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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mea

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  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Battered in Batte............
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Get on a Cons majority whilst you still can
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Swing to Tories in Battersea.

    Hahahaha.

    Sorry.

    Hahahahahaha!!!!

    This is all so surreal.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    This is bonkers...who would have thought a swing in Battersea to the Tories.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Swing to Tories 1.5 in Battersea.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    More swings TO the Tories in London - Battersea.

    This is 1992 all over again.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Battersea result shifted con maj from 4.5 to 3.5
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Anabel Goldie mumbling that SNP may be recipetents of protest votes.
    She's effing barking.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    IOS's posts last night take on a certain irony.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Slackbladder said:

    Swing to tory in London!!!!!!

    The Boris effect?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alastair fucking Campbell on ITV.

    Looks like a corpse
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    3 London seats and so far and basically 0 swing from Conservative to Labour
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    EDW20000 said:

    Fenster said:

    If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.

    I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.

    It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.

    I reckon, anyway.

    You think cons care about the sick? lolz
    If they don't, that group is pretty screwed for the next couple of years. I really hope, that there is some compassion within the Tory party to avoid this happening.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Kinnock can take some comfort - Ave it now projects LAB 2015 will get less than LAB 1987 (229)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Just imagine how badly Labour would have done without their awesomely brilliantly GOTV
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Labour wasted lots of human resources in Battarsea.....

    Maybe they didn't. Imagine what it would have been.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    I just love tonight
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Labour had 500 workers out in Battersea.

    Heart of stone not to point and laugh!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    numbertwelve said:

    Swing to Tories in Battersea.

    Hahahaha.

    Sorry.

    Hahahahahaha!!!!

    This is all so surreal.

    Sending out emergency care packages to PB Tories containing a generous supply of smelling salts.
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    The Dogersea Bats Home
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Purseybear said:

    Get on a Cons majority whilst you still can

    10 to 1 at Ladbrokes earlier. Glad I put a few quid on.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Tristrum Hunt: lolz.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    This is making the polling disaster of 1992 look like chickenfeed.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    So it is clear. The Tories are the vampires successful sucking the blood from the Liberal Democrats.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    antifrank said:

    Battersea not close. Earlier today Labour sources were hinting it was in the mix.

    Maybe Labour are starting to get worried about Hampstead & Kilburn. 42 vote majority.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Fenster said:

    If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.

    I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.

    It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.

    I reckon, anyway.

    This, fantastic post. I also hope ATOS is reformed.
    It was Labour that gave ATOS the contract. Only themselves to blame.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    EMWNBPM
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Tristram sounds a lot less posh than when I knew him at university. He must have had elocution lessons...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Where's roserees? :lol:
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    1992 1992 1992 1992 1992
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    lucy thornton ‏@lucethornton 3m3 minutes ago
    Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam is 'shockingly close' 'there could be an upset' according to one agent #GE15
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Anabel Goldie mumbling that SNP may be recipetents of protest votes.
    She's effing barking.

    Indeed. I wish that were so, but you don't get this sort of result out of a protest.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    How many Labour activists flooded Battersea in the past month? They must be gutted. Shame, that.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Battersea; Jane Ellison (blue hold) 26,730 (+5%)

    LDs -10.3%.- things are not looking good tonight for the yellows.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    You have to feel sorry for politicans... they can hardly say.'yep, we're screwed tonight;
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    If there's a result in line with the exit poll and Miliband goes, the wrong leader [Umunna] could see the north of England head in Scotland's direction for Labour (at the hands of UKIP). Jarvis would probably turn around losing the WWC simply due to his backstory. Umunna would not.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Tristram Hunt "I think it's been a great election campaign for the Labour party".

    Good luck with that spin line.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: This election has tested to destruction the idea that Labour can win by shifting Left. Also that its ‘ground war’ wd be enough

    IOS, your boys took a hell of a beating...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Alastair fucking Campbell on ITV.

    Looks like a corpse

    Tip to Labour...get him off the TV and as far away from your party....he thinks he is so smart, so cunning and is doing a great job blasting the Tories. The reality he just reminds a lot of people like myself why I can't vote Labour when people like him are still involved.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    BALLS gone - Ave it projects by 4,000
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Why is SPIN showing the SNP at 47 ?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just imagine how badly Labour would have done without their awesomely brilliantly GOTV

    The GOTV was always overrated in most places, but I thought it might pull off in London atleast.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    IOS...where is your ground war now?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just imagine how badly Labour would have done without their awesomely brilliantly GOTV

    .. and their algorithms. Don't forget their superior algorithms.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    Alastair fucking Campbell on ITV.

    Looks like a corpse

    Wow Orkney and Zetland has gone. Go SNP.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    With London swinging Tory against the odds, Con looking on for an overall majority surely?
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Con majority come in to 3.2 from 5 on Betfair - instant profit
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited May 2015
    BBC covering itself:

    At 10pm they did NOT say Hung Parliament.

    Just "Con largest party"!!!!!!!!!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    It looks like the Tories are indeed around 9% ahead, perhaps approaching 10%.

    UKIP seem to have taken votes from Labour but not from the Tories.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    antifrank said:

    Tristram Hunt "I think it's been a great election campaign for the Labour party".

    Good luck with that spin line.

    Tonight is about Labour interviewees being given enough rope to hang themselves.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    I thought it was all about the ground game. I thought tonight was goodbye Cameron . Where is IOS?
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Ooh Lab maybe 3rd in Dum/Galloway>
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Bercow looking in a risky position
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103
    Purseybear said:

    Get on a Cons majority whilst you still can

    It's still unlikely. Backing now below 2/1 is fraught with danger. A few results that back the trend and suddenly you're starting at 5/1+ again.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    antifrank said:

    Tristram Hunt "I think it's been a great election campaign for the Labour party".

    Good luck with that spin line.

    But democracy is a process.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    surbiton said:

    So it is clear. The Tories are the vampires successful sucking the blood from the Liberal Democrats.

    I don't think Cameron and Clegg will remain friends after this somehow, that's for sure.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    NumbrCrunchrPolitics ‏@NCPoliticsUK now4 seconds ago
    If no swing at all in London, polls off by about 10 points...
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 891
    Why are BBC/ITV not flashing results across bottom of screen? FFS.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Chameleon said:

    Swing to Con in London! 500 activists wasted on polling day. What a waste.

    48% of Labour members live in London.......
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    alex. said:

    This is making the polling disaster of 1992 look like chickenfeed.

    Quite. The gap between the main parties is going to be close to 5% and they pretty much all showed a draw. That is a massive failure.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Artist said:

    lucy thornton ‏@lucethornton 3m3 minutes ago
    Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam is 'shockingly close' 'there could be an upset' according to one agent #GE15

    Going to be exciting...

    One vote in it, I reckon.

    Here that TSE???
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Spread con midpoints: spin 317, ig 317, sprx 314.5.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    alex. said:

    This is making the polling disaster of 1992 look like chickenfeed.

    It certainly gives the lie to the infallibility of the pollsters.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    surbiton said:

    So it is clear. The Tories are the vampires successful sucking the blood from the Liberal Democrats.

    Not as smug as you were 5 hours ago? It appears the pb hodges are right and you are catastrophically wrong.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    BBC says Dumfries and Galloway certain SNP.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    MikeL said:

    BBC covering itself:

    At 10pm they did NOT say Hung Parliament.

    Just "Con largest party"!!!!!!!!!

    To be fair, they did. but LOL
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    anyone have current turnout figures? I am on under 65%.

    Also national projections would be interesting too.

    Tristam Hunt looks worried in Stoke. I am on UKIP there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Why are BBC/ITV not flashing results across bottom of screen? FFS.

    Let's hope they do once they start rolling in.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Morris_Dancer said:

    If there's a result in line with the exit poll and Miliband goes, the wrong leader [Umunna] could see the north of England head in Scotland's direction for Labour (at the hands of UKIP). Jarvis would probably turn around losing the WWC simply due to his backstory. Umunna would not.

    Quite. Dan Jarvis would be a great leader for Labour - Umunna would surely be Miliband II?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    I tell you the result I want.

    The winning majority in Thanet South to be less than Al Murray's vote. Will confuse/amuse psephologists for years.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    STV - Rutherglen certain SNP.
  • indianhavenindianhaven Posts: 22
    At least Neil Kinnock has got his party back. Without Blair/ New Labour it does not win,
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just imagine how badly Labour would have done without their awesomely brilliantly GOTV

    The GOTV was always overrated in most places, but I thought it might pull off in London atleast.
    Love that GOTV how much that counts.....

  • peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 109
    SimonStClare said:

    Battersea; Jane Ellison (blue hold) 26,730 (+5%)

    LDs -10.3%.- things are not looking good tonight for the yellows.

    Interesting as there were loads of posts yesterday giving anecdotal evidence that Labour were focussing on Battersea!

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    3% swing to the Tories in Wrexham. Labour's vote flatlining.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    surbiton said:

    So it is clear. The Tories are the vampires successful sucking the blood from the Liberal Democrats.

    Labour has taken one hell of a beating. There's no getting round it.

  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Edinburgh South only Edi seat in play.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Tristrm Hunt... 'Ed has exceeded expectations'... lol
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    DUP hold Lagan Valley - we might not need them to be our friends now :lol:
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Please tell me Clegg has lost, I need some good news.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Tristram Hunt talking utter gibberish
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    Alastair fucking Campbell on ITV.

    Looks like a corpse

    Wow Orkney and Zetland has gone. Go SNP.
    Really?

    There's no exit poll there, and has counting even started?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Fenster said:

    If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.

    I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.

    It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.

    I reckon, anyway.

    This, fantastic post. I also hope ATOS is reformed.
    ATOS has already gone for the Work Capability Assessment. They were introduced by Labour, removed by the coalition. :-)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Work_Capability_Assessment

    We need to ensure the replacement works better. Although even just working would be better...
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    GIN1138 said:

    With London swinging Tory against the odds, Con looking on for an overall majority surely?

    Yep, it may even be by a distance (20+?). I would have called myself delusional if I had said that last night.

    Also: awful denial in regards to Ed by Tristam.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Swing to the Tories in Wrexham...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Slackbladder said:

    Tristrm Hunt... 'Ed has exceeded expectations'... lol

    Gosh, how low were they!?
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Thornberry St George flag faili
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Today instead of Canada 1993 it looks like Canada 1988, Brian Mulroney won a landslide then on fears and deals with Quebec nationalists.
  • peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 109
    I am just wondering if it's even possible that the Conservatives will actually get a majority?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    surbiton said:

    Why is SPIN showing the SNP at 47 ?

    Your cache must be jammed up somewhere, it's at 55. Try a ctrl-f5 to force a refresh.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Tristam, Ed's clearly led a rubbish campaign. I didn't think it was that bad, but I'm in the minority (clearly).
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Cons up 6.2% in Wrexham into 2nd place.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    My labour leaning friends in London went tory. I have been hearing grumbling for weeks from labour voters which defied the polls. An incredible set of results so far.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab hold Wrexham
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    I really do feel sorry for the LDs. Sure they were going to take a huge hit, but they really don't deserve this big a hit. But it seems the british public disagree with me on that.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    AndyJS said:

    3% swing to the Tories in Wrexham. Labour's vote flatlining.

    Cons sweep Wales?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    Alastair fucking Campbell on ITV.

    Looks like a corpse

    I would happily dance a jig on his grave.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Dair said:

    STV - Rutherglen certain SNP.

    Niiiiiice.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Wow. Just do not believe this.

    Is it time formally to crack open the Dalwhinne or too early...lots of stuff to do tomorrow

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    AndyJS said:

    3% swing to the Tories in Wrexham. Labour's vote flatlining.

    Labour doing worse than 2010? bloody hell
This discussion has been closed.