Indeed. The Conservatives have won a brilliant victory. However, the first session of Parliament must see the passage of a bill providing for a referendum on Europe and a constitutional bill on Scotland. With the Conservatives' perilously small majority, passing one will be an uphill struggle. Passing two will require serious commitment.
Watching Look North it's interesting the divergence - Labour increased their majority in Stockton North, Tories increased their majority in Stockton South
Why does it appear that UKIP affected Labour more than the Tories ? I know that some within UKIP predicted this, but the polls were showing more Tories had switched to UKIP ?
The polling companies will have to think about their methods in finding out exactly what is happening around the country. The Tories spent much more money on campaigning before the election period started. The Lib Dems did not stand a chance, as they had little money. There was obviously a swing to the Tories and not just in the last 24 hours. Why did the polls not pick this up ?
Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
@paulmasonnews: Whole Labour inner circle knows problem: if New Lab stage coup Unite leaves and you get an English Syriza, possibly with more money than Lab
That pretty much sums it up - though I suspect a centre left party shorn of Unite would attract a fair few hefty donations from sources that currently keep their wallets shut.
Your problem is that Labour is now fully associated with magic money tree spending.
It wont gain extra votes until it loses that association and if it loses that association it will lose the votes who want magic money tree spending.
Of course the Conservatives also believe in magic money tree spending but they're not associated with it - so Conservative magic money tree spending is called 'austerity' or 'sound economic management' etc.
Maybe. I'm not sure magic money trees had much to do with this result. But Labour does have a serious existential problem, I agree.
As someone who clearly has a brain has just said on the BBC news - there needs to be an investigation by the Market Research Society into the opinion pollsters.
Someone clearly without a brain is the aptly named Mr Reckless. He jumped a ship which was not sinking and onto one which was on fire. I do not see Carswell staying in UKIP if Farage resigns and UKIP swing behind its current deputy leader and all the others of his ilk.
Incidentally, the Tories will struggle to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998. A number of their backbenchers are strongly opposed led by the former Attorney General. They will have to get DUP support for reform.
Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.
That pro-Labour swing in the opinion polls this week has totally f'cked the polling companies credibility.
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.
Wait for some more detail on what happened (especially exit poll detail). It may have just been a swing on the day - you only need 3% of all voters to switch to turn Con 33.5 - Lab 33.5 into Con 36.5 - Lab 30.5.
Anecdotally, we've had Nick Palmer here reporting people who'd said they'd support Lab changing their minds, and Jack Straw was saying something similar on Sky earlier.
Labour middle-class activists thinking nice WWC people would never lie to them about voting Labour when they were actually supporting UKIP
Serves them right for demonising anybody who expresses their real view if its different from theirs. I think one big learning emerging from this GE is the whole 'shy Tory / shy Kipper' thing. The 'middle ground' of public discourse is pushed to the left by the BBC, bien-pensant types. It is not actually the middle at all. The pollsters failed to spot this. Maybe they should read PB!
Yeah, it's all a BBC conspiracy, eh? Is there anything the BBC aren't to blame for?
Like with a lot of things the public are right-wing on some issues (immigration, welfare) and left-wing on others (NHS). Thus, it's called the centre.
Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.
They lost because maybe half of their voters went to Labour or Greens. How exactly would that have been balmed by licking up to the Tories? Isn't that just the kind of advice partisans always give to other parties?
Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.
Exactly. They lost overwhelmingly to the government party - had they been running on a crystal clear government platform that wouldn't have happened.
As someone who clearly has a brain has just said on the BBC news - there needs to be an investigation by the Market Research Society into the opinion pollsters.
Someone clearly without a brain is the aptly named Mr Reckless. He jumped a ship which was not sinking and onto one which was on fire. I do not see Carswell staying in UKIP if Farage resigns and UKIP swing behind its current deputy leader and all the others of his ilk.
I'm shocked at how small Carswell's majority is in Claton. Assumed he's be 20 points clear of the field.
A great night politically there may never be one as good ever again, especially as it was so unexpected. However I always backed the Tories to do well in my area the East Midlands, Williamson losing my seat Derby North put the cream, icing, cherries the lot on a fine cake.
We have lost politicians I admire from all sides Ed Balls, Hughesy, Danny and Esther hopefully they can all get back at some stage.
I am not sure that is the case. He has long argued for electoral reform (though I happen to disagree with him even after last night) and he now finds himself as a perfect example of what he feels is wrong with the system. UKIP and the Greens between them end up with almost a fifth of the vote and with 2 seats.
Now as I say I don't agree with him on moving to PR but in his mind this will be a perfect example of why it is needed.
Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.
That pro-Labour swing in the opinion polls this week has totally f'cked the polling companies credibility.
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.
Wait for some more detail on what happened (especially exit poll detail). It may have just been a swing on the day - you only need 3% of all voters to switch to turn Con 33.5 - Lab 33.5 into Con 36.5 - Lab 30.5.
Anecdotally, we've had Nick Palmer here reporting people who'd said they'd support Lab changing their minds, and Jack Straw was saying something similar on Sky earlier.
Labour middle-class activists thinking nice WWC people would never lie to them about voting Labour when they were actually supporting UKIP
Serves them right for demonising anybody who expresses their real view if its different from theirs. I think one big learning emerging from this GE is the whole 'shy Tory / shy Kipper' thing. The 'middle ground' of public discourse is pushed to the left by the BBC, bien-pensant types. It is not actually the middle at all. The pollsters failed to spot this. Maybe they should read PB!
Yeah, it's all a BBC conspiracy, eh? Is there anything the BBC aren't to blame for?
Like with a lot of things the public are right-wing on some issues (immigration, welfare) and left-wing on others (NHS). Thus, it's called the centre.
Not a BBC conspiracy. Just the ignorance of Labour middle class types who think they know best.
Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.
Exactly. They lost overwhelmingly to the government party - had they been running on a crystal clear government platform that wouldn't have happened.
I think getting elected on a mandate to do X and doing the exact polar opposite in govt was a stretch too far. That's what differentiated them from the Tories in govt. The Tories by and large did what they were expected to do.
Always a good chance Labour would struggle to get over 30%. Those last couple of polls showing a bizarre last minute swing to Labour seem even more bizarre now. The pollsters should have listened to me and weighted Labour down due to the crackdown on electoral fraud.
Good night for UKIP, by elections and the next general will see them pick up more seats, the system works fine. The fact it was a tight election set them back.
The economy won it, just rewards after the careful stewardship so far. Apt Balls should have been made redundant.
I am not sure that is the case. He has long argued for electoral reform (though I happen to disagree with him even after last night) and he now finds himself as a perfect example of what he feels is wrong with the system. UKIP and the Greens between them end up with almost a fifth of the vote and with 2 seats.
Now as I say I don't agree with him on moving to PR but in his mind this will be a perfect example of why it is needed.
The move to 600 seats will make the system even less proportional, of course.
Carswell is going to feel like a plonker when he returns to parliament.
I know he is heavily principled and all that but he caught a bus going in the opposition direction to the zeitgeist.
Sitting on the opposition benches with the SNP..... That is going to be soul-destroying. But I suspect he will very largely vote with the Government. He should swallow his pride and ask to come back to the Tories. He would still have a role as a thinker.
The Labour party is wholly dominated by TUs and is absurdly Londoncentric - it's losing it's connection with its old heartlands.
I agree with that. I thought that Ed Miliband was far too cautious. He was trying not to frighten middle England, but then did not encourage Labours traditional supporters to go out to vote. Also in hindsight Labour not offering an EU referendum was a mistake, as Labour lost votes to UKIP.
The trouble for Labour is whether they can raise enough funding without the Unions. They will need a new leader who concentrates on building up membership and activist numbers. For Labour to win in 2020, they will need to win large numbers of council seats around the country, as they will form the teams that campaign at elections.
The Scottish cataclysm is entirely of Labour's own making. Gordon Brown started it with what he thought was a clever wheeze, and today his own former constituency, deliciously, has been stolen from under his nose..
His entitled pals lording (lairding?) it around rosette-on-a-pig-country aka Scotland's central belt... 'We own these votes'... were typified by the appalling Gorbals Mick and the Scottish party machine which had abused the Scottish electorate for generations. Their contempt for the people whom they so loudly and piously claimed to represent was disgusting. They were not the servants of their people. Their electors were their prisoners, their serfs, calculatedly mired for ever in dirigiste statism and welfare dependency for the convenience of the fanatical quasi Marxist and certainly statist Brown and his political kin. They deserve everything with which the Scottish people are rewarding them today. The Scots should never go back to what they have thrown off.
Any 'blame' attributed to anyone but Labour is ludicrous.
@paulmasonnews: Whole Labour inner circle knows problem: if New Lab stage coup Unite leaves and you get an English Syriza, possibly with more money than Lab
That pretty much sums it up - though I suspect a centre left party shorn of Unite would attract a fair few hefty donations from sources that currently keep their wallets shut.
Your problem is that Labour is now fully associated with magic money tree spending.
It wont gain extra votes until it loses that association and if it loses that association it will lose the votes who want magic money tree spending.
Of course the Conservatives also believe in magic money tree spending but they're not associated with it - so Conservative magic money tree spending is called 'austerity' or 'sound economic management' etc.
Maybe. I'm not sure magic money trees had much to do with this result. But Labour does have a serious existential problem, I agree.
I think the reaction of the audience at BBC Leaders QT was telling when Miliband was asked if labour spent too much and said 'no' - a sharp intake of breath combined with a low groan - the British are fair and are prepared to give those who recognise their mistakes a second chance - until Labour do, they won't.
Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.
Exactly. They lost overwhelmingly to the government party - had they been running on a crystal clear government platform that wouldn't have happened.
I think getting elected on a mandate to do X and doing the exact polar opposite in govt was a stretch too far. That's what differentiated them from the Tories in govt. The Tories by and large did what they were expected to do.
The Lib Dems took a hit on doing the polar opposite on tuition fees, yes. But they've gone much further down since that initial hit. Even 4.5 years ago the idea of 8 Lib Dems would have been considered fanciful.
Tories nearly 6% ahead now in the national vote share. Pollsters looking very very stupid.
That pro-Labour swing in the opinion polls this week has totally f'cked the polling companies credibility.
I am though a little baffled as to how a level headed man like PtP thought his canvassing experiences in Broxtowe were much better for Labour than those in 2010.
Wait for some more detail on what happened (especially exit poll detail). It may have just been a swing on the day - you only need 3% of all voters to switch to turn Con 33.5 - Lab 33.5 into Con 36.5 - Lab 30.5.
Anecdotally, we've had Nick Palmer here reporting people who'd said they'd support Lab changing their minds, and Jack Straw was saying something similar on Sky earlier.
Labour middle-class activists thinking nice WWC people would never lie to them about voting Labour when they were actually supporting UKIP
Serves them right for demonising anybody who expresses their real view if its different from theirs. I think one big learning emerging from this GE is the whole 'shy Tory / shy Kipper' thing. The 'middle ground' of public discourse is pushed to the left by the BBC, bien-pensant types. It is not actually the middle at all. The pollsters failed to spot this. Maybe they should read PB!
Yeah, it's all a BBC conspiracy, eh? Is there anything the BBC aren't to blame for?
Like with a lot of things the public are right-wing on some issues (immigration, welfare) and left-wing on others (NHS). Thus, it's called the centre.
Not a BBC conspiracy. Just the ignorance of Labour middle class types who think they know best.
How about the idea that neither Labour middle class types nor Kipper WWC know best - that they both have fairly simplistic views of the world that don't acknowledge shades of grey?
Incidentally, the Tories will struggle to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998. A number of their backbenchers are strongly opposed led by the former Attorney General. They will have to get DUP support for reform.
It would be utterly moronic to repeal the HRA. No-one will support it except kippers and idiotic Tories, So that's Carswell.
@paulmasonnews: Whole Labour inner circle knows problem: if New Lab stage coup Unite leaves and you get an English Syriza, possibly with more money than Lab
That pretty much sums it up - though I suspect a centre left party shorn of Unite would attract a fair few hefty donations from sources that currently keep their wallets shut.
Your problem is that Labour is now fully associated with magic money tree spending.
It wont gain extra votes until it loses that association and if it loses that association it will lose the votes who want magic money tree spending.
Of course the Conservatives also believe in magic money tree spending but they're not associated with it - so Conservative magic money tree spending is called 'austerity' or 'sound economic management' etc.
Maybe. I'm not sure magic money trees had much to do with this result. But Labour does have a serious existential problem, I agree.
I think the reaction of the audience at BBC Leaders QT was telling when Miliband was asked if labour spent too much and said 'no' - a sharp intake of breath combined with a low groan - the British are fair and are prepared to give those who recognise their mistakes a second chance - until Labour do, they won't.
I thought that would turn out to be a massive moment in the campaign. As it was, it seemed to barely register, but today's result suggests otherwise...
Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.
Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.
Exactly. They lost overwhelmingly to the government party - had they been running on a crystal clear government platform that wouldn't have happened.
I think getting elected on a mandate to do X and doing the exact polar opposite in govt was a stretch too far. That's what differentiated them from the Tories in govt. The Tories by and large did what they were expected to do.
The Lib Dems took a hit on doing the polar opposite on tuition fees, yes. But they've gone much further down since that initial hit. Even 4.5 years ago the idea of 8 Lib Dems would have been considered fanciful.
It would be utterly moronic to repeal the HRA. No-one will support it except kippers and idiotic Tories, So that's Carswell.
It would be reasonable and sensible to repeal the 1998 Act. It has given far too much power to judges. The problem is that the Tories intend to replace it with something equally bad.
Can we get one thing cleared up. The LibDems haven't been punished for being in the Coalition. They have been punished for having no commitment to the Coalition. They tried to be in government and opposition at the same time. They needed to fight their corner, show they believed they wanted to be in government - and constantly fight Labour as being the Irresponsible Left.
Muppets.
Exactly. They lost overwhelmingly to the government party - had they been running on a crystal clear government platform that wouldn't have happened.
I think getting elected on a mandate to do X and doing the exact polar opposite in govt was a stretch too far. That's what differentiated them from the Tories in govt. The Tories by and large did what they were expected to do.
The Lib Dems took a hit on doing the polar opposite on tuition fees, yes. But they've gone much further down since that initial hit. Even 4.5 years ago the idea of 8 Lib Dems would have been considered fanciful.
Should have got rid of Clegg. Utterly toxic. Cable lost his seat because he didn't challenge him.
I am not sure that is the case. He has long argued for electoral reform (though I happen to disagree with him even after last night) and he now finds himself as a perfect example of what he feels is wrong with the system. UKIP and the Greens between them end up with almost a fifth of the vote and with 2 seats.
Now as I say I don't agree with him on moving to PR but in his mind this will be a perfect example of why it is needed.
Peter Hitchens wrote an eloquent defence of FPTP, which I agree with. A PR elected second chamber makes sense though.
Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.
But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.
NHS? Whilst everyone has been talking about the election may 89 year old relative was having 2 consultations in the same day (yesterday) for two different conditions and a is currently today getting a treatment to remove a suspected skin cancer 'mole'. Thats the day after the consultation. Not the sort of tory NHS that the odious Coogan pretends.
Tom Brake struggling to explain things on the local news. Talks about the rise of nationalism mentioning the SNP and Ukip. No mention of the Tories appeal to the English with scares about the SNP. The coalition is over, when are the Lib Dems going to take the gloves off and start bashing the Tories. If they want to be Tory-lite then they can satisfy themselves with where they are.
As someone who clearly has a brain has just said on the BBC news - there needs to be an investigation by the Market Research Society into the opinion pollsters.
Someone clearly without a brain is the aptly named Mr Reckless. He jumped a ship which was not sinking and onto one which was on fire. I do not see Carswell staying in UKIP if Farage resigns and UKIP swing behind its current deputy leader and all the others of his ilk.
I'm shocked at how small Carswell's majority is in Claton. Assumed he's be 20 points clear of the field.
Also suggests the late swing to Con (assuming that's what happened) wasn't particularly tactical.
If you look at Labour's London success, it is actually only a North London success - South of the river bar Bermondsey, the Conservatives had the better night.
Quick post re. comparisons to 1992-7. You have to remember that came at the fag-end of a 11 year rule and the Conservatives were in internal warfare over the deposition of Margaret Thatcher. In addition the ERM fiasco so early on derailed them for the remainder of the parliament.
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.
But they've got literally one thing to fight for together. What manifesto did they run on? Out of Europe referendum, and... ? ? ? ? This gap weakens Cameron's authority to tell them to do anything.
Exactly. There are three things which are significant obstacles for the Tories; EU ref, austerity impact, and Scotland. On top of that, if Cameron goes after 2017 it will feel like the end of an era and the 'fag-end' of a government.
Incidentally, the Tories will struggle to repeal the Human Rights Act 1998. A number of their backbenchers are strongly opposed led by the former Attorney General. They will have to get DUP support for reform.
They stood on one manifesto. Voting against a 3 line whip will finish their careers. Soubry?
So will Salmond now be given a question at PMQs as third largest party?
He should get two, as Clegg did pre-2010. The Lib Dems, by contrast, won't get any as of right. Indeed, they may shortly become close to invisible. I would not be at all surprised if they lost major party status off the back of this.
Comments
Look how wrong they were..........
Many good LibDems have been destroyed by Clegg's ambition.
Yet Clegg survives and will get himself some big job elsewhere.
I'm now off to bed.
Supposedly his son was trying to get the bet voided, claiming his father had dementia. I bet his son will be feeling sick if he succeeded.
The polling companies will have to think about their methods in finding out exactly what is happening around the country. The Tories spent much more money on campaigning before the election period started. The Lib Dems did not stand a chance, as they had little money. There was obviously a swing to the Tories and not just in the last 24 hours. Why did the polls not pick this up ?
Muppets.
I know he is heavily principled and all that but he caught a bus going in the opposition direction to the zeitgeist.
I wonder if he had an insight on some internal polling....
Someone clearly without a brain is the aptly named Mr Reckless. He jumped a ship which was not sinking and onto one which was on fire.
I do not see Carswell staying in UKIP if Farage resigns and UKIP swing behind its current deputy leader and all the others of his ilk.
Like with a lot of things the public are right-wing on some issues (immigration, welfare) and left-wing on others (NHS). Thus, it's called the centre.
Were you up for Ed?
Hell Yes !!!!
Cameron won't scrap it - but he could go for another 5 year freeze - or maybe a notional 1% cut each year?????
Miliband to make his announcement at 12 noon. Looks like a resignation announcement
We have lost politicians I admire from all sides Ed Balls, Hughesy, Danny and Esther hopefully they can all get back at some stage.
Now as I say I don't agree with him on moving to PR but in his mind this will be a perfect example of why it is needed.
Good news from Bedford
Good night for UKIP, by elections and the next general will see them pick up more seats, the system works fine. The fact it was a tight election set them back.
The economy won it, just rewards after the careful stewardship so far. Apt Balls should have been made redundant.
Very disappointed of course.
Congratulations to the small number on here especially JackW who called it right.
Hope most people had a profitable betting evening.
I blew nearly all my EICIPM ((which turned out to mean Eds Idiotic Cameron Is PM!!) profits and finished just £35 up.
Except i owe the site £50 by the looks of it due to my Tissue Price bet LAB vote share being under 32.5% can someone PM me how i pay this please.
Lets see how the next 5 years turn out.
Lunch on TSE next week!!!
The trouble for Labour is whether they can raise enough funding without the Unions. They will need a new leader who concentrates on building up membership and activist numbers. For Labour to win in 2020, they will need to win large numbers of council seats around the country, as they will form the teams that campaign at elections.
His entitled pals lording (lairding?) it around rosette-on-a-pig-country aka Scotland's central belt... 'We own these votes'... were typified by the appalling Gorbals Mick and the Scottish party machine which had abused the Scottish electorate for generations. Their contempt for the people whom they so loudly and piously claimed to represent was disgusting. They were not the servants of their people. Their electors were their prisoners, their serfs, calculatedly mired for ever in dirigiste statism and welfare dependency for the convenience of the fanatical quasi Marxist and certainly statist Brown and his political kin. They deserve everything with which the Scottish people are rewarding them today. The Scots should never go back to what they have thrown off.
Any 'blame' attributed to anyone but Labour is ludicrous.
Ed Is Crap Is Not Even Leader Of The Opposition
I think Cameron will have a very different experience with a lot more self-discipline based on a desire to win next time. Also don't forget that 230 Lab + 55 SNP is a very different opposition from 285 Lab. Quite apart from anything else SNP MP's will not attend and vote at Westminster the whole time.
Whilst everyone has been talking about the election may 89 year old relative was having 2 consultations in the same day (yesterday) for two different conditions and a is currently today getting a treatment to remove a suspected skin cancer 'mole'. Thats the day after the consultation.
Not the sort of tory NHS that the odious Coogan pretends.
He even had to get married. Unlucky...
Any more Con seats at risk? Warwick only I think? And that looks unlikely.
Excellent chance of 331 if they get the 3 last LD seats.
"Only 5 years to save the NHS"
Oh ?
It really has been a shocking night for him