> @rcs1000 said: > @RobD said: > BXP GAIN Orkney and Shetland? > > +++++++++ > > It was the area that voted most heavily against EU accession in 1974. > >
Strong fishing area who hate the EU with a passion
> @Sean_F said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212 > > > > That prediction doesn't match the anecdotes. > > > > Somebody is going to look pretty stupid pretty soon. > > I think it is consistent with them. A very good night for both TBP and the Lib Dems, even if Labour and Conservatives get off more lightly than expected.
It doesn't match the LibDems 'best result since 1910' ramping or the talk of Conservatives and Labour below 10%.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > > @rcs1000 said: > > > > > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > > > > If BXP are nine points up on UKIP 2014, then that's a stonking performance. Earthquake territory. > > t; That suggests 36% nationwide. That would be a great result for them. > > Not too well I hope, I'm laying the 40+ band. > > > > > > I reckon many BXP voters have voted UKIP by mistake > > > > i did have a crafty £10 on UKIP winning at least one seat at 5/1 because of this , especially as when i wen to vote it was clearly drawing my eye to it being last on the paper where as TBP was a bit lost in the late middle > > I almost accidentally voted UKIP, and have heard of many people who did so
Mistake (and he does not make many) by Farage adding the word 'the' to the name of the party. People were looking for Brexit at the top end of the paper I think and then saw (easily) UKIP at the bottom
I think it'll be dreadful for both major parties. People are treating the whole thing as a second referendum where you have to choose Hard Remain or Hard Leave, and they are counting both Tories and Labour as "don't know", so to be ignored. My sense is that TBP are slightly under expectations and the LDs are well over, though probably not quite enough for first place.
Not sure how much it would carry over to a GE when the subjects are different, but certainly doesn't encourage the big parties to make a dash for the polls.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > Exit poll/projection for France Televisions > > The figures for France Tele are > > > Le Pen 23% > Macron 22 > Greens 12.5 > Republicans 8.5% > Socialists 7% > Melenchon 7%
Could be nationalists win in UK, France and Italy then 3/5 of the largest western European nations and they could win in Poland too, the biggest nation in Eastern Europe
I wonder if the media will even cover the Greens doing well or will they just obsess over the more far right parties seeing as they’re desperate to promote that narrative regardless .
> @HYUFD said: > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > Exit poll/projection for France Televisions > > > > The figures for France Tele are > > > > > > Le Pen 23% > > Macron 22 > > Greens 12.5 > > Republicans 8.5% > > Socialists 7% > > Melenchon 7% > > Could be nationalists win in UK, France and Italy then 3/5 of the largest western European nations and they could win in Poland too, the biggest nation in Eastern Europe
Le Pen is going backwards if she gets 23%. The big result is the Greens.
Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky.. > > > > That bad for Labour ? > > You do wonder how his will impact on the labour mps in these seats. > > Regrets that they did not pass the WDA as we would have been out now
They had to save their constituents from a hard Tory Brexit I think was the line.
> @WhisperingOracle said: > Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters. > > That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year.
> @SouthamObserver said: > Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky.. > > > > > > That bad for Labour ? > > > > You do wonder how his will impact on the labour mps in these seats. > > > > Regrets that they did not pass the WDA as we would have been out now > > They had to save their constituents from a hard Tory Brexit I think was the line.
> @SouthamObserver said: > > @WhisperingOracle said: > > Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters. > > > > That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year. > > The Greens, more likely.
Could be. If the young , last-minute registered voters, were under-represented in those campaign polls, we could see slightly or considerably better results for the LD's and Greens, or both.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @SouthamObserver said: > > Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be. > > Lets hope so
Certainly the exit polls in Greece, Germany and Austria were disappointing for our ultra right-leaning friends. Austria with some obvious reason. Early doors yet as you say.
I think I'm going to vote for Gove if he makes the final two.
I think I'll get disowned and removed from a few WhatsApp groups though.
Eating a pineapple pizza a day wouldn't be sufficient penance for such a crime.
I can feel it in my waters, PM Gove would make Lord Osborne Foreign Secretary.
Plus Gove might be the only one who can sort out the Brexit stuff.
And just for you, think of all the Gove puns.
Being Gove, he would sort it out by saying May's red lines were not hard enough and therefore he would insist that the Channel had to be widened by 40 miles. He would ignore experts who pointed out this would be damaging and detonate a nuclear bomb in Ashford, which would achieve objective A while causing a whole load of far worse problems.
And I can't pun on the word that best describes Gove. OGH bans people for mis-spelling King Cnut's name.
> @another_richard said: > > @RobD said: > > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky.. > > > > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share. > > Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ?
No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton.
Until Westminster, the media, the general public and nearly all the Tory leavers including those on this site, actually learn and understand how the EU Council, Commission and Parliament works then the drivel of altering any agreement will continue to be promulgated as "truth". The Commission and Council have agreed what the UK leaving agreement will be, it will not change, no matter what idiot the Tories put up as Leader and PM.
> @nico67 said: > I wonder if the media will even cover the Greens doing well or will they just obsess over the more far right parties seeing as they’re desperate to promote that narrative regardless .
Well there's the Lib Dems doing well and Farage doing well and Labour/Tories doing badly to talk about first.
If the Greens were to get more votes than Farage/Lib Dems then they'd be more talked about.
> @eek said: > > No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton. > > BXP > Lab > LD > > would be my expectation
> @eek said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @RobD said: > > > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky.. > > > > > > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share. > > > > Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ? > > No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton. > > BXP > Lab > LD > > would be my expectation
I was referring to TBP winning all three NE seats.
Brexit party would be unlucky to only get 24 seats with 31ish% of the vote !
It's 31% of the GB vote, not UK vote. GB has 70 seats. 31% of 70 is 21.7 seats. If true, they overperformed not underperformed in terms of seat allocation.
> @another_richard said: > > @eek said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > @RobD said: > > > > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky.. > > > > > > > > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share. > > > > > > Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ? > > > > No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton. > > > > BXP > > Lab > > LD > > > > would be my expectation > > I was referring to TBP winning all three NE seats. > > I don't think its going to happen.
They would need 55% of the vote - that definitely won't happen across the region.
> @viewcode said: > Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters. > > > > That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year. > > For quite possibly the n billionth time, Corbyn lost in 2017... > > [Sorry, it's a bugbear of mine. I have so many tawdry quirks at this point, I might as well open a tawdry quirk shop... ]
He lost, but did come very close and destroy a 20 point tory lead.
> @eek said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @eek said: > > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > @RobD said: > > > > > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > > > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky.. > > > > > > > > > > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share. > > > > > > > > Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ? > > > > > > No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton. > > > > > > BXP > > > Lab > > > LD > > > > > > would be my expectation > > > > I was referring to TBP winning all three NE seats. > > > > I don't think its going to happen. > > They would need 55% of the vote - that definitely won't happen across the region.
I don't think so either but it would be in line with the Cheshire East anecdote.
> @SouthamObserver said: > Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.
Oh no, the nationalist right only win in France, Italy and the populist right in the UK. 3/4 of the largest European nations
> @dixiedean said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @SouthamObserver said: > > > Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be. > > > > Lets hope so > > Certainly the exit polls in Greece, Germany and Austria were disappointing for our ultra right-leaning friends. Austria with some obvious reason. > Early doors yet as you say.
Kurz won easily in Austria and was in coalition with the far right until last week
Anyhoo, I was visiting rellies over the weekend and doing useful social things like helping my rellies garden, despite them having four working limbs and ability to afford a gardener. I took revenge by making them watch the season finale of season 2 of ST:Discovery twice, so balance was restored,...
But as a result of this distraction I forgot that yesterday was International Towel Day. More info here.
Reposting my prediction from the other day. I clearly got the turnout very wrong, overestimating people's interest, but the LD rumours make me feel a bit better about my number for them though. Only a few hours to go until we find out.
30% Brexit 22% Lib Dem 17% Lab 12% Con 9% Green 3% ChUK 2% UKIP 5% Other Turnout around 45%
> @nico67 said: > Regarding Cheshire east at the last EU elections it was close between UKIP and the Tories roughly 30% each with Labour in third with 18% . > > If the BP has taken 50% that’s not a surprise .
Which would be enough to grab all three seats in the region. Ah, PR.
> @eek said: > > @RochdalePioneers said: > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky.. > > Stockton isn't the NE....
We are reasonably calm as a council area - the last remaining Labour council on Teesside. If it's this bad here I can only imagine the BXP piles in Boro or Pool or Sunderland. And yes, some seats will lean LD like Durham or Newcastle or up in Northumbria. But overall? I can see Labour 3rd across the region quite comfortably
> @Sean_F said: > > @RobD said: > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > More and better rumours > > > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192 > > > > > > > > > > > > Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014. > > > > 20% up on UKIP in 2014? > > That would imply that TBP are polling well over 40% nationally, which I find hard to believe.
It could be that the Tories have been utterly destroyed in seats like this, though, while holding on to some more affluent voters in the country and places like the south.
My goodness, all this hysteria over who wins and loses, as if it actually means a toss. The UK MEP's of whatever party means absolutely nothing. At worst, they will be removed at the 31st October, at best they will be joining up in some non-descript grouping and be mostly ignored until the next EU election. The UK is now a planetary joke.
> @John_McLean said: > My goodness, all this hysteria over who wins and loses, as if it actually means a toss. The UK MEP's of whatever party means absolutely nothing. At worst, they will be removed at the 31st October, at best they will be joining up in some non-descript grouping and be mostly ignored until the next EU election. The UK is now a planetary joke.
I don't think this election has much to do with the MEPs, to be honest.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > @RobC said: > > The Tories would be delighted at that. Hannan was predicting zero seats drama queen that he is. Probably somewhere between the two. > > > > +++++++++++++++++ > > > > The Hannan tweet was a bit embarassing given 6.5% would almost certainly be enough to guarantee a seat in the SE. > > Tonight might feature a thread headlined 'Dan Hannan, wrong again, the Tory Sion Simon when it comes to predictions'
Anecdata for the count here in Abingdon, Oxfordshire - neck and neck between BXP and LD...but a lot of LD momentum with Layla in this neck of the woods, so probably no surprise.
Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...
If Cheshire East shows the Lib Dems and Greens fighting for second and third those votes are coming mainly from Labour with much less going to the BP from them .
Comments
Crudely it looks as though BXP have stormed the North, and LD the South
> @RobD said:
> BXP GAIN Orkney and Shetland?
>
> +++++++++
>
> It was the area that voted most heavily against EU accession in 1974.
>
>
Strong fishing area who hate the EU with a passion
It’s not like the polls are even close by normal standards . The big issue is the Labour v Lib Dem vote .
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
> >
> > That prediction doesn't match the anecdotes.
> >
> > Somebody is going to look pretty stupid pretty soon.
>
> I think it is consistent with them. A very good night for both TBP and the Lib Dems, even if Labour and Conservatives get off more lightly than expected.
It doesn't match the LibDems 'best result since 1910' ramping or the talk of Conservatives and Labour below 10%.
> > @isam said:
>
> > > @rcs1000 said:
>
> >
>
> > > > @Byronic said:
>
> >
>
> > > > If BXP are nine points up on UKIP 2014, then that's a stonking performance. Earthquake territory.
>
> t; That suggests 36% nationwide. That would be a great result for them.
> > Not too well I hope, I'm laying the 40+ band.
>
> >
>
> > I reckon many BXP voters have voted UKIP by mistake
>
>
>
> i did have a crafty £10 on UKIP winning at least one seat at 5/1 because of this , especially as when i wen to vote it was clearly drawing my eye to it being last on the paper where as TBP was a bit lost in the late middle
>
> I almost accidentally voted UKIP, and have heard of many people who did so
Mistake (and he does not make many) by Farage adding the word 'the' to the name of the party. People were looking for Brexit at the top end of the paper I think and then saw (easily) UKIP at the bottom
> > @Byronic said:
> > Here it is. Labour scrape second
> >
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
>
> Labour too high and Lib Dems too low.
>
> I think its going to be a dreadful night for Labour.
I think it'll be dreadful for both major parties. People are treating the whole thing as a second referendum where you have to choose Hard Remain or Hard Leave, and they are counting both Tories and Labour as "don't know", so to be ignored. My sense is that TBP are slightly under expectations and the LDs are well over, though probably not quite enough for first place.
Not sure how much it would carry over to a GE when the subjects are different, but certainly doesn't encourage the big parties to make a dash for the polls.
> Exit poll/projection for France Televisions
>
> The figures for France Tele are
>
>
> Le Pen 23%
> Macron 22
> Greens 12.5
> Republicans 8.5%
> Socialists 7%
> Melenchon 7%
Could be nationalists win in UK, France and Italy then 3/5 of the largest western European nations and they could win in Poland too, the biggest nation in Eastern Europe
Plus Gove might be the only one who can sort out the Brexit stuff.
And just for you, think of all the Gove puns.
I'm hoping it's beaten Change UK and/or UKIP.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
>
> That prediction doesn't match the anecdotes.
>
> Somebody is going to look pretty stupid pretty soon.
This is based on the campaign polls, so large bag of salt.
> My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
Stockton isn't the NE....
> My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
That bad for Labour ?
> My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > Exit poll/projection for France Televisions
> >
> > The figures for France Tele are
> >
> >
> > Le Pen 23%
> > Macron 22
> > Greens 12.5
> > Republicans 8.5%
> > Socialists 7%
> > Melenchon 7%
>
> Could be nationalists win in UK, France and Italy then 3/5 of the largest western European nations and they could win in Poland too, the biggest nation in Eastern Europe
Le Pen is going backwards if she gets 23%. The big result is the Greens.
More likely CON 0
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
>
> That bad for Labour ?
You do wonder how his will impact on the labour mps in these seats.
Regrets that they did not pass the WDA as we would have been out now
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
>
> Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.
Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ?
That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year.
https://twitter.com/sketchaganda/status/1132239473587232768?s=21
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> >
> > That bad for Labour ?
>
> You do wonder how his will impact on the labour mps in these seats.
>
> Regrets that they did not pass the WDA as we would have been out now
They had to save their constituents from a hard Tory Brexit I think was the line.
> Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters.
>
> That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year.
The Greens, more likely.
> Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.
Lets hope so
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> > >
> > > That bad for Labour ?
> >
> > You do wonder how his will impact on the labour mps in these seats.
> >
> > Regrets that they did not pass the WDA as we would have been out now
>
> They had to save their constituents from a hard Tory Brexit I think was the line.
Ironic as TM deal was not a hard brexit
> > @WhisperingOracle said:
> > Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters.
> >
> > That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year.
>
> The Greens, more likely.
Could be. If the young , last-minute registered voters, were under-represented in those campaign polls, we could see slightly or considerably better results for the LD's and Greens, or both.
>
> The Greens, more likely.
It's a triple-whammy for Labour:
Young left-wingers voting Green, centrist dads voting LD, Lexit dinosaurs voting BXP.
And a double-whammy for the Tories:
Eurosceptics voting BXP, Europhiles voting LD.
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.
>
> Lets hope so
Certainly the exit polls in Greece, Germany and Austria were disappointing for our ultra right-leaning friends. Austria with some obvious reason.
Early doors yet as you say.
> Well he was sort of running 😳
>
> https://twitter.com/sketchaganda/status/1132239473587232768
i don't know why exactly but that is really funny ! Is it the bagels or loads of papers or the the breathless but clear 'good morning !' Not sure!
https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
And I can't pun on the word that best describes Gove. OGH bans people for mis-spelling King Cnut's name.
> No chance CON 10
>
> More likely CON 0
When will we be seeing the Ave It Euro19 exit poll?
> > @RobD said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> >
> > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.
>
> Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ?
No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton.
BXP
Lab
LD
would be my expectation
> More and better rumours
>
> https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
Hmm - just the kind of thing I thought.
> I wonder if the media will even cover the Greens doing well or will they just obsess over the more far right parties seeing as they’re desperate to promote that narrative regardless .
Well there's the Lib Dems doing well and Farage doing well and Labour/Tories doing badly to talk about first.
If the Greens were to get more votes than Farage/Lib Dems then they'd be more talked about.
>
> No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton.
>
> BXP
> Lab
> LD
>
> would be my expectation
Labour got two seats on 36.5% last time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_England_(European_Parliament_constituency)
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> > >
> > > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.
> >
> > Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ?
>
> No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton.
>
> BXP
> Lab
> LD
>
> would be my expectation
I was referring to TBP winning all three NE seats.
I don't think its going to happen.
> No chance CON 10
>
> More likely CON 0
Con 1 - they should get a seat in the South East - they only need 6% or so..
> More and better rumours
>
> https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
Remain split between Lib-Dem and Green with Leave coalescing around Brexit.
That's what the polls predicted...
> More and better rumours
>
> https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
We're going to be running out of space in prison at this rate.
> BXP GAIN Orkney and Shetland?
It would be a major surprise since O&S isn't a Euro constituency.
> > @eek said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> > > >
> > > > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.
> > >
> > > Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ?
> >
> > No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton.
> >
> > BXP
> > Lab
> > LD
> >
> > would be my expectation
>
> I was referring to TBP winning all three NE seats.
>
> I don't think its going to happen.
They would need 55% of the vote - that definitely won't happen across the region.
> > @RobD said:
> > BXP GAIN Orkney and Shetland?
>
>
> It would be a major surprise since O&S isn't a Euro constituency.
I know that, you know that, but it turns out a popular twitter account that prides itself on election forecasts doesn't.
> More and better rumours
>
> https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
If TBP have done that well in an affluent district which was only marginally Leave.
[Sorry, it's a bugbear of mine. I have so many tawdry quirks at this point, I might as well open a tawdry quirk shop...
> More and better rumours
> https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192
>
>
>
> Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014.
20% up on UKIP in 2014?
> Anecdotal evidence I've heard in two different parts of the country is a very good turnout of young voters.
>
>
>
> That which was so good for Corbyn in 2017 now looks good for the LD's this year.
>
> For quite possibly the n billionth time, Corbyn lost in 2017...
>
> [Sorry, it's a bugbear of mine. I have so many tawdry quirks at this point, I might as well open a tawdry quirk shop...
He lost, but did come very close and destroy a 20 point tory lead.
> > @Byronic said:
> > More and better rumours
> >
> > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
>
> If TBP have done that well in an affluent district which was only marginally Leave.
> @another_richard said:
> > @Byronic said:
> > More and better rumours
> >
> > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192?s=21
>
> If TBP have done that well in an affluent district which was only marginally Leave.
Have been saying for days, almost every loyal, always vote Tory that I know has voted TBP.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @eek said:
> > > > @another_richard said:
> > > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > > > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
> > > > >
> > > > > Three BXP surely isn't possible? That'd require a huge share.
> > > >
> > > > Wouldn't they need their share of the vote to be more than four times the number of the second place party ?
> > >
> > > No - they need something like 38% of the vote to win 2 seats - I suspect they won't get that amount as Tyne & Wear / Northumberland will vote very differently to Stockton.
> > >
> > > BXP
> > > Lab
> > > LD
> > >
> > > would be my expectation
> >
> > I was referring to TBP winning all three NE seats.
> >
> > I don't think its going to happen.
>
> They would need 55% of the vote - that definitely won't happen across the region.
I don't think so either but it would be in line with the Cheshire East anecdote.
https://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/europeennes-2019/FE.html
https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617
> Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.
Oh no, the nationalist right only win in France, Italy and the populist right in the UK. 3/4 of the largest European nations
> French count to be followed here
>
> https://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/europeennes-2019/FE.html
Why is Marine Le Pen so low on her party's list?
> I've heard similar
>
> https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617
Oh, there is not enough popcorn in the world for this.......
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > Early days yet - and I don’t want to tempt fate - but the far right populist surge across Europe so eagerly anticipated in the UK media does not seem to be as strong or as widespread as we’d been told it would be.
> >
> > Lets hope so
>
> Certainly the exit polls in Greece, Germany and Austria were disappointing for our ultra right-leaning friends. Austria with some obvious reason.
> Early doors yet as you say.
Kurz won easily in Austria and was in coalition with the far right until last week
Still waiting for the alleged stampede by other EU countries to the exit door which was forecast by Farage and co !
But as a result of this distraction I forgot that yesterday was International Towel Day. More info here.
> I've heard similar
>
> https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617
In tonight's program: can Labour rival the complete Tory collapse? Find out at 10
30% Brexit
22% Lib Dem
17% Lab
12% Con
9% Green
3% ChUK
2% UKIP
5% Other
Turnout around 45%
http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2327180/#Comment_2327180
Con 33
UKIP 30
Lab 18
Greens 7
LD 6
2009
Con 36
UKIP 16
LD 14
Lab 11
Green 7
> I've heard similar
>
> https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617
Any details ?
Not sure how late I can stay up, I'm sharing a hotel room with my mum and my brother who are both early sleepers!
Now you know why I was whinging about the election count not being on Thursday!
If the BP has taken 50% that’s not a surprise .
> Regarding Cheshire east at the last EU elections it was close between UKIP and the Tories roughly 30% each with Labour in third with 18% .
>
> If the BP has taken 50% that’s not a surprise .
Which would be enough to grab all three seats in the region. Ah, PR.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > More and better rumours
> > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192
> >
> >
> >
> > Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014.
>
> 20% up on UKIP in 2014?
That would imply that TBP are polling well over 40% nationally, which I find hard to believe.
> I still think CON and LAB will go sub 10% (vote)
>
>
Combined?
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > I've heard similar
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617
>
>
>
>
>
> Any details ?
>
> Please let one of them be Islington North...or better still, Hayes and Harlington so the real leader of Labour feels some heat.
Why not both
> My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
Shitting feck. If Labour can't win a seat in the NE we are in for a total humiliation.
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > My prediction for the NE: BXP, BXP, LD. If we're lucky..
>
> Stockton isn't the NE....
We are reasonably calm as a council area - the last remaining Labour council on Teesside. If it's this bad here I can only imagine the BXP piles in Boro or Pool or Sunderland. And yes, some seats will lean LD like Durham or Newcastle or up in Northumbria. But overall? I can see Labour 3rd across the region quite comfortably
> That would imply that TBP are polling well over 40% nationally, which I find hard to believe.
If you were to go by twitter, the Brexit party should be around 10% or so !
> I've heard similar
>
> https://twitter.com/NicolaRBartlett/status/1132715298761711617<;
=====
Bloody Nora
> > @RobD said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > More and better rumours
> > > https://twitter.com/antcritchley/status/1132711107997704192
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Cons 33%, UKIP 30% and Labour 18% in 2014.
> >
> > 20% up on UKIP in 2014?
>
> That would imply that TBP are polling well over 40% nationally, which I find hard to believe.
It could be that the Tories have been utterly destroyed in seats like this, though, while holding on to some more affluent voters in the country and places like the south.
> My goodness, all this hysteria over who wins and loses, as if it actually means a toss. The UK MEP's of whatever party means absolutely nothing. At worst, they will be removed at the 31st October, at best they will be joining up in some non-descript grouping and be mostly ignored until the next EU election. The UK is now a planetary joke.
I don't think this election has much to do with the MEPs, to be honest.
> @RobC said:
>
> The Tories would be delighted at that. Hannan was predicting zero seats drama queen that he is. Probably somewhere between the two.
>
>
>
> +++++++++++++++++
>
>
>
> The Hannan tweet was a bit embarassing given 6.5% would almost certainly be enough to guarantee a seat in the SE.
>
> Tonight might feature a thread headlined 'Dan Hannan, wrong again, the Tory Sion Simon when it comes to predictions'
Sion Simon made a prediction?
Not sure about turnout but the count finished some time ago and they have to hang around until 10pm...