politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mea
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I think it's the SNP which has destroyed Labour in Scotland.saddo said:0 -
£50K on Labour earlier today. And an old fellow, well dressed former accountant in Scotland, paid a wodge over in cash on the Tories?Flightpathl said:
OK - who has made loadsamoney and who has lost a fortune?Andrew said:Spread con midpoints: spin 317, ig 317, sprx 314.5.
And in a dim memory - I recall reports of an anonymous punter betting a fortune on some sort of majority. But cannot remember on who?
Can anyone remember on which party?0 -
That reminds me - I had a bet with Tim on East Dunbartonshire. At the time the bet was made, neither of us were considering an SNP gain.Moses_ said:It's on nights like this I feel some pity for Tim late of this Parish. His head must have exploded at 10pm and 5 seconds tonight.
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Nuneaton coming ...0
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Deep down I just had a feeling that the economy would swing it . Despite what you hear on TV ordinary people do have more money in their pocket. I have had a rather large bet on the Tories in Eastleigh . This was just based on the complete lack of lib dem posters in Eastleigh .0
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Don;t feel sorry for him. He is quids in with this result.Stark_Dawning said:It's Russell Brand I feel sorry for. Clearly he was duped by Labour on a false prospectus.
Another 5 years of moaning and groaning on youtube, in books and movies...all available from your local multi-national tax dodgy mega corp.
Think of all his twitter followers who are going to be super pissed and be even more engaged with his carefully branded operation.0 -
Luke Bailey @imbadatlife 8 mins8 minutes ago
Labour candidates not even bothering to concede, just deleting Twitter accounts and heading into the sunset. #GE20150 -
Tories won England. Result in Scotland has made no difference.Philip_Thompson said:
Thank you SNP - Yours, English Tories.Dair said:DOUGIE ALEXANDER HAS LOST. His face says it on BBC Scotland. No way he has held with that face.
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I had a bit on that, and on Shadsys Lab under 25% band.numbertwelve said:As much as I have always thought Ed is Crap, I never, ever thought he would do worse than Gordon Brown
Rather regretting going a bit wobbly and putting £50 on Lab most seats this week...
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Paging Alan Partridge. Mr Partridge. Message from Mr W Churchill: 'Trust the British people'. (They know a loser when they see one.)0
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Gravitation said:
That would be nearly as hilarious as Balls losing. Nearly.Chameleon said:Tory only non SNP eat in Scotland?
They're drawing more Labour and DNV than Con IMO.RobinWiggs said:
Kippers stopped a Tory gain - this could be a theme in a number of seats and prevent DC from having an otherwise solid majority.AndyJS said:Astounding result in Wrexham.
Without Farage on the scene, they may well now crumble.0 -
can anyone tell me how the pollsters have called this so wrong??????0
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It bloody wouldn't. I've got a bet on a tie in Scottish seats between Labour and the Conservatives. I don't want to lose it that way.Gravitation said:
That would be nearly as hilarious as Balls losing. Nearly.Chameleon said:Tory only non SNP eat in Scotland?
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UKIP could still win 10 seats without Farage in Labour's rustbelt.0
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Anyone heard from Mr Sykes I worry for his safety?0
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You're assuming UKIP took votes only from the Tories and not Labour. Results from tonight already suggest the theory that UKIP are just purple Tories should be consigned to the bin.RobinWiggs said:
Kippers stopped a Tory gain - this could be a theme in a number of seats and prevent DC from having an otherwise solid majority.AndyJS said:Astounding result in Wrexham.
Without Farage on the scene, they may well now crumble.
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Rambling too much drink, i meant the lib dem votes are dreadful in the northeast, so the votes must be elswhere.NoEasyDay said:
Disagree with you slightly sir, the results notheast wise are dreadful. Which says to me the votes have gone elsewhere. To incumbents.rcs1000 said:It's a Conservative majority, and I reckon the LDs are going to be on 8-12.
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Apparently, DUP hold Lagan Valley0
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I don't think we will be hearing the phrase "pb hodges" for a while. Alongside JackW, Robert Smithson and Southam Observer, Dan Hodges had the courage to call it early and very much contrary to the prevailing narrative, and then not waver for a moment, even as the polls refused to comply. His stock has risen immensely.0
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Online panels are not the general populationkjohnw said:can anyone tell me how the pollsters have called this so wrong??????
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Do you have an opinion on whether Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister?JackW said:0 -
Feeling vindicated? How did you know?JackW said:0 -
Your ARSE was a shocker, it went way too low on ConJackW said:
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Yes, we are agreed on that one. I hope the Tories can do that - and that they can be very, very careful in regards to 12bn welfare cuts.JosiasJessop said:
You mean the WCA, I assume? ATOS were the provider of the WCA.The_Apocalypse said:
I mean for ATOS to be reformed so that many disabled people aren't chucked off benefits, when they actually need help.JosiasJessop said:
ATOS has already gone for the Work Capability Assessment. They were introduced by Labour, removed by the coalition. :-)The_Apocalypse said:
This, fantastic post. I also hope ATOS is reformed.Fenster said:If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Work_Capability_Assessment
We need to ensure the replacement works better. Although even just working would be better...
In that case, I agree. AIUI, Labour arranged for ATOS to get money for every person chucked off the benefit. It was therefore in their interest to find as many people as possible as not being disabled. At the very least, that needs reforming, albeit carefully.0 -
arf.RobD said:
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Result still hasn't appeared on Sky website for some reason.Sunil_Prasannan said:Apparently, DUP hold Lagan Valley
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Yes, for Labour. Not so much for MIliband. My certainty was based on polls. So if the polls were wrong - and have been wrong for years - why should I have not held the views I did.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You seemed absolutely certain of labour success - would you accept that this is a disaster for labour and Ed Miliband in particularsurbiton said:UKIP is hurting Labour.
This brings into question the database pollsters use and their weightings.
It is not that the run up to the election the weightings were wrong; it has been not representative for sometime, probably for all these 5 years.0 -
1992 - great year met the women who became my wife - also saw a great victory by John Major - Pollsters fail to pick up on the British ( English ) Reticence that they feel actually economically better off - a position that they do nor wish to put at risk..0
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LOL why are BBC talking about 'negotiations' - we have the majority BBC know that!0
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I admit it, we're fecked. Off to bed in a very bad mood. Worked hard on the ground, but what was the point.May just as well be a keyboard warrior.
I picked up doorsteps that SNP was worrying people, as was a dislike of Ed.
There will have to be change in Labour0 -
Looks like it's getting very close to an overall majority now.0
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Bathing in champagne with the Pussycat Dolls.KentRising said:Where's JackW?
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Stick to coke, hookers and monkey tennis...ahhhha.....Prodicus said:Paging Alan Partridge. Mr Partridge. Message from Mr W Churchill: 'Trust the British people'. (They know a loser when they see one.)
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Remember tim etal 'PBTories, always wrong, all the time'Flockers_pb said:I don't think we will be hearing the phrase "pb hodges" for a while. Alongside JackW, Robert Smithson and Southam Observer, Dan Hodges had the courage to call it early and very much contrary to the prevailing narrative, and then not waver for a moment, even as the polls refused to comply. His stock has risen immensely.
I'm saying nothing....
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The votes might not be anywhere...NoEasyDay said:
Rambling too much drink, i meant the lib dem votes are dreadful in the northeast, so the votes must be elswhere.NoEasyDay said:
Disagree with you slightly sir, the results notheast wise are dreadful. Which says to me the votes have gone elsewhere. To incumbents.rcs1000 said:It's a Conservative majority, and I reckon the LDs are going to be on 8-12.
But we need to see some results from (previously) LD held seats.0 -
The polling failure is extraordinary.0
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Don't you rather think it's time to permit the return of Audrey Anne who predicted all this and who was banned for doing so?0
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Did you pick up that people thought Labour were too "left-wing"? I'm starting to have second thoughts on these results, but I genuinely haven't heard people saying things like that at all.valleyboy said:I admit it, we're fecked. Off to bed in a very bad mood. Worked hard on the ground, but what was the point.May just as well be a keyboard warrior.
I picked up doorsteps that SNP was worrying people, as was a dislike of Ed.
There will have to be change in Labour0 -
BBC Scotland report from Orkney and Zetland indicates SNP GAIN.
The letter Zog is to return to the language!!!0 -
Bad news for the conservativesAve_it said:BALLS gone - Ave it projects by 4,000
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Phone polls came out with Tory leads in recent weeksThe_Apocalypse said:It's time not trust any poll (even PB's ICM) for the next five years.
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Breitbart reporting a recount in Twickenham.0
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For every vote labour getting from libdem it looks like theyre losing 2 to ukip.0
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I'd agree that the LDs thought of the country first in 2010 and deserved better. However their vote is splitting to UKIP and Green which suggests they were only ever a protest party.kle4 said:I really do feel sorry for the LDs. Sure they were going to take a huge hit, but they really don't deserve this big a hit. But it seems the british public disagree with me on that.
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What time is the result expected in Morley?Gravitation said:
That would be nearly as hilarious as Balls losing. Nearly.Chameleon said:Tory only non SNP eat in Scotland?
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And David Cameron in EnglandThe_Apocalypse said:
I think it's the SNP which has destroyed Labour in Scotland.saddo said:0 -
Spreads just about to touch con 320......0
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@bbckamal: Lib Dem sources now admitting exit poll looking correct. Cd win as few as 10 seats. Some big names under pressure #GE20150
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But not these sort of leads. None were Tory majority.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Phone polls came out with Tory leads in recent weeksThe_Apocalypse said:It's time not trust any poll (even PB's ICM) for the next five years.
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ITV Granada Reports @GranadaReports 3 min3 minuti fa
Conservative Party sources are confident they can run Labour's Lindsay Hoyle close in Chorley0 -
I just laid £2 of Lab maj @ 939-1Casino_Royale said:Looks like it's getting very close to an overall majority now.
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Tavish Scott thinks Carbuncle will win.Dair said:BBC Scotland report from Orkney and Zetland indicates SNP GAIN.
The letter Zog is to return to the language!!!
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FTPA to be repealed?0
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Marr talking about the FTPA. Hopefully a Tory government will repeal it.0
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According to Sky ticker stats:
10 seats so far (7 Lab holds, 3 Con holds)
Con +2%
Lab +3%
[Lib Dems collapsed to 5%]
Given there's twice the Labour seats, +2/+3 is good for the blues, but only if that's in line with the other 640 seats.0 -
There'd be a queue to do that.foxinsoxuk said:
I would happily dance a jig on his grave.Scott_P said:Alastair fucking Campbell on ITV.
Looks like a corpse
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Polling got Scotland right.SouthamObserver said:The polling failure is extraordinary.
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I reported back 2 weeks ago that it was a HUGE factor on the Torbay doorsteps. The CCHQ leaflets absolutely hammered that theme.AndyJS said:Maybe the threat of Sturgeon running England & Wales has caused a big reaction with voters in those countries.
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I confess, I wish I voted Tory nowCasino_Royale said:This is just utterly astonishing.
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He only cares about book sales and youtube hits - don't feel sorry for an intelligent man playing the fool for his own benefit.Stark_Dawning said:It's Russell Brand I feel sorry for. Clearly he was duped by Labour on a false prospectus.
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Shame, he'd be a good Speaker.AndreaParma_82 said:ITV Granada Reports @GranadaReports 3 min3 minuti fa
Conservative Party sources are confident they can run Labour's Lindsay Hoyle close in Chorley0 -
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 18 sec 19 secondi fa
Conservative source says Vale of Clwyd is 'in play' and on knife-edge; Gower is 'exciting' and Brecon and Radnor is theirs.0 -
Scotland will vote for independence in 2018.
3 years of the Tories running the country with no Scottish MPs whilst Scotland has voted even more overwhelming for left leaning party than ever before will probably be enough to persuade another 5% to vote Yes.0 -
They were wrong.Slackbladder said:Remember tim etal 'PBTories, always wrong, all the time'
Just not in the direction the Labour shills were prematurely gloating over.0 -
Mr. 30, circa 4.30am, if no recount.0
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I don't think people do generally feel better off. But I think they have more trust that they will eventually get to that position under the Tories than under Labour, who let us not forget, gubbed the economy.TimGeo said:1992 - great year met the women who became my wife - also saw a great victory by John Major - Pollsters fail to pick up on the British ( English ) Reticence that they feel actually economically better off - a position that they do nor wish to put at risk..
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SPIN 319
Effective Maj 323
But note Betfair majority = 3260 -
Fk'em....now for the BBC Charter licence renewal discussions!!JosiasJessop said:Okay, R5L headlines at 01.30 utterly biased towards Labour. Leads with Khan's win and the other Labour wins, then negative stories for the Conservatives.
Ridiculous, on this of all nights.
Seriously I genuinely think this will be incomprehensible to R5 media types....not deliberate bias or any sinsiter, just total incomprehension of the worldview expressed by the results so far0 -
Press Association @pressassoc 8 mins8 minutes ago
Conservative sources say the party is set to gain Walsall South from Labour. #pointers #GE2015
Woah.......0 -
Some asking where the polls were wrong - Essentially two points :
1. Shy Tories.
2. Differential turnout favouring both the Tories and SNP.
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In all fairness, Hodges' reasoning was simple and sound - a strengthening economy and a Tory leader who was vastly more respected than his Labour rival. The rest just flimflam.Flockers_pb said:I don't think we will be hearing the phrase "pb hodges" for a while. Alongside JackW, Robert Smithson and Southam Observer, Dan Hodges had the courage to call it early and very much contrary to the prevailing narrative, and then not waver for a moment, even as the polls refused to comply. His stock has risen immensely.
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Carmichael - Sweet Jesus0
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We are about to see Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron for the first time.0
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Anyone heard from one Mike Smithson, and labour most seats ? Labour spartan army on the ground, how important is to have peeps on the ground. "There is no evidence that the tory wasted vote has gone"0
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Is he still tweeting?Slackbladder said:Remember tim etal 'PBTories, always wrong, all the time'
I'm saying nothing....0 -
can we stop the waffle on the uk constitution and actually get some results reported or info such as Nuneaton, Walsall etc - should I ditch the bbc coverage?0
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SDLP hold Foyle.
SF hold West Tyrone.0 -
And we will get Dudley N too...Slackbladder said:Press Association @pressassoc 8 mins8 minutes ago
Conservative sources say the party is set to gain Walsall South from Labour. #pointers #GE2015
Woah.......0 -
@Tissue_Price TAKE A BOW0
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That website is god awful. Filled with some of the worst, most hate-filled people.LucyJones said:Breitbart reporting a recount in Twickenham.
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What Labour AND the Tories have to ask themselves...why are voters who both would expect are going to UKIP.
Simply sneering and calling them closet racists and fruit cakes doesn't work and also there is more going on than that.0 -
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ahem...Pulpstar said:@JackW Take a BOW
@Rodcrosby TAKE A BOW !0 -
Ed is Crap.0
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Who said back labour for an overall majority at 5/4 last year?0
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@paulhutcheon: Looks like @scottishlabour will win one seat: edin south0
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Balthasarsfeast said:
So who first suggested Twickenham would go Conservative and was she or he greeted with derision or did you place your bets? TSE?
Hat tip?
I might have mentioned it once or twice...Sunil_Prasannan said:Could individual voter registration have been a factor in these results?
In 1992 the register was affected by the poll tax with much the same effect.0
