politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Many congratulations to those who called it right
Comments
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that guy in scotland that placed £30000 on tory OM must be happy, what odds did he get?0
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Emily Maitliss has spent the past 11 hours standing in front of the cameras looking as if she wants to sob uncontrollably....0
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Is Ken Livingstone feeling OK? Sounds utterly deluded on LBC right now.0
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7-1kjohnw said:that guy in scotland that placed £30000 on tory OM must be happy, what odds did he get?
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Indeed. The Conservatives have won a brilliant victory. However, the first session of Parliament must see the passage of a bill providing for a referendum on Europe and a constitutional bill on Scotland. With the Conservatives' perilously small majority, passing one will be an uphill struggle. Passing two will require serious commitment.rcs1000 said:Although it will seriously discourage defections.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015#Final_predictions_before_the_vote
Look how wrong they were..........
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Agreed.rcs1000 said:Gutted to see Huppert fail in Cambridge
Many good LibDems have been destroyed by Clegg's ambition.
Yet Clegg survives and will get himself some big job elsewhere.
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Another step closer to the absolute majority.AndyJS said:Chris Williamson defeated in Derby North by 41 votes:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140006620 -
Watching Look North it's interesting the divergence - Labour increased their majority in Stockton North, Tories increased their majority in Stockton South0
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It fails the smell test.Philip_Thompson said:
No its not. In other words an average of 87.5% did not want a UKIP candidate to represent them across the country.TOPPING said:Whichever way you look at it, 12.5% and one seat (maybe two), is a shocking way to run politics.
Each constituency got its choice.0 -
4-1 I think.kjohnw said:that guy in scotland that placed £30000 on tory OM must be happy, what odds did he get?
Supposedly his son was trying to get the bet voided, claiming his father had dementia. I bet his son will be feeling sick if he succeeded.0 -
Why? This outcome was always to be expected for UKIP.not_on_fire said:Carswell must be feeling sick today.
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The Labour party is wholly dominated by TUs and is absurdly Londoncentric - it's losing it's connection with its old heartlands.0
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I can't help but wonder if he'll come back to the Tories if he can.not_on_fire said:
Carswell must be feeling sick today.
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Lib dem leadership contest could pretty much be decided by drawing straws.
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For you maybe. For me its working as designed.TOPPING said:
It fails the smell test.Philip_Thompson said:
No its not. In other words an average of 87.5% did not want a UKIP candidate to represent them across the country.TOPPING said:Whichever way you look at it, 12.5% and one seat (maybe two), is a shocking way to run politics.
Each constituency got its choice.
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Why does it appear that UKIP affected Labour more than the Tories ? I know that some within UKIP predicted this, but the polls were showing more Tories had switched to UKIP ?
The polling companies will have to think about their methods in finding out exactly what is happening around the country. The Tories spent much more money on campaigning before the election period started. The Lib Dems did not stand a chance, as they had little money. There was obviously a swing to the Tories and not just in the last 24 hours. Why did the polls not pick this up ?0 -
Goodnight, as it were, Mr. Eagles. Thanks for all your work overnight.0
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Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.0 -
Carswell is going to feel like a plonker when he returns to parliament.
I know he is heavily principled and all that but he caught a bus going in the opposition direction to the zeitgeist.0 -
I don't think he'd be welcome back now. And with a 3k majority the Tories would be very confident of regaining it next time.Plato said:I can't help but wonder if he'll come back to the Tories if he can.
not_on_fire said:Carswell must be feeling sick today.
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Maybe. I'm not sure magic money trees had much to do with this result. But Labour does have a serious existential problem, I agree.another_richard said:
Your problem is that Labour is now fully associated with magic money tree spending.SouthamObserver said:
That pretty much sums it up - though I suspect a centre left party shorn of Unite would attract a fair few hefty donations from sources that currently keep their wallets shut.Scott_P said:@paulmasonnews: Whole Labour inner circle knows problem: if New Lab stage coup Unite leaves and you get an English Syriza, possibly with more money than Lab
It wont gain extra votes until it loses that association and if it loses that association it will lose the votes who want magic money tree spending.
Of course the Conservatives also believe in magic money tree spending but they're not associated with it - so Conservative magic money tree spending is called 'austerity' or 'sound economic management' etc.
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Beers on him today, well done!!Stickytroll said:
7-1kjohnw said:that guy in scotland that placed £30000 on tory OM must be happy, what odds did he get?
I wonder if he had an insight on some internal polling....0 -
As someone who clearly has a brain has just said on the BBC news - there needs to be an investigation by the Market Research Society into the opinion pollsters.
Someone clearly without a brain is the aptly named Mr Reckless. He jumped a ship which was not sinking and onto one which was on fire.
I do not see Carswell staying in UKIP if Farage resigns and UKIP swing behind its current deputy leader and all the others of his ilk.0 -
Incidentally, the Tories will struggle to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998. A number of their backbenchers are strongly opposed led by the former Attorney General. They will have to get DUP support for reform.0
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Yeah, it's all a BBC conspiracy, eh? Is there anything the BBC aren't to blame for?Patrick said:
Serves them right for demonising anybody who expresses their real view if its different from theirs. I think one big learning emerging from this GE is the whole 'shy Tory / shy Kipper' thing. The 'middle ground' of public discourse is pushed to the left by the BBC, bien-pensant types. It is not actually the middle at all. The pollsters failed to spot this. Maybe they should read PB!TheKitchenCabinet said:
Labour middle-class activists thinking nice WWC people would never lie to them about voting Labour when they were actually supporting UKIPedmundintokyo said:
Wait for some more detail on what happened (especially exit poll detail). It may have just been a swing on the day - you only need 3% of all voters to switch to turn Con 33.5 - Lab 33.5 into Con 36.5 - Lab 30.5.another_richard said:
That pro-Labour swing in the opinion polls this week has totally f'cked the polling companies credibility.FrancisUrquhart said:Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.
Anecdotally, we've had Nick Palmer here reporting people who'd said they'd support Lab changing their minds, and Jack Straw was saying something similar on Sky earlier.
Like with a lot of things the public are right-wing on some issues (immigration, welfare) and left-wing on others (NHS). Thus, it's called the centre.0 -
@GuidoFawkes: BBC: Miliband to tell staff he's resigning shortly, will do it in public at 12 in speech.
Were you up for Ed?
Hell Yes !!!!0 -
BBC Licence Fee to be set within the next 12 months!!!!!
Cameron won't scrap it - but he could go for another 5 year freeze - or maybe a notional 1% cut each year?????0 -
They lost because maybe half of their voters went to Labour or Greens. How exactly would that have been balmed by licking up to the Tories? Isn't that just the kind of advice partisans always give to other parties?MarqueeMark said:Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.0 -
Presumably Rupert is now cancelling that ridiculous YouGov tracker poll he's been wasting his money on for the past five years?0
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Exactly. They lost overwhelmingly to the government party - had they been running on a crystal clear government platform that wouldn't have happened.MarqueeMark said:Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.0 -
Who was on here yesterday saying they wished they had 20,000 cash to put on the 'free money' 1.06 NOM?0
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I'm shocked at how small Carswell's majority is in Claton. Assumed he's be 20 points clear of the field.Flightpathl said:As someone who clearly has a brain has just said on the BBC news - there needs to be an investigation by the Market Research Society into the opinion pollsters.
Someone clearly without a brain is the aptly named Mr Reckless. He jumped a ship which was not sinking and onto one which was on fire.
I do not see Carswell staying in UKIP if Farage resigns and UKIP swing behind its current deputy leader and all the others of his ilk.0 -
EdM going
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Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 20s20 seconds ago
Miliband to make his announcement at 12 noon. Looks like a resignation announcement0 -
CON HOLD BEDFORD!!0
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Con HOLD BEDFORD0
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A great night politically there may never be one as good ever again, especially as it was so unexpected. However I always backed the Tories to do well in my area the East Midlands, Williamson losing my seat Derby North put the cream, icing, cherries the lot on a fine cake.
We have lost politicians I admire from all sides Ed Balls, Hughesy, Danny and Esther hopefully they can all get back at some stage.0 -
I am not sure that is the case. He has long argued for electoral reform (though I happen to disagree with him even after last night) and he now finds himself as a perfect example of what he feels is wrong with the system. UKIP and the Greens between them end up with almost a fifth of the vote and with 2 seats.Plato said:I can't help but wonder if he'll come back to the Tories if he can.
not_on_fire said:Carswell must be feeling sick today.
Now as I say I don't agree with him on moving to PR but in his mind this will be a perfect example of why it is needed.0 -
I should go to bed, but I don't want to!!dr_spyn said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 20s20 seconds ago
Miliband to make his announcement at 12 noon. Looks like a resignation announcement
Good news from Bedford 0 -
Con hold Bedford0
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BEDFORD for the CONs0
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Con hold Crewe0
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Con hold Bedford and Crewe.0
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Miliband to resign... as expected.0
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Stay up for Farage!RobD said:
I should go to bed, but I don't want to!!dr_spyn said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 20s20 seconds ago
Miliband to make his announcement at 12 noon. Looks like a resignation announcement
Good news from Bedford0 -
If you want to keep believing that delusion then good luck to you.another_richard said:
Agreed.rcs1000 said:Gutted to see Huppert fail in Cambridge
Many good LibDems have been destroyed by Clegg's ambition.
Yet Clegg survives and will get himself some big job elsewhere.0 -
Argh!Sandpit said:
Stay up for Farage!RobD said:
I should go to bed, but I don't want to!!dr_spyn said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 20s20 seconds ago
Miliband to make his announcement at 12 noon. Looks like a resignation announcement
Good news from Bedford0 -
Not a BBC conspiracy. Just the ignorance of Labour middle class types who think they know best.The_Apocalypse said:
Yeah, it's all a BBC conspiracy, eh? Is there anything the BBC aren't to blame for?Patrick said:
Serves them right for demonising anybody who expresses their real view if its different from theirs. I think one big learning emerging from this GE is the whole 'shy Tory / shy Kipper' thing. The 'middle ground' of public discourse is pushed to the left by the BBC, bien-pensant types. It is not actually the middle at all. The pollsters failed to spot this. Maybe they should read PB!TheKitchenCabinet said:
Labour middle-class activists thinking nice WWC people would never lie to them about voting Labour when they were actually supporting UKIPedmundintokyo said:
Wait for some more detail on what happened (especially exit poll detail). It may have just been a swing on the day - you only need 3% of all voters to switch to turn Con 33.5 - Lab 33.5 into Con 36.5 - Lab 30.5.another_richard said:
That pro-Labour swing in the opinion polls this week has totally f'cked the polling companies credibility.FrancisUrquhart said:Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.
Anecdotally, we've had Nick Palmer here reporting people who'd said they'd support Lab changing their minds, and Jack Straw was saying something similar on Sky earlier.
Like with a lot of things the public are right-wing on some issues (immigration, welfare) and left-wing on others (NHS). Thus, it's called the centre.0 -
I think getting elected on a mandate to do X and doing the exact polar opposite in govt was a stretch too far. That's what differentiated them from the Tories in govt. The Tories by and large did what they were expected to do.Philip_Thompson said:
Exactly. They lost overwhelmingly to the government party - had they been running on a crystal clear government platform that wouldn't have happened.MarqueeMark said:Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.0 -
Con hold Crewe0
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Always a good chance Labour would struggle to get over 30%. Those last couple of polls showing a bizarre last minute swing to Labour seem even more bizarre now. The pollsters should have listened to me and weighted Labour down due to the crackdown on electoral fraud.
Good night for UKIP, by elections and the next general will see them pick up more seats, the system works fine. The fact it was a tight election set them back.
The economy won it, just rewards after the careful stewardship so far. Apt Balls should have been made redundant.0 -
CONS HOLD Crewe & Nantwich too - LOL0
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Brilliant. Edging closer.Life_ina_market_town said:Con hold Bedford and Crewe.
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The move to 600 seats will make the system even less proportional, of course.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure that is the case. He has long argued for electoral reform (though I happen to disagree with him even after last night) and he now finds himself as a perfect example of what he feels is wrong with the system. UKIP and the Greens between them end up with almost a fifth of the vote and with 2 seats.Plato said:I can't help but wonder if he'll come back to the Tories if he can.
not_on_fire said:Carswell must be feeling sick today.
Now as I say I don't agree with him on moving to PR but in his mind this will be a perfect example of why it is needed.0 -
So will Salmond now be given a question at PMQs as third largest party?0
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Sitting on the opposition benches with the SNP..... That is going to be soul-destroying. But I suspect he will very largely vote with the Government. He should swallow his pride and ask to come back to the Tories. He would still have a role as a thinker.Fenster said:Carswell is going to feel like a plonker when he returns to parliament.
I know he is heavily principled and all that but he caught a bus going in the opposition direction to the zeitgeist.0 -
Well what a night.
Very disappointed of course.
Congratulations to the small number on here especially JackW who called it right.
Hope most people had a profitable betting evening.
I blew nearly all my EICIPM ((which turned out to mean Eds Idiotic Cameron Is PM!!) profits and finished just £35 up.
Except i owe the site £50 by the looks of it due to my Tissue Price bet LAB vote share being under 32.5% can someone PM me how i pay this please.
Lets see how the next 5 years turn out.
Lunch on TSE next week!!!0 -
I agree with that. I thought that Ed Miliband was far too cautious. He was trying not to frighten middle England, but then did not encourage Labours traditional supporters to go out to vote. Also in hindsight Labour not offering an EU referendum was a mistake, as Labour lost votes to UKIP.felix said:The Labour party is wholly dominated by TUs and is absurdly Londoncentric - it's losing it's connection with its old heartlands.
The trouble for Labour is whether they can raise enough funding without the Unions. They will need a new leader who concentrates on building up membership and activist numbers. For Labour to win in 2020, they will need to win large numbers of council seats around the country, as they will form the teams that campaign at elections.
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The Scottish cataclysm is entirely of Labour's own making. Gordon Brown started it with what he thought was a clever wheeze, and today his own former constituency, deliciously, has been stolen from under his nose..
His entitled pals lording (lairding?) it around rosette-on-a-pig-country aka Scotland's central belt... 'We own these votes'... were typified by the appalling Gorbals Mick and the Scottish party machine which had abused the Scottish electorate for generations. Their contempt for the people whom they so loudly and piously claimed to represent was disgusting. They were not the servants of their people. Their electors were their prisoners, their serfs, calculatedly mired for ever in dirigiste statism and welfare dependency for the convenience of the fanatical quasi Marxist and certainly statist Brown and his political kin. They deserve everything with which the Scottish people are rewarding them today. The Scots should never go back to what they have thrown off.
Any 'blame' attributed to anyone but Labour is ludicrous.
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Tories hold Bedford and Crewe & Nantwich.0
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I think the reaction of the audience at BBC Leaders QT was telling when Miliband was asked if labour spent too much and said 'no' - a sharp intake of breath combined with a low groan - the British are fair and are prepared to give those who recognise their mistakes a second chance - until Labour do, they won't.SouthamObserver said:
Maybe. I'm not sure magic money trees had much to do with this result. But Labour does have a serious existential problem, I agree.another_richard said:
Your problem is that Labour is now fully associated with magic money tree spending.SouthamObserver said:
That pretty much sums it up - though I suspect a centre left party shorn of Unite would attract a fair few hefty donations from sources that currently keep their wallets shut.Scott_P said:@paulmasonnews: Whole Labour inner circle knows problem: if New Lab stage coup Unite leaves and you get an English Syriza, possibly with more money than Lab
It wont gain extra votes until it loses that association and if it loses that association it will lose the votes who want magic money tree spending.
Of course the Conservatives also believe in magic money tree spending but they're not associated with it - so Conservative magic money tree spending is called 'austerity' or 'sound economic management' etc.0 -
Mr. 09, prior to 2010, the Lib Dems got two every PMQs as a matter of course.0
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Let me just leave this gem here:Slackbladder said:Miliband to resign... as expected.
compouter2 said:EICIPM :-)
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The Lib Dems took a hit on doing the polar opposite on tuition fees, yes. But they've gone much further down since that initial hit. Even 4.5 years ago the idea of 8 Lib Dems would have been considered fanciful.Jonathan said:
I think getting elected on a mandate to do X and doing the exact polar opposite in govt was a stretch too far. That's what differentiated them from the Tories in govt. The Tories by and large did what they were expected to do.Philip_Thompson said:
Exactly. They lost overwhelmingly to the government party - had they been running on a crystal clear government platform that wouldn't have happened.MarqueeMark said:Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.0 -
How about the idea that neither Labour middle class types nor Kipper WWC know best - that they both have fairly simplistic views of the world that don't acknowledge shades of grey?TheKitchenCabinet said:
Not a BBC conspiracy. Just the ignorance of Labour middle class types who think they know best.The_Apocalypse said:
Yeah, it's all a BBC conspiracy, eh? Is there anything the BBC aren't to blame for?Patrick said:
Serves them right for demonising anybody who expresses their real view if its different from theirs. I think one big learning emerging from this GE is the whole 'shy Tory / shy Kipper' thing. The 'middle ground' of public discourse is pushed to the left by the BBC, bien-pensant types. It is not actually the middle at all. The pollsters failed to spot this. Maybe they should read PB!TheKitchenCabinet said:
Labour middle-class activists thinking nice WWC people would never lie to them about voting Labour when they were actually supporting UKIPedmundintokyo said:
Wait for some more detail on what happened (especially exit poll detail). It may have just been a swing on the day - you only need 3% of all voters to switch to turn Con 33.5 - Lab 33.5 into Con 36.5 - Lab 30.5.another_richard said:
That pro-Labour swing in the opinion polls this week has totally f'cked the polling companies credibility.FrancisUrquhart said:Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.
Anecdotally, we've had Nick Palmer here reporting people who'd said they'd support Lab changing their minds, and Jack Straw was saying something similar on Sky earlier.
Like with a lot of things the public are right-wing on some issues (immigration, welfare) and left-wing on others (NHS). Thus, it's called the centre.0 -
another winner out of this is of course Murdoch and the Sun. picking the winners again,.0
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It would be utterly moronic to repeal the HRA. No-one will support it except kippers and idiotic Tories, So that's Carswell.Life_ina_market_town said:Incidentally, the Tories will struggle to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998. A number of their backbenchers are strongly opposed led by the former Attorney General. They will have to get DUP support for reform.
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I thought that would turn out to be a massive moment in the campaign. As it was, it seemed to barely register, but today's result suggests otherwise...CarlottaVance said:
I think the reaction of the audience at BBC Leaders QT was telling when Miliband was asked if labour spent too much and said 'no' - a sharp intake of breath combined with a low groan - the British are fair and are prepared to give those who recognise their mistakes a second chance - until Labour do, they won't.SouthamObserver said:
Maybe. I'm not sure magic money trees had much to do with this result. But Labour does have a serious existential problem, I agree.another_richard said:
Your problem is that Labour is now fully associated with magic money tree spending.SouthamObserver said:
That pretty much sums it up - though I suspect a centre left party shorn of Unite would attract a fair few hefty donations from sources that currently keep their wallets shut.Scott_P said:@paulmasonnews: Whole Labour inner circle knows problem: if New Lab stage coup Unite leaves and you get an English Syriza, possibly with more money than Lab
It wont gain extra votes until it loses that association and if it loses that association it will lose the votes who want magic money tree spending.
Of course the Conservatives also believe in magic money tree spending but they're not associated with it - so Conservative magic money tree spending is called 'austerity' or 'sound economic management' etc.
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I think the P stood for "parting", M stood for "midday".RobD said:
Let me just leave this gem here:Slackbladder said:Miliband to resign... as expected.
compouter2 said:EICIPM :-)
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EICINELOTO
Ed Is Crap Is Not Even Leader Of The Opposition0 -
Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.0 -
North and South of the borderSlackbladder said:another winner out of this is of course Murdoch and the Sun. picking the winners again,.
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Definite air of gloom on Hampstead Heath this morning.0
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4.5 days agoPhilip_Thompson said:
The Lib Dems took a hit on doing the polar opposite on tuition fees, yes. But they've gone much further down since that initial hit. Even 4.5 years ago the idea of 8 Lib Dems would have been considered fanciful.Jonathan said:
I think getting elected on a mandate to do X and doing the exact polar opposite in govt was a stretch too far. That's what differentiated them from the Tories in govt. The Tories by and large did what they were expected to do.Philip_Thompson said:
Exactly. They lost overwhelmingly to the government party - had they been running on a crystal clear government platform that wouldn't have happened.MarqueeMark said:Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.0 -
There is a certain satisfying symmetry to the Tories holding Bedford and the LibDems losing Twickenham - OGH was stuffed, vote-swap or not.....Plato said:CONS HOLD Crewe & Nantwich too - LOL
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The end of the Miliband era..thank f^ck..0
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It would be reasonable and sensible to repeal the 1998 Act. It has given far too much power to judges. The problem is that the Tories intend to replace it with something equally bad.Dair said:It would be utterly moronic to repeal the HRA. No-one will support it except kippers and idiotic Tories, So that's Carswell.
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Should have got rid of Clegg. Utterly toxic. Cable lost his seat because he didn't challenge him.Philip_Thompson said:
The Lib Dems took a hit on doing the polar opposite on tuition fees, yes. But they've gone much further down since that initial hit. Even 4.5 years ago the idea of 8 Lib Dems would have been considered fanciful.Jonathan said:
I think getting elected on a mandate to do X and doing the exact polar opposite in govt was a stretch too far. That's what differentiated them from the Tories in govt. The Tories by and large did what they were expected to do.Philip_Thompson said:
Exactly. They lost overwhelmingly to the government party - had they been running on a crystal clear government platform that wouldn't have happened.MarqueeMark said:Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.0 -
Peter Hitchens wrote an eloquent defence of FPTP, which I agree with. A PR elected second chamber makes sense though.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am not sure that is the case. He has long argued for electoral reform (though I happen to disagree with him even after last night) and he now finds himself as a perfect example of what he feels is wrong with the system. UKIP and the Greens between them end up with almost a fifth of the vote and with 2 seats.Plato said:I can't help but wonder if he'll come back to the Tories if he can.
not_on_fire said:Carswell must be feeling sick today.
Now as I say I don't agree with him on moving to PR but in his mind this will be a perfect example of why it is needed.0 -
But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.Purseybear said:Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.0 -
NHS?
Whilst everyone has been talking about the election may 89 year old relative was having 2 consultations in the same day (yesterday) for two different conditions and a is currently today getting a treatment to remove a suspected skin cancer 'mole'. Thats the day after the consultation.
Not the sort of tory NHS that the odious Coogan pretends.0 -
Thank GodPhilip_Thompson said:EICINELOTO
Ed Is Crap Is Not Even Leader Of The Opposition0 -
Tom Brake struggling to explain things on the local news. Talks about the rise of nationalism mentioning the SNP and Ukip. No mention of the Tories appeal to the English with scares about the SNP. The coalition is over, when are the Lib Dems going to take the gloves off and start bashing the Tories. If they want to be Tory-lite then they can satisfy themselves with where they are.0
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Destroyed his brother's career and split the family; for nothing.richardDodd said:The end of the Miliband era..thank f^ck..
He even had to get married. Unlucky...0 -
Con still +21
Any more Con seats at risk? Warwick only I think? And that looks unlikely.
Excellent chance of 331 if they get the 3 last LD seats.0 -
Also suggests the late swing to Con (assuming that's what happened) wasn't particularly tactical.rcs1000 said:
I'm shocked at how small Carswell's majority is in Claton. Assumed he's be 20 points clear of the field.Flightpathl said:As someone who clearly has a brain has just said on the BBC news - there needs to be an investigation by the Market Research Society into the opinion pollsters.
Someone clearly without a brain is the aptly named Mr Reckless. He jumped a ship which was not sinking and onto one which was on fire.
I do not see Carswell staying in UKIP if Farage resigns and UKIP swing behind its current deputy leader and all the others of his ilk.0 -
If you look at Labour's London success, it is actually only a North London success - South of the river bar Bermondsey, the Conservatives had the better night.0
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Labour line now could be.....
"Only 5 years to save the NHS"
Oh ?0 -
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Will there me modifications to the BJESUS methodology for 2020 ?bigjohnowls said:
Thank GodPhilip_Thompson said:EICINELOTO
Ed Is Crap Is Not Even Leader Of The Opposition0 -
Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.EPG said:
But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.Purseybear said:Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.0 -
22 seats left to declare. Apart from Thanet South - what's left?0
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They stood on one manifesto. Voting against a 3 line whip will finish their careers. Soubry?Life_ina_market_town said:Incidentally, the Tories will struggle to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998. A number of their backbenchers are strongly opposed led by the former Attorney General. They will have to get DUP support for reform.
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He should get two, as Clegg did pre-2010. The Lib Dems, by contrast, won't get any as of right. Indeed, they may shortly become close to invisible. I would not be at all surprised if they lost major party status off the back of this.marke09 said:So will Salmond now be given a question at PMQs as third largest party?
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