Will the result tonight ruin this site. What is the point of any discussion prior to the exit poll. It's all meaningless. The polls were just so amazingly wrong.
0% Con to Lab swing (rounded) nationwide so far, and that is with a majority of the seats declared being in the region where Labour were supposed to go forwards the most!
If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.
This, fantastic post. I also hope ATOS is reformed.
ATOS has already gone for the Work Capability Assessment. They were introduced by Labour, removed by the coalition. :-)
My labour leaning friends in London went tory. I have been hearing grumbling for weeks from labour voters which defied the polls. An incredible set of results so far.
Okay, R5L headlines at 01.30 utterly biased towards Labour. Leads with Khan's win and the other Labour wins, then negative stories for the Conservatives.
UKIP must have got a ton of votes from Labour for them to be on 16% and the Tories to have gone up 6%. We might have to look at some Labour-UKIP races now.
Will the result tonight ruin this site. What is the point of any discussion prior to the exit poll. It's all meaningless. The polls were just so amazingly wrong.
Ruin it?! It was ruined by the obsessive nitpicking over polls, this could save it
If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.
Yes. Brilliant post. Magnanimity in victory and generosity to those in need.
You have to feel sorry for politicans... they can hardly say.'yep, we're screwed tonight;
Haha! I agree with almost the entire sentiment, except for the "feeling sorry for them" part. They chose a profession in which they get to tell ridiculous red-faced lies to the rest of us, tonight is a night when we can all enjoy the preposterousness of it all without wanting to slap them while they're doing it, because we can see in their haunted eyes that they know it's crap too. "Not wanting to slap them" is about as close to sympathy as I can muster for a pol.
(With apologies to Nick Palmer, who generally seems to set "politician mode" to the OFF position before posting on here, which I greatly admire.)
A 95% Confidence-Interval does not mean - erm - on average that 19 out of twenty polls are accurate. It just means that they are close enough to the mean to be credible. Can I say congrats to Prof Fisher for calling the election months ago!
Spread con midpoints: spin 317, ig 317, sprx 314.5.
OK - who has made loadsamoney and who has lost a fortune?
And in a dim memory - I recall reports of an anonymous punter betting a fortune on some sort of majority. But cannot remember on who? Can anyone remember on which party?
If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.
Yes. Brilliant post. Magnanimity in victory and generosity to those in need.
Disability benefits will be taxed were the rumours.
If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.
Yes. Brilliant post. Magnanimity in victory and generosity to those in need.
Spread con midpoints: spin 317, ig 317, sprx 314.5.
OK - who has made loadsamoney and who has lost a fortune?
And in a dim memory - I recall reports of an anonymous punter betting a fortune on some sort of majority. But cannot remember on who? Can anyone remember on which party?
Con majority. Their son was trying (but failed) to get it back. They now may have £240,000 in their pocket...
If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.
This, fantastic post. I also hope ATOS is reformed.
ATOS has already gone for the Work Capability Assessment. They were introduced by Labour, removed by the coalition. :-)
We need to ensure the replacement works better. Although even just working would be better...
I mean for ATOS to be reformed so that many disabled people aren't chucked off benefits, when they actually need help.
You mean the WCA, I assume? ATOS were the provider of the WCA.
In that case, I agree. AIUI, Labour arranged for ATOS to get money for every person chucked off the benefit. It was therefore in their interest to find as many people as possible as not being disabled. At the very least, that needs reforming, albeit carefully.
So it is clear. The Tories are the vampires successful sucking the blood from the Liberal Democrats.
Labour has taken one hell of a beating. There's no getting round it.
To be fair, you never went with the recent hubris.
Labour made no case for change. And no economic case at all. And then with Ed at the helm..... You just had to forget the polls and go with gut instinct.
Comments
UKIP on 16%
Nailed on... they said...
Ridiculous, on this of all nights.
Lynton Crosby is a freaking genius.
BTW Crosby Textor do all their own polling
We might have to look at some Labour-UKIP races now.
This brings into question the database pollsters use and their weightings.
It is not that the run up to the election the weightings were wrong; it has been not representative for sometime, probably for all these 5 years.
I'm starting to doubt whether celebrity endorsements are accurate gauges of public opinion.
In fact, it's quite the opposite.
(With apologies to Nick Palmer, who generally seems to set "politician mode" to the OFF position before posting on here, which I greatly admire.)
A 95% Confidence-Interval does not mean - erm - on average that 19 out of twenty polls are accurate. It just means that they are close enough to the mean to be credible. Can I say congrats to Prof Fisher for calling the election months ago!
And in a dim memory - I recall reports of an anonymous punter betting a fortune on some sort of majority. But cannot remember on who?
Can anyone remember on which party?
Without Farage on the scene, they may well now crumble.
I didn't expect such a bad result for Labour.
In that case, I agree. AIUI, Labour arranged for ATOS to get money for every person chucked off the benefit. It was therefore in their interest to find as many people as possible as not being disabled. At the very least, that needs reforming, albeit carefully.
Cameron is too. Destroyed Labour in Scotland and possibly England. Destroyed Lib Dems.
Hat tip?
Labour made no case for change. And no economic case at all. And then with Ed at the helm..... You just had to forget the polls and go with gut instinct.
Sunderland x 3
Newcastle x 2
Wandsworth x 3
Wrexham
Swindon North
Lagan Valley
Current swing: 0.5% from Con to Lab
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results