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Parties – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
Parties – politicalbetting.com

• See “The Wikipedia Elections Edit War”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVIl_DJl5NU

Read the full story here

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    First!
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,454
    edited June 5
    Third.

    Thank-you for the header, which I have retitled:

    "Who's Who in the Political Party Zoo?"

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    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    edited June 5
    Third (grr 4th)
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,614
    Third! (dammit)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    Tory majority nailed on!
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329
    Smart topic. Agreement on terms is very hard when there aren't rules of the game, and as you note, the rules of the game don't force politicians to group themselves in the same way they did when they first offered themselves to electorates.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906
    Ooh, can I join in? Third!
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418

    Tory majority nailed on!

    CON new GE favourites? 😈
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,454
    edited June 5
    At least two (now three) people are the rabbit out of Lewis Carroll.

    https://youtu.be/ZOLpCWlsCjw?t=9

    Or even better, The Count from Sesame Street:

    https://youtu.be/2AoxCkySv34?t=8
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    My apologies for the lack of formatting.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    First random probability sample poll of the campaign from
    @joelwilliams74

    @VerianGroup
    . An 18 point Labour lead.

    Lab 41
    Con 23
    Lib Dems 12
    Reform 9
    Greens 8
    SNP 3

    Seems high for LLG, and low for ConRef.

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    rcs1000 said:

    First random probability sample poll of the campaign from
    @joelwilliams74

    @VerianGroup
    . An 18 point Labour lead.

    Lab 41
    Con 23
    Lib Dems 12
    Reform 9
    Greens 8
    SNP 3

    Seems high for LLG, and low for ConRef.

    What's a random probability sample poll?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    FPT

    Scott_xP said:

    Yes, this is exactly what the Tory Brains trust were hoping for after last night...

    @PGMcNamara

    🚨Punchy from @Keir_Starmer on **that** £2,000 tax line.

    About the Prime Minister @RishiSunak
    :

    “He resorted to LIES and he knew they were lies”

    https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1798370211541987724



    That's the clip for the evening news tonight...

    Just Stormer in pugilistic mood on Sky too. Possible Labour could actually win the news cycle. We'll see.
    They probably ought to try and change the subject. They are very vulnerable on tax, because everyone who has half a brain knows Labour will put them up, if only to pay for all the public sector pay increases.
    Maybe in this election, unlike 1992, what you describe is exactly what voters want.
    SKS is no Blair but equally he is no Kinnock - he's more like John Smith...

    Problem is Rishi isn't John Major he's Iain Duncan Smith...
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    rcs1000 said:

    First random probability sample poll of the campaign from
    @joelwilliams74

    @VerianGroup
    . An 18 point Labour lead.

    Lab 41
    Con 23
    Lib Dems 12
    Reform 9
    Greens 8
    SNP 3

    Seems high for LLG, and low for ConRef.

    What's a random probability sample poll?
    Numberwang
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    Saddened by the apparent lack of a Loony International.

    Unless you want to define Trump, Farage, Orban, etc. as such.

    Which I don't, much preferring actual global Sutchism.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210
    Thanks, @viewcode.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    edited June 5

    rcs1000 said:

    First random probability sample poll of the campaign from
    @joelwilliams74

    @VerianGroup
    . An 18 point Labour lead.

    Lab 41
    Con 23
    Lib Dems 12
    Reform 9
    Greens 8
    SNP 3

    Seems high for LLG, and low for ConRef.

    What's a random probability sample poll?
    https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-encyclopedia-random-probability-sampling

    A random probability sample is the "gold" standard of survey research. The maths behind a random probability sample are that it satisfies two criteria: every unit in the population has a chance of being selected for the sample; and the probability of selection for any unit in the population is either known or could be calculated. Effectively, everyone in the population has a known and non-zero chance of being selected.

    Comment -

    I actually can't see how you achieve it....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,035
    edited June 5
    Interesting but also the most confusing thread header I have ever read on PB.

    Will need to read it again to make sense of it all
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    FPT:

    I don't expect it but if there is a Tory gain in England my pick is Cramlington and Killingworth. This election will disguise it but there is a long-term trend towards Conservatives in the towns of Northern England, boundary changes have made a Tory gain in GE19 (Blyth Valley) into a notional Labour seat but only by less than 2% and that was despite a sizeable Brexit party vote (7.9%). The incumbent MP for much of the new constituency is standing again, the Labour candidate isn't a councillor or seems to have much of a profile. The polls would have to narrow and the Brexit/Reform vote will have to be squeezed but it doesn't seem completely impossible.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    Very interesting thread header @viewcode but isn't there a category missing: The Formally Constituted Party maybe? Or The Single Constitution Member's Party?

    Examples: all our main UK parties not otherwise mentioned in the article.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951
    viewcode said:

    I apologise in advance for the inherent boringness of what is effectively me giving a lecture in an article but I do have my reasons. Let me explain... :)

    This article was written because of the European Parliament elections, due to start tomorrow. Ladbrokes priced it up using the political groups of the European Parliament, which is stupid because they often change their name after the election. I think they should have used the political parties at the European level instead.

    That spark of irritation coincided with the YouTube discussion in the header and the discussion on PB about Mussolini's beginning, in which he used a list, and - bang - the article appeared.

    I want political betting to expand beyond its Anglosphere/European limits, but to do that we must familiarise ourselves with things like the party list and the one-party state. Hence this lecture.

    Sorry for being an arse, I'm sure there are multiple mistakes and I look forard to you pointing them out... :(

    No need to apologise: quite the reverse. Some excellent points and I learned a lot more than I usually do on PB, educational as it is.

    (As for being an arse, even if you were, that sometimes seems de rigeur on PB.)
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Saddened by the apparent lack of a Loony International.

    Unless you want to define Trump, Farage, Orban, etc. as such.

    Which I don't, much preferring actual global Sutchism.

    Surely Count Binface should start a global Bin Collective?
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,332
    eek said:

    FPT

    Scott_xP said:

    Yes, this is exactly what the Tory Brains trust were hoping for after last night...

    @PGMcNamara

    🚨Punchy from @Keir_Starmer on **that** £2,000 tax line.

    About the Prime Minister @RishiSunak
    :

    “He resorted to LIES and he knew they were lies”

    https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1798370211541987724



    That's the clip for the evening news tonight...

    Just Stormer in pugilistic mood on Sky too. Possible Labour could actually win the news cycle. We'll see.
    They probably ought to try and change the subject. They are very vulnerable on tax, because everyone who has half a brain knows Labour will put them up, if only to pay for all the public sector pay increases.
    Maybe in this election, unlike 1992, what you describe is exactly what voters want.
    SKS is no Blair but equally he is no Kinnock - he's more like John Smith...

    Problem is Rishi isn't John Major he's Iain Duncan Smith...
    Bit before my politically aware time but I think John Smith would have been an interesting PM. Your comparison with SKS could be a good one.

    I’d forgotten that Blair only stepped up because of Smith’s death.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951

    Very interesting thread header @viewcode but isn't there a category missing: The Formally Constituted Party maybe? Or The Single Constitution Member's Party?

    Examples: all our main UK parties not otherwise mentioned in the article.

    The likes of Slab and LabUK (and LLafur?) might also repay attention as a tulchan coo version of the above.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    An excellent threader. Thanks, Viewcode.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951
    ToryJim said:

    Saddened by the apparent lack of a Loony International.

    Unless you want to define Trump, Farage, Orban, etc. as such.

    Which I don't, much preferring actual global Sutchism.

    Surely Count Binface should start a global Bin Collective?
    Bin Collection surely.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 5
    In fact, the legislation was doomed from the beginning because of various loopholes, according to Dr Ed Hayes, the head of public affairs at The Kennel Club. He says the UK will continue to see “a supply of dogs that grow into XL bullies” because they will “continue to be produced by mating two legal dogs together”.

    A dog is considered an XL bully if an adult male is at least 20in at the withers (height at shoulder blades) and a female is 19in. But Hayes says breeders often pair two dogs that are half an inch under the limit, and therefore legal, which can produce a puppy that grows to be half an inch taller, making it an XL bully.

    Another reason why the ban has been ineffective is that Defra initially believed there were just 10,000 XL bullies in England and Wales, but the Government’s chief veterinary officer has since clarified there are about 55,000 registered under the new regime with a further 15,000 to 20,000 thought to be unregistered and on the streets illegally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/loopholes-in-xl-bully-ban-leave-public-exposed/

    Only out by a factor of 7.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    RobD said:

    Thanks, @viewcode.

    I never even knew Plato invented a clitophon
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010
    ToryJim said:

    Saddened by the apparent lack of a Loony International.

    Unless you want to define Trump, Farage, Orban, etc. as such.

    Which I don't, much preferring actual global Sutchism.

    Surely Count Binface should start a global Bin Collective?
    He would need General Waste on board.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    ToryJim said:

    Saddened by the apparent lack of a Loony International.

    Unless you want to define Trump, Farage, Orban, etc. as such.

    Which I don't, much preferring actual global Sutchism.

    Surely Count Binface should start a global Bin Collective?
    "Dumpsters of the World Unite! Join me in the Dustin of History!"
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    MartinVegasMartinVegas Posts: 29
    On topic,

    How would you define the Australian Coalition of Liberals and Nationals?

    Two distinct parties that have been in coalition for decades. Looking through your list, I don't see them fitting anywhere.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    Starliner launch eventually happened. Two astronauts on course to rendezvous with the ISS tomorrow.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    viewcode said:

    I apologise in advance for the inherent boringness of what is effectively me giving a lecture in an article but I do have my reasons. Let me explain... :)

    This article was written because of the European Parliament elections, due to start tomorrow. Ladbrokes priced it up using the political groups of the European Parliament, which is stupid because they often change their name after the election. I think they should have used the political parties at the European level instead.

    That spark of irritation coincided with the YouTube discussion in the header and the discussion on PB about Mussolini's beginning, in which he used a list, and - bang - the article appeared.

    I want political betting to expand beyond its Anglosphere/European limits, but to do that we must familiarise ourselves with things like the party list and the one-party state. Hence this lecture.

    Sorry for being an arse, I'm sure there are multiple mistakes and I look forard to you pointing them out... :(

    Forard?

    FORARD?

    I am absolutely disgusted at this spelling in your post. This entire thread, excellent as it is, should be taken down and consigned to a dustbin because of this below-the-line hideousness. Apologies, sir!
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951

    In fact, the legislation was doomed from the beginning because of various loopholes, according to Dr Ed Hayes, the head of public affairs at The Kennel Club. He says the UK will continue to see “a supply of dogs that grow into XL bullies” because they will “continue to be produced by mating two legal dogs together”.

    A dog is considered an XL bully if an adult male is at least 20in at the withers (height at shoulder blades) and a female is 19in. But Hayes says breeders often pair two dogs that are half an inch under the limit, and therefore legal, which can produce a puppy that grows to be half an inch taller, making it an XL bully.

    Another reason why the ban has been ineffective is that Defra initially believed there were just 10,000 XL bullies in England and Wales, but the Government’s chief veterinary officer has since clarified there are about 55,000 registered under the new regime with a further 15,000 to 20,000 thought to be unregistered and on the streets illegally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/loopholes-in-xl-bully-ban-leave-public-exposed/

    Only out by a factor of 7.

    Not in the least surprised, me.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    Sandpit said:

    Starliner launch eventually happened. Two astronauts on course to rendezvous with the ISS tomorrow.

    It's amusing to think back to when there was a race between Boeing and SpaceX, and a lot of people were thinking Boeing would win...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Talking of parties Alba has today announced it is going to stand in 20 constituencies. Never rains but it pours for the SNP these days.

    So far Alba have not really troubled the scorers unduly but as disillusionment grows with the SNP it has the potential to bleed votes in that direction.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    ToryJim said:

    Saddened by the apparent lack of a Loony International.

    Unless you want to define Trump, Farage, Orban, etc. as such.

    Which I don't, much preferring actual global Sutchism.

    Surely Count Binface should start a global Bin Collective?
    I really hope he’s found representatives to stand in hundreds of seats.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    In fact, the legislation was doomed from the beginning because of various loopholes, according to Dr Ed Hayes, the head of public affairs at The Kennel Club. He says the UK will continue to see “a supply of dogs that grow into XL bullies” because they will “continue to be produced by mating two legal dogs together”.

    A dog is considered an XL bully if an adult male is at least 20in at the withers (height at shoulder blades) and a female is 19in. But Hayes says breeders often pair two dogs that are half an inch under the limit, and therefore legal, which can produce a puppy that grows to be half an inch taller, making it an XL bully.

    Another reason why the ban has been ineffective is that Defra initially believed there were just 10,000 XL bullies in England and Wales, but the Government’s chief veterinary officer has since clarified there are about 55,000 registered under the new regime with a further 15,000 to 20,000 thought to be unregistered and on the streets illegally.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/loopholes-in-xl-bully-ban-leave-public-exposed/

    Only out by a factor of 7.

    It is ridiculous. Exterminate them
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951

    viewcode said:

    I apologise in advance for the inherent boringness of what is effectively me giving a lecture in an article but I do have my reasons. Let me explain... :)

    This article was written because of the European Parliament elections, due to start tomorrow. Ladbrokes priced it up using the political groups of the European Parliament, which is stupid because they often change their name after the election. I think they should have used the political parties at the European level instead.

    That spark of irritation coincided with the YouTube discussion in the header and the discussion on PB about Mussolini's beginning, in which he used a list, and - bang - the article appeared.

    I want political betting to expand beyond its Anglosphere/European limits, but to do that we must familiarise ourselves with things like the party list and the one-party state. Hence this lecture.

    Sorry for being an arse, I'm sure there are multiple mistakes and I look forard to you pointing them out... :(

    Forard?

    FORARD?

    I am absolutely disgusted at this spelling in your post. This entire thread, excellent as it is, should be taken down and consigned to a dustbin because of this below-the-line hideousness. Apologies, sir!
    Tut. Viewcode is being metaphorical, using hunting or nautical terminology. Perfectly acceptable.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    Sandpit said:

    Starliner launch eventually happened. Two astronauts on course to rendezvous with the ISS tomorrow.

    Here is Boeing's in-house coverage of the launch
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmoS_IVgWIo
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    One-man crime wave:

    "Man admits snatching 24 phones in an hour"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd116nk2p30o

    ISTR a story from a while ago in Cambridge, where the arrest of one burglar reduced the burglaries in the area of the city he lived in by a third.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,386
    edited June 5
    Sunak v Starmer on Sky in Grimsby next Wednesday.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877
    DavidL said:

    Talking of parties Alba has today announced it is going to stand in 20 constituencies. Never rains but it pours for the SNP these days.

    So far Alba have not really troubled the scorers unduly but as disillusionment grows with the SNP it has the potential to bleed votes in that direction.

    Can you see a list anywhere? There's ten on this page so far:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    Sandpit said:

    ToryJim said:

    Saddened by the apparent lack of a Loony International.

    Unless you want to define Trump, Farage, Orban, etc. as such.

    Which I don't, much preferring actual global Sutchism.

    Surely Count Binface should start a global Bin Collective?
    I really hope he’s found representatives to stand in hundreds of seats.
    Count Binface should combine with what remains (no much) of the ORMLP.

    ANew Official Raving Monster Loony - Dumpster United Party (NORML-DUMP).
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,117
    edited June 5
    Lol, yougov
    Lab 40
    Con 19
    Ref 17
    LD 10
    Green 7
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853
    edited June 5
    viewcode said:

    I apologise in advance for the inherent boringness of what is effectively me giving a lecture in an article but I do have my reasons. Let me explain... :)

    This article was written because of the European Parliament elections, due to start tomorrow. Ladbrokes priced it up using the political groups of the European Parliament, which is stupid because they often change their name after the election. I think they should have used the political parties at the European level instead.

    That spark of irritation coincided with the YouTube discussion in the header and the discussion on PB about Mussolini's beginning, in which he used a list, and - bang - the article appeared.

    I want political betting to expand beyond its Anglosphere/European limits, but to do that we must familiarise ourselves with things like the party list and the one-party state. Hence this lecture.

    Sorry for being an arse, I'm sure there are multiple mistakes and I look forard to you pointing them out... :(

    You couldn't be boring if you tried, Viewpoint, and I'm sure I'm typical of many here who are grateful for the thoughtful contributions from you and our various thread header writers.

    You must however excuse me for boringly drawing attention to an extraordinary day at the PO Inquiry. Alice Perkins always promised to be an intriguing witness but I would never have guessed it would be her evidence that pulled so many strands together.

    She's on again tomorrow, so if you can drag yourself away from the GE I strongly recommend that you catch up on today at the Inquiry and tune in tomorrow for more revelations (mostly unwitting ones) from Mrs Jack Straw.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    MikeL said:

    Sunak v Starmer on Sky in Grimsby next Wednesday.

    It’s not a head to head. The sky one is more head, than head to head, giving us one head at a time with interviewer in front an audience.

    Hope that helps.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318
    The Australian Coalition (Liberals [Tories in UK] and Nationals) is another style close to your Caucus definition but not quite meeting it.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,395
    edited June 5

    Lol, yougov
    Lab 40
    Con 19
    Ref 17
    LD 10
    Green 7

    Previous methodology has Tories and Reform tied on 18%!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,035
    edited June 5

    Lol, yougov
    Lab 40
    Con 19
    Ref 17
    LD 10
    Green 7

    Taken BEFORE yesterday's debate Yougov had Sunak winning but half of it includes when Farage announced he was returning as Reform leader.

    So in some respects the Tories will be relieved that even after that they were still ahead of Reform

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1798386225285312891
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    edited June 5
    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    The methodology tweak/herd instinct, very hard on Labour there. That 40% is a complete outlier compared to rest of the herd.

    I feel so sorry for yougov, getting fresh samples every time can result in rogue polls, but over a sequence should show less movement and prove accurate polling. They are not convincing me with these election polls. Remember whilst Savanta call London Mayor okay, yougovs call was more than 10% wrong, they seem to be playing with their products recipe ever since?
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    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    Remember these figures include a methodology change and Nigel returning to reform but if we compare to the MRP figures from Monday

    Lab 46%
    Con 21%
    Ref 15%
    Lib Dems 8%
    Grn 6%

    So Labour massively down, LDems up and Tories have traded 2% with Reform.

  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,332

    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    The methodology/herd instinct, very hard on Labour there. That 40% is a complete outlier compared to rest of the herd.
    ? Not sure I fully understand that.

    But run through electoral calculus and without tactical voting that would give Labour a 330 seat majority

    If Reform keep this up there are going to be some fairly outlandish outcomes under our FPTP
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    17% for ReFuk is just bonkers.

    But if the next poll shows ***CROSSOVER*** it will be funny as hell.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,532
    Reform on 9% or 17%. Take your pick.*

    Pretty horrible polling by somebody.

    *I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    Crossover is only a matter of time
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314
    HYUFD said:

    Lol, yougov
    Lab 40
    Con 19
    Ref 17
    LD 10
    Green 7

    Taken BEFORE yesterday's debate Yougov had Sunak winning but half of it includes when Farage announced he was returning as Reform leader.

    So in some respects the Tories will be relieved that even after that they were still ahead of Reform

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1798386225285312891
    It simply shows Sunak doesn't want to be PM
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318
    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    Not a snowballs chance in hell that the racists are going to get 17%

    Redistributing that more sensibly goes something like:

    🔴 LAB: 45%
    🔵 CON: 24%
    🟠 LDEM: 12%
    🟢 GRN: 7%
    🟣 REF: 5%

    And the Greens won't get 7% either so redistributing them:

    🔴 LAB: 46%
    🔵 CON: 25%
    🟠 LDEM: 12%
    🟢 GRN: 5%
    🟣 REF: 5%

    Looks rather more plausible.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853
    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    Remember these figures include a methodology change and Nigel returning to reform but if we compare to the MRP figures from Monday

    Lab 46%
    Con 21%
    Ref 15%
    Lib Dems 8%
    Grn 6%

    So Labour massively down, LDems up and Tories have traded 2% with Reform.

    Baxtered gives you 56 Con seats, in third place behind LDs on 63.

    Hmmm...plausible rather than likely.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,199
    MattW said:

    Third.

    Thank-you for the header, which I have retitled:

    "Who's Who in the Political Party Zoo?"

    Alternatively,

    (Parties, huh) Yeah!
    (What are they good for?) Absolutely nothing, uhuh.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863

    Reform on 9% or 17%. Take your pick.*

    Pretty horrible polling by somebody.

    *I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.

    I do find it very strange where these Reform voters are appearing from and whether they will actually go out and vote.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    We could be on for a freak election result with Reform winning a load of Red Wall seats and the Tories finishing behind the Lib Dems.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,374
    Sandpit said:

    ToryJim said:

    Saddened by the apparent lack of a Loony International.

    Unless you want to define Trump, Farage, Orban, etc. as such.

    Which I don't, much preferring actual global Sutchism.

    Surely Count Binface should start a global Bin Collective?
    I really hope he’s found representatives to stand in hundreds of seats.
    Monster Raving Loonies? I once went into a pub in Mid Wales which was the HQ of the local branch. Some very odd adverts round the bar.

    On topic, interesting read. I’ll have to come back to it. Can I suggest a group which I don’t think you mentioned; the Nationalists. Objective: Independence, but once elected are you Left or Right? Once independence, the primary objective, is attained, the party almost certainly splits, or descends into infighting. See the ANC.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146

    One-man crime wave:

    "Man admits snatching 24 phones in an hour"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd116nk2p30o

    ISTR a story from a while ago in Cambridge, where the arrest of one burglar reduced the burglaries in the area of the city he lived in by a third.

    Same with the bike gang COLP caught where bike theft declined by 90% in the months after. Pareto principle applies to criminals as well. Doesn't take much in the way of resources to massively improve peoples' lives by locking up the worst criminals (or in an ideal world dumping them on south georgia with a dodgy fishing line).
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120

    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    Not a snowballs chance in hell that the racists are going to get 17%

    Redistributing that more sensibly goes something like:

    🔴 LAB: 45%
    🔵 CON: 24%
    🟠 LDEM: 12%
    🟢 GRN: 7%
    🟣 REF: 5%

    And the Greens won't get 7% either so redistributing them:

    🔴 LAB: 46%
    🔵 CON: 25%
    🟠 LDEM: 12%
    🟢 GRN: 5%
    🟣 REF: 5%

    Looks rather more plausible.
    Your tinkering is even worse than yougovs. You are lobbing off green bits, and giving none of the green to the libdems?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120

    Reform on 9% or 17%. Take your pick.*

    Pretty horrible polling by somebody.

    *I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.

    Shy Reformers?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,010

    HYUFD said:

    Lol, yougov
    Lab 40
    Con 19
    Ref 17
    LD 10
    Green 7

    Taken BEFORE yesterday's debate Yougov had Sunak winning but half of it includes when Farage announced he was returning as Reform leader.

    So in some respects the Tories will be relieved that even after that they were still ahead of Reform

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1798386225285312891
    It simply shows Sunak doesn't want to be PM
    Nonsense! He's gonna wipe the floor with Labour!
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318
    edited June 5

    We could be on for a freak election result with Reform winning a load of Red Wall seats and the Tories finishing behind the Lib Dems.

    Reform likely won't win any seats. 1 or 2 at the most, in the South not the Red Wall most probable.

    Tories finishing behind the Lib Dems is of course extremely unlikely but far more likely than Reform winning loads of seats.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863

    Reform on 9% or 17%. Take your pick.*

    Pretty horrible polling by somebody.

    *I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.

    Shy Reformers?
    I think it's more a "plague on all your houses / but in reality won't vote"
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,431

    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    Remember these figures include a methodology change and Nigel returning to reform but if we compare to the MRP figures from Monday

    Lab 46%
    Con 21%
    Ref 15%
    Lib Dems 8%
    Grn 6%

    So Labour massively down, LDems up and Tories have traded 2% with Reform.

    Baxtered gives you 56 Con seats, in third place behind LDs on 63.

    Hmmm...plausible rather than likely.
    Well, we simply haven't a clue. At this stage, it looks like the difference between 1997 and near-total collapse for the Tories is whether or not the large slice of their vote that appears to have defected to Reform in a hissy fit comes back or not. Past performance suggests the Reform vote will melt away like the snow in Spring, but...
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853
    DM_Andy said:

    Lucky for Sunak that YouGov did change their methodology. Here's the results (compared to 29-30 May)

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49626-general-election-2024-how-have-our-methodology-changes-affected-voting-intention
    Labour 45% (-1)
    Conservative 18% (-3)
    Reform UK 18% (+3)
    Lib Dem 8% (+0)
    Green 6% (+0)

    Thanks Andy.

    Intuitively and based on nothing more than a feeling in my bones I'd say the results from the new methodology are the more credible.

    I would certainly expect lower Labour and higher LD scores than under the old method.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,332
    Correct me if I’m wrong but because of our electoral system, unless Labour were to drop to mid-30’s (highly unlikely) the real hit of ongoing polls like this would be to the Conservatives.

    19% is 7% below the lowest poll in the month before the 1997 General Election.

    Anyway, I’ll be interested to see what happens with pollsters who haven’t changed their methodology and in the days after the Farage announcement and first tv debate.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314

    HYUFD said:

    Lol, yougov
    Lab 40
    Con 19
    Ref 17
    LD 10
    Green 7

    Taken BEFORE yesterday's debate Yougov had Sunak winning but half of it includes when Farage announced he was returning as Reform leader.

    So in some respects the Tories will be relieved that even after that they were still ahead of Reform

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1798386225285312891
    It simply shows Sunak doesn't want to be PM
    Nonsense! He's gonna wipe the floor with Labour!
    You think Starmer's THAT bad ?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,199
    edited June 5
    .
    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    I apologise in advance for the inherent boringness of what is effectively me giving a lecture in an article but I do have my reasons. Let me explain... :)

    This article was written because of the European Parliament elections, due to start tomorrow. Ladbrokes priced it up using the political groups of the European Parliament, which is stupid because they often change their name after the election. I think they should have used the political parties at the European level instead.

    That spark of irritation coincided with the YouTube discussion in the header and the discussion on PB about Mussolini's beginning, in which he used a list, and - bang - the article appeared.

    I want political betting to expand beyond its Anglosphere/European limits, but to do that we must familiarise ourselves with things like the party list and the one-party state. Hence this lecture.

    Sorry for being an arse, I'm sure there are multiple mistakes and I look forard to you pointing them out... :(

    Forard?

    FORARD?

    I am absolutely disgusted at this spelling in your post. This entire thread, excellent as it is, should be taken down and consigned to a dustbin because of this below-the-line hideousness. Apologies, sir!
    Tut. Viewcode is being metaphorical, using hunting or nautical terminology. Perfectly acceptable.
    Wouldn’t that be forrard ?
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Reform on 9% or 17%. Take your pick.*

    Pretty horrible polling by somebody.

    *I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.

    Yeah something is going on. I just can’t see Reform doing that well. I suspect that some level of systemic poll error is occurring but who knows. I could get them to 7-9% but 17 is a stretch and outpolling the Tories I can’t see at all. Unfortunately from here on in it’s going to be impossible for the issues to get a look in as all the journalists orgasm over a potentially dodgy narrative.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318

    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    Not a snowballs chance in hell that the racists are going to get 17%

    Redistributing that more sensibly goes something like:

    🔴 LAB: 45%
    🔵 CON: 24%
    🟠 LDEM: 12%
    🟢 GRN: 7%
    🟣 REF: 5%

    And the Greens won't get 7% either so redistributing them:

    🔴 LAB: 46%
    🔵 CON: 25%
    🟠 LDEM: 12%
    🟢 GRN: 5%
    🟣 REF: 5%

    Looks rather more plausible.
    Your tinkering is even worse than yougovs. You are lobbing off green bits, and giving none of the green to the libdems?
    Oops, typo, I added 2 to the LDs from Reform and intended to add one to the LDs from the Greens.

    🔴 LAB: 46%
    🔵 CON: 25%
    🟠 LDEM: 13%
    🟢 GRN: 5%
    🟣 REF: 5%
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    edited June 5
    pigeon said:

    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    Remember these figures include a methodology change and Nigel returning to reform but if we compare to the MRP figures from Monday

    Lab 46%
    Con 21%
    Ref 15%
    Lib Dems 8%
    Grn 6%

    So Labour massively down, LDems up and Tories have traded 2% with Reform.

    Baxtered gives you 56 Con seats, in third place behind LDs on 63.

    Hmmm...plausible rather than likely.
    Well, we simply haven't a clue. At this stage, it looks like the difference between 1997 and near-total collapse for the Tories is whether or not the large slice of their vote that appears to have defected to Reform in a hissy fit comes back or not. Past performance suggests the Reform vote will melt away like the snow in Spring, but...
    Melting away doesn't help them as @BartholomewRoberts points out. if 60% of Reform voters are really none voters all that does is give everyone else 10% more votes so the Labour sit on 44% and the Tories sit on 22% or so...

    The question is really are those Reform voters likely to vote Conservative - and I just don't see it..
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,614
    @BartholomewRoberts, @MartinVegas

    Regarding the Australian Coalition of Liberals and Nationals, aka the "Coalition". Yes I think you are right and I am wrong. I attempted to draw a distinction between the more informal US/UK alliances and pacts and the more formal European groups and fraktions, but it didn't really work which is why the CDU/CSU appears twice.

    Each article has an expanded version, usually written some months afterwards, where I present a longer version backstage with the errors corrected. I'll include that there.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_(Australia)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,199

    Reform on 9% or 17%. Take your pick.*

    Pretty horrible polling by somebody.

    *I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.

    How many constituencies have you been doorstepping, though ?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120
    Heathener said:

    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    The methodology/herd instinct, very hard on Labour there. That 40% is a complete outlier compared to rest of the herd.
    ? Not sure I fully understand that.

    But run through electoral calculus and without tactical voting that would give Labour a 330 seat majority

    If Reform keep this up there are going to be some fairly outlandish outcomes under our FPTP
    “ ? Not sure I fully understand that.”

    It’s perfectly straightforward, polling firms are murmuring so they personally stand less chance of being eaten by the free election owls (though I prefer goats for votes). yougov idea of murmuring is report lower Lab share than anyone and a Ref share so high no one on earth believes. Not even visitors to the planet.

    The answer is it doesn’t make sense.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Reform on 9% or 17%. Take your pick.*

    Pretty horrible polling by somebody.

    *I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.

    Shy Reformers?
    They aren’t much given to shyness.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    I apologise in advance for the inherent boringness of what is effectively me giving a lecture in an article but I do have my reasons. Let me explain... :)

    This article was written because of the European Parliament elections, due to start tomorrow. Ladbrokes priced it up using the political groups of the European Parliament, which is stupid because they often change their name after the election. I think they should have used the political parties at the European level instead.

    That spark of irritation coincided with the YouTube discussion in the header and the discussion on PB about Mussolini's beginning, in which he used a list, and - bang - the article appeared.

    I want political betting to expand beyond its Anglosphere/European limits, but to do that we must familiarise ourselves with things like the party list and the one-party state. Hence this lecture.

    Sorry for being an arse, I'm sure there are multiple mistakes and I look forard to you pointing them out... :(

    Forard?

    FORARD?

    I am absolutely disgusted at this spelling in your post. This entire thread, excellent as it is, should be taken down and consigned to a dustbin because of this below-the-line hideousness. Apologies, sir!
    Tut. Viewcode is being metaphorical, using hunting or nautical terminology. Perfectly acceptable.
    Wouldn’t that be forrard ?
    Variant spelling, for maritime and hunting.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    ToryJim said:

    Reform on 9% or 17%. Take your pick.*

    Pretty horrible polling by somebody.

    *I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.

    Yeah something is going on. I just can’t see Reform doing that well. I suspect that some level of systemic poll error is occurring but who knows. I could get them to 7-9% but 17 is a stretch and outpolling the Tories I can’t see at all. Unfortunately from here on in it’s going to be impossible for the issues to get a look in as all the journalists orgasm over a potentially dodgy narrative.
    Funny thing is that the narrative of Conservatives being eaten by RFM is more likely than not to lead to further bleed to Reform, which could make their numbers more real? If you're one of the 40% odd of the Tory membership who like Farage and don't like Sunak there's now no reason to not jump.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120

    DM_Andy said:

    Lucky for Sunak that YouGov did change their methodology. Here's the results (compared to 29-30 May)

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49626-general-election-2024-how-have-our-methodology-changes-affected-voting-intention
    Labour 45% (-1)
    Conservative 18% (-3)
    Reform UK 18% (+3)
    Lib Dem 8% (+0)
    Green 6% (+0)

    Thanks Andy.

    Intuitively and based on nothing more than a feeling in my bones I'd say the results from the new methodology are the more credible.

    I would certainly expect lower Labour and higher LD scores than under the old method.
    Labour lowest share in the herd?

    Weird.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248

    DM_Andy said:

    Lucky for Sunak that YouGov did change their methodology. Here's the results (compared to 29-30 May)

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49626-general-election-2024-how-have-our-methodology-changes-affected-voting-intention
    Labour 45% (-1)
    Conservative 18% (-3)
    Reform UK 18% (+3)
    Lib Dem 8% (+0)
    Green 6% (+0)

    Thanks Andy.

    Intuitively and based on nothing more than a feeling in my bones I'd say the results from the new methodology are the more credible.

    I would certainly expect lower Labour and higher LD scores than under the old method.
    And the £2000 per household question is...

    Where are those extra Lib Dem voters?

    Scattered uniformly, quite good news for the Conservatives and bad for Labour.

    In the right places, very very bad indeed.

    See 1997.

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286

    Lol, yougov
    Lab 40
    Con 19
    Ref 17
    LD 10
    Green 7

    Bloody hell. That was quick!
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314
    Gething gone
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,431
    eek said:

    pigeon said:

    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    Remember these figures include a methodology change and Nigel returning to reform but if we compare to the MRP figures from Monday

    Lab 46%
    Con 21%
    Ref 15%
    Lib Dems 8%
    Grn 6%

    So Labour massively down, LDems up and Tories have traded 2% with Reform.

    Baxtered gives you 56 Con seats, in third place behind LDs on 63.

    Hmmm...plausible rather than likely.
    Well, we simply haven't a clue. At this stage, it looks like the difference between 1997 and near-total collapse for the Tories is whether or not the large slice of their vote that appears to have defected to Reform in a hissy fit comes back or not. Past performance suggests the Reform vote will melt away like the snow in Spring, but...
    Melting away doesn't help them as @BartholomewRoberts points out. if 60% of Reform voters are really none voters all that does is give everyone else 10% more votes so the Labour sit on 44% and the Tories sit on 22% or so...

    The question is really are those Reform voters likely to vote Conservative - and I just don't see it..
    I will clarify: I was indeed implying that the Conservative situation would likely only get much better if the voters threatening to turn out for Reform vote for them in large numbers instead. Clearly if they don't back either party then this doesn't help Sunak at all.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884

    Lol, yougov
    Lab 40
    Con 19
    Ref 17
    LD 10
    Green 7

    WTF?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Gething loses VONC by 1 vote.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,315

    ToryJim said:

    🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK is now just two points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll

    🔴 LAB: 40%
    🔵 CON: 19%
    🟣 REF: 17%
    🟠 LDEM: 10%
    🟢 GRN: 7%

    2,144 adults online
    3 June -4 June

    Not a snowballs chance in hell that the racists are going to get 17%

    Redistributing that more sensibly goes something like:

    🔴 LAB: 45%
    🔵 CON: 24%
    🟠 LDEM: 12%
    🟢 GRN: 7%
    🟣 REF: 5%

    And the Greens won't get 7% either so redistributing them:

    🔴 LAB: 46%
    🔵 CON: 25%
    🟠 LDEM: 12%
    🟢 GRN: 5%
    🟣 REF: 5%

    Looks rather more plausible.
    Leaving aside your 50/50 reallocation of RefUK votes, a lot depends where the minor parties actually stand candidates. They talk a good game but by all accounts, even the Conservative Party was caught on the hop by Rishi's early election and is struggling to get candidates in place by Friday's deadline.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877
    ToryJim said:

    Reform on 9% or 17%. Take your pick.*

    Pretty horrible polling by somebody.

    *I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.

    Shy Reformers?
    They aren’t much given to shyness.
    No, I think there's something to be said here. People are conflict averse. It could just be people answering the door, seeing a blue rosette with the greeting "hi, my name's Mark, and I'm with the local Conservative party..." and them just saying "ah, well, I voted for Boris so I'll vote for you again" to be polite.

    Or maybe he's right and they are rarer than the polling is claiming.

    Both deserve consideration. What would be really interesting would be if we heard from a Lib Dem activist in the same area. If they were getting loads of "fuck you I'm voting for Reform" when they see the orange ribbon, then we'd know.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    edited June 5
    DM_Andy said:

    FPT:

    I don't expect it but if there is a Tory gain in England my pick is Cramlington and Killingworth. This election will disguise it but there is a long-term trend towards Conservatives in the towns of Northern England, boundary changes have made a Tory gain in GE19 (Blyth Valley) into a notional Labour seat but only by less than 2% and that was despite a sizeable Brexit party vote (7.9%). The incumbent MP for much of the new constituency is standing again, the Labour candidate isn't a councillor or seems to have much of a profile. The polls would have to narrow and the Brexit/Reform vote will have to be squeezed but it doesn't seem completely impossible.

    It isn't.
    But the seat isn't the successor to Blyth Valley at all. It's about half of it (Cramlington), although the more Tory half.
    The rest of it (more than half) isn't even town. It's from strongly Labour N Tyneside, and Newcastle.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286

    Reform on 9% or 17%. Take your pick.*

    Pretty horrible polling by somebody.

    *I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.

    Not horrible polling, the actual situation could be 12.5%.
This discussion has been closed.