Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Edward Henry KC has skilfully put another big piece of the PO Scandal jigsaw in place.
The Government was floating the Royal Mail off in a public sale at almost exactly the time the evidence emerged that Horizon was crap and the PO's Expert Witness had lied in court. Some coincidence!
And now Perkins has been nailed by none other than Paula Vennells' lawyer.
Alice caught out lying.
Vennells and Perkins were thick as thieves at the PO, but Perkins cut her old friend adrift in her testimony, and now it seems PV is fighting back.
Cats in a sack!
Unfortunately none of the real lessons will be learned from this exercise. We will still have a revolving cast of public sector senior executives moving from job to job knowing of how to do any of them.
When it comes to the main cast in this Horizon scandal can’t we just get an enterprising backbencher once this election is over to just put through a bill declaring them guilty.
It would be wonderful, Jim!
But as followers of the saga know all too well, all three main parties have dirty hands in this matter. You think they are going to find themselves guilty?
Of course not but then I’ve long yearned for the resurgence of that mythical creature the independent minded backbencher. Sadly what we get is a parade of identikit nonentities who are manacled by the genitals to the party machine.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
The funniest thing about this election is you can bet they were talking about how a couple of weeks in they thought they could achieve crossover, little did they know the monkey's paw was curling.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
It's a Lib Dem redux from 2015.
With, ironically, the same result - the party is wiped out while its leader fucks off to a cushy job with a tech company in California for a seven-figure salary.
This SpaceX broadcast really is a vertical integration achievement.
Elon's rocket on Elon's social media platform, with the signal provided by his satellites.
He is cunning devil in that respect. Same way as Tesla SuperChargers network are located in many prime spots for charging and has solar / battery powerwall tech to provide power for them, and the starlink is much better for internet on commercial planes than existing satellite tech can either be (and there is ever greater need for fast internet on planes, both from telemetry being send to the ground and passengers wanting it).
The super charger network was carefully located to make long distance trips in EVs easy.
Starlink was as a result of others failing to take the opportunity to launch absurdly cheaply on F9. “If no one else will…”. Other LEO constellation designs assumed infrequent, expensive launch.
The story of the Amazonian tribe who just got internet access from Starlink is quite funny.
It took them six months to be hooked on social media and porn, same as the rest of us.
O/t, of course, but just been out and about in the Witham constituency, with a brief trip into the north of Chelmsford. One LibDem poster and several Labour ones, although some of those were on the Labour Hall in Witham. Nothing on the two Con Clubs we passed. Facebook post from the Indie in Witham.
OK, few questions this time, perhaps for obvious reasons. Thank you to all those who commented, and responding to the questions as follows:
@Benpointer. Regarding your "The Formally Constituted Party maybe? Or The Single Constitution Member's Party?". I technically covered this in the "THE NATIONAL PARTY OF REGIONAL PARTIES" category...or at least I think I did. The Conservatives used to be the paradigm of this, being a loose association of constituency parties, then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_and_Unionist_Central_Office_v_Burrell came along and muddied the waters, and (I think) Cameron tightened the organisation in the 2000s. So the answer is...um? This is why I omitted both the Labour and Conservative parties. The expanded version will cover this, if only to describe their power dynamic. @HYUFD probably knows more about this than me, btw. Which incidentally begs the question: who writes the Conservative manifesto in 2024? Ditto Labour?
I'l repeat my answer of earlier so I have them all in one place. Regarding the Australian Coalition of Liberals and Nationals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_(Australia), aka the "Coalition". Yes I think you are right and I am wrong. I attempted to draw a distinction between the more informal US/UK alliances and pacts and the more formal European groups and fraktions, but it didn't really work which is why the CDU/CSU appears twice.
Each article has an expanded version, usually written some months afterwards, where I present a longer version backstage with the errors corrected. I'll include that there. This years expanded versions will be after November 2024 due to the elections and conferences.
If Reform win 18%, they'd poll 20% plus in the North East, Yorkshire and Humberside, East and West Midlands, and Eastern Area. My guess would be that their highest vote shares, 30%+, would be in Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, Durham, South Essex, coastal constituencies, and some Red Wall seats. It's very hard to know how many seats they'd win, but they must win some, as I expect in some constituencies, the Conservative vote would collapse to them, in others, hold up better, or go to other parties.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Farage and the Brexit Party received a 30.5% share and five and a quarter million votes in the 2019 European elections.
5.25 million votes would be 16% of a 32 million turnout (the number of votes at GE2019), so 18% on a lower turnout isn't implausible.
But I do think that the YouGov numbers for Reform are a bit high. That's what the by-elections suggested.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
The funniest thing about this election is you can bet they were talking about how a couple of weeks in they thought they could achieve crossover, little did they know the monkey's paw was curling.
The tory manifesto is guaranteed to be a golf club bore wank mag at this point. IHT, ECHR, etc.
They are doomed and trying to out-fuk the Fukkers is their only move at this point.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
The funniest thing about this election is you can bet they were talking about how a couple of weeks in they thought they could achieve crossover, little did they know the monkey's paw was curling.
The tory manifesto is guaranteed to be a golf club bore wank mag at this point. IHT, ECHR, etc.
They are doomed and trying to out-fuk the Fukkers is their only move at this point.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
In the YouGov with new methodology, putting Reform on 17%, they're on 25% in the Midlands, 21% in the North, 12% London and 16% in the Rest of South.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Why don't you think the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats.
The Tories are bouncing around at 20% in a lot of polls and I see very little incentive for your typical Tory voter to go out and vote for Rishi on July 4th.
Edit and all previous history says that when a national party gets below 25% of the vote actually winning seats gets to be very hard work..
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
I agree. I cannot see Lab taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston or either IOW seat, but that us what polls and MRP show.
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Your post recalls the famous quote from Lily Bollinger about champagne
"I Fuck The Tories drink champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I Fuck The Tories when I'm alone. When I have company I consider Fucking The Tories obligatory. I trifle with Fucking The Tories if I'm not hungry and Fuck The Tories when I am. Otherwise, I never Fuck The Tories -- unless I'm awake."
O/t, of course, but just been out and about in the Witham constituency, with a brief trip into the north of Chelmsford. One LibDem poster and several Labour ones, although some of those were on the Labour Hall in Witham. Nothing on the two Con Clubs we passed. Facebook post from the Indie in Witham.
Only seen LibDem posters in North Dorset - I assume the Conservative voters are too embarrassed to advertise the fact. Nothing from Labour either, which lends weight to the idea that the LDs are the main challenger here.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Yep.
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
The funniest thing about this election is you can bet they were talking about how a couple of weeks in they thought they could achieve crossover, little did they know the monkey's paw was curling.
The tory manifesto is guaranteed to be a golf club bore wank mag at this point. IHT, ECHR, etc.
They are doomed and trying to out-fuk the Fukkers is their only move at this point.
That's their problem. They can't out REFUK the REFUKers.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
It's a Lib Dem redux from 2015.
In 2015 the Lib Dems lost 86% of their MPs.
Entirely possible that could happen to the Tories this year. Would leave them on 51 MPs and probably only just the official opposition but potentially not it.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
If Reform win 18%, they'd poll 20% plus in the North East, Yorkshire and Humberside, East and West Midlands, and Eastern Area. My guess would be that their highest vote shares, 30%+, would be in Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, Durham, South Essex, coastal constituencies, and some Red Wall seats. It's very hard to know how many seats they'd win, but they must win some, as I expect in some constituencies, the Conservative vote would collapse to them, in others, hold up better, or go to other parties.
There’s also the possibility that the Labour vote in some areas will prove very soft and either stay at home because of a lack of enthusiasm, or actively switch to a non-Tory alternative.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats.
In 1987 they got 22.6% of the vote and 22 seats.
Electoral Calculus Lab 40% Reform 24% Tories 16% gives Lab 499 and Reform in fourth place on 25 seats.....
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
I agree. I cannot see Lab taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston or either IOW seat, but that us what polls and MRP show.
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
Of course you will be doing your bit to prevent it by wasting your vote in Mid Leicestershire!!!
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Why don't you think the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats.
The Tories are bouncing around at 20% in a lot of polls and I see very little incentive for your typical Tory voter to go out and vote for Rishi on July 4th.
Edit and all previous history says that when a national party gets below 25% of the vote actually winning seats gets to be very hard work..
Playing around on Electoral Calculus, I get the Tories on 198 seats with Labour leading by 39-29, which is the best recent Tory poll score and 1pp below the worst recent Labour poll score.
So I guess above 200 seats for the Tories is still possible. The polls might narrow, and there have been times in the past when the least favourable poll for Labour was the most accurate.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Maguire injured, not training yet and not the quickest at regaining form when coming back so sensible. If fit sure he would have been 1st choice despite his limitations at club level.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
That is huge surprise. Maguire apparently is still injured (but I think they are taking Shaw even though he has been injured for longer). Who starts at centre back, Stones and ?. Also Stones is pretty injury prone as well.
Grealish hasn't been at his best this season, but he has done well for England. Also he is top drawer coming on with 10 mins to go and drawing foul after foul.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats.
In 1987 they got 22.6% of the vote and 22 seats.
Electoral Calculus Lab 40% Reform 24% Tories 16% gives Lab 499 and Reform in fourth place on 25 seats.....
My guess is that it would become impossible to model seat numbers properly, if Reform UK were to reach 24%. They won 3% in 2019, but they won't be putting on 21% in every constituency. It would be more like a range of almost no change on 2019 to anything up to 40%.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
That is huge surprise. Maguire apparently is still injured (but I think they are taking Shaw even though he has been injured for longer). Who starts at centre back, Stones and ?. Also Stones is pretty injury prone as well.
Grealish hasn't been at his best this season, but he has done well for England. Also he is top drawer coming on with 10 mins to go and drawing foul and foul.
I think he might give Branthwaite a whirl. He has been superb for Everton this season and – because it's Everton – has had lots of practice at defending!
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Maguire is injured and the other options are as good technically but also faster so it’s not a bad problem. Grealish has had a lot less game time this season than those in the same position so not a huge surprise.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats.
In 1987 they got 22.6% of the vote and 22 seats.
And don't forget, in 1983 the 23 included mostly existing seats or by-election wins. There were only 6 actual gains not counting defectors holding on or by-elections, despite an 11% rise from the Liberal vote in 1979. Reform will do far worse than this, basically they have just Farage and Anderson who might poll much above the average.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
That is huge surprise. Maguire apparently is still injured (but I think they are taking Shaw even though he has been injured for longer). Who starts at centre back, Stones and ?. Also Stones is pretty injury prone as well.
Grealish hasn't been at his best this season, but he has done well for England. Also he is top drawer coming on with 10 mins to go and drawing foul and foul.
I think he might give Branthwaite a whirl. He has been superb for Everton this season and – because it's Everton – has had lots of practice at defending!
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Why don't you think the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats.
The Tories are bouncing around at 20% in a lot of polls and I see very little incentive for your typical Tory voter to go out and vote for Rishi on July 4th.
Edit and all previous history says that when a national party gets below 25% of the vote actually winning seats gets to be very hard work..
Playing around on Electoral Calculus, I get the Tories on 198 seats with Labour leading by 39-29, which is the best recent Tory poll score and 1pp below the worst recent Labour poll score.
So I guess above 200 seats for the Tories is still possible. The polls might narrow, and there have been times in the past when the least favourable poll for Labour was the most accurate.
There is time still for a big shift in the polling. It's just it gets less and less likely each day, and a big shift doesn't have to be a big shift *to* the Tories.
If Reform win 18%, they'd poll 20% plus in the North East, Yorkshire and Humberside, East and West Midlands, and Eastern Area. My guess would be that their highest vote shares, 30%+, would be in Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, Durham, South Essex, coastal constituencies, and some Red Wall seats. It's very hard to know how many seats they'd win, but they must win some, as I expect in some constituencies, the Conservative vote would collapse to them, in others, hold up better, or go to other parties.
There’s also the possibility that the Labour vote in some areas will prove very soft and either stay at home because of a lack of enthusiasm, or actively switch to a non-Tory alternative.
Reform could pick up don't knows/won't votes, and some Con - Lab switchers.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Palmer is probably more the player that has taken Grealish spot as first off the taxi rank after Foden and Saka. Then there is also Anthony Gordon.
But I don't see Bowen and Dunk better than the ones been cut.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Look at the other poll showing if things have got better or worse over the last 14 years. It is only about 5% who think things have got better on most of the important factors. The surprising thing is there are still 20% who want to reward the corrupt, useless and divided Conservatives with another 5 years.
I don’t even have an issue with believing or getting that the Tories are down on 18%. I could understand if loads of those former Tories were going to the Lib Dems or Labour but it’s the idea that there are 18% saying reform.
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
I like to look at party voting by including anti-Tory and anti-Labour as well as pro the main parties.
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats.
In 1987 they got 22.6% of the vote and 22 seats.
Electoral Calculus Lab 40% Reform 24% Tories 16% gives Lab 499 and Reform in fourth place on 25 seats.....
My guess is that it would become impossible to model seat numbers properly, if Reform UK were to reach 24%. They won 3% in 2019, but they won't be putting on 21% in every constituency. It would be more like a range of almost no change on 2019 to anything up to 40%.
Agree the model is not at all designed for this sort of change. But a divided right will suffer at least as badly from FPTP as the divided centre left have done over the last few decades. And PR will gain a load of new advocates, as well as losing a few lefty ones.
Apols if this has already been mentioned but that 'new method' YouGov (Lab 40%, Con 19%, RefUK 17%, LDs 10%, Greens 7%) gives us the LDs as Official Opposition according to Electoral Calculus.
If we use the YouGov 'old method' figures (Lab 45%, Con 18%, RefUK 18%, LDs 8%, Greens 6%) the LDs still come out of EC as the Official Opposition, on 8% of the vote. The irony of the Tory handwringing at a FPTP outcome like that would be delicious.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
If Reform win 18%, they'd poll 20% plus in the North East, Yorkshire and Humberside, East and West Midlands, and Eastern Area. My guess would be that their highest vote shares, 30%+, would be in Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, Durham, South Essex, coastal constituencies, and some Red Wall seats. It's very hard to know how many seats they'd win, but they must win some, as I expect in some constituencies, the Conservative vote would collapse to them, in others, hold up better, or go to other parties.
There’s also the possibility that the Labour vote in some areas will prove very soft and either stay at home because of a lack of enthusiasm, or actively switch to a non-Tory alternative.
I think this last point is possible if Con/Ref crossover happens. Even if it only happens in one poll Farage will stylize the election as him versus Starmer. At that point Labour might regret the slogan 'Change'....
A film I have never heard of and just googled. Don't know if it is any good but the cast looks fantastic.
It's absolutely terrible. And I love it to bits. Think a 70's Pertwee Who, then add better effects, increase the amount of UNIT, remove Pertwee, then add Frank Findlay as the Man From The Ministry. Then add space vampires who in their naked form are perky. Very perky. Then blow up London.
It has Peter Firth as a SAS Colonel. Problem is, it's "Dominic Hyde"-era Firth, not the "Spooks" version, so he really hasn't got the gravitas.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
O/t, of course, but just been out and about in the Witham constituency, with a brief trip into the north of Chelmsford. One LibDem poster and several Labour ones, although some of those were on the Labour Hall in Witham. Nothing on the two Con Clubs we passed. Facebook post from the Indie in Witham.
Only seen LibDem posters in North Dorset - I assume the Conservative voters are too embarrassed to advertise the fact. Nothing from Labour either, which lends weight to the idea that the LDs are the main challenger here.
As I said below....Conservatives put their posters out later than other parties, because they invariably get torn down by the other parties.
Or maybe its politically enraged badgers. Taking revenge for the cull. Maybe that's it.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Your post recalls the famous quote from Lily Bollinger about champagne
"I Fuck The Tories drink champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I Fuck The Tories when I'm alone. When I have company I consider Fucking The Tories obligatory. I trifle with Fucking The Tories if I'm not hungry and Fuck The Tories when I am. Otherwise, I never Fuck The Tories -- unless I'm awake."
Interesting language from someone who’s not really anonymous given that he’s going to be a candidate.
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
I agree. I cannot see Lab taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston or either IOW seat, but that us what polls and MRP show.
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
I suppose the impact of soaring mortgage rates i.e. the Liz Truss Dividend, has hit the gravel driveways of leafy Northumberland, much like everywhere else.
Anecdote: a family member works in high end auto sales and business is good, because HNW individuals are not impacted and are still buying Lambos etc. However, he is inundated with calls from over financed people trying to offload Range Rovers/Land Rovers (which he generally doesn't deal in) because their mortgage costs have soared. These are the people who are going to swing some of these seats.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
That is huge surprise. Maguire apparently is still injured (but I think they are taking Shaw even though he has been injured for longer). Who starts at centre back, Stones and ?. Also Stones is pretty injury prone as well.
Grealish hasn't been at his best this season, but he has done well for England. Also he is top drawer coming on with 10 mins to go and drawing foul and foul.
I think he might give Branthwaite a whirl. He has been superb for Everton this season and – because it's Everton – has had lots of practice at defending!
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Palmer is probably more the player that has taken Grealish spot.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Your post recalls the famous quote from Lily Bollinger about champagne
"I Fuck The Tories drink champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I Fuck The Tories when I'm alone. When I have company I consider Fucking The Tories obligatory. I trifle with Fucking The Tories if I'm not hungry and Fuck The Tories when I am. Otherwise, I never Fuck The Tories -- unless I'm awake."
Interesting language from someone who’s not really anonymous given that he’s going to be a candidate.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Palmer is probably more the player that has taken Grealish spot.
With Henderson, Mainoo, Bowen and Watkins as extras
Foden has to start. EPL player of the season, just absolutely ripped up at the end of the season. I would say also Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he looked excellent in the friendly the over night (when rest of England were very poor).
I still think you take Grealish ahead of Gordon and Bowen, as he has proved he can play a role at major tournaments.
Defence is shaky as hell. An injury / suspension or two, and it looks really ropey.
Mahoosive nursery fees won't help (2 months at a grand a piece for us coming up), that problem has been solved for the future by Hunt though and replaced by parents with the 'can't get a nursery place' problem.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Sunak won the debate (51 to 49). Crossover would similarly be a ramped headline.
Not sure if this has been discussed yet but Farage has a personal vote and just like the referendum produced a huge turnout from voters to vote leave , I think over 64.5% on turnout at nearly 2/1 is good value given the Farage intervention. I think Reform will get votes significantly from people who would not vote at all otherwise
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
I agree. I cannot see Lab taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston or either IOW seat, but that us what polls and MRP show.
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
I suppose the impact of soaring mortgage rates i.e. the Liz Truss Dividend, has hit the gravel driveways of leafy Northumberland, much like everywhere else.
Anecdote: a family member works in high end auto sales and business is good, because HNW individuals are not impacted and are still buying Lambos etc. However, he is inundated with calls from over financed people trying to offload Range Rovers/Land Rovers (which he generally doesn't deal in) because their mortgage costs have soared. These are the people who are going to swing some of these seats.
The whole Western car industry is on the brink of collapse at the moment. For a decade and a half it was run on zero interest rates, allowing ordinary people to buy lease premium cars - but now it’s crashing back down to earth, at the same time as regulators are pushing a EV-biased sales mix and the Chinese are turning up to undercut everyone in the mass market.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Sunak won the debate (51 to 49). Crossover would similarly be a ramped headline.
But do you have any evidence that ramped headlines in the tabloid press are able to tranform voting intention?
If so, how can Labour be 20-30% ahead of the Tories?
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Where it might become meaningful is in terms of meeting other people in your social group who are intending to vote Tory/Reform, and social effects that follow from that.
If you're a man of a certain age on the right of British politics and live in the North or Midlands, then the YouGov poll strongly suggests you're much more likely to meet people in your peer group who intend to vote Reform, rather than Tory.
If you're wavering between the two, this will likely influence you to vote Reform. If you were already intending to vote Reform this would be suicidal reinforcement of your choice, making it more likely to stick. If you were one of the remaining Tories, it might make you wonder whether you had it wrong.
Have we talked about the latest YouGov? Tories and Reform level on 18 each?
It’s quite bizarre when you think about it. No idea if the polls are accurate or there is a weird quirk but I keep thinking about it in bewilderment. When you think “Reform on 18%, same as Tories” first it’s, well surely there aren’t 18% of voters in Winchester, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford etc who would go for Reform. Obviously I then think, don’t be silly, it’s larger amounts in Hartlepool, Clacton etc. This starts to level out the imbalance but then I still think, surely there can’t be that many, the sheer number of seats that are needed to push Reform to 18% as an average when you factor in Tory south eastern and Home Counties strongholds, London Labour Storngholds, northern Labour shoe-ins, Scottish Seats, Welsh seats.
It just doesn’t really make sense that a party that’s pretty much an unknown quantity except for being anti-immigration, and where only one candidate would be remotely known by 90% of the population could be getting such high numbers.
Is it people responding Reform to pollsters because they are just unhappy with the Tories and can’t think about who they actually would vote for so send a message. Are there really 18% of the population who are so angry about immigration they will vote Reform?
I know it’s a lot more complicated but it seems totally unreal.
Here's my hypothesis.
This is the Fuck The Tories election. Practically everyone hates them. They have lost the red wall and the cities and the towns to Labour and seem to now be leaking rural areas to them as well. They have lost the south and leafy suburbs to the LibDems.
But for true blue Brexiteer Tories? Of course they are going Reform - because the Tories aren't conservative and Reform are.
Farage stepping up is the end. Sorry Tories, but you did this to yourselves.
Your post recalls the famous quote from Lily Bollinger about champagne
"I Fuck The Tories drink champagne when I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I Fuck The Tories when I'm alone. When I have company I consider Fucking The Tories obligatory. I trifle with Fucking The Tories if I'm not hungry and Fuck The Tories when I am. Otherwise, I never Fuck The Tories -- unless I'm awake."
Interesting language from someone who’s not really anonymous given that he’s going to be a candidate.
"Fuck the tories" very much captures the zeitgeist and would probably be a net electoral benefit to RP.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Palmer is probably more the player that has taken Grealish spot.
With Henderson, Mainoo, Bowen and Watkins as extras
Foden has to start. EPL player of the season, just absolutely ripped up at the end of the season. I would say also Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he looked excellent in the friendly the over night (when rest of England were very poor).
I still think you take Grealish ahead of Gordon and Bowen, as he has proved he can play a role at major tournaments.
It's a tricky one, but I think Southgate won't want to mess around with Bellingham. Foden is very good player to bring off the bench. He could start on the left as well.
I'm obviously biased, but if Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he must be bloody good.
Grealish and Maguire axed from the England soccer squad. What does that do for our chances?
Grealish is a surprise. Re: Maguire, I think the new centre backs that have come in have looked promising so he's clearly going to take a chance on them.
Agreed.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
Palmer is probably more the player that has taken Grealish spot.
With Henderson, Mainoo, Bowen and Watkins as extras
Foden has to start. EPL player of the season, just absolutely ripped up at the end of the season. I would say also Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he looked excellent in the friendly the over night (when rest of England were very poor).
I still think you take Grealish ahead of Gordon and Bowen, as he has proved he can play a role at major tournaments.
It's a tricky one, but I think Southgate won't want to mess around with Bellingham. Foden is very good player to bring off the bench. He could start on the left as well.
I'm obviously biased, but if Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he must be bloody good.
You start Foden on the left for me as he doe a lot for Man City. Palmer singlehandedly carried Chelsea all season. I think Saka still gets the nod, again he has played well in the big tournaments, but I think Palmer is now next off the rank.
But this is Southgate, we might end up with a back 5, and Bellingham and Rice playing defensive midfield roles.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Where it might become meaningful is in terms of meeting other people in your social group who are intending to vote Tory/Reform, and social effects that follow from that.
If you're a man of a certain age on the right of British politics and live in the North or Midlands, then the YouGov poll strongly suggests you're much more likely to meet people in your peer group who intend to vote Reform, rather than Tory.
If you're wavering between the two, this will likely influence you to vote Reform. If you were already intending to vote Reform this would be suicidal reinforcement of your choice, making it more likely to stick. If you were one of the remaining Tories, it might make you wonder whether you had it wrong.
Perhaps so, but that's nothing to do with people looking at opinion poll figures, spotting a magic number and changing their voting intention en masse.
England could have really done with Ben White. He is solid and dependable and can play RB or CB. Seems like neither party are willing to back down or apologise.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Sunak won the debate (51 to 49). Crossover would similarly be a ramped headline.
Also a Reform crossover might gain a lot of traction as a headline amongst people who don’t normally follow it much.
Cannot underestimate the name recognition of Farage amongst the otherwise politically unengaged
So if "Fuck the Tories" is bad and "Never Kissed a Tory" is bad, is "Sometimes holding a Tory's hand" just right?
Fuck the Tories is fine. Fuck them and their racist sugar daddy Frank Hester.
FTT is an interestingt strategy in a highly Brexity seat - albeit with the farmers and the fishermen mildly disappointed by the way in which the situation has developed not necessarily to their advantage despite promises.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
I think it's a big mistake to think that many people follow the polls as closely as people here do.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
Where it might become meaningful is in terms of meeting other people in your social group who are intending to vote Tory/Reform, and social effects that follow from that.
If you're a man of a certain age on the right of British politics and live in the North or Midlands, then the YouGov poll strongly suggests you're much more likely to meet people in your peer group who intend to vote Reform, rather than Tory.
If you're wavering between the two, this will likely influence you to vote Reform. If you were already intending to vote Reform this would be suicidal reinforcement of your choice, making it more likely to stick. If you were one of the remaining Tories, it might make you wonder whether you had it wrong.
Perhaps so, but that's nothing to do with people looking at opinion poll figures, spotting a magic number and changing their voting intention en masse.
The mechanism is different, but the effect would be very similar.
England could have really done with Ben White. He is solid and dependable and can play RB or CB. Seems like neither party are willing to back down or apologise.
Lots of speculation about it, but if what was reported in (I think) The Athletic is true, Holland really is a waste of space.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
WEDNESDAY: Ross launches an outrageous removal of Duguid as Tory candidate THURSDAY: Ross suffers combative meeting of the local Tory association FRIDAY: Ross submits his candidate paperwork. For Reform.
If crossover happens in Scotland, I'll be shocked. I suspect the Faragegasm will stop at Gretna Green - though I remain open minded.
Just noticed one of the seat prediction accounts on Twitter having Hexham down as a comfortable Labour win. HEXHAM.
Surely not? even T Blair couldn't oust the Tories in that part of Northumberland.
I agree. I cannot see Lab taking Harborough Oadby and Wigston or either IOW seat, but that us what polls and MRP show.
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
IMHO Labour will take Hexham this time. Under 12% swing. Cultural similarities to the Cumbria seats, none Labour currently, all (bar Farron's) set to go Labour this time.
The discord between what some people here expect to happen, and the polls and markets, has never been higher I think.
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
It's not just the PB Tories buy any means. I also cannot believe the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats. But yes, over 141 seats is 4 on BX. Lots of value there.
Why don't you think the Tories will get fewer than 200 seats.
The Tories are bouncing around at 20% in a lot of polls and I see very little incentive for your typical Tory voter to go out and vote for Rishi on July 4th.
Edit and all previous history says that when a national party gets below 25% of the vote actually winning seats gets to be very hard work..
Playing around on Electoral Calculus, I get the Tories on 198 seats with Labour leading by 39-29, which is the best recent Tory poll score and 1pp below the worst recent Labour poll score.
So I guess above 200 seats for the Tories is still possible. The polls might narrow, and there have been times in the past when the least favourable poll for Labour was the most accurate.
There is time still for a big shift in the polling. It's just it gets less and less likely each day, and a big shift doesn't have to be a big shift *to* the Tories.
I suspect the chance of a shift away from the Tories is higher than that of a shift to them, simply because of the risk of them descending into panicked chaos.
And that risk becomes greater still if we do see a Faragasm or there are any last minute defections.
By contrast, Labour's strategy is to minimise risk rather than maximise gains, so they're less likely to do anything which might provoke a shift in the polling.
England could have really done with Ben White. He is solid and dependable and can play RB or CB. Seems like neither party are willing to back down or apologise.
White is a weird guy. Doesn't like football despite being a footballer and seemingly happy to forego an opportunity to play for his country in a major tournament over some silly falling out.
Crossover would itself become a big media story, as mentioned yesterday.
Defections might then probably follow.
WEDNESDAY: Ross launches an outrageous removal of Duguid as Tory candidate THURSDAY: Ross suffers combative meeting of the local Tory association FRIDAY: Ross submits his candidate paperwork. For Reform.
If crossover happens in Scotland, I'll be shocked. I suspect the Faragegasm will stop at Gretna Green - though I remain open minded.
But Moray etc is a very Brexity area for Scotland, though.
England could have really done with Ben White. He is solid and dependable and can play RB or CB. Seems like neither party are willing to back down or apologise.
Lots of speculation about it, but if what was reported in (I think) The Athletic is true, Holland really is a waste of space.
Hmm, I don't think that is true. He had an exceptional background at Crewe bringing through incredible young talent. Then he went to Chelsea and despite them having about 27 different managers, he was actually promoted during that time from reserve to first team coach to assistant manager. My understanding is that he is really the on that devises the tactics.
What I don't think he is so good at is man management. He had a go at being Crewe manager and he awful.
Comments
The pollsters surely take their respondents from all over the country so it should reflect the range so are all these reform votes in one area so in those areas Reform are actually polling say 70% which evens out to 18% nationwide or is it really nearly 18% across the board?
Yes - the polls and markets are not always right, and much can move.
But this is a website called political betting dot com. There are people saying “Oh, X could never happen” when they could get 20/1 on X not happening…and yet it doesn’t appear they are taking it up!
To be fair, I doubt even the diehard PB Tories think a Tory Majority is possible anymore, but many still think it will end up being around 200 Tory seats and the value is massive on that!
I voted Con in 2019 for the first time and I can't think of one single positive reason to vote for them. And the big danger is that negative reasons e.g. Stop Labour, Reform is a wasted vote become less and less relevant too, especially if we get crossover.
Seems reasonable.
I think the current landscape is broadly:
Pro-Labour 20
Pro-Tory 10
Pro-LD 5
Pro-Refuk 5
Pro-Green 5
Anti-Tory 40
Anti-Labour 15
I don't see why Refuk can't get a quarter of the anti-Tory vote and the anti-Labour vote will mostly end up with whichever of Tory and Refuk are higher at the end of the campaign. So I'd find anything up to about 22% Reform plausible by the end of the campaign.
“Was that the primary buffer panel?”
https://youtu.be/i7psUqvZMXs?si=-4bxsvuPoraSZAcM
6 months?
6 hours, more like.
Nothing on the two Con Clubs we passed.
Facebook post from the Indie in Witham.
@Benpointer. Regarding your "The Formally Constituted Party maybe? Or The Single Constitution Member's Party?". I technically covered this in the "THE NATIONAL PARTY OF REGIONAL PARTIES" category...or at least I think I did. The Conservatives used to be the paradigm of this, being a loose association of constituency parties, then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_and_Unionist_Central_Office_v_Burrell came along and muddied the waters, and (I think) Cameron tightened the organisation in the 2000s. So the answer is...um? This is why I omitted both the Labour and Conservative parties. The expanded version will cover this, if only to describe their power dynamic. @HYUFD probably knows more about this than me, btw. Which incidentally begs the question: who writes the Conservative manifesto in 2024? Ditto Labour?
@BartholomewRoberts, @MartinVegas
I'l repeat my answer of earlier so I have them all in one place. Regarding the Australian Coalition of Liberals and Nationals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_(Australia), aka the "Coalition". Yes I think you are right and I am wrong. I attempted to draw a distinction between the more informal US/UK alliances and pacts and the more formal European groups and fraktions, but it didn't really work which is why the CDU/CSU appears twice.
Each article has an expanded version, usually written some months afterwards, where I present a longer version backstage with the errors corrected. I'll include that there. This years expanded versions will be after November 2024 due to the elections and conferences.
Apologies to anybody I missed.
5.25 million votes would be 16% of a 32 million turnout (the number of votes at GE2019), so 18% on a lower turnout isn't implausible.
But I do think that the YouGov numbers for Reform are a bit high. That's what the by-elections suggested.
They are doomed and trying to out-fuk the Fukkers is their only move at this point.
In 1987 they got 22.6% of the vote and 22 seats.
The Tories are bouncing around at 20% in a lot of polls and I see very little incentive for your typical Tory voter to go out and vote for Rishi on July 4th.
Edit and all previous history says that when a national party gets below 25% of the vote actually winning seats gets to be very hard work..
It may just be Normalcy Bias, but when I look at the sort of seats needing to go Lab to get below 150 Con seats they are incredible. Incredible in the sense of unbelievable. Then I look at the by-elections and wonder if this really will be a wipeout greater than anything since the early Thirties.
"I Fuck The Tories
drink champagnewhen I'm happy and when I'm sad. Sometimes I Fuck The Tories when I'm alone. When I have company I consider Fucking The Tories obligatory. I trifle with Fucking The Tories if I'm not hungry and Fuck The Tories when I am. Otherwise, I never Fuck The Tories -- unless I'm awake."Entirely possible that could happen to the Tories this year. Would leave them on 51 MPs and probably only just the official opposition but potentially not it.
So I guess above 200 seats for the Tories is still possible. The polls might narrow, and there have been times in the past when the least favourable poll for Labour was the most accurate.
Grealish hasn't been at his best this season, but he has done well for England. Also he is top drawer coming on with 10 mins to go and drawing foul after foul.
He must be very confident in Eze if he's prepared to run without Graelish.
But I don't see Bowen and Dunk better than the ones been cut.
https://thecritic.co.uk/pro-parent-policies-can-raise-birth-rates/
If we use the YouGov 'old method' figures (Lab 45%, Con 18%, RefUK 18%, LDs 8%, Greens 6%) the LDs still come out of EC as the Official Opposition, on 8% of the vote. The irony of the Tory handwringing at a FPTP outcome like that would be delicious.
I would guess that there are quite a lot of people who don't even know which party won their seat at the last election.
I would think there are many more who don't know which party came second.
I think the percentage of people who are trying to estimate the state of the parties in their constituency by adjusting the result at the last election by reference to opinion polls is pretty small.
I think essentially all these ideas about opinion polls triggering fundamental changes in voting intention are nonsense.
It has Peter Firth as a SAS Colonel. Problem is, it's "Dominic Hyde"-era Firth, not the "Spooks" version, so he really hasn't got the gravitas.
Basically it's...well, here's some short reviews
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZEenkgyrmg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-kkwwWkhro
Or maybe its politically enraged badgers. Taking revenge for the cull. Maybe that's it.
Anecdote: a family member works in high end auto sales and business is good, because HNW individuals are not impacted and are still buying Lambos etc. However, he is inundated with calls from over financed people trying to offload Range Rovers/Land Rovers (which he generally doesn't deal in) because their mortgage costs have soared. These are the people who are going to swing some of these seats.
Pickford/Ramsdale
Walker/Konsa Stones/Dunk Guehi/Gomez Shaw/Trippier
Rice/Wharton Gallagher/Alexander-Arnold
Saka/Palmer Bellingham/Foden Gordon/Eze
Kane/Toney
With Henderson, Mainoo, Bowen and Watkins as extras
I still think you take Grealish ahead of Gordon and Bowen, as he has proved he can play a role at major tournaments.
Defence is shaky as hell. An injury / suspension or two, and it looks really ropey.
If so, how can Labour be 20-30% ahead of the Tories?
If you're a man of a certain age on the right of British politics and live in the North or Midlands, then the YouGov poll strongly suggests you're much more likely to meet people in your peer group who intend to vote Reform, rather than Tory.
If you're wavering between the two, this will likely influence you to vote Reform. If you were already intending to vote Reform this would be suicidal reinforcement of your choice, making it more likely to stick. If you were one of the remaining Tories, it might make you wonder whether you had it wrong.
I'm obviously biased, but if Palmer has been better than Saka this season, he must be bloody good.
But this is Southgate, we might end up with a back 5, and Bellingham and Rice playing defensive midfield roles.
Here's my trend prediction from November:
And here's my prediction from March:
Cannot underestimate the name recognition of Farage amongst the otherwise politically unengaged
Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.
Equals worst under Liz Truss.
Highest ever Reform UK %.
Westminster VI (5/6-6/6):
Labour 42% (-4)
Conservative 19% (-1)
Reform UK 17% (+3)
Lib Dem 12% (+2)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 31/5-2/6
And that risk becomes greater still if we do see a Faragasm or there are any last minute defections.
By contrast, Labour's strategy is to minimise risk rather than maximise gains, so they're less likely to do anything which might provoke a shift in the polling.
What I don't think he is so good at is man management. He had a go at being Crewe manager and he awful.
Everything Big Rish does seems to make it fucking worse.