> @Nigelb said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > Has anyone got anything nice in the fridge to drink while the results come in? > > > > I’m hoping to open a nice bottle of schadenfreude. > > Given the state of UK politics, I’m thinking a bottle of meths. > >
I got wasted last night (not on meths) and a royal rocket from my wife this morning consequently, so I'll be lucky to get away with an ovaltine tonight.
You'd expect Labour to do badly in Islington in these circumstances because it was so pro-Remain. The question is how to they do in places like Brent, Hounslow and Croydon which were more Brexity.
I'm not sure how this fits with the "populist tide reversed" narrative. It seems to me a very mixed bag. Some doing unexpectedly badly, some doing unexpectedly well.
I am no fan of Le Pen. It's just that I also no fan of Macron. Something about him just..... grates. And he is clearly an Anglophobe.
PS Macron's TV guy looks very much like Steve Bannon, which is confusing (unless I am deeply confused and that is his opponent; my French is rusty*)
> @AndyJS said: > I'm sure they used to start counting the votes at 10pm for Euro elections, and it took another 3 or 4 hours for the results to start coming in.
A reminder that the BBC is following UK law on reporting any exit polls or projections that might exist out there.
Under UK law, there are restrictions about what broadcasters can say while polls are open.
The European Parliament's own website is providing up-to-date exit polls from EU member states as well as projecting what they mean for the make-up of the Parliament."
So to comply with their interpretation of EU law the UK has banned exit polls or projections whilst the European Parliament itself is happily posting both.
The operative words are “following UK law”.
As so often, the constraints ascribed to the EU appear to be self-imposed.
It's a useful reminder that our politicians are so brain dead and moronic that they'll draw the conclusions they want to tonight regardless of the results.
Very unfair comment. What have brain-dead morons ever done to you that they deserve being compared to Adonis?
> > > It's because us centre-righties expected to be alone in our shame and humiliation, now we get to share it with you. Hi there! > > Why would you want to be in the same bracket as a bunch of Corbynistas? I would have thought anything up to and including a cattle prod in the balls would be preferable.<
++++++
I don't think you grasp my point, but, to be fair, it wasn't the Point of the Century
Ice Hockey World Championship final: still 10 mins to play and Finland leads Canada 2-1. All the Canadians play in the NHL, the Finns are all rookies at the international level.
> @Nigelb said: > I do find this amusing from the BBC website > > > > > > "Why isn't the BBC carrying exit polls? > > > > A reminder that the BBC is following UK law on reporting any exit polls or projections that might exist out there. > > > > Under UK law, there are restrictions about what broadcasters can say while polls are open. > > > > The European Parliament's own website is providing up-to-date exit polls from EU member states as well as projecting what they mean for the make-up of the Parliament." > > > > So to comply with their interpretation of EU law the UK has banned exit polls or projections whilst the European Parliament itself is happily posting both. > > The operative words are “following UK law”. > > As so often, the constraints ascribed to the EU appear to be self-imposed.
Oh exactly. That is why I say 'their interpretation of EU law'.
> @ydoethur said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1132728085764354048 > > > > > > > > Heart of stone, etc. > > > > It's a useful reminder that our politicians are so brain dead and moronic that they'll draw the conclusions they want to tonight regardless of the results. > > Very unfair comment. What have brain-dead morons ever done to you that they deserve being compared to Adonis?
@RobD said: I'm going to hazard a guess.... it will not change things one iota. The bureaucrats will continue with their path towards ever closer union.
+++++++++++
Well, the hardline Eurofederalists (ALDE + G) have probably had a better night in terms of gains than the Eurosceptics (ECR + EFDD + GUE + ENF), which is not what I expected.
I think the issue that the West is having is that it is becoming increasing polarised: either you're a hardcore internationalist or a hardcore nationalist, and the soft and fuzzy center is weakening.
> @AnneJGP said: > > @StuartDickson said: > > > Latest prognosis European Parliament: > > > EPP 177 (-39) > > > S&D 147 (-40) > > > ALDE 101 (+32) > > > G/EFA 69 (+17) > > > ECR 59 (-18) > > > ENF 57 (+21) > > > EFDD 56 (+14) > > > GUE/NGL 42 (-10) > > > NI 8 (-12) > > > Others 35 (+35) Brexit Party?? > > > > Brexit Party is in EFDD. > > > Any idea how this sort of result would change the direction of the EU from its current make-up? > > Good evening, everyone.
Hello Anne. ~It's a swing to the right (ENF/EFDD+35, S&D/GUE-50 but the centrists are doing well (ALDE/EFA+49) and the Christian Democrats poorly (-39), and overall the ultra-nationalists will be disappointed. As before, nothing much can be done without the Christian Democrats, who are by and large moderate pro-EU conservatives like Merkel.
> @ydoethur said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > Labour are in for a very bad one. > > > > > > Tory posters seemingly excited by that like old times, whilst entirely missing the point. < > > > > +++++ > > > > It's because us centre-righties expected to be alone in our shame and humiliation, now we get to share it with you. Hi there! > > Why would you want to be in the same bracket as a bunch of Corbynistas? I would have thought anything up to and including a cattle prod in the balls would be preferable.
The story is the rise of the populist right. Victory over the old enemy is utterly irrelevant.
> @Cicero said: > > @malcolmg said: > > Reasoning being SNP are as Pro EU as the Lib Dems and the Lib Dems anti indy stance won't be rewarded. > > > > However the Greens are both pro EU and pro indy. > > > > Also they SNP are not lying unprincipled charlatans like the LD's. You could trust them as far as you could throw a Tory. > > Always easy to spot when we've got you beat Malcolm. Lib Dems looking good in Edinburgh and the North.
'got you beat'?
The SLDs beating the SNP in either vote % or MEPs would be a shock outstripping all others tonight.
We are in the final phase of the expectation management game - hence all the doom and gloom postings from 'Party Sources'
Perhaps everyone should just chill for an hour and then we can deal with the reality of the numbers rather than the guesswork (however well informed it is supposed to be)
> @Black_Rook said: > UK: estimated declaration times > > The following regions will declare at the below times, according to the Press Association: > > > East Midlands – 11.30pm Sunday (11.20pm in 2014). > > Eastern – 11.30pm Sunday (10.30pm in 2014). > > London – 2am Monday (3.06am in 2014). > > North-east – 10.30pm Sunday (10.15pm in 2014). > > North-west – 12.30am Monday (12.24am in 2014). > > Scotland – 11am Monday (12.35pm in 2014). N.B. Seats allocation for Scotland will be known from overnight local counts but the Western Isles count taking place later in the day will delay the final declaration. > > Wales – 12.01am Monday (11.38pm Sunday in 2014). > > South-east – 1am Monday (12.46am in 2014). > > South-west – 11pm Sunday (11.38pm in 2014). > > West Midlands – 12.01am Monday (12.30am in 2014). > > Yorkshire & the Humber – 11pm Sunday (11.28pm in 2014).
East Mids is probably the most Brexity region so should be a good bell weather. Micheal Mullaney in the second LD slot is a good bloke. I have leafleted for him in the council elections in Hinckley.
> @rcs1000 said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @not_on_fire said: > > > > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515 > > > > > > If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share. > > > > TBP has to beat LD+GRN+CUK in terms of votes to claim any bragging rights > > Ah hem: you also need to add UKIP to the BXP Party number. > > But you are right that if BXP + UKIP < LD + G + CUK, then it wouldn't be a great result for BXP.
31.6% wouldn't be much of a result for them whichever way round that inequality ends up.
> @oxfordsimon said: > We are in the final phase of the expectation management game - hence all the doom and gloom postings from 'Party Sources' > > Perhaps everyone should just chill for an hour and then we can deal with the reality of the numbers rather than the guesswork (however well informed it is supposed to be)
Nah, guesswork is much more fun
Read the tea-leaves
At least this time it isn't "I'm hearing turnout is up slightly in St Ives*" territory
*Cambridgeshire or Cornwall, we never would find out
> I do find this amusing from the BBC website... > So to comply with their interpretation of EU law the UK has banned exit polls or projections whilst the European Parliament itself is happily posting both.
>
> The operative words are “following UK law”.
>
> As so often, the constraints ascribed to the EU appear to be self-imposed.
Oh exactly. That is why I say 'their interpretation of EU law'.
So what is it that makes you imagine we’ll be better off outside of Europe ?
> @Pulpstar said: > Good old Nige, not taking any chances with his MEP seat - top of the list in the SouthEast ! > > Fair enough to him, he's made the party in about two months from zip.
I think you miss where the real credit for the Brexit party expected success has come from: The Brexit supporting media - The Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, The Sun and the Daily Express. The point is if they have made his success they can take it away as well.....
> If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share.
TBP has to beat LD+GRN+CUK in terms of votes to claim any bragging rights
That's just silly. Better bragging rights, to be sure, but come on, coming top by a long way, even if not as amazing as it seems given UKIP has done it, is not erased because the combination of three others will beat them.
> We are in the final phase of the expectation management game - hence all the doom and gloom postings from 'Party Sources'
>
> Perhaps everyone should just chill for an hour and then we can deal with the reality of the numbers rather than the guesswork (however well informed it is supposed to be)
Nah, guesswork is much more fun
Read the tea-leaves
At least this time it isn't "I'm hearing turnout is up slightly in St Ives*" territory
*Cambridgeshire or Cornwall, we never would find out
I'm almost sure 100% of Cambridge's voters will have gone for Brexit.
> @nico67 said: > Lib Dems think they’ve also taken Wimbledon . I think that’s Tory MP Stephen Hammonds seat .
It would have been surprising if they hadn't been ahead in Wimbledon. I'm more interested in the reports of them being ahead in Enfield from earlier today.
If going down to 1 MEP was the sign of the permanent wipe out of a party, we have to remember that Catherine Bearder was the only LD MEP in the last Euro Parliament. Nothing is forever. Well very few things.
> @rcs1000 said: > @RobD said: > I'm going to hazard a guess.... it will not change things one iota. The bureaucrats will continue with their path towards ever closer union. > > +++++++++++ > > Well, the hardline Eurofederalists (ALDE + G) have probably had a better night in terms of gains than the Eurosceptics (ECR + EFDD + GUE + ENF), which is not what I expected. > > I think the issue that the West is having is that it is becoming increasing polarised: either you're a hardcore internationalist or a hardcore nationalist, and the soft and fuzzy center is weakening.
> @Benpointer said: > @rcs1000, it's only two days ago you were saying LDs would come 4th: > > Brexit 31%. > Labour 20%. > Conservative16%. > LibDem 16% > Green 7% > UKIP 4% > CUK 1% > Nats 5%.
> @Byronic said: > > @bigjohnowls said: > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014) > > LDem: 15 (+14) > > Lab: 14 (-6) > > Con: 10 (-9) > > Grn: 4 (+1) > > SNP: 2 (-) > > PC: 1 (-) > > > > Britain Elects predicts< > > +++++ > > Britain Elects is Wrong. > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader? > >
Can't speak for BigJohn but for me the answer's "no". I think this election is all about Brexit, and parties without a zealous stance either way are being stuffed. Any party and any leader aspiring to national government would be similarly stuffed.
> @Byronic said: > > @bigjohnowls said: > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014) > > LDem: 15 (+14) > > Lab: 14 (-6) > > Con: 10 (-9) > > Grn: 4 (+1) > > SNP: 2 (-) > > PC: 1 (-) > > > > Britain Elects predicts< > > +++++ > > Britain Elects is Wrong. > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader? > >
Comments
> https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1132733375570165761
>
>
>
> They were sixth in the last Wales Yougov.
YouGov look to have got the essence of this election right.
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515
Not sure how 10 to 17 MEPs can get close to the national share for the BP. Weird .
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Has anyone got anything nice in the fridge to drink while the results come in?
> >
> > I’m hoping to open a nice bottle of schadenfreude.
>
> Given the state of UK politics, I’m thinking a bottle of meths.
>
>
I got wasted last night (not on meths) and a royal rocket from my wife this morning consequently, so I'll be lucky to get away with an ovaltine tonight.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515
>
> If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share.
100% turnout in London and about 20% elsewhere then ?
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515
>
> If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share.
BritainElects might not be right, but it is a reasonable baseline.
18.9% => 14 MEPs for the LDs
It's really, really good.
Much more fun than the EU elections.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515
>
> If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share.
Or, their vote share is higher and they're just crap at working with D'Hondt.
They wouldn't be the first.
Macron's man goes mad when he hears the exit poll
https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1132736867592540161
I'm not sure how this fits with the "populist tide reversed" narrative. It seems to me a very mixed bag. Some doing unexpectedly badly, some doing unexpectedly well.
I am no fan of Le Pen. It's just that I also no fan of Macron. Something about him just..... grates. And he is clearly an Anglophobe.
PS Macron's TV guy looks very much like Steve Bannon, which is confusing (unless I am deeply confused and that is his opponent; my French is rusty*)
*virtually non existent
> I'm sure they used to start counting the votes at 10pm for Euro elections, and it took another 3 or 4 hours for the results to start coming in.
It did.
Fair enough to him, he's made the party in about two months from zip.
> https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1132731928396861443?s=21
Fifth in Norwich must be BXP; LD; Grn, Con???
> https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1132731928396861443?s=21
5th in Norwich?! Jesus
That means either the Tories or Change have beaten them in Norwich, which has been a Labour council forever and a day
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1132731928396861443?s=21
>
> Fifth in Norwich must be BXP; LD; Grn, Con???
The order of the first three TBD I expect.
As so often, the constraints ascribed to the EU appear to be self-imposed.
> AVE IT final forecast!
>
> BXP 37%
> LD 32%
> GRN 8%
> LAB 8%
> CON 6%
> OTH 9%
Knock 14% off LDs
Knock 5% off BXP
Double Lab and Con
and you are spot on
Any idea how this sort of result would change the direction of the EU from its current make-up?
Good evening, everyone.
> https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1132731928396861443?s=21
The swing in Bristol West next time is going to be quite something.
> Lib Dems think they’ve also taken Wimbledon . I think that’s Tory MP Stephen Hammonds seat .
They should walk Wimbledon in these elections. They're talking about a serious challenge at Westminster.
> https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1132735035671490560<;
+++++
Labour THIRD, if they are LUCKY, in WALES
Lumme.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515
>
> If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share.
TBP has to beat LD+GRN+CUK in terms of votes to claim any bragging rights
> > @Ave_it said:
> > AVE IT final forecast!
> >
> > BXP 37%
> > LD 32%
> > GRN 8%
> > LAB 8%
> > CON 6%
> > OTH 9%
>
> Knock 14% off LDs
>
> Knock 5% off BXP
>
> Double Lab and Con
>
> and you are spot on
I think that's almost exactly right, except I think the LDs'll make 20%, while the Cons will struggle to get to 16%.
> https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1132731928396861443?s=21
Good grief fourth in Brighton . They have two out of 3 MPs there .
> I just bought the Oculus Quest
>
> It's really, really good.
>
> Much more fun than the EU elections.
Is this your first foray into VR? (I think not, but I don't quite recall)
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1132731928396861443?s=21
> >
> > Fifth in Norwich must be BXP; LD; Grn, Con???
>
> The order of the first three TBD I expect.
I can't see BXP winning Norwich, it's way too Remainy even with the split remain vote. Lib Dems on top I reckon.
> > @StuartDickson said:
>
> > Latest prognosis European Parliament:
>
> > EPP 177 (-39)
>
> > S&D 147 (-40)
>
> > ALDE 101 (+32)
>
> > G/EFA 69 (+17)
>
> > ECR 59 (-18)
>
> > ENF 57 (+21)
>
> > EFDD 56 (+14)
>
> > GUE/NGL 42 (-10)
>
> > NI 8 (-12)
>
> > Others 35 (+35) Brexit Party??
>
>
>
> Brexit Party is in EFDD.
>
>
> Any idea how this sort of result would change the direction of the EU from its current make-up?
>
> Good evening, everyone.
I'm going to hazard a guess.... it will not change things one iota. The bureaucrats will continue with their path towards ever closer union.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @not_on_fire said:
> > > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515
> >
> > If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share.
>
> TBP has to beat LD+GRN+CUK in terms of votes to claim any bragging rights
Ah hem: you also need to add UKIP to the BXP Party number.
But you are right that if BXP + UKIP < LD + G + CUK, then it wouldn't be a great result for BXP.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1132731928396861443?s=21
>
> The swing in Bristol West next time is going to be quite something.
Perhaps Corbybism is over?
Something we could all celebrate.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1132731928396861443?s=21
>
> Good grief fourth in Brighton . They have two out of 3 MPs there .
I did report earlier that we were Totally Fucked...
Will the story tomorrow be Labours poor showing?
>
>
> It's because us centre-righties expected to be alone in our shame and humiliation, now we get to share it with you. Hi there!
>
> Why would you want to be in the same bracket as a bunch of Corbynistas? I would have thought anything up to and including a cattle prod in the balls would be preferable.<
++++++
I don't think you grasp my point, but, to be fair, it wasn't the Point of the Century
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1132731928396861443?s=21
> > >
> > > Fifth in Norwich must be BXP; LD; Grn, Con???
> >
> > The order of the first three TBD I expect.
>
> I can't see BXP winning Norwich, it's way too Remainy even with the split remain vote. Lib Dems on top I reckon.
I didn't mean to put mine in any particular order.
I think it will be LD; BXP; Grn.; Lab/Con close.
All the Canadians play in the NHL, the Finns are all rookies at the international level.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1132731928396861443?s=21
> >
> > The swing in Bristol West next time is going to be quite something.
>
> Perhaps Corbybism is over?
>
> Something we could all celebrate.
I will drink to that!
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @not_on_fire said:
> > > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515
> >
> > If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share.
>
> TBP has to beat LD+GRN+CUK in terms of votes to claim any bragging rights
Nah its BXP and ukip vs those 3
> I do find this amusing from the BBC website
>
>
>
>
>
> "Why isn't the BBC carrying exit polls?
>
>
>
> A reminder that the BBC is following UK law on reporting any exit polls or projections that might exist out there.
>
>
>
> Under UK law, there are restrictions about what broadcasters can say while polls are open.
>
>
>
> The European Parliament's own website is providing up-to-date exit polls from EU member states as well as projecting what they mean for the make-up of the Parliament."
>
>
>
> So to comply with their interpretation of EU law the UK has banned exit polls or projections whilst the European Parliament itself is happily posting both.
>
> The operative words are “following UK law”.
>
> As so often, the constraints ascribed to the EU appear to be self-imposed.
Oh exactly. That is why I say 'their interpretation of EU law'.
> I just bought the Oculus Quest
>
> It's really, really good.
>
> Much more fun than the EU elections.
Are you new here?
LDem: 15 (+14)
Lab: 14 (-6)
Con: 10 (-9)
Grn: 4 (+1)
SNP: 2 (-)
PC: 1 (-)
Britain Elects predicts
> I think Labour are in much bigger trouble than what the I can't believe it's not an exit poll is saying.
If they are fifth in Norwich they are way under 20% nationally, more like 12%
> > @Black_Rook said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1132728085764354048
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Heart of stone, etc.
>
>
>
> It's a useful reminder that our politicians are so brain dead and moronic that they'll draw the conclusions they want to tonight regardless of the results.
>
> Very unfair comment. What have brain-dead morons ever done to you that they deserve being compared to Adonis?
Very good!
LMAO
I'm going to hazard a guess.... it will not change things one iota. The bureaucrats will continue with their path towards ever closer union.
+++++++++++
Well, the hardline Eurofederalists (ALDE + G) have probably had a better night in terms of gains than the Eurosceptics (ECR + EFDD + GUE + ENF), which is not what I expected.
I think the issue that the West is having is that it is becoming increasing polarised: either you're a hardcore internationalist or a hardcore nationalist, and the soft and fuzzy center is weakening.
> > @StuartDickson said:
>
> > Latest prognosis European Parliament:
>
> > EPP 177 (-39)
>
> > S&D 147 (-40)
>
> > ALDE 101 (+32)
>
> > G/EFA 69 (+17)
>
> > ECR 59 (-18)
>
> > ENF 57 (+21)
>
> > EFDD 56 (+14)
>
> > GUE/NGL 42 (-10)
>
> > NI 8 (-12)
>
> > Others 35 (+35) Brexit Party??
>
>
>
> Brexit Party is in EFDD.
>
>
> Any idea how this sort of result would change the direction of the EU from its current make-up?
>
> Good evening, everyone.
Hello Anne. ~It's a swing to the right (ENF/EFDD+35, S&D/GUE-50 but the centrists are doing well (ALDE/EFA+49) and the Christian Democrats poorly (-39), and overall the ultra-nationalists will be disappointed. As before, nothing much can be done without the Christian Democrats, who are by and large moderate pro-EU conservatives like Merkel.
> > @Jonathan said:
>
> > Labour are in for a very bad one.
>
> >
>
> > Tory posters seemingly excited by that like old times, whilst entirely missing the point. <
>
>
>
> +++++
>
>
>
> It's because us centre-righties expected to be alone in our shame and humiliation, now we get to share it with you. Hi there!
>
> Why would you want to be in the same bracket as a bunch of Corbynistas? I would have thought anything up to and including a cattle prod in the balls would be preferable.
The story is the rise of the populist right. Victory over the old enemy is utterly irrelevant.
> https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1132736081596690432
As someone who sold the Conservatives on SPIN at 7.2, I can hope.
Tories 4 seats max..prob 2
BP 33
LD 24
Con 11
Lab 11
Green 10
Ukip 5
CUK 3
> > @malcolmg said:
> > Reasoning being SNP are as Pro EU as the Lib Dems and the Lib Dems anti indy stance won't be rewarded.
> >
> > However the Greens are both pro EU and pro indy.
> >
> > Also they SNP are not lying unprincipled charlatans like the LD's. You could trust them as far as you could throw a Tory.
>
> Always easy to spot when we've got you beat Malcolm. Lib Dems looking good in Edinburgh and the North.
'got you beat'?
The SLDs beating the SNP in either vote % or MEPs would be a shock outstripping all others tonight.
Perhaps everyone should just chill for an hour and then we can deal with the reality of the numbers rather than the guesswork (however well informed it is supposed to be)
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1132736081596690432
>
> As someone who sold the Conservatives on SPIN at 7.2, I can hope.<
++++
Teresa got out just in time.
Brexit 31%.
Labour 20%.
Conservative16%.
LibDem 16%
Green 7%
UKIP 4%
CUK 1%
Nats 5%.
> UK: estimated declaration times
>
> The following regions will declare at the below times, according to the Press Association:
>
>
> East Midlands – 11.30pm Sunday (11.20pm in 2014).
>
> Eastern – 11.30pm Sunday (10.30pm in 2014).
>
> London – 2am Monday (3.06am in 2014).
>
> North-east – 10.30pm Sunday (10.15pm in 2014).
>
> North-west – 12.30am Monday (12.24am in 2014).
>
> Scotland – 11am Monday (12.35pm in 2014). N.B. Seats allocation for Scotland will be known from overnight local counts but the Western Isles count taking place later in the day will delay the final declaration.
>
> Wales – 12.01am Monday (11.38pm Sunday in 2014).
>
> South-east – 1am Monday (12.46am in 2014).
>
> South-west – 11pm Sunday (11.38pm in 2014).
>
> West Midlands – 12.01am Monday (12.30am in 2014).
>
> Yorkshire & the Humber – 11pm Sunday (11.28pm in 2014).
East Mids is probably the most Brexity region so should be a good bell weather. Micheal Mullaney in the second LD slot is a good bloke. I have leafleted for him in the council elections in Hinckley.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @not_on_fire said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515
> > >
> > > If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share.
> >
> > TBP has to beat LD+GRN+CUK in terms of votes to claim any bragging rights
>
> Ah hem: you also need to add UKIP to the BXP Party number.
>
> But you are right that if BXP + UKIP < LD + G + CUK, then it wouldn't be a great result for BXP.
31.6% wouldn't be much of a result for them whichever way round that inequality ends up.
> We are in the final phase of the expectation management game - hence all the doom and gloom postings from 'Party Sources'
>
> Perhaps everyone should just chill for an hour and then we can deal with the reality of the numbers rather than the guesswork (however well informed it is supposed to be)
Nah, guesswork is much more fun
Read the tea-leaves
At least this time it isn't "I'm hearing turnout is up slightly in St Ives*" territory
*Cambridgeshire or Cornwall, we never would find out
> Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> LDem: 15 (+14)
> Lab: 14 (-6)
> Con: 10 (-9)
> Grn: 4 (+1)
> SNP: 2 (-)
> PC: 1 (-)
>
> Britain Elects predicts<
+++++
Britain Elects is Wrong.
BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader?
> Good old Nige, not taking any chances with his MEP seat - top of the list in the SouthEast !
>
> Fair enough to him, he's made the party in about two months from zip.
I think you miss where the real credit for the Brexit party expected success has come from: The Brexit supporting media - The Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, The Sun and the Daily Express. The point is if they have made his success they can take it away as well.....
> My final prediction -
>
> BP 33
> LD 24
> Con 11
> Lab 11
> Green 10
> Ukip 5
> CUK 3
Final prediction:
BXP 30
Libdems 27
Green 12
Labour 9
Con 7
Can't answer for neighbouring Slimbridge.
> Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> LDem: 15 (+14)
> Lab: 14 (-6)
> Con: 10 (-9)
> Grn: 4 (+1)
> SNP: 2 (-)
> PC: 1 (-)
>
> Britain Elects predicts
Mind you i thought we had 73 MEPs
> Lib Dems think they’ve also taken Wimbledon . I think that’s Tory MP Stephen Hammonds seat .
It would have been surprising if they hadn't been ahead in Wimbledon. I'm more interested in the reports of them being ahead in Enfield from earlier today.
> https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1132736081596690432
>
>
>
> There's something very bittersweet about the tories losing all but 1 MEP, with the one who remains being Daniel Hannan.
As already posted, it would then be delicious if he then gave the coup de grace by defecting to BXP in the morning.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1132733375570165761
> >
> >
> >
> > They were sixth in the last Wales Yougov.
>
> YouGov look to have got the essence of this election right.
I certainly hope so. YouGov’s SNP and SCon figures were absolutely delicious.
> @RobD said:
> I'm going to hazard a guess.... it will not change things one iota. The bureaucrats will continue with their path towards ever closer union.
>
> +++++++++++
>
> Well, the hardline Eurofederalists (ALDE + G) have probably had a better night in terms of gains than the Eurosceptics (ECR + EFDD + GUE + ENF), which is not what I expected.
>
> I think the issue that the West is having is that it is becoming increasing polarised: either you're a hardcore internationalist or a hardcore nationalist, and the soft and fuzzy center is weakening.
Exactly.
Sounds healthy.
> @rcs1000, it's only two days ago you were saying LDs would come 4th:
>
> Brexit 31%.
> Labour 20%.
> Conservative16%.
> LibDem 16%
> Green 7%
> UKIP 4%
> CUK 1%
> Nats 5%.
+++++++++++++++++
I change my mind when the facts do.
What do you do?
>
>
> What is up with the BritainElects prediction then?
It's just a projection based on the polls, but it looks like there's been a big polling failure.
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> > LDem: 15 (+14)
> > Lab: 14 (-6)
> > Con: 10 (-9)
> > Grn: 4 (+1)
> > SNP: 2 (-)
> > PC: 1 (-)
> >
> > Britain Elects predicts
>
> Mind you i thought we had 73 MEPs
3 irish
Way too short IMHO
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1132738245836574720
Tremendous.
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> > LDem: 15 (+14)
> > Lab: 14 (-6)
> > Con: 10 (-9)
> > Grn: 4 (+1)
> > SNP: 2 (-)
> > PC: 1 (-)
> >
> > Britain Elects predicts<
>
> +++++
>
> Britain Elects is Wrong.
>
> BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader?
>
>
Can't speak for BigJohn but for me the answer's "no". I think this election is all about Brexit, and parties without a zealous stance either way are being stuffed. Any party and any leader aspiring to national government would be similarly stuffed.
London LD
SE LD
SW BXP
Wales LD
East Midlands BXP
West Midlands BXP
NW BXP
Yorkshire etc BXP
NE BXP
Scotland SLD
NI Sinn Fein
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> > LDem: 15 (+14)
> > Lab: 14 (-6)
> > Con: 10 (-9)
> > Grn: 4 (+1)
> > SNP: 2 (-)
> > PC: 1 (-)
> >
> > Britain Elects predicts<
>
> +++++
>
> Britain Elects is Wrong.
>
> BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader?
>
>
No its a protest vote.
A GE means JIPM
Recovery is not Drakeforward.
People are Baying for them.
Should I go on?
> Is there an "exit poll" for the UK coming up at 10pm?
No - the real results will come quite quickly. The NE should announce by half ten and London last at 2am. NI results tomorrow.