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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mea

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  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    Con HOLD Nuneaton. Massive swing to Con. Ashcroft predicted 5% Lab win.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    NUNEATON less MAJ than expected - UKIP could stop our overall majority!!!
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Were you up for NUNEATON?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Levenson charter dead in water
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nuneaton:

    Con 20,827
    Lab 15,945
    UKIP 6,582
    Green 1,281
    LD 816
    TUSC 194
    ED 104
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    DavidL said:

    Is the BBC just being rubbish or are there still no more mainland results? Some of us have work in the morning.

    Get on SKY.

    Con HOLD Nuneaton!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Clegg to just hold Hallam, allegedly
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    SouthamObserver said:

    Cameron really has to make a big, bold offer to Scotland now. The future of the Union is in his hands.

    F**k 'em. He should give them independence first thing on Monday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Be Jesus....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    YES! HOLD Nuneaton.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    Spoiled Ballot analysis in Paisley South is hilarious. Watching the faces, Mhari laughing her arse off, Dougie wants the ground to swallow him up.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    dr_spyn said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 22s22 seconds ago
    Recount in Hartlepool. Understood to be between Labour and UKIP.
    0 retweets 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet Favorite
    More

    Tipped here earlier today...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    If 1992 was the year of the shy Tories, this must be the year of the "ashamed to be Tories".
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Nuneaton CON hold, swing Lab to Con 3%
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    3% swing to Con
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    NUNEATON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Conservatives hold Nuneaton swing of 3% to Tories, terrible results for Labour in the Midlands
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Prodicus said:

    Were you up for NUNEATON?

    DOUBLED the CON majority

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    I think we know why Labour pulled Lucy Powell off the telly now....
  • dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    3% swing to CON in Nuneaton
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    This is astonishing. A 3% swing to Cons at Nuneaton. WOW!!!

    Tory majority? 1992?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Swing to the Tories? Utterly amazing.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    UKIP over 2.5 2.56 on BF...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SouthamObserver said:

    Cameron really has to make a big, bold offer to Scotland now. The future of the Union is in his hands.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if that's exactly what he does tomorrow morning.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Nuneaton result - sees lab swing to tory!!!!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Actually WE'RE ALLLLLLLLLLLRIIIIIIIIIGHTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Nuneaton - another swing TO the Tories, another LD deposit in the bin.
    There's a pattern emerging here...
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Amazing. Labour vore DOWN in Nuneaton...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nuneaton: wow. An overall majority looks very possible.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Going by the Nuneaton result Labour might fail to take Warwickshire North where the Tory majority is 54 votes.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690
    Did UKIP just help the Tories retain Nuneaton?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    NEW THREAD

  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    theres going to be a Tory majority isnt there? Wow
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    3% swing to Con in Nuneaton

    LDs annihilated
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    3% labour to conservative in Nuneaton
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    surbiton said:

    If 1992 was the year of the shy Tories, this must be the year of the "ashamed to be Tories".

    It's true. There's an awful lot of people out there who really feel 'ashamed' to vote Tory. Why?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2015
    surbiton said:

    If 1992 was the year of the shy Tories, this must be the year of the "ashamed to be Tories".

    You are beginning to sound like Hazel Blear.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Anyone whispered the word (sshhh...) 'landslide' yet?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    I can't remember when I last went to bed pissing myself laughing, but I'm doing so now.

    'Night all
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    surbiton said:

    If 1992 was the year of the shy Tories, this must be the year of the "ashamed to be Tories".

    Walking around early this week with a rosette - I found very many proud Tories.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Dair said:

    Spoiled Ballot analysis in Paisley South is hilarious. Watching the faces, Mhari laughing her arse off, Dougie wants the ground to swallow him up.

    Declared?
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    This is like a dream. Amazing.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Nuneaton spectacular knocks conmaj down to 2.88. Spreads up to 320.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Nuneaton swing to Tories 3% , UKIP up 14%.

    Seriously there is a big Labour to UKIP swing going on.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread new thread
  • bazzerbazzer Posts: 44
    is this nuneaton swing enough for a majority?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Wow. Hartlepool. Incredible.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Net 0.05% swing to Lab - and this is with their supposed best regions being he majority of constituencies.
  • Flockers_pbFlockers_pb Posts: 204
    Southam is right. Tomorrow we wake up, and there is a Conservative England and an SNP Scotland. If the Union is to survive, there needs to be a new constitutional settlement. After the party, the hangover!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    There has got to be a chance now that we are looking at slim Con majority?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    I am tired and I need sleep and I have a carpet being fitted early tomorrow morning that I absolutely have to be up for but

    I WANT BALLS TONIGHT

    and I think I'm just going to be too tempted to stay up for it.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    It is important to note that while Red Liberals did go to Labour, "blue" Liberals went to the Tories to shore them up.

    The Liberal Democratic party is finished.

    Will we have a Union at the end of 2020 ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Clwyd South 0.7% Lab to CON swing...
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    SeanT said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    KentRising said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    AndyJS said:

    Astounding result in Wrexham.

    Kippers stopped a Tory gain - this could be a theme in a number of seats and prevent DC from having an otherwise solid majority.

    Without Farage on the scene, they may well now crumble.

    You're assuming UKIP took votes only from the Tories and not Labour. Results from tonight already suggest the theory that UKIP are just purple Tories should be consigned to the bin.
    Yes, I think you're right.

    The vote is fragmenting all over the place and churning in complex ways.

    What I thought was an unfocussed and changing campaign from Lynton Crosby and CCHQ may well have been precisely designed and targeted at each of these groups.

    It's certainly not as simple as "don't trust Labour on the economy" IMO - voters seem much much more savvy now.
    Of COURSE you were too left wing. Economy growing, unenployment falling, inflation low. Etc.
    I may not have posted here for five years or so, but I'm not left-wing.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    bazzer said:

    is this nuneaton swing enough for a majority?

    If repeated. Yes, and a sizeable one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    0.7% swing Labour to Con in Clwyd South
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Blunkett, what a gent!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Never seen anything like this election night.

    "LD glum faces" in Yeovil.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Lewes is a gonner
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    Are a majority of constituencies swinging Con right now?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Paul Nuttall as next leader of UKIP has to be value at 7/1 if they do really well in the north.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Looks like the Tories have put on votes overall. Astonishing result.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    MP_SE said:

    Paul Nuttall as next leader of UKIP has to be value at 7/1 if they do really well in the north.

    They will. They'll get quite a few seats in WWC Lab constituencies.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    cammo only one of the 4 leaders to remain in place this year?
  • Flockers_pbFlockers_pb Posts: 204
    Pile on to con majority
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    midwinter said:

    Lewes is a gonner

    Time to send in Mr Foyle?
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    It they had gone through with the boundary changes that were proposed during this parliament the Tories would almost certainly have a majority.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    The_Apocalypse said:

    LucyJones said:

    Breitbart reporting a recount in Twickenham.

    That website is god awful. Filled with some of the worst, most hate-filled people.
    It's the second website I check every morning after the Telegraph.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    When are they revising up to a decent Con majority? A few days ago the chance of a majority was a rounding error.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    seriously this is all good but

    is the TPD on the scrapheap - that really is all that matters.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    surbiton said:

    It is important to note that while Red Liberals did go to Labour, "blue" Liberals went to the Tories to shore them up.

    The Liberal Democratic party is finished.

    Will we have a Union at the end of 2020 ?

    What's really screwed the Libs is how poor Labour are. People pushed to the Tories by fear of Ed.
    Never mind
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Has anyone updated the exit poll yet? Tories out performing it fairly widely now.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Floater said:

    Blunkett, what a gent!

    Great to hear a Labour politician talk with honesty and dignity, they need to find some younger blood with that attitude.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    GB Tories up 2% Labour up 2%, zero national swing
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Saltire said:

    It they had gone through with the boundary changes that were proposed during this parliament the Tories would almost certainly have a majority.

    *bigger majority

    They aren't losing seats and if they gain 25 LD ones they are OM territory.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    I'm still up!

    This is 1992 all over again.

    Cons will be close to 330 I think.

    Astonishing...
  • PantherDavePantherDave Posts: 60
    Con majority now favourite over minority gov
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @JackW Take a BOW
    @Rodcrosby TAKE A BOW !

    ahem...
    Quite correct!

    Well done EiT for calling it as 'It is eight' back in late-Summer 2013! That appears to be how far the Tories will be short of a majority....

    :blush:
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Hodges or Crosby?

    PB Tory God - which one?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    the Ulster Unionists are back! South Antrim
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Turnout down 4% in E&W. As I said, the reports of record turnout were bollox. How many of the peeps in the polling stations were also there for the previous 2 elections? Without that impossible to make a sensible comparison?

    Could individual voter registration done the Tories a lot of favours?
    You mean, got rid of all the fraudulent and imaginary voters. Maybe.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Levenson charter dead in water

    Thank God.

    Cameron on his way to his count. He wouldn't be human if he didn't gloat a bit.

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    New thread btw.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    also these supposed tory paid-pundits such as Tim Montgomery, Portillo.... you can take NO credit or glory if this does turn out now as well as things seem
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Kilmarnock!! oh dear
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Feck Alexander has gone
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Somebody pinch me LOL - I am LOVING this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    antifrank said:

    @bbckamal: Lib Dem sources now admitting exit poll looking correct. Cd win as few as 10 seats. Some big names under pressure #GE2015

    Who will be the LibDem MPs?

    Nick Clegg doesn't deserve to be one of them.
    The b@stard brought his party to this. He probably is a Tory plant !
    They agreed to it. The party will crucify him, but they didn't act against him.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Just reported that Ukip are now saying they will be left with just the 1 seat,Clacton.
This discussion has been closed.