> We should remember that the LibDem good news stories that are filtering through via Twitter are coming from areas where LibDems are active enough to be sending people to watch the counts. Which will be by far a minority of UK counting halls.
Incorrect.
I’ve been a LibDem since my schooldays and expect they will do well tonight. But I am not going to get over euphoric at tweets from smiling LibDems from the likes of Camden (two of whom I helped first get elected to Camden Council in my fresh faced 20s)
> @williamglenn said: > > @Byronic said: > > This is interesting and true. > > > > Labour's recovery in 2017 had more to do with Brexit and less to do with Corbyn than Corbyn's acolytes want to believe.
At the same time, he did have a clear recovery among some C2DE voters, and even some movement from northern UKIP voters back towards Labour.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > they add the EU Parliament group next to the party name > > EPP=People's Party > > S&D= Social Democrats > > ALDE= Liberals > > G/EFA= Greens and friends > > ECR= Conservative and Reformists > > GUE= Left of socialists, commies, etc > > (EFDD= Europe of Freedom (Farage, etc) > > ENF= LePen, Salvini, etc > > NI= no groups<
> @MaxPB said: > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years." > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s > > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life. > > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
which assume that someone starting on £35k finishes their career at £75k after 30 years and ends up paying £53k - a far cry from £179k & about 3% of their total income.
The whole point of the system is that it’s really a graduate tax in disguise - you’re not meant to 'pay off the loan'. 3% seems within the bounds of reasonableness for such a tax I would have thought.
> "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years."
> This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life.
>
> I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
You were warned.
I know that because I warned the PB Tories myself. Repeatedly.
That Cameron and Osborne decided to triple lock pensions at the same time as tripling tuition fees emphasised how young graduates were viewed by the Conservative party.
And if there was any lingering doubt the Conservative preference for higher house prices rather than higher home ownership ended it.
If the Conservatives want to find young voters in future they will have to look northwards where there are fewer graduates and more affordable housing.
I think the only way to handle this now will be to go down the road of debt forgiveness, overpayment refunds alongside the new proposals to limit fees to £7.5k and interest to 1.5%.
That brings the maximum interest amount down to about £400 per year from £3k per year at the moment.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Byronic said: > > This is interesting and true. > > > > Labour's recovery in 2017 had more to do with Brexit and less to do with Corbyn than Corbyn's acolytes want to believe.
Absolutely right. I voted LAB at GE2017 in a seat gained by the party and it drives me crazy when the cultists claim the 12m+ votes were all for the anointed one.
> @Pulpstar said: > EFDD is just Brexit Party and 5 *, ENF is the rest of the hardish right (UKIP, Le Pen, Salvini) > ECR is the Tories and not much else I think.
There were London wide local elections on EU Election Day in 2014, yet the reported Camden turnout is UP on 2014? Now that is remarkable.
That’s because we're MAD Ian. We're mad as hell and we won't take it any more.
It is not acceptable - to us - for reactionary right wing politicians to pretend they care about the proles while at the same time engaging in a major effort to fuck them over.
Perhaps I should apologise but I won't. It's just the way we are around here.
> @IanB2 said: > Anyone who voted Tory or Labour in this election should hang their head in shame. When a quasi-referendum comes along, what can possibly be achieved by voting ‘don’t know’?
I have no shame in voting conservative as I believed, and still do, TM deal achieved brexit and I have no intention of giving credence to Farage
> @brendan16 said: > > @IanB2 said: > > We should remember that the LibDem good news stories that are filtering through via Twitter are coming from areas where LibDems are active enough to be sending people to watch the counts. Which will be by far a minority of UK counting halls. > > London in other words - which seems to be the only place where we have any concrete reports but admittedly not from outer London more leave inclined areas like Bexley Havering Hillingdon Barking and Dagenham etc > > Bar Cheshire east is there any firm info from outside the north and south circular roads?
I am looking at the South West to see whether the Lib Dems are back in the game. This region was as close to a heartland as they had. Bad results here will mean the old feeling betrayed Lib Dem voter may not be back at all, but a new dynamic is playing out.
> "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years."
which assume that someone starting on £35k finishes their career at £75k after 30 years and ends up paying £53k - a far cry from £179k & about 3% of their total income.
The whole point of the system is that it’s really a graduate tax in disguise - you’re not meant to 'pay off the loan'. 3% seems within the bounds of reasonableness for such a tax I would have thought.
Unless you work in a specific industry there's no way that the £75k finishing salary is realistic.
> @Phil said: > > @MaxPB said: > > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years." > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s > > > > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life. > > > > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable. > > Those numbers seem out of line with the calculations on https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/student-loan-repayment-calculator > > which assume that someone starting on £35k finishes their career at £75k after 30 years and ends up paying £53k - a far cry from £179k & about 3% of their total income. > > The whole point of the system is that it’s really a graduate tax in disguise - you’re not meant to 'pay off the loan'. 3% seems within the bounds of reasonableness for such a tax I would have thought.
If it's a tax, what on earth is the justification for making it regressive past a certain income level? Why am I going to end up paying less than people who earn less than me?
There was a large anti-Brexit vote for Lab last time. In middle class big house areas. It was a protest plus no one thought he would win. Now that Jezza's intentions have become clear , or rather unclear, and it is in the realms of the possible that Lab could win, I don't see that vote staying with him.
> @another_richard said: > > @MaxPB said: > > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years." > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s > > > > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life. > > > > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable. > > You were warned. > > I know that because I warned the PB Tories myself. Repeatedly. > > That Cameron and Osborne decided to triple lock pensions at the same time as tripling tuition fees emphasised how young graduates were viewed by the Conservative party. > > And if there was any lingering doubt the Conservative preference for higher house prices rather than higher home ownership ended it. > > If the Conservatives want to find young voters in future they will have to look northwards where there are fewer graduates and more affordable housing.
May is set to reduce the maximum fees for uni to £7k in one of her last acts as PM and Tory councils are building more houses under local plans despite NIMBY objections.
However you are right and I expect the Tories to do far better in the Midlands and even the North tonight than they will do in London
Given that, according to their prior tweet, they are about to publish their most authoritative prediction yet, why would they publish this article and risk looking utter fools, just forty minutes before their prediction??
> @HYUFD said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @MaxPB said: > > > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years." > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s > > > > > > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life. > > > > > > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable. > > > > You were warned. > > > > I know that because I warned the PB Tories myself. Repeatedly. > > > > That Cameron and Osborne decided to triple lock pensions at the same time as tripling tuition fees emphasised how young graduates were viewed by the Conservative party. > > > > And if there was any lingering doubt the Conservative preference for higher house prices rather than higher home ownership ended it. > > > > If the Conservatives want to find young voters in future they will have to look northwards where there are fewer graduates and more affordable housing. > > May is set to reduce the maximum fees for uni to £7k in one of her first acts as PM and Tory councils are building more houses under local plans despite NIMBY objections. > > However you are right and I expect the Tories to do far better in the Midlands and even the North tonight than they will do in London
Was that "one of her first acts as PM" a Freudian slip?
> @TOPPING said: > This is interesting and true. > > https://twitter.com/francessmith/status/1132676306972434434 > > > > There was a large anti-Brexit vote for Lab last time. In middle class big house areas. It was a protest plus no one thought he would win. Now that Jezza's intentions have become clear , or rather unclear, and it is in the realms of the possible that Lab could win, I don't see that vote staying with him.
That's true, but it's important to note that he did get new C2DE Brexit-tendency voters, too.
I think what he got was a very unstable coalition of pro-nationalisation working class voters with metropolitan liberals angry about Europe. "Mondeo man" swing voters and middle england were less in the picture. He may only have one half of the coalition left, if he's not careful.
@MaxPB said: A good old bit of civil service gold plating...
+++++++++++++++
IIRC, the wording is something along the lines of "no results are to be released until the conclusion of the election".
Which some countries have codified as "exit polls are fine, but full results require every county to have finished voting", while others have gone for "release 'em as soon as *we've* finished voting", while the UK has taken it to mean "nothing election related of any kind until after every EU country's election is over."
> @dixiedean said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > @MaxPB said: > > > > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years." > > > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s > > > > > > > > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life. > > > > > > > > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable. > > > > > > You were warned. > > > > > > I know that because I warned the PB Tories myself. Repeatedly. > > > > > > That Cameron and Osborne decided to triple lock pensions at the same time as tripling tuition fees emphasised how young graduates were viewed by the Conservative party. > > > > > > And if there was any lingering doubt the Conservative preference for higher house prices rather than higher home ownership ended it. > > > > > > If the Conservatives want to find young voters in future they will have to look northwards where there are fewer graduates and more affordable housing. > > > > May is set to reduce the maximum fees for uni to £7k in one of her first acts as PM and Tory councils are building more houses under local plans despite NIMBY objections. > > > > However you are right and I expect the Tories to do far better in the Midlands and even the North tonight than they will do in London > > Was that "one of her first acts as PM" a Freudian slip?
> @TOPPING said: > There was a large anti-Brexit vote for Lab last time. In middle class big house areas. It was a protest plus no one thought he would win. Now that Jezza's intentions have become clear , or rather unclear, and it is in the realms of the possible that Lab could win, I don't see that vote staying with him.
Always worth remembering, whenever we get to the next GE. I suspect that a fair fraction of the Labour vote in 2017 only backed Corbyn because they had had their heads pumped full of polling trash by broadcasters and concluded that he had no chance of winning.
Labour ought to get a lot more scrutiny in the next campaign, and I doubt that its ideas on, for example, partial expropriation of utilities will do especially well.
Nasty, expensive, horrid electricity providers today. Your house tomorrow.
> @rcs1000 said: > @MaxPB said: > A good old bit of civil service gold plating... > > +++++++++++++++ > > IIRC, the wording is something along the lines of "no results are to be released until the conclusion of the election". > > Which some countries have codified as "exit polls are fine, but full results require every county to have finished voting", while others have gone for "release 'em as soon as *we've* finished voting", while the UK has taken it to mean "nothing election related of any kind until after every EU country's election is over."
Probably how just about every EU directive has been implemented here
I've taken a few little nibbles here and there on Corbyn's imminent (political) demise. There are a few ways to this playing out, and I think it's coming soon.
@ralphmalph said: I am looking at the South West to see whether the Lib Dems are back in the game. This region was as close to a heartland as they had. Bad results here will mean the old feeling betrayed Lib Dem voter may not be back at all, but a new dynamic is playing out.
++++++++++++++
While that's true, it's also true that the SW is among the most Eurosceptic areas of the UK. One would therefore expect that the LDs would do less well there than in areas where Remain is strong.
(Before the 2017 General Election, I accused the LDs of having a SW London, not a SW England strategy. And I think that remains true.)
> @WhisperingOracle said: > > @TOPPING said: > > This is interesting and true. > > > > https://twitter.com/francessmith/status/1132676306972434434 > > > > > > > > There was a large anti-Brexit vote for Lab last time. In middle class big house areas. It was a protest plus no one thought he would win. Now that Jezza's intentions have become clear , or rather unclear, and it is in the realms of the possible that Lab could win, I don't see that vote staying with him. > > That's true, but it's important to note that he did get new C2DE Brexit-tendency voters, too. > > I think what he got was a very unstable coalition of pro-nationalisation working class voters with metropolitan liberals angry about Europe. "Mondeo man" swing voters and middle england were less in the picture. He may only have one half of the coalition left, if he's not careful.
Or neither. It is fortunate it is Farage and not Galloway or the RCP leading BP.
> @WhisperingOracle said: > > I think what he got was a very unstable coalition of pro-nationalisation working class voters with metropolitan liberals angry about Europe. "Mondeo man" swing voters and middle england were less in the picture. He may only have one half of the coalition left, if he's not careful. ------
He may end up with neither half. Labour look like a Remain party in pro-Brexit areas and a Brexit party in pro-Remain areas.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > @MaxPB said: > > A good old bit of civil service gold plating... > > > > +++++++++++++++ > > > > IIRC, the wording is something along the lines of "no results are to be released until the conclusion of the election". > > > > Which some countries have codified as "exit polls are fine, but full results require every county to have finished voting", while others have gone for "release 'em as soon as *we've* finished voting", while the UK has taken it to mean "nothing election related of any kind until after every EU country's election is over." > > Probably how just about every EU directive has been implemented here
> @MaxPB said: > > @MaxPB said: > > > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years." > > > > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s > > > > > > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life. > > > > > > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable. > > > > You were warned. > > > > I know that because I warned the PB Tories myself. Repeatedly. > > > > That Cameron and Osborne decided to triple lock pensions at the same time as tripling tuition fees emphasised how young graduates were viewed by the Conservative party. > > > > And if there was any lingering doubt the Conservative preference for higher house prices rather than higher home ownership ended it. > > > > If the Conservatives want to find young voters in future they will have to look northwards where there are fewer graduates and more affordable housing. > > I think the only way to handle this now will be to go down the road of debt forgiveness, overpayment refunds alongside the new proposals to limit fees to £7.5k and interest to 1.5%. > > That brings the maximum interest amount down to about £400 per year from £3k per year at the moment.
I think student loans are going to start impacting government finance figures now.
If so then governments have little to lose in not sorting out the mess.
> > The whole point of the system is that it’s really a graduate tax in disguise - you’re not meant to 'pay off the loan'. 3% seems within the bounds of reasonableness for such a tax I would have thought. > > If it's a tax, what on earth is the justification for making it regressive past a certain income level? Why am I going to end up paying less than people who earn less than me?
I believe (but don’t actually know) that the contortions over the system arose out of a desire to a) ensure that non-UK EU students would be on the hook for the fees and b) achieving a compromise between Conservative desires for a US-style fee system & the LibDems insistence on neutering the worst aspects of that system.
That the outcome is imperfect should be no surprise whatsoever, but effectively what we’ve got is a graduate tax we can legally impose on non-UK citizens (if not necessarily practically impose...) with some very odd warts as a result of those compromises.
That the very well paid end up paying less than the merely well off is definitely one of those warts.
> @nico67 said: > > @Byronic said: > > This is interesting and true. > > > > https://twitter.com/francessmith/status/1132676306972434434 > > Why should I as a Labour Remainer stay loyal to a party that has sat on the fence on the most important political issue for the last 50 years . > > 80% of the members want a second vote . > > Over 70% of Labour voters now want to Remain . > > Who is being disloyal to who .
-------------------------------------------- Presumably (and subject to confirmation) they aren't Labour voters now.
> @IanB2 said: > There's a free fiver to be had on Betfair if you think the Brexit Party will get at least 15% of the vote. Which they will, of course. > > Shame you have to lodge £5000 to get it....
That's why I haven't taken it. I thought some of the more successful folks on here could grab it. Maybe not worth their time to stoop down and pick up pennies off the floor though
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > This is interesting and true. > > > > > > > Labour's recovery in 2017 had more to do with Brexit and less to do with Corbyn than Corbyn's acolytes want to believe. > > Absolutely right. I voted LAB at GE2017 in a seat gained by the party and it drives me crazy when the cultists claim the 12m+ votes were all for the anointed one.
Me too. Hopefully tonight might be the beginning of the cultists rude awakening
> @ah009 said: > I've taken a few little nibbles here and there on Corbyn's imminent (political) demise. There are a few ways to this playing out, and I think it's coming soon.<
+++++
Also factor in the multiple well-sourced reports that he's tired and bored and dislikes the job. Supposedly it is Milne, McDonnel and McCluskey who have so far persuaded him to stay on, against his own wishes. They want him to remain in situ, until they can find a worthy successor.
@nunuone said: "TAKE BACK CONTROL.......FROM WHITEHALL".
++++++++++++++++
When we're eventually gone, it would be extremely interesting to take 100 directives, and see how they were implemented in local law in each of the EU countries. I suspect you'd see an extremely wide variance, but with the UK pretty much always being the outlier.
IIRC, the wording is something along the lines of "no results are to be released until the conclusion of the election".
Which some countries have codified as "exit polls are fine, but full results require every county to have finished voting", while others have gone for "release 'em as soon as *we've* finished voting", while the UK has taken it to mean "nothing election related of any kind until after every EU country's election is over."
Yeah, it could easily be interpreted to mean once voting was over in the UK. The civil service always choose to make the rod for our own back. Honestly if we sacked the lot of them I think we'd see a general improvement with our relationship with the EU.
> Unless you work in a specific industry there's no way that the £75k finishing salary is realistic.
Lots of people top out their careers at that level. Combination of there not being that many slots at higher pay grades & just not wanting the aggravation.
I imagine the Times has chosen the worst possible case for their £179k example; what’s that cost as a percentage of lifetime pay?
Always worth remembering, whenever we get to the next GE. I suspect that a fair fraction of the Labour vote in 2017 only backed Corbyn because they had had their heads pumped full of polling trash by broadcasters and concluded that he had no chance of winning.
Labour ought to get a lot more scrutiny in the next campaign, and I doubt that its ideas on, for example, partial expropriation of utilities will do especially well.
Nasty, expensive, horrid electricity providers today. Your house tomorrow.
I think it was a golden confluence of events and sentiment and I'm not sure it will reoccur.
> @Roger said: > > @MikeSmithson said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > This is interesting and true. > > > > > > > > > > Labour's recovery in 2017 had more to do with Brexit and less to do with Corbyn than Corbyn's acolytes want to believe. > > > > Absolutely right. I voted LAB at GE2017 in a seat gained by the party and it drives me crazy when the cultists claim the 12m+ votes were all for the anointed one. > > Me too. Hopefully tonight might be the beginning of the cultists rude awakening<
++++
I have a number of Corbynite friends. They used to be very vocal in their support of him, now they are quiet to the point of apathy. His attitude to Brexit has been the clincher.
For all the fervent Corbynism on Twitter, and elsewhere, I suspect he might be down to his hardcore fanbase now. Tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands.
> There's a free fiver to be had on Betfair if you think the Brexit Party will get at least 15% of the vote. Which they will, of course.
>
> Shame you have to lodge £5000 to get it....
That's why I haven't taken it. I thought some of the more successful folks on here could grab it. Maybe not worth their time to stoop down and pick up pennies off the floor though
Anyone who has £5000 sitting in an instant access account and is willing to trust BF with it doesn’t need £5
> Unless you work in a specific industry there's no way that the £75k finishing salary is realistic.
Lots of people top out their careers at that level. Combination of there not being that many slots at higher pay grades & just not wanting the aggravation.
I imagine the Times has chosen the worst possible case for their £179k example; what’s that cost as a percentage of lifetime pay?
Lots of people end their career on £75k? Are you having a giraffe? That’s about the 97th percentile gross salary.
> @rcs1000 said: > @nunuone said: > "TAKE BACK CONTROL.......FROM WHITEHALL". > > ++++++++++++++++ > > When we're eventually gone, it would be extremely interesting to take 100 directives, and see how they were implemented in local law in each of the EU countries. I suspect you'd see an extremely wide variance, but with the UK pretty much always being the outlier.
I wonder how much of this is a consequence of history.
For most of Europe laws were something which were imposed on them by distant authoritarian governments with no pretence of democracy - Moscow, Istanbul, Vienna, Rome (the Catholic church) - and so were to be implemented laxly or ignored where possible.
I think there's a real risk for Labour that if they react to this disaster by trying to move to being more pro-Remain, it will be seen as too little, too late, and they'll just alienate the people they've been trying to cling on to for the last couple of years by triangulating. Both parties risk entering a death spiral.
Little bits of info here and there. Brexit Party winning the poll in marginally remain Sefton. If they win everywhere apart from the uber remain strongholds then obviously it bodes very well for them.
> @not_on_fire said: > > Unless you work in a specific industry there's no way that the £75k finishing salary is realistic. > > > > Lots of people top out their careers at that level. Combination of there not being that many slots at higher pay grades & just not wanting the aggravation. > > > > I imagine the Times has chosen the worst possible case for their £179k example; what’s that cost as a percentage of lifetime pay? > > Lots of people end their career on £75k? Are you having a giraffe? That’s about the 97th percentile gross salary.
Well perhaps they do in the Camden bubble? No wonder ‘people’ are so ‘angry’ in Hampstead Belsize Park and Primrose HIll - life must be really tough there campaigning against the largest new luxury housing development blocking your view or Tesco or the co-op opening in your exclusive high street which might force your favourite charcuterie out of business!
> @rcs1000 said: > @ralphmalph said: > I am looking at the South West to see whether the Lib Dems are back in the game. This region was as close to a heartland as they had. Bad results here will mean the old feeling betrayed Lib Dem voter may not be back at all, but a new dynamic is playing out. > > ++++++++++++++ > > While that's true, it's also true that the SW is among the most Eurosceptic areas of the UK. One would therefore expect that the LDs would do less well there than in areas where Remain is strong. > > (Before the 2017 General Election, I accused the LDs of having a SW London, not a SW England strategy. And I think that remains true.)
But is that, if one interprets it in a broader cultural rather than narrow geographical sense, such a bad thing (taking into account their positioning/natural inclination as a strong Europhile party?)
I'm not suggesting that the Lib Dems neglect any part of the country, but they're likely to have more joy targeting St Albans than St Austell, surely?
> @Byronic said: > > I really wish Europe Elects (who are very informative) would simply add a descriptor to each party - right, centre right, Green, far left, etc. At the moment these tweets looks like a rather thick alphabet soup and they make my brain hurt.
From left to right: GUE=far left/greens S&D=centre-left (social democrats) EFA=non-leftist Greens ALDE=liberals EPP=centre-right (Christian Democrats) ECR=right (Tories and misc allies) EFDD=further right (Farage and friends) ENF=far right (French National Front and friends)
The key ones to look out for are EPP (dominant up to now - Merkel et al), S&D (mainstream left), ALDE (liberals) and the EFDD/ENF far right.
> @brendan16 said: > > @not_on_fire said: > > > Unless you work in a specific industry there's no way that the £75k finishing salary is realistic. > > > > > > > > Lots of people top out their careers at that level. Combination of there not being that many slots at higher pay grades & just not wanting the aggravation. > > > > > > > > I imagine the Times has chosen the worst possible case for their £179k example; what’s that cost as a percentage of lifetime pay? > > > > Lots of people end their career on £75k? Are you having a giraffe? That’s about the 97th percentile gross salary. > > Well perhaps they do in the Camden bubble? No wonder ‘people’ are so ‘angry’ in Hampstead Belsize Park and Primrose HIll - life must be really tough there!
The last three you mentioned are clearly affluent, rather than middle-class. Large swathes of inner London have become educated and generally left-leaning middle class, without being at the very top-end affluent.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Byronic said: > > > > I really wish Europe Elects (who are very informative) would simply add a descriptor to each party - right, centre right, Green, far left, etc. At the moment these tweets looks like a rather thick alphabet soup and they make my brain hurt. > > From left to right: > GUE=far left/greens > S&D=centre-left (social democrats) > EFA=non-leftist Greens > ALDE=liberals > EPP=centre-right (Christian Democrats) > ECR=right (Tories and misc allies) > EFDD=further right (Farage and friends) > ENF=far right (French National Front and friends) > > The key ones to look out for are EPP (dominant up to now - Merkel et al), S&D (mainstream left), ALDE (liberals) and the EFDD/ENF far right. <
to repost from Wed 2300, I may have been too optomistic for Lab and pessimistic for LDs.
> @Floater said: > > @Foxy said: > > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast. > > > > 33% Turnout > > > > 31% BXP > > 21% LD > > 14% Con > > 12% Lab > > 10% Green > > 4% CHUK > > 4% UKIP > > 4% Other > > > > > > That's a joke right? > > Labour below tories? > > Can't see it.
Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads.
I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD.
@another_richard said: For most of Europe laws were something which were imposed on them by distant authoritarian governments with no pretence of democracy - Moscow, Istanbul, Vienna, Rome (the Catholic church) - and so were to be implemented laxly or ignored where possible.
++++++++++++++
That's a very interesting observation. Essentially, your job as head of part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire was to dilute as much as possible the instructions from the centre. You'd probably spend hours working out what the absolute minimum level of compliance was required to avoid getting you into trouble with your superiors.
While in the UK, we've had a policy of trying to work out what exactly Brussels has meant, and tried to stretch it maximally so as to make sure that we'd been good boys.
National Coalition Party (centre-right) 20.6%...should be 3 seats (unchanged_) Social Democrats 16.4%...2 seats (=) Centre Party 14.1%...2 seats (-1) Greens 13.7%...2 seats (+1) True Finns 13.2%..2 seats (=) Left 7.3%...1 seat (=) Swedish People's Party of Finland 5.9%...1 seats (=) Christian Democrats 5.3%...0 seats
> @IanB2 said: > Anyone who has £5000 sitting in an instant access account and is willing to trust BF with it doesn’t need £5
Obviously I'm talking about all the geniuses on here who continually make money with their predictions, have over 5k sat in BF ready to withdraw. Might as well grab the free money. Should be paid out by this time tomorrow.
> Lots of people end their career on £75k? Are you having a giraffe? That’s about the 97th percentile gross salary.
To be clear, if your career starts @ 21 on a graduate salary of £35k then it probably has the potential to top out at £75k or more I would imagine.
Obviously most people are not on those kind of salaries (I’m certainly not!) but I was simply pointing out that the Times has probably chosen the worst possible corner case for their £179k figure & not something that’s likely to be experiences by the vast majority of graduates. If you earn enough to end up paying 179k in graduate tax then I suspect you’ve still done pretty well in the grand scheme of things...
2014 was with a party organisation and structure behind him
2019 does have a different feel to it
Trying to deny that it is a significant result seems to misunderstand the gravity of the situation with rare in right now.
It isn't a good thing that TBP is going to score a success here. But it cannot easily be dismissed and should not be ignored.
There is clearly something behind TBP. No-one has so far found out what. Similarly, it was only after the referendum that the scale and professionalism of Leave's backroom became evident.
Isn’t there something behind every party? You make it sound so sinister. What is interesting is that it was built up in a few months.
It's been built up in a few months without anyone noticing. There haven't been massive "chip in £50 to keep Brexit" appeals. It's not necessarily any more sinister than party funding generally is, but it's an untold story, and if TBP do sweep the board tonight then there's going to be a lot of interest in telling it.
> @Black_Rook said: > > @Stereotomy said: > > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll? > > I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow?
> @rcs1000 said: > > While in the UK, we've had a policy of trying to work out what exactly Brussels has meant, and tried to stretch it maximally so as to make sure that we'd been good boys. --------
Or we've had a policy of trying to smuggle as much of what we want to do domestically into any European-inspired legislation so that we can blame Brussels if it's unpopular.
Comments
> > @Byronic said:
> > This is interesting and true.
> >
>
> Labour's recovery in 2017 had more to do with Brexit and less to do with Corbyn than Corbyn's acolytes want to believe.
At the same time, he did have a clear recovery among some C2DE voters, and even some movement from northern UKIP voters back towards Labour.
> they add the EU Parliament group next to the party name
>
> EPP=People's Party
>
> S&D= Social Democrats
>
> ALDE= Liberals
>
> G/EFA= Greens and friends
>
> ECR= Conservative and Reformists
>
> GUE= Left of socialists, commies, etc
>
> (EFDD= Europe of Freedom (Farage, etc)
>
> ENF= LePen, Salvini, etc
>
> NI= no groups<
+++++
Grazie!
> We really are the only ones in the E.U who follow the damn rules.
+++++++++++++++++++
Like most things EU related, it's a bit more complex than that. Our rules are way more prescriptive than the fairly bland EU directive.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132695619737456640
> some random letters from Croatia
>
> https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132695619737456640
Will Labour have SaD after it’s name when they report the UK results?
> "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years."
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s
>
> This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life.
>
> I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
Those numbers seem out of line with the calculations on https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/student-loan-repayment-calculator
which assume that someone starting on £35k finishes their career at £75k after 30 years and ends up paying £53k - a far cry from £179k & about 3% of their total income.
The whole point of the system is that it’s really a graduate tax in disguise - you’re not meant to 'pay off the loan'. 3% seems within the bounds of reasonableness for such a tax I would have thought.
That brings the maximum interest amount down to about £400 per year from £3k per year at the moment.
> > @Byronic said:
> > This is interesting and true.
> >
>
> Labour's recovery in 2017 had more to do with Brexit and less to do with Corbyn than Corbyn's acolytes want to believe.
Absolutely right. I voted LAB at GE2017 in a seat gained by the party and it drives me crazy when the cultists claim the 12m+ votes were all for the anointed one.
> EFDD is just Brexit Party and 5 *, ENF is the rest of the hardish right (UKIP, Le Pen, Salvini)
> ECR is the Tories and not much else I think.
So just not much else then.
> Can CON and LAB both go sub 10%?
In theory? Yes. In practice? Let's not get over-excited.
Most of the results should be in by tomorrow morning, then we'll know.
It is not acceptable - to us - for reactionary right wing politicians to pretend they care about the proles while at the same time engaging in a major effort to fuck them over.
Perhaps I should apologise but I won't. It's just the way we are around here.
> Anyone who voted Tory or Labour in this election should hang their head in shame. When a quasi-referendum comes along, what can possibly be achieved by voting ‘don’t know’?
I have no shame in voting conservative as I believed, and still do, TM deal achieved brexit and I have no intention of giving credence to Farage
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132697592494776321
> > @IanB2 said:
> > We should remember that the LibDem good news stories that are filtering through via Twitter are coming from areas where LibDems are active enough to be sending people to watch the counts. Which will be by far a minority of UK counting halls.
>
> London in other words - which seems to be the only place where we have any concrete reports but admittedly not from outer London more leave inclined areas like Bexley Havering Hillingdon Barking and Dagenham etc
>
> Bar Cheshire east is there any firm info from outside the north and south circular roads?
I am looking at the South West to see whether the Lib Dems are back in the game. This region was as close to a heartland as they had. Bad results here will mean the old feeling betrayed Lib Dem voter may not be back at all, but a new dynamic is playing out.
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > some random letters from Croatia
> >
> > https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132695619737456640
>
> Will Labour have SaD after it’s name when they report the UK results?
I assume the ZZ party are fairly nailed on for bottom of the ballot paper.
> > @MaxPB said:
> > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years."
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s
> >
> > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life.
> >
> > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
>
> Those numbers seem out of line with the calculations on https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/student-loan-repayment-calculator
>
> which assume that someone starting on £35k finishes their career at £75k after 30 years and ends up paying £53k - a far cry from £179k & about 3% of their total income.
>
> The whole point of the system is that it’s really a graduate tax in disguise - you’re not meant to 'pay off the loan'. 3% seems within the bounds of reasonableness for such a tax I would have thought.
If it's a tax, what on earth is the justification for making it regressive past a certain income level? Why am I going to end up paying less than people who earn less than me?
> > @MaxPB said:
> > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years."
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s
> >
> > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life.
> >
> > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
>
> You were warned.
>
> I know that because I warned the PB Tories myself. Repeatedly.
>
> That Cameron and Osborne decided to triple lock pensions at the same time as tripling tuition fees emphasised how young graduates were viewed by the Conservative party.
>
> And if there was any lingering doubt the Conservative preference for higher house prices rather than higher home ownership ended it.
>
> If the Conservatives want to find young voters in future they will have to look northwards where there are fewer graduates and more affordable housing.
May is set to reduce the maximum fees for uni to £7k in one of her last acts as PM and Tory councils are building more houses under local plans despite NIMBY objections.
However you are right and I expect the Tories to do far better in the Midlands and even the North tonight than they will do in London
Britain Elects have just published THIS
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132697981780725775
Given that, according to their prior tweet, they are about to publish their most authoritative prediction yet, why would they publish this article and risk looking utter fools, just forty minutes before their prediction??
Have Labour done much better than we think?
Eeek!
> As usual, we're the only country in Europe following the rules, in this case on not releasing results until 10pm.
Sums up the last 46 years.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @MaxPB said:
> > > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years."
> > >
> > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s
> > >
> > > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life.
> > >
> > > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
> >
> > You were warned.
> >
> > I know that because I warned the PB Tories myself. Repeatedly.
> >
> > That Cameron and Osborne decided to triple lock pensions at the same time as tripling tuition fees emphasised how young graduates were viewed by the Conservative party.
> >
> > And if there was any lingering doubt the Conservative preference for higher house prices rather than higher home ownership ended it.
> >
> > If the Conservatives want to find young voters in future they will have to look northwards where there are fewer graduates and more affordable housing.
>
> May is set to reduce the maximum fees for uni to £7k in one of her first acts as PM and Tory councils are building more houses under local plans despite NIMBY objections.
>
> However you are right and I expect the Tories to do far better in the Midlands and even the North tonight than they will do in London
Was that "one of her first acts as PM" a Freudian slip?
> This is interesting and true.
>
> https://twitter.com/francessmith/status/1132676306972434434
>
>
>
> There was a large anti-Brexit vote for Lab last time. In middle class big house areas. It was a protest plus no one thought he would win. Now that Jezza's intentions have become clear , or rather unclear, and it is in the realms of the possible that Lab could win, I don't see that vote staying with him.
That's true, but it's important to note that he did get new C2DE Brexit-tendency voters, too.
I think what he got was a very unstable coalition of pro-nationalisation working class voters with metropolitan liberals angry about Europe. "Mondeo man" swing voters and middle england were less in the picture. He may only have one half of the coalition left, if he's not careful.
A good old bit of civil service gold plating...
+++++++++++++++
IIRC, the wording is something along the lines of "no results are to be released until the conclusion of the election".
Which some countries have codified as "exit polls are fine, but full results require every county to have finished voting", while others have gone for "release 'em as soon as *we've* finished voting", while the UK has taken it to mean "nothing election related of any kind until after every EU country's election is over."
> I reckon BXP will have won the vote handily in Stockton... entirely cultural now - people don't give a shit about the economics.
I was just saying this to my brother......
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > > @MaxPB said:
> > > > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years."
> > > >
> > > > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s
> > > >
> > > > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life.
> > > >
> > > > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
> > >
> > > You were warned.
> > >
> > > I know that because I warned the PB Tories myself. Repeatedly.
> > >
> > > That Cameron and Osborne decided to triple lock pensions at the same time as tripling tuition fees emphasised how young graduates were viewed by the Conservative party.
> > >
> > > And if there was any lingering doubt the Conservative preference for higher house prices rather than higher home ownership ended it.
> > >
> > > If the Conservatives want to find young voters in future they will have to look northwards where there are fewer graduates and more affordable housing.
> >
> > May is set to reduce the maximum fees for uni to £7k in one of her first acts as PM and Tory councils are building more houses under local plans despite NIMBY objections.
> >
> > However you are right and I expect the Tories to do far better in the Midlands and even the North tonight than they will do in London
>
> Was that "one of her first acts as PM" a Freudian slip?
'Last acts as PM' apologies and corrected
> There was a large anti-Brexit vote for Lab last time. In middle class big house areas. It was a protest plus no one thought he would win. Now that Jezza's intentions have become clear , or rather unclear, and it is in the realms of the possible that Lab could win, I don't see that vote staying with him.
Always worth remembering, whenever we get to the next GE. I suspect that a fair fraction of the Labour vote in 2017 only backed Corbyn because they had had their heads pumped full of polling trash by broadcasters and concluded that he had no chance of winning.
Labour ought to get a lot more scrutiny in the next campaign, and I doubt that its ideas on, for example, partial expropriation of utilities will do especially well.
Nasty, expensive, horrid electricity providers today. Your house tomorrow.
> This is interesting and true.
>
> https://twitter.com/francessmith/status/1132676306972434434
Why should I as a Labour Remainer stay loyal to a party that has sat on the fence on the most important political issue for the last 50 years .
80% of the members want a second vote .
Over 70% of Labour voters now want to Remain .
Who is being disloyal to who .
> @MaxPB said:
> A good old bit of civil service gold plating...
>
> +++++++++++++++
>
> IIRC, the wording is something along the lines of "no results are to be released until the conclusion of the election".
>
> Which some countries have codified as "exit polls are fine, but full results require every county to have finished voting", while others have gone for "release 'em as soon as *we've* finished voting", while the UK has taken it to mean "nothing election related of any kind until after every EU country's election is over."
Probably how just about every EU directive has been implemented here
> I reckon BXP will have won the vote handily in Stockton... entirely cultural now - people don't give a shit about the economics.
We have a pretty good idea how the strongly Remain and strongly Leave areas will vote.
The interesting thing will be to see what happens in the 50/50 places, like Birmingham, Southampton, Leeds, Newcastle, Swansea, etc.
I am looking at the South West to see whether the Lib Dems are back in the game. This region was as close to a heartland as they had. Bad results here will mean the old feeling betrayed Lib Dem voter may not be back at all, but a new dynamic is playing out.
++++++++++++++
While that's true, it's also true that the SW is among the most Eurosceptic areas of the UK. One would therefore expect that the LDs would do less well there than in areas where Remain is strong.
(Before the 2017 General Election, I accused the LDs of having a SW London, not a SW England strategy. And I think that remains true.)
> > @TOPPING said:
> > This is interesting and true.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/francessmith/status/1132676306972434434
> >
> >
> >
> > There was a large anti-Brexit vote for Lab last time. In middle class big house areas. It was a protest plus no one thought he would win. Now that Jezza's intentions have become clear , or rather unclear, and it is in the realms of the possible that Lab could win, I don't see that vote staying with him.
>
> That's true, but it's important to note that he did get new C2DE Brexit-tendency voters, too.
>
> I think what he got was a very unstable coalition of pro-nationalisation working class voters with metropolitan liberals angry about Europe. "Mondeo man" swing voters and middle england were less in the picture. He may only have one half of the coalition left, if he's not careful.
Or neither. It is fortunate it is Farage and not Galloway or the RCP leading BP.
>
> I think what he got was a very unstable coalition of pro-nationalisation working class voters with metropolitan liberals angry about Europe. "Mondeo man" swing voters and middle england were less in the picture. He may only have one half of the coalition left, if he's not careful.
------
He may end up with neither half. Labour look like a Remain party in pro-Brexit areas and a Brexit party in pro-Remain areas.
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > @MaxPB said:
> > A good old bit of civil service gold plating...
> >
> > +++++++++++++++
> >
> > IIRC, the wording is something along the lines of "no results are to be released until the conclusion of the election".
> >
> > Which some countries have codified as "exit polls are fine, but full results require every county to have finished voting", while others have gone for "release 'em as soon as *we've* finished voting", while the UK has taken it to mean "nothing election related of any kind until after every EU country's election is over."
>
> Probably how just about every EU directive has been implemented here
And is why we voted LEAVE.
"TAKE BACK CONTROL.......FROM WHITEHALL".
> > @MaxPB said:
>
> > "It is a crackpot situation that sees interest spiral out of control. Take this example: a graduate with a starting salary of £25,000 and average pay rises will only ever repay £19,000 of debt, while one who starts on £35,000 would repay £179,000 and still owe money when loans are wiped out after 30 years."
>
> >
>
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-university-tuition-fees-to-7-500-and-slash-interest-on-student-loans-review-n8lbkhz3s
>
> >
>
> > This is why young middle class graduates will never vote Tory. We've screwed them for life.
>
> >
>
> > I really feel so lucky that I went to university when fees were manageable.
>
>
>
> You were warned.
>
>
>
> I know that because I warned the PB Tories myself. Repeatedly.
>
>
>
> That Cameron and Osborne decided to triple lock pensions at the same time as tripling tuition fees emphasised how young graduates were viewed by the Conservative party.
>
>
>
> And if there was any lingering doubt the Conservative preference for higher house prices rather than higher home ownership ended it.
>
>
>
> If the Conservatives want to find young voters in future they will have to look northwards where there are fewer graduates and more affordable housing.
>
> I think the only way to handle this now will be to go down the road of debt forgiveness, overpayment refunds alongside the new proposals to limit fees to £7.5k and interest to 1.5%.
>
> That brings the maximum interest amount down to about £400 per year from £3k per year at the moment.
I think student loans are going to start impacting government finance figures now.
If so then governments have little to lose in not sorting out the mess.
> > @Phil said:
> > The whole point of the system is that it’s really a graduate tax in disguise - you’re not meant to 'pay off the loan'. 3% seems within the bounds of reasonableness for such a tax I would have thought.
>
> If it's a tax, what on earth is the justification for making it regressive past a certain income level? Why am I going to end up paying less than people who earn less than me?
I believe (but don’t actually know) that the contortions over the system arose out of a desire to a) ensure that non-UK EU students would be on the hook for the fees and b) achieving a compromise between Conservative desires for a US-style fee system & the LibDems insistence on neutering the worst aspects of that system.
That the outcome is imperfect should be no surprise whatsoever, but effectively what we’ve got is a graduate tax we can legally impose on non-UK citizens (if not necessarily practically impose...) with some very odd warts as a result of those compromises.
That the very well paid end up paying less than the merely well off is definitely one of those warts.
> > @Byronic said:
> > This is interesting and true.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/francessmith/status/1132676306972434434
>
> Why should I as a Labour Remainer stay loyal to a party that has sat on the fence on the most important political issue for the last 50 years .
>
> 80% of the members want a second vote .
>
> Over 70% of Labour voters now want to Remain .
>
> Who is being disloyal to who .
--------------------------------------------
Presumably (and subject to confirmation) they aren't Labour voters now.
> There's a free fiver to be had on Betfair if you think the Brexit Party will get at least 15% of the vote. Which they will, of course.
>
> Shame you have to lodge £5000 to get it....
That's why I haven't taken it. I thought some of the more successful folks on here could grab it. Maybe not worth their time to stoop down and pick up pennies off the floor though
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > This is interesting and true.
> > >
> >
> > Labour's recovery in 2017 had more to do with Brexit and less to do with Corbyn than Corbyn's acolytes want to believe.
>
> Absolutely right. I voted LAB at GE2017 in a seat gained by the party and it drives me crazy when the cultists claim the 12m+ votes were all for the anointed one.
Me too. Hopefully tonight might be the beginning of the cultists rude awakening
> I've taken a few little nibbles here and there on Corbyn's imminent (political) demise. There are a few ways to this playing out, and I think it's coming soon.<
+++++
Also factor in the multiple well-sourced reports that he's tired and bored and dislikes the job. Supposedly it is Milne, McDonnel and McCluskey who have so far persuaded him to stay on, against his own wishes. They want him to remain in situ, until they can find a worthy successor.
And he is really quite old.
"TAKE BACK CONTROL.......FROM WHITEHALL".
++++++++++++++++
When we're eventually gone, it would be extremely interesting to take 100 directives, and see how they were implemented in local law in each of the EU countries. I suspect you'd see an extremely wide variance, but with the UK pretty much always being the outlier.
Lots of people top out their careers at that level. Combination of there not being that many slots at higher pay grades & just not wanting the aggravation.
I imagine the Times has chosen the worst possible case for their £179k example; what’s that cost as a percentage of lifetime pay?
The programmer in me wonders if it is some kind of wildcard (bit like Labour on Brexit)
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > This is interesting and true.
> > > >
> > >
> > > Labour's recovery in 2017 had more to do with Brexit and less to do with Corbyn than Corbyn's acolytes want to believe.
> >
> > Absolutely right. I voted LAB at GE2017 in a seat gained by the party and it drives me crazy when the cultists claim the 12m+ votes were all for the anointed one.
>
> Me too. Hopefully tonight might be the beginning of the cultists rude awakening<
++++
I have a number of Corbynite friends. They used to be very vocal in their support of him, now they are quiet to the point of apathy. His attitude to Brexit has been the clincher.
For all the fervent Corbynism on Twitter, and elsewhere, I suspect he might be down to his hardcore fanbase now. Tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands.
Apparently the Lib Dems are leading in Holborn and St Pancras!
"Can CON and LAB both go sub 10%?2
...............................................................
No.
IMHO Con 8-12% .. Lab 14-18%
> @JackW said:
> @Ave_it said:
>
> "Can CON and LAB both go sub 10%?2
>
> ...............................................................
>
> No.
>
> IMHO Con 8-12% .. Lab 14-18%
>
>
> @nunuone said:
> "TAKE BACK CONTROL.......FROM WHITEHALL".
>
> ++++++++++++++++
>
> When we're eventually gone, it would be extremely interesting to take 100 directives, and see how they were implemented in local law in each of the EU countries. I suspect you'd see an extremely wide variance, but with the UK pretty much always being the outlier.
I wonder how much of this is a consequence of history.
For most of Europe laws were something which were imposed on them by distant authoritarian governments with no pretence of democracy - Moscow, Istanbul, Vienna, Rome (the Catholic church) - and so were to be implemented laxly or ignored where possible.
> Is there any mechanism to get rid of Corbyn if Labour go sub-10%?
Nope.
> > Unless you work in a specific industry there's no way that the £75k finishing salary is realistic.
>
>
>
> Lots of people top out their careers at that level. Combination of there not being that many slots at higher pay grades & just not wanting the aggravation.
>
>
>
> I imagine the Times has chosen the worst possible case for their £179k example; what’s that cost as a percentage of lifetime pay?
>
> Lots of people end their career on £75k? Are you having a giraffe? That’s about the 97th percentile gross salary.
Well perhaps they do in the Camden bubble? No wonder ‘people’ are so ‘angry’ in Hampstead Belsize Park and Primrose HIll - life must be really tough there campaigning against the largest new luxury housing development blocking your view or Tesco or the co-op opening in your exclusive high street which might force your favourite charcuterie out of business!
> Word is Labour may be behind the LDs in Camden!!!<
+++
Er, yeah. We've been discussing it for the last three hours.
> @ralphmalph said:
> I am looking at the South West to see whether the Lib Dems are back in the game. This region was as close to a heartland as they had. Bad results here will mean the old feeling betrayed Lib Dem voter may not be back at all, but a new dynamic is playing out.
>
> ++++++++++++++
>
> While that's true, it's also true that the SW is among the most Eurosceptic areas of the UK. One would therefore expect that the LDs would do less well there than in areas where Remain is strong.
>
> (Before the 2017 General Election, I accused the LDs of having a SW London, not a SW England strategy. And I think that remains true.)
But is that, if one interprets it in a broader cultural rather than narrow geographical sense, such a bad thing (taking into account their positioning/natural inclination as a strong Europhile party?)
I'm not suggesting that the Lib Dems neglect any part of the country, but they're likely to have more joy targeting St Albans than St Austell, surely?
Sadiq Khan must be getting a bit worried
> Word is Labour may be behind the LDs in Camden!!!
That seems almost a certainty.
Given we have already seen Shami being sent out today to demand a VONC, they are still pushing the GE card as their priority.
Only once that has failed will they consider a shift.
And it will be too late as it will be seen for what it is - opportunistic and insincere
>
> I really wish Europe Elects (who are very informative) would simply add a descriptor to each party - right, centre right, Green, far left, etc. At the moment these tweets looks like a rather thick alphabet soup and they make my brain hurt.
From left to right:
GUE=far left/greens
S&D=centre-left (social democrats)
EFA=non-leftist Greens
ALDE=liberals
EPP=centre-right (Christian Democrats)
ECR=right (Tories and misc allies)
EFDD=further right (Farage and friends)
ENF=far right (French National Front and friends)
The key ones to look out for are EPP (dominant up to now - Merkel et al), S&D (mainstream left), ALDE (liberals) and the EFDD/ENF far right.
> > @not_on_fire said:
> > > Unless you work in a specific industry there's no way that the £75k finishing salary is realistic.
> >
> >
> >
> > Lots of people top out their careers at that level. Combination of there not being that many slots at higher pay grades & just not wanting the aggravation.
> >
> >
> >
> > I imagine the Times has chosen the worst possible case for their £179k example; what’s that cost as a percentage of lifetime pay?
> >
> > Lots of people end their career on £75k? Are you having a giraffe? That’s about the 97th percentile gross salary.
>
> Well perhaps they do in the Camden bubble? No wonder ‘people’ are so ‘angry’ in Hampstead Belsize Park and Primrose HIll - life must be really tough there!
The last three you mentioned are clearly affluent, rather than middle-class. Large swathes of inner London have become educated and generally left-leaning middle class, without being at the very top-end affluent.
> > @Byronic said:
> >
> > I really wish Europe Elects (who are very informative) would simply add a descriptor to each party - right, centre right, Green, far left, etc. At the moment these tweets looks like a rather thick alphabet soup and they make my brain hurt.
>
> From left to right:
> GUE=far left/greens
> S&D=centre-left (social democrats)
> EFA=non-leftist Greens
> ALDE=liberals
> EPP=centre-right (Christian Democrats)
> ECR=right (Tories and misc allies)
> EFDD=further right (Farage and friends)
> ENF=far right (French National Front and friends)
>
> The key ones to look out for are EPP (dominant up to now - Merkel et al), S&D (mainstream left), ALDE (liberals) and the EFDD/ENF far right. <
+++++
Ta
> @Floater said:
> > @Foxy said:
> > After my visit to the pub, I reveal my forecast.
> >
> > 33% Turnout
> >
> > 31% BXP
> > 21% LD
> > 14% Con
> > 12% Lab
> > 10% Green
> > 4% CHUK
> > 4% UKIP
> > 4% Other
> >
> >
>
> That's a joke right?
>
> Labour below tories?
>
> Can't see it.
Yes, I can see it is not obvious, but that is where my East Midlands anecdata leads.
I see a low turnout election, but there are a fair number of unhappy Tory loyalists who either back May or the deal. I think few Lab voters will turnout, but those voting tactically will do so, and most will go LD.
Any one else keen to forecast?
> So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll?
I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
For most of Europe laws were something which were imposed on them by distant authoritarian governments with no pretence of democracy - Moscow, Istanbul, Vienna, Rome (the Catholic church) - and so were to be implemented laxly or ignored where possible.
++++++++++++++
That's a very interesting observation. Essentially, your job as head of part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire was to dilute as much as possible the instructions from the centre. You'd probably spend hours working out what the absolute minimum level of compliance was required to avoid getting you into trouble with your superiors.
While in the UK, we've had a policy of trying to work out what exactly Brussels has meant, and tried to stretch it maximally so as to make sure that we'd been good boys.
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132697592494776321
>
>
>
> CON maj nailed on?
Possibly not :-)
half counted
National Coalition Party (centre-right) 20.6%...should be 3 seats (unchanged_)
Social Democrats 16.4%...2 seats (=)
Centre Party 14.1%...2 seats (-1)
Greens 13.7%...2 seats (+1)
True Finns 13.2%..2 seats (=)
Left 7.3%...1 seat (=)
Swedish People's Party of Finland 5.9%...1 seats (=)
Christian Democrats 5.3%...0 seats
> Word is Labour may be behind the LDs in Camden!!!
>
> David's just turned over Goliath!
Bollocks to Brexit!
> Anyone who has £5000 sitting in an instant access account and is willing to trust BF with it doesn’t need £5
Obviously I'm talking about all the geniuses on here who continually make money with their predictions, have over 5k sat in BF ready to withdraw. Might as well grab the free money. Should be paid out by this time tomorrow.
To be clear, if your career starts @ 21 on a graduate salary of £35k then it probably has the potential to top out at £75k or more I would imagine.
Obviously most people are not on those kind of salaries (I’m certainly not!) but I was simply pointing out that the Times has probably chosen the worst possible corner case for their £179k figure & not something that’s likely to be experiences by the vast majority of graduates. If you earn enough to end up paying 179k in graduate tax then I suspect you’ve still done pretty well in the grand scheme of things...
> > @Stereotomy said:
> > So we don't get all the results immediately at 10, right? Do we get an exit poll?
>
> I don't believe so, but we should have all the declarations by about 3am, I believe, except for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't NI counting tomorrow?
>
> While in the UK, we've had a policy of trying to work out what exactly Brussels has meant, and tried to stretch it maximally so as to make sure that we'd been good boys.
--------
Or we've had a policy of trying to smuggle as much of what we want to do domestically into any European-inspired legislation so that we can blame Brussels if it's unpopular.