Biden withdraws from the 2024 White House race – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Of course I don't but I have seen my father in law die in our home with our family holding his hands and him not knowing any of us, a neighbour who should not be driving become violent towards her son when he took her car keys away, and another long standing widow and friend deny all access to her home for days hiding away frightened and in denialChris said:
You seem to think you're the only person here with experience of dementia. Absurd.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Again you do not know just how stubborn Biden himself wasChris said:
It was hardly kind to put him through the last few months, let alone to run the risk of putting him through the remainder of the campaign up to polling day. And that's just considering the effect on Biden himself. There is quite a lot at stake in this election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would just caution that in my experience of dementia it is not as simple as telling someone with the condition to change courseAndy_JS said:The people who did everything they could to keep Biden in the race beyond the time it was sensible to do so should feel ashamed of themselves.
There can be anger and dismay, even denial from the patient, and key is the actions of the family and those family members closest which I hope in this case proves to be Jill Biden who without doubt would have had a difficult and highly emotional task
I have many other examples but when you are 80+ and your wife is 84 dementia is something you become very aware of1 -
I think she was just referring to that specific period. As in, “I haven’t been to lots of places, not just the border.”Andy_JS said:Can anyone clear up a strange comment Kamala Harris made a couple of days ago? She said "I've never been to Europe" but she definitely has been to Europe on several trips as vice president. So why did she say that? Maybe it was some sort of joke that isn't immediately apparent.
https://nypost.com/2021/06/08/kamala-harris-dismisses-criticism-for-not-visiting-us-border/
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/kamala-harris-poland-romania/index.html
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/15/1231464219/kamala-harris-munich-nato-trump0 -
Alternatively, going through the traditional party nomination & election process will be better than handing over the Presidency with a letter.carnforth said:
Also, if the country is used to "President Harris", they might be more likely to vote for her.williamglenn said:
Plus, Biden gets to make a woman president.0 -
Can I make a Rod Liddle joke?boulay said:…
Trump wishes he had six inches of solid bone.ydoethur said:
You're forgetting the six inches of solid bone between his ear and his brain.geoffw said:
Six millimeters more likeHeathener said:
Imagine, for a moment, if neither Trump nor Biden had made it to the vote. We were within six inches.BlancheLivermore said:This is the best election ever
One candidate has been shot and the other has pulled out before it's even started
There's surely huge intrigue and interest to come
The Dem nomination for starters..
Just a reminder too that Trump is no spring chicken. Trump will be older than Biden is now by the end of term in January 2029
If the Dems are sensible they might well show up his age to their advantage.
But are they sensible?0 -
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And she’s had four years of crap being thrown at her to toughen up.nico679 said:
She won’t just stand there like a pinata taking hit after hit . She was perfectly fine in 2020 against Pence .Nunu5 said:Whisper it: I don't think Kamala is that good at debates. And it's far from certain she would beat trump in one.
It will be very interesting to see if she can step up.2 -
Trump spectacularly misses an opportunity to pitch for the independents:
Donald Trump had this to say about Joe Biden’s decision to exit the race, as posted on Truth Social:
"Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for President, and is certainly not fit to serve - And never was! He only attained the position of President by lies, Fake News, and not leaving his Basement. All those around him, including his Doctor and the Media, knew that he wasn’t capable of being President, and he wasn’t - And now, look what he’s done to our Country, with millions of people coming across our Border, totally unchecked and unvetted, many from prisons, mental institutions, and record numbers of terrorists. We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will remedy the damage he has done very quickly. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jul/21/biden-drops-out-presidential-election1 -
She's probably an American Theresa May/Sunak hybrid candidate.Andy_JS said:Can anyone clear up a strange comment Kamala Harris made a couple of days ago? She said "I've never been to Europe" but she definitely has been to Europe on several trips as vice president. So why did she say that? Maybe it was some sort of joke that isn't immediately apparent.
https://nypost.com/2021/06/08/kamala-harris-dismisses-criticism-for-not-visiting-us-border/
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/kamala-harris-poland-romania/index.html
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/15/1231464219/kamala-harris-munich-nato-trump
Trump probably wins.0 -
Striking that no other big names seem to have said anything in support of Harris yet.0
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Not often I agree with you. But 100% this.squareroot2 said:They have to support whomever they chose up to the hilt. It must be a united front against Trump.
1 -
He is now the oldest nominee in US history.TheScreamingEagles said:The absolute banter outcome now is for the Dems to run on Trump’s age and mental capacity to do the job.
https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815089099050799595
The geriatric buffoon.1 -
I reckon these hypothetical polls are likely to be even more misleading than hypothetical polls in general.Wulfrun_Phil said:
The latest 538 polls had Harris polling better than Biden in some polls, with others showing the opposite.HYUFD said:
Not at all, Trump currently leads Harris by 5%, 44% to 38.5% on average with Kennedy on 10.5%, Stein on 2% and West on 1.5%.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Kamala surely odds on to win the election now.
If repeated in November that would be the lowest Democratic voteshare in a general election since McGovern's 37.5% in 1972 when Nixon crushed him by a landslide. Trump would win the popular vote and the biggest GOP victory margin since Bush 41 over Dukakis in 1988
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_harris_vs_kennedy_vs_stein_vs_west-8510.html
"Currently" means nothing. Every poll is outdated now. Hypothetical polls are different to real ones.
What can be reasonably predicted now is that:
1. Approval of Biden will recover to a degree now, just as the approval ratings of every retiring president improve in their final couple of months after November, provided that they conduct themselves with grace.
2. Harris's polling will improve by virtue of:
- her new status as Biden's nominated heir
- the fact that her candidacy in a hypothetical poll would no longer imply a disloyal challenge to a president running for a second term
- the newfound unity amongst Democrats, for I doubt if she will face any serious challenge
- potentially a strong VP pick to join Harris on the ticket
I think as presumptive nominee, Biden would get the full benefit of anti-Trump sentiment, in a way that hypothetical alternatives wouldn't. Let's see some polls where it's a definite choice between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.0 -
Only fair considering I had made a liddle rod joke.rcs1000 said:
Can I make a Rod Liddle joke?boulay said:…
Trump wishes he had six inches of solid bone.ydoethur said:
You're forgetting the six inches of solid bone between his ear and his brain.geoffw said:
Six millimeters more likeHeathener said:
Imagine, for a moment, if neither Trump nor Biden had made it to the vote. We were within six inches.BlancheLivermore said:This is the best election ever
One candidate has been shot and the other has pulled out before it's even started
There's surely huge intrigue and interest to come
The Dem nomination for starters..
Just a reminder too that Trump is no spring chicken. Trump will be older than Biden is now by the end of term in January 2029
If the Dems are sensible they might well show up his age to their advantage.
But are they sensible?0 -
He just risks looking like a meanieAndy_JS said:Full quote from Johnson.
https://x.com/SpeakerJohnson/status/1815093011669516433
"Speaker Mike Johnson
@SpeakerJohnson
At this unprecedented juncture in American history, we must be clear about what just happened. The Democrat Party forced the Democrat nominee off the ballot, just over 100 days before the election.
Having invalidated the votes of more than 14 million Americans who selected Joe Biden to be the Democrat nominee for president, the self-proclaimed ‘party of democracy’ has proven exactly the opposite.
The party’s prospects are no better now with Vice President Kamala Harris, who co-owns the disastrous policy failures of the Biden Administration. As second in command and a completely inept border czar, Harris has been a gleeful accomplice — not only in the destruction of American sovereignty, security, and prosperity, but also in the largest political coverup in U.S. history. She has known for as long as anyone of his incapacity to serve.
Regardless of the chaos in the current White House, our adversaries around the globe should be reminded that the U.S. Congress, the U.S. military, and the American people are fully prepared and committed to defend our interests both at home and abroad.
If Joe Biden is not fit to run for President, he is not fit to serve as President. He must resign the office immediately. November 5 cannot arrive soon enough."0 -
Women even voted for Hillary, polls show Harris less popular with blacks than Obama was. She has no connection with those white working class rustbelt males who voted for Trump in 2016 and switched to Biden in 2020, the likes of Buttigieg would have more connection with Independents and suburban white graduates than she does tooMexicanpete said:...
Have you considered the Women's vote, have you considered Kamala 's ethnicity and that Trump is going to appear utterly bonkers when debating Kamala.There might also be a sympathy vote for the Dems in respect of Biden's capitulation. Don't forget "Crooked Joe" ( and only Trump believes he is crooked) has gone for the good of country and party, and although Trump now believes he is probably Jesus having survived an assassination attempt, he is not.HYUFD said:
Trump gets a look in if that is the case certainly, in fact he is odds on to return to the White House against HarrisDavidL said:
He's endorsed Harris now. I just don't see how anyone else gets a look in at this point.williamglenn said:
The failure to endorse Harris shows that Pelosi has got her way on a contested convention, so that's moot.Nigelb said:
“I will speak to the nation later this week.”Pulpstar said:No stepping down from POTUS, no endorsement of Harris. "Over to you Pelosi you sort this shitshow out "
The VP market is very interesting.
Is Shapiro really a shoe in ?
You may be right of course, but I don't believe you have considered anything other than hypothetical polling and made some bizarre extrapolation from Nixon/ McGovern.0 -
Which is valid, and avoids a potential admission to the opposition accusation that Biden is unfit now and that has been covered up, but there's not really a way to avoid the attack line that his staying in part is to avoid her taking over as she is not up to it.Mexicanpete said:
No it doesn't.williamglenn said:
He could argue he is fine to continue now, but another four years at his ( or Trump's age ) is a stretch.
I don't think that's true, but bear in mind that the 2-3% of voters who will decide the election whose minds are not made up are explicitly those already unclear on who they prefer between Biden and Trump, so are precisely the kind of people who are at least potentially receptive of that attack.0 -
Please just don't say to other people "you do not know ..." Most of us do.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course I don't but I have seen my father in law die in our home with our family holding his hands and him not knowing any of us, a neighbour who should not be driving become violent towards her son when he took her car keys away, and another long standing widow and friend deny all access to her home for days hiding away frightened and in denialChris said:
You seem to think you're the only person here with experience of dementia. Absurd.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Again you do not know just how stubborn Biden himself wasChris said:
It was hardly kind to put him through the last few months, let alone to run the risk of putting him through the remainder of the campaign up to polling day. And that's just considering the effect on Biden himself. There is quite a lot at stake in this election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would just caution that in my experience of dementia it is not as simple as telling someone with the condition to change courseAndy_JS said:The people who did everything they could to keep Biden in the race beyond the time it was sensible to do so should feel ashamed of themselves.
There can be anger and dismay, even denial from the patient, and key is the actions of the family and those family members closest which I hope in this case proves to be Jill Biden who without doubt would have had a difficult and highly emotional task
I have many other examples but when you are 80+ and your wife is 84 dementia is something you become very aware of0 -
I hate that guy too. But he’s perfectly correct of course.Nigelb said:
Predictably, remains a graceless twat.Andy_JS said:Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.
The US President doesn’t just ratify the legislature’s bills or act as the symbol of the nation. They are Commander in Chief of the world’s supreme military.
Seems pretty obvious to me that a large part of the world’s instability can be blamed on his weakness in that third role (actual and perceived by enemies).
Also, if Kamala is to be the candidate, her best shot of winning is to get the credibility bump from 10 weeks standing in front of the presidential seal. This soft endorsement favours almost no one but DJT.
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Shapiro might be the first...williamglenn said:Striking that no other big names seem to have said anything in support of Harris yet.
0 -
Can all the PB….
“Its just a stammer”
….guys not take a second to step back and say, even if only for a moment? -
OK I GOT THAT HORRIBLY WRONG
Thanks. Asking for all the sane people on PB6 -
The GOP are so butthurt.Andy_JS said:Full quote from Johnson.
https://x.com/SpeakerJohnson/status/1815093011669516433
"Speaker Mike Johnson
@SpeakerJohnson
At this unprecedented juncture in American history, we must be clear about what just happened. The Democrat Party forced the Democrat nominee off the ballot, just over 100 days before the election.
Having invalidated the votes of more than 14 million Americans who selected Joe Biden to be the Democrat nominee for president, the self-proclaimed ‘party of democracy’ has proven exactly the opposite.
The party’s prospects are no better now with Vice President Kamala Harris, who co-owns the disastrous policy failures of the Biden Administration. As second in command and a completely inept border czar, Harris has been a gleeful accomplice — not only in the destruction of American sovereignty, security, and prosperity, but also in the largest political coverup in U.S. history. She has known for as long as anyone of his incapacity to serve.
Regardless of the chaos in the current White House, our adversaries around the globe should be reminded that the U.S. Congress, the U.S. military, and the American people are fully prepared and committed to defend our interests both at home and abroad.
If Joe Biden is not fit to run for President, he is not fit to serve as President. He must resign the office immediately. November 5 cannot arrive soon enough."1 -
Kamala v Trump.
Not a great choice0 -
I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.
@bigjohnowls and Starmer
@Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
@rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
@HYUFD and Kamala Harris12 -
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That if he is not fit to run for four more years he is not fit to remain as president for 5 more months is easy enough to refute, but I expect we'll hear about it relentlessly, since at least some percentage even of Democrats will also believe it.Nunu5 said:
He just risks looking like a meanieAndy_JS said:Full quote from Johnson.
https://x.com/SpeakerJohnson/status/1815093011669516433
"Speaker Mike Johnson
@SpeakerJohnson
At this unprecedented juncture in American history, we must be clear about what just happened. The Democrat Party forced the Democrat nominee off the ballot, just over 100 days before the election.
Having invalidated the votes of more than 14 million Americans who selected Joe Biden to be the Democrat nominee for president, the self-proclaimed ‘party of democracy’ has proven exactly the opposite.
The party’s prospects are no better now with Vice President Kamala Harris, who co-owns the disastrous policy failures of the Biden Administration. As second in command and a completely inept border czar, Harris has been a gleeful accomplice — not only in the destruction of American sovereignty, security, and prosperity, but also in the largest political coverup in U.S. history. She has known for as long as anyone of his incapacity to serve.
Regardless of the chaos in the current White House, our adversaries around the globe should be reminded that the U.S. Congress, the U.S. military, and the American people are fully prepared and committed to defend our interests both at home and abroad.
If Joe Biden is not fit to run for President, he is not fit to serve as President. He must resign the office immediately. November 5 cannot arrive soon enough."0 -
Why ?williamglenn said:1 -
Utter prick.Benpointer said:Trump spectacularly misses an opportunity to pitch for the independents:
Donald Trump had this to say about Joe Biden’s decision to exit the race, as posted on Truth Social:
"Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for President, and is certainly not fit to serve - And never was! He only attained the position of President by lies, Fake News, and not leaving his Basement. All those around him, including his Doctor and the Media, knew that he wasn’t capable of being President, and he wasn’t - And now, look what he’s done to our Country, with millions of people coming across our Border, totally unchecked and unvetted, many from prisons, mental institutions, and record numbers of terrorists. We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will remedy the damage he has done very quickly. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jul/21/biden-drops-out-presidential-election0 -
Another truly dire dinner in France. It is exceptional how often they now fuck up. Frozen food with a drizzle of balsamic vinegar around the plate to fake its freshness
Utterly awful. It’s down at the level of Dutch food now. Without the herrings0 -
Semiautomatics are illegal here.Casino_Royale said:
Jesus, there must be a lot of snipers round there.Andy_JS said:Useless fact: at Trent Bridge yesterday I saw a group of about 5 men wearing bandages on their right ear.
Make of that what you will.
So it was someone with a Lee-Enfield doing a Mad Minute?
Kind of thing that makes you proud to be British.0 -
She is a liberal coastal elitist who is pro reparations for slavery and pro transgender bathrooms, she may be the dream candidate for woke rich California liberals like the Duchess of Sussex but she is not for Middle America.WillG said:
She was born to an immigrant mother and a black American father before blacks got civil rights. Her politics are in the middle of the Democratic party and she was tough on crime. You are just projecting sexism and racism on to her politics.HYUFD said:
Exactly, he is articulate and from a Midwest state and has some charisma.geoffw said:They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance
Harris has the elitist air of liberal coastal entitlement Hillary had, with the charisma of Kerry and the ideology of Dukakis, Trump would love to run against a limousine liberal like her in the rustbelt where she has about as much connection with the white working class as you would expect a former California lawyer to have
Indeed she would have been better off endorsing Shapiro or Buttigieg in the hope of a SC nomination if they win (she is a capable lawyer granted) but she is not an effective campaigner and has no charisma1 -
Yes, but the contrast of being young and articulate vs dozy Donald will draw sharp attention to Trump also being too old and mentally unfit.HYUFD said:
John Kerry was also a prosecutor, fat lot of good it did him against Bush!WillG said:
Harris is a prosecutor that represents law and order against the convicted criminal leading the Republicans.HYUFD said:Game, set and match Trump if the Democrats endorse Harris after Biden's withdrawal and follow his mistaken recommendation.
Harris would lose all the rustbelt swing states Biden won in 2020 and probably lead the Democrats to their worst defeat in the Electoral College since Dukakis as well as losing the popular vote.
Newsom would be just as bad, Democrats only hope now a rustbelt governor like Shapiro or Buttigieg
It will send Trump wild to lose to a black female.0 -
Who is the sane person on PB?Leon said:Can all the PB….
“Its just a stammer”
….guys not take a second to step back and say, even if only for a moment? -
OK I GOT THAT HORRIBLY WRONG
Thanks. Asking for all the sane people on PB0 -
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I have Ossoff £4 @ 112.28 but you can currently get him at 200:rcs1000 said:
I would add Ossoff to the list.WillG said:Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and Pete Buttigieg would have to be the best VP picks.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190716127
Whereas Newsome is 20, Harris is 22, Michelle is 25 and Clinton is 40 if you want to waste money.0 -
So if Pete is on the ticket - the job is a good 'un.HYUFD said:
Women even voted for Hillary, polls show Harris less popular with blacks than Obama was. She has no connection with those white working class rustbelt males who voted for Trump in 2016 and switched to Biden in 2020, the likes of Buttigieg would have more connection with Independents and suburban white graduates than she does tooMexicanpete said:...
Have you considered the Women's vote, have you considered Kamala 's ethnicity and that Trump is going to appear utterly bonkers when debating Kamala.There might also be a sympathy vote for the Dems in respect of Biden's capitulation. Don't forget "Crooked Joe" ( and only Trump believes he is crooked) has gone for the good of country and party, and although Trump now believes he is probably Jesus having survived an assassination attempt, he is not.HYUFD said:
Trump gets a look in if that is the case certainly, in fact he is odds on to return to the White House against HarrisDavidL said:
He's endorsed Harris now. I just don't see how anyone else gets a look in at this point.williamglenn said:
The failure to endorse Harris shows that Pelosi has got her way on a contested convention, so that's moot.Nigelb said:
“I will speak to the nation later this week.”Pulpstar said:No stepping down from POTUS, no endorsement of Harris. "Over to you Pelosi you sort this shitshow out "
The VP market is very interesting.
Is Shapiro really a shoe in ?
You may be right of course, but I don't believe you have considered anything other than hypothetical polling and made some bizarre extrapolation from Nixon/ McGovern.
Bizarrely Trump retains a decent base plus a big number of independents. I am not sure he is as popular as you claim or Kamala is as reviled as you suggest.0 -
It's an easy choice.Taz said:Kamala v Trump.
Not a great choice6 -
So what's Trump's insulting nickname for Kamala? Crazy Kamala or similar I assume.0
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While it would have been better if Biden had stood down months ago, the delay in Biden's decision over the past week has on balance been to the Democrats' advantage, because the decision came after the Republican convention rather than on the eve of it or during it. The Republicans have been denied the opportunity to focus all the energy of their convention into an attack on Harris. The media focus will now be on Harris rather than what the Republicans say about Harris, so she'll be defining her own campaign rather than giving the Republicans the first opportunity to define it for her.
So I wonder if the decision was made a few days ago.0 -
@TSE and pineapple on Pizza?rcs1000 said:I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.
@bigjohnowls and Starmer
@Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
@rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
@HYUFD and Kamala Harris2 -
They certainly did get it wrong, they missed out the apostrophe in it's.Leon said:Can all the PB….
“Its just a stammer”
….guys not take a second to step back and say, even if only for a moment? -
OK I GOT THAT HORRIBLY WRONG
Thanks. Asking for all the sane people on PB
Seriously though, who are all these mythical PBers? I haven't anyone posting in the past year that there was nothing wrong with Biden.0 -
Me of course.JosiasJessop said:
Who is the sane person on PB?Leon said:Can all the PB….
“Its just a stammer”
….guys not take a second to step back and say, even if only for a moment? -
OK I GOT THAT HORRIBLY WRONG
Thanks. Asking for all the sane people on PB
I'm so sane it's insane.1 -
Was he ?AbandonedHope said:In an earlier thread (and by earlier I mean last year) I suggested that Harris had been much more ‘present’ in the media and in public. She was tweeting or commenting on matters in a separate capacity, almost as if she was preparing the ground for a run.
For those talking of a run by Gavin Newsom, I’d suggest you haud your wheesht. Newsom was married to Kimberly Guilfoyle who is, of course, now engaged to Don Jr.
I’m nit suggesting that she would use here knowledge of the candidate against him buy, nor make any spurious allegations, but hey, you know, shit happens.
Doesn’t speak well of his judgment.0 -
If you took that comment personally I would like to apologise as I have no intention to offend anyone over the distressing nature of dementia and those loved ones who have witnessed it first hand in all its emotional elementsChris said:
Please just don't say to other people "you do not know ..." Most of us do.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course I don't but I have seen my father in law die in our home with our family holding his hands and him not knowing any of us, a neighbour who should not be driving become violent towards her son when he took her car keys away, and another long standing widow and friend deny all access to her home for days hiding away frightened and in denialChris said:
You seem to think you're the only person here with experience of dementia. Absurd.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Again you do not know just how stubborn Biden himself wasChris said:
It was hardly kind to put him through the last few months, let alone to run the risk of putting him through the remainder of the campaign up to polling day. And that's just considering the effect on Biden himself. There is quite a lot at stake in this election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would just caution that in my experience of dementia it is not as simple as telling someone with the condition to change courseAndy_JS said:The people who did everything they could to keep Biden in the race beyond the time it was sensible to do so should feel ashamed of themselves.
There can be anger and dismay, even denial from the patient, and key is the actions of the family and those family members closest which I hope in this case proves to be Jill Biden who without doubt would have had a difficult and highly emotional task
I have many other examples but when you are 80+ and your wife is 84 dementia is something you become very aware of0 -
Cackling Kamalakle4 said:So what's Trump's insulting nickname for Kamala? Crazy Kamala or similar I assume.
0 -
Never mind. We are off for a Cornish Curry.Leon said:Another truly dire dinner in France. It is exceptional how often they now fuck up. Frozen food with a drizzle of balsamic vinegar around the plate to fake its freshness
Utterly awful. It’s down at the level of Dutch food now. Without the herrings0 -
Trump has charisma, Harris does not.Foxy said:
Yes, but the contrast of being young and articulate vs dozy Donald will draw sharp attention to Trump also being too old and mentally unfit.HYUFD said:
John Kerry was also a prosecutor, fat lot of good it did him against Bush!WillG said:
Harris is a prosecutor that represents law and order against the convicted criminal leading the Republicans.HYUFD said:Game, set and match Trump if the Democrats endorse Harris after Biden's withdrawal and follow his mistaken recommendation.
Harris would lose all the rustbelt swing states Biden won in 2020 and probably lead the Democrats to their worst defeat in the Electoral College since Dukakis as well as losing the popular vote.
Newsom would be just as bad, Democrats only hope now a rustbelt governor like Shapiro or Buttigieg
It will send Trump wild to lose to a black female.
Harris is the candidate of Hollywood, Silicon Valley and liberal lawyers as Hillary was, not the manufacturers and farmers and small business people Trump is (even Biden had more appeal to them as he showed in 2020)0 -
I hope so. The large number of independents who are at best only midly irked by Trump being a convicted criminal and election denier are the key, is the hope they were so put off by BIden's frailty that they will swing en masse behind Kamala? I struggle to see it.Mexicanpete said:
So if Pete is on the ticket - the job is a good 'un.HYUFD said:
Women even voted for Hillary, polls show Harris less popular with blacks than Obama was. She has no connection with those white working class rustbelt males who voted for Trump in 2016 and switched to Biden in 2020, the likes of Buttigieg would have more connection with Independents and suburban white graduates than she does tooMexicanpete said:...
Have you considered the Women's vote, have you considered Kamala 's ethnicity and that Trump is going to appear utterly bonkers when debating Kamala.There might also be a sympathy vote for the Dems in respect of Biden's capitulation. Don't forget "Crooked Joe" ( and only Trump believes he is crooked) has gone for the good of country and party, and although Trump now believes he is probably Jesus having survived an assassination attempt, he is not.HYUFD said:
Trump gets a look in if that is the case certainly, in fact he is odds on to return to the White House against HarrisDavidL said:
He's endorsed Harris now. I just don't see how anyone else gets a look in at this point.williamglenn said:
The failure to endorse Harris shows that Pelosi has got her way on a contested convention, so that's moot.Nigelb said:
“I will speak to the nation later this week.”Pulpstar said:No stepping down from POTUS, no endorsement of Harris. "Over to you Pelosi you sort this shitshow out "
The VP market is very interesting.
Is Shapiro really a shoe in ?
You may be right of course, but I don't believe you have considered anything other than hypothetical polling and made some bizarre extrapolation from Nixon/ McGovern.
Bizarrely Trump retains a decent base plus a big number of independents. I am not sure he is as popular as you claim or Kamala is as reviled as you suggest.1 -
@Leon and Liz Trussrcs1000 said:I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.
@bigjohnowls and Starmer
@Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
@rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
@HYUFD and Kamala Harris1 -
Plus Kamala will be the news story, not Donald's ear.Chris said:
I reckon these hypothetical polls are likely to be even more misleading than hypothetical polls in general.Wulfrun_Phil said:
The latest 538 polls had Harris polling better than Biden in some polls, with others showing the opposite.HYUFD said:
Not at all, Trump currently leads Harris by 5%, 44% to 38.5% on average with Kennedy on 10.5%, Stein on 2% and West on 1.5%.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Kamala surely odds on to win the election now.
If repeated in November that would be the lowest Democratic voteshare in a general election since McGovern's 37.5% in 1972 when Nixon crushed him by a landslide. Trump would win the popular vote and the biggest GOP victory margin since Bush 41 over Dukakis in 1988
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_harris_vs_kennedy_vs_stein_vs_west-8510.html
"Currently" means nothing. Every poll is outdated now. Hypothetical polls are different to real ones.
What can be reasonably predicted now is that:
1. Approval of Biden will recover to a degree now, just as the approval ratings of every retiring president improve in their final couple of months after November, provided that they conduct themselves with grace.
2. Harris's polling will improve by virtue of:
- her new status as Biden's nominated heir
- the fact that her candidacy in a hypothetical poll would no longer imply a disloyal challenge to a president running for a second term
- the newfound unity amongst Democrats, for I doubt if she will face any serious challenge
- potentially a strong VP pick to join Harris on the ticket
I think as presumptive nominee, Biden would get the full benefit of anti-Trump sentiment, in a way that hypothetical alternatives wouldn't. Let's see some polls where it's a definite choice between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.0 -
My Texan students suggested that her role a# a prosecutor, prosecuting black people as a person of colour does not enhance her reputation among black voters.kle4 said:
What's so bad about Kamala? The worst accsuation I can recall against her is essentially being a bit crap, which as far as some of the choices go could be a lot worse even though it is not exactly inspirting.Taz said:Kamala v Trump.
Not a great choice0 -
@TheBritishElectorate and Liz TrussBenpointer said:
@Leon and Liz Trussrcs1000 said:I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.
@bigjohnowls and Starmer
@Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
@rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
@HYUFD and Kamala Harris5 -
I don't hate Harris, she is clearly an intelligent woman and an able lawyer but I just think she is unelectable in Middle Americarcs1000 said:I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.
@bigjohnowls and Starmer
@Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
@rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
@HYUFD and Kamala Harris0 -
If they play their cards right the momentum for Karmala Harris could be unstoppable. Very much down to the zeitgeist. One thing which has gone unnoticed is how bad Trump has looked lately. Particularly at his convention. Again if the cards fall kindly Harris should become an easier sell than Trump.0
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Can I ask Casino why he has given me a "troll" for a perfectly reasonable comment on the last thread? TSE has mentioned before that the troll button is not simply an opportunity to dismiss posts one disagrees with.0
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She was on the ticket with Biden so has at least some arguable democratic endorsement, and if not the chosen option they would be totally split and ruined, I don't see they had much choice.HYUFD said:
She is a liberal coastal elitist who is pro reparations for slavery and pro transgender bathrooms, she may be the dream candidate for woke rich California liberals like the Duchess of Sussex but she is not for Middle America.WillG said:
She was born to an immigrant mother and a black American father before blacks got civil rights. Her politics are in the middle of the Democratic party and she was tough on crime. You are just projecting sexism and racism on to her politics.HYUFD said:
Exactly, he is articulate and from a Midwest state and has some charisma.geoffw said:They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance
Harris has the elitist air of liberal coastal entitlement Hillary had, with the charisma of Kerry and the ideology of Dukakis, Trump would love to run against a limousine liberal like her in the rustbelt where she has about as much connection with the white working class as you would expect a former California lawyer to have
Indeed she would have been better off endorsing Shapiro or Buttigieg in the hope of a SC nomination if they win (she is a capable lawyer granted) but she is not an effective campaigner and has no charisma0 -
Anyone who mentioned his “stammer” in the past 12-18 months as a way of excuse. They know who they areBenpointer said:
They certainly did get it wrong, they missed out the apostrophe in it's.Leon said:Can all the PB….
“Its just a stammer”
….guys not take a second to step back and say, even if only for a moment? -
OK I GOT THAT HORRIBLY WRONG
Thanks. Asking for all the sane people on PB
Seriously though, who are all these mythical PBers? I haven't anyone posting in the past year that there was nothing wrong with Biden.0 -
Perhaps they give the crap food to British tourists and save the better stuff for locals.Leon said:Another truly dire dinner in France. It is exceptional how often they now fuck up. Frozen food with a drizzle of balsamic vinegar around the plate to fake its freshness
Utterly awful. It’s down at the level of Dutch food now. Without the herrings
You need to tell them who you are.0 -
As an aside, I'm fairly sure that someone on PB posted that Biden was going to have a talk with his family, friends and associates this weekend and possibly resign. Can anyone remember the post and poster?0
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Hope the weather picks up it has been crap so far this year, beautiful area though and Turnberry is superb.Omnium said:
I'm sure it'll be great, and I hope you have a great break. I'm sure you'll find reasons to not choose Trump in the future though.TheScreamingEagles said:
Actually I am going to Trump's hotel in Scotland for the first part of the August holiday.Omnium said:
Is Clacton what it was though?TheScreamingEagles said:
I am absolutely knackered.Peter_the_Punter said:
It's TSE.viewcode said:JESUS EFFING FLIP! I GO AWAY FOR A FEW HOURS (I did some DIY. It's a bit wobbly) AND THIS BLOODY HAPPENS. IT'S YOUR FAULT PB! BAD YOU!
He's been behind every world crisis since he started editing the Site.
A public service announcement.
I am taking a holiday from the 16th of August through to the 26th of August.
Maidens is nearby and Wildings is a great restaurant though may need booking.0 -
I wish I had your optimism. But it is true Trump has not looked physically or verbally well for some time. He's been under a lot of pressure himself, even if his legal cases (bar one) have gone exactly as he would have liked in the last few months.Roger said:If they play their cards right the momentum for Karmala Harris could be unstoppable. Very much down to the zeitgeist. One thing which has gone unnoticed is how bad Trump has looked lately. Particularly at his convention. Again if the cards fall kindly Harris should become an easier sell than Trump.
0 -
Also, the ‘assassination attempt’ narrative is beginning to develop holes.Mexicanpete said:...
Have you considered the Women's vote, have you considered Kamala 's ethnicity and that Trump is going to appear utterly bonkers when debating Kamala.There might also be a sympathy vote for the Dems in respect of Biden's capitulation. Don't forget "Crooked Joe" ( and only Trump believes he is crooked) has gone for the good of country and party, and although Trump now believes he is probably Jesus having survived an assassination attempt, he is not.HYUFD said:
Trump gets a look in if that is the case certainly, in fact he is odds on to return to the White House against HarrisDavidL said:
He's endorsed Harris now. I just don't see how anyone else gets a look in at this point.williamglenn said:
The failure to endorse Harris shows that Pelosi has got her way on a contested convention, so that's moot.Nigelb said:
“I will speak to the nation later this week.”Pulpstar said:No stepping down from POTUS, no endorsement of Harris. "Over to you Pelosi you sort this shitshow out "
The VP market is very interesting.
Is Shapiro really a shoe in ?
You may be right of course, but I don't believe you have considered anything other than hypothetical polling and made some bizarre extrapolation from Nixon/ McGovern.
The “they tried to kill me” thing has now probably turned out to be just another sad loner trying to make himself famous by killing people.
Not much different from the school shooters that decades of Republican pro gun policy has enabled.2 -
I don't think they did.Nunu5 said:
Why did people claim until the end it was just a stutter/stammer? Political bias?Leon said:Can all the PB….
“Its just a stammer”
….guys not take a second to step back and say, even if only for a moment? -
OK I GOT THAT HORRIBLY WRONG
Thanks. Asking for all the sane people on PB1 -
45% will vote for Trump. 45% will vote against Trump.Mexicanpete said:
So if Pete is on the ticket - the job is a good 'un.HYUFD said:
Women even voted for Hillary, polls show Harris less popular with blacks than Obama was. She has no connection with those white working class rustbelt males who voted for Trump in 2016 and switched to Biden in 2020, the likes of Buttigieg would have more connection with Independents and suburban white graduates than she does tooMexicanpete said:...
Have you considered the Women's vote, have you considered Kamala 's ethnicity and that Trump is going to appear utterly bonkers when debating Kamala.There might also be a sympathy vote for the Dems in respect of Biden's capitulation. Don't forget "Crooked Joe" ( and only Trump believes he is crooked) has gone for the good of country and party, and although Trump now believes he is probably Jesus having survived an assassination attempt, he is not.HYUFD said:
Trump gets a look in if that is the case certainly, in fact he is odds on to return to the White House against HarrisDavidL said:
He's endorsed Harris now. I just don't see how anyone else gets a look in at this point.williamglenn said:
The failure to endorse Harris shows that Pelosi has got her way on a contested convention, so that's moot.Nigelb said:
“I will speak to the nation later this week.”Pulpstar said:No stepping down from POTUS, no endorsement of Harris. "Over to you Pelosi you sort this shitshow out "
The VP market is very interesting.
Is Shapiro really a shoe in ?
You may be right of course, but I don't believe you have considered anything other than hypothetical polling and made some bizarre extrapolation from Nixon/ McGovern.
Bizarrely Trump retains a decent base plus a big number of independents. I am not sure he is as popular as you claim or Kamala is as reviled as you suggest.
It’s the 10% left, especially in the swing states.3 -
Kamala at least looks like she can do the job for 4 years.
She stands in great contrast to Trump. She can articulate the choice so much better than Biden can. Whether it’s enough, it’s difficult to say at this stage. But she will run a much more vital and effective campaign than Biden would ever manage now, and for that reason alone the Democrats are at least back in the game.
I agree she should choose someone like Shapiro for VP.3 -
You do know she was an aggressive prosecutor, right?HYUFD said:
Trump has charisma, Harris does not.Foxy said:
Yes, but the contrast of being young and articulate vs dozy Donald will draw sharp attention to Trump also being too old and mentally unfit.HYUFD said:
John Kerry was also a prosecutor, fat lot of good it did him against Bush!WillG said:
Harris is a prosecutor that represents law and order against the convicted criminal leading the Republicans.HYUFD said:Game, set and match Trump if the Democrats endorse Harris after Biden's withdrawal and follow his mistaken recommendation.
Harris would lose all the rustbelt swing states Biden won in 2020 and probably lead the Democrats to their worst defeat in the Electoral College since Dukakis as well as losing the popular vote.
Newsom would be just as bad, Democrats only hope now a rustbelt governor like Shapiro or Buttigieg
It will send Trump wild to lose to a black female.
Harris is the candidate of Hollywood, Silicon Valley and liberal lawyers as Hillary was, not the manufacturers and farmers and small business people Trump is (even Biden had more appeal to them as he showed in 2020)1 -
Ossof. Hmm. interesting. Brings Georgia into the play.another_richard said:
I have Ossoff £4 @ 112.28 but you can currently get him at 200:rcs1000 said:
I would add Ossoff to the list.WillG said:Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and Pete Buttigieg would have to be the best VP picks.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190716127
Whereas Newsome is 20, Harris is 22, Michelle is 25 and Clinton is 40 if you want to waste money.
I like.
0 -
Don't let it worry you Big_G, we all know you didn't mean it that way.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you took that comment personally I would like to apologise as I have no intention to offend anyone over the distressing nature of dementia and those loved ones who have witnessed it first hand in all its emotional elementsChris said:
Please just don't say to other people "you do not know ..." Most of us do.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course I don't but I have seen my father in law die in our home with our family holding his hands and him not knowing any of us, a neighbour who should not be driving become violent towards her son when he took her car keys away, and another long standing widow and friend deny all access to her home for days hiding away frightened and in denialChris said:
You seem to think you're the only person here with experience of dementia. Absurd.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Again you do not know just how stubborn Biden himself wasChris said:
It was hardly kind to put him through the last few months, let alone to run the risk of putting him through the remainder of the campaign up to polling day. And that's just considering the effect on Biden himself. There is quite a lot at stake in this election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would just caution that in my experience of dementia it is not as simple as telling someone with the condition to change courseAndy_JS said:The people who did everything they could to keep Biden in the race beyond the time it was sensible to do so should feel ashamed of themselves.
There can be anger and dismay, even denial from the patient, and key is the actions of the family and those family members closest which I hope in this case proves to be Jill Biden who without doubt would have had a difficult and highly emotional task
I have many other examples but when you are 80+ and your wife is 84 dementia is something you become very aware of
I suspect we've all had experience of loved ones with dementia, which I am sure you understand.1 -
She polls better than Biden with black voters in swing states, albeit not so well as Obama.turbotubbs said:
My Texan students suggested that her role a# a prosecutor, prosecuting black people as a person of colour does not enhance her reputation among black voters.kle4 said:
What's so bad about Kamala? The worst accsuation I can recall against her is essentially being a bit crap, which as far as some of the choices go could be a lot worse even though it is not exactly inspirting.Taz said:Kamala v Trump.
Not a great choice0 -
The thing with picking Andy Beshear is he might end up looking better than Harris! With questions of why he isn't the nominee?0
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3
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I think there's is a very good chance he is the VP pickrottenborough said:
Ossof. Hmm. interesting. Brings Georgia into the play.another_richard said:
I have Ossoff £4 @ 112.28 but you can currently get him at 200:rcs1000 said:
I would add Ossoff to the list.WillG said:Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and Pete Buttigieg would have to be the best VP picks.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190716127
Whereas Newsome is 20, Harris is 22, Michelle is 25 and Clinton is 40 if you want to waste money.
I like.0 -
All time record:rcs1000 said:I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.
@bigjohnowls and Starmer
@Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
@rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
@HYUFD and Kamala Harris
tim and George Osborne
Incredibly it must be about ten years since tim left.1 -
I recall something about her prosecution record coming up when she ran for the job in 2020, though perhaps more on the line that she was too tough for the more wokish liberals, as would be expected from a prosecutor.turbotubbs said:
My Texan students suggested that her role a# a prosecutor, prosecuting black people as a person of colour does not enhance her reputation among black voters.kle4 said:
What's so bad about Kamala? The worst accsuation I can recall against her is essentially being a bit crap, which as far as some of the choices go could be a lot worse even though it is not exactly inspirting.Taz said:Kamala v Trump.
Not a great choice0 -
You missed out 'criminal'Nigelb said:
He is now the oldest nominee in US history.TheScreamingEagles said:The absolute banter outcome now is for the Dems to run on Trump’s age and mental capacity to do the job.
https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815089099050799595
The geriatric buffoon.0 -
My guess is Trump drifts to about a 50-55% chance soon-ish, maybe around 1.9 on Betfair, and then Kamala shortens.numbertwelve said:Kamala at least looks like she can do the job for 4 years.
She stands in great contrast to Trump. She can articulate the choice so much better than Biden can. Whether it’s enough, it’s difficult to say at this stage. But she will run a much more vital and effective campaign than Biden would ever manage now, and for that reason alone the Democrats are at least back in the game.
I agree she should choose someone like Shapiro for VP.
That will be the time to top up on Trump.1 -
Leon predicted this first I believe. Right again.0
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0
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Maybe you ought to apologise for insisting he has dementia one minute and and then saying he is responsible for the Trump shooting the next. You have no evidence for eitherLeon said:Can all the PB….
“Its just a stammer”
….guys not take a second to step back and say, even if only for a moment? -
OK I GOT THAT HORRIBLY WRONG
Thanks. Asking for all the sane people on PB1 -
The vast majority of black Americans are not college educated and don't have much truck with progressive identity politics groups. Generally they think there is too much crime in their neighborhoods and quite like them being put behind bars.turbotubbs said:
My Texan students suggested that her role a# a prosecutor, prosecuting black people as a person of colour does not enhance her reputation among black voters.kle4 said:
What's so bad about Kamala? The worst accsuation I can recall against her is essentially being a bit crap, which as far as some of the choices go could be a lot worse even though it is not exactly inspirting.Taz said:Kamala v Trump.
Not a great choice1 -
You are being very silly this evening!williamglenn said:Striking that no other big names seem to have said anything in support of Harris yet.
0 -
You've missed me out re Gordon BrownBenpointer said:
@Leon and Liz Trussrcs1000 said:I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.
@bigjohnowls and Starmer
@Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
@rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
@HYUFD and Kamala Harris
0 -
-
Anabobazina And cash ?rcs1000 said:I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.
@bigjohnowls and Starmer
@Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
@rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
@HYUFD and Kamala Harris7 -
Convicted criminal, conspiracy theorist, rapist, fraudster, insurrectionist.Roger said:
You missed out 'criminal'Nigelb said:
He is now the oldest nominee in US history.TheScreamingEagles said:The absolute banter outcome now is for the Dems to run on Trump’s age and mental capacity to do the job.
https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815089099050799595
The geriatric buffoon.1 -
Because you were trolling, and that's what the button is for.Mexicanpete said:Can I ask Casino why he has given me a "troll" for a perfectly reasonable comment on the last thread? TSE has mentioned before that the troll button is not simply an opportunity to dismiss posts one disagrees with.
Parents paying for independent schools are already making the sacrifices you describe, including ourselves, and your bunch of charlatans turning the thumbscrews will force them out entirely.0 -
He predicted Biden was passed it. Not sure about Harris.Andy_JS said:Leon predicted this first I believe. Right again.
0 -
I do and it can be very cruel to watch a loved one deteriorate with dementia and the feeling of utter helplessnessBenpointer said:
Don't let it worry you Big_G, we all know you didn't mean it that way.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If you took that comment personally I would like to apologise as I have no intention to offend anyone over the distressing nature of dementia and those loved ones who have witnessed it first hand in all its emotional elementsChris said:
Please just don't say to other people "you do not know ..." Most of us do.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Of course I don't but I have seen my father in law die in our home with our family holding his hands and him not knowing any of us, a neighbour who should not be driving become violent towards her son when he took her car keys away, and another long standing widow and friend deny all access to her home for days hiding away frightened and in denialChris said:
You seem to think you're the only person here with experience of dementia. Absurd.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Again you do not know just how stubborn Biden himself wasChris said:
It was hardly kind to put him through the last few months, let alone to run the risk of putting him through the remainder of the campaign up to polling day. And that's just considering the effect on Biden himself. There is quite a lot at stake in this election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would just caution that in my experience of dementia it is not as simple as telling someone with the condition to change courseAndy_JS said:The people who did everything they could to keep Biden in the race beyond the time it was sensible to do so should feel ashamed of themselves.
There can be anger and dismay, even denial from the patient, and key is the actions of the family and those family members closest which I hope in this case proves to be Jill Biden who without doubt would have had a difficult and highly emotional task
I have many other examples but when you are 80+ and your wife is 84 dementia is something you become very aware of
I suspect we've all had experience of loved ones with dementia, which I am sure you understand.0 -
She was a prosecutor . It’s hardly a shock that she’d end up prosecuting some black people.turbotubbs said:
My Texan students suggested that her role a# a prosecutor, prosecuting black people as a person of colour does not enhance her reputation among black voters.kle4 said:
What's so bad about Kamala? The worst accsuation I can recall against her is essentially being a bit crap, which as far as some of the choices go could be a lot worse even though it is not exactly inspirting.Taz said:Kamala v Trump.
Not a great choice0 -
Lol yes, I read RCS's post the wrong way round, doh!Casino_Royale said:
@TheBritishElectorate and Liz TrussBenpointer said:
@Leon and Liz Trussrcs1000 said:I am going to create a list of PB's best irrationally over the top hatreds.
@bigjohnowls and Starmer
@Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
@rcs1000 and Zac Goldsmith
@HYUFD and Kamala Harris0 -
I reckon Trump may struggle with Kamala. He'll probably avoid playing the race card, but he'll be too tempted to reach for lazy misogynist tropes to use against her, which may well backfire.3
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Trump is lying through his teeth when he says he prefers to face Harris compared to Biden.1
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Message him directly, he may not see this ?Mexicanpete said:Can I ask Casino why he has given me a "troll" for a perfectly reasonable comment on the last thread? TSE has mentioned before that the troll button is not simply an opportunity to dismiss posts one disagrees with.
1 -
https://apnews.com/article/biden-harris-election-2024-democrats-withdrawal-trump-c8b82fa105953e8f485c769580f7da49
Under Democratic Party rules, Biden cannot transfer his pledged delegates to another candidate. With Biden stepping aside, Democrats will start with an open convention.2 -
Good to see there's a presedential candidate you can fully get behind as being both mentally soundly for the job and hasn't discussed becoming a dictator for a 'temporary' period.
I hope that, like France, enough Americans pull together to reject extremism, which is more severe in Trump's GOP than Le Pen's party.
Unite behind Harris and take the attack to Trump.1
