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Biden withdraws from the 2024 White House race – politicalbetting.com

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  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    Omnium said:

    viewcode said:

    JESUS EFFING FLIP! I GO AWAY FOR A FEW HOURS (I did some DIY. It's a bit wobbly) AND THIS BLOODY HAPPENS. IT'S YOUR FAULT PB! BAD YOU!

    :smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile:

    It's TSE.

    He's been behind every world crisis since he started editing the Site.
    I am absolutely knackered.

    A public service announcement.

    I am taking a holiday from the 16th of August through to the 26th of August.
    Is Clacton what it was though?
    Actually I am going to Trump's hotel in Scotland for the first part of the August holiday.
    I'm sure it'll be great, and I hope you have a great break. I'm sure you'll find reasons to not choose Trump in the future though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited July 21

    Kamala surely odds on to win the election now.

    Not at all, Trump currently leads Harris by 5%, 44% to 38.5% on average with Kennedy on 10.5%, Stein on 2% and West on 1.5%.

    If repeated in November that would be the lowest Democratic voteshare in a general election since McGovern's 37.5% in 1972 when Nixon crushed him by a landslide. Trump would win the popular vote and the biggest GOP victory margin since Bush 41 over Dukakis in 1988
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_harris_vs_kennedy_vs_stein_vs_west-8510.html
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,172
    The people who did everything they could to keep Biden in the race beyond the time it was sensible to do so should feel ashamed of themselves.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    This is of course a risk . But another Biden debate disaster could have been catastrophic for the Dems .

    Much closer to the election there would have been no chance to change the nominee and early voting starts only a few weeks later.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No stepping down from POTUS, no endorsement of Harris. "Over to you Pelosi you sort this shitshow out "

    “I will speak to the nation later this week.”

    The VP market is very interesting.
    Is Shapiro really a shoe in ?
    The failure to endorse Harris shows that Pelosi has got her way on a contested convention, so that's moot.
    He's endorsed Harris now. I just don't see how anyone else gets a look in at this point.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    Looks like they are trying to get Harris in asap. Not sure this is wise, but probably the only option
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    Well that's my UK GE profits wiped out, and a little bit more.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,576

    Omnium said:

    viewcode said:

    JESUS EFFING FLIP! I GO AWAY FOR A FEW HOURS (I did some DIY. It's a bit wobbly) AND THIS BLOODY HAPPENS. IT'S YOUR FAULT PB! BAD YOU!

    :smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile:

    It's TSE.

    He's been behind every world crisis since he started editing the Site.
    I am absolutely knackered.

    A public service announcement.

    I am taking a holiday from the 16th of August through to the 26th of August.
    Is Clacton what it was though?
    Actually I am going to Trump's hotel in Scotland for the first part of the August holiday.
    You are more likely to find Nige in Trump's flophouse than in Clacton.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    viewcode said:

    JESUS EFFING FLIP! I GO AWAY FOR A FEW HOURS (I did some DIY. It's a bit wobbly) AND THIS BLOODY HAPPENS. IT'S YOUR FAULT PB! BAD YOU!

    :smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile:

    It's TSE.

    He's been behind every world crisis since he started editing the Site.
    I am absolutely knackered.

    A public service announcement.

    I am taking a holiday from the 16th of August through to the 26th of August.

    Edit also a holiday from the 25th of September through to 6th of October.
    Thanks TSE. I will liquidate my share portfolio accordingly.
    I've not quite caught up on this yet. Are @TSE's holidays really as scary as Mike's used to be?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Stereodog said:

    I think this is the right decision but it makes me feel unaccountably sad. I think Biden is an enormously decent man and his presidency has been a great success. when he was campaigning in 2020 I was always impressed by his decency and empathy. It's sad it has to end like this.

    If the Dems do win the White House in November then Biden will go down as one of the truly great Presidents.

    Defeated Trump then stood aside to help defeat Trump.
    Very reminiscent of George Washington stepping down to allow the republic to thrive.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962
    Whisper it: I don't think Kamala is that good at debates. And it's far from certain she would beat trump in one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    carnforth said:

    Well that's my UK GE profits wiped out, and a little bit more.

    Sorry to hear that mate.

    I fucked up this market too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Updated the thread header with this.

    My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.

    https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1815087772216303933

    In theory, that means all the Biden delegates go to Kamala and she walks to the nomination.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    geoffw said:

    They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance

    I like Buttigieg but I think Harris should pick someone currently holding office in a Red State .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,172
    viewcode said:

    JESUS EFFING FLIP! I GO AWAY FOR A FEW HOURS (I did some DIY. It's a bit wobbly) AND THIS BLOODY HAPPENS. IT'S YOUR FAULT PB! BAD YOU!

    :smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile:

    You're talking about England's performance at Trent Bridge I assume.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    Updated the thread header with this.

    My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.

    https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1815087772216303933

    In theory, that means all the Biden delegates go to Kamala and she walks to the nomination.
    Buffs nails.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and Pete Buttigieg would have to be the best VP picks.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,898
    geoffw said:

    They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance

    Josh Shapiro would help the Dems win Pennsylvania.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Andy_JS said:

    The people who did everything they could to keep Biden in the race beyond the time it was sensible to do so should feel ashamed of themselves.

    This was clear a year ago.

    But, if he'd kept it together another 4 months he'd have made it.

    He fucked up the debate and its aftermath. Noone else.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    JESUS EFFING FLIP! I GO AWAY FOR A FEW HOURS (I did some DIY. It's a bit wobbly) AND THIS BLOODY HAPPENS. IT'S YOUR FAULT PB! BAD YOU!

    :smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile:

    It's TSE.

    He's been behind every world crisis since he started editing the Site.
    I am absolutely knackered.

    A public service announcement.

    I am taking a holiday from the 16th of August through to the 26th of August.

    Edit also a holiday from the 25th of September through to 6th of October.
    Thanks TSE. I will liquidate my share portfolio accordingly.
    I've not quite caught up on this yet. Are @TSE's holidays really as scary as Mike's used to be?
    We're going to find out in the next few weeks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    geoffw said:

    They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance

    Exactly, he is articulate and from a Midwest state and has some charisma.

    Harris has the elitist air of liberal coastal entitlement Hillary had, with the charisma of Kerry and the ideology of Dukakis, Trump would love to run against a limousine liberal like her in the rustbelt where she has about as much connection with the white working class as you would expect a former California lawyer to have
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    HYUFD said:

    Kamala surely odds on to win the election now.

    Not at all, Trump currently leads Harris by 5%, 44% to 38.5% on average with Kennedy on 10.5%, Stein on 2% and West on 1.5%.
    You'd be wiser to stop pretending you know the future for just a short time, until we've seen some polls based on something stronger than sheer hypotheticals.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No stepping down from POTUS, no endorsement of Harris. "Over to you Pelosi you sort this shitshow out "

    “I will speak to the nation later this week.”

    The VP market is very interesting.
    Is Shapiro really a shoe in ?
    The failure to endorse Harris shows that Pelosi has got her way on a contested convention, so that's moot.
    He's endorsed Harris now. I just don't see how anyone else gets a look in at this point.
    Trump gets a look in if that is the case certainly, in fact he is odds on to return to the White House against Harris
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    Obvs Biden doesn’t know how to tweet. Bit strange that the endorsement of Kamala came on Twitter some time after rather than in formal letter he releases.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Nunu5 said:

    Whisper it: I don't think Kamala is that good at debates. And it's far from certain she would beat trump in one.

    She's a lawyer, she's an excellent debater.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    viewcode said:

    JESUS EFFING FLIP! I GO AWAY FOR A FEW HOURS (I did some DIY. It's a bit wobbly) AND THIS BLOODY HAPPENS. IT'S YOUR FAULT PB! BAD YOU!

    :smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile:

    It's TSE.

    He's been behind every world crisis since he started editing the Site.
    I am absolutely knackered.

    A public service announcement.

    I am taking a holiday from the 16th of August through to the 26th of August.

    Edit also a holiday from the 25th of September through to 6th of October.
    Thanks TSE. I will liquidate my share portfolio accordingly.
    Liquidate your share portfolio?

    Lock down in the New Zealand bunker, with gold, canned goods and firearms more like…
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    edited July 21
    Nunu5 said:

    Whisper it: I don't think Kamala is that good at debates. And it's far from certain she would beat trump in one.

    She won’t just stand there like a pinata taking hit after hit . She was perfectly fine in 2020 against Pence .
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    The logic must be that trying to sew this up for Harris ASAP and avoid any further blue on blue is better than trying to get a better nominee in a contested convention.

    If he wanted to give Harris the best shot he would have stood down as President, but that would involve admitting he is too old for the job, whereas now he can at least blame his withdrawal on having lost confidence of party/media, and continue denying the idea of him having dementia or the Dems covering it up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    WillG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Game, set and match Trump if the Democrats endorse Harris after Biden's withdrawal and follow his mistaken recommendation.

    Harris would lose all the rustbelt swing states Biden won in 2020 and probably lead the Democrats to their worst defeat in the Electoral College since Dukakis as well as losing the popular vote.

    Newsom would be just as bad, Democrats only hope now a rustbelt governor like Shapiro or Buttigieg

    Harris is a prosecutor that represents law and order against the convicted criminal leading the Republicans.
    John Kerry was also a prosecutor, fat lot of good it did him against Bush!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    Heathener said:

    This is the best election ever

    One candidate has been shot and the other has pulled out before it's even started

    There's surely huge intrigue and interest to come

    The Dem nomination for starters..

    Imagine, for a moment, if neither Trump nor Biden had made it to the vote. We were within six inches.

    Just a reminder too that Trump is no spring chicken. Trump will be older than Biden is now by the end of term in January 2029

    If the Dems are sensible they might well show up his age to their advantage.

    But are they sensible?
    Six millimeters more like

    You're forgetting the six inches of solid bone between his ear and his brain.
    Trump wishes he had six inches of solid bone.
    Don't think Melania is fussed one way or the other, that ship seems to have sailed.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    JESUS EFFING FLIP! I GO AWAY FOR A FEW HOURS (I did some DIY. It's a bit wobbly) AND THIS BLOODY HAPPENS. IT'S YOUR FAULT PB! BAD YOU!

    :smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile::smile:

    It's TSE.

    He's been behind every world crisis since he started editing the Site.
    I am absolutely knackered.

    A public service announcement.

    I am taking a holiday from the 16th of August through to the 26th of August.

    Edit also a holiday from the 25th of September through to 6th of October.
    Thanks TSE. I will liquidate my share portfolio accordingly.
    I've not quite caught up on this yet. Are @TSE's holidays really as scary as Mike's used to be?
    Other way round - you buy when he departs and sell on his return.

    Haven't you noticed how volatile politics have become since he started standing in for Mike?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Andy_JS said:

    The people who did everything they could to keep Biden in the race beyond the time it was sensible to do so should feel ashamed of themselves.

    I would just caution that in my experience of dementia it is not as simple as telling someone with the condition to change course

    There can be anger and dismay, even denial from the patient, and key is the actions of the family and those family members closest which I hope in this case proves to be Jill Biden who without doubt would have had a difficult and highly emotional task
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    nico679 said:

    geoffw said:

    They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance

    I like Buttigieg but I think Harris should pick someone currently holding office in a Red State .
    I meant Buttigieg or similar as the presidential candidate. Harris should be off the ticket

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488

    carnforth said:

    Well that's my UK GE profits wiped out, and a little bit more.

    Sorry to hear that mate.

    I fucked up this market too.
    It's alright. Small numbers!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No stepping down from POTUS, no endorsement of Harris. "Over to you Pelosi you sort this shitshow out "

    “I will speak to the nation later this week.”

    The VP market is very interesting.
    Is Shapiro really a shoe in ?
    The failure to endorse Harris shows that Pelosi has got her way on a contested convention, so that's moot.
    He's endorsed Harris now. I just don't see how anyone else gets a look in at this point.
    Trump gets a look in if that is the case certainly, in fact he is odds on to return to the White House against Harris
    And yet he is now clearly the worst of the choices. There is nothing to recommend Trump.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    edited July 21
    Well, I'm delighted that Biden has endorsed Kamala. What the Dems need to do is quickly line up behind her - starting with pubic backing from Mr and Mrs Obama, Pelosi, the potential VP candidates, and other Dem bigwigs.

    If Trump is to be defeated, I reckon it's pretty important that the Dems show complete unity behind one candidate as from now, and that's got to be Harris. They haven't got the time to mess about with any contest.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    VP pick will be crucial. Need a rust belt friendly white male. Shapiro, I’d suggest.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Stereodog said:

    I think this is the right decision but it makes me feel unaccountably sad. I think Biden is an enormously decent man and his presidency has been a great success. when he was campaigning in 2020 I was always impressed by his decency and empathy. It's sad it has to end like this.

    If the Dems do win the White House in November then Biden will go down as one of the truly great Presidents.

    Defeated Trump then stood aside to help defeat Trump.
    This. 1000x this.

    He will be liberal hero for the ages if standing down allows Dems to beat Trump 2.0.

    Although personally I will be as rich as croesus if Vance somehow becomes nominee.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Scott_xP said:

    @lucyprebblish

    What if Biden keeps forgetting he’s agreed to step down

    Perhaps possible, that Joe Biden will not withdraw from 2024 POTUS race, until AFTER Bibi Netanyahu addresses joint session of Congress on Wednesday.
    Biden's exit is becoming the fusion power generation of politics - always just around the corner.
    I think I can fairly take the credit for this.
    Grrr, you will be on the naughty step if we end up Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, or Gavin Newsom as the Dem nominee or President next January.
    None of those - Whitmer Harris, I reckon.

    (Clinton lol!)
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance

    Exactly, he is articulate and from a Midwest state and has some charisma.

    Harris has the elitist air of liberal coastal entitlement Hillary had, with the charisma of Kerry and the ideology of Dukakis, Trump would love to run against a limousine liberal like her in the rustbelt where she has about as much connection with the white working class as you would expect a former California lawyer to have
    She was born to an immigrant mother and a black American father before blacks got civil rights. Her politics are in the middle of the Democratic party and she was tough on crime. You are just projecting sexism and racism on to her politics.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    WillG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Game, set and match Trump if the Democrats endorse Harris after Biden's withdrawal and follow his mistaken recommendation.

    Harris would lose all the rustbelt swing states Biden won in 2020 and probably lead the Democrats to their worst defeat in the Electoral College since Dukakis as well as losing the popular vote.

    Newsom would be just as bad, Democrats only hope now a rustbelt governor like Shapiro or Buttigieg

    Harris is a prosecutor that represents law and order against the convicted criminal leading the Republicans.
    That's the old days. These days the Republicans quite like lawbreakers
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200

    The logic must be that trying to sew this up for Harris ASAP and avoid any further blue on blue is better than trying to get a better nominee in a contested convention.

    If he wanted to give Harris the best shot he would have stood down as President, but that would involve admitting he is too old for the job, whereas now he can at least blame his withdrawal on having lost confidence of party/media, and continue denying the idea of him having dementia or the Dems covering it up.

    I think Harris stands a better chance of winning as the current VP rather than President . The first woman President might help and she will eviscerate Trump on the abortion issue .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No stepping down from POTUS, no endorsement of Harris. "Over to you Pelosi you sort this shitshow out "

    “I will speak to the nation later this week.”

    The VP market is very interesting.
    Is Shapiro really a shoe in ?
    The failure to endorse Harris shows that Pelosi has got her way on a contested convention, so that's moot.
    He's endorsed Harris now. I just don't see how anyone else gets a look in at this point.
    Trump gets a look in if that is the case certainly, in fact he is odds on to return to the White House against Harris
    thing
    It will be interesting to see if that changes over the next couple of days. One thing is for sure, the Democrats are going to have the younger, spritelier candidate. Trump is not wearing well either, that nomination speech was awful, but so far he has had the shelter of Biden's health issues overriding his. That is about to change.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Andy_JS said:

    The people who did everything they could to keep Biden in the race beyond the time it was sensible to do so should feel ashamed of themselves.

    I would just caution that in my experience of dementia it is not as simple as telling someone with the condition to change course

    There can be anger and dismay, even denial from the patient, and key is the actions of the family and those family members closest which I hope in this case proves to be Jill Biden who without doubt would have had a difficult and highly emotional task
    It was hardly kind to put him through the last few months, let alone to run the risk of putting him through the remainder of the campaign up to polling day. And that's just considering the effect on Biden himself. There is quite a lot at stake in this election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    HYUFD said:

    Game, set and match Trump if the Democrats endorse Harris after Biden's withdrawal and follow his mistaken recommendation.

    Harris would lose all the rustbelt swing states Biden won in 2020 and probably lead the Democrats to their worst defeat in the Electoral College since Dukakis as well as losing the popular vote.

    Newsom would be just as bad, Democrats only hope now a rustbelt governor like Shapiro or Buttigieg

    You cannot possibly know that at this stage and are just 'wish' casting
    @Big_G_NorthWales vs @HYUFD . It's just like old times... :)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,172
    Useless fact: at Trent Bridge yesterday I saw a group of about 5 men wearing bandages on their right ear.

    Make of that what you will.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance

    Exactly, he is articulate and from a Midwest state and has some charisma.

    Harris has the elitist air of liberal coastal entitlement Hillary had, with the charisma of Kerry and the ideology of Dukakis, Trump would love to run against a limousine liberal like her in the rustbelt where she has about as much connection with the white working class as you would expect a former California lawyer to have
    Agreed that she is not the candidate they would ever pick if starting from square one, but I think you overstate the case. Hillary had decades in the public eye as a GOP hate figure. Harris is mostly an unknown. She’s made very little mark as VP positive or negative, which means there is room to improve at least.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Well, it's a sh*tshow.

    But I could see no way for Biden electorally except downwards; every tic or minor mistake he made would become a massive story worldwide.

    Now there is at least a chance of moving upwards, even if it is remote.

    And there is a difference between polling between hypotheticals, and polling between actual candidates.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    viewcode said:

    WillG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Game, set and match Trump if the Democrats endorse Harris after Biden's withdrawal and follow his mistaken recommendation.

    Harris would lose all the rustbelt swing states Biden won in 2020 and probably lead the Democrats to their worst defeat in the Electoral College since Dukakis as well as losing the popular vote.

    Newsom would be just as bad, Democrats only hope now a rustbelt governor like Shapiro or Buttigieg

    Harris is a prosecutor that represents law and order against the convicted criminal leading the Republicans.
    That's the old days. These days the Republicans quite like lawbreakers
    Yes, but middle ground voters don't. The Republicans these days are like European fascists of the 1920s, full of disdain for democracy and fetishization of violence.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    geoffw said:

    nico679 said:

    geoffw said:

    They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance

    I like Buttigieg but I think Harris should pick someone currently holding office in a Red State .
    I meant Buttigieg or similar as the presidential candidate. Harris should be off the ticket

    Harris-Buttigieg would be hilarious for sticking it to the Trump etho-nationalist church lovers!!!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: at Trent Bridge yesterday I saw a group of about 5 men wearing bandages on their right ear.

    Make of that what you will.

    Good boundary batting?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,172
    Phil said:

    Biden has endorsed Kamala Harris according to The Guardian.

    Biden’s Twitter:

    https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1815087772216303933

    He was always going to endorse her imo.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Nunu5 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No stepping down from POTUS, no endorsement of Harris. "Over to you Pelosi you sort this shitshow out "

    “I will speak to the nation later this week.”

    The VP market is very interesting.
    Is Shapiro really a shoe in ?
    No he isn't. He's quite to the right on abortion compared to the Dem base
    Buttigieg is (rightly, IMO) second favourite all of a sudden.

    I’d love to se him debate Vance. Polite evisceration.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412
    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance

    Exactly, he is articulate and from a Midwest state and has some charisma.

    Harris has the elitist air of liberal coastal entitlement Hillary had, with the charisma of Kerry and the ideology of Dukakis, Trump would love to run against a limousine liberal like her in the rustbelt where she has about as much connection with the white working class as you would expect a former California lawyer to have
    Wait a minute, so you are saying that she cannot connect with the rust belt because she has no connection with the white working class but New York billionaire property mogul who lived a gilded life, clubbing with celebs, never lifted a finger in hard graft is down with the blue collars?

    Whilst I think he actually does have it down with them, like Boris and Farage with people from a different background it does presume that she doesn’t win over other key groups that compensate for this. Let’s see how things go when she has the push from the Dems and the liberal media in the US.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962

    VP pick will be crucial. Need a rust belt friendly white male. Shapiro, I’d suggest.

    He's too right wing an abortion. The base would hate it. Maybe it doesn't matter if he's the VP.......but em, sometimes it does......
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    ... starting with pubic backing from Mr and Mrs Obama, Pelosi, the potential VP candidates, and other Dem bigwigs. ...

    Let's not get carried away.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,172
    Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Game, set and match Trump if the Democrats endorse Harris after Biden's withdrawal and follow his mistaken recommendation.

    Harris would lose all the rustbelt swing states Biden won in 2020 and probably lead the Democrats to their worst defeat in the Electoral College since Dukakis as well as losing the popular vote.

    Newsom would be just as bad, Democrats only hope now a rustbelt governor like Shapiro or Buttigieg

    I think you're making too many assumptions too quickly.
    No, he’s been very consistent in his absurd predictions.
  • Bloody hell.

    Americans, eh?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

    They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance

    Exactly, he is articulate and from a Midwest state and has some charisma.

    Harris has the elitist air of liberal coastal entitlement Hillary had, with the charisma of Kerry and the ideology of Dukakis, Trump would love to run against a limousine liberal like her in the rustbelt where she has about as much connection with the white working class as you would expect a former California lawyer to have
    You've really got it in for Kamala, haven't you? Every day you repeatedly slag her off. Is there something we should know?

    Did she refuse to dance with you at the Epping Tory ball or something?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Chris said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The people who did everything they could to keep Biden in the race beyond the time it was sensible to do so should feel ashamed of themselves.

    I would just caution that in my experience of dementia it is not as simple as telling someone with the condition to change course

    There can be anger and dismay, even denial from the patient, and key is the actions of the family and those family members closest which I hope in this case proves to be Jill Biden who without doubt would have had a difficult and highly emotional task
    It was hardly kind to put him through the last few months, let alone to run the risk of putting him through the remainder of the campaign up to polling day. And that's just considering the effect on Biden himself. There is quite a lot at stake in this election.
    Again you do not know just how stubborn Biden himself was

    I have seen evidence in the last 12 months of two elderly widows with dementia refusing all attempts to help them and in one case locking herself in her home for days before social services and the family had to act to protect her

    Of course there is the personal level and national level but the personal level has to be resolved first as in this case
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    I feel like I should finally start political betting, because it seemed obvious to me many many months ago that he’d stand down in between the primaries and convention.

    Anyway who’s the Hesletine to stalk the Harris horse? Does anyone fancy going against the Don? One wonders whether Harris threatened the 25th unless he endorsed her. Or has everyone else looked at it and thought, meh… you can lose to him.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Andy_JS said:

    Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.

    Biden should stay in office just to draw fire on this.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    ...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,172
    Full quote from Johnson.

    https://x.com/SpeakerJohnson/status/1815093011669516433

    "Speaker Mike Johnson
    @SpeakerJohnson

    At this unprecedented juncture in American history, we must be clear about what just happened. The Democrat Party forced the Democrat nominee off the ballot, just over 100 days before the election.

    Having invalidated the votes of more than 14 million Americans who selected Joe Biden to be the Democrat nominee for president, the self-proclaimed ‘party of democracy’ has proven exactly the opposite.

    The party’s prospects are no better now with Vice President Kamala Harris, who co-owns the disastrous policy failures of the Biden Administration. As second in command and a completely inept border czar, Harris has been a gleeful accomplice — not only in the destruction of American sovereignty, security, and prosperity, but also in the largest political coverup in U.S. history. She has known for as long as anyone of his incapacity to serve.

    Regardless of the chaos in the current White House, our adversaries around the globe should be reminded that the U.S. Congress, the U.S. military, and the American people are fully prepared and committed to defend our interests both at home and abroad.

    If Joe Biden is not fit to run for President, he is not fit to serve as President. He must resign the office immediately. November 5 cannot arrive soon enough."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: at Trent Bridge yesterday I saw a group of about 5 men wearing bandages on their right ear.

    Make of that what you will.

    Jesus, there must be a lot of snipers round there.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Nunu5 said:

    VP pick will be crucial. Need a rust belt friendly white male. Shapiro, I’d suggest.

    He's too right wing an abortion. The base would hate it. Maybe it doesn't matter if he's the VP.......but em, sometimes it does......
    He isn't right wing on abortion.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    Omnium said:

    Trump is so stuffed.

    I sincerely hope so. And if Trump is defeated Biden's decision today may be the most consquential one he has ever taken, and for which he deserves all of our thanks.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Andy_JS said:

    Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.

    If he resigns, Kamala Harris becomes the 47th President of the United States and everybody's book explodes.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    edited July 21
    Chris said:

    ... starting with pubic backing from Mr and Mrs Obama, Pelosi, the potential VP candidates, and other Dem bigwigs. ...

    Let's not get carried away.
    Whoops - too late to edit.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The people who did everything they could to keep Biden in the race beyond the time it was sensible to do so should feel ashamed of themselves.

    I would just caution that in my experience of dementia it is not as simple as telling someone with the condition to change course

    There can be anger and dismay, even denial from the patient, and key is the actions of the family and those family members closest which I hope in this case proves to be Jill Biden who without doubt would have had a difficult and highly emotional task
    It was hardly kind to put him through the last few months, let alone to run the risk of putting him through the remainder of the campaign up to polling day. And that's just considering the effect on Biden himself. There is quite a lot at stake in this election.
    Again you do not know just how stubborn Biden himself was
    You seem to think you're the only person here with experience of dementia. Absurd.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962
    Andy Bashear doesn't strike me as the type of guy to leave an elected position midway through. He seems very traditional in that sense. Could be wrong tho.
    He would be a great pick. Appeals to Dixiecrats. Could help win back a few wwc
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    moonshine said:

    I feel like I should finally start political betting, because it seemed obvious to me many many months ago that he’d stand down in between the primaries and convention.

    Anyway who’s the Hesletine to stalk the Harris horse? Does anyone fancy going against the Don? One wonders whether Harris threatened the 25th unless he endorsed her. Or has everyone else looked at it and thought, meh… you can lose to him.

    I hope (and think) the Dems will get their act together now. Sort out the VP as quick as possible and attack Trump all out. They have the material to work with.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,690
    WillG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.

    Biden should stay in office just to draw fire on this.
    Republicans want Biden out immediately and Harris in, so it would guarantee her as the candidate. It would be extraordinary to me if the Dems fell into the Kamala coronation bear trap. But then again they have been utterly inept in almost every way the last few years so alas perhaps they will.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    WillG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.

    Biden should stay in office just to draw fire on this.
    Staying in office would implicitly signal that Harris isn’t up to the job.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    WillG said:

    Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear and Pete Buttigieg would have to be the best VP picks.

    I think they have to go with only one.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    HYUFD said:

    Kamala surely odds on to win the election now.

    Not at all, Trump currently leads Harris by 5%, 44% to 38.5% on average with Kennedy on 10.5%, Stein on 2% and West on 1.5%.

    If repeated in November that would be the lowest Democratic voteshare in a general election since McGovern's 37.5% in 1972 when Nixon crushed him by a landslide. Trump would win the popular vote and the biggest GOP victory margin since Bush 41 over Dukakis in 1988
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_harris_vs_kennedy_vs_stein_vs_west-8510.html
    The latest 538 polls had Harris polling better than Biden in some polls, with others showing the opposite.

    "Currently" means nothing. Every poll is outdated now. Hypothetical polls are different to real ones.

    What can be reasonably predicted now is that:
    1. Approval of Biden will recover to a degree now, just as the approval ratings of every retiring president improve in their final couple of months after November, provided that they conduct themselves with grace.
    2. Harris's polling will improve by virtue of:
    - her new status as Biden's nominated heir
    - the fact that her candidacy in a hypothetical poll would no longer imply a disloyal challenge to a president running for a second term
    - the newfound unity amongst Democrats, for I doubt if she will face any serious challenge
    - potentially a strong VP pick to join Harris on the ticket
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No stepping down from POTUS, no endorsement of Harris. "Over to you Pelosi you sort this shitshow out "

    “I will speak to the nation later this week.”

    The VP market is very interesting.
    Is Shapiro really a shoe in ?
    The failure to endorse Harris shows that Pelosi has got her way on a contested convention, so that's moot.
    He's endorsed Harris now. I just don't see how anyone else gets a look in at this point.
    Trump gets a look in if that is the case certainly, in fact he is odds on to return to the White House against Harris
    Have you considered the Women's vote, have you considered Kamala 's ethnicity and that Trump is going to appear utterly bonkers when debating Kamala.There might also be a sympathy vote for the Dems in respect of Biden's capitulation. Don't forget "Crooked Joe" ( and only Trump believes he is crooked) has gone for the good of country and party, and although Trump now believes he is probably Jesus having survived an assassination attempt, he is not.

    You may be right of course, but I don't believe you have considered anything other than hypothetical polling and made some bizarre extrapolation from Nixon/ McGovern.
  • AbandonedHopeAbandonedHope Posts: 144
    In an earlier thread (and by earlier I mean last year) I suggested that Harris had been much more ‘present’ in the media and in public. She was tweeting or commenting on matters in a separate capacity, almost as if she was preparing the ground for a run.

    For those talking of a run by Gavin Newsom, I’d suggest you haud your wheesht. Newsom was married to Kimberly Guilfoyle who is, of course, now engaged to Don Jr.

    I’m nit suggesting that she would use here knowledge of the candidate against him buy, nor make any spurious allegations, but hey, you know, shit happens.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    rcs1000 said:

    Updated the thread header with this.

    My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.

    https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1815087772216303933

    In theory, that means all the Biden delegates go to Kamala and she walks to the nomination.
    Buffs nails.
    In theory…
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    I'm in the money!!! Ker-fucking-chin!!!!!

    Also, though I appreciate this is a secondary consideration, the free world has a chance of surviving.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    edited July 21

    WillG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.

    Biden should stay in office just to draw fire on this.
    Staying in office would implicitly signal that Harris isn’t up to the job.
    Also, if the country is used to "President Harris", they might be more likely to vote for her.

    Plus, Biden gets to make a woman president.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,172
    edited July 21
    Can anyone clear up a strange comment Kamala Harris made a couple of days ago? She said "I've never been to Europe" but she definitely has been to Europe on several trips as vice president. So why did she say that? Maybe it was some sort of joke that isn't immediately apparent.

    https://nypost.com/2021/06/08/kamala-harris-dismisses-criticism-for-not-visiting-us-border/

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/kamala-harris-poland-romania/index.html
    https://www.npr.org/2024/02/15/1231464219/kamala-harris-munich-nato-trump
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200

    WillG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.

    Biden should stay in office just to draw fire on this.
    Staying in office would implicitly signal that Harris isn’t up to the job.
    Not at all. It’s better for Harris to be VP going into the election . She’s perfectly capable of handling the Presidency .
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,465
    geoffw said:

    They've got to pick a new face like Buttigieg to stand a chance

    Should have done that 6 months ago - too late now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    WillG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.

    Biden should stay in office just to draw fire on this.
    Staying in office would implicitly signal that Harris isn’t up to the job.
    No it doesn't.

    He could argue he is fine to continue now, but another four years at his ( or Trump's age ) is a stretch.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    WillG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.

    Biden should stay in office just to draw fire on this.
    Staying in office would implicitly signal that Harris isn’t up to the job.
    Would it? Isn't it just finishing off his term?

    Maybe he does go just to give her some level of incumbency bonus/profile.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    edited July 21
    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: at Trent Bridge yesterday I saw a group of about 5 men wearing bandages on their right ear.

    Make of that what you will.

    Were they standing at twat mid off?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    WillG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.

    Biden should stay in office just to draw fire on this.
    Staying in office would implicitly signal that Harris isn’t up to the job.
    Errrr. No. That’s not how American politics works.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    WillG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Speaker of House Mike Johnson: "Biden must resign immediately". BBC News.

    Biden should stay in office just to draw fire on this.
    Staying in office would implicitly signal that Harris isn’t up to the job.
    Don't be dumb.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone clear up a strange comment Kamala Harris made a couple of days ago? She said "I've never been to Europe" but she definitely has been to Europe on several trips as vice president. So why did she say that? Maybe it was some sort of joke that isn't immediately apparent.

    https://nypost.com/2021/06/08/kamala-harris-dismisses-criticism-for-not-visiting-us-border/

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/kamala-harris-poland-romania/index.html
    https://www.npr.org/2024/02/15/1231464219/kamala-harris-munich-nato-trump

    ??? That NY Post story was from 2021; your links are from 2022 and 2024.

    Besides, I think the context of her comment is clear: she says she had not been to Europe in the 76 days mentioned in the question.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662
    edited July 21
    They have to support whomever they chose up to the hilt. It must be a united front against Trump.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,465
    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: at Trent Bridge yesterday I saw a group of about 5 men wearing bandages on their right ear.

    Make of that what you will.

    Perhaps they had been batting in the nets with Mark Wood bowling?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    edited July 21

    Stereodog said:

    I think this is the right decision but it makes me feel unaccountably sad. I think Biden is an enormously decent man and his presidency has been a great success. when he was campaigning in 2020 I was always impressed by his decency and empathy. It's sad it has to end like this.

    If the Dems do win the White House in November then Biden will go down as one of the truly great Presidents.

    Defeated Trump then stood aside to help defeat Trump.
    I really hope so. I hope everyone gets behind Kamala and she can win, because Trump demonstrably does not care about democracy, he has a Supreme Court opinion that Presidents can commit crimes, and he himself is already a convicted criminal.

    But I don't think she can win. I don't get all the negativity about her personally, but that it has been there this whole time cannot entirely be erased now, there's a bit of sexism or racism to overcome, there's a resurgent Trump with a fully united GOP behind him (whilst the Democrats are demoralised and conflicted), at best lukewarm polling which suggests Trump may win outright and lots of State houses and lawmakers explicitly saying they would have ignored the law last time and thrown out results had they been in place then.

    All the best to her though, and Biden eventually did the right thing - I get why he did still run, for a while it looked like he was robust enough to do it again, but in the end he was not.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962
    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone clear up a strange comment Kamala Harris made a couple of days ago? She said "I've never been to Europe" but she definitely has been to Europe on several trips as vice president. So why did she say that? Maybe it was some sort of joke that isn't immediately apparent.

    https://nypost.com/2021/06/08/kamala-harris-dismisses-criticism-for-not-visiting-us-border/

    https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/kamala-harris-poland-romania/index.html
    https://www.npr.org/2024/02/15/1231464219/kamala-harris-munich-nato-trump

    She saying 'yeah I haven't been to the southern border, but there's a ton of places I haven't been, I can't go everywhere". Would of made more sense to mention somewhere she actually hasn't been.
This discussion has been closed.