Re. that QT audience what was such a killer is that it was ordinary northerners ripping Miliband apart over that issue. It was probably the defining moment of the campaign because it wasn't coming from the posh boys, it was coming from 'people like us.'
Always a good chance Labour would struggle to get over 30%. Those last couple of polls showing a bizarre last minute swing to Labour seem even more bizarre now. The pollsters should have listened to me and weighted Labour down due to the crackdown on electoral fraud.
Good night for UKIP, by elections and the next general will see them pick up more seats, the system works fine. The fact it was a tight election set them back.
The economy won it, just rewards after the careful stewardship so far. Apt Balls should have been made redundant.
Something went really wrong there. The herding was a massive indicator.
Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.
But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.
Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.
Or if Cameron goes after 2017 it feels as a fresher, rejuvenated government.
Incidentally, the Tories will struggle to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998. A number of their backbenchers are strongly opposed led by the former Attorney General. They will have to get DUP support for reform.
They stood on one manifesto. Voting against a 3 line whip will finish their careers. Soubry?
Dominic Grieve, Jesse Norman and Ken Clarke will all vote against repeal.
Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.
If/when EdM resigns, they will need a caretaker - Harriet will do - and then pluck someone who was not associated in any way with the 1997-2010 regime - Liz Kendall has the right outlook and an inquiring mind and she would lead the party back towards the centre.
"I can't help but think Miliband and Balls refusal to acknowledge the mess they made of the economy has come back to haunt them."
I don't think that was it.
I didn't meet anyone who said they were voting Labour from the beginning of the campaign.
The more I read the polls the more out of touch I thought I was. I assumed there must be vast estates of people I never came into contact with.
It seemed so counter intuitive that people would vote for a pig in a poke when things were rolling along OK. It just isn't the British way. Why the polls didn't pick it up is a mystery.
(My kiss of death; Chuka Ummuna for new Labour leader.)
The Labour space agency says that its out-of-control campaign has burnt up as it re-entered the Earth's atmosphere.
Re-entry was over the Highlands, it said, and only a few fragments were expected to hit the Commons.
The leaderless campaign was launched from a stone slab on 28 April, but control was lost soon afterwards.
Labour space agency Hopealllostosmos said: "The BackToKinnock M-27M campaign ceased to exist at 05:04 Miliband time (02:04 GMT) on 8 May 2015. It entered the atmosphere... over the central part of the Highlands."
Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.
Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.
But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.
Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.
Or if Cameron goes after 2017 it feels as a fresher, rejuvenated government.
Really? Cameron by far is their biggest asset. Boris isn't a sure-fire bet to succeed and the likes of Osborne are walking electoral disasters.
Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.
I agree about Vince. A bad loser underneath his "elderly statesman" veneer. Having spent his time talking about nuking his partners, he got his just deserts for his duplicity and whining.
The Labour space agency says that its out-of-control campaign has burnt up as it re-entered the Earth's atmosphere.
Re-entry was over the Highlands, it said, and only a few fragments were expected to hit the Commons.
The leaderless campaign was launched from a stone slab on 28 April, but control was lost soon afterwards.
Labour space agency Hopealllostosmos said: "The BackToKinnock M-27M campaign ceased to exist at 05:04 Miliband time (02:04 GMT) on 8 May 2015. It entered the atmosphere... over the central part of the Highlands."
..... the first session of Parliament must see the passage of a bill providing for a referendum on Europe and a constitutional bill on Scotland. With the Conservatives' perilously small majority, passing one will be an uphill struggle. Passing two will require serious commitment.
Yes. But what happens to the attempts to pass those bills will be much clearer to the electorate now. As long as the Conservatives bring forward the bills to which they have committed the electorate will have a clear view of what people/parties blocked them. As long as the Conservatives themselves vote for the bills, they will be in the clear with the electorate. Won't they?
Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.
But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.
Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.
Or if Cameron goes after 2017 it feels as a fresher, rejuvenated government.
Really? Cameron by far is their biggest asset. Boris isn't a sure-fire bet to succeed and the likes of Osborne are walking electoral disasters.
Well we get to find out now. Doesn't always go so well. Brown, Home, Callaghan and Major were not exactly "fresh" three years in.
If he looks back at some of his posts, especially regarding how labour would do much better in the marginals and how polls showing any decent Tory leads were rogues, he will cringe.
I am not sure that is the case. He has long argued for electoral reform (though I happen to disagree with him even after last night) and he now finds himself as a perfect example of what he feels is wrong with the system. UKIP and the Greens between them end up with almost a fifth of the vote and with 2 seats.
Now as I say I don't agree with him on moving to PR but in his mind this will be a perfect example of why it is needed.
Peter Hitchens wrote an eloquent defence of FPTP, which I agree with. A PR elected second chamber makes sense though.
Don't be ridiculous. I often hear daft apologists for FPTP say this, but there's no way you can have a second chamber that's more democratically legitimate than the main chamber. Second chambers are usually non-proportional on purpose to ensure no-one questions the legitimacy of the main chamber.
Balls losing: Yay! Reckless losing: Yay! Nick losing: Yay!
I wonder how much Nick would have lost by if Soubry hadn't given up? The lady must have been in cruise control. ;-)
My concern about the pollsters seems to have been proved right. We're going to have to see some massive changes, but I cannot really see how they can improve things.
Roger - things are not rolling along okay. GDP per capita is below where it was in 2008. The current account deficit is at record levels. We are as a country borrowing more money from the rest of the world than ever. Osborne failed on his borrowing targets and failed on rebalancing the economy. Maybe Labour didn't think the public would listen to that message or they were afraid of getting their own record thrown back at them.
Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.
But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.
Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.
Or if Cameron goes after 2017 it feels as a fresher, rejuvenated government.
Really? Cameron by far is their biggest asset. Boris isn't a sure-fire bet to succeed and the likes of Osborne are walking electoral disasters.
Well we get to find out now. Doesn't always go so well. Brown, Home, Callaghan and Major were not exactly "fresh" three years in.
"I can't help but think Miliband and Balls refusal to acknowledge the mess they made of the economy has come back to haunt them."
I don't think that was it.
I didn't meet anyone who said they were voting Labour from the beginning of the campaign.
The more I read the polls the more out of touch I thought I was. I assumed there must be vast estates of people I never came into contact with.
It seemed so counter intuitive that people would vote for a pig in a poke when things were rolling along OK. It just isn't the British way. Why the polls didn't pick it up is a mystery.
(My kiss of death; Chuka Ummuna for new Labour leader.)
Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.
But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.
Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.
Or if Cameron goes after 2017 it feels as a fresher, rejuvenated government.
Really? Cameron by far is their biggest asset. Boris isn't a sure-fire bet to succeed and the likes of Osborne are walking electoral disasters.
Three to four years is a long time for someone else to emerge. People like Major, Blair or Cameron (or Miliband or IDS for less successful ones) were a long way below the radar that length of time before they became leader of their party.
Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.
I agree about Vince. A bad loser underneath his "elderly statesman" veneer. Having spent his time talking about nuking his partners, he got his just deserts for his duplicity and whining.
Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.
I agree about Vince. A bad loser underneath his "elderly statesman" veneer. Having spent his time talking about nuking his partners, he got his just deserts for his duplicity and whining.
Just got up logged on. It just keeps getting better that pernicious anti business old git has gone too. Southam I love you !!!! Can the day get better ?
The extra 12-13 seats the Tories got over the exit poll are vital. Having to do a confidence and supply with the DUP would have been electorally unpopular.
The Conservative backbenchers are now the most powerful politicians in Britain and Cameron won't be able to use the Lib Dems as an excuse to not implement traditional Tory policies. There will be a gap there for Labour to fill in the middle ground as the Tories go right.
My concern about the pollsters seems to have been proved right. We're going to have to see some massive changes, but I cannot really see how they can improve things.
One thing they must do is stop doing polls on a daily basis. Once a week for each of the companies is enough.
If - as they were - inaccurate on vote shares, then publishing daily polls is an attempt by the polls themselves and not those seeking election to set the mood music, to set the narrative. And that is wrong.
I am not sure that is the case. He has long argued for electoral reform (though I happen to disagree with him even after last night) and he now finds himself as a perfect example of what he feels is wrong with the system. UKIP and the Greens between them end up with almost a fifth of the vote and with 2 seats.
Now as I say I don't agree with him on moving to PR but in his mind this will be a perfect example of why it is needed.
Peter Hitchens wrote an eloquent defence of FPTP, which I agree with. A PR elected second chamber makes sense though.
Don't be ridiculous. I often hear daft apologists for FPTP say this, but there's no way you can have a second chamber that's more democratically legitimate than the main chamber. Second chambers are usually non-proportional on purpose to ensure no-one questions the legitimacy of the main chamber.
..... the first session of Parliament must see the passage of a bill providing for a referendum on Europe and a constitutional bill on Scotland. With the Conservatives' perilously small majority, passing one will be an uphill struggle. Passing two will require serious commitment.
Yes. But what happens to the attempts to pass those bills will be much clearer to the electorate now. As long as the Conservatives bring forward the bills to which they have committed the electorate will have a clear view of what people/parties blocked them. As long as the Conservatives themselves vote for the bills, they will be in the clear with the electorate. Won't they?
Do the public know what the Conservative policy on Scotland is?
Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.
I agree about Vince. A bad loser underneath his "elderly statesman" veneer. Having spent his time talking about nuking his partners, he got his just deserts for his duplicity and whining.
Cable personifies what went wrong with the Lib Dems. Rather than bargain hard then stick to the deal, they consistently rolled over and then tried to distance themselves, with the result that they looked neither capable or trustworthy.
BBC stating Tories now need 8 to win an overall majority
Epochal if that happens. They can then pass EVEL and remove Scotch votes from Westminster, leaving Cameron with 325-odd seats not of 650 but of 591. And then he can do what he likes.
My concern about the pollsters seems to have been proved right. We're going to have to see some massive changes, but I cannot really see how they can improve things.
One thing they must do is stop doing polls on a daily basis. Once a week for each of the companies is enough.
If - as they were - inaccurate on vote shares, then publishing daily polls is an attempt by the polls themselves and not those seeking election to set the mood music, to set the narrative. And that is wrong.
Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.
But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.
Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.
Or if Cameron goes after 2017 it feels as a fresher, rejuvenated government.
Really? Cameron by far is their biggest asset. Boris isn't a sure-fire bet to succeed and the likes of Osborne are walking electoral disasters.
Three to four years is a long time for someone else to emerge. People like Major, Blair or Cameron (or Miliband or IDS for less successful ones) were a long way below the radar that length of time before they became leader of their party.
Hardly, for example Blair and Brown were cited as future leaders before 92.
As an exercise in destructive futility Ed's leadership of the Labour party will take some beating.
I'm shocked at how badly Labour did.
They seem to have lost the aspirational voters. They piled up votes in shitholes and communities with large Asian majorities but struggled everywhere else. They've even performed without enthusiasm in their strongholds in Wales.
I know those on the left of the party don't want to hear it but they need to tap into Blair and find out how he won so many seats in better-off areas.
Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.
I agree about Vince. A bad loser underneath his "elderly statesman" veneer. Having spent his time talking about nuking his partners, he got his just deserts for his duplicity and whining.
Cable personifies what went wrong with the Lib Dems. Rather than bargain hard then stick to the deal, they consistently rolled over and then tried to distance themselves, with the result that they looked neither capable or trustworthy.
Quite. Much better to agree the deal and have everyone stick with it.
Vince Cable's loser speech was probably the least gracious of those made by high profile losers. He also did least well in hiding his disappointment. The tearful Tory who defeated him looked like she could not believe it.
I agree about Vince. A bad loser underneath his "elderly statesman" veneer. Having spent his time talking about nuking his partners, he got his just deserts for his duplicity and whining.
Cable personifies what went wrong with the Lib Dems. Rather than bargain hard then stick to the deal, they consistently rolled over and then tried to distance themselves, with the result that they looked neither capable or trustworthy.
This is the Tory analysis. The Lib Dems should have been nicer to the Tories, and let the Tories do more Tory things. But half their 2010 voters, at least, quit for the Greens and Labour, and a few went to Ukip and Conservative. How would being a Tory-enabler have helped that?
I think he is high quality Norman Lamb. The Lib Dems could coalesce around him and try to make a comeback fighting in by-elections.
I still believe the Lib Dems will bounce back from this.
I agree with that. Lamb is the right person not Farron.
Farron is not the right person for anything political. He is my MP and I constantly feel amazed that fellow voters have failed to see through this lightweight.
His top level is that of the measuring assistant in a Burton Tailoring store.
Comments
"Well, he tried..."
"I can't help but think Miliband and Balls refusal to acknowledge the mess they made of the economy has come back to haunt them."
I don't think that was it.
I didn't meet anyone who said they were voting Labour from the beginning of the campaign.
The more I read the polls the more out of touch I thought I was. I assumed there must be vast estates of people I never came into contact with.
It seemed so counter intuitive that people would vote for a pig in a poke when things were rolling along OK. It just isn't the British way. Why the polls didn't pick it up is a mystery.
(My kiss of death; Chuka Ummuna for new Labour leader.)
Think serious thinking on the left is required.
The Labour space agency says that its out-of-control campaign has burnt up as it re-entered the Earth's atmosphere.
Re-entry was over the Highlands, it said, and only a few fragments were expected to hit the Commons.
The leaderless campaign was launched from a stone slab on 28 April, but control was lost soon afterwards.
Labour space agency Hopealllostosmos said: "The BackToKinnock M-27M campaign ceased to exist at 05:04 Miliband time (02:04 GMT) on 8 May 2015. It entered the atmosphere... over the central part of the Highlands."
7/4 Chuka Umunna
5/2 Andy Burnham
3/1 Yvette Cooper
8/1 Dan Jarvis
12 David Miliband
7 counting this morning: Hexham, Berwick, Blyth Valley, Wansbeck, Warwick, Kenilworth, St Ives.
10 still counting from overnight: Wells, Devon West, Luton North, Luton South, Broadland, Thanet North, Thanet South, Devon Central, Beds NE, Harborough, Cotswolds.
Balls losing: Yay!
Reckless losing: Yay!
Nick losing: Yay!
I wonder how much Nick would have lost by if Soubry hadn't given up? The lady must have been in cruise control. ;-)
My concern about the pollsters seems to have been proved right. We're going to have to see some massive changes, but I cannot really see how they can improve things.
I am off to enjoy my retirement and will be interested to see how the next 5 years pan out.
@PickardJE: Andrew Rawnsley: "The Lib Dem MPs will all fit in one taxi."
I still believe the Lib Dems will bounce back from this.
@jennirsl: Remember - all party leaders; Cameron, Miliband, Clegg, Sturgeon, meet for VE day remembrance service this pm. Excruciating. #GE2015
Mike K - I'm afraid I will have to collect on our Kipper < 17% wager..
Piss easy Tory holds
Ed is Crap
and
Ed will never be Prime Minister.
Can the day get better ?
The Conservative backbenchers are now the most powerful politicians in Britain and Cameron won't be able to use the Lib Dems as an excuse to not implement traditional Tory policies. There will be a gap there for Labour to fill in the middle ground as the Tories go right.
If - as they were - inaccurate on vote shares, then publishing daily polls is an attempt by the polls themselves and not those seeking election to set the mood music, to set the narrative. And that is wrong.
Cotswolds, Devon Central, Broadland, Harborough, Hexham, Kenilworth, Devon West.
Does David Cameron?
ToriesForBurnham
ABICAWNBPM
Oh?....wait a minute ......everyone back on the battle bus.
They seem to have lost the aspirational voters. They piled up votes in shitholes and communities with large Asian majorities but struggled everywhere else. They've even performed without enthusiasm in their strongholds in Wales.
I know those on the left of the party don't want to hear it but they need to tap into Blair and find out how he won so many seats in better-off areas.
For some reason we only start counting in the morning. Both will be very easy Tory holds.
@bbclaurak: Judicious silence from potential Lab candidates on Twitter this morning - source tells me Chuka already doing a ring round
Losers: Lib Dems (ouch!), Labour, pollsters (although Murdoch and Ashcroft might be happy with the effects).
Kudos to Rod Crosby, rcs, Nabavi, and the few others who thought the Tories could do it.
IOS, if your Labour party managers have any sense you will get the boot. You were consistently rude and wrong about the campaign.
His top level is that of the measuring assistant in a Burton Tailoring store.
"Sorry about A erdeen south. EDI S HELD UP tho !"
I wrote you a congratulatory note upthread