> There was a large anti-Brexit vote for Lab last time. In middle class big house areas. It was a protest plus no one thought he would win. Now that Jezza's intentions have become clear , or rather unclear, and it is in the realms of the possible that Lab could win, I don't see that vote staying with him.
Always worth remembering, whenever we get to the next GE. I suspect that a fair fraction of the Labour vote in 2017 only backed Corbyn because they had had their heads pumped full of polling trash by broadcasters and concluded that he had no chance of winning.
Labour ought to get a lot more scrutiny in the next campaign, and I doubt that its ideas on, for example, partial expropriation of utilities will do especially well.
Nasty, expensive, horrid electricity providers today. Your house tomorrow.
Mmm where to draw the line. Such a powerful and valid observation.
> @ah009 said: > > @IanB2 said: > > Anyone who has £5000 sitting in an instant access account and is willing to trust BF with it doesn’t need £5 > > Obviously I'm talking about all the geniuses on here who continually make money with their predictions, have over 5k sat in BF ready to withdraw. Might as well grab the free money. Should be paid out by this time tomorrow.
It's a fair shout but I don't have 5 grand in Betfair at the moment.
> @timmo said: > The final insult for Keir Starmer . > > > > Apparently the Lib Dems are leading in Holborn and St Pancras! > > Nowhere is safe for labour... > > Sadiq Khan must be getting a bit worried
If you're a BXP voter and and your party is eliminated in third place, who does your preference go to between Labour and Lib Dems? I mean, ignoring the obvious Islamophobes which will make up a significant minority. I don't think the answer's obvious. Clearly Labour have a "better" Brexit position than the Lib Dems for Brexiters. But there is a strong anyone-but-Labour current amongst Brexiters too.
> @Phil said: > > > Lots of people end their career on £75k? Are you having a giraffe? That’s about the 97th percentile gross salary. > > To be clear, if your career starts @ 21 on a graduate salary of £35k then it probably has the potential to top out at £75k or more I would imagine. > > Obviously most people are not on those kind of salaries (I’m certainly not!) but I was simply pointing out that the Times has probably chosen the worst possible corner case for their £179k figure & not something that’s likely to be experiences by the vast majority of graduates. If you earn enough to end up paying 179k in graduate tax then I suspect you’ve still done pretty well in the grand scheme of things...
2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him
2019 does have a different feel to it
Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now.
It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored.
There is clearly something behind TBP. No-one has so far found out what. Similarly, it was only after the referendum that the scale and professionalism of Leave's backroom became evident.
Isn’t there something behind every party? You make it sound so sinister. What is interesting is that it was built up in a few months.
> @ah009 said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > @Stereotomy said: > > > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll? > > > > I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland. > > Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow?
Yes, I believe that NI doesn't start til the morning.
I also seem to recall reading that the final result from Scotland would take until tomorrow. Whether this is something to do with gathering results from remote rural areas, the Western Isles not wanting their votes counted on the Sabbath, or both, I don't know.
> @rcs1000 said: > @another_richard said: > For most of Europe laws were something which were imposed on them by distant authoritarian governments with no pretence of democracy - Moscow, Istanbul, Vienna, Rome (the Catholic church) - and so were to be implemented laxly or ignored where possible. > > ++++++++++++++ > > That's a very interesting observation. Essentially, your job as head of part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire was to dilute as much as possible the instructions from the centre. You'd probably spend hours working out what the absolute minimum level of compliance was required to avoid getting you into trouble with your superiors. > > While in the UK, we've had a policy of trying to work out what exactly Brussels has meant, and tried to stretch it maximally so as to make sure that we'd been good boys.
Quite often, the rulers of multi-national Empires, like the Ottomans, aren't that bothered what their subjects get up to, so long as they pay taxes and provide soldiers.
Another oddity of such States is that sometimes, the core ethnic group gets sidelined by minorities who flourish. 18th century Russia was dominated by Germans (like Catherine the Great) the Ottoman Empire by Albanians and Circassians.
"It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years."
This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life.
I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
I'm starting to wonder if Gove is the best bet for the Con Party.
Simply because he is the only person with the determination and focus to actually sort things out - like the above idiotic situation - which both needs sorting and must be sorted for Con to win next time.
Can we be confident that any other candidate would actually get the job done? I don't think so.
Of course his polling figures are a big worry. But it's likely that if he becomes PM he will very quickly just be judged on what he does as PM - past views of him should fade pretty quickly.
> @timmo said: > The final insult for Keir Starmer . > > > > Apparently the Lib Dems are leading in Holborn and St Pancras! > > Nowhere is safe for labour... > > Sadiq Khan must be getting a bit worried
He’ll walk the mayoral election. Just as Starmer will walk the Holborn & St Pancras come the GE. The one who might be getting a bit nervous is Emily Thornberry.
> @JackW said: > @nico67 said: > > "The final insult for Keir Starmer . > > Apparently the Lib Dems are leading in Holborn and St Pancras! " > > ................................................................................................ > > St. Pancras .... So it's a wizard performance from the LibDems at Platform 9 3/4 .... > > I'll get my cape .... >
> @Foxy said: > to repost from Wed 2300, I may have been too optomistic for Lab and pessimistic for LDs. > > > > @Floater said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > > > > > 33% Turnout > > > > > > 31% BXP > > > 21% LD > > > 14% Con > > > 12% Lab > > > 10% Green > > > 4% CHUK > > > 4% UKIP > > > 4% Other > > > > > > > > > > That's a joke right? > > > > Labour below tories? > > > > Can't see it. > > Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads. > > I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD. > > Any one else keen to forecast?
I'll go
32% BXP 19% LD 15% Lab 12% Con 9% Green 4% UKIP 3% ChUK (lol) 6% other
> @El_Capitano said: > 2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him > > 2019 does have a different feel to it > > > > Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now. > > > > It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored. > > There is clearly something behind TBP. No-one has so far found out what. Similarly, it was only after the referendum that the scale and professionalism of Leave's backroom became evident. > > Isn’t there something behind every party? You make it sound so sinister. What is interesting is that it was built up in a few months. > > It's been built up in a few months without anyone noticing. There haven't been massive "chip in £50 to keep Brexit" appeals. It's not necessarily any more sinister than party funding generally is, but it's an untold story, and if TBP do sweep the board tonight then there's going to be a lot of interest in telling it.
Haven't they said that a large majority of their funding come from small donors? Perhaps there has been a massive fundraising drive, but it was targeted at the people who might actually cough up and so you missed it
> @Black_Rook said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > @Stereotomy said: > > > > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll? > > > > > > I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland. > > > > Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow? > > Yes, I believe that NI doesn't start til the morning. > > I also seem to recall reading that the final result from Scotland would take until tomorrow. Whether this is something to do with gathering results from remote rural areas, the Western Isles not wanting their votes counted on the Sabbath, or both, I don't know.
It'll be the Western Isles, I bet. Not rurality, but religion.
> @Black_Rook said: > > @ah009 said: > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > @Stereotomy said: > > > > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll? > > > > > > I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland. > > > > Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow? > > Yes, I believe that NI doesn't start til the morning. > > I also seem to recall reading that the final result from Scotland would take until tomorrow. Whether this is something to do with gathering results from remote rural areas, the Western Isles not wanting their votes counted on the Sabbath, or both, I don't know.
Given we voted on Thursday you'd think all the counts would be ready to go at 10pm
Well insulting your voters is not going to well is it? If you regard any disaffection as treachery then pretty soon you don't have a dialogue, and if you don;t understand your voters, you don;t keep them. The fault is NOT with the voters.
> @RobD said: > > @El_Capitano said: > > 2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him > > > > 2019 does have a different feel to it > > > > > > > > Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now. > > > > > > > > It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored. > > > > There is clearly something behind TBP. No-one has so far found out what. Similarly, it was only after the referendum that the scale and professionalism of Leave's backroom became evident. > > > > Isn’t there something behind every party? You make it sound so sinister. What is interesting is that it was built up in a few months. > > > > It's been built up in a few months without anyone noticing. There haven't been massive "chip in £50 to keep Brexit" appeals. It's not necessarily any more sinister than party funding generally is, but it's an untold story, and if TBP do sweep the board tonight then there's going to be a lot of interest in telling it. > > Haven't they said that a large majority of their funding come from small donors? Perhaps there has been a massive fundraising drive, but it was targeted at the people who might actually cough up and so you missed it
£200 from Vladimir £200 from Vladymir £200 from Vladimyr £200 from Vladymyr £200 from Valdimir ...
Haven't they said that a large majority of their funding come from small donors? Perhaps there has been a massive fundraising drive, but it was targeted at the people who might actually cough up and so you missed it
Ha, yes. Though YouTube does keep suggesting I might like "Watch Jacob Rees-Mogg ABSOLUTELY DESTROY this liberal snowflake", which reassures me that targetting algorithms aren't yet quite as good as some make them out to be...
FWIW my personal expectation is that the Tories and Labour will have both collapsed in the south, and it'll be a race between Brexit and LibDems, and we might see Change UK doing a bit better than many thought. But we'll soon know.
> @ydoethur said: > 2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him > > 2019 does have a different feel to it > > > > Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now. > > > > It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored. > > There is clearly something behind TBP. No-one has so far found out what. Similarly, it was only after the referendum that the scale and professionalism of Leave's backroom became evident. > > Isn’t there something behind every party? You make it sound so sinister. What is interesting is that it was built up in a few months. > > Who knows what the BP have Putin?
> @rcs1000 said: > > @Byronic said: > > If BXP are nine points up on UKIP 2014, then that's a stonking performance. Earthquake territory. > > That suggests 36% nationwide. That would be a great result for them.
> @isam said: > 31% BXP > > > > 22% LD > > > > 14% Con > > > > 14% Lab > > > > 8% Green > > > > 3% CHUK > > > > 3% UKIP > > > > 5% Other > > > > My forecast FWIW > > My guess is that BXP +UKIP is about 37, and the Lib Dems will get 25
So more of a squeeze of the Lab and Tory ! Lets see! My hunch is that early news is dominated by change of the status quo (ie LD victories etc) and the boring reliable tory or labour voter is not mentioned (due to it being errm boring) .They get counted in the end though!
> @rcs1000 said: > @another_richard said: > For most of Europe laws were something which were imposed on them by distant authoritarian governments with no pretence of democracy - Moscow, Istanbul, Vienna, Rome (the Catholic church) - and so were to be implemented laxly or ignored where possible. > > ++++++++++++++ > > That's a very interesting observation. Essentially, your job as head of part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire was to dilute as much as possible the instructions from the centre. You'd probably spend hours working out what the absolute minimum level of compliance was required to avoid getting you into trouble with your superiors. > > While in the UK, we've had a policy of trying to work out what exactly Brussels has meant, and tried to stretch it maximally so as to make sure that we'd been good boys.
You can add Madrid to the list.
It strikes me that the most famous English flouter of laws was Robin Hood and he is associated with opposing authoritarian foreign oppression.
Likewise the Robert Bruce and Rob Roys in Scotland and the Welsh and Irish equivalents.
> @RobC said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > @ah009 said: > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > @Stereotomy said: > > > > > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll? > > > > > > > > I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland. > > > > > > Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow? > > > > Yes, I believe that NI doesn't start til the morning. > > > > I also seem to recall reading that the final result from Scotland would take until tomorrow. Whether this is something to do with gathering results from remote rural areas, the Western Isles not wanting their votes counted on the Sabbath, or both, I don't know. > > Given we voted on Thursday you'd think all the counts would be ready to go at 10pm
The EC rules say votes *can* be counted any time after Thursday night.. so that would/could have got round any sabbath shenanigans. That said, given the sieve-like data security from counts today, I can see why most councils have left it till today.
The 'something' behind BXP, as reported widely over the last couple of weeks, is online communication and organisation methods copied directly, and quite unashamedly, from the five-star movement in italy, mixed with unaccountable funding that Nigel says is proudly to do with the Brexit party "being a company rather than a party". Some similarities with Corbyn and Sanders's online ground operation, mixed with some mysterious big money - again, which always seems to follow Farage around, for some mysterious reason I could ne'er quite imagine.
> @El_Capitano said: > Haven't they said that a large majority of their funding come from small donors? Perhaps there has been a massive fundraising drive, but it was targeted at the people who might actually cough up and so you missed it > > Ha, yes. Though YouTube does keep suggesting I might like "Watch Jacob Rees-Mogg ABSOLUTELY DESTROY this liberal snowflake", which reassures me that targetting algorithms aren't yet quite as good as some make them out to be...
You've been watching videos about liberal snowflakes, clearly.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > If BXP are nine points up on UKIP 2014, then that's a stonking performance. Earthquake territory. > > > > That suggests 36% nationwide. That would be a great result for them. > > Not too well I hope, I'm laying the 40+ band.
> @RobC said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > @ah009 said: > > > > @Black_Rook said: > > > > > @Stereotomy said: > > > > > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll? > > > > > > > > I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland. > > > > > > Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow? > > > > Yes, I believe that NI doesn't start til the morning. > > > > I also seem to recall reading that the final result from Scotland would take until tomorrow. Whether this is something to do with gathering results from remote rural areas, the Western Isles not wanting their votes counted on the Sabbath, or both, I don't know. > > Given we voted on Thursday you'd think all the counts would be ready to go at 10pm
I believe that Northern Ireland never counts overnight regardless.
If the Sabbatarian theory of the delayed Scottish result is right then we may effectively have a result by the same time as England and Wales, even if the count in one local authority area is held over so that the formal declaration can't come until tomorrow.
> @ah009 said: > > @JackW said: > > @nico67 said: > > > > "The final insult for Keir Starmer . > > > > Apparently the Lib Dems are leading in Holborn and St Pancras! " > > > > ................................................................................................ > > > > St. Pancras .... So it's a wizard performance from the LibDems at Platform 9 3/4 .... > > > > I'll get my cape .... > > > > The Lib Dems are goblin up the reds' vote share.
That Britain Elects forecast will be embarrassingly wrong. It's based on contradictory polls and we already know enough to say which ones have called it badly.
> @NickPalmer said: > FWIW my personal expectation is that the Tories and Labour will have both collapsed in the south, and it'll be a race between Brexit and LibDems, and we might see Change UK doing a bit better than many thought. But we'll soon know.
I wonder if the Conservatives will get more votes in the North than the South.
If Britain Elects are right then that's.... slightly underwhelming.
I mean it's great for BXP and good for the LDs, and bad-ish for Labour and bad bad for the Tories. But it's not the meltdown we were all hoping for (just for the fun).
Yawn
I'm going to the gym. We need more interesting rumours.
> @isam said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > If BXP are nine points up on UKIP 2014, then that's a stonking performance. Earthquake territory. > > > > > > That suggests 36% nationwide. That would be a great result for them. > > > > Not too well I hope, I'm laying the 40+ band. > > I reckon many BXP voters have voted UKIP by mistake
i did have a crafty £10 on UKIP winning at least one seat at 5/1 because of this , especially as when i wen to vote it was clearly drawing my eye to it being last on the paper where as TBP was a bit lost in the late middle
> @williamglenn said: > That Britain Elects forecast will be embarrassingly wrong. It's based on contradictory polls and we already know enough to say which ones have called it badly.
What we know is a bunch of rumour and speculation.
> @Byronic said: > Cat amongst the pigeons.... > > Britain Elects have just published THIS > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132697981780725775 > > Given that, according to their prior tweet, they are about to publish their most authoritative prediction yet, why would they publish this article and risk looking utter fools, just forty minutes before their prediction?? > > Have Labour done much better than we think? > > Eeek!
I will be seeing Status Quo at Birmingham at the end of June. I am not aware they ever retired so don't see why this should be classed as a comeback
> > > If BXP are nine points up on UKIP 2014, then that's a stonking performance. Earthquake territory.
t; That suggests 36% nationwide. That would be a great result for them. > Not too well I hope, I'm laying the 40+ band.
>
> I reckon many BXP voters have voted UKIP by mistake
i did have a crafty £10 on UKIP winning at least one seat at 5/1 because of this , especially as when i wen to vote it was clearly drawing my eye to it being last on the paper where as TBP was a bit lost in the late middle
I almost accidentally voted UKIP, and have heard of many people who did so
I think it is consistent with them. A very good night for both TBP and the Lib Dems, even if Labour and Conservatives get off more lightly than expected.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > I think I'm going to vote for Gove if he makes the final two. > > I think I'll get disowned and removed from a few WhatsApp groups though.
Comments
"The final insult for Keir Starmer .
Apparently the Lib Dems are leading in Holborn and St Pancras! "
................................................................................................
St. Pancras .... So it's a wizard performance from the LibDems at Platform 9 3/4 ....
I'll get my cape ....
https://twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1132664436727123968
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Anyone who has £5000 sitting in an instant access account and is willing to trust BF with it doesn’t need £5
>
> Obviously I'm talking about all the geniuses on here who continually make money with their predictions, have over 5k sat in BF ready to withdraw. Might as well grab the free money. Should be paid out by this time tomorrow.
It's a fair shout but I don't have 5 grand in Betfair at the moment.
> The final insult for Keir Starmer .
>
>
>
> Apparently the Lib Dems are leading in Holborn and St Pancras!
>
> Nowhere is safe for labour...
>
> Sadiq Khan must be getting a bit worried
If you're a BXP voter and and your party is eliminated in third place, who does your preference go to between Labour and Lib Dems?
I mean, ignoring the obvious Islamophobes which will make up a significant minority.
I don't think the answer's obvious. Clearly Labour have a "better" Brexit position than the Lib Dems for Brexiters. But there is a strong anyone-but-Labour current amongst Brexiters too.
>
> > Lots of people end their career on £75k? Are you having a giraffe? That’s about the 97th percentile gross salary.
>
> To be clear, if your career starts @ 21 on a graduate salary of £35k then it probably has the potential to top out at £75k or more I would imagine.
>
> Obviously most people are not on those kind of salaries (I’m certainly not!) but I was simply pointing out that the Times has probably chosen the worst possible corner case for their £179k figure & not something that’s likely to be experiences by the vast majority of graduates. If you earn enough to end up paying 179k in graduate tax then I suspect you’ve still done pretty well in the grand scheme of things...
And if you did even better, you'd pay less
> Hmmm
>
> https://twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1132664436727123968
The story is obviously going to be LD and Brex, but the question is in which proportions.
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @Stereotomy said:
> > > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll?
> >
> > I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
>
> Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow?
Yes, I believe that NI doesn't start til the morning.
I also seem to recall reading that the final result from Scotland would take until tomorrow. Whether this is something to do with gathering results from remote rural areas, the Western Isles not wanting their votes counted on the Sabbath, or both, I don't know.
> Hmmm
>
> https://twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1132664436727123968
Lab vote in SE was only 14.7% - not a big contributor to the national votes
> @another_richard said:
> For most of Europe laws were something which were imposed on them by distant authoritarian governments with no pretence of democracy - Moscow, Istanbul, Vienna, Rome (the Catholic church) - and so were to be implemented laxly or ignored where possible.
>
> ++++++++++++++
>
> That's a very interesting observation. Essentially, your job as head of part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire was to dilute as much as possible the instructions from the centre. You'd probably spend hours working out what the absolute minimum level of compliance was required to avoid getting you into trouble with your superiors.
>
> While in the UK, we've had a policy of trying to work out what exactly Brussels has meant, and tried to stretch it maximally so as to make sure that we'd been good boys.
Quite often, the rulers of multi-national Empires, like the Ottomans, aren't that bothered what their subjects get up to, so long as they pay taxes and provide soldiers.
Another oddity of such States is that sometimes, the core ethnic group gets sidelined by minorities who flourish. 18th century Russia was dominated by Germans (like Catherine the Great) the Ottoman Empire by Albanians and Circassians.
> So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll?
-----------------
We seem to have been getting one throughout this afternoon.
> Siobhan Benita is 33-1 with Ladbrokes to win the mayoralty still... just saying.
Worth a fiver I think (I have backed Khan a bit, so it's partly cover)
Simply because he is the only person with the determination and focus to actually sort things out - like the above idiotic situation - which both needs sorting and must be sorted for Con to win next time.
Can we be confident that any other candidate would actually get the job done? I don't think so.
Of course his polling figures are a big worry. But it's likely that if he becomes PM he will very quickly just be judged on what he does as PM - past views of him should fade pretty quickly.
> The final insult for Keir Starmer .
>
>
>
> Apparently the Lib Dems are leading in Holborn and St Pancras!
>
> Nowhere is safe for labour...
>
> Sadiq Khan must be getting a bit worried
He’ll walk the mayoral election. Just as Starmer will walk the Holborn & St Pancras come the GE. The one who might be getting a bit nervous is Emily Thornberry.
> @nico67 said:
>
> "The final insult for Keir Starmer .
>
> Apparently the Lib Dems are leading in Holborn and St Pancras! "
>
> ................................................................................................
>
> St. Pancras .... So it's a wizard performance from the LibDems at Platform 9 3/4 ....
>
> I'll get my cape ....
>
The Lib Dems are goblin up the reds' vote share.
2002
Lab leads LibDems 6% nationally
Lab leads LibDems 10% in Camden
2006
Lab leads LibDems 1% nationally
Lab leads LibDems 1% in Camden
2010
Lab leads LibDems 6% nationally
Lab leads LibDems 4% in Camden
2014
Lab leads LibDems 18% nationally
Lab leads LibDems 27% in Camden
2018
Lab leads LibDems 19% nationally
Lab leads LibDems 30% in Camden
Numbers from wiki and Andrew Teale.
> to repost from Wed 2300, I may have been too optomistic for Lab and pessimistic for LDs.
>
>
> > @Floater said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> > >
> > > 33% Turnout
> > >
> > > 31% BXP
> > > 21% LD
> > > 14% Con
> > > 12% Lab
> > > 10% Green
> > > 4% CHUK
> > > 4% UKIP
> > > 4% Other
> > >
> > >
> >
> > That's a joke right?
> >
> > Labour below tories?
> >
> > Can't see it.
>
> Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads.
>
> I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD.
>
> Any one else keen to forecast?
I'll go
32% BXP
19% LD
15% Lab
12% Con
9% Green
4% UKIP
3% ChUK (lol)
6% other
> > 22% LD
> > 14% Con
> > 14% Lab
> > 8% Green
> > 3% CHUK
> > 3% UKIP
> > 5% Other
My forecast FWIW
> 2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him
>
> 2019 does have a different feel to it
>
>
>
> Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now.
>
>
>
> It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored.
>
> There is clearly something behind TBP. No-one has so far found out what. Similarly, it was only after the referendum that the scale and professionalism of Leave's backroom became evident.
>
> Isn’t there something behind every party? You make it sound so sinister. What is interesting is that it was built up in a few months.
>
> It's been built up in a few months without anyone noticing. There haven't been massive "chip in £50 to keep Brexit" appeals. It's not necessarily any more sinister than party funding generally is, but it's an untold story, and if TBP do sweep the board tonight then there's going to be a lot of interest in telling it.
Haven't they said that a large majority of their funding come from small donors? Perhaps there has been a massive fundraising drive, but it was targeted at the people who might actually cough up and so you missed it
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > @Stereotomy said:
> > > > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll?
> > >
> > > I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
> >
> > Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow?
>
> Yes, I believe that NI doesn't start til the morning.
>
> I also seem to recall reading that the final result from Scotland would take until tomorrow. Whether this is something to do with gathering results from remote rural areas, the Western Isles not wanting their votes counted on the Sabbath, or both, I don't know.
It'll be the Western Isles, I bet. Not rurality, but religion.
> Judging by some cryptic tweets the Lib Dems think they’ve beaten Labour in Lambeth !
>
>
That is not surprising from all the anecdotes we have been receiving today.
Libdems should easily hit 40% in central London
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > @Stereotomy said:
> > > > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll?
> > >
> > > I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
> >
> > Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow?
>
> Yes, I believe that NI doesn't start til the morning.
>
> I also seem to recall reading that the final result from Scotland would take until tomorrow. Whether this is something to do with gathering results from remote rural areas, the Western Isles not wanting their votes counted on the Sabbath, or both, I don't know.
Given we voted on Thursday you'd think all the counts would be ready to go at 10pm
> This is interesting and true.
>
> https://twitter.com/francessmith/status/1132676306972434434
Well insulting your voters is not going to well is it? If you regard any disaffection as treachery then pretty soon you don't have a dialogue, and if you don;t understand your voters, you don;t keep them. The fault is NOT with the voters.
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > 2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him
> >
> > 2019 does have a different feel to it
> >
> >
> >
> > Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now.
> >
> >
> >
> > It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored.
> >
> > There is clearly something behind TBP. No-one has so far found out what. Similarly, it was only after the referendum that the scale and professionalism of Leave's backroom became evident.
> >
> > Isn’t there something behind every party? You make it sound so sinister. What is interesting is that it was built up in a few months.
> >
> > It's been built up in a few months without anyone noticing. There haven't been massive "chip in £50 to keep Brexit" appeals. It's not necessarily any more sinister than party funding generally is, but it's an untold story, and if TBP do sweep the board tonight then there's going to be a lot of interest in telling it.
>
> Haven't they said that a large majority of their funding come from small donors? Perhaps there has been a massive fundraising drive, but it was targeted at the people who might actually cough up and so you missed it
£200 from Vladimir
£200 from Vladymir
£200 from Vladimyr
£200 from Vladymyr
£200 from Valdimir
...
https://twitter.com/OrkneyCouncil/status/1132707068232777730
> If BXP are nine points up on UKIP 2014, then that's a stonking performance. Earthquake territory.
That suggests 36% nationwide. That would be a great result for them.
> 2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him
>
> 2019 does have a different feel to it
>
>
>
> Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now.
>
>
>
> It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored.
>
> There is clearly something behind TBP. No-one has so far found out what. Similarly, it was only after the referendum that the scale and professionalism of Leave's backroom became evident.
>
> Isn’t there something behind every party? You make it sound so sinister. What is interesting is that it was built up in a few months.
>
> Who knows what the BP have Putin?
The party was certainly built in a Russ.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1132630225710407680
> > @Byronic said:
> > If BXP are nine points up on UKIP 2014, then that's a stonking performance. Earthquake territory.
>
> That suggests 36% nationwide. That would be a great result for them.
Not too well I hope, I'm laying the 40+ band.
> 31% BXP
>
> > > 22% LD
>
> > > 14% Con
>
> > > 14% Lab
>
> > > 8% Green
>
> > > 3% CHUK
>
> > > 3% UKIP
>
> > > 5% Other
>
>
>
> My forecast FWIW
>
> My guess is that BXP +UKIP is about 37, and the Lib Dems will get 25
So more of a squeeze of the Lab and Tory ! Lets see! My hunch is that early news is dominated by change of the status quo (ie LD victories etc) and the boring reliable tory or labour voter is not mentioned (due to it being errm boring) .They get counted in the end though!
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132695096531595266?s=20
+++++++++++
That's the first result where the ENF have really made substantial progress relative to 2014.
> @another_richard said:
> For most of Europe laws were something which were imposed on them by distant authoritarian governments with no pretence of democracy - Moscow, Istanbul, Vienna, Rome (the Catholic church) - and so were to be implemented laxly or ignored where possible.
>
> ++++++++++++++
>
> That's a very interesting observation. Essentially, your job as head of part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire was to dilute as much as possible the instructions from the centre. You'd probably spend hours working out what the absolute minimum level of compliance was required to avoid getting you into trouble with your superiors.
>
> While in the UK, we've had a policy of trying to work out what exactly Brussels has meant, and tried to stretch it maximally so as to make sure that we'd been good boys.
You can add Madrid to the list.
It strikes me that the most famous English flouter of laws was Robin Hood and he is associated with opposing authoritarian foreign oppression.
Likewise the Robert Bruce and Rob Roys in Scotland and the Welsh and Irish equivalents.
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > > @Stereotomy said:
> > > > > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll?
> > > >
> > > > I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
> > >
> > > Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow?
> >
> > Yes, I believe that NI doesn't start til the morning.
> >
> > I also seem to recall reading that the final result from Scotland would take until tomorrow. Whether this is something to do with gathering results from remote rural areas, the Western Isles not wanting their votes counted on the Sabbath, or both, I don't know.
>
> Given we voted on Thursday you'd think all the counts would be ready to go at 10pm
The EC rules say votes *can* be counted any time after Thursday night.. so that would/could have got round any sabbath shenanigans. That said, given the sieve-like data security from counts today, I can see why most councils have left it till today.
> Haven't they said that a large majority of their funding come from small donors? Perhaps there has been a massive fundraising drive, but it was targeted at the people who might actually cough up and so you missed it
>
> Ha, yes. Though YouTube does keep suggesting I might like "Watch Jacob Rees-Mogg ABSOLUTELY DESTROY this liberal snowflake", which reassures me that targetting algorithms aren't yet quite as good as some make them out to be...
You've been watching videos about liberal snowflakes, clearly.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
> https://twitter.com/LJ_Skipper/status/1132706586076549120
The political media equivalent of volunteering to climb into the Wicker Man.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > If BXP are nine points up on UKIP 2014, then that's a stonking performance. Earthquake territory.
> >
> > That suggests 36% nationwide. That would be a great result for them.
>
> Not too well I hope, I'm laying the 40+ band.
Me too.
Le Pen 24%
Macron 22.5%
Greens 12.5%
Republicans 8.5%
Socialists 6.5%
Melenchon 6.5%
Rest below 4%
Threshold is 5%
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > > @Black_Rook said:
> > > > > @Stereotomy said:
> > > > > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll?
> > > >
> > > > I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
> > >
> > > Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow?
> >
> > Yes, I believe that NI doesn't start til the morning.
> >
> > I also seem to recall reading that the final result from Scotland would take until tomorrow. Whether this is something to do with gathering results from remote rural areas, the Western Isles not wanting their votes counted on the Sabbath, or both, I don't know.
>
> Given we voted on Thursday you'd think all the counts would be ready to go at 10pm
I believe that Northern Ireland never counts overnight regardless.
If the Sabbatarian theory of the delayed Scottish result is right then we may effectively have a result by the same time as England and Wales, even if the count in one local authority area is held over so that the formal declaration can't come until tomorrow.
> > @JackW said:
> > @nico67 said:
> >
> > "The final insult for Keir Starmer .
> >
> > Apparently the Lib Dems are leading in Holborn and St Pancras! "
> >
> > ................................................................................................
> >
> > St. Pancras .... So it's a wizard performance from the LibDems at Platform 9 3/4 ....
> >
> > I'll get my cape ....
> >
>
> The Lib Dems are goblin up the reds' vote share.
..........................................................................
Anyone indicating JackW is the Dark Lord will be consigned for life to Azkaban aka ConHome !!
> Here it is. Labour scrape second
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
Labour too high and Lib Dems too low.
I think its going to be a dreadful night for Labour.
> Where is this 7 o clock prediction ?
Refresh!
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
That doesn't quite match up to the hype/speculation/gossip on here.
Let's wait and see
Here it is. Labour scrape second
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
++++++++++++++++
That gives BXP *exactly* the same number of seats as UKIP in 2014.
> FWIW my personal expectation is that the Tories and Labour will have both collapsed in the south, and it'll be a race between Brexit and LibDems, and we might see Change UK doing a bit better than many thought. But we'll soon know.
I wonder if the Conservatives will get more votes in the North than the South.
Has that ever happened before ?
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
>
> That doesn't quite match up to the hype/speculation/gossip on here.
>
> Let's wait and see
PB? Wrong? Never!
I mean it's great for BXP and good for the LDs, and bad-ish for Labour and bad bad for the Tories. But it's not the meltdown we were all hoping for (just for the fun).
Yawn
I'm going to the gym. We need more interesting rumours.
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > https://twitter.com/LJ_Skipper/status/1132706586076549120
>
>
> The political media equivalent of volunteering to climb into the Wicker Man.
I sense Barry Gardiner will have a busy night.
> Here it is. Labour scrape second
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
Second in votes, third in seats. Thank goodness for PR!
> > @rcs1000 said:
>
> > > @Byronic said:
>
> > > If BXP are nine points up on UKIP 2014, then that's a stonking performance. Earthquake territory.
>
> >
>
> > That suggests 36% nationwide. That would be a great result for them.
>
>
>
> Not too well I hope, I'm laying the 40+ band.
>
> I reckon many BXP voters have voted UKIP by mistake
i did have a crafty £10 on UKIP winning at least one seat at 5/1 because of this , especially as when i wen to vote it was clearly drawing my eye to it being last on the paper where as TBP was a bit lost in the late middle
> France exit poll/projections (because polls outside cities closed at 6pm and have started to count)
>
> Le Pen 24%
>
> Macron 22.5%
>
> Greens 12.5%
>
> Republicans 8.5%
>
> Socialists 6.5%
>
> Melenchon 6.5%
>
> Rest below 4%
>
> Threshold is 5%
That's an almost identical vote share for RN to the FN in 2014.
> That Britain Elects forecast will be embarrassingly wrong. It's based on contradictory polls and we already know enough to say which ones have called it badly.
What we know is a bunch of rumour and speculation.
The figures for France Tele are
Le Pen 23%
Macron 22
Greens 12.5
Republicans 8.5%
Socialists 7%
Melenchon 7%
> Cat amongst the pigeons....
>
> Britain Elects have just published THIS
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132697981780725775
>
> Given that, according to their prior tweet, they are about to publish their most authoritative prediction yet, why would they publish this article and risk looking utter fools, just forty minutes before their prediction??
>
> Have Labour done much better than we think?
>
> Eeek!
I will be seeing Status Quo at Birmingham at the end of June. I am not aware they ever retired so don't see why this should be classed as a comeback
> > @Byronic said:
> > Here it is. Labour scrape second
> >
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
>
> Labour too high and Lib Dems too low.
>
> I think its going to be a dreadful night for Labour. <
++++
Yeah, I don't quite buy it. I think the LDs will do a bit better than that, likewise BXP, and Labour somewhat worse.
OK, To The Gym. Later.
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
That prediction doesn't match the anecdotes.
Somebody is going to look pretty stupid pretty soon.
> France exit poll/projections (because polls outside cities closed at 6pm and have started to count)
>
> Le Pen 24%
>
> Macron 22.5%
>
> Greens 12.5%
>
> Republicans 8.5%
>
> Socialists 6.5%
>
> Melenchon 6.5%
>
> Rest below 4%
>
> Threshold is 5%
Imagine if the UK results were the same as this. Lol
BXP in place of Le Pen, Lib dems in place of Macron, Tories in place of Republicans, Labour in place of Socialists, Chuk in place of Melenchon.
Lol, that would be a fun night.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
>
> That doesn't quite match up to the hype/speculation/gossip on here.
>
> Let's wait and see
The Tories would be delighted at that. Hannan was predicting zero seats drama queen that he is. Probably somewhere between the two.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
>
> That prediction doesn't match the anecdotes.
>
> Somebody is going to look pretty stupid pretty soon.
I think it is consistent with them. A very good night for both TBP and the Lib Dems, even if Labour and Conservatives get off more lightly than expected.
The Tories would be delighted at that. Hannan was predicting zero seats drama queen that he is. Probably somewhere between the two.
+++++++++++++++++
The Hannan tweet was a bit embarassing given 6.5% would almost certainly be enough to guarantee a seat in the SE.
But that's MoE stuff.
Not worth building a position on it especially since it may have to be deleted.
I think I'll get disowned and removed from a few WhatsApp groups though.
> I think I'm going to vote for Gove if he makes the final two.
>
> I think I'll get disowned and removed from a few WhatsApp groups though.
I am as well
BXP GAIN Orkney and Shetland?
+++++++++
It was the area that voted most heavily against EU accession in 1974.