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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mea

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  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Labour only need to take TEN seats off the Tories that the Exit Poll (margin 25 seats) doesn't predict for the ONLY government to form be dependent on the 62/63 SNP/Plaid MPs.

    Labour now conceding ALL except Edinburgh South in Edinburgh's five seats.

    Forget it, the Tories have won this election on the base of SNP terror, thanks SNP.
    And lost the Union.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Who's the next UKIP leader, assuming they win:

    Thurrock
    Castle Point
    Clacton
    + one other
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    Mortimer said:

    Absolutely great acceptance speech by Greening. Proper one nation Tory.

    A northerner who went to a comp: Dave needs to get her back in.
    Time to forgive her for supporting DD. Howard loved her. So do I.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    It looks like the future of UKIP is Nuttall rather than any southerner. Cannot be long until some Essex seats.

    I replied to you on last thread but it changed...

    I was a teller in Dagenham and Rainham today and their was a big UKIP vote.. The Head of UKIP London is the Barking candidate, but he was campaigning in Dagenham as all the resources have gone there.. if the canvassing returns he quoted are right, they have won there.. we shall see
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Exit poll had 4.5% swing Con to Lab. Actual at Putney 0.4%

    Conservative majority?!!!

    What are the odds? It's looking almost as likely as not if the current results are representative of the country.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    If Farage and Reckless lose, if that place in Scotland I can't remember goes SNP (c something), if Tory most seats, if Tories take Taunton then I think I've a clean sweep other than last nights late night bet on Lib dems in Maidstone...

    Far too early to try and log in to the betting sites to find out what on earth that would mean.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    It's back to the 80s.

    If only that were true and there really was another glorious Thatcher revolution!
    Alas, a dream.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    AVE IT PROJECTS CON OVERALL MAJORITY

    Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).
    4% swing to con Swindon N much better than exit poll projection
    0% swing in London
    Con only need to do 1% swing better than 2010 in LAB targets given LD meltdown

    I project maybe 330 but DYOR!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    RCS1000 But only just behind LDs, my sister lives in Putney and she probably voted Green
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    isam said:

    UKIP lose deposit in Putney!

    Isn't 1,989 enough votes to keep your deposit? I thought it was 1,000?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Claire Wilde @ClaireW_TandA
    Ukip look chipper over on the Bradford South tables.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    There's a slim chance that the Tories haven't won a majority since the old king died meme, ends tonight. Weird Ed really is crap.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited May 2015
    Chameleon said:

    Exit poll had 4.5% swing Con to Lab. Actual at Putney 0.4%

    Conservative majority?!!!

    What are the odds? It's looking almost as likely as not if the current results are representative of the country.
    You can still get 5.6

    Got to be worth it. Still may not happen but that London result is amazing.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    JackW's ARSE is surely swelling to Kardashian-levels with all this vindication.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Peter Kellner: "Lib Dems privately accept they'll be atleast below 20"

    LOL unbelievable. Will they win any seats?
    Yes.
    The question is where? They are even reporting that Sheffield Hallam is too close to call.

    Tonight has been extraordinary, even though I may not have the Labour result I would have liked.
    We'll see... but the exit polls suggested it would be very, very close in a great many seats.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    Who's the next UKIP leader, assuming they win:

    Thurrock
    Castle Point
    Clacton
    + one other

    Am I still 200/1?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952

    Just stubbed my toe wandering round the house in the dark. Ow!

    I don't know what to think right now.

    Your stubbed toe may be the least painful aspect of the night....
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Lesson for the Lib Dems and UKIP is to not get Survation to do your polling.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    isam said:

    UKIP lose deposit in Putney!

    Isn't 1,989 enough votes to keep your deposit? I thought it was 1,000?
    5% of votes cast saves your deposit.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Well this is all starting to be rather enjoyable.

    I wonder what Ed is going to do with his 8ft tall stone slab after all this?

    Stick it up in his garden, as a reminder?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Freggles said:

    It's back to the 80s.

    Genuinely worried for the people at the bottom of society.
    Well, that's what many europhic Tories here aren't really talking about. But I doubt there administration will be stable; so it may well self-destruct within three years.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    isam said:

    UKIP lose deposit in Putney!

    Isn't 1,989 enough votes to keep your deposit? I thought it was 1,000?
    5%
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    What happens to UKIP without Farage
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    AVE IT PROJECTS NO LAB GAINS FROM CON
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2015
    Sooooo, Farage gone, Murphy gone, Balls in trouble, Galloway in trouble. Is this Christmas?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Ave_it said:

    AVE IT PROJECTS NO LAB GAINS FROM CON

    Net?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    UKIP lose deposit in Putney!

    Isn't 1,989 enough votes to keep your deposit? I thought it was 1,000?
    Perhaps sorry

    I thought it was 5% but no expert
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    BBC saying that UKIP donor in Thanet suggesting that Farage may be toast.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    The pollsters do look as if they need to go away and do some head-scratching. It looks like the shy Tories are back in force, and in a way that the post-1992 adjustments have failed to pick up.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Labour only need to take TEN seats off the Tories that the Exit Poll (margin 25 seats) doesn't predict for the ONLY government to form be dependent on the 62/63 SNP/Plaid MPs.

    Labour now conceding ALL except Edinburgh South in Edinburgh's five seats.

    Forget it, the Tories have won this election on the base of SNP terror, thanks SNP.
    And lost the Union.
    Win-win all round then.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    kle4 said:

    LDs being replaced as third party in some areas, replaced as second in others? SW no longer to be LD if you are anti-Tory? Might take more than 5 years to recover this time.

    Comsidering that they are being wiped out almost everywhere there must be some areas where they might never recover. It is hard to see for example for them to become relevant in Scotland again anytime soon. They might even lose 1 or 2 of their remaining seats in Holyrood in 2016 and they only have 4 at the moment!
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454

    Danny565 said:

    Peter Kellner: "Lib Dems privately accept they'll be atleast below 20"

    LOL unbelievable. Will they win any seats?
    What about Kellner accept his polling is shite, his predictions are shite and he has lost the right to comment,
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited May 2015

    Its been a terrrrrribbbbllle night.... for the polling companies.

    To be fair the Phone Pollsters did have the Tories ahead in March and April

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596099984069697539
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Labour only need to take TEN seats off the Tories that the Exit Poll (margin 25 seats) doesn't predict for the ONLY government to form be dependent on the 62/63 SNP/Plaid MPs.

    Labour now conceding ALL except Edinburgh South in Edinburgh's five seats.

    Forget it, the Tories have won this election on the base of SNP terror, thanks SNP.
    And lost the Union.
    I have no problem of extracting revenge from scotland by imposing SNP rule on them.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    If, according to Labour, 316 seats is not enough to be a govt then 239 seats is definitely not enough either. Labour's disconnect from reality is staggering
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    What happens to UKIP without Farage

    They might do better... they might do worse...

    The issue for UKIP is that Carswell is from the libertarian side of the party, and that's not really that popular a platform in the North of England.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Freggles said:

    It's back to the 80s.

    Genuinely worried for the people at the bottom of society.

    It's a clear Tory win, but they have a very tricky time to come. Scotland and the EU will be very tough to negotiate; the economy is looking a little shakey. It will not be plain sailing.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    The communist party? lol
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    Calling Tory Majority. Cable out. Galloway out. Balls out. Alexanders and Huhne out. Now 1992 part two is happening (exit poll underestimating Con).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Dair said:

    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Labour only need to take TEN seats off the Tories that the Exit Poll (margin 25 seats) doesn't predict for the ONLY government to form be dependent on the 62/63 SNP/Plaid MPs.

    Labour now conceding ALL except Edinburgh South in Edinburgh's five seats.

    Forget it, the Tories have won this election on the base of SNP terror, thanks SNP.
    And lost the Union.
    Not the Tories fault. It's lost because Scotland wants it lost, clearly. No one can stop that
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Andrew said:

    Sooooo, Farage gone, Murphy gone, Balls in trouble, Galloway in trouble. Is this Christmas?

    If Salmond could somehow join that list I would feint!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    What happens to UKIP without Farage

    Carswell becomes leader.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Farage has definitely lost, another interview and he's walked away angry and disappointed.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    If, according to Labour, 316 seats is not enough to be a govt then 239 seats is definitely not enough either. Labour's disconnect from reality is staggering

    Difference is only one party gets a guaranteed extra 50 votes
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    RobD said:

    Ave_it said:

    AVE IT PROJECTS NO LAB GAINS FROM CON

    Net?
    No LAB gains AT ALL (from CON)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Ken Clark on R4
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    UKIP seats max = 1
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Are LibDems going to have any Councillors left after tonight?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The fall out from this election for the pollsters is going to be enormous.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Saltire said:

    kle4 said:

    LDs being replaced as third party in some areas, replaced as second in others? SW no longer to be LD if you are anti-Tory? Might take more than 5 years to recover this time.

    Comsidering that they are being wiped out almost everywhere there must be some areas where they might never recover. It is hard to see for example for them to become relevant in Scotland again anytime soon. They might even lose 1 or 2 of their remaining seats in Holyrood in 2016 and they only have 4 at the moment!
    The LDs might completely disappear.
    Or they might recover quickly like the Conservatives in Canada.

    Who knows?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    AVE IT PROJECTS CON OVERALL MAJORITY

    Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).
    4% swing to con Swindon N much better than exit poll projection
    0% swing in London
    Con only need to do 1% swing better than 2010 in LAB targets given LD meltdown

    I project maybe 330 but DYOR!
    So a majority of 4. Thanks for that, Ave_it.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    First SNP results within the next 20 mins or so.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Jeeez. Swing in Newcastle only 1.5% I make it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Ave_it said:

    RobD said:

    Ave_it said:

    AVE IT PROJECTS NO LAB GAINS FROM CON

    Net?
    No LAB gains AT ALL (from CON)
    Bloody hell.... titter
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The pollsters and labourdoorstep are a big downfall
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Chameleon said:

    Calling Tory Majority. Cable out. Galloway out. Balls out. Alexanders and Huhne out.

    What! Huhne didn't win???
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Tooting coming shortly
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    LDs fall from second to 4th behind Tories and UKIP in Newcastle East
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Its the economy stupid !!!!
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Labour only need to take TEN seats off the Tories that the Exit Poll (margin 25 seats) doesn't predict for the ONLY government to form be dependent on the 62/63 SNP/Plaid MPs.

    Labour now conceding ALL except Edinburgh South in Edinburgh's five seats.

    Forget it, the Tories have won this election on the base of SNP terror, thanks SNP.
    If they have won, it's just as likely because voters looked at Milliband, and thought 'Nope, not you chum'.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited May 2015
    Newcastle East swing = 1.5% Con to Lab?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Lol Newcastle!
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454

    Freggles said:

    It's back to the 80s.

    Genuinely worried for the people at the bottom of society.
    Well, that's what many europhic Tories here aren't really talking about. But I doubt there administration will be stable; so it may well self-destruct within three years.
    Biazzare jibber jabber
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015

    Its been a terrrrrribbbbllle night.... for the polling companies.

    To be fair the Phone Pollsters did have the Tories ahead in March and April

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596099984069697539
    Still wayyy off.

    EDIT: another 1% Con-Lab swing.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Newcastle East swing 1% Con to lab
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    alex. said:

    Jack's ARSE looking somewhat wobbly at the moment...

    It's the excitement.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    NoEasyDay said:

    Danny565 said:

    Peter Kellner: "Lib Dems privately accept they'll be atleast below 20"

    LOL unbelievable. Will they win any seats?
    What about Kellner accept his polling is shite, his predictions are shite and he has lost the right to comment,
    When you think Kellner predicted the LDs on 32 LMAO...!!!! At least my suspicions on that were right.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Speedy said:

    What happens to UKIP without Farage

    Carswell becomes leader.
    Leader of what, himself?
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    I'll try not to bang on about this but I did say that one of the biggest stories would not just be SLAB wipeout but LD wipeout.

    Cons majority is a real real real possibility folks
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Newcastle East:

    Lab 19,378 (17,043)
    Con 6,884 (6,068)
    UKIP 4,910 (-)
    LD 4,332 (12,590)
    Greens 3,426 (620)
    TUSC 170 (-)
    Comm Brit 122 (177)

    Lab vote +4.8%
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,516

    Jeeez. Swing in Newcastle only 1.5% I make it.

    That's my constituency. Green vote is pretty much from Labour though (including my vote).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Yay! Galloway out!
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Galloway has lost.

    Can this night get any better? YEEEEEEES :)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Swings are pilling in now: 4, 5, 2.5, -4, 0.5 ,1

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Close in Dagenham they say... Lab just ahead... groans
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Marr looking crushed.

    Heh!
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Galloway to lose!!!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    rcs1000 said:

    What happens to UKIP without Farage

    They might do better... they might do worse...

    The issue for UKIP is that Carswell is from the libertarian side of the party, and that's not really that popular a platform in the North of England.
    Would be a massive mistake to make Carswell leader. Has to be from the northern/Labour end of things: Nuttall maybe, but is he eloquent enough?
  • Flockers_pbFlockers_pb Posts: 204
    Come on Ave it, if the exit poll is right they have won a few. Some they could win by a counting accident!
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    alex. said:

    Tooting coming shortly

    Power to the people.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Well done to Newcastle LDs on their first saved deposit of the night!
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    I just can't see how lib dems can get 5 seats
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    AVE IT PROJECTS CON OVERALL MAJORITY

    Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).
    4% swing to con Swindon N much better than exit poll projection
    0% swing in London
    Con only need to do 1% swing better than 2010 in LAB targets given LD meltdown

    I project maybe 330 but DYOR!
    So a majority of 4. Thanks for that, Ave_it.
    10 (330 CON 320 OTH = 650)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Remarkable result. Ed Miliband, adieu.

    The only good news of the night.

    As we righgtwingers gloat (and as you personally exult in your accuracy) Labour REALLY need to
    look at how they elect leaders. Ed Miliband was a loser from the off. Only the Unions elevated him.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Remarkable result. Ed Miliband, adieu.

    The only good news of the night.

    As we righgtwingers gloat (and as you personally exult in your accuracy) Labour REALLY need to
    look at how they elect leaders. Ed Miliband was a loser from the off. Only the Unions elevated him.

    The unions are a strait-jacket for Labour and the centre left generally. It's not possible to create a sensible centre left party with the unions involved.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    rcs1000 said:

    Yay! Galloway out!

    I wonder if that brewery will make a special ale to celebrate? I hope they do.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Danny565 said:

    JackW's ARSE is surely swelling to Kardashian-levels with all this vindication.

    Mindbleach now!

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    So if the exit poll is right Cameron will have to go with a minority, surely, unless the DUP are on board? The LDs won't be willing to or be wanted, which in a way is worse for Cameron as he cannot get a workable majority thanks to them anymore. Difficult for him, but still better than expected if this pans out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    edited May 2015

    rcs1000 said:

    What happens to UKIP without Farage

    They might do better... they might do worse...

    The issue for UKIP is that Carswell is from the libertarian side of the party, and that's not really that popular a platform in the North of England.
    Would be a massive mistake to make Carswell leader. Has to be from the northern/Labour end of things: Nuttall maybe, but is he eloquent enough?
    Can he become leader as a non-MP?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Just keep an eye on those Green votes.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2015

    Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?

    Spreads still have UKIP in the 2.5 to 3.5 range. Dunno where those are, it's probably a sum of many (moderate) underdogs.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Is it just possible conservative majority
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Galloway has lost.

    Can this night get any better? YEEEEEEES :)

    YESSSS

    No matter anything else, in terms of the UK being a democratic country, this is the BEST RESULT OF THE NIGHT.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    BBC: Galloway has lost, no recount.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?

    Nope, I wanted him to.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    What happens to UKIP without Farage

    They might do better... they might do worse...

    The issue for UKIP is that Carswell is from the libertarian side of the party, and that's not really that popular a platform in the North of England.
    Would be a massive mistake to make Carswell leader. Has to be from the northern/Labour end of things: Nuttall maybe, but is he eloquent enough?
    Can he become leader as a non-MP?
    Farage is leader and not an MP

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    kle4 said:

    So if the exit poll is right Cameron will have to go with a minority, surely, unless the DUP are on board? The LDs won't be willing to or be wanted, which in a way is worse for Cameron as he cannot get a workable majority thanks to them anymore. Difficult for him, but still better than expected if this pans out.

    Probably better for the LDs too.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    rcs1000 said:

    Yay! Galloway out!

    I wonder if that brewery will make a special ale to celebrate? I hope they do.
    That's a result we can all drink to, regardless of affiliation.
This discussion has been closed.