politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Many congratulations to those who called it right
Before we start looking at coming party leadership contests and the polling for the general election let’s first offer our congratulations to those who called it right. On PB there was JackW who has triumphed once again.
It would be interesting to know how Jack W, presumably with limited resources, was able to do better than YouGov & co with their huge resources and greater technical expertise
It would be interesting to know how Jack W, presumably with limited resources, was able to do better than YouGov & co with their huge resources and greater technical expertise
It was a pleasure to sit through it. Well done pb and jack w especially. Pb tories not always wrong. Fair play also to the reds such as np2xmp, so and BenM for staying online and not being fairweather visitors.
A bright good morning to one and all with appropriate congratulations and comisserations - either for political and/or betting reasons.
A few winners:
JackW and his ARSE Paul Mid Beds who IIRC forecast this result The exit poll PB's Conservative canvassers for accurate info Future minority governments
Some losers:
The opinion polls - credibility totally gone The LibDems - several hundred councillors are likely to bite the dust today Those Conservative MPs who stood down expecting defeat PB's Labour canvassers - what happened to your ground game ? Future coalition governments - not likely to happen
Mike, some of us are on for a Cons majority. I'm also on for seats so I'm covered nicely [and with other bets] but what is your understanding of the figure which will be settled for a Cons majority? Is it 326?
Surprised and a little disappointed but congratulations to the winners.
I even feel a little sorry for Ed. The polls were wrong but not that wrong - the FPTP system exaggerates the small differences. Ukip now established in third place for votes. Ken wanting a left turn as expected.
Surprised and a little disappointed but congratulations to the winners.
I even feel a little sorry for Ed. The polls were wrong but not that wrong - the FPTP system exaggerates the small differences. Ukip now established in third place for votes. Ken wanting a left turn as expected.
@faisalislam: Labour and LibDems would best see their current predicament as existential crises... Majority means referendum, it means boundary changes
Mike, some of us are on for a Cons majority. I'm also on for seats so I'm covered nicely [and with other bets] but what is your understanding of the figure which will be settled for a Cons majority? Is it 326?
My understanding is that a CON majority will be settled on 326 seats.
Mike, some of us are on for a Cons majority. I'm also on for seats so I'm covered nicely [and with other bets] but what is your understanding of the figure which will be settled for a Cons majority? Is it 326?
My understanding is that a CON majority will be settled on 326 seats.
Brilliant thanks. Here's hoping :-)
Think I win on 9 of my 10 bets. The one I lose is that I hedged on both 0-10 LDs and 11-20 LDs but got great odds a long way back.
Mike, some of us are on for a Cons majority. I'm also on for seats so I'm covered nicely [and with other bets] but what is your understanding of the figure which will be settled for a Cons majority? Is it 326?
My understanding is that a CON majority will be settled on 326 seats.
Labour in Bristol West had a good ground game, never seen them bother my road in 12 years, but they were determined. Greens trying to cycle up St Michael's Hill without data got them the result they deserved.
Trouble is the Green slime might win council seats.
Mike I hope you don't mind my reiterating my full (not fulsome) praise for this website. I made several hundred euros on the result and I will contribute a tithe of that to this site.
Question about the Fixed Parliament Act. Ignoring the possibility of the Conservatives overturning it, doesn't a Conservative Minority render it technically irrelevant anyway? If the Conservatives wanted to call a general election, all they need to do is pass a motion of no confidence in themselves. Then wait two weeks and pass a motion of no confidence in any government that attempts to replace them?
Question about the Fixed Parliament Act. Ignoring the possibility of the Conservatives overturning it, doesn't a Conservative Minority render it technically irrelevant anyway? If the Conservatives wanted to call a general election, all they need to do is pass a motion of no confidence in themselves. Then wait two weeks and pass a motion of no confidence in any government that attempts to replace them?
Devastating result for Labour. Obvoously I am disappointed with the result but congrats to the Tories - this victory must be very sweet indeed.
Let's now see how the Tories will govern - will they stay in the centre ground or will the backbenchers pull the government well to the right.
As for Labour, there has to be some reflection. The bottom line is that there has been a disconnect between the Labour leadership and Labour's core vote. Witness how UKIP has mortally wounded Labour outside London.
Comments
Wow - I knew it was close but that is stunning.
It would be interesting to know how Jack W, presumably with limited resources, was able to do better than YouGov & co with their huge resources and greater technical expertise
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2014/11/04/could-the-conservatives-win-an-overall-majority-in-the-2015-general-election-next-year-part-2/
Glad I didn't stay up for my local result, given it hasn't quite come in yet.
(edit: and thanks - although I was, ahem, in absentia for a while..)
Don't know whether it was science, intuition, a fluke or some of each. But I widely dissed you and that was remiss of me.
Apologies.
Berwick
St Ives
What's the other?
At least two POTENTIAL Con gains.
We had nearly 11,000 comments in 10 hours
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000743
A few winners:
JackW and his ARSE
Paul Mid Beds who IIRC forecast this result
The exit poll
PB's Conservative canvassers for accurate info
Future minority governments
Some losers:
The opinion polls - credibility totally gone
The LibDems - several hundred councillors are likely to bite the dust today
Those Conservative MPs who stood down expecting defeat
PB's Labour canvassers - what happened to your ground game ?
Future coalition governments - not likely to happen
I trust the losses are not too painful.
Halifax
Derby North
Gedling
Morley and Outwood
Doesn't seem to have affected SNP!!
It's Wells.
I am feeling rather pleased.
I even feel a little sorry for Ed. The polls were wrong but not that wrong - the FPTP system exaggerates the small differences. Ukip now established in third place for votes. Ken wanting a left turn as expected.
And thanks to TSE and OGH.
The only places they did well were London, 'Greater Scouseland' and a few studenty places.
Which means that the dominance of these areas to Labour's membership and political thought will only increase.
But elections are won not in such places but in those medium sized English towns with names reminiscent of lower league football clubs.
19000 Chloe Smith [Con]
14000 Jess Asasto [Lab]
6000 UKIP
2000 Grn
5000 majority
Think I win on 9 of my 10 bets. The one I lose is that I hedged on both 0-10 LDs and 11-20 LDs but got great odds a long way back.
Lancaster, Bedford, Keighley, Warwick & Leamington, Crewe & Nantwich
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000972
And anyone who followed my tips on the Conservatives in Elmet, Weaver Vale, Pudsey and Battersea will have something to smile about.
Lancaster, Morecambe, Bedford, Warwick and Crewe to hear from on Con defences against Labour.
Edit: and Thanet South.
Labour in Bristol West had a good ground game, never seen them bother my road in 12 years, but they were determined. Greens trying to cycle up St Michael's Hill without data got them the result they deserved.
Trouble is the Green slime might win council seats.
Now that the Lib Dems are no longer in Government, is there ANY chance that Paddy will now just fuck off our TV screens?
I hope that in his celebrations Cameron can find a minute to pay tribute to the LDs 2010-15.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZY7Pkcl6v4
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
Let's now see how the Tories will govern - will they stay in the centre ground or will the backbenchers pull the government well to the right.
As for Labour, there has to be some reflection. The bottom line is that there has been a disconnect between the Labour leadership and Labour's core vote. Witness how UKIP has mortally wounded Labour outside London.
There's a good correlation between the UKIP rise and the LibDems fall.
But I think some of the 'Red Libs' must have gone Labour (as they did in London) with Labour in turn losing wwc votes to UKIP.
3 more likely gains from LD.
Then possible gains and loses vs Lab.
Why are they taking so long? I know Farage is demanding a recount but where are the others?