politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mea
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At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream0
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Yep!Big_G_NorthWales said:Its the economy stupid !!!!
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Let's just talk over the declarations shall we...0
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Watch low turnout Labour seats with enormous WWC populations.Andrew said:
Spreads still have UKIP in the 2.5 to 3.5 range. Dunno where those are, it's probably a sum of many (moderate) underdogs.CopperSulphate said:Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?
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I feel my "Labour Gain Battersea" tip is about to be torn to shreds. Oops.0
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Cable in trouble - Cathy Newman.0
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BBC coverage shocking - but Emily absolutely stunning0
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On a personal level I wanted him to win because I think he deserved it after all the work he has done over the years and because I think he is a pretty good bloke.CopperSulphate said:Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?
But for UKIP I think that as long as they pick up a few other seats and heartily thrash the Lib Dems in votes then I think Farage being gone as leader will be a good thing for them in the longer run. The same goes for BOO which I think will do far better with Farage out of the picture and a less controversial leader for UKIP.0 -
It gets better and better......dr_spyn said:Cable in trouble - Cathy Newman.
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What a stupendous vindication of Cameron and Osborne's repositioning of the party, really.
They have got UKIPpers out of the party, thereby detoxifying themselves, while utterly discrediting their arguments. All that UKIP crap about how Cameron's not a proper Tory and he needs them back! Jeez!
Despite peeling away whatever % of the right, they have still routed Labour and the Lib Dems. It's cost them literally no support to achieve this.
They've also pissed in the well for the next Labour leader, who can't be a 70s lefty because that's just failed, but can't pitch for the centre either, because a/ Cameron's Tories own the centre and b/ they can remind everyone about Blair.
This is up there with Napoleon suckering the two Emperors at Austerlitz.
Cameron's description of UKIP as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists looks cleverer by the day. It distanced him beautifully from them, made then shriek with ugly rage and now looks like very fair comment.0 -
@Suttonnick: John Curtice: After 5 results the exit poll has so far underestimated the Con performance by 1 point and overestimated Labour's by 1 point.0
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Con minority govt my only bet still alive. Had a saver on labminority at 25/1.0
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I have some on Lab under 250 (courtesy Jacks ARSE a week back, before it recovered to 252) and under 225 too. Not sure if I covered under 200...Beverley_C said:If, according to Labour, 316 seats is not enough to be a govt then 239 seats is definitely not enough either. Labour's disconnect from reality is staggering
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No. I did. Feel sorry for the man who has brought his party from virtually nothing to be third placed in the election on votes(?) that he quite possibly hasn't been elected. Also think that the 13% or so who seem to have voted Ukip deserve to have his voice in parliament. (Yes, I know it doesn't work like that and it all comes down to constituency votes. But still.)CopperSulphate said:Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?
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It looks like the exit poll is going under on Con!kle4 said:So if the exit poll is right Cameron will have to go with a minority, surely, unless the DUP are on board? The LDs won't be willing to or be wanted, which in a way is worse for Cameron as he cannot get a workable majority thanks to them anymore. Difficult for him, but still better than expected if this pans out.
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On the radio it was reported George has been reported to the police.
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They will go for a Tory minority government until they lose enough by-elections to make that unworkable.kle4 said:So if the exit poll is right Cameron will have to go with a minority, surely, unless the DUP are on board? The LDs won't be willing to or be wanted, which in a way is worse for Cameron as he cannot get a workable majority thanks to them anymore. Difficult for him, but still better than expected if this pans out.
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If only SLab had picked James Kelly..Speedy said:
Forget it, the Tories have won this election on the base of SNP terror, thanks SNP.Dair said:Labour only need to take TEN seats off the Tories that the Exit Poll (margin 25 seats) doesn't predict for the ONLY government to form be dependent on the 62/63 SNP/Plaid MPs.
Labour now conceding ALL except Edinburgh South in Edinburgh's five seats.0 -
Just go and read this afternoon's thread back again... reality check.TheScreamingEagles said:At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream
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This result is a massive earthquake under the labour movement.0
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Eh? Isn't the number of a majority 326. Forgive me, I'm really tired. Even if we take in Sinn Fein not taking their seats would mean the Tories would only need 323 - a majority of 7.Ave_it said:
10 (330 CON 320 OTH = 650)The_Apocalypse said:
So a majority of 4. Thanks for that, Ave_it.Ave_it said:
4% swing to con Swindon N much better than exit poll projectionThe_Apocalypse said:
Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).Ave_it said:AVE IT PROJECTS CON OVERALL MAJORITY
0% swing in London
Con only need to do 1% swing better than 2010 in LAB targets given LD meltdown
I project maybe 330 but DYOR!0 -
Ditto.KentRising said:
Nope, I wanted him to.CopperSulphate said:Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?
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Yougov have done themselves a huge amount of damage in this election. i cant help but laugh Kellner is the smuggest c@nt i have ever come across.The_Apocalypse said:
When you think Kellner predicted the LDs on 32 LMAO...!!!! At least my suspicions on that were right.NoEasyDay said:
What about Kellner accept his polling is shite, his predictions are shite and he has lost the right to comment,The_Apocalypse said:
LOL unbelievable. Will they win any seats?Danny565 said:Peter Kellner: "Lib Dems privately accept they'll be atleast below 20"
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I hear Nick Griffin's available.Slackbladder said:What happens to UKIP without Farage
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Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)TheScreamingEagles said:At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream
Does that actually match the way you voted?0 -
No, I did.CopperSulphate said:Am I the only person who wanted Farage to win?
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Lab majority in Tooting up from 2,524 to 2,842.
Swing 0.5% from Con to Lab.0 -
Wow tories do great in Tooting!!!0
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Very good performance by CON in Tooting against top LAB candidate!0
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It is a Tory majority . Get on0
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Our host gave a massive clue about this weeks ago. But no one ever commented on that aspect of his vote swap.dr_spyn said:Cable in trouble - Cathy Newman.
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Dan Watkins did well in Tooting, not well enough but good figures....in London, too.
Looks like a good number of 2010 LDs are going blue, no?0 -
Green beat Lib Den in Tooting.0
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Tooting swing Con to Lab 0.5%0
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0% swing in Tooting, even with the demographics moving towards Labour. Wow.0
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ITV are showing Others on 1 - who won that?0
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Bloody hell Tooting again just a 0.5% swing.
Cons majority has got to be possible.0 -
Cameron's detractors will still go on about him not winning a majority, though. Personally I see hung parliaments/small small majorities being the future of British politics for all parties.Bond_James_Bond said:What a stupendous vindication of Cameron and Osborne's repositioning of the party, really.
They have got UKIPpers out of the party, thereby detoxifying themselves, while utterly discrediting their arguments. All that UKIP crap about how Cameron's not a proper Tory and he needs them back! Jeez!
Despite peeling away whatever % of the right, they have still routed Labour and the Lib Dems. It's cost them literally no support to achieve this.
They've also pissed in the well for the next Labour leader, who can't be a 70s lefty because that's just failed, but can't pitch for the centre either, because a/ Cameron's Tories own the centre and b/ they can remind everyone about Blair.
This is up there with Napoleon suckering the two Emperors at Austerlitz.
Cameron's description of UKIP as loonies, fruitcakes and closet racists looks cleverer by the day. It distanced him beautifully from them, made then shriek with ugly rage and now looks like very fair comment.0 -
Wowsers the Tories got tonnes in Tooting. Maybe they should have given Sam Bailey another go?0
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This is 1992 again! Cameron is going to get to 323 isn't he!0
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KHAN LAB leader 2015!!!0
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AndyJS - you made Tooting the wrong colour!0
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Gloria de Piero in trouble in Ashfield. UKIP running her very close0
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Tooting 0.5 swing.0
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Putney and Tooting very encouraging for Con if London is Lab's best region (excluding North East).0
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I feel really silly for having faith in any of the polls tbhNoEasyDay said:
Yougov have done themselves a huge amount of damage in this election. i cant help but laugh Kellner is the smuggest c@nt i have ever come across.The_Apocalypse said:
When you think Kellner predicted the LDs on 32 LMAO...!!!! At least my suspicions on that were right.NoEasyDay said:
What about Kellner accept his polling is shite, his predictions are shite and he has lost the right to comment,The_Apocalypse said:
LOL unbelievable. Will they win any seats?Danny565 said:Peter Kellner: "Lib Dems privately accept they'll be atleast below 20"
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@May2015NS: Our model says 13% win for Sadiq in Tooting… It's much closer. c. 6%0
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Lab up 3.6%, Con up 3.4% in Tooting. 0.1% swing (guffaws)0
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BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking 54s54 seconds ago
Respect Party's George Galloway reported to police for allegedly tweeting about #GE2015 exit poll before its release http://bbc.co.uk/electionlive0 -
Scrapheap_as_was said:
Just go and read this afternoon's thread back again... reality check.TheScreamingEagles said:At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream
We need a proper post-mortem on how bad this Tory campaign was and how the posh boys ruined it....
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Sorry, I must have missed that.MarqueeMark said:0 -
It is ironic that the "35% strategy" was based on Labour gaining loads of seats from LibDem voters returning home, and in the event the LibDem voters returning home has resulted in signficant Tory gains.0
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Miliband now 15 for PM.0
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!!!AndreaParma_82 said:Gloria de Piero in trouble in Ashfield. UKIP running her very close
That is surely not the second UKIP seat.0 -
Con came close in Tooting. Not a good night for Lab in London. ? The Wandsworth effect.
If Khan goes to be Mayor then that by election will be interesting.
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Amazing result in Tooting. Tories lose but vote up 3%.
Well this exit poll must be right.
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That would be a majority of 15 no? 330 vs 315 (once you take off Sinn Fein)The_Apocalypse said:
Eh? Isn't the number of a majority 326. Forgive me, I'm really tired. Even if we take in Sinn Fein not taking their seats would mean the Tories would only need 323 - a majority of 7.Ave_it said:
10 (330 CON 320 OTH = 650)The_Apocalypse said:
So a majority of 4. Thanks for that, Ave_it.Ave_it said:
4% swing to con Swindon N much better than exit poll projectionThe_Apocalypse said:
Why, oh wise PBer, by how much do you predict this? (I'm being serious here).Ave_it said:AVE IT PROJECTS CON OVERALL MAJORITY
0% swing in London
Con only need to do 1% swing better than 2010 in LAB targets given LD meltdown
I project maybe 330 but DYOR!0 -
JDMC @MotoClark 13 mins13 minutes ago
Not for the first time, a reminder that Twitter and Britain are in fact different things. Night all. #GE20150 -
Tories gaining votes in tooting is shocking, this seat has steadily become marginal0
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Khan doing a mayoral type speech reaching out to all parties.... wonder why.0
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A dignified and gracious victory speech by Sadiq Khan.0
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In 2020 (?) Can we have the exit poll first??0
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Greens doing very well, comparatively.0
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Kinnock rehashing his 1992 speech!0
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Wandsworth = the brighter borough? When I used to drive through it in the 70s they had a horrendous 1 way system and traffic hell.0
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I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to winMyBurningEars said:
Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)TheScreamingEagles said:At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream
Does that actually match the way you voted?0 -
A muttered 'not good enough' sums it up.0
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Laugh at Kinnock. He's got his party back.0
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Kinnock!!! 1992 Redux!!!!
Lol. Grind the bastard into the dust......0 -
I was betting on a Tory Overall Majority about 6-8 weeks ago when the polls seemed to be moving in their direction. When their progress stalled I cancelled my position at a smallish loss. I wonder whether I should have ket the faith ....0
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LOL 2015 = 1992 Kinnock ungracious as ever!0
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Kinnock repeating his 1992 concession speech for good measure!0
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@BBCsarahsmith: #GE2015 senior Labour sources say they have lost Edinburgh North East, Edinburgh East and Edinburgh South West0
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On tonight's figures Labour would lose the London mayoral election.foxinsoxuk said:Con came close in Tooting. Not a good night for Lab in London. ? The Wandsworth effect.
If Khan goes to be Mayor then that by election will be interesting.0 -
How may "Tories can't win " threads did our Ogh do?0
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Apparently Labour won by a single vote...TheScreamingEagles said:
I voted Con, but I really want Clegg to winMyBurningEars said:
Which way are you hoping Hallam is going to go? (Now you know that the Lib Dems aren't really needed...)TheScreamingEagles said:At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream
Does that actually match the way you voted?0 -
Neil Kinnock considering the consequences of getting his Labour party back.0
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Am I going to win my bet with the Neil on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems?0
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About 3 years ago I made the right decision in making the Tory target list go up to 10% swings, even though it seemed highly unlikely at that time that anything like that would be needed.0
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Wednesday nights threads should be included too.JonathanD said:Scrapheap_as_was said:
Just go and read this afternoon's thread back again... reality check.TheScreamingEagles said:At some point I'm going to wake up from this dream
We need a proper post-mortem on how bad this Tory campaign was and how the posh boys ruined it....
Where is compouter2 tonight? Can any of you in The Finborough see him there?0 -
Yep, was thinking exactly that. Didn't do himself any harm either.Scrapheap_as_was said:Khan doing a mayoral type speech reaching out to all parties.... wonder why.
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haven't you been exiled to conhome for excessive pessimismBob__Sykes said:This is 1992 again! Cameron is going to get to 323 isn't he!
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@PickardJE: Kinnock isn't pretending that Labour can string together a rainbow coalition out of defeat - unlike some colleagues.
His legacy is secured0 -
Ching ching ching.Scott_P said:@BBCsarahsmith: #GE2015 senior Labour sources say they have lost Edinburgh North East, Edinburgh East and Edinburgh South West
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