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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mea

SystemSystem Posts: 11,699
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mean the exit poll is right

Swindon North constituency result:
CON – 50.3% (+5.7)
LAB – 27.8% (-2.7)
UKIP – 15.4% (+11.7)
LDEM – 3.3% (-14.0)
GRN – 3.3% (+2.3)

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2015
    First?

    Cameron stylee.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    We're ALLLLRIIIIGHHHTTTTTT :D
  • Options
    trubluetrublue Posts: 103
    Con majority moved from 10/1 to 5/1 on that result.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Betfair con maj bouncing around like a kangaroo in a box.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I would say to wait, but the Swindon swing is so big t the other direction that I have to call the Exit Poll looks right.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Gordon > Ed
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    Ruth Davidson is good, makes sense, no bullshit, sounds like a normal person.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,712
    I'm quietly confident....
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Peter Kellner: "Lib Dems privately accept they'll be atleast below 20"
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Times like these I'm glad I don't gamble
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058
    LibDems admit being below 20.

    Can they please be above 10.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,887
    One day Ed Milibands personal ratings and Labours poll rating were going to meet...

    That day has come!
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    I'm seeing but I'm not believing.

    If the exit poll is anywhere near right - I'm going to be sending a large amount of money to PB...

    Kellner confirming Lab to do worse under Ed than Gord !!!
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,712
    London seat incoming
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Tom Harris (the no-doubt ex-Labour MP Glasgow South) astonishingly frank and realistic on R4.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Freggles said:

    I can't believe the country is rewarding the Tories for this negative, repetitive, nasty, lacklustre campaign. 2020 campaign will be terrible.

    They are not voting on the basis of the campaign, it seems, but on five years of fairly respectable and solid governance.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058
    Recount in Bradford West...
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Anyone that suggests daily polling for the next 5 years should be locked in a room with Farage, Galloway and Ed
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Labour only need to take TEN seats off the Tories that the Exit Poll (margin 25 seats) doesn't predict for the ONLY government to form be dependent on the 62/63 SNP/Plaid MPs.

    Labour now conceding ALL except Edinburgh South in Edinburgh's five seats.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Recount in Bradford West!
  • Options
    GravitationGravitation Posts: 281
    Galloway down to a recount
  • Options
    CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Well this is all starting to be rather enjoyable.

    I wonder what Ed is going to do with his 8ft tall stone slab after all this?
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    recount in Bradford West.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,712
    Tories hold Putney
  • Options
    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    I wonder if this is 1992 part 2 that even the exit poll has underestimated the tories.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Even in London, a 0% swing for Labour.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,712
    with an increase in her vote... well done Justine!!
  • Options
    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Kevin SchofieldVerified account
    ‏@schofieldkevin
    Labour source suggests they have lost every seat they held in Scotland. Extraordinary
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058
    LibDems beat Greens in Putney!
  • Options
    Flockers_pbFlockers_pb Posts: 204
    Greening has just crushed Labour in Putney
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    AVE IT PROJECTS CON OVERALL MAJORITY
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,888
    Ishmael_X said:

    Scott_P said:

    @philipjcowley: According to the exit poll, there should have been a 1% swing to Labour in Swindon N. There was a 4.3% swing to the Conservatives.

    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,
    But to be young was very heaven!
    Wow...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058
    And they beat UKIP too!
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    CopperSulphate said:

    Well this is all starting to be rather enjoyable.

    I wonder what Ed is going to do with his 8ft tall stone slab after all this?

    Suggest a remake of 2001: A Space Odyssey?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    UKIP lose deposit in Putney!
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Robinson putting the boot into Weird Ed: "To do worse than Gordon Brown ..... extraordinary".
  • Options
    GravitationGravitation Posts: 281
    Oh to have been a fly on the wall in one of Ed's kitchens when the exit poll was announced.
  • Options
    TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    We beat a Green. Yay. I think.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058
    LibDems keep deposit :-)
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,712
    Thats 0% swing in London right?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Nick Robinson 'Worse than Gordon Brown's Labour Party, after the banking crisis and [Brown's] personal unpopularity this would be an extraordinary result' - if the exit poll proves correct.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    LDs being replaced as third party in some areas, replaced as second in others? SW no longer to be LD if you are anti-Tory? Might take more than 5 years to recover this time.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Future Pm...

    @rosschawkins: Justine Greening adds to her vote in Putney W London
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Future Pm...

    @rosschawkins: Justine Greening adds to her vote in Putney W London
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Scott_P said:

    Anyone that suggests daily polling for the next 5 years should be locked in a room with Farage, Galloway and Ed

    Not the problem. It's what you do, not how frequently you do it.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,888
    edited May 2015
    Effectively no swing in a London seat!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    UKIP lose deposit in Putney!

    Interesting. Did better in the provinces than in London.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    Putney swing 0.4% Con to Lab :lol:
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Jack's ARSE looking somewhat wobbly at the moment...
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Danny565 said:

    Peter Kellner: "Lib Dems privately accept they'll be atleast below 20"

    LOL unbelievable. Will they win any seats?
  • Options
    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    0.4% swing con>lab in Putney
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Putney 0.5% swing to Labour.

    Going horribly wrong....
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    Ch 129 is cool, Sky Arts
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited May 2015
    Just a 0.4% swing Con to Lab in Putney.

    Get on a Tory majority. Might not happen but has to be a flutter. (I'm on already.)
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,712
    If Labour can't perform in London they are utterly f*cked.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Danny565 said:

    Peter Kellner: "Lib Dems privately accept they'll be atleast below 20"

    LOL unbelievable. Will they win any seats?
    Yes.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    Anyone that suggests daily polling for the next 5 years should be locked in a room with Farage, Galloway and Ed

    Who? Who? Who?
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Putney, 0.5% swing.
    The Exit Poll is right.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    isam said:

    UKIP lose deposit in Putney!

    Let's be honest, London is not natural UKIP territory!
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Ave_it said:

    AVE IT PROJECTS CON OVERALL MAJORITY

    Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Wow, Putney! The Red Liberals split all ways.

    The exit poll is looking, if anything, too pessimistic for the blues. We shall see..
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,957
    It's back to the 80s.
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    TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Tim_B said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    Well this is all starting to be rather enjoyable.

    I wonder what Ed is going to do with his 8ft tall stone slab after all this?

    Suggest a remake of 2001: A Space Odyssey?
    EDM2015: "Just what do you think you're doing, Dave?"
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited May 2015
    Caught by the spam filter by posting too often :( blames me for being way too excited :D

    0.4% swing. LOL

    Is this 92 again, exit poll underestimating the Blues?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Absolutely great acceptance speech by Greening. Proper one nation Tory.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    Never imagined the LDs could be below 20, and that's now a hugely optimistic outcome.nincredible
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    We want BALLS
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/596464081441259520
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Milliband has cost them 25+ seats
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Mortimer said:

    Absolutely great acceptance speech by Greening. Proper one nation Tory.

    A northerner who went to a comp: Dave needs to get her back in.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,888
    This acceptance speech should sum up the Tory party.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Lib Dems = Romans at Cannae.
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    GravitationGravitation Posts: 281
    rcs1000 said:

    LibDems keep deposit :-)

    Bless.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Kevin SchofieldVerified account
    ‏@schofieldkevin
    Labour source suggests they have lost every seat they held in Scotland. Extraordinary

    Wow.

    Just wow. This is a rout. Hope they make it over the Bannock Burn without falling in and suffering their formers fate.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    Newcastle, and Cardiff South incoming...
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,712
    Its been a terrrrrribbbbllle night.... for the polling companies.
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    KentRising said:

    Freggles said:

    I can't believe the country is rewarding the Tories for this negative, repetitive, nasty, lacklustre campaign. 2020 campaign will be terrible.

    They are not voting on the basis of the campaign, it seems, but on five years of fairly respectable and solid governance.

    This.

    Labour spent most of 1992 bitching about Tory sleaze then wallowed for 13 years in sleaze beyond belief. For five years we've been free of that. Who would ever want these pricks back? Really?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It looks like the future of UKIP is Nuttall rather than any southerner. Cannot be long until some Essex seats.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    KentRising said:

    isam said:

    UKIP lose deposit in Putney!

    Let's be honest, London is not natural UKIP territory!
    Too many people affected by immigration?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,957
    SeanT said:

    Remarkable result. Ed Miliband, adieu.

    The only good news of the night.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Time to back Con gain Bootle?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Dair said:

    Labour only need to take TEN seats off the Tories that the Exit Poll (margin 25 seats) doesn't predict for the ONLY government to form be dependent on the 62/63 SNP/Plaid MPs.

    Labour now conceding ALL except Edinburgh South in Edinburgh's five seats.

    Forget it, the Tories have won this election on the base of SNP terror, thanks SNP.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Cardiff North coming soon.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Exit poll had 4.5% swing Con to Lab. Actual at Putney 0.4%

    Conservative majority?!!!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,121
    Putney swing of 0.5% to Labour nowhere near enough but better than Swindon's swing to Tories for them
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,058
    Conservatives hold Thanet South, apparently
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Cons saying they've beaten Farage
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,500
    UKIP donor says Tories have won Thanet South
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    dyedwoolie said:

    Cons saying they've beaten Farage

    YEEEEEEESS :-)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    rcs1000 said:

    Conservatives hold Thanet South, apparently

    That's worth a sip of champagne!!!!!
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Tories the only Scottish seat that isn't SNP?!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Well that's the end of Farage.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    SouthamObserver said:

    It's back to the 80s.

    Genuinely worried for the people at the bottom of society.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,680
    Just stubbed my toe wandering round the house in the dark. Ow!

    I don't know what to think right now.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    edited May 2015
    Well, well, well! What an exciting night! I go out for dinner and come back to this. It's like 1992 if this exit poll turns out to be right.

    Kudos to JackW, Antifrank, rcs and SO!

    I see that there is a recount in Bradford West. Please please please let Galloway be kicked out!
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    R5L: George Galloway reported by the returning officer for the constituency for retweeting exit poll information before the polls closed.
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    dyedwoolie said:

    Tories the only Scottish seat that isn't SNP?!

    Nope Mundell struggling.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    The nibbles have bern consumed and the wine is going. What an amazing night. I am up at 1am.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    rcs1000 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Danny565 said:

    Peter Kellner: "Lib Dems privately accept they'll be atleast below 20"

    LOL unbelievable. Will they win any seats?
    Yes.
    The question is where? They are even reporting that Sheffield Hallam is too close to call.

    Tonight has been extraordinary, even though I may not have the Labour result I would have liked.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    SandyRentool said:

    Just stubbed my toe wandering round the house in the dark. Ow!

    I don't know what to think right now.

    LOL I know how you feel. Not really sure what is happening. :dizzy:
This discussion has been closed.