Spread con midpoints: spin 317, ig 317, sprx 314.5.
OK - who has made loadsamoney and who has lost a fortune?
And in a dim memory - I recall reports of an anonymous punter betting a fortune on some sort of majority. But cannot remember on who? Can anyone remember on which party?
£50K on Labour earlier today. And an old fellow, well dressed former accountant in Scotland, paid a wodge over in cash on the Tories?
Deep down I just had a feeling that the economy would swing it . Despite what you hear on TV ordinary people do have more money in their pocket. I have had a rather large bet on the Tories in Eastleigh . This was just based on the complete lack of lib dem posters in Eastleigh .
Kippers stopped a Tory gain - this could be a theme in a number of seats and prevent DC from having an otherwise solid majority.
Without Farage on the scene, they may well now crumble.
You're assuming UKIP took votes only from the Tories and not Labour. Results from tonight already suggest the theory that UKIP are just purple Tories should be consigned to the bin.
I don't think we will be hearing the phrase "pb hodges" for a while. Alongside JackW, Robert Smithson and Southam Observer, Dan Hodges had the courage to call it early and very much contrary to the prevailing narrative, and then not waver for a moment, even as the polls refused to comply. His stock has risen immensely.
If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.
This, fantastic post. I also hope ATOS is reformed.
ATOS has already gone for the Work Capability Assessment. They were introduced by Labour, removed by the coalition. :-)
We need to ensure the replacement works better. Although even just working would be better...
I mean for ATOS to be reformed so that many disabled people aren't chucked off benefits, when they actually need help.
You mean the WCA, I assume? ATOS were the provider of the WCA.
In that case, I agree. AIUI, Labour arranged for ATOS to get money for every person chucked off the benefit. It was therefore in their interest to find as many people as possible as not being disabled. At the very least, that needs reforming, albeit carefully.
Yes, we are agreed on that one. I hope the Tories can do that - and that they can be very, very careful in regards to 12bn welfare cuts.
This brings into question the database pollsters use and their weightings.
It is not that the run up to the election the weightings were wrong; it has been not representative for sometime, probably for all these 5 years.
You seemed absolutely certain of labour success - would you accept that this is a disaster for labour and Ed Miliband in particular
Yes, for Labour. Not so much for MIliband. My certainty was based on polls. So if the polls were wrong - and have been wrong for years - why should I have not held the views I did.
1992 - great year met the women who became my wife - also saw a great victory by John Major - Pollsters fail to pick up on the British ( English ) Reticence that they feel actually economically better off - a position that they do nor wish to put at risk..
I admit it, we're fecked. Off to bed in a very bad mood. Worked hard on the ground, but what was the point.May just as well be a keyboard warrior. I picked up doorsteps that SNP was worrying people, as was a dislike of Ed. There will have to be change in Labour
I don't think we will be hearing the phrase "pb hodges" for a while. Alongside JackW, Robert Smithson and Southam Observer, Dan Hodges had the courage to call it early and very much contrary to the prevailing narrative, and then not waver for a moment, even as the polls refused to comply. His stock has risen immensely.
Remember tim etal 'PBTories, always wrong, all the time'
I admit it, we're fecked. Off to bed in a very bad mood. Worked hard on the ground, but what was the point.May just as well be a keyboard warrior. I picked up doorsteps that SNP was worrying people, as was a dislike of Ed. There will have to be change in Labour
Did you pick up that people thought Labour were too "left-wing"? I'm starting to have second thoughts on these results, but I genuinely haven't heard people saying things like that at all.
I really do feel sorry for the LDs. Sure they were going to take a huge hit, but they really don't deserve this big a hit. But it seems the british public disagree with me on that.
I'd agree that the LDs thought of the country first in 2010 and deserved better. However their vote is splitting to UKIP and Green which suggests they were only ever a protest party.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 18 sec 19 secondi fa Conservative source says Vale of Clwyd is 'in play' and on knife-edge; Gower is 'exciting' and Brecon and Radnor is theirs.
Scotland will vote for independence in 2018. 3 years of the Tories running the country with no Scottish MPs whilst Scotland has voted even more overwhelming for left leaning party than ever before will probably be enough to persuade another 5% to vote Yes.
1992 - great year met the women who became my wife - also saw a great victory by John Major - Pollsters fail to pick up on the British ( English ) Reticence that they feel actually economically better off - a position that they do nor wish to put at risk..
I don't think people do generally feel better off. But I think they have more trust that they will eventually get to that position under the Tories than under Labour, who let us not forget, gubbed the economy.
Okay, R5L headlines at 01.30 utterly biased towards Labour. Leads with Khan's win and the other Labour wins, then negative stories for the Conservatives.
Ridiculous, on this of all nights.
Fk'em....now for the BBC Charter licence renewal discussions!!
Seriously I genuinely think this will be incomprehensible to R5 media types....not deliberate bias or any sinsiter, just total incomprehension of the worldview expressed by the results so far
I don't think we will be hearing the phrase "pb hodges" for a while. Alongside JackW, Robert Smithson and Southam Observer, Dan Hodges had the courage to call it early and very much contrary to the prevailing narrative, and then not waver for a moment, even as the polls refused to comply. His stock has risen immensely.
In all fairness, Hodges' reasoning was simple and sound - a strengthening economy and a Tory leader who was vastly more respected than his Labour rival. The rest just flimflam.
Anyone heard from one Mike Smithson, and labour most seats ? Labour spartan army on the ground, how important is to have peeps on the ground. "There is no evidence that the tory wasted vote has gone"
can we stop the waffle on the uk constitution and actually get some results reported or info such as Nuneaton, Walsall etc - should I ditch the bbc coverage?
Comments
Another 5 years of moaning and groaning on youtube, in books and movies...all available from your local multi-national tax dodgy mega corp.
Think of all his twitter followers who are going to be super pissed and be even more engaged with his carefully branded operation.
Labour candidates not even bothering to concede, just deleting Twitter accounts and heading into the sunset. #GE2015
Rather regretting going a bit wobbly and putting £50 on Lab most seats this week...
I picked up doorsteps that SNP was worrying people, as was a dislike of Ed.
There will have to be change in Labour
I'm saying nothing....
But we need to see some results from (previously) LD held seats.
The letter Zog is to return to the language!!!
Conservative Party sources are confident they can run Labour's Lindsay Hoyle close in Chorley
10 seats so far (7 Lab holds, 3 Con holds)
Con +2%
Lab +3%
[Lib Dems collapsed to 5%]
Given there's twice the Labour seats, +2/+3 is good for the blues, but only if that's in line with the other 640 seats.
Conservative source says Vale of Clwyd is 'in play' and on knife-edge; Gower is 'exciting' and Brecon and Radnor is theirs.
3 years of the Tories running the country with no Scottish MPs whilst Scotland has voted even more overwhelming for left leaning party than ever before will probably be enough to persuade another 5% to vote Yes.
Just not in the direction the Labour shills were prematurely gloating over.
Effective Maj 323
But note Betfair majority = 326
Seriously I genuinely think this will be incomprehensible to R5 media types....not deliberate bias or any sinsiter, just total incomprehension of the worldview expressed by the results so far
Conservative sources say the party is set to gain Walsall South from Labour. #pointers #GE2015
Woah.......
1. Shy Tories.
2. Differential turnout favouring both the Tories and SNP.
SF hold West Tyrone.
Simply sneering and calling them closet racists and fruit cakes doesn't work and also there is more going on than that.
@Rodcrosby TAKE A BOW !
In 1992 the register was affected by the poll tax with much the same effect.