politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mea
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You and Harry could be looking very foolish with your votes at the end of the night.TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to winMyBurningEars said:
Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)TheScreamingEagles said:At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream
Does that actually match the way you voted?0 -
It just gets better.dr_spyn said:BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking 54s54 seconds ago
Respect Party's George Galloway reported to police for allegedly tweeting about #GE2015 exit poll before its release http://bbc.co.uk/electionlive0 -
Kinnock on BBC! Not so allllrrrrright now, eh Neil?0
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If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.0 -
I'm listening to Rod Crosby from now on.0
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No, they'll be 1 or 2 percent short of the LDs.TheScreamingEagles said:Am I going to win my bet with the Neil on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems?
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How many are watching Sky Arts? Pretty sight
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Kinnock: Ed's done very well... looooollll0
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YAY! It certainly is.Dair said:
YESSSSPurseybear said:Galloway has lost.
Can this night get any better? YEEEEEEES
No matter anything else, in terms of the UK being a democratic country, this is the BEST RESULT OF THE NIGHT.
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Yep, complete tit.antifrank said:Neil Kinnock considering the consequences of getting his Labour party back.
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A party which launches its manifesto on the basis of "balancing the books", and which spent the whole of the debates making a virtue out of how they'd cut spending more than the SNP, is certainly not Kinnock's party.antifrank said:Neil Kinnock considering the consequences of getting his Labour party back.
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The Tory candidate in Swindon North looked shell-shocked that he'd done so well. You don't often see that on election night.0
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"Labour supporters play down rumours that Greens will win Norwich South" on STV marquee.0
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Shawn not SamFrancisUrquhart said:Wowsers the Tories got tonnes in Tooting. Maybe they should have given Sam Bailey another go?
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Say what you will about Neil Kinnock, he improved on the Labour seat totals in the elections he went into.
And he didn't erect an 8ft pledge obelisk.0 -
This poll is clearly an outlier.0
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Ashcroft could well have dissuaded tactical voters in Hallam and in Cambridge...Pulpstar said:
You and Harry could be looking very foolish with your votes at the end of the night.TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to winMyBurningEars said:
Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)TheScreamingEagles said:At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream
Does that actually match the way you voted?0 -
No.TheScreamingEagles said:Am I going to win my bet with the Neil on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems?
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LOL.....antifrank said:Neil Kinnock considering the consequences of getting his Labour party back.
He's waving his fist at the electorate again as his party crashes under the electoral waves...0 -
KINNOCKKKKKK!!!!!!
I did vote the right way after all!0 -
That said, Kinnock blaming the electorate is not a good look.0
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I'll take your word for it. The BBC have apparently said Swindon is inline with their exit poll, but Con majority is now a real real possibility, so we'll see.Saltire said:
That would be a majority of 15 no? 330 vs 315 (once you take off Sinn Fein)The_Apocalypse said:
Eh? Isn't the number of a majority 326. Forgive me, I'm really tired. Even if we take in Sinn Fein not taking their seats would mean the Tories would only need 323 - a majority of 7.Ave_it said:
10 (330 CON 320 OTH = 650)The_Apocalypse said:
So a majority of 4. Thanks for that, Ave_it.Ave_it said:
4% swing to con Swindon N much better than exit poll projectionThe_Apocalypse said:
Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).Ave_it said:AVE IT PROJECTS CON OVERALL MAJORITY
0% swing in London
Con only need to do 1% swing better than 2010 in LAB targets given LD meltdown
I project maybe 330 but DYOR!0 -
Yes he iskingbongo said:
haven't you been exiled to conhome for excessive pessimismBob__Sykes said:This is 1992 again! Cameron is going to get to 323 isn't he!
(going to get 323+) 0 -
And thats why Kinnock never became a PM.0
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What the f*** is Kinnock on about?0
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Knowing some people with disabilities, I agree.Fenster said:If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.0 -
It may be the champagne but I cannot rid my mind of a horrible image combining La Kardashiana's arse and the arse of the ladyman weirdo in the moneysupermarket ad. Frightening, and an insult to the immortal JackW's ARSE. Which is obvs golden, but surely not akin to those grotesques.antifrank said:
Pace JackW, that's enough arses. (Ed)
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kingbongo said:
Shawn not SamFrancisUrquhart said:Wowsers the Tories got tonnes in Tooting. Maybe they should have given Sam Bailey another go?
Woophhhs....of course you are right.... :-)
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Interviewing Kinnock - how ironically appropriate.0
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I blame ICMPulpstar said:
You and Harry could be looking very foolish with your votes at the end of the night.TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to winMyBurningEars said:
Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)TheScreamingEagles said:At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream
Does that actually match the way you voted?0 -
I got slightly panicked this week, too. Closed down 30% of my Tory Maj position. Still think the remaining 70% could be a winner....stjohn said:I was betting on a Tory Overall Majority about 6-8 weeks ago when the polls seemed to be moving in their direction. When their progress stalled I cancelled my position at a smallish loss. I wonder whether I should have ket the faith ....
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Fenster said:
If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions..
Well said.
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Kinnock the bitter old fool. Accept it with some dignity, graceless prat.
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Telegraph getting their Swindon Norths and Souths mixed up. We're still waiting on a result from Swindon S (hopefully a Tory hold!)0
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Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 30s30 seconds ago
Neil Kinnock blames the voters’ 'mood + self delusion’, ‘assisted by parts of the press’ for opinion polls underestimating Tory support0 -
Last week, the phone pollster ELBOW had Tories 2.7% ahead! But this week they ended up giving the Blues only a 0.5% lead
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596435872121278464
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5964282453288673280 -
To the tories?Scott_P said:@BBCsarahsmith: #GE2015 senior Labour sources say they have lost Edinburgh North East, Edinburgh East and Edinburgh South West
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Jeez, I though we got rid of Kinnock decades ago. I really hope that Aberavon is the PC gain forecast by the exit poll?0
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I think we can safely say now
EMWNBPM
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Newcastle Central
Lab + 9.1
Con -0.5
UKIP -12.7
LD -17.80 -
I've just had a bet on a Tory majority0
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This, fantastic post. I also hope ATOS is reformed.Fenster said:If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.0 -
Listening to Kinnock now, I don't agree with just about anything he believes in, but have no doubt he genuinely believes it. A genuinely honourable politician
Time for Labour to clean house of the Blairite and Brownite slime that has infested it.0 -
I agree entirely.Fenster said:If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.
Cut 'working age benefits' and support those who cannot support themselves.
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Such a tease.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
To the tories?Scott_P said:@BBCsarahsmith: #GE2015 senior Labour sources say they have lost Edinburgh North East, Edinburgh East and Edinburgh South West
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I nearly made that mistakeRobD said:Telegraph getting their Swindon Norths and Souths mixed up. We're still waiting on a result from Swindon S (hopefully a Tory hold!)
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I hope Jack is putting his Champagne to use recreating the famous Kardashian image.Prodicus said:
It may be the champagne but I cannot rid my mind of a horrible image combining La Kardashiana's arse and the arse of the ladyman weirdo in the moneysupermarket ad. Frightening, and an insult to the immortal JackW's ARSE. Which is obvs golden, but surely not akin to those grotesques.antifrank said:
Pace JackW, that's enough arses. (Ed)0 -
BETTING POST
CON MAJ on Ladbrokes in from 4/1 to 7/2 over past 5 mins.0 -
John Curtis: don't rule out a Conservative majority0
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Prof Curtice - don't rule out possibility of Con majority.0
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We're still waiting for the BBC to update their forecast. Still on C 316 Lab 239.0
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Curtice: cannot rule out Tories over 323...0
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You think cons care about the sick? lolzFenster said:If Cameron wins a majority I hope - and I hope he reads this - that he goes massive on helping people with disabilities. On helping carers and helping those who have genuinely shitty, difficult, heart-breaking lives with no money and selfless intentions.
I know Cameron will empathise with these people after what he went through with his own son. These people need more help - I've seen it in my own family with my Dad suffering from Alzheimers at 56 and my Mam having to retire to care for him.
It would be the right thing to do more to look after the genuinely needy and it could be the clause 4 moment for the Tories.
I reckon, anyway.0 -
John Curtiss saying cannot rule out conservative majority0
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All this praise for the ARSE and the Exit Poll... looks like they're good, but they're not quite Carling!0
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Battersea incoming0
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Carswell will never be leader of a left leaning labour-alternative party filled with skin head bigots.watford30 said:
Leader of what, himself?Speedy said:
Carswell becomes leader.Slackbladder said:What happens to UKIP without Farage
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Curtice not ruling out a tory majority.
blimey0 -
I like having the local elections the same day as the nationals. Lets me vote two ways, so I get to have my cake and eat it...TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to winMyBurningEars said:
Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)TheScreamingEagles said:At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream
Does that actually match the way you voted?0 -
I'm not sure I trust your judgement on this electionJackW said:
No.TheScreamingEagles said:Am I going to win my bet with the Neil on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems?
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Labour wasted lots of human resources in Battarsea.....0
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UKIP doing nothing in London0
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Wonder if the Exit Poll is flawed from failing to pick up all the Tory voters turning up after work?0
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Labour nowhere near in Battersea0
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Why did Labour try so hard for Battersea? Something a bit wrong with the data.0
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Swing TO Conservatives in Battersea!0
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Battersea not close. Earlier today Labour sources were hinting it was in the mix.0
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Swing to the Tories in Battersea - how many were predicting that?0
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I presume the "Ed is PM" party at the BBC HQ is officially cancelled now?0
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What is all this 'commonly known as' business?
Battersy swing... wow.
History of sorts in the making.
The London seats seem to be the ones which are the litmus test - the Basildon of this election.0 -
Those buggers need re-educating...Danny565 said:That said, Kinnock blaming the electorate is not a good look.
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1992 redux0
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CON MAJ!Scott_P said:@May2015NS: Our model says 13% win for Sadiq in Tooting… It's much closer. c. 6%
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Irvine Times @irvinetimes
Early talk is that Philippa Whitford will win around 60% of the vote - rumours Brian Donohoe could finish third.
I hope this is true in my constituency of Central Ayrshire Labour set to go from a majority of 12,000 to 3rd place! This has been a long time coming for Donohoe :-D0 -
Is it too early to thank the blue liberals for tonight!!!!0
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Tory majority in Battersea up from 5,977 to 7,938.0
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Swing to Con in London! 500 activists wasted on polling day. What a waste.0
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More swings to the Tories, in the metropolis no less.0
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Conservatives confident they've gained Halifax from Labour0
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Battersea Lab disaster0
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Battersea 1.5% Lab to CON swing...0
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Just like 1987 0
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Swing to tory in London!!!!!!0
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Con HOLD Battersea with complete ease. Swing FROM Lab!!0
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BATTTERRRSEAA!!!!! Swing to the Tories.
WOW WOW WOW0 -
Battersea swing to Con of 1.7%0
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Swing to Con in Battersea.0
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This is a horror show0
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Battersea Con hold majority 7,938 swing 1.7% to Tories0
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Lord Ashcroft's Battersea poll was actually pretty accurate.0
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Another London seat where there is no improvement in lab vote...0
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Lab hammered in battersea. Lord ashcroft was right.0
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I LOVE FIRST PAST THE POST0
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Majority GAME ON0
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It was the "David is PM" party, but only because they confused their Milibands. Again. :-)FrancisUrquhart said:I presume the "Ed is PM" party at the BBC HQ is officially cancelled now?
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