Kippers stopped a Tory gain - this could be a theme in a number of seats and prevent DC from having an otherwise solid majority.
Without Farage on the scene, they may well now crumble.
You're assuming UKIP took votes only from the Tories and not Labour. Results from tonight already suggest the theory that UKIP are just purple Tories should be consigned to the bin.
Yes, I think you're right.
The vote is fragmenting all over the place and churning in complex ways.
What I thought was an unfocussed and changing campaign from Lynton Crosby and CCHQ may well have been precisely designed and targeted at each of these groups.
It's certainly not as simple as "don't trust Labour on the economy" IMO - voters seem much much more savvy now.
I admit it, we're fecked. Off to bed in a very bad mood. Worked hard on the ground, but what was the point.May just as well be a keyboard warrior. I picked up doorsteps that SNP was worrying people, as was a dislike of Ed. There will have to be change in Labour
Did you pick up that people thought Labour were too "left-wing"? I'm starting to have second thoughts on these results, but I genuinely haven't heard people saying things like that at all.
Not really, but that may be the case.Perhaps we have lost the centre ground so assiduously built up by Tony Blair. They felt the Con?lib coalition had done a good job economically..
Officials & politicians talking of possible recount here in Twickenham, where outgoing Business Sec Vince Cable defends 12,000 maj #GE2015 from Nick Powell, Sky.
Britain Elects @britainelects 39s39 seconds ago Labour is understood to have conceded defeat in all Glasgow seats. 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More
Okay, R5L headlines at 01.30 utterly biased towards Labour. Leads with Khan's win and the other Labour wins, then negative stories for the Conservatives.
Ridiculous, on this of all nights.
Fk'em....now for the BBC Charter licence renewal discussions!!
Seriously I genuinely think this will be incomprehensible to R5 media types....not deliberate bias or any sinsiter, just total incomprehension of the worldview expressed by the results so far
It might be they have a policy of expressing one of the main parties at one bulletin, and the other at the next. You have to take the broadcasts as a whole.
Hopefully they have such rules, and figures and reports to ensure they are impartial over all the schedule. I suggest you don't ask SO for such evidence. ;-)
Britain Elects @britainelects 22s22 seconds ago Recount in Hartlepool. Understood to be between Labour and UKIP. 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More
Britain Elects @britainelects 22s22 seconds ago Recount in Hartlepool. Understood to be between Labour and UKIP. 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More
Anyone heard from one Mike Smithson, and labour most seats ? Labour spartan army on the ground, how important is to have peeps on the ground. "There is no evidence that the tory wasted vote has gone"
yes where is OGH tonight, checking his losses no doubt!!
Some asking where the polls were wrong - Essentially two points :
1. Shy Tories. 2. Differential turnout favouring both the Tories and SNP.
Jack you and I called this, though I was even more bullish than you. I think the fundamental problem is that a significant type of person doesn't have or answer a landline and the self select online polls are utter garbage. The whole methodologies are shot in 2015.
They would literally be better off standing on a pavement with a clipboard.
According to Sky ticker stats: 10 seats so far (7 Lab holds, 3 Con holds) Con +2% Lab +3% [Lib Dems collapsed to 5%]
Given there's twice the Labour seats, +2/+3 is good for the blues, but only if that's in line with the other 640 seats.
Well when you consider that half of the seats are in the North East where the Exit Poll predicted Labour to do best - there could be an overall Lab to Con swing.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 18 sec 19 secondi fa Conservative source says Vale of Clwyd is 'in play' and on knife-edge; Gower is 'exciting' and Brecon and Radnor is theirs.
I'm on Brecon. Get in.
Also Cheltenham, Bath and St. Ives. All of which look good.
Britain Elects @britainelects 22s22 seconds ago Recount in Hartlepool. Understood to be between Labour and UKIP. 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More
Scotland will vote for independence in 2018. 3 years of the Tories running the country with no Scottish MPs whilst Scotland has voted even more overwhelming for left leaning party than ever before will probably be enough to persuade another 5% to vote Yes.
Turnout down 4% in E&W. As I said, the reports of record turnout were bollox. How many of the peeps in the polling stations were also there for the previous 2 elections? Without that impossible to make a sensible comparison?
Well how wrong can ya be. SDLP holds Foyle and absolutely trounces Sinn Fein. Suspect a rather hefty unionist tactical vote or just a crap turnout has done it.
That was a longshot bet for me that SF might take it.
Rumours abound on South Antrim that the UUP are within striking distance of the DUP.
I admit it, we're fecked. Off to bed in a very bad mood. Worked hard on the ground, but what was the point.May just as well be a keyboard warrior. I picked up doorsteps that SNP was worrying people, as was a dislike of Ed. There will have to be change in Labour
Did you pick up that people thought Labour were too "left-wing"? I'm starting to have second thoughts on these results, but I genuinely haven't heard people saying things like that at all.
Not really, but that may be the case.Perhaps we have lost the centre ground so assiduously built up by Tony Blair. They felt the Con?lib coalition had done a good job economically..
Ed deliberately walked away from the centre ground. The unions will make it hard for the next leader to move back.
I hope the backslapping is tempered by recognition that most of us were too timid to call it, or not clever enough to see it. It was plain as day to me that the Conservatives should win, and I wrote many posts years ago and until February to the effect that Miliband was manifestly unsuitable for the role of PM and Labour were not ready for government. But the polls convinced me that, as in 2010, it would not be enough. I bottled it. Today I prepared for defeat. What a night.
Adding Rod Crosby to my previous list - with special kudos because he called two elections against the grain. Smart man (notwithstanding unconscionable views on European history 1939-45).
I admit it, we're fecked. Off to bed in a very bad mood. Worked hard on the ground, but what was the point.May just as well be a keyboard warrior. I picked up doorsteps that SNP was worrying people, as was a dislike of Ed. There will have to be change in Labour
Did you pick up that people thought Labour were too "left-wing"? I'm starting to have second thoughts on these results, but I genuinely haven't heard people saying things like that at all.
Not really, but that may be the case.Perhaps we have lost the centre ground so assiduously built up by Tony Blair. They felt the Con?lib coalition had done a good job economically..
Ed deliberately walked away from the centre ground. The unions will make it hard for the next leader to move back.
Indeed. Blair understood that. What happens to the 'soul' of the labour party now?
Turnout down 4% in E&W. As I said, the reports of record turnout were bollox. How many of the peeps in the polling stations were also there for the previous 2 elections? Without that impossible to make a sensible comparison?
Could individual voter registration done the Tories a lot of favours?
Britain Elects @britainelects 22s22 seconds ago Recount in Hartlepool. Understood to be between Labour and UKIP. 0 retweets 0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More
Jeez. That's getting crazy.
Come now - Hartlepool did once elect a monkey as Mayor.
I admit it, we're fecked. Off to bed in a very bad mood. Worked hard on the ground, but what was the point.May just as well be a keyboard warrior. I picked up doorsteps that SNP was worrying people, as was a dislike of Ed. There will have to be change in Labour
Did you pick up that people thought Labour were too "left-wing"? I'm starting to have second thoughts on these results, but I genuinely haven't heard people saying things like that at all.
Not really, but that may be the case.Perhaps we have lost the centre ground so assiduously built up by Tony Blair. They felt the Con?lib coalition had done a good job economically..
as Bill Clinton said :- its the economy stupid, plus Ed has seriously veered left
Anyone heard from one Mike Smithson, and labour most seats ? Labour spartan army on the ground, how important is to have peeps on the ground. "There is no evidence that the tory wasted vote has gone"
yes where is OGH tonight, checking his losses no doubt!!
He is remembering that the conservatives need to be 11.4% ahead in the polls just to stand still.
I'm wondering if my own Con vote in Bury South might actually have counted - this could be close if UKIP really is mullering Labour nationwide. If Walsall S goes, then why not this one!
Some asking where the polls were wrong - Essentially two points :
1. Shy Tories. 2. Differential turnout favouring both the Tories and SNP.
Jack you and I called this, though I was even more bullish than you. I think the fundamental problem is that a significant type of person doesn't have or answer a landline and the self select online polls are utter garbage. The whole methodologies are shot in 2015.
They would literally be better off standing on a pavement with a clipboard.
The EMWNBPM was never an issue but where my ARSE may have misfired is that the ARSE filter didn't project far enough from the polls for the differential turnout for shy Tories and SNP.
Comments
I admit I was sceptical, but I kneel before your ARSE. Well done!
The vote is fragmenting all over the place and churning in complex ways.
What I thought was an unfocussed and changing campaign from Lynton Crosby and CCHQ may well have been precisely designed and targeted at each of these groups.
It's certainly not as simple as "don't trust Labour on the economy" IMO - voters seem much much more savvy now.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/N06000008
West Tyrone:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/N06000018
Lagan Valley:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/N06000009
Labour is understood to have conceded defeat in all Glasgow seats.
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Hopefully they have such rules, and figures and reports to ensure they are impartial over all the schedule. I suggest you don't ask SO for such evidence. ;-)
Recount in Hartlepool. Understood to be between Labour and UKIP.
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West Tyrone SF
Foyle SDLP
All holds
They would literally be better off standing on a pavement with a clipboard.
Also Cheltenham, Bath and St. Ives. All of which look good.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000833
That was a longshot bet for me that SF might take it.
Rumours abound on South Antrim that the UUP are within striking distance of the DUP.
Lab -1.2
Con +0.2
UKIP +13.3
He leads his people to the promised land but never makes it himself.
Ladbrokes suspends betting on PM with David Cameron last 1/20.. Ed Miliband now 1/4 to be replaced as Labour leader this year
ED IS TOAST
Adding Rod Crosby to my previous list - with special kudos because he called two elections against the grain. Smart man (notwithstanding unconscionable views on European history 1939-45).
Labour understood to have conceded all seats in Glasgow.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000062
Majority on the card surely!
They think kits all over. It is now.