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Alright for someTheScreamingEagles said:
That's a typical Sunday for me.isam said:
You should have the chance to talk up a wining betTheScreamingEagles said:I'm editing PB tonight, anything happening in the world politics tonight?
Crudely it looks as though BXP have stormed the North, and LD the South0 -
Tonight might feature a thread headlined 'Dan Hannan, wrong again, the Tory Sion Simon when it comes to predictions'rcs1000 said:@RobC said:
The Tories would be delighted at that. Hannan was predicting zero seats drama queen that he is. Probably somewhere between the two.
+++++++++++++++++
The Hannan tweet was a bit embarassing given 6.5% would almost certainly be enough to guarantee a seat in the SE.0 -
Eating a pineapple pizza a day wouldn't be sufficient penance for such a crime.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I'm going to vote for Gove if he makes the final two.
I think I'll get disowned and removed from a few WhatsApp groups though.0 -
I’d be surprised if that prediction is particularly close to the eventual result.0
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The problem with the BE forecast is the huge differences between the polling companies.
It’s not like the polls are even close by normal standards . The big issue is the Labour v Lib Dem vote .0 -
> @Sean_F said:
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
> >
> > That prediction doesn't match the anecdotes.
> >
> > Somebody is going to look pretty stupid pretty soon.
>
> I think it is consistent with them. A very good night for both TBP and the Lib Dems, even if Labour and Conservatives get off more lightly than expected.
It doesn't match the LibDems 'best result since 1910' ramping or the talk of Conservatives and Labour below 10%.0 -
> @isam said:
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @rcs1000 said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @Byronic said:
>
> >
>
> > > > If BXP are nine points up on UKIP 2014, then that's a stonking performance. Earthquake territory.
>
> t; That suggests 36% nationwide. That would be a great result for them.
> > Not too well I hope, I'm laying the 40+ band.
>
> >
>
> > I reckon many BXP voters have voted UKIP by mistake
>
>
>
> i did have a crafty £10 on UKIP winning at least one seat at 5/1 because of this , especially as when i wen to vote it was clearly drawing my eye to it being last on the paper where as TBP was a bit lost in the late middle
>
> I almost accidentally voted UKIP, and have heard of many people who did so
Mistake (and he does not make many) by Farage adding the word 'the' to the name of the party. People were looking for Brexit at the top end of the paper I think and then saw (easily) UKIP at the bottom0 -
Brexit party would be unlucky to only get 24 seats with 31ish% of the vote !0
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DittoAlastairMeeks said:I’d be surprised if that prediction is particularly close to the eventual result.
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In the French exit polls, the Greens are above both the previous major parties. An omen for the UK?0
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> @Casino_Royale said:
> > @Byronic said:
> > Here it is. Labour scrape second
> >
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
>
> Labour too high and Lib Dems too low.
>
> I think its going to be a dreadful night for Labour.
I think it'll be dreadful for both major parties. People are treating the whole thing as a second referendum where you have to choose Hard Remain or Hard Leave, and they are counting both Tories and Labour as "don't know", so to be ignored. My sense is that TBP are slightly under expectations and the LDs are well over, though probably not quite enough for first place.
Not sure how much it would carry over to a GE when the subjects are different, but certainly doesn't encourage the big parties to make a dash for the polls.0 -
> @AndreaParma_82 said:
> Exit poll/projection for France Televisions
>
> The figures for France Tele are
>
>
> Le Pen 23%
> Macron 22
> Greens 12.5
> Republicans 8.5%
> Socialists 7%
> Melenchon 7%
Could be nationalists win in UK, France and Italy then 3/5 of the largest western European nations and they could win in Poland too, the biggest nation in Eastern Europe0 -
I can feel it in my waters, PM Gove would make Lord Osborne Foreign Secretary.ydoethur said:
Eating a pineapple pizza a day wouldn't be sufficient penance for such a crime.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I'm going to vote for Gove if he makes the final two.
I think I'll get disowned and removed from a few WhatsApp groups though.
Plus Gove might be the only one who can sort out the Brexit stuff.
And just for you, think of all the Gove puns.0 -
Has BritainElects released its regional forecast in vote shares?0
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My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..0
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I wonder how The Independent Network will do in the East Midlands..
I'm hoping it's beaten Change UK and/or UKIP.0 -
I wonder if the media will even cover the Greens doing well or will they just obsess over the more far right parties seeing as they’re desperate to promote that narrative regardless .0
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> @another_richard said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
>
> That prediction doesn't match the anecdotes.
>
> Somebody is going to look pretty stupid pretty soon.
This is based on the campaign polls, so large bag of salt.0 -
> @RochdalePioneers said:
> My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
Stockton isn't the NE....0 -
> @RochdalePioneers said:
> My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
That bad for Labour ?0 -
> @RochdalePioneers said:
> My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > Exit poll/projection for France Televisions
> >
> > The figures for France Tele are
> >
> >
> > Le Pen 23%
> > Macron 22
> > Greens 12.5
> > Republicans 8.5%
> > Socialists 7%
> > Melenchon 7%
>
> Could be nationalists win in UK, France and Italy then 3/5 of the largest western European nations and they could win in Poland too, the biggest nation in Eastern Europe
Le Pen is going backwards if she gets 23%. The big result is the Greens.0 -
No chance CON 10
More likely CON 00 -
> @Pulpstar said:
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
>
> That bad for Labour ?
You do wonder how his will impact on the labour mps in these seats.
Regrets that they did not pass the WDA as we would have been out now0 -
> @RobD said:
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
>
> Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.
Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ?0 -
Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters.
That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year.0 -
Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.0
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0
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> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> >
> > That bad for Labour ?
>
> You do wonder how his will impact on the labour mps in these seats.
>
> Regrets that they did not pass the WDA as we would have been out now
They had to save their constituents from a hard Tory Brexit I think was the line.0 -
> @WhisperingOracle said:
> Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters.
>
> That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year.
The Greens, more likely.0 -
> @SouthamObserver said:
> Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.
Lets hope so0 -
The Danish exit poll confirming the collapse of the Dansk Folkeparti and a strong result for the centre-left and left parties.0
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> @Pulpstar said:
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> > >
> > > That bad for Labour ?
> >
> > You do wonder how his will impact on the labour mps in these seats.
> >
> > Regrets that they did not pass the WDA as we would have been out now
>
> They had to save their constituents from a hard Tory Brexit I think was the line.
Ironic as TM deal was not a hard brexit0 -
> @SouthamObserver said:
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters.
> >
> > That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year.
>
> The Greens, more likely.
Could be. If the young , last-minute registered voters, were under-represented in those campaign polls, we could see slightly or considerably better results for the LD's and Greens, or both.0 -
> @SouthamObserver said:
>
> The Greens, more likely.
It's a triple-whammy for Labour:
Young left-wingers voting Green, centrist dads voting LD, Lexit dinosaurs voting BXP.
And a double-whammy for the Tories:
Eurosceptics voting BXP, Europhiles voting LD.0 -
> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.
>
> Lets hope so
Certainly the exit polls in Greece, Germany and Austria were disappointing for our ultra right-leaning friends. Austria with some obvious reason.
Early doors yet as you say.0 -
> @isam said:
> Well he was sort of running 😳
>
> https://twitter.com/sketchaganda/status/1132239473587232768
i don't know why exactly but that is really funny ! Is it the bagels or loads of papers or the the breathless but clear 'good morning !' Not sure!0 -
0
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Being Gove, he would sort it out by saying May's red lines were not hard enough and therefore he would insist that the Channel had to be widened by 40 miles. He would ignore experts who pointed out this would be damaging and detonate a nuclear bomb in Ashford, which would achieve objective A while causing a whole load of far worse problems.TheScreamingEagles said:
I can feel it in my waters, PM Gove would make Lord Osborne Foreign Secretary.ydoethur said:
Eating a pineapple pizza a day wouldn't be sufficient penance for such a crime.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I'm going to vote for Gove if he makes the final two.
I think I'll get disowned and removed from a few WhatsApp groups though.
Plus Gove might be the only one who can sort out the Brexit stuff.
And just for you, think of all the Gove puns.
And I can't pun on the word that best describes Gove. OGH bans people for mis-spelling King Cnut's name.0 -
> @another_richard said:
> > @RobD said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> >
> > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.
>
> Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ?
No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton.
BXP
Lab
LD
would be my expectation0 -
> @Byronic said:
> More and better rumours
>
> https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
Hmm - just the kind of thing I thought.0 -
Until Westminster, the media, the general public and nearly all the Tory leavers including those on this site, actually learn and understand how the EU Council, Commission and Parliament works then the drivel of altering any agreement will continue to be promulgated as "truth". The Commission and Council have agreed what the UK leaving agreement will be, it will not change, no matter what idiot the Tories put up as Leader and PM.0
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> @nico67 said:
> I wonder if the media will even cover the Greens doing well or will they just obsess over the more far right parties seeing as they’re desperate to promote that narrative regardless .
Well there's the Lib Dems doing well and Farage doing well and Labour/Tories doing badly to talk about first.
If the Greens were to get more votes than Farage/Lib Dems then they'd be more talked about.0 -
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> @eek said:
>
> No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton.
>
> BXP
> Lab
> LD
>
> would be my expectation
Labour got two seats on 36.5% last time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_England_(European_Parliament_constituency)0 -
> @eek said:
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> > >
> > > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.
> >
> > Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ?
>
> No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton.
>
> BXP
> Lab
> LD
>
> would be my expectation
I was referring to TBP winning all three NE seats.
I don't think its going to happen.0 -
PSOE wins in Spain by a big margin, according to exit polls.0
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> @Byronic said:
> More and better rumours
>
> https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
Remain split between Lib-Dem and Green with Leave coalescing around Brexit.
That's what the polls predicted...0 -
> @Byronic said:
> More and better rumours
>
> https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
We're going to be running out of space in prison at this rate.
0 -
> @RobD said:
> BXP GAIN Orkney and Shetland?
It would be a major surprise since O&S isn't a Euro constituency.0 -
> @another_richard said:
> > @eek said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> > > >
> > > > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.
> > >
> > > Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ?
> >
> > No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton.
> >
> > BXP
> > Lab
> > LD
> >
> > would be my expectation
>
> I was referring to TBP winning all three NE seats.
>
> I don't think its going to happen.
They would need 55% of the vote - that definitely won't happen across the region.0 -
> @Theuniondivvie said:
> > @RobD said:
> > BXP GAIN Orkney and Shetland?
>
>
> It would be a major surprise since O&S isn't a Euro constituency.
I know that, you know that, but it turns out a popular twitter account that prides itself on election forecasts doesn't.0 -
> @Byronic said:
> More and better rumours
>
> https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
If TBP have done that well in an affluent district which was only marginally Leave.0 -
Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014.Byronic said:More and better rumours
0 -
For quite possibly the n billionth time, Corbyn lost in 2017...WhisperingOracle said:Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters.
That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year.
[Sorry, it's a bugbear of mine. I have so many tawdry quirks at this point, I might as well open a tawdry quirk shop...
] 0 -
> @brokenwheel said:
> More and better rumours
> https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192
>
>
>
> Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014.
20% up on UKIP in 2014? 0 -
> @viewcode said:
> Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters.
>
>
>
> That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year.
>
> For quite possibly the n billionth time, Corbyn lost in 2017...
>
> [Sorry, it's a bugbear of mine. I have so many tawdry quirks at this point, I might as well open a tawdry quirk shop... ]
He lost, but did come very close and destroy a 20 point tory lead.0 -
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> @another_richard said:
> > @Byronic said:
> > More and better rumours
> >
> > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
>
> If TBP have done that well in an affluent district which was only marginally Leave.
> @another_richard said:
> > @Byronic said:
> > More and better rumours
> >
> > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
>
> If TBP have done that well in an affluent district which was only marginally Leave.
Have been saying for days, almost every loyal, always vote Tory that I know has voted TBP.0 -
> @eek said:
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @eek said:
> > > > @another_richard said:
> > > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> > > > >
> > > > > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.
> > > >
> > > > Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ?
> > >
> > > No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton.
> > >
> > > BXP
> > > Lab
> > > LD
> > >
> > > would be my expectation
> >
> > I was referring to TBP winning all three NE seats.
> >
> > I don't think its going to happen.
>
> They would need 55% of the vote - that definitely won't happen across the region.
I don't think so either but it would be in line with the Cheshire East anecdote.0 -
0
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0
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> @SouthamObserver said:
> Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.
Oh no, the nationalist right only win in France, Italy and the populist right in the UK. 3/4 of the largest European nations0 -
> @AndreaParma_82 said:
> French count to be followed here
>
> https://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/europeennes-2019/FE.html
Why is Marine Le Pen so low on her party's list?0 -
Am I right in thinking the only non-mayoral election Corbynite Labour has actually won is the Welsh Assembly election of 2016?viewcode said:
For quite possibly the n billionth time, Corbyn lost in 2017...WhisperingOracle said:Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters.
That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year.
[Sorry, it's a bugbear of mine. I have so many tawdry quirks at this point, I might as well open a tawdry quirk shop... ]0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> I've heard similar
>
> https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617
Oh, there is not enough popcorn in the world for this.......0 -
> @dixiedean said:
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.
> >
> > Lets hope so
>
> Certainly the exit polls in Greece, Germany and Austria were disappointing for our ultra right-leaning friends. Austria with some obvious reason.
> Early doors yet as you say.
Kurz won easily in Austria and was in coalition with the far right until last week0 -
The Dutch Party for a referendum there did worse than expected getting just 11% of the votes .
Still waiting for the alleged stampede by other EU countries to the exit door which was forecast by Farage and co !0 -
Maybe she doesn't want to have to work with a load of foreigners?RobD said:> @AndreaParma_82 said:
> French count to be followed here
>
> https://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/europeennes-2019/FE.html
Why is Marine Le Pen so low on her party's list?2 -
Anyhoo, I was visiting rellies over the weekend and doing useful social things like helping my rellies garden, despite them having four working limbs and ability to afford a gardener. I took revenge by making them watch the season finale of season 2 of ST:Discovery twice, so balance was restored,...
But as a result of this distraction I forgot that yesterday was International Towel Day. More info here.
1 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> I've heard similar
>
> https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617
In tonight's program: can Labour rival the complete Tory collapse? Find out at 100 -
Reposting my prediction from the other day. I clearly got the turnout very wrong, overestimating people's interest, but the LD rumours make me feel a bit better about my number for them though. Only a few hours to go until we find out.
30% Brexit
22% Lib Dem
17% Lab
12% Con
9% Green
3% ChUK
2% UKIP
5% Other
Turnout around 45%
http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2327180/#Comment_2327180
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Cheshire East in 2014 was
Con 33
UKIP 30
Lab 18
Greens 7
LD 6
2009
Con 36
UKIP 16
LD 14
Lab 11
Green 70 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> I've heard similar
>
> https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617
Any details ?0 -
Slumming it in Brighton this weekend
Not sure how late I can stay up, I'm sharing a hotel room with my mum and my brother who are both early sleepers!
Now you know why I was whinging about the election count not being on Thursday!0 -
Regarding Cheshire east at the last EU elections it was close between UKIP and the Tories roughly 30% each with Labour in third with 18% .
If the BP has taken 50% that’s not a surprise .0 -
I still think CON and LAB will go sub 10% (vote)0
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Please let one of them be Islington North...or better still, Hayes and Harlington so the real leader of Labour feels some heat.another_richard said:0 -
> @RobD said:
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > More and better rumours
> > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192
> >
> >
> >
> > Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014.
>
> 20% up on UKIP in 2014?
That would imply that TBP are polling well over 40% nationally, which I find hard to believe.0 -
1
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> @ydoethur said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > I've heard similar
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617
>
>
>
>
>
> Any details ?
>
> Please let one of them be Islington North...or better still, Hayes and Harlington so the real leader of Labour feels some heat.
Why not both0 -
> @RochdalePioneers said:
> My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
Shitting feck. If Labour can't win a seat in the NE we are in for a total humiliation.0 -
Checks clock... still 2 hours to go...0
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> @eek said:
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
>
> Stockton isn't the NE....
We are reasonably calm as a council area - the last remaining Labour council on Teesside. If it's this bad here I can only imagine the BXP piles in Boro or Pool or Sunderland. And yes, some seats will lean LD like Durham or Newcastle or up in Northumbria. But overall? I can see Labour 3rd across the region quite comfortably0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> I've heard similar
>
> https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617<;
=====
Bloody Nora0 -
> @Sean_F said:
> > @RobD said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > More and better rumours
> > > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014.
> >
> > 20% up on UKIP in 2014?
>
> That would imply that TBP are polling well over 40% nationally, which I find hard to believe.
It could be that the Tories have been utterly destroyed in seats like this, though, while holding on to some more affluent voters in the country and places like the south.0 -
My goodness, all this hysteria over who wins and loses, as if it actually means a toss. The UK MEP's of whatever party means absolutely nothing. At worst, they will be removed at the 31st October, at best they will be joining up in some non-descript grouping and be mostly ignored until the next EU election. The UK is now a planetary joke.0
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> @John_McLean said:
> My goodness, all this hysteria over who wins and loses, as if it actually means a toss. The UK MEP's of whatever party means absolutely nothing. At worst, they will be removed at the 31st October, at best they will be joining up in some non-descript grouping and be mostly ignored until the next EU election. The UK is now a planetary joke.
I don't think this election has much to do with the MEPs, to be honest.0 -
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Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise.
Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> @RobC said:
>
> The Tories would be delighted at that. Hannan was predicting zero seats drama queen that he is. Probably somewhere between the two.
>
>
>
> +++++++++++++++++
>
>
>
> The Hannan tweet was a bit embarassing given 6.5% would almost certainly be enough to guarantee a seat in the SE.
>
> Tonight might feature a thread headlined 'Dan Hannan, wrong again, the Tory Sion Simon when it comes to predictions'
Sion Simon made a prediction?0 -
If Cheshire East shows the Lib Dems and Greens fighting for second and third those votes are coming mainly from Labour with much less going to the BP from them .0
This discussion has been closed.