If Labour has any sense - hmmmm - they'll forbid anyone who was a cabinet minister between 1997 and 2010 from standing for the leadership. Let Chukka, Liz, Dan and co battle it out. For me Jarvis would buy Labour by far the best hearing in the country generally, but I doubt he has the base as yet within the party.
But what's Jarvis's USP? He was a serving soldier (unusual for Labour), and that seems to be it. Not sure he's the man.
He does not look or sound like a Labour metropolitan. His back story makes it impossible to attack him personally and it will get him a hearing that other politicians of all parties, outside the SNP, would struggle to get. That on its own is plenty. Even if he said the same as EdM who he is means a lot more people would listen sympathetically. Put it this way, it's harder to put a decorated war hero in Alec Salmond's pocket.
Labour abandoned it's core and it's founding purpose from Foot onwards, apart from the brief John Smith and Bryan Gould sunrise, they have finally paid the price for it, and must learn.
They were complicit in their own destruction. As leader he bears much responsibility, but they backed going into coalition, didn't break away earlier and didn't force him to stand down before this GE. It would be a mistake for the party, what is left of it, to take the easy route and blame it all on him and what he did. They won't learn properly from that.
Sadly I think a lot of the awkward squad think a Farron coronation and a leftwards March and all will be right
The common link between ghe Tories and SNP is very strong leader ratings. Of course FFA will be offered to the Scots now. I think the unionis pretty much done.
Yep. Cameron has won a majority but will in effect find it impossible to do anything to Scotland, which is as good as acknowledging we are now two separate countries already.
They were complicit in their own destruction. As leader he bears much responsibility, but they backed going into coalition, didn't break away earlier and didn't force him to stand down before this GE. It would be a mistake for the party, what is left of it, to take the easy route and blame it all on him and what he did. They won't learn properly from that.
Anyway Mr Kle4 I will now happily say Cameron has won an election ( assuming forecast hold true )
As an exercise in destructive futility Ed's leadership of the Labour party will take some beating.
Nah. He's not even in the premier league alongside MacDonald and Foot.
MacDonald was a PM, Foot had a happy family. Ed failed at the first and destroyed the second.
Nonetheless, both presided over disastrous splits within Labour which surely count as much greater 'destructive futility' than anything Miliband managed. Actually, I think he's brought and kept the Labour movement together quite well. Some would argue that it's been at the expense of electoral success. I disagree: a united party is a pre-requisite for success. That Miliband failed to deliver it was the result of other factors, some of which were down to him and some were not.
Labour 37% (-1) Cons 27% (+1) UKIP 14% (+12) Plaid Cymru 12% (-1) Lib Dems 7% (-13) Others 3% (+2)
UKIP is in third. There is a clear flashing danger for Labour in their S. Wales heartlands in the Welsh Assembly next year.
The two remarkable Tory triumphs Vale of Clwyd and Gower are possible because UKIP bit a chunk of out Labour’s vote. Both constituencies have very affluent portions, and depressed portions.
Outwith Scotland, Gower is the stand-out result. This has been continuously Labour since 1906.
Are the LibDems now basically dead? 8 MPs and a pitiful share of the vote - where can they go from here? I assume the media will soon enough just stop talking about them. They have the same number of MPs as the DUP and look set to be as relevant! For so long they stood for nothing and everything. One hung parliament was all it took to expose that. They'll fade from our memories PDQ I suspect.
They were complicit in their own destruction. As leader he bears much responsibility, but they backed going into coalition, didn't break away earlier and didn't force him to stand down before this GE. It would be a mistake for the party, what is left of it, to take the easy route and blame it all on him and what he did. They won't learn properly from that.
He did what he genuinely thought was required for the country in time of crisis; he accepted the risk that it would destroy his party, but he put his country first.
We shouldn't mock him for this, it was tragic in its nobility.
We now desperately need the few remaining one nation Tories like Ken Clarke to stand up and be counted. I can't believe they are happy with this descent into Union-damaging English grievance, city boys fundraisers and endless Brussels bashing.
The common link between ghe Tories and SNP is very strong leader ratings. Of course FFA will be offered to the Scots now. I think the unionis pretty much done.
I thought Andrew Marr's comments about that were interesting. He basically said that with the benefit of hindsight it now looks inevitable and there was nothing Westminster politicians could have done to prevent it.
Are the LibDems now basically dead? 8 MPs and a pitiful share of the vote - where can they go from here? I assume the media will soon enough just stop talking about them. They have the same number of MPs as the DUP and look set to be as relevant! For so long they stood for nothing and everything. One hung parliament was all it took to expose that. They'll fade from our memories PDQ I suspect.
They aren't dead but they are back to being at the fringes of politics like they was when they were just the Liberal Party.
I assume they will eventually rebuild as a protest vote but it'll take a generation.
Are the LibDems now basically dead? 8 MPs and a pitiful share of the vote - where can they go from here? I assume the media will soon enough just stop talking about them. They have the same number of MPs as the DUP and look set to be as relevant! For so long they stood for nothing and everything. One hung parliament was all it took to expose that. They'll fade from our memories PDQ I suspect.
And the killer will be how much they get cut off from cash - less short money fewer donors
The common link between ghe Tories and SNP is very strong leader ratings. Of course FFA will be offered to the Scots now. I think the unionis pretty much done.
Yep. Cameron has won a majority but will in effect find it impossible to do anything to Scotland, which is as good as acknowledging we are now two separate countries already.
They were complicit in their own destruction. As leader he bears much responsibility, but they backed going into coalition, didn't break away earlier and didn't force him to stand down before this GE. It would be a mistake for the party, what is left of it, to take the easy route and blame it all on him and what he did. They won't learn properly from that.
Anyway Mr Kle4 I will now happily say Cameron has won an election ( assuming forecast hold true )
They were complicit in their own destruction. As leader he bears much responsibility, but they backed going into coalition, didn't break away earlier and didn't force him to stand down before this GE. It would be a mistake for the party, what is left of it, to take the easy route and blame it all on him and what he did. They won't learn properly from that.
He did what he genuinely thought was required for the country in time of crisis; he accepted the risk that it would destroy his party, but he put his country first.
We shouldn't mock him for this, it was tragic in its nobility.
I would vote for Clegg, I think he and the LDs have been punished unduly by the electorate, but I am clearly in a minority in that.
Gower had been held by Labour since 1906. Today they lost it by 27 votes to the Conservatives in what is probably the most surprising result of the election:
The Lib Dems are now massively over-represented in the Lords. Normally, ex-cabinet ministers and former leaders would automatically receive a peerage after retirement but that'd add an extra seven peers by itself. Far from convinced they'll get that, never mind more, any time soon.
We now desperately need the few remaining one nation Tories like Ken Clarke to stand up and be counted. I can't believe they are happy with this descent into Union-damaging English grievance, city boys fundraisers and endless Brussels bashing.
Ken said all the Tories like him and his ilk from the seventies started joining the Lib Dems instead in the nineties. Now look at them, they are all utterly savaged. The nice moderate time is over, it's time for bitter leftists, English-nat Tories and splitters named after fish.
Are the LibDems now basically dead? 8 MPs and a pitiful share of the vote - where can they go from here? I assume the media will soon enough just stop talking about them. They have the same number of MPs as the DUP and look set to be as relevant! For so long they stood for nothing and everything. One hung parliament was all it took to expose that. They'll fade from our memories PDQ I suspect.
They aren't dead but they are back to being at the fringes of politics like they was when they were just the Liberal Party.
I assume they will eventually rebuild as a protest vote but it'll take a generation.
They spent a generation lying trying to be all things to all men, come Government and they were found out. They are thoroughly disreputable and are now back in their box.
TRying to browse results is an absolute pain on everyone's sites - missing information like total votes, no easy to sort list of all constituencies, opening up a new page for every result - this is a bit of a git.
The best bet in the middle of the night that I have ever had. I still can't work out what made the price on a Tory majority drift so suddenly and so much
I could have been in bloodbath territory.
Thank God i avoided the urge at 2am to bet against a Tory Maj at 1.33 nearly stuck a Grand on it to win £330.
That really would have topped off a very bad lefty evening.
Congratulations to those who got on at 9/1 earlier in the campaign.
As an exercise in destructive futility Ed's leadership of the Labour party will take some beating.
Andy Burnham could give it a good go
ToriesForBurnham
Butcher would be my choice as well. Sly, evasive, innumerate, never done a real job and drenched in Staffordshire blood. Sort of Tony Blair without the personal integrity.
The common link between ghe Tories and SNP is very strong leader ratings. Of course FFA will be offered to the Scots now. I think the unionis pretty much done.
Yep. Cameron has won a majority but will in effect find it impossible to do anything to Scotland, which is as good as acknowledging we are now two separate countries already.
Are the LibDems now basically dead? 8 MPs and a pitiful share of the vote - where can they go from here? I assume the media will soon enough just stop talking about them. They have the same number of MPs as the DUP and look set to be as relevant! For so long they stood for nothing and everything. One hung parliament was all it took to expose that. They'll fade from our memories PDQ I suspect.
Not dead. No, no.....No, 'e's stunned! Lib Dem birds stun easily. 'E's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This Lib Dem bird is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! Ref Monty Python and the great late Lady.
If, if, Thanet South does become Cons hold we are very very close to the Farage result being the one which would win the majority. Would be so cute but too much to ask for!!
Are the LibDems now basically dead? 8 MPs and a pitiful share of the vote - where can they go from here? I assume the media will soon enough just stop talking about them. They have the same number of MPs as the DUP and look set to be as relevant! For so long they stood for nothing and everything. One hung parliament was all it took to expose that. They'll fade from our memories PDQ I suspect.
Politics abhors a vacuum, and somebody needs to be the opposition to the Tories in the South of England. In theory there's an opening for Labour there with the right leader, but they still have a lot of residual brand damage, and it's not obvious who they can pick who could appeal. Meanwhile the Greens seem determined to be resolutely lefty and a lot of voters are allergic to UKIP.
So they go back to councils, then hope for a good by-election...
Obviously good night for the tories, wiped out the lib dems south of the trent.
Mixed night for labour, net gains in england but not enough to offset the bad losses in Scotland. It's not a total wipeout and it's a good base to build from. Get a proper leader willing to put in the hard yards and victory in 2020 looks likely. The brand is still strong.
Lib Dem and UKIP the big losers of the night; the insurgent purple peoples army was routed by the voting system, and failed to breakthrough everywhere. Farange's career is over. Carswell must be regretting his defection.
Last euros will be the historical highpoint for them
Vote gone from 3% to 12%, think you need to put prejudices to one side as it costs you money.
But only 1 seat with a vastly reduced majority, Farange finished. This was their time.
I think it's a dreadful shame, I'd have much preferred to see them break through into the mainstream. They represent a strain of opinion that is becoming isolated from the process.
There will be a pretend referendum on a pretend renegotiation where much like in Scotland where Devomax wasn't offered, a much looser EFA type deal which people would like will not be offered.
Andyjs Parts of GOwer are pretty upmarket. Conundrum now for Blues. Do they slash welsh seat numbers to equalize constituencies having done so well here?
Labour 37% (-1) Cons 27% (+1) UKIP 14% (+12) Plaid Cymru 12% (-1) Lib Dems 7% (-13) Others 3% (+2)
But Leanne said on the tv this morning that PC had a great campaign. WTF. Maths not a key skill in Wales?
Like health, education and the economy - none are key skills in Wales.
The Cons did above expectation in Wales by retaining their Cardiff seat and gaining two Labour seats. Winning Brecon from the LDs was always probable.
Plaid are very sensitive this morning at being called the 4th party in Wales - coming in behind UKIP. Labour is quite concerned at UKIP getting constituency seats at next year's Assembly elections.
Since he became leader of the Tories, David Cameron seen off Charles Kennedy, Tony Blair, Ming Campbell, Gordon Brown, and now Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage.
And he has given the Tories their first majority government for 23 years.
Turns out, for all the abuse I and everyone else has given him over the years, he's actually a bloody leader isn't he?
The best bet in the middle of the night that I have ever had. I still can't work out what made the price on a Tory majority drift so suddenly and so much
I could have been in bloodbath territory.
Thank God i avoided the urge at 2am to bet against a Tory Maj at 1.33 nearly stuck a Grand on it to win £330.
That really would have topped off a very bad lefty evening.
Congratulations to those who got on at 9/1 earlier in the campaign.
Enjoy your winnigs.
As I said earlier my daughter is getting a new car. In my very unsuccessful gambling career this is one of the few times I saw an extraordinary price and hammered it. I just need them to get to 326 now.
Know whom your counter-party is. As such; please use PayPal to fund junior's services. If in doubt I can assure you that pulpie has been through said experience (so may be available to advise)....
Very nice to see, with one obvious exception, that all the Labour supporters have stuck around and accepted the result with good grace. It's a reflection on their integrity.
@ewenmacaskill: Labour's defeated Scottish leader Jim Murphy not standing down. to stay on as leader and fight for seat in Scottish Parliament next year.
Tories are on 36.8% now. They got 36.9% in 2010. I think the remaining 14 results will take them above 37%, so an increased vote share in GB compared to the last election.
Are the LibDems now basically dead? 8 MPs and a pitiful share of the vote - where can they go from here? I assume the media will soon enough just stop talking about them. They have the same number of MPs as the DUP and look set to be as relevant! For so long they stood for nothing and everything. One hung parliament was all it took to expose that. They'll fade from our memories PDQ I suspect.
And the killer will be how much they get cut off from cash - less short money fewer donors
They'll now be getting Short money, which they lost when they went into government.
Obviously good night for the tories, wiped out the lib dems south of the trent.
Mixed night for labour, net gains in england but not enough to offset the bad losses in Scotland. It's not a total wipeout and it's a good base to build from. Get a proper leader willing to put in the hard yards and victory in 2020 looks likely. The brand is still strong.
Lib Dem and UKIP the big losers of the night; the insurgent purple peoples army was routed by the voting system, and failed to breakthrough everywhere. Farange's career is over. Carswell must be regretting his defection.
Last euros will be the historical highpoint for them
Vote gone from 3% to 12%, think you need to put prejudices to one side as it costs you money.
But only 1 seat with a vastly reduced majority, Farange finished. This was their time.
I think it's a dreadful shame, I'd have much preferred to see them break through into the mainstream. They represent a strain of opinion that is becoming isolated from the process.
There will be a pretend referendum on a pretend renegotiation where much like in Scotland where Devomax wasn't offered, a much looser EFA type deal which people would like will not be offered.
But UKIP in its current form is done.
Losing a referendum worked out OK for the SNP. Even better if they can persuade the "out" side that they were robbed.
@ewenmacaskill: Labour's defeated Scottish leader Jim Murphy not standing down. to stay on as leader and fight for seat in Scottish Parliament next year.
@ewenmacaskill: Labour's defeated Scottish leader Jim Murphy not standing down. to stay on as leader and fight for seat in Scottish Parliament next year.
Laura Kuenessberg is a shining beacon in the BBC. She has stayed awake right through, continues to talk immense sense, with passion and looks gorgeous.
Andyjs Parts of GOwer are pretty upmarket. Conundrum now for Blues. Do they slash welsh seat numbers to equalize constituencies having done so well here?
I would say yes - since the overall boundaries commission recommendations (which WILL get through this time) will heavily favour them.
It will be particularly encouraging for Cameron that he has won this GE from the centre.
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
Obviously good night for the tories, wiped out the lib dems south of the trent.
Mixed night for labour, net gains in england but not enough to offset the bad losses in Scotland. It's not a total wipeout and it's a good base to build from. Get a proper leader willing to put in the hard yards and victory in 2020 looks likely. The brand is still strong.
Lib Dem and UKIP the big losers of the night; the insurgent purple peoples army was routed by the voting system, and failed to breakthrough everywhere. Farange's career is over. Carswell must be regretting his defection.
Last euros will be the historical highpoint for them
Vote gone from 3% to 12%, think you need to put prejudices to one side as it costs you money.
But only 1 seat with a vastly reduced majority, Farange finished. This was their time.
.
You what?? They were coming from next to nowhere in most seats. They are now the main alternative in 100-odd seats, and have an MP in the HoC voted in twice on the UKIP ticket.
There are Euros in 2019, a year before 2020. New leader choice is crucial but they can push on.
Comments
Heart of stone etc.
Too shrill
Too tainted
Too vacant
NPstillXMP seems to have taken a hell of a beating in Broxtowe.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iE8RU4rVmDmtRhjo1Ws3Om3IjrmgUVSbcW-tO7cY-RE/edit#gid=0
The two remarkable Tory triumphs Vale of Clwyd and Gower are possible because UKIP bit a chunk of out Labour’s vote. Both constituencies have very affluent portions, and depressed portions.
Outwith Scotland, Gower is the stand-out result. This has been continuously Labour since 1906.
The Tories have never held it before.
What time did you leave in the end?
zzzzzzzzzz
We shouldn't mock him for this, it was tragic in its nobility.
I assume they will eventually rebuild as a protest vote but it'll take a generation.
Osborne is a genius....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000046
Sky say Con 318
BBC say Con 321
Thank God i avoided the urge at 2am to bet against a Tory Maj at 1.33 nearly stuck a Grand on it to win £330.
That really would have topped off a very bad lefty evening.
Congratulations to those who got on at 9/1 earlier in the campaign.
Enjoy your winnigs.
Please stick around, we make good sparring partners!
'E's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This Lib Dem bird is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
Ref Monty Python and the great late Lady.
So they go back to councils, then hope for a good by-election...
Can't see them on the Beeb site
What numbers are Con and Lab at broadly?
36-31
I think it's a dreadful shame, I'd have much preferred to see them break through into the mainstream. They represent a strain of opinion that is becoming isolated from the process.
There will be a pretend referendum on a pretend renegotiation where much like in Scotland where Devomax wasn't offered, a much looser EFA type deal which people would like will not be offered.
But UKIP in its current form is done.
Parts of GOwer are pretty upmarket. Conundrum now for Blues. Do they slash welsh seat numbers to equalize constituencies having done so well here?
The Cons did above expectation in Wales by retaining their Cardiff seat and gaining two Labour seats. Winning Brecon from the LDs was always probable.
Plaid are very sensitive this morning at being called the 4th party in Wales - coming in behind UKIP. Labour is quite concerned at UKIP getting constituency seats at next year's Assembly elections.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000852
Since he became leader of the Tories, David Cameron seen off Charles Kennedy, Tony Blair, Ming Campbell, Gordon Brown, and now Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage.
And he has given the Tories their first majority government for 23 years.
Turns out, for all the abuse I and everyone else has given him over the years, he's actually a bloody leader isn't he?
https://twitter.com/gerryhassan/status/596600570716237825
Good old FPTP!!
First Rule of betting on Political-Betting:
Know whom your counter-party is. As such; please use PayPal to fund junior's services. If in doubt I can assure you that pulpie has been through said experience (so may be available to advise)....
Maybe they'll massively undershoot the Green figure?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results
Maybe some people placed bets on that outcome.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results
UKIP took 13% of the vote, and a percentage of that vote would've been the LibLabConner's who've peeled away from the Tory right.
I think Cameron should aim to occupy the centre ground a la Blair. But do it with the Tory principles of sound money at its core.
As I said last night, I'd like Cameron to go big on helping the disabled and the many, many carers out there who need help. Be persuasive in making the case that money needs to be diverted to the most needy in society - it'll be the right thing to do and will be immensely popular/would change the face of the Tory party.
There are Euros in 2019, a year before 2020. New leader choice is crucial but they can push on.