imagination or lack of understanding.
To take a prosaic but irrefutable example, he tweeted photos from his walks that had been taken from images he'd found on the internet.
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/fake-views-mep-daniel-hannan-says-hes-walking-english-countryside-tweets-picture-vermont-usa/
> https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1132733375570165761?s=21
Brexit, Plaid, Lib Dems, Labour, Green, Tories in that order ?:
> > @Ave_it said:
>
> > AVE IT final forecast!
>
> >
>
> > BXP 37%
>
> > LD 32%
>
> > GRN 8%
>
> > LAB 8%
>
> > CON 6%
>
> > OTH 9%
>
>
>
> Fing hell
>
>
>
> If you've got that right, you'll deserve whatever you get...
>
> I think that could be near the mark,. Two parties in the 30s
From the anecdotes, I agree. Maybe Greens a smidge higher than Labour.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1132733375570165761?s=21
>
> Brexit, Plaid, Lib Dems, Labour, Green, Tories in that order ?:
Labour might be third.
> Labour are in for a very bad one.
>
> Tory posters seemingly excited by that like old times, whilst entirely missing the point. <
+++++
It's because us centre-righties expected to be alone in our shame and humiliation, now we get to share it with you. Hi there!
"Why isn't the BBC carrying exit polls?
A reminder that the BBC is following UK law on reporting any exit polls or projections that might exist out there.
Under UK law, there are restrictions about what broadcasters can say while polls are open.
The European Parliament's own website is providing up-to-date exit polls from EU member states as well as projecting what they mean for the make-up of the Parliament."
So to comply with their interpretation of EU law the UK has banned exit polls or projections whilst the European Parliament itself is happily posting both.
They are polarizing.
> UK: estimated declaration times
>
> The following regions will declare at the below times, according to the Press Association:
>
>
> East Midlands – 11.30pm Sunday (11.20pm in 2014).
>
> Eastern – 11.30pm Sunday (10.30pm in 2014).
>
> London – 2am Monday (3.06am in 2014).
>
> North-east – 10.30pm Sunday (10.15pm in 2014).
>
> North-west – 12.30am Monday (12.24am in 2014).
>
> Scotland – 11am Monday (12.35pm in 2014). N.B. Seats allocation for Scotland will be known from overnight local counts but the Western Isles count taking place later in the day will delay the final declaration.
>
> Wales – 12.01am Monday (11.38pm Sunday in 2014).
>
> South-east – 1am Monday (12.46am in 2014).
>
> South-west – 11pm Sunday (11.38pm in 2014).
>
> West Midlands – 12.01am Monday (12.30am in 2014).
>
> Yorkshire & the Humber – 11pm Sunday (11.28pm in 2014).
---------------------
Given all the snippets we've already heard I should think they'll all declare at 10.01. Can't imagine how London will take until 2am. gven they've been counting all afternoon.
> @kle4 said:
> I could not quite believe that projection with Tories on 10 seats - theyd be over the moon.
> Has anyone worked out at what a Parliament elected under d’Hondt rules and the EU elections regions would look like? It seems quite a good way of giving smaller parties representation whilst acknowledging landslides when they occur.
Flavible Politics does this for every poll over on Twitter. Here's the latest Survation:
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1131680887748419586?s=20
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1132733375570165761?s=21
>
> Brexit, Plaid, Lib Dems, Labour, Green, Tories in that order ?:
If they are that low surely they could slip below Change too? We must be talking buttons percent for 6th
> What this result may do is actually create a brexit deal to be more likely. Both main parties need it to happen and fast.
>
> Untrue. We've seen the response of labour figures that they should be more pro remain, and the Tories are so scared of Brexit party the leadership candidates have already abandoned the WA.
>
> They are polarizing.
Ulsterization: part 14 in an ongoing series
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1132736950069268480
> > @Paristonda said:
>
> > is there a youtube bbc election coverage for those of us not in uk? there was for the general election but cant find one now
>
>
>
> Sky news have a live stream on youtube. Not sure about BBC.
>
> thanks, guess that'll have to do!
Check your vanillamail.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > Has anyone worked out at what a Parliament elected under d’Hondt rules and the EU elections regions would look like? It seems quite a good way of giving smaller parties representation whilst acknowledging landslides when they occur.
>
> Flavible Politics does this for every poll over on Twitter. Here's the latest Survation:
>
> https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1131680887748419586?s=20
Very very hung
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515
If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share.
> I do find this amusing from the BBC website
>
>
> "Why isn't the BBC carrying exit polls?
>
> A reminder that the BBC is following UK law on reporting any exit polls or projections that might exist out there.
>
> Under UK law, there are restrictions about what broadcasters can say while polls are open.
>
> The European Parliament's own website is providing up-to-date exit polls from EU member states as well as projecting what they mean for the make-up of the Parliament."
>
> So to comply with their interpretation of EU law the UK has banned exit polls or projections whilst the European Parliament itself is happily posting both.
The EU directive says nothing of exit polls, so it's not clear why exit polls ended up in UK law...
> https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1132728085764354048
>
> Heart of stone, etc.
It's a useful reminder that our politicians are so brain dead and moronic that they'll draw the conclusions they want to tonight regardless of the results.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> >
> > There's one house in my town with five CUK posters (multicoloured supermarket barcodes is what they look like).
> >
> > I was stunned, surprised and amused. More or less in that order.
> >
> > I've never seen any anywhere else.
>
> It could be one of their candidates or a relative of one.
Indeed.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1132733375570165761?s=21
> >
> > Brexit, Plaid, Lib Dems, Labour, Green, Tories in that order ?:
>
> If they are that low surely they could slip below Change too? We must be talking buttons percent for 6th
Nah, the Tories will be well ahead of Change and UKIP - those really are * parties.
> Omg . Labour apparently smashed in Islington and apparently 4th in Bristol !
Wow if Labour are 4th in Bristol that’s unbelievable. They have majorities of 5k, 13.5k, 16k and 37k in Parliament.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> >
> > It is all I your imagination or lack of understanding.
>
> To take a prosaic but irrefutable example, he tweeted photos from his walks that had been taken from images he'd found on the internet.
>
> https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/fake-views-mep-daniel-hannan-says-hes-walking-english-countryside-tweets-picture-vermont-usa/
If you can prove he wasn't walking at the time you would have a point. If not then once again you are talking rubbish.