On a personal level I wanted him to win because I think he deserved it after all the work he has done over the years and because I think he is a pretty good bloke.
But for UKIP I think that as long as they pick up a few other seats and heartily thrash the Lib Dems in votes then I think Farage being gone as leader will be a good thing for them in the longer run. The same goes for BOO which I think will do far better with Farage out of the picture and a less controversial leader for UKIP.
What a stupendous vindication of Cameron and Osborne's repositioning of the party, really.
They have got UKIPpers out of the party, thereby detoxifying themselves, while utterly discrediting their arguments. All that UKIP crap about how Cameron's not a proper Tory and he needs them back! Jeez!
Despite peeling away whatever % of the right, they have still routed Labour and the Lib Dems. It's cost them literally no support to achieve this.
They've also pissed in the well for the next Labour leader, who can't be a 70s lefty because that's just failed, but can't pitch for the centre either, because a/ Cameron's Tories own the centre and b/ they can remind everyone about Blair.
This is up there with Napoleon suckering the two Emperors at Austerlitz.
Cameron's description of UKIP as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists looks cleverer by the day. It distanced him beautifully from them, made then shriek with ugly rage and now looks like very fair comment.
@Suttonnick: John Curtice: After 5 results the exit poll has so far underestimated the Con performance by 1 point and overestimated Labour's by 1 point.
If, according to Labour, 316 seats is not enough to be a govt then 239 seats is definitely not enough either. Labour's disconnect from reality is staggering
I have some on Lab under 250 (courtesy Jacks ARSE a week back, before it recovered to 252) and under 225 too. Not sure if I covered under 200...
No. I did. Feel sorry for the man who has brought his party from virtually nothing to be third placed in the election on votes(?) that he quite possibly hasn't been elected. Also think that the 13% or so who seem to have voted Ukip deserve to have his voice in parliament. (Yes, I know it doesn't work like that and it all comes down to constituency votes. But still.)
So if the exit poll is right Cameron will have to go with a minority, surely, unless the DUP are on board? The LDs won't be willing to or be wanted, which in a way is worse for Cameron as he cannot get a workable majority thanks to them anymore. Difficult for him, but still better than expected if this pans out.
It looks like the exit poll is going under on Con!
So if the exit poll is right Cameron will have to go with a minority, surely, unless the DUP are on board? The LDs won't be willing to or be wanted, which in a way is worse for Cameron as he cannot get a workable majority thanks to them anymore. Difficult for him, but still better than expected if this pans out.
They will go for a Tory minority government until they lose enough by-elections to make that unworkable.
Labour only need to take TEN seats off the Tories that the Exit Poll (margin 25 seats) doesn't predict for the ONLY government to form be dependent on the 62/63 SNP/Plaid MPs.
Labour now conceding ALL except Edinburgh South in Edinburgh's five seats.
Forget it, the Tories have won this election on the base of SNP terror, thanks SNP.
Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).
4% swing to con Swindon N much better than exit poll projection 0% swing in London Con only need to do 1% swing better than 2010 in LAB targets given LD meltdown
I project maybe 330 but DYOR!
So a majority of 4. Thanks for that, Ave_it.
10 (330 CON 320 OTH = 650)
Eh? Isn't the number of a majority 326. Forgive me, I'm really tired. Even if we take in Sinn Fein not taking their seats would mean the Tories would only need 323 - a majority of 7.
What a stupendous vindication of Cameron and Osborne's repositioning of the party, really.
They have got UKIPpers out of the party, thereby detoxifying themselves, while utterly discrediting their arguments. All that UKIP crap about how Cameron's not a proper Tory and he needs them back! Jeez!
Despite peeling away whatever % of the right, they have still routed Labour and the Lib Dems. It's cost them literally no support to achieve this.
They've also pissed in the well for the next Labour leader, who can't be a 70s lefty because that's just failed, but can't pitch for the centre either, because a/ Cameron's Tories own the centre and b/ they can remind everyone about Blair.
This is up there with Napoleon suckering the two Emperors at Austerlitz.
Cameron's description of UKIP as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists looks cleverer by the day. It distanced him beautifully from them, made then shriek with ugly rage and now looks like very fair comment.
Cameron's detractors will still go on about him not winning a majority, though. Personally I see hung parliaments/small small majorities being the future of British politics for all parties.
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking 54s54 seconds ago Respect Party's George Galloway reported to police for allegedly tweeting about #GE2015 exit poll before its release http://bbc.co.uk/electionlive
It is ironic that the "35% strategy" was based on Labour gaining loads of seats from LibDem voters returning home, and in the event the LibDem voters returning home has resulted in signficant Tory gains.
Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).
4% swing to con Swindon N much better than exit poll projection 0% swing in London Con only need to do 1% swing better than 2010 in LAB targets given LD meltdown
I project maybe 330 but DYOR!
So a majority of 4. Thanks for that, Ave_it.
10 (330 CON 320 OTH = 650)
Eh? Isn't the number of a majority 326. Forgive me, I'm really tired. Even if we take in Sinn Fein not taking their seats would mean the Tories would only need 323 - a majority of 7.
That would be a majority of 15 no? 330 vs 315 (once you take off Sinn Fein)
I was betting on a Tory Overall Majority about 6-8 weeks ago when the polls seemed to be moving in their direction. When their progress stalled I cancelled my position at a smallish loss. I wonder whether I should have ket the faith ....
About 3 years ago I made the right decision in making the Tory target list go up to 10% swings, even though it seemed highly unlikely at that time that anything like that would be needed.
Comments
But for UKIP I think that as long as they pick up a few other seats and heartily thrash the Lib Dems in votes then I think Farage being gone as leader will be a good thing for them in the longer run. The same goes for BOO which I think will do far better with Farage out of the picture and a less controversial leader for UKIP.
They have got UKIPpers out of the party, thereby detoxifying themselves, while utterly discrediting their arguments. All that UKIP crap about how Cameron's not a proper Tory and he needs them back! Jeez!
Despite peeling away whatever % of the right, they have still routed Labour and the Lib Dems. It's cost them literally no support to achieve this.
They've also pissed in the well for the next Labour leader, who can't be a 70s lefty because that's just failed, but can't pitch for the centre either, because a/ Cameron's Tories own the centre and b/ they can remind everyone about Blair.
This is up there with Napoleon suckering the two Emperors at Austerlitz.
Cameron's description of UKIP as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists looks cleverer by the day. It distanced him beautifully from them, made then shriek with ugly rage and now looks like very fair comment.
Does that actually match the way you voted?
Swing 0.5% from Con to Lab.
Looks like a good number of 2010 LDs are going blue, no?
Cons majority has got to be possible.
Reporting officer complained about a tweet he apparently made.
Respect Party's George Galloway reported to police for allegedly tweeting about #GE2015 exit poll before its release http://bbc.co.uk/electionlive
We need a proper post-mortem on how bad this Tory campaign was and how the posh boys ruined it....
That is surely not the second UKIP seat.
If Khan goes to be Mayor then that by election will be interesting.
Well this exit poll must be right.
Not for the first time, a reminder that Twitter and Britain are in fact different things. Night all. #GE2015
Lol. Grind the bastard into the dust......
Where is compouter2 tonight? Can any of you in The Finborough see him there?
His legacy is secured