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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mea

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    Its the economy stupid !!!!

    Yep!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Andrew said:

    Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?

    Spreads still have UKIP in the 2.5 to 3.5 range. Dunno where those are, it's probably a sum of many (moderate) underdogs.
    Watch low turnout Labour seats with enormous WWC populations.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Let's just talk over the declarations shall we...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2015
    I feel my "Labour Gain Battersea" tip is about to be torn to shreds. Oops.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Prodicus said:

    Danny565 said:

    JackW's ARSE is surely swelling to Kardashian-levels with all this vindication.

    Mindbleach now!

    He did brilliantly on the Conservatives, but bafflingly badly on the SNP. But the Tories obviously are the more important component in UK-wide terms.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    currystar said:

    I just can't see how lib dems can get 5 seats

    TBF, we haven't gotten any LibDem seat results yet.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Cable in trouble - Cathy Newman.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Congrats to NCPoliticsUK. Utterly brilliant.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    BBC coverage shocking - but Emily absolutely stunning
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?

    On a personal level I wanted him to win because I think he deserved it after all the work he has done over the years and because I think he is a pretty good bloke.

    But for UKIP I think that as long as they pick up a few other seats and heartily thrash the Lib Dems in votes then I think Farage being gone as leader will be a good thing for them in the longer run. The same goes for BOO which I think will do far better with Farage out of the picture and a less controversial leader for UKIP.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    dr_spyn said:

    Cable in trouble - Cathy Newman.

    It gets better and better......
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    What a stupendous vindication of Cameron and Osborne's repositioning of the party, really.

    They have got UKIPpers out of the party, thereby detoxifying themselves, while utterly discrediting their arguments. All that UKIP crap about how Cameron's not a proper Tory and he needs them back! Jeez!

    Despite peeling away whatever % of the right, they have still routed Labour and the Lib Dems. It's cost them literally no support to achieve this.

    They've also pissed in the well for the next Labour leader, who can't be a 70s lefty because that's just failed, but can't pitch for the centre either, because a/ Cameron's Tories own the centre and b/ they can remind everyone about Blair.

    This is up there with Napoleon suckering the two Emperors at Austerlitz.

    Cameron's description of UKIP as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists looks cleverer by the day. It distanced him beautifully from them, made then shriek with ugly rage and now looks like very fair comment.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @Suttonnick: John Curtice: After 5 results the exit poll has so far underestimated the Con performance by 1 point and overestimated Labour's by 1 point.
  • paulyorkpaulyork Posts: 50
    Con minority govt my only bet still alive. Had a saver on labminority at 25/1.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    If, according to Labour, 316 seats is not enough to be a govt then 239 seats is definitely not enough either. Labour's disconnect from reality is staggering

    I have some on Lab under 250 (courtesy Jacks ARSE a week back, before it recovered to 252) and under 225 too. Not sure if I covered under 200...
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?

    No. I did. Feel sorry for the man who has brought his party from virtually nothing to be third placed in the election on votes(?) that he quite possibly hasn't been elected. Also think that the 13% or so who seem to have voted Ukip deserve to have his voice in parliament. (Yes, I know it doesn't work like that and it all comes down to constituency votes. But still.)

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    kle4 said:

    So if the exit poll is right Cameron will have to go with a minority, surely, unless the DUP are on board? The LDs won't be willing to or be wanted, which in a way is worse for Cameron as he cannot get a workable majority thanks to them anymore. Difficult for him, but still better than expected if this pans out.

    It looks like the exit poll is going under on Con!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Prodicus said:

    Danny565 said:

    JackW's ARSE is surely swelling to Kardashian-levels with all this vindication.

    Mindbleach now!

    It's all downhill for the ARSE at the moment. He was too pessimistic!



  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    On the radio it was reported George has been reported to the police.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    dr_spyn said:

    Cable in trouble - Cathy Newman.

    I think he's gone...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    So if the exit poll is right Cameron will have to go with a minority, surely, unless the DUP are on board? The LDs won't be willing to or be wanted, which in a way is worse for Cameron as he cannot get a workable majority thanks to them anymore. Difficult for him, but still better than expected if this pans out.

    They will go for a Tory minority government until they lose enough by-elections to make that unworkable.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167
    Speedy said:

    Dair said:

    Labour only need to take TEN seats off the Tories that the Exit Poll (margin 25 seats) doesn't predict for the ONLY government to form be dependent on the 62/63 SNP/Plaid MPs.

    Labour now conceding ALL except Edinburgh South in Edinburgh's five seats.

    Forget it, the Tories have won this election on the base of SNP terror, thanks SNP.
    If only SLab had picked James Kelly..
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream

    Just go and read this afternoon's thread back again... reality check.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    This result is a massive earthquake under the labour movement.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    AVE IT PROJECTS CON OVERALL MAJORITY

    Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).
    4% swing to con Swindon N much better than exit poll projection
    0% swing in London
    Con only need to do 1% swing better than 2010 in LAB targets given LD meltdown

    I project maybe 330 but DYOR!
    So a majority of 4. Thanks for that, Ave_it.
    10 (330 CON 320 OTH = 650)
    Eh? Isn't the number of a majority 326. Forgive me, I'm really tired. Even if we take in Sinn Fein not taking their seats would mean the Tories would only need 323 - a majority of 7.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?

    Nope, I wanted him to.
    Ditto.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454

    NoEasyDay said:

    Danny565 said:

    Peter Kellner: "Lib Dems privately accept they'll be atleast below 20"

    LOL unbelievable. Will they win any seats?
    What about Kellner accept his polling is shite, his predictions are shite and he has lost the right to comment,
    When you think Kellner predicted the LDs on 32 LMAO...!!!! At least my suspicions on that were right.
    Yougov have done themselves a huge amount of damage in this election. i cant help but laugh Kellner is the smuggest c@nt i have ever come across.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Smarmeron said:

    On the radio it was reported George has been reported to the police.

    Two people were arrested for being (or suspected to be) intoxicated.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    What happens to UKIP without Farage

    I hear Nick Griffin's available.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream

    Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)

    Does that actually match the way you voted?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?

    No, I did.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Lab majority in Tooting up from 2,524 to 2,842.

    Swing 0.5% from Con to Lab.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Wow tories do great in Tooting!!!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Very good performance by CON in Tooting against top LAB candidate!
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    dr_spyn said:

    Cable in trouble - Cathy Newman.

    Is his missile about to explode on the launch pad?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    It is a Tory majority . Get on
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited May 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Cable in trouble - Cathy Newman.

    Our host gave a massive clue about this weeks ago. But no one ever commented on that aspect of his vote swap.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Dan Watkins did well in Tooting, not well enough but good figures....in London, too.

    Looks like a good number of 2010 LDs are going blue, no?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Green beat Lib Den in Tooting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Tooting swing Con to Lab 0.5%
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2015
    0% swing in Tooting, even with the demographics moving towards Labour. Wow.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    ITV are showing Others on 1 - who won that?
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Bloody hell Tooting again just a 0.5% swing.

    Cons majority has got to be possible.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Wowsers the Tories got tonnes in Tooting. Maybe they should have given Sam Bailey another go?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    What a stupendous vindication of Cameron and Osborne's repositioning of the party, really.

    They have got UKIPpers out of the party, thereby detoxifying themselves, while utterly discrediting their arguments. All that UKIP crap about how Cameron's not a proper Tory and he needs them back! Jeez!

    Despite peeling away whatever % of the right, they have still routed Labour and the Lib Dems. It's cost them literally no support to achieve this.

    They've also pissed in the well for the next Labour leader, who can't be a 70s lefty because that's just failed, but can't pitch for the centre either, because a/ Cameron's Tories own the centre and b/ they can remind everyone about Blair.

    This is up there with Napoleon suckering the two Emperors at Austerlitz.

    Cameron's description of UKIP as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists looks cleverer by the day. It distanced him beautifully from them, made then shriek with ugly rage and now looks like very fair comment.

    Cameron's detractors will still go on about him not winning a majority, though. Personally I see hung parliaments/small small majorities being the future of British politics for all parties.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    This is 1992 again! Cameron is going to get to 323 isn't he!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RobD
    Reporting officer complained about a tweet he apparently made.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    KHAN LAB leader 2015!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    AndyJS - you made Tooting the wrong colour!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Gloria de Piero in trouble in Ashfield. UKIP running her very close
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    edited May 2015
    .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    antifrank said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Cable in trouble - Cathy Newman.

    Our host gave a massive clue about this weeks ago. But no one ever commented on that aspect of his vote swap.
    Er - I did!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tooting 0.5 swing.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Putney and Tooting very encouraging for Con if London is Lab's best region (excluding North East).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    marke09 said:

    ITV are showing Others on 1 - who won that?

    Speaker?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    NoEasyDay said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Danny565 said:

    Peter Kellner: "Lib Dems privately accept they'll be atleast below 20"

    LOL unbelievable. Will they win any seats?
    What about Kellner accept his polling is shite, his predictions are shite and he has lost the right to comment,
    When you think Kellner predicted the LDs on 32 LMAO...!!!! At least my suspicions on that were right.
    Yougov have done themselves a huge amount of damage in this election. i cant help but laugh Kellner is the smuggest c@nt i have ever come across.
    I feel really silly for having faith in any of the polls tbh :(
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @May2015NS: Our model says 13% win for Sadiq in Tooting… It's much closer. c. 6%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    Sandpit said:

    Sadiq Khan out?

    No, he won with a slightly increase majority.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Lab up 3.6%, Con up 3.4% in Tooting. 0.1% swing (guffaws)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 54s54 seconds ago
    Respect Party's George Galloway reported to police for allegedly tweeting about #GE2015 exit poll before its release http://bbc.co.uk/electionlive
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream

    Just go and read this afternoon's thread back again... reality check.

    We need a proper post-mortem on how bad this Tory campaign was and how the posh boys ruined it....

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Cable in trouble - Cathy Newman.

    Our host gave a massive clue about this weeks ago. But no one ever commented on that aspect of his vote swap.
    Er - I did!
    Sorry, I must have missed that.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    It is ironic that the "35% strategy" was based on Labour gaining loads of seats from LibDem voters returning home, and in the event the LibDem voters returning home has resulted in signficant Tory gains.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Miliband now 15 for PM.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Gloria de Piero in trouble in Ashfield. UKIP running her very close

    !!!
    That is surely not the second UKIP seat.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Con came close in Tooting. Not a good night for Lab in London. ? The Wandsworth effect.

    If Khan goes to be Mayor then that by election will be interesting.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS - you made Tooting the wrong colour!

    Thanks, must be getting tired, which is a bit annoying given there're another 10 hours to go.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Amazing result in Tooting. Tories lose but vote up 3%.

    Well this exit poll must be right.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    AVE IT PROJECTS CON OVERALL MAJORITY

    Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).
    4% swing to con Swindon N much better than exit poll projection
    0% swing in London
    Con only need to do 1% swing better than 2010 in LAB targets given LD meltdown

    I project maybe 330 but DYOR!
    So a majority of 4. Thanks for that, Ave_it.
    10 (330 CON 320 OTH = 650)
    Eh? Isn't the number of a majority 326. Forgive me, I'm really tired. Even if we take in Sinn Fein not taking their seats would mean the Tories would only need 323 - a majority of 7.
    That would be a majority of 15 no? 330 vs 315 (once you take off Sinn Fein)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    JDMC ‏@MotoClark 13 mins13 minutes ago

    Not for the first time, a reminder that Twitter and Britain are in fact different things. Night all. #GE2015
  • JazJaz Posts: 21
    Tories gaining votes in tooting is shocking, this seat has steadily become marginal
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS - you made Tooting the wrong colour!

    Thanks, must be getting tired, which is a bit annoying given there're another 10 hours to go.
    It's okay, would've been glorious had it been blue!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Khan doing a mayoral type speech reaching out to all parties.... wonder why.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2015
    A dignified and gracious victory speech by Sadiq Khan.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    edited May 2015
    In 2020 (?) Can we have the exit poll first??
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Greens doing very well, comparatively.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Kinnock rehashing his 1992 speech!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Wandsworth = the brighter borough? When I used to drive through it in the 70s they had a horrendous 1 way system and traffic hell.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream

    Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)

    Does that actually match the way you voted?
    I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to win
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sadiq Khan out?

    No, he won with a slightly increase majority.
    I heard it wrong, was hoping no-one had noticed!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    A muttered 'not good enough' sums it up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Kinnock!!! 1992 Redux!!!!

    Lol. Grind the bastard into the dust......
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Laugh at Kinnock. He's got his party back.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,882
    I was betting on a Tory Overall Majority about 6-8 weeks ago when the polls seemed to be moving in their direction. When their progress stalled I cancelled my position at a smallish loss. I wonder whether I should have ket the faith ....
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL 2015 = 1992 Kinnock ungracious as ever!
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Kinnock repeating his 1992 concession speech for good measure!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCsarahsmith: #GE2015 senior Labour sources say they have lost Edinburgh North East, Edinburgh East and Edinburgh South West
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Con came close in Tooting. Not a good night for Lab in London. ? The Wandsworth effect.

    If Khan goes to be Mayor then that by election will be interesting.

    On tonight's figures Labour would lose the London mayoral election.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    How may "Tories can't win " threads did our Ogh do?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream

    Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)

    Does that actually match the way you voted?
    I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to win
    Apparently Labour won by a single vote...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Neil Kinnock considering the consequences of getting his Labour party back.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Am I going to win my bet with the Neil on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    About 3 years ago I made the right decision in making the Tory target list go up to 10% swings, even though it seemed highly unlikely at that time that anything like that would be needed.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited May 2015
    JonathanD said:

    At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream

    Just go and read this afternoon's thread back again... reality check.

    We need a proper post-mortem on how bad this Tory campaign was and how the posh boys ruined it....

    Wednesday nights threads should be included too.

    Where is compouter2 tonight? Can any of you in The Finborough see him there?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    SeanT said:

    This is over. The Tories have won, quite comprehensively.

    Majority as well? I reckon that they'll squeak one.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Khan doing a mayoral type speech reaching out to all parties.... wonder why.

    Yep, was thinking exactly that. Didn't do himself any harm either.
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393

    This is 1992 again! Cameron is going to get to 323 isn't he!

    haven't you been exiled to conhome for excessive pessimism
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Kinnock isn't pretending that Labour can string together a rainbow coalition out of defeat - unlike some colleagues.

    His legacy is secured
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCsarahsmith: #GE2015 senior Labour sources say they have lost Edinburgh North East, Edinburgh East and Edinburgh South West

    Ching ching ching.
This discussion has been closed.