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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mea

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream

    Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)

    Does that actually match the way you voted?
    I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to win
    You and Harry could be looking very foolish with your votes at the end of the night.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    dr_spyn said:

    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 54s54 seconds ago
    Respect Party's George Galloway reported to police for allegedly tweeting about #GE2015 exit poll before its release http://bbc.co.uk/electionlive

    It just gets better.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Kinnock on BBC! Not so allllrrrrright now, eh Neil?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @afneil: On the small number of results so far, the outcome for Labour is worse than exit poll.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.

    I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.

    It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.

    I reckon, anyway.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    I'm listening to Rod Crosby from now on.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Am I going to win my bet with the Neil on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems?

    No, they'll be 1 or 2 percent short of the LDs.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    marke09 said:

    ITV are showing Others on 1 - who won that?

    NI seat declared probably
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    How many are watching Sky Arts? Pretty sight :)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Kinnock: Ed's done very well... looooollll
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    Dair said:

    Galloway has lost.

    Can this night get any better? YEEEEEEES :)

    YESSSS

    No matter anything else, in terms of the UK being a democratic country, this is the BEST RESULT OF THE NIGHT.
    YAY! It certainly is.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    antifrank said:

    Neil Kinnock considering the consequences of getting his Labour party back.

    Yep, complete tit.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    antifrank said:

    Neil Kinnock considering the consequences of getting his Labour party back.

    A party which launches its manifesto on the basis of "balancing the books", and which spent the whole of the debates making a virtue out of how they'd cut spending more than the SNP, is certainly not Kinnock's party.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tory candidate in Swindon North looked shell-shocked that he'd done so well. You don't often see that on election night.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    "Labour supporters play down rumours that Greens will win Norwich South" on STV marquee.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393

    Wowsers the Tories got tonnes in Tooting. Maybe they should have given Sam Bailey another go?

    Shawn not Sam
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Say what you will about Neil Kinnock, he improved on the Labour seat totals in the elections he went into.

    And he didn't erect an 8ft pledge obelisk.
  • DeafblokeDeafbloke Posts: 70
    This poll is clearly an outlier.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Pulpstar said:

    At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream

    Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)

    Does that actually match the way you voted?
    I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to win
    You and Harry could be looking very foolish with your votes at the end of the night.
    Ashcroft could well have dissuaded tactical voters in Hallam and in Cambridge...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Am I going to win my bet with the Neil on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems?

    No.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    antifrank said:

    Neil Kinnock considering the consequences of getting his Labour party back.

    LOL.....

    He's waving his fist at the electorate again as his party crashes under the electoral waves...
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    KINNOCKKKKKK!!!!!!

    I did vote the right way after all!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    That said, Kinnock blaming the electorate is not a good look.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Saltire said:

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    AVE IT PROJECTS CON OVERALL MAJORITY

    Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).
    4% swing to con Swindon N much better than exit poll projection
    0% swing in London
    Con only need to do 1% swing better than 2010 in LAB targets given LD meltdown

    I project maybe 330 but DYOR!
    So a majority of 4. Thanks for that, Ave_it.
    10 (330 CON 320 OTH = 650)
    Eh? Isn't the number of a majority 326. Forgive me, I'm really tired. Even if we take in Sinn Fein not taking their seats would mean the Tories would only need 323 - a majority of 7.
    That would be a majority of 15 no? 330 vs 315 (once you take off Sinn Fein)
    I'll take your word for it. The BBC have apparently said Swindon is inline with their exit poll, but Con majority is now a real real possibility, so we'll see.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Deafbloke said:

    This poll is clearly an outlier.

    Diamondium standard, actually :D
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    edited May 2015
    kingbongo said:

    This is 1992 again! Cameron is going to get to 323 isn't he!

    haven't you been exiled to conhome for excessive pessimism
    Yes he is :lol::lol::lol: (going to get 323+)
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    And thats why Kinnock never became a PM.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    What the f*** is Kinnock on about?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    Fenster said:

    If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.

    I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.

    It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.

    I reckon, anyway.

    Knowing some people with disabilities, I agree.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    antifrank said:

    Prodicus said:

    Danny565 said:

    JackW's ARSE is surely swelling to Kardashian-levels with all this vindication.

    Mindbleach now!

    He did brilliantly on the Conservatives, but bafflingly badly on the SNP. But the Tories obviously are the more important component in UK-wide terms.
    It may be the champagne but I cannot rid my mind of a horrible image combining La Kardashiana's arse and the arse of the ladyman weirdo in the moneysupermarket ad. Frightening, and an insult to the immortal JackW's ARSE. Which is obvs golden, but surely not akin to those grotesques.

    Pace JackW, that's enough arses. (Ed)

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    kingbongo said:

    Wowsers the Tories got tonnes in Tooting. Maybe they should have given Sam Bailey another go?

    Shawn not Sam

    Woophhhs....of course you are right.... :-)
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Interviewing Kinnock - how ironically appropriate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Pulpstar said:

    At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream

    Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)

    Does that actually match the way you voted?
    I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to win
    You and Harry could be looking very foolish with your votes at the end of the night.
    I blame ICM
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    stjohn said:

    I was betting on a Tory Overall Majority about 6-8 weeks ago when the polls seemed to be moving in their direction. When their progress stalled I cancelled my position at a smallish loss. I wonder whether I should have ket the faith ....

    I got slightly panicked this week, too. Closed down 30% of my Tory Maj position. Still think the remaining 70% could be a winner....

  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Fenster said:

    If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions..


    Well said.

  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Kinnock the bitter old fool. Accept it with some dignity, graceless prat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Telegraph getting their Swindon Norths and Souths mixed up. We're still waiting on a result from Swindon S (hopefully a Tory hold!)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    alex. said:

    How many are watching Sky Arts? Pretty sight :)

    I am, its better than the inane nonsense on the real channels

    Are you talking about my guilty pleasure Kay Burley, or the blonde girl?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 30s30 seconds ago
    Neil Kinnock blames the voters’ 'mood + self delusion’, ‘assisted by parts of the press’ for opinion polls underestimating Tory support
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Last week, the phone pollster ELBOW had Tories 2.7% ahead! But this week they ended up giving the Blues only a 0.5% lead

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596435872121278464
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596428245328867328
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCsarahsmith: #GE2015 senior Labour sources say they have lost Edinburgh North East, Edinburgh East and Edinburgh South West

    To the tories?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    Jeez, I though we got rid of Kinnock decades ago. I really hope that Aberavon is the PC gain forecast by the exit poll?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    I think we can safely say now

    EMWNBPM

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Newcastle Central

    Lab + 9.1
    Con -0.5
    UKIP -12.7
    LD -17.8
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    I've just had a bet on a Tory majority
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Fenster said:

    If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.

    I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.

    It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.

    I reckon, anyway.

    This, fantastic post. I also hope ATOS is reformed.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Listening to Kinnock now, I don't agree with just about anything he believes in, but have no doubt he genuinely believes it. A genuinely honourable politician

    Time for Labour to clean house of the Blairite and Brownite slime that has infested it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    edited May 2015
    Fenster said:

    If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.

    I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.

    It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.

    I reckon, anyway.

    I agree entirely.

    Cut 'working age benefits' and support those who cannot support themselves.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCsarahsmith: #GE2015 senior Labour sources say they have lost Edinburgh North East, Edinburgh East and Edinburgh South West

    To the tories?

    Such a tease.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    RobD said:

    Telegraph getting their Swindon Norths and Souths mixed up. We're still waiting on a result from Swindon S (hopefully a Tory hold!)

    I nearly made that mistake
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    isam said:

    alex. said:

    How many are watching Sky Arts? Pretty sight :)

    I am, its better than the inane nonsense on the real channels

    Are you talking about my guilty pleasure Kay Burley, or the blonde girl?
    Burley? Oh mate, you've let yourself down with that one.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Prodicus said:

    antifrank said:

    Prodicus said:

    Danny565 said:

    JackW's ARSE is surely swelling to Kardashian-levels with all this vindication.

    Mindbleach now!

    He did brilliantly on the Conservatives, but bafflingly badly on the SNP. But the Tories obviously are the more important component in UK-wide terms.
    It may be the champagne but I cannot rid my mind of a horrible image combining La Kardashiana's arse and the arse of the ladyman weirdo in the moneysupermarket ad. Frightening, and an insult to the immortal JackW's ARSE. Which is obvs golden, but surely not akin to those grotesques.

    Pace JackW, that's enough arses. (Ed)

    I hope Jack is putting his Champagne to use recreating the famous Kardashian image.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    edited May 2015
    BETTING POST

    CON MAJ on Ladbrokes in from 4/1 to 7/2 over past 5 mins.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    John Curtis: don't rule out a Conservative majority
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    We're still waiting for the BBC to update their forecast. Still on C 316 Lab 239.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Prof Curtice - don't rule out possibility of Con majority.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Curtice: cannot rule out Tories over 323...
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Fenster said:

    If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.

    I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.

    It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.

    I reckon, anyway.

    You think cons care about the sick? lolz
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    John Curtiss saying cannot rule out conservative majority
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    All this praise for the ARSE and the Exit Poll... looks like they're good, but they're not quite Carling!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Battersea incoming
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    watford30 said:

    Speedy said:

    What happens to UKIP without Farage

    Carswell becomes leader.
    Leader of what, himself?
    Carswell will never be leader of a left leaning labour-alternative party filled with skin head bigots.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Curtice not ruling out a tory majority.
    blimey
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream

    Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)

    Does that actually match the way you voted?
    I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to win
    I like having the local elections the same day as the nationals. Lets me vote two ways, so I get to have my cake and eat it...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    edited May 2015
    JackW said:

    Am I going to win my bet with the Neil on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems?

    No.

    I'm not sure I trust your judgement on this election :lol:
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour wasted lots of human resources in Battarsea.....
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    UKIP doing nothing in London
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Wonder if the Exit Poll is flawed from failing to pick up all the Tory voters turning up after work?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Labour nowhere near in Battersea
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Why did Labour try so hard for Battersea? Something a bit wrong with the data.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Swing TO Conservatives in Battersea!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Battersea not close. Earlier today Labour sources were hinting it was in the mix.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Swing to the Tories in Battersea - how many were predicting that?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    I presume the "Ed is PM" party at the BBC HQ is officially cancelled now?
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    edited May 2015
    What is all this 'commonly known as' business?

    Battersy swing... wow.
    History of sorts in the making.
    The London seats seem to be the ones which are the litmus test - the Basildon of this election.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Danny565 said:

    That said, Kinnock blaming the electorate is not a good look.

    Those buggers need re-educating...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    1992 redux
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Scott_P said:

    @May2015NS: Our model says 13% win for Sadiq in Tooting… It's much closer. c. 6%

    CON MAJ!

  • dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    Irvine Times ‏@irvinetimes
    Early talk is that Philippa Whitford will win around 60% of the vote - rumours Brian Donohoe could finish third.

    I hope this is true in my constituency of Central Ayrshire Labour set to go from a majority of 12,000 to 3rd place! This has been a long time coming for Donohoe :-D
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Is it too early to thank the blue liberals for tonight!!!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tory majority in Battersea up from 5,977 to 7,938.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    Swing to Con in London! 500 activists wasted on polling day. What a waste.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    More swings to the Tories, in the metropolis no less.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Conservatives confident they've gained Halifax from Labour
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Battersea Lab disaster
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Just like 1987 :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Battersea 1.5% Lab to CON swing...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Swing to tory in London!!!!!!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Con HOLD Battersea with complete ease. Swing FROM Lab!!
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    BATTTERRRSEAA!!!!! Swing to the Tories.

    WOW WOW WOW
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Battersea swing to Con of 1.7%
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Swing to Con in Battersea.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    This is a horror show
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Battersea Con hold majority 7,938 swing 1.7% to Tories
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Lord Ashcroft's Battersea poll was actually pretty accurate.
  • JazJaz Posts: 21
    Another London seat where there is no improvement in lab vote...
  • paulyorkpaulyork Posts: 50
    Lab hammered in battersea. Lord ashcroft was right.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    I LOVE FIRST PAST THE POST
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Majority GAME ON
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    I presume the "Ed is PM" party at the BBC HQ is officially cancelled now?

    It was the "David is PM" party, but only because they confused their Milibands. Again. :-)
This discussion has been closed.