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Biden withdraws from the 2024 White House race – politicalbetting.com

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  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    Very surprised to see that HYUFD hasn't endorsed Kamala yet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    ALASTAIR CAMPBELL
    @campbellclaret
    Game-changer. Sometimes they are needed. Sad and cruel in many ways that a good man with a good record has to step down under pressure. But it opens the door to a very different sort of campaign in which the focus goes back to the threat to the world that a second Trump term represents.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Trump and Vance can try and run and hide from the abortion issue but the mid terms showed it was a very big deal .

    Vance said he was pro a national abortion ban .

    Harris has been at her best when campaigning on this issue.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    I'll try again: Is Kamala Harris a black woman? No.

    Through her Jamaican father she is approximately one-fourth black. Calling her black is like me claiming to be Danish because one of my grandmothers was from Denmark.

    She's a mixed-race woman, who came out of the scandal-plagued California Democratic Party.

    Was she part of those scandals? Judge for yourself: "In November 2014, state and federal agents raided the CPUC 's offices in a joint investigation of potential criminal activities related to the permanent closure and settlements proceedings of SONGS. Kamala Harris. California's attorney gneral at the time. either killed or stalled the investigation. The CPUC refused to turn oversixty or more emails from Governor Brown's office."
    source: Michael Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never", p. 214.

    She is black enough for George Wallace I expect!

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    The Trump campaign seems to be worried about his Epstein exposure.

    This digitally-altered image of Kamala Harris posing alongside Jeffrey Epstein is being shared in the wake of Joe Biden's endorsement of her as the new Democratic nominee.

    The real image, captured in 2015, shows Harris posing with her husband Douglas Emhoff.

    https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1815143449516990894
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644

    I'll try again: Is Kamala Harris a black woman? No.

    Through her Jamaican father she is approximately one-fourth black. Calling her black is like me claiming to be Danish because one of my grandmothers was from Denmark.

    She's a mixed-race woman, who came out of the scandal-plagued California Democratic Party.

    Was she part of those scandals? Judge for yourself: "In November 2014, state and federal agents raided the CPUC 's offices in a joint investigation of potential criminal activities related to the permanent closure and settlements proceedings of SONGS. Kamala Harris. California's attorney gneral at the time. either killed or stalled the investigation. The CPUC refused to turn oversixty or more emails from Governor Brown's office."
    source: Michael Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never", p. 214.

    You could certainly claim to be Irish or Italian on that basis.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    GOP strategist Terry Sullivan tells @CBSNews that his fellow GOP operatives are “less than enthusiastic”

    “They’re the dog that caught the car”

    https://x.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1815119959879471141
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Dems should try and engineer Whitmer imho, but maybe that is just a step too far after 'talking' their leader into stepping down.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Keiran Pedley
    @keiranpedley
    ·
    3h
    Think I’m the only person who thinks Harris can beat Trump. He’s the clear favourite. She’s…limited.

    But the opportunity is there for Dems to project unity at the convention and run a campaign that’s a referendum on a Trump second term. That’s an argument they can win.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549

    There has been much speculation about why former President Barack Obama did not endorse Kamala Harris in his statement. A person familiar with his thinking says he is following the same policy of neutrality he adopted in the 2020 Democratic primaries and will stand ready to “help unite the party once we have a nominee.”

    NY Times

    So that tells us that this wasn't particularly orchestrated.
    Not necessarily. More likely WAS orchestrated. Only ones hyper-ventilating re: Obama's "refusal" to endorse, are people NOT in the loop by definition.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    I guess Trump will not be doing anymore debates.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    I'd give the VP job to Stormy Daniels. She made him look ridiculous. Failing that I'd put her in charge of publicity
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,828

    There has been much speculation about why former President Barack Obama did not endorse Kamala Harris in his statement. A person familiar with his thinking says he is following the same policy of neutrality he adopted in the 2020 Democratic primaries and will stand ready to “help unite the party once we have a nominee.”

    NY Times

    So that tells us that this wasn't particularly orchestrated.
    Not necessarily. More likely WAS orchestrated. Only ones hyper-ventilating re: Obama's "refusal" to endorse, are people NOT in the loop by definition.
    Same as people immediately pointing out that Biden hadn't endorsed Harris, a minute before he endorsed Harris.

    When it made perfect sense for Biden to bifurcate his resignation and his endorsement as two separate points.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    Keiran Pedley
    @keiranpedley
    ·
    3h
    Think I’m the only person who thinks Harris can beat Trump. He’s the clear favourite. She’s…limited.

    But the opportunity is there for Dems to project unity at the convention and run a campaign that’s a referendum on a Trump second term. That’s an argument they can win.

    Uniting behind a candidate like Harris Trump will easily beat is no unity at and he can beat the wrong Democrat as he showed with Hillary Clinton in 2016
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 543

    I guess Trump will not be doing anymore debates.

    I guess Trump will not be doing anymore debates.

    I guess Trump will not be doing anymore debates.

    Is he frit?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Yashar Ali 🐘
    @yashar
    CNN’s
    @jamiegangel
    says sources close to the Vice-President say these are some of the names being discussed as her running mate:

    Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
    Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
    North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
    Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
  • Foxy said:

    I'll try again: Is Kamala Harris a black woman? No.

    Through her Jamaican father she is approximately one-fourth black. Calling her black is like me claiming to be Danish because one of my grandmothers was from Denmark.

    She's a mixed-race woman, who came out of the scandal-plagued California Democratic Party.

    Was she part of those scandals? Judge for yourself: "In November 2014, state and federal agents raided the CPUC 's offices in a joint investigation of potential criminal activities related to the permanent closure and settlements proceedings of SONGS. Kamala Harris. California's attorney gneral at the time. either killed or stalled the investigation. The CPUC refused to turn oversixty or more emails from Governor Brown's office."
    source: Michael Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never", p. 214.

    She is black enough for George Wallace I expect!

    The South Africans had various tests to apply but we really don't want to go down that road again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    HYUFD said:

    Keiran Pedley
    @keiranpedley
    ·
    3h
    Think I’m the only person who thinks Harris can beat Trump. He’s the clear favourite. She’s…limited.

    But the opportunity is there for Dems to project unity at the convention and run a campaign that’s a referendum on a Trump second term. That’s an argument they can win.

    Uniting behind a candidate like Harris Trump will easily beat is no unity at and he can beat the wrong Democrat as he showed with Hillary Clinton in 2016
    You seem very certain.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Nigelb said:

    Joe Biden is one of the handful of truly great presidents in American history and a patriot beyond measure. We Democrats will be unified and focused behind our next President, Kamala Harris, to keep their great success going and to defeat the autocrats, theocrats and plutocrats.
    https://x.com/jamie_raskin/status/1815117782775951597

    Such fawning won't help.

    He doesn't have the support to win again. No mythologising will help his potential successor.

    And electorally, it shouldn't be Kamela. Newsom stands a chance. She doesn't.
    Newsom won't win either. I think his appeal is too coastal, will be a rerun of the Al Gore campaign in 2000 which as we know didn't win and many of the swing states have trended to the right since then. Newsom will likely run up huge margins in California, Washington, New York and other liberal parts of the nation but lose swing states.
    Why are you right wingers so convinced Trump will walk it?

    You may of course be correct, nonetheless Trump appears to me to be such a flawed candidate anything can happen now Sleepy Joe is out of the picture.
    I'm a right winger, well a One Nation Tory anyway (if that's still allowed), and I'm betting huge on Harris at present. I'm really not sure who will win, but having backed at longer odds I still think she is value so am reluctant to trade out.
    It's allowed, but perhaps not in the Conservative Party :wink: .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276


    Yashar Ali 🐘
    @yashar
    CNN’s
    @jamiegangel
    says sources close to the Vice-President say these are some of the names being discussed as her running mate:

    Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
    Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
    North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
    Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro

    She hasn't even got the nomination yet, note no Buttigieg on her shortlist so even more reason for him to challenge her at the convention
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    edited July 21
    nico679 said:

    Trump and Vance can try and run and hide from the abortion issue but the mid terms showed it was a very big deal .

    Vance said he was pro a national abortion ban .

    Harris has been at her best when campaigning on this issue.

    The uncomfortable fact for GOP-leaning commentators is that Kamala Harris is nowhere near as inarticulate, dumb-sounding or tone-deaf as they have been spending the past 4 years defining her as.

    Now she has centre stage, she must prove them wrong.

    Keiran Pedley
    @keiranpedley
    ·
    3h
    Think I’m the only person who thinks Harris can beat Trump. He’s the clear favourite. She’s…limited.

    But the opportunity is there for Dems to project unity at the convention and run a campaign that’s a referendum on a Trump second term. That’s an argument they can win.

    He’s not the only person by any stretch. There are plenty of commentators who believe it. I have said it before and I will say it again. Trump is eminently beatable. Harris is perfectly capable of beating him.

    Whether she will or not is still very much up in the air and will depend on how she now performs as she moves into the spotlight, events, the campaign and the GOTV operation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    Very surprised to see that HYUFD hasn't endorsed Kamala yet.

    I would vote for Trump over Harris so obviously not
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro endorses Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination.
    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1815148887138861463
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    HYUFD said:


    Yashar Ali 🐘
    @yashar
    CNN’s
    @jamiegangel
    says sources close to the Vice-President say these are some of the names being discussed as her running mate:

    Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
    Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
    North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
    Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro

    She hasn't even got the nomination yet, note no Buttigieg on her shortlist so even more reason for him to challenge her at the convention
    Zero chance of that.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549

    I'll try again: Is Kamala Harris a black woman? No.

    Through her Jamaican father she is approximately one-fourth black. Calling her black is like me claiming to be Danish because one of my grandmothers was from Denmark.

    She's a mixed-race woman, who came out of the scandal-plagued California Democratic Party.

    Was she part of those scandals? Judge for yourself: "In November 2014, state and federal agents raided the CPUC 's offices in a joint investigation of potential criminal activities related to the permanent closure and settlements proceedings of SONGS. Kamala Harris. California's attorney gneral at the time. either killed or stalled the investigation. The CPUC refused to turn oversixty or more emails from Governor Brown's office."
    source: Michael Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never", p. 214.

    Some Republicans back in 2008 tried the "Barack Obama isn't really Black" line. Which for some reason actual Black people in America did NOT buy. Quite the opposite!

    As for "the scandal-plagued California Democratic Party", there were indeed some scandals, but you and your source - hardly impeccable OR objective but instead polemical and unreliable (see his wiki bio) - are GREATLY exaggerated; and claim that Kamala Harris "either killed or stalled the investigation" (which is it?) is at best an opinion, at worst a slur.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794


    Yashar Ali 🐘
    @yashar
    CNN’s
    @jamiegangel
    says sources close to the Vice-President say these are some of the names being discussed as her running mate:

    Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
    Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
    North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
    Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro

    I predicted him!

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893

    I guess Trump will not be doing anymore debates.

    Actually he probably shouldn't. He's done a presidential debate already whereas Harris has not. Strategically it's better to deny her the platform particularly if he thinks he's ahead.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    The felon is frit.
    And apparently under the delusion that anyone needs his permission to run for president.

    Republican source tells Politico Trump is unlikely to debate Kamala Harris, saying he'll likely call her an 'illegitimate candidate.'
    https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1815141544141476021
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    viewcode said:


    Yashar Ali 🐘
    @yashar
    CNN’s
    @jamiegangel
    says sources close to the Vice-President say these are some of the names being discussed as her running mate:

    Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
    Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
    North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
    Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro

    I predicted him!

    Josh Shapiro
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 543
    HYUFD said:

    Very surprised to see that HYUFD hasn't endorsed Kamala yet.

    I would vote for Trump over Harris so obviously not
    What about Ukraine? And climate change?
  • HYUFD said:

    Very surprised to see that HYUFD hasn't endorsed Kamala yet.

    I would vote for Trump over Harris so obviously not
    Oh for goodness sake.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    Close sources saying is NOT same as a shortlist.

    Just sayin'.

    Also sayin' that sometimes (really many times) names get floated for Vice President - or even announced as being on shortlists - who are NOT actually in the frame.

    For example, Marco Rubio who was allegedly one of Trump's running-mate possibles. When the whole same-state Electoral College constitutional limitation issue meant that was phony baloney.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    Nigelb said:

    The felon is frit.
    And apparently under the delusion that anyone needs his permission to run for president.

    Republican source tells Politico Trump is unlikely to debate Kamala Harris, saying he'll likely call her an 'illegitimate candidate.'
    https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1815141544141476021

    And this is exactly how Trump can lose too. He can defeat himself through hubris and his own ego and complacency.

    If this does turn out to be true imagine how many news cycles the Democrats can run with the “he’s too scared to face our candidate” line.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    HYUFD said:

    Very surprised to see that HYUFD hasn't endorsed Kamala yet.

    I would vote for Trump over Harris so obviously not
    You disappoint me.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Nigelb said:

    The felon is frit.
    And apparently under the delusion that anyone needs his permission to run for president.

    Republican source tells Politico Trump is unlikely to debate Kamala Harris, saying he'll likely call her an 'illegitimate candidate.'
    https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1815141544141476021

    Allegedly tough enough to get up from being nearly assassinated but too spineless to face Harris !

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited July 21

    viewcode said:

    Go on guys. Have a guess who predicted Biden would go on Sunday or Monday.

    Just one guess... :)

    Leon?

    :smiley:
    Don't be silly, we're talking about a correct prediction.
    But Leon is always correct (since he always predicts both sides of the same issue!)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. "demands" an open Democratic convention, that's a laugh and a half.

    Seeing as how he got exactly ZERO delegates running as a Democrat, and left the Democratic Party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    HYUFD said:

    Very surprised to see that HYUFD hasn't endorsed Kamala yet.

    I would vote for Trump over Harris so obviously not
    What about Ukraine? And climate change?
    Harris is a woke warrior who wants reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms and would propogate western self hate. Trump is unpredictable to Putin and Xi, Harris would be incapable of standing up to them.

    She also backed Meghan over the royals. Climate change is happening regardless and will be solved by more nuclear and renewables not net zero destroying jobs.

    I would back Buttigieg or Shapiro or Michelle Obama over Trump though. Indeed I would have backed Biden over Trump and Hillary over Trump
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Very surprised to see that HYUFD hasn't endorsed Kamala yet.

    I would vote for Trump over Harris so obviously not
    What about Ukraine? And climate change?

    She also backed Meghan over the royals.
    Oh good god, she did?

    There was me worried about democratic backsliding and a worrying trend to autocracy in the States, but now I know Kamala Harris said something nice about Meghan Markle, well…
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 777
    Just another shout out to @rcs1000 for convincing me and others to back Harris at odds >40 for president less than a month ago, while eyes were mostly on our GE fun

    money money money, feels kinda funny, money in a rich mans world doo doo dee doo
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    Just another shout out to @rcs1000 for convincing me and others to back Harris at odds >40 for president less than a month ago, while eyes were mostly on our GE fun

    money money money, feels kinda funny, money in a rich mans world doo doo dee doo

    Unfortunately if she is nominee you will lose it all in November
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:


    Yashar Ali 🐘
    @yashar
    CNN’s
    @jamiegangel
    says sources close to the Vice-President say these are some of the names being discussed as her running mate:

    Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
    Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
    North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
    Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro

    She hasn't even got the nomination yet, note no Buttigieg on her shortlist so even more reason for him to challenge her at the convention
    Zero chance of that.
    A strong chance of that, Buttigieg has notably like Obama not endorsed Harris tonight. The rumour is they can't stand each other and she would sack him from her Cabinet on day one
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 777
    And also a shout out to OGH who was consistent since 2019 that Biden was going to be too old to run this time around. I disagreed with him, I made money on the nominee market (eventually - was a slowwww grind) and laid it off. But he has been proven right in the end. Way before other louder soothsayers may be claiming the credit.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 777
    edited July 21
    HYUFD said:

    Just another shout out to @rcs1000 for convincing me and others to back Harris at odds >40 for president less than a month ago, while eyes were mostly on our GE fun

    money money money, feels kinda funny, money in a rich mans world doo doo dee doo

    Unfortunately if she is nominee you will lose it all in November
    A. I disagree that she's guaranteed to lose
    B. In any case I'm very green...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    edited July 21
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Very surprised to see that HYUFD hasn't endorsed Kamala yet.

    I would vote for Trump over Harris so obviously not
    What about Ukraine? And climate change?
    Harris is a woke warrior who wants reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms...
    (pedant gene activated)

    Bathrooms for transgender, it's the people who are transgender, not the bathrooms.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    https://x.com/samstein/status/1815159817532481996

    Confirmed: Manchin is considering re-registering as a Democrat to run against Kamala Harris for the presidential nomination.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 777
    Nigelb said:

    The felon is frit.
    And apparently under the delusion that anyone needs his permission to run for president.

    Republican source tells Politico Trump is unlikely to debate Kamala Harris, saying he'll likely call her an 'illegitimate candidate.'
    https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1815141544141476021

    Probably a sensible strategy tbh.

    As @HYUFD is pointing out, this is not a time to assume Trump is gonna lose. And the market recognises that too (although his price is too short).
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 877
    WillG said:

    HYUFD said:

    WillG said:

    Nunu5 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ABC / Ipsos US (Jul 19-20, 2024)

    Trump
    Favourable 40%
    Unfavourable 51%
    No opinion 7%
    DK 2%

    Harris
    Favourable 35%
    Unfavourable 46%
    No opinion 13%
    DK 5%
    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/1815118157151088932

    You're being selective in quoting polling again. You chose not to add from the same poll:

    Biden: 32% favorable, 55% unfavorable, 9% no opinion

    i.e. Opinion significantly more favourable towards Harris than Biden at the point just before he took the decision not to run again.
    Well if Biden felt he couldn't beat Trump again on those numbers Harris sure ain't either!
    Why? She has lower unfavorables as well.

    And in FPTP, having less active dislike of you is often the winning move.
    She has 47% unfavourable, just 35% favourable that is a huge net negative for her with none of the enthusiasm for her from Democrats Trump has from his supporters
    Question for people who know more about US politics than me: why exactly is KH so supposedly unpopular? From what I’ve seen of her she’s OK, a bit bland maybe, certainly not a particularly divisive personality. Contrast with someone like JD Vance, or on the Dem side AOC.
    She's tied to Biden
    She's black and female.
    So is Michelle Obama but she has far more charisma than Harris
    People saying Harris has no charisma haven't seen her in action. Michelle Obama is very popular because she has no political record and got to spend eight years as First Lady hugging puppies and helping charities.
    I find the 'falling out of the coconut tree' clip I heard on Instagram a while back to be very articulate, profound, and charming. She is coherent, at least. Her opponent, assuming she gets the nomination, is not.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,280
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Very surprised to see that HYUFD hasn't endorsed Kamala yet.

    I would vote for Trump over Harris so obviously not
    What about Ukraine? And climate change?
    Harris is a woke warrior who wants reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms and would propogate western self hate. Trump is unpredictable to Putin and Xi, Harris would be incapable of standing up to them.

    She also backed Meghan over the royals. Climate change is happening regardless and will be solved by more nuclear and renewables not net zero destroying jobs.

    I would back Buttigieg or Shapiro or Michelle Obama over Trump though. Indeed I would have backed Biden over Trump and Hillary over Trump
    Wonder how you'll feel when Donald hands over a 1/4 of Ukraine to Putin as part of his 'Peace Plan' and then does nothing when Putin invades again two years later.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Maybe this was all part of a cunning Dem plan to wait for Trump to be confirmed as the GOP nominee and then have Biden withdraw.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    nico679 said:

    Maybe this was all part of a cunning Dem plan to wait for Trump to be confirmed as the GOP nominee and then have Biden withdraw.

    They definitely waited to have Vance as VP and for the ticket to be full MAGA. Trump was always going to be the nominee.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    It's on.

    David Eyre
    @DavieEyre
    Dòmhnall Iain v Kamala.
    Lewis v Harris.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    edited July 22
    The polls don't seem all that bad for Harris.

    National:

    CBS News: Trump 51%, Harris 48%
    Forbes/Harris: Trump 52%, Harris 48%
    Reuters/Ipsos: Trump 44%, Harris 44%
    Morning Consult: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
    NBC News: Trump 47%, Harris 45%
    Fox News: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
    NPR/PBS/Marist: Harris 50%, Trump 49%
    ABC News: Harris 49%, Trump 47%


    PA -> NYT: Trump 48%, Harris 47%
    VA -> NYT: Harris 49%, Trump 44%
    WI -> Trump 48%, Harris 47%

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Buttigeig is 350 for the nomination on Betfair.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    edited July 22
    "California's Gavin Newsom endorses Harris
    00:45
    BREAKING

    California Governor Gavin Newsom - who has himself been mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate to replace Joe Biden in recent weeks - has now endorsed Kamala Harris for president.

    In a statement, he says:

    "Tough. Fearless. Tenacious. With our democracy at stake and our future on the line, no one is better to prosecute the case against Donald Trump's dark vision and guide our country in a healthier direction than America’s Vice President, Kamala Harris."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cv2gryx1yx1t
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    Weirdly fortuitous thing going on with the left where the people who were mad at Kamala for being a cop and/or mad at Biden over Gaza are now supporting her because they think they're sticking it to the elites who were trying to switch in another candidate.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    edited July 22
    Tories know why they lost, but who will pull them from the dustbin?
    Caroline Wheeler and Harry Yorke
    Sunday July 21 2024, 12.01am BST, The Sunday Times

    LinksAI Summary
    New analysis shows the party was decimated by defectors to Reform and the Lib Dems. Can a new leader stop them being consigned to the scrapheap?

    The Conservative Party is facing a significant challenge after a catastrophic defeat in the recent election, with defectors to Reform and the Liberal Democrats playing a crucial role in their loss. The party is urged to focus on understanding the reasons behind the defeat before electing a new leader to prevent further internal conflict.

    Analysis by Onward highlights the importance of winning back defectors to Reform and the Liberal Democrats, as well as identifying key demographics that the party needs to target to regain support. The report emphasizes the need for a trustworthy and competent Conservative Party to attract voters back.

    The leadership contest to replace Rishi Sunak is yet to take shape, with various proposals being debated on the format and timeline of the contest. Prospective candidates are building support behind the scenes, with James Cleverly and Robert Jenrick emerging as potential contenders.

    Financial challenges also loom over the party, with Conservative Campaign Headquarters facing a cash shortage. The incoming leader will need to focus on fundraising efforts to ensure the party remains debt-free and can effectively run as an opposition.

    Overall, the Conservative Party faces a complex path to recovery, with the need to address internal divisions, win back defectors, and secure financial stability to have a chance at winning again in the future.
  • A random American on a train near Dalwhinnie recommended Beshear as impressive a few days ago, a Democrat who won the governorship in Kentucky which is very red and kept it. Beats Albanian taxi drivers in London any day!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    Am now watching on TV a professional rugby match, being played in Tukwila, Washington between Seattle Seawolves and San Diego Legend; 2nd half with Seattle leading 24-14 in 2nd half at 71.00.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    edited July 22
    viewcode said:

    Tories know why they lost, but who will pull them from the dustbin?
    Caroline Wheeler and Harry Yorke
    Sunday July 21 2024, 12.01am BST, The Sunday Times

    Links

    AI Summary
    New analysis shows the party was decimated by defectors to Reform and the Lib Dems. Can a new leader stop them being consigned to the scrapheap?

    The Conservative Party is facing a significant challenge after a catastrophic defeat in the recent election, with defectors to Reform and the Liberal Democrats playing a crucial role in their loss. The party is urged to focus on understanding the reasons behind the defeat before electing a new leader to prevent further internal conflict.

    Analysis by Onward highlights the importance of winning back defectors to Reform and the Liberal Democrats, as well as identifying key demographics that the party needs to target to regain support. The report emphasizes the need for a trustworthy and competent Conservative Party to attract voters back.

    The leadership contest to replace Rishi Sunak is yet to take shape, with various proposals being debated on the format and timeline of the contest. Prospective candidates are building support behind the scenes, with James Cleverly and Robert Jenrick emerging as potential contenders.

    Financial challenges also loom over the party, with Conservative Campaign Headquarters facing a cash shortage. The incoming leader will need to focus on fundraising efforts to ensure the party remains debt-free and can effectively run as an opposition.

    Overall, the Conservative Party faces a complex path to recovery, with the need to address internal divisions, win back defectors, and secure financial stability to have a chance at winning again in the future.
    Same old scissor play as what cut the old Liberal Party to ribbons in 1920s, between Conservatives and Labour.

    Of source, back then the Liberals had two outstanding, feuding, polarizing leaders & personalities: Herbert Asquith and David Lloyd George.

    Whereas a century later, what the Conservatives have got are understudies to the Three Stooges: Boris, Liz and Rishi.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    .

    A random American on a train near Dalwhinnie recommended Beshear as impressive a few days ago, a Democrat who won the governorship in Kentucky which is very red and kept it. Beats Albanian taxi drivers in London any day!

    It's a mark of the strength of the Democratic bench that there are probably half a dozen entirely credible VP picks.

    The Republicans have JD Vance.
    With Doug Burgum as runner up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Romney remains a class act.
    https://x.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1815171242200039501

    Incidentally, the list of issues on which he agreed with Biden is quite a long one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Why Biden finally quit

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/21/why-biden-dropped-out-00170106
    ... It wasn’t that the president had grown tired of the drip of defections from within his own party — although he had. Rather, it was that Biden himself was finally convinced of what so many other Democrats had come to believe since his poor debate performance last month: He couldn’t win.

    When the campaign commissioned new battleground polling over the last week, it was the first time they had done surveys in some key states in more than two months, according to two people familiar with the surveys. And the numbers were grim, showing Biden not just trailing in all six critical swing states but collapsing in places like Virginia and New Mexico where Democrats had not planned on needing to spend massive resources to win...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Well that’s some news to wake up to, having spent the weekend working to recover more than 100 computers and servers from this bloody “anti”-virus problem.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    MattW said:

    What about the ghost of Jeffrey Epstein?
    Does he write haunting articles for the Speccie?
    The real Epstein appeared in at least 70 - different photos with Trump, plus Trump is evidenced both saying how well he knows him, and outright lying about any association.

    There's material to be mined; the question is whether the MSM will cover it.
    Things have gone quiet on Epstein, perhaps because the hoped for Democrat or showbiz scalps were absent. Epstein/Trump links might not move the dial given Trump's reputation which did not stop him winning in 2016.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703

    MattW said:

    What about the ghost of Jeffrey Epstein?
    Does he write haunting articles for the Speccie?
    The real Epstein appeared in at least 70 - different photos with Trump, plus Trump is evidenced both saying how well he knows him, and outright lying about any association.

    There's material to be mined; the question is whether the MSM will cover it.
    Things have gone quiet on Epstein, perhaps because the hoped for Democrat or showbiz scalps were absent. Epstein/Trump links might not move the dial given Trump's reputation which did not stop him winning in 2016.
    I think that depends on audience.

    I'd concur that MAGA are down the rabbit hole.

    But there are segments of Independent and sane Republican voters who may be persuaded.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Weirdly fortuitous thing going on with the left where the people who were mad at Kamala for being a cop and/or mad at Biden over Gaza are now supporting her because they think they're sticking it to the elites who were trying to switch in another candidate.

    I like Kamala based on nothing more than the fact that she looks like sort of person you would expect to be POTUS in a Netflix series.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Fancy raising over $50,000,000 in just twelve hours!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    viewcode said:

    Who - if anybody - is the straight working-class white male Democratic governor who can balance the ticket? I don't see the South going for Harris/Buttigieg, Newsom is a California liberal so too posh and libby, Whitmer is a woman. How about Roy Cooper? (D-North Carolina)?

    Andy Beshear (Kentucky governor) is being touted. Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator) is short in the betting for someone not mentioned much.

    Betfair prices below 10 for VP nomination (but it is a very thin market):-
    Josh Shapiro 2.6
    Roy Cooper 4.3
    Mark Kelly 5.5
    Pete Buttigieg 8
    Andy Beshear 9.8

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    edited July 22
    Kamala's main weakness is that she is not a great speaker. Trump might be wrong if he rejects any debates against her.

    One hidden strength to which Jim_Miller has drawn attention, although I'm not sure this was his intention, is that Kamala taps into the Indian diaspora via her mother.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962
    Omg
    Post

    See new posts
    Conversation
    Tim Barker
    @_TimBarker
    "When the campaign commissioned new battleground polling over the last week, it was the first time they had done surveys in some key states in more than two months"


    https://x.com/_TimBarker/status/1815194565223006668
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    .
    Dura_Ace said:

    Weirdly fortuitous thing going on with the left where the people who were mad at Kamala for being a cop and/or mad at Biden over Gaza are now supporting her because they think they're sticking it to the elites who were trying to switch in another candidate.

    I like Kamala based on nothing more than the fact that she looks like sort of person you would expect to be POTUS in a Netflix series.
    I think she's quite pro animal welfare, by US standards.
    .. As California’s attorney general, Harris aligned with the state’s voters’ aggressive positions on animal welfare laws. Those included appealing a federal ruling that struck down California’s ban on the sale of foie gras...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited July 22

    Kamala's main weakness is that she is not a great speaker. Trump might be wrong if he rejects any debates against her.

    One hidden strength to which Jim_Miller has drawn attention, although I'm not sure this was his intention, is that Kamala taps into the Indian diaspora via her mother.

    The one thing all US presidents seem to have in common is that they are (or are able to present as) folksy. That’s her issue.

    It will be her, I suggest, because she’s the only one who can guarantee bringing across all the $$$$ already raised. 1.17 looks attractive given it will pay off before too long, on top of my profit from laying Biden.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962
    Andy_JS said:

    "California's Gavin Newsom endorses Harris
    00:45
    BREAKING

    California Governor Gavin Newsom - who has himself been mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate to replace Joe Biden in recent weeks - has now endorsed Kamala Harris for president.

    In a statement, he says:

    "Tough. Fearless. Tenacious. With our democracy at stake and our future on the line, no one is better to prosecute the case against Donald Trump's dark vision and guide our country in a healthier direction than America’s Vice President, Kamala Harris."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cv2gryx1yx1t

    Don't worry Gavin, it won't be you.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited July 22
    Do we have any indication of causes for the Leeds events, yet?

    This is the Leeanderthal Man. It feels here as if if there are going to be more kneejerks and dog whistles.

    Disgraceful Scenes.
    Import a third world culture then you get third world behaviour. These animals need locking up for good. They are a product of our spineless namby pamby establishment who have betrayed our great country.
    (Link to Sun article)
    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1814189175387672848


    There's a more subtle point about refugees / migrants moving from a more violent society to a more peaceful one in the West, and adaptation, and about community politics from other places being played out here. I'm not sure if that occurred.

    A fair amount of Trump-support type commentary merging in, but mainly BTL. Is that going to be a theme for RefUK driven by Farage?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    I can't see how anyone who sees themselves as 'Christian' could support, or vote for, Trump.

    A guy who thinks breaking the Commandments as being something to brag about, and not be ashamed of.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Dura_Ace said:

    Weirdly fortuitous thing going on with the left where the people who were mad at Kamala for being a cop and/or mad at Biden over Gaza are now supporting her because they think they're sticking it to the elites who were trying to switch in another candidate.

    I like Kamala based on nothing more than the fact that she looks like sort of person you would expect to be POTUS in a Netflix series.
    I think she's quite pro animal welfare, by US standards.
    .. As California’s attorney general, Harris aligned with the state’s voters’ aggressive positions on animal welfare laws. Those included appealing a federal ruling that struck down California’s ban on the sale of foie gras...
    Good for her. I will forgo the mega lols of a Trump victory for #kamala4thepeople.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Nigelb said:

    .

    A random American on a train near Dalwhinnie recommended Beshear as impressive a few days ago, a Democrat who won the governorship in Kentucky which is very red and kept it. Beats Albanian taxi drivers in London any day!

    It's a mark of the strength of the Democratic bench that there are probably half a dozen entirely credible VP picks.

    The Republicans have JD Vance.
    With Doug Burgum as runner up.
    Who knows what will happen, but Trump's choice of Vance may prove to be a very damaging manifestation of hubris.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    My wife looks better at 62 than she did at 32
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    MattW said:

    Do we have any indication of causes for the Leeds events, yet?

    This is the Leeanderthal Man. It feels here as if if there are going to be more kneejerks and dog whistles.

    Disgraceful Scenes.
    Import a third world culture then you get third world behaviour. These animals need locking up for good. They are a product of our spineless namby pamby establishment who have betrayed our great country.
    (Link to Sun article)
    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1814189175387672848


    There's a more subtle point about refugees / migrants moving from a more violent society to a more peaceful one in the West, and adaptation, and about community politics from other places being played out here. I'm not sure if that occurred.

    A fair amount of Trump-support type commentary merging in, but mainly BTL. Is that going to be a theme for RefUK driven by Farage?

    Leeds was explained pretty much immediately, and certainly before Farage fingered the wrong group. Basically social workers took some Romanian Roma children into care, which proved controversial to say the least. It all seems so long ago now, before Crowdstrike and Biden.
    https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2024-07-19/why-did-rioting-break-out-in-leeds
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,465
    HYUFD said:


    Yashar Ali 🐘
    @yashar
    CNN’s
    @jamiegangel
    says sources close to the Vice-President say these are some of the names being discussed as her running mate:

    Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
    Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
    North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
    Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro

    She hasn't even got the nomination yet, note no Buttigieg on her shortlist so even more reason for him to challenge her at the convention
    He is young enough to challenge again in 4, 8, 12, 16 or 20 years time.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    My wife looks better at 62 than she did at 32
    Cataracts?

    Sorry, couldn't resist. Mine have just been diagnosed.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    A random American on a train near Dalwhinnie recommended Beshear as impressive a few days ago, a Democrat who won the governorship in Kentucky which is very red and kept it. Beats Albanian taxi drivers in London any day!

    It's a mark of the strength of the Democratic bench that there are probably half a dozen entirely credible VP picks.

    The Republicans have JD Vance.
    With Doug Burgum as runner up.
    Who knows what will happen, but Trump's choice of Vance may prove to be a very damaging manifestation of hubris.
    Word on the street podcasts is that Trump already regrets Vance who threatens to overshadow him with extreme positions bluntly expressed.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    couldn't resist. Mine have just been diagnosed.

    My wife looks better at 62 than she did at 32
    Cataracts?

    Sorry, couldn't resist. Mine have just been diagnosed.
    Sorry to hear that , get them sorted out fast.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    I can't see how anyone who sees themselves as 'Christian' could support, or vote for, Trump.

    A guy who thinks breaking the Commandments as being something to brag about, and not be ashamed of.

    That's the point. They did. Things that ought to matter, often don't.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    HYUFD said:


    Yashar Ali 🐘
    @yashar
    CNN’s
    @jamiegangel
    says sources close to the Vice-President say these are some of the names being discussed as her running mate:

    Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
    Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
    North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
    Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro

    She hasn't even got the nomination yet, note no Buttigieg on her shortlist so even more reason for him to challenge her at the convention
    He is young enough to challenge again in 4, 8, 12, 16 or 20 years time.
    Yes, a lot of would-be challengers, and for that matter, those on the VP shortlist, will be weighing up the pros and cons of sitting this one out with an eye to their own presidential runs in future.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Nigelb said:

    The Trump campaign seems to be worried about his Epstein exposure.

    This digitally-altered image of Kamala Harris posing alongside Jeffrey Epstein is being shared in the wake of Joe Biden's endorsement of her as the new Democratic nominee.

    The real image, captured in 2015, shows Harris posing with her husband Douglas Emhoff.

    https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1815143449516990894

    How is that 'the Trump campaign' - are we really doing ludicrous smearing of this kind?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062

    And also a shout out to OGH who was consistent since 2019 that Biden was going to be too old to run this time around. I disagreed with him, I made money on the nominee market (eventually - was a slowwww grind) and laid it off. But he has been proven right in the end. Way before other louder soothsayers may be claiming the credit.

    Indeed. Trump is also too old, but he is also the Manchurian candidate, a clear and present danger to American democracy and global freedom. Incidentally the French security people believe the attempted assassination was a Russian put up job.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump campaign seems to be worried about his Epstein exposure.

    This digitally-altered image of Kamala Harris posing alongside Jeffrey Epstein is being shared in the wake of Joe Biden's endorsement of her as the new Democratic nominee.

    The real image, captured in 2015, shows Harris posing with her husband Douglas Emhoff.

    https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1815143449516990894

    How is that 'the Trump campaign' - are we really doing ludicrous smearing of this kind?
    Coming from you.... that's hilarious.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 962
    NEWS: Gov. Andy Beshear spoke with Harris today per a source with knowledge of the call.

    Beshear is set to appear on Morning Joe tomorrow AM.

    The Kentucky governor did praise Biden for his decision but did not weigh in beyond that.
    3:34 AM · Jul 22, 2024
    ·
    134.3K
    Views
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316

    Nigelb said:

    The Trump campaign seems to be worried about his Epstein exposure.

    This digitally-altered image of Kamala Harris posing alongside Jeffrey Epstein is being shared in the wake of Joe Biden's endorsement of her as the new Democratic nominee.

    The real image, captured in 2015, shows Harris posing with her husband Douglas Emhoff.

    https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1815143449516990894

    How is that 'the Trump campaign' - are we really doing ludicrous smearing of this kind?
    Yes
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Will Trump bother with a candidate debate with Harris ?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    A random American on a train near Dalwhinnie recommended Beshear as impressive a few days ago, a Democrat who won the governorship in Kentucky which is very red and kept it. Beats Albanian taxi drivers in London any day!

    It's a mark of the strength of the Democratic bench that there are probably half a dozen entirely credible VP picks.

    The Republicans have JD Vance.
    With Doug Burgum as runner up.
    Who knows what will happen, but Trump's choice of Vance may prove to be a very damaging manifestation of hubris.
    Word on the street podcasts is that Trump already regrets Vance who threatens to overshadow him with extreme positions bluntly expressed.
    Even his past condemnations of Trump are pretty extreme.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    edited July 22
    Cicero said:

    And also a shout out to OGH who was consistent since 2019 that Biden was going to be too old to run this time around. I disagreed with him, I made money on the nominee market (eventually - was a slowwww grind) and laid it off. But he has been proven right in the end. Way before other louder soothsayers may be claiming the credit.

    Indeed. Trump is also too old, but he is also the Manchurian candidate, a clear and present danger to American democracy and global freedom. Incidentally the French security people believe the attempted assassination was a Russian put up job.
    That would be the french security people who told us Putin had no intention of invading Ukraine ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Cicero said:

    And also a shout out to OGH who was consistent since 2019 that Biden was going to be too old to run this time around. I disagreed with him, I made money on the nominee market (eventually - was a slowwww grind) and laid it off. But he has been proven right in the end. Way before other louder soothsayers may be claiming the credit.

    Indeed. Trump is also too old, but he is also the Manchurian candidate, a clear and present danger to American democracy and global freedom. Incidentally the French security people believe the attempted assassination was a Russian put up job.
    The mind really does boggle.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Will Trump bother with a candidate debate with Harris ?

    I don't know about "not bothering". I should think he would run a mile if possible. He's now by far the candidate likelier to come out with nonsensical gibberish.
This discussion has been closed.