Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
Amusing to see Ed Balls lose his seat. But I will always give him credit for sacking on the spot the despicable Sharon Shoesmith over the Baby P case. Now I know she got a big pay out in the end, but that was not his fault, and he actually did the right thing, even though our disgraceful legal system protects scum like Shoesmith.
We would rue the day when a politician can sack a public worker on a whim without due process. Sorry - but I totally disagree.
Okay, so maybe it wasn't done right. But I stand by my view of her and her ilk.
Congratulations to all those who did well commiserations to all those who did badly. I think the public usually get it right and realistically Ed wasn't really up to it. Nonetheless the personal always trumps everything else so particular commiserations to Nick Palmer a great contributer to this site to this site.
From a personal point of view the only result I really cared about was Edinburgh South which by the most extraordinary piece of good fortune Ian Murray managed to win.
Finally congratulations to Jack antifrank and Pulpstar for excelling at what the site's designed to do and to Mike and Eagle for making the contest so interesting
Well said Roger. And well done for sticking around and putting up with us gloating!
Feeling down but Cameron will be exposed without the Lib Dem cover.
326 is a majority in theory - but there will be attrition, as there always is. The problem for Cameron is that there is no party of significant numbers who can (or probably would) go with him. He also has major headaches in the Economy, the West Lothian Question, Scottish nationalism and the European Referendum.
The UK is probably much weaker now than it was 24 hours ago.
Congratulations to all those who did well commiserations to all those who did badly. I think the public usually get it right and realistically Ed wasn't really up to it. Nonetheless the personal always trumps everything else so particular commiserations to Nick Palmer a great contributer to this site.
From a personal point of view the only result I really cared about was Edinburgh South which by the most extraordinary piece of good fortune Ian Murray managed to win.
Finally congratulations to Jack antifrank and Pulpstar for excelling at what the site's designed to do and to Mike and Eagle for making the contest so interesting
Roger - where did it all go wrong ? You've lost the Rogerdamus touch !!!!
I heard your relly on the radio this a.m. came across well, but very strange to think he IS the Scottish Labour party in Westminster.
@VinnyITV: BREAKING:PM will go to the Palace and 1230 to meet the Queen and then make a statement back at Downing Street. He has not spoken to Ed M yet
Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.
The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
Yes indeed Southam, and I don't think they can do it. The Euro referendum has all the hallmarks of the event that will kill the Union. In my heart of hearts this result isn't a surprise although the scale goes beyond what I expected. The complete lack of enthusiasm did scream 1992, and the voters have gone for the devil they know.
Labour needs to reflect properly on where it went wrong and what it stands for in the C21, and take time to choose a new leader. Having a couple of credible female candidates would be a very good start. With a Nicola Sturgeon type in charge who could actually communicate with ordinary people, they could have been at parity in this election.
I'm afraid that the unions are a massive millstone round Labour's neck. They are backward looking and unwilling to challenge comfortable beliefs forged many decades ago. Labour needs to start again, but can't because of the unions.
I'm not sure I share this view but leaving that to one side, the Conservatives are up half a percentage point in votes and have swept to victory. This was won by Jim Messina and the voter-targetting boffins imo.
FPTP has swung back to favour the Tories, that is for sure; but Labour was never a credible alternative government and EdM was an abysmal leader. How does that change next time when the people who put Ed in charge carry so much weight?
Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
What interests me about opinion polls is that they were not mirroring my Tory stats. I was looking at tens of thousands of returns. I have bored you all with that the figures I had which said that Labour would only get 1% swing. So, I wonder why pollsters don't try to work with parties to discuss their stas.
Labour were also telling me the same thing; no swing to Labour essentially. And they were spilling the beans on postal votes, which they were saying showed no swing, in fact a swing agasint Labour.
Yet the pollsters weren't picking this up.
I was miserable all day yesterday because I started to believe the polls. I should have stuck with my door knocking stats.
Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.
The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
Yes indeed Southam, and I don't think they can do it. The Euro referendum has all the hallmarks of the event that will kill the Union. In my heart of hearts this result isn't a surprise although the scale goes beyond what I expected. The complete lack of enthusiasm did scream 1992, and the voters have gone for the devil they know.
Labour needs to reflect properly on where it went wrong and what it stands for in the C21, and take time to choose a new leader. Having a couple of credible female candidates would be a very good start. With a Nicola Sturgeon type in charge who could actually communicate with ordinary people, they could have been at parity in this election.
I'm afraid that the unions are a massive millstone round Labour's neck. They are backward looking and unwilling to challenge comfortable beliefs forged many decades ago. Labour needs to start again, but can't because of the unions.
I'm not sure I share this view but leaving that to one side, the Conservatives are up half a percentage point in votes and have swept to victory. This was won by Jim Messina and the voter-targetting boffins imo.
FPTP has swung back to favour the Tories, that is for sure; but Labour was never a credible alternative government and EdM was an abysmal leader. How does that change next time when the people who put Ed in charge carry so much weight?
what will unite do is the big question for labour. Can they carry the public whilst being in hock to the unions?
@bbclaurak: Sounds like Miliband will make a speech, resignation, some time late morning- lunch once he is back in London, will return to Party HQ first
Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
That's the response of a bitter loser - just like Labour speakers. It's much easier for them to do that than consider what they did wrong.
Morning all - am just catching up with an excellent set of threads as was at our local count holding up (almost literally) our local MP who had late attack of jitters.
Well done to rcs1000 (trust you have not been disinherited from the Smithson fortune), IOS, JamesM, Jack W, Aveit and Roger for their forecasts. The rest of you are consigned to sympathise with Balls and Cable.
The regional splits of %age votes for each party will be interesting and may give leads to this result.
Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.
The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
Yes indeed Southam, and I don't think they can do it. The Euro referendum has all the hallmarks of the event that will kill the Union. In my heart of hearts this result isn't a surprise although the scale goes beyond what I expected. The complete lack of enthusiasm did scream 1992, and the voters have gone for the devil they know.
Labour needs to reflect properly on where it went wrong and what it stands for in the C21, and take time to choose a new leader. Having a couple of credible female candidates would be a very good start. With a Nicola Sturgeon type in charge who could actually communicate with ordinary people, they could have been at parity in this election.
I'm afraid that the unions are a massive millstone round Labour's neck. They are backward looking and unwilling to challenge comfortable beliefs forged many decades ago. Labour needs to start again, but can't because of the unions.
I'm not sure I share this view but leaving that to one side, the Conservatives are up half a percentage point in votes and have swept to victory. This was won by Jim Messina and the voter-targetting boffins imo.
FPTP has swung back to favour the Tories, that is for sure; but Labour was never a credible alternative government and EdM was an abysmal leader. How does that change next time when the people who put Ed in charge carry so much weight?
Are you a member of the Labour party?
If you're not, then join, the Labour party needs the likes of you in it.
Well, I knew Labour would be comfortably beaten but this is a surprise. The Midlands and London are the two places I know, Scotland was easy, but I thought Labour would do better in the NW.
The Tories deserve to enjoy themselves this weekend, then it gets serious: they have a country to save. Let's hope it is not too late.
Yes indeed Southam, and I don't think they can do it. The Euro referendum has all the hallmarks of the event that will kill the Union. In my heart of hearts this result isn't a surprise although the scale goes beyond what I expected. The complete lack of enthusiasm did scream 1992, and the voters have gone for the devil they know.
Labour needs to reflect properly on where it went wrong and what it stands for in the C21, and take time to choose a new leader. Having a couple of credible female candidates would be a very good start. With a Nicola Sturgeon type in charge who could actually communicate with ordinary people, they could have been at parity in this election.
I'm afraid that the unions are a massive millstone round Labour's neck. They are backward looking and unwilling to challenge comfortable beliefs forged many decades ago. Labour needs to start again, but can't because of the unions.
I'm not sure I share this view but leaving that to one side, the Conservatives are up half a percentage point in votes and have swept to victory. This was won by Jim Messina and the voter-targetting boffins imo.
FPTP has swung back to favour the Tories, that is for sure; but Labour was never a credible alternative government and EdM was an abysmal leader. How does that change next time when the people who put Ed in charge carry so much weight?
Are you a member of the Labour party?
If you're not, then join, the Labour party needs the likes of you in it.
Would SO be welcome in the current labour party, or what the labour party might become?
Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.
That pro-Labour swing in the opinion polls this week has totally f'cked the polling companies credibility.
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.
Fairly obvious - The pollsters had picked up that Cameron was the preferred prime minister by 52% to 31%. That was presumably the fact that stopped tory leakage in the marginals. Where he wasn't liked (North East Mainly) Labour did pretty well. (And without that exit poll there would have been a lot of people with much shorter fingernails this morning.)
Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
That's the response of a bitter loser - just like Labour speakers. It's much easier for them to do that than consider what they did wrong.
Scotland won. 56 out of 59 MPs. Tories lost, Labour lost, Lib Dems need to be removed from being a "Major Party". UKIP need to be removed from being a "Major Party". Greens did on. SNP won the election.
There has been a significant change off circumstances.
Balls losing probably makes Yvette a much stronger candidate for the leadership. In fact it probably makes her favourite.
We can now confirm George o is genius, as his two 'superior' rivals in 2010. Are both ex mos now, Vince and balls.
The Labour campaign really, really missed Mandelson. He was the only one Labour had in Osborne's class as a political organiser and Ed would not speak to him. Big mistake. Big, big mistake.
The polls did not move during the campaign. But the voters WERE moving. Several of us were telling people. We were poo-pooed as hearing what we wanted to hear.
NO WE FUCKING WEREN'T! There was a huge resource here that was totally ignored in favour of the polls. The polls that we told you were broken.
Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.
That pro-Labour swing in the opinion polls this week has totally f'cked the polling companies credibility.
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.
Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
That's the response of a bitter loser - just like Labour speakers. It's much easier for them to do that than consider what they did wrong.
Scotland won. 56 out of 59 MPs. Tories lost, Labour lost, Lib Dems need to be removed from being a "Major Party". UKIP need to be removed from being a "Major Party". Greens did on. SNP won the election.
There has been a significant change off circumstances.
Tories held their seat in Scotland and nearly got 2 - the suurrrgggeee is on....
Dair The Tories will be forming the government not the SNP, and they held their seat in Scotland, so it was a good night for the SNP but in no way did the Tories lose
Individual voter registration was my main reasoning for backing Tory majority, Wish I had gone straight to bed though as laying my bet during the night when the markets started to favour a hung parliament again cost me a lot of my winnings.
The polls did not move during the campaign. But the voters WERE moving. Several of us were telling people. We were poo-pooed as hearing what we wanted to hear.
NO WE FUCKING WEREN'T! There was a huge resource here that was totally ignored in favour of the polls. The polls that we told you were broken.
Those of us that mastered VoteSource and used it wisely got the greatest returns - South Norfolk - 30000 Cons votes and 20000 majority. That doesn't happen by itself. It was a big risk for the Tories to roll-out the poll-day module on the day before but Wow! it worked!
Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
They have won by being competent. And by absolutely gutting their Coalition partners of course.
Those that criticised the Tory campaign (and I include myself) have to give credit for something truly incredible here. Cameron went on the attack looking for the seats that he needed for the majority. I criticised him for it yesterday morning bemoaning the fact that he spent so long in Lib Dem seats instead of seeking to protect the seats he was going to lose to Labour.
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
Someone needs to explain how the Tories won.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
That's the response of a bitter loser - just like Labour speakers. It's much easier for them to do that than consider what they did wrong.
Scotland won. 56 out of 59 MPs. Tories lost, Labour lost, Lib Dems need to be removed from being a "Major Party". UKIP need to be removed from being a "Major Party". Greens did on. SNP won the election.
There has been a significant change off circumstances.
How have we lost? We're up in MPs and have an overall majority. Take your head out of your arse and stop inspecting the Scottish navel - your MPs aren't relevant. Your "progressive alliance" lost.
Comments
He was absolutely spot on. Incredibly so. Just an amazing result. This eclipses Major's result in 1992. Cameron has done something almost everyone, including me, thought was impossible.
1997, 2002, 2007 they had a clever leader who was prepared to adapt and reinvent his party.
The Tories may have won today but Labour and Lib Dems have to decide how they are going to respond.
Cameron has to find a way of co-existing with the SNP.
Key hold.
22 for Majority Tory rule
(maybe with more champagne?)
Ahhh what a wonderful day
The UK is probably much weaker now than it was 24 hours ago.
I heard your relly on the radio this a.m. came across well, but very strange to think he IS the Scottish Labour party in Westminster.
Will their be a LD downfall spoof.
Cable and Balls - I can't believe it.
If they won by creating an English Nationalism where hatred of Scotland is the priority, then perhaps that might not be what you want./
Labour were also telling me the same thing; no swing to Labour essentially. And they were spilling the beans on postal votes, which they were saying showed no swing, in fact a swing agasint Labour.
Yet the pollsters weren't picking this up.
I was miserable all day yesterday because I started to believe the polls. I should have stuck with my door knocking stats.
Any lessons for pollsters?
Well done to rcs1000 (trust you have not been disinherited from the Smithson fortune), IOS, JamesM, Jack W, Aveit and Roger for their forecasts. The rest of you are consigned to sympathise with Balls and Cable.
The regional splits of %age votes for each party will be interesting and may give leads to this result.
If you're not, then join, the Labour party needs the likes of you in it.
12 exc SF
CON 36.5
LAB 30.7
UKIP 12.5
LD 7.8
SNP 5.0
GRN 3.8
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000810
Wow. Just wow.
There has been a significant change off circumstances.
I warned you, OGH, not to take UNS too literally...
The polls did not move during the campaign. But the voters WERE moving. Several of us were telling people. We were poo-pooed as hearing what we wanted to hear.
NO WE FUCKING WEREN'T! There was a huge resource here that was totally ignored in favour of the polls. The polls that we told you were broken.
Tories held their seat in Scotland and nearly got 2 - the suurrrgggeee is on....
The polls generally had it neck and neck, some slightly the Tories ahead.
Allowing for margin of error and a late late late swing it isn't a disaster per se.
Well done. And congrats for all your hard work.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000747
We need a total re-write of polling methods and the BPC need an urgent independent enquiry. Make no mistake, this is an unmitigated polling cock up.